AntrimNewtownabbey-MidEastAntrim,
Belfast,
ArmaghBanbridgeCraigavon-NewryMourneDown,
FermanaghOmagh-MidUlster,
CausewayCoastGlens-DerryStrabane.
District Council 2019
#5 Fermanagh-Omagh & Mid Ulster
West Tyrone- 6 seats Quota 14.7%
2019 Electorate
Catholic 66.5%
Protestant 32%
None/Other 1.5%
Candidates
1 DUP 1 UUP 1 SDLP 4 SF 1 Aontu
2014 Results
SF 44.0% 3 seats
SDLP 15.9% 1 seat
Ind nationalist 0.9%
Alliance 2.3%
DUP 19.5% 1 seat
UUP 17.4% 1 seat
The demographics indicate 2 unionist quotas here. Nationalist turnout was much lower than unionist turnout in 2014 (56% vs 68%) but even with the higher nationalist turnout in the 2017 Assembly election there will still be 2 unionist quotas. The SDLP vote will decline but should be at a quota. I believe Aontu will win a seat here as the 3 SF candidates in 2014 were not evenly balanced and one could be eliminated. There are 4 SF candidates in 2019 which will make the balancing even more difficult.
Prediction
1 DUP 1 UUP 1 SDLP 2 SF 1 Aontu
Change -1 SF +1 Aontu
Mid Tyrone- 6 seats Quota 14.3%
2019 Electorate
Catholic 74%
Protestant 25%
None/Other 1%
Candidates
1 DUP 1 UUP 1 Alliance 1 SDLP 5 SF 1 Aontu I Independent
2014 Results
SF 57.3% 4 seats
SDLP 12.7% 1 seat
Green 2.7%
Alliance 1.7%
DUP 8.5%
UUP 17.1% 1 seat
The demographics indicate 5 nationalist seats and this is what occurred in 2014. This a very difficult election to predict for several reasons. Aontu has a candidate. However, she was the SDLP candidate elected in 2014 and is likely to take more votes from the SDLP than SF. SF is standing 5 candidates but since 1 will be eliminated then Aontu may pick up some transfers. The SDLP received 2/3 of the Green and Alliance transfers in 2014. The nationalist vote will be increasing and it is possible that the DUP candidate will be eliminated in the next to last count. Where will their transfers go? Generally few go to any non unionist but the number that go to the SDLP or Aontu will determine the final results.
Prediction
1 UUP 1 SDLP 1 Aontu 3 SF
Change -1 SF +1 Aontu
Omagh- 6 seats Quota 14.3%
2019 Electorate
Catholic 72%
Protestant 25.5%
None/Other 2.5%
Candidates
1 DUP 1 UUP 1 TUV 1 Alliance 1 Green 2 Ind 2 SDLP 3 SF 1 Aontu 3 Ind nationalists
2014 Results
SF 37.5% 2 seats
SDLP 23.3% 2 seat
Ind nationalist 1.4%
Alliance 6.3%
DUP 20.0% 1 seat
UUP 11.5% 1 seat
The demographics indicate only 1 unionist seat but nationalist turnout was only 37% vs 50% unionist. With the abundance of nationalist candidates in 2019 the nationalist turnout will be higher. This DEA very complicated. Two of the independent nationalists (Deehan and Donnelly) are the 2 SDLP candidates that were elected in 2014. Deehan did receive twice the vote of Donnelly. The other independent nationalist (McAnespy) was elected for SF in 2014. There is also an Aontu candidate that will draw votes from all the nationalist candidates. There are 1,000 foreign nationals on the register and if these are targeted by all the anti-Brexit candidates there could be only 1 unionist elected. The UUP vote was only half in the 2017 Assembly and Westminster election compared to 2014.
Prediction
1 DUP 1 SDLP 1 Ind Nationalist (Deehan) 2 SF 1 Aontu
Change -1 UUP -1 SDLP +1 Ind nationalist +1 Aontu
Erne North- 5 seats Quota 16.7%
2019 Electorate
Catholic 51%
Protestant 47%
None/Other 2%
Candidates
2 DUP 2 UUP 1 TUV I Ind unionist 1 Alliance 1 SDLP 2 SF
2014 Results
SF 24.6% 1 seat
SDLP 16.6% 1 seat
DUP 38.1% 2 seats
UUP 13.5% 1 seat
TUV 7.2%
The demographics indicate 3 nationalist seats but obviously the election results show nowhere near 3. This is because nationalist turnout was 45% vs 69% unionist. Interestingly, in Erne East and North both nationalist and unionist turnout are 69% so it is unclear why there is so much nationalist apathy here.
