Well, it was originally called Lisnagarvey before it was burnt during the 1653 rebellion by those eh, rebels. (Can’t call them Fenians as the Fenians hadn’t appeared yet). Anyhow lets look at how things are changing in this particular corner of the blue sky’d unionist paradise. The 2011 election results are as follows with the 2011 Census results below:
The Catholic population here is very concentrated in certain areas and interestingly these are the only wards to show a decrease in the catholic percentage, namely Twinbrook, Colin Glen, Kilwee and Poleglass. All overwhelmingly catholic areas.
Every other ward has seen a net increase in the catholic and a decrease in the protestant percentages. The highlights are Ballymacoss, Harmony Hill, Moira, Derryaghy………..actually, I give up, the rest are all highlights. Whether this will translate into extra votes and seats remains to be seen. I can’t actually see where this might happen just yet but the trend is confirmed. Things are moving solidly in only one direction. The grey skies so feared by certain politicians in years past are gathering.
Newtownabbey is made up of parts of both East Antrim and North Belfast Westminster constituencies. In the 2011 council elections the party strengths
Picture Courtesy of ARK website
were:DUP 12, UUP 5, Alliance 5, SF 2 and SDLP 1. It may surprise people therefore that the census returned the following results, clearly alliance are doing very well here. primarily at the expense of nationalist representation.
Catholics 20.9% (+19.4%)
Protestants 69.4% (- 5.7%)
The actual figures are:
Catholic
Protestant
Other
None
2011
19204
57688
1006
7241
Change since 2001
3717
-3274
651
4054
Below is the Ward by Ward changes since 2001. Of the 25 Wards below all except 3 have shown an increase in catholic background residents. Mallusk is the most striking to my eye. I wonder how Nigel Dodd’s outreach efforts are progressing? On this evidence he’ll need some success on that front.
I am grateful to Malkee for providing the following interactive map which details the results of the 2011 Census. There is a fair bit of clicking, box ticking and filtering required but it is definitely worth the trouble. It has been produced by the All Island Research Observatory who I have to admit I’d never heard of! They are based at NUI Maynooth. Have fun with it…..
“We’re delighted that Nigel Lutton will be an agreed unionist candidate in the Mid Ulster by-election.”
John McAllistar has resigned tonight. Immediate effect. Live. On the BBC. All eyes will be on Basil McCrea next. Mike Nesbitt is starting to make Tom Elliot look competent. That is some achievement. Perhaps the only achievement I can think of so far on his part.
Not a word from the UUP who’s press office have obviously outsourced their function to, eh, the DUP press office. Fun and games in Unionism has given way to farce. The UUP have now moved from the position of contesting marginal seats where a possible unionist unity candidate may win to one where they have no chance whatsoever. This will be interesting. It is a surrender of any pretence on the part of the UUP that there is any difference between them and the DUP. Indeed why is there any longer a need for a UUP?
Nesbitt is surely a busted flush at this point. This is decision time for Basil McCrea. If he doesn’t seize this moment it will be gone. My guess is he will be gone within in 24 hours. Possibly, as predicted here earlier, to realign Unionism.
UPDATE: The UUP have made this announcement on their website. No comment whatsoever on their latest resignation. The sound of contented cooing from the DUP nest is palpable in my opinion. Unionist unity may be closer than TV Mike thinks.
FURTHER UPDATE: Basil McCrea has resigned from the party. Announced on the Nolan Show on the BBC. Friday morning Feb 15th
Due to the imminent arrival of Miss Bangordub aged 11 I may have limited posting and commenting ability over the next few days. Barring major events such as Fitzjameshorse starting a new American Civil war, Basil declaring himself as the TUV candidate for the mid ulster seat or Sammy McNally, Fear Feirsteach and Factual forming a new political party, I will be quietly enjoying myself at the Titanic centre, Eddie Irvines racing centre and anything else you lot may suggest. She is one of the girls above although I won’t say which one.
Where to start then as so much has went on over the past week? So, on Thursday a ‘deal’ of sorts was hatched out whereby the Fine Gael led government was able to bring about legislation that in effect caused the IBRC (Irish Banking Resolution Company, comprising Anglo-Irish Bank and the Irish Nationwide Building Society) to be put into liquidation. IBRC had in it’s possession a promissory note of approximately €31 billion whereby the government was making payments of approximately €3.1 billion per annum, the next installment was due in March as well as another due in May as last year’s payment was delayed, all of which was acting as a massive drag on the budget, the economy and the nation as a whole. In the middle of the night, the zombie bank was gotten rid of, consigned to history, but where does this leave the country in general?
The promissory note itself came about because the government needed to inject cash into the banks that have now become a part of the IBRC, however, it was unable to finance this with money gathered through the bond market as it had effectively been blocked off from this due to insanely large coupons (interest rates) being placed on Irish government debt, that and the National Pension Reserve had already been exhausted back in 2010. Issuing the note meant the government did not have to produce €30+ billion there and then, a sum it clearly did not have and would have great difficulty getting. With this note, the IBRC would be able to use this as security to borrow from the Irish Central Bank (ICB) via the ELA or Exceptional Liquidity Assistance facility which is an exceptionally expensive way to finance debt (8.2%) with the state paying back approx. €48 billion between now and 2031. So, in 2010 the Fianna Fail government spoke to the ECB about the whole venture, plucked this ‘solution’ out of somewhere to which the ECB said it could run with this.