Prediction
2 DUP 1 UUP 1 SDLP 1 SF
Erne West- 5 seats Quota 16.7%
2019 Electorate
Catholic 70%
Protestant 28%
None/Other 2%
Candidates
1 DUP 1 UUP I Independent unionist 1 SDLP 3 SF 1 Independent nationalist
2014 Results
SF 39.3% 2 seats
SDLP 13.9% 1 seat
Ind Nationalist 17.3% 1 seat
DUP 6.1%
UUP 23.4% 1 seat
I expect no change here. The SDLP vote may be down but they will receive some UUP transfers.
Prediction
1 UUP 1 SDLP 2 SF 1 Independent Nationalist
Erne East- 6 seats Quota 14.3%
2019 Electorate
Catholic 66%
Protestant 32.5%
None/Other 1.5%
Candidates
1 DUP 1 UUP 2 Independents 1 SDLP 4 SF 1 Aontu
2014 Results
SF 51.2% 3 seats
SDLP 12.9% 1 seat
DUP 15.9% 1 seat
UUP 16.2% 1 seat
UKIP 3.8%
The SDLP vote will be down but they will receive a significant number of unionist transfers. Indeed, they received 1/3 of the UKIP vote in transfers in 2014 and that percentage will be even higher for UUP transfers. Former SF MLA from the 2007 election is standing for Aontu. With 4 SF candidates standing he needs to be ahead of 2 of them in order to get elected. He only polled 4.3% in the 2011 council election so this is unlikely.
Prediction
1 DUP 1 UUP 1 SDLP 3 SF
Enniskillen- 6 seats Quota 14.7%
2019 Electorate
Catholic 54%
Protestant 43%
None/Other 3%
Candidates
2 DUP 2 UUP 1 TUV 1 Green 2 Independents 1 SDLP 2 SF
SF 21.7% 2 seats
SDLP 9.5% 1 seat
Ind Nationalist 12.9%
Alliance 2.2%
Green 1.1%
DUP 19.0% 1 seat
UUP 24.2% 2 seats
TUV 9.4%
The demographics indicate almost 4 nationalist seats here but the unionist vote actually exceeds the nationalist vote due to low nationalist turnout. There will be no change here.
Prediction
2 UUP 1 DUP 1 SDLP 2 SF
Overall a good result for Aontu with 3 seats in this council.
Now on to the Mid Ulster DEA’s
Clogher Valley- 6 seats Quota 14.3%
2019 Electorate
Catholic 53%
Protestant 45%
None/Other 2%
Candidates
2 DUP 2 UUP 1 SDLP 1 SF
2014 Results
SF 33.0% 2 seats
SDLP 13.5% 1 seat
DUP 28.4% 2 seats
UUP 25.1% 1 seat
This DEA is unusual since the unionist vote far exceeds the nationalist vote even though the demographics indicate the vote should be the opposite of what it was. This is because the nationalist turnout was 55% vs 71% unionist. This may change in 2019 since this a border DEA that will be adversely affected by Brexit. Unionist voters do not vote for nationalist candidates so some may stay home. It is difficult to imagine the local farmers voting for unionist parties whose pro Brexit positions will result in their bankruptcy and loss of their farms. However, turkeys sometimes do vote for Christmas even though it is not in their interest to do so.
Prediction
2 DUP 1 UUP 1 SDLP 2 SF
Dungannon- 6 seats Quota 14.3%
2019 Electorate
Catholic 61%
Protestant 36%
None/Other 3%
Candidates
2 DUP 2 UUP 1 Alliance 1 SDLP 2 SF 2 Independent Nationalists
2014 Results
SF 20.2% 1 seats
SDLP 9.1% 1 seat
Ind Nationalist 19.6% 1 seat
Alliance 3.4%
DUP 20.7% 2 seats
UUP 20.2% 1 seat
TUV 6.7%
The demographics indicate well over 4 nationalist quotas. However, nationalist turnout was much lower at 39% vs 57% unionist. There are over 3,000 EU nationals on the register here, over 20% of the electorate. Obviously, those EU nationals are concerned about Brexit and if the SF and SDLP candidates target those voters then would be 4 nationalist quotas. There is no TUV candidate in 2019 and some of those voters may stay home. The SDLP vote will benefit from Alliance transfers and both SF and the SDLP will receive transfers from the independents surplus.
Prediction
1 DUP 1 UUP I Ind Nationalist 1 SDLP 2 SF
Change -1 DUP +1 SF
Torrent- 6 seats Quota 14.3%
2019 Electorate
Catholic 82%
Protestant 17%
None/Other 1%
Candidates
1 DUP 1 UUP 1 SDLP 4 SF 1 Independent nationalist
2014 Results
SF 50.0% 4 seats
SDLP 18.4% 1 seat
Nationalist 8.1%
DUP 10.4%
UUP 13.4% 1 seat
Nationalist turnout was 48% vs 63% unionist. Nationalist turnout was over 80% here 15 years ago. That turnout increased in the 2017 Assembly election. There will be no change here. SF will receive enough SDLP and independent transfers to elect 4.
Prediction
1 UUP 1 SDLP 4 SF
Cookstown- 7 seats Quota 12.5%
2019 Electorate
Catholic 58%
Protestant 39%
None/Other 3%
Candidates
2 DUP 2 UUP 1 TUV 1 SDLP 3 SF
2014 Results
SF 41.3% 3 seats
SDLP 12.0% 1 seat
Alliance 1.3%
DUP 12.5% 1 seat
UUP 23.7% 2 seats
TUV 7.1%
UKIP 2.2%
The demographics indicate almost 5 nationalist quotas but obviously with low nationalist turnout and only 4 candidates only 4 could be elected. It would be interesting to see how close SF would come to 4 quotas if they had a 4th candidate.
Prediction
1 DUP 2 UUP 1 SDLP 3 SF
Magherafelt- 5 seats Quota 16.7%
2019 Electorate
Catholic 54%
Protestant 43.5%
None/Other 2.5%
Candidates
2 DUP 1 UUP 1 SDLP 2 SF 1 Aontu
2014 Results
SF 29.6% 2 seats
SDLP 15.5% 1 seat
Independents 8.1%
DUP 24.8% 1 seat
UUP 11.2% 1 seat
TUV 10.7%
The UUP will probably lose their seat. The UUP vote in the 2017 elections declined to a little over half of that in the 2014 council elections in Mid Ulster. The DUP should be close to 2 quotas and 2 will be elected on UUP transfers. The SDLP vote may decline but they picked up 1.5% on independent transfers and will receive UUP transfers also so should elect one. The SF candidates were well balanced so unless Aontu can take away 11% of the SF vote (likely would 32% without Aontu) then SF should win two.
Prediction
2 DUP 1 SDLP 2 SF
Change -1 UUP +1 DUP
Moyola- 5 seats Quota 16.7%
2019 Electorate
Catholic 65.5%
Protestant 33.0%
None/Other 1.5%
Candidates
1 DUP 1 UUP 1 Alliance 1 SDLP 3 SF 1 Workers Party
2014 Results
SF 51.0% 3 seats
SDLP 13.6%
DUP 18.5% 1 seat
UUP 17.0% 1 seat
The demographics indicate 2 unionist and 4 nationalist quotas but there are only 5 seats. The total unionist vote was 35.5% and 33.4% is needed for 2 quotas. However, in the 2017 Assembly election it would have been only 30% due to much higher nationalist turnout. The UUP vote has also dropped significantly since 2014. This election could see 19% DUP and 11% UUP with not enough DUP transfers to elect the UUP. The SF vote could exceed 55 % and the SDLP will elect one on SF transfers.
Prediction
1 DUP 1 SDLP 3 SF
Change -1 UUP +1 SDLP
Carntogher- 5 seats Quota 16.7%
2019 Electorate
Catholic 74%
Protestant 25%
None/Other 1%
Candidates
1 DUP 1 UUP 1 Independent 1 SDLP 4 SF 1 Aontu
2014 Results
SF 60.9% 3 seats
SDLP 14.8% 1 seat
DUP 9.0% 1 seat
UUP 8.7%
TUV 6.6%
The UUP vote will be lower so the DUP will retain their seat on transfers. The SDLP vote will be lower but they received enough unionist transfers to raise their total by 4% so will keep their seat. I believe Aontu will win a seat here. SF had 2 candidates elected under a quota and it will be difficult to balance the 4 SF against only 1 Aontu and on a lower 1st preference vote.