As an aside, it should be noted that a promissory note, or simply a ‘note’ is nota contract or an IOU as it contains a specific promise to pay on demand the sum of the note rather than acknowledging a debt owed, in effect it is just like a bank note that you may (!) have in your purse or wallet now. A simple explanation of what a ‘note’ is can be found here.
Now, the Central Bank will take the promissory notes with NAMA buying some of IBRC’s collateral held by the Central Bank by issuing some more NAMA bonds and NAMA will then sell these assets off by the end of the year (more on this issue to follow in later posts on my own site). The government will now issue bonds for a period of around 40 years at a coupon of 3% as opposed to the 8.2% it was previously. Where this is hopefully a good deal for us is that all we will do is pay interest on the bonds until 2038, thus easing the cost to the state of having to pay down any principal too, or so it is supposed to go. Further, as time goes by, inflation should make the sum a lot more manageable and who knows, by 2038 €30 billion should be worth a lot less than it is today thus making any payment of principle manageable. Both an Taoiseach, Enda Kenny and the Minister of Finance, Michael Noonan, have used the rather apple pie comparison of moving from have an expensive over draft to a mortgage instead, and that is kind of what’s happening here, or at least supposed to happen. While we may pay more money as a sum total in the long run, that really won’t matter due to the length of time this has been spread out over and inflation in the long run.
Further, we had two organisations (NAMA and IBRC) administering a book of poorly performing assets and loans which meant a duplication of services in a state that can ill afford it. IBRC costs about €320 million pa to run, while NAMA costs about €130 million. A large part of the 1,000 odd staff at IBRC will be made redundant with a number being transferred over to work for NAMA, however, while I don’t like making assumptions I do expect the board and senior management to receive cushy redundancy packages, something I do not expect for the non-senior staff (probably statutory redundancies for them).
This deal also means that the NTMA will have it a bit easier when managing the raising of finances as it should require some €20 billion less over the coming decade and we will hopefully have around €1 billion pa of austerity in each budget. Will we see some form of small, targeted stimulus from the government now that it has a stay of execution with the finances? Who knows? I suspect probably not, the serious looking foreigners you see at night eating and drinking in and around Merrion Square and St Stephens Green will want to make sure that there is no real or perceived loosening of determination to ‘reform’ the economy and the current coalition of Fine Gael and especially Labour must be very tempted to throw a few treats to the electorate if their current slide in the polls is to continue all the way to polling day. So, expect some kind of smoke and mirrors and violence with figures and accountancy rules between now and polling day with implied permission from the Troika’s representatives when you see a government minister outside the opening of a creche, a large centralised Garda station, a new specialist department in a hospital or some capital spending like the digging of a sod to signal an extension to the LUAS line telling us that we are back on track, economically speaking. The guys over at the incredibly sharp NAMA Wine Lake have went over the figures and how the government is already ‘fibbing’ and understating the room for cushioning austerity and providing some form of a stimulus, who’d have thunk it?!
So, what issues might arise from this whole ‘deal’ then? Well, the legislation winding up IBRC was a rushed affair and there already have been a number of questions asked about whether certain parts of it are even constitutional. This is something I will discuss in a further piece once I have reviewed the legislation in full, however, I would be welcome to assistance with this by way of crowd sourcing or someone’s thoughts on the matter away from the blog before posting something, email is footballcliches1@gmail.com. Further, we have a number of cases ongoing where the IBRC was a party to proceedings, most famously against the Quinns, what happens now? The IBRC had loans outstanding with a number of borrowers such as Dennis O’Brien, Applegreen and Topaz fuel groups or Arnotts Department store, will they be able to refinance their loans over the next 6 months because if not their loans go up for sale to third parties or are transferred to NAMA who have a notoriety for being a lot more ‘forensic’ with their book. Again, I will look at this in more detail over the coming days.
For me though, while I do not wish to belittle the achievement of the government, they have worked long and hard to bring this about and have to a certain extent staked their future on success, I do wonder how big a deal it is in the grand scheme of things, I mean, it barely registered on some sites that I view like the Guardian, the Telegraph or over on the Beeb. The ever interesting and prescient David McWilliams helps to place this deal (or at the time he wrote it, suspected deal) in some kind of perspective. Let’s all be honest here for a moment, what is €31 billion in the grand scheme of things? The ECB is not actually that concerned about what goes on in Ireland as we think it is or should be, it is far more concerned about what goes on in bigger countries, ones that have an impact, like Japan, China or the United States and how this may effect the whole Eurozone.
At the moment we are in the middle of a lot of deflation or stagflation where prices either decrease or stay as they are. People put off buying goods now that they think will be cheaper in the future, things become cheaper and cheaper, meanwhile more people are out of work meaning less money is around to spend, less goods are bought and deflation continues, however, our debts increase and are increasingly difficult to service. Do you know of anywhere where this may be happening right now? Now I want you all to remember that the modus operandi of the ECB is the stabilisation of inflation and prices across the Eurozone, nothing more, and certainly not stimulation of economies.
‘Europe and the European project can’t survive a decade of deflation. The first thing to go when politicians know they have to reflate the economy is central bank independence. Therefore, with money being printed everywhere and currencies such as the yen, the dollar and sterling involved in competitive devaluations, the ECB’s ideology is hardening today to protect itself from political interference tomorrow.
Therefore, Ireland is caught in the teeth of an ideological battle for the future of central banking, which is why what happens in Tokyo is much more important than anything Irish politicians say.‘
Essentially, this deal is not about Ireland, it is about the ongoing independence of the ECB. The ECB like many central banks may be seen to be part of the problem (see the Bank of England and its rather protracted response to the financial crisis. How many board members didn’t want to lower interest rates or delay it? Jenkins I find to be quite interesting on the BoE in general) and politicians will see curbing it’s independence and interfering in monetary policy as part of the solution. They’ve decided to avoid this problem by dealing with Ireland now and being pragmatic as opposed to dogmatic, nothing more.
I’ll finish up with some thoughts and observations from McWilliams who I think tells us where we are right now and where this may go in the future:
‘The ECB was created by politicians. It will be brought to heel by politicians. That is what democracies do. The last time we had independent central bankers try to threaten social peace in an era of deflation and high unemployment, central bankers lost. That was the Great Depression and the Gold Standard. The lessons are there for anyone with a grasp of history.
This brings us to the promissory note. We know that keeping a dead bank alive with real money makes no sense, but we are told that the consequences of not paying the money will be dire. But what are they, these consequences?
Here I write as a former central banker, and I can tell you the consequences are likely to be minimal. We know the ECB won’t push the little red button and detonate the nuclear option. It didn’t do that in Greece. It knows failure in Ireland will bring the Japanese solution closer, so that will be avoided at all costs. ATMs will continue to work. Life will go on and if you believe that the Irish State will be around in one hundred thousand years or one million years, we will pay back the promissory note in installments of €30,000 a year. We would still be paying it. We would have simply adjusted the terms of the IOU.
I am indebted to a regular reader (Faha) who has kindly collated the Ward information into the Westminster constituencies. I am sure some of you will be very interested in the results as set out below. I have presented the information as simply as possible with the 2011 results and the percentage change since 2001 below.
The highlights?
North Belfast without doubt is going to be a knife edge battle at the next election. The swing is around 10% in ten years from protestant to catholic population although in common with every other constituency the rise in those of “none” must be factored in. East Belfast is particularly striking in it’s changes. An 11.6% drop in the protestant population is a huge figure.
Lagan Valley too is very interesting. A 15% swing requires some further analysis.
Every constituency recorded an increase in “Other” and “None”. The Protestant percentage declined in every constituency except West Belfast! The Catholic percentage rose in every constituency with the exceptions of West Belfast, South Down, Newry and Foyle, all overwhelmingly nationalist areas. This suggests to me that a large proportion of the “None” designation may, in fact, be nationalists.
If, at the next general election, Alliance hold onto East Belfast and Nigel is defeated in North Belfast we would be looking at 9 Nationalist seats, 1 Alliance, 1 Independent and 7 Unionist.
Horseman referred to Fermanagh as unionisms alamo in terms of unity, ucunf (remember that?) and the future of the west. There are no surprises here.
The trends are a continuing greening of the constituency. The swing is a 3.1% towards catholics and a further erosion of the unionist vote as seen in recent elections. The dreary steeples are receeding from the grey skies towards the clear blue water of a new republic. Mr E C Ferguson would be ill at ease with these figures but they are, nevertheless, the facts.
A certain blogger, since passed on, would recognise the accuracy of his predictions and, perhaps, permit a wry smile, to pass his lips.
Ah, my favourite constituency. North Down is the rebel constituency. Full of well educated, non conformists who refuse to do what we’re told. I personally am friendly with people of a unionist background who are quite republican in their views and refuse to be told who to vote for. Fantastic. It is also populated by an overwhelmingly unionist and pretty elderly electorate. We all know that it is the pensioners who vote in the greatest numbers so that is why the age profiles will be crucial here when they are released
This is the most Unionist constituency in this part of the world and as the unionist migration to the east continues it will remain so for some time to come. I have a long and ongoing dispute (good natured I may add) with FJH regarding the potential for nationalism here. At this time there is not a single nationalist councillor much to my annoyance.
And so to the figures. Holywood and Bangor West are generally regarded as the nationalist areas albeit as minorities. Get ready for a major shock.
There are 25 wards. In not one are catholics a majority. Never have been.
In 21 of those 25 Wards the catholic percentage has grown since the last census.
UPDATE: I should add that the percentage actual 2011 figures are as follows:
Catholic
Protestant
Other
None
10681
57809
914
9533
13.5%
73.2%
1.2%
12.1%
The changes are below. I deserve a pint now and if FJH dares to argue as to why a nationalist seat is not there for the taking I will move to Craigavon and start a party of my own 😉