Prediction
1 DUP 1 SDLP 2 SF 1 Aontu
Change -1 SF +1 Aontu
Overall a gain of 1 seat each for Aontu and the SDLP and a loss of 1 each for the UUP and SF.
District Council 2019
#4 Armagh-Banbridge-Craigavon and Newry-Mourne-Down
Armagh- 6 seats Quota 14.3%
2019 Electorate
Catholic 71%
Protestant 27 %
None/Other 2%
Candidates
1 DUP 1 UUP 1 Alliance 2 SDLP 3 SF 1 Aontu 1 Ind nationalist
2014 Results
SF 40.1% 2 seats
SDLP 26.8% 2 seats
Alliance 1.2%
DUP 9.6% 1 seat
UUP 19.3% 1 seat
UKIP 2.1%
There were 2 unionist quotas here in 2014. The demographics indicate 5 nationalist and 2 unionist quotas and turnout was 43% nationalist vs 53 % unionist so the 2 unionist quotas occurred. Nationalist turnout was up in the 2017 Assembly election such that the unionist vote would have been between 28% and 29%. There are 1,200 EU nationals on the register and if these are targeted by the pro EU ant-Brexit SF and SDLP then I would expect 5 nationalist seats, especially since even in 2014 the total party vote for SF was just short of 3 quotas and their 3rd candidate was 490 votes behind the DUP. Of course, how the Aontu vote transfers will influence the outcome. However, the SF vote increased and that of the SDLP decreased between 2014 and 2017 so if there are not 5 nationalists elected it is the SDLP that will lose a seat and SF gain one.
Prediction
1 UUP 2 SDLP 3 SF
Change -1 DUP +1 SF
Cusher- 5 seats Quota 16.7%
2019 Electorate
Catholic 24%
Protestant 73 %
None/Other 3%
Candidates
2 DUP 2 UUP 1 Ind Unionist 1 Independent 1 Alliance 1 SDLP 1 SF
2014 Results
SF 9.8%
SDLP 11.4% 1 seat
Alliance 1.2%
DUP 22.0% 1 seat
UUP 38.4% 2 seats
Unionist 18.4% 1 seat
The UUP vote will be down from 2014 as that is the trend. The SF vote may exceed the SDLP vote here for the first time ever. However, there will be such a large unionist surplus (10%) that the SDLP will keep their seat on transfers.
Prediction
1 DUP 2 UUP 1 Ind Unionist (Berry) 1 SDLP
Portadown- 6 seats Quota 14.3%
2019 Electorate
Catholic 34%
Protestant 61 %
None/Other 5%
Candidates
3 DUP 2 UUP 1 TUV 1 UKIP 1 Ind unionist 1 Alliance 1 SDLP 2 SF
2014 Results
SF 16.7% 1 seat
SDLP 8.7%
Alliance 2.0%
NI21 0.8%
DUP 32.7% 2 seats
UUP 19.4% 2 seats
TUV 6.8%
PUP 5.4%
UKIP 7.8% 1 seat
The demographics indicate 2.5 nationalist quotas but only one SF was elected since nationalist turnout was 37% vs 50% unionist. The UKIP councilor elected in 2014, David Jones, is standing as an independent in 2019. There is no PUP candidate. The 2017 Assembly election saw a significant increase in the nationalist turnout. If that higher turnout persists then there will be 2 nationalist quotas. The SF vote will be over twice that of the SDLP vote. This would seem to indicate that 2 SF will be elected. However, 2017 results show a significantly higher DUP vote and lower proportionate UUP vote. There are also 3,000 foreign nationals on the register here of which 2,700 are EU nationals. Obviously, if the pro EU anti-Brexit SF and SDLP candidates are able to target these voters the nationalist vote will be up significantly. If the DUP balance their 3 candidates well (which they did not do in 2014) then they will elect 3. The UUP should still have a quota. There will be a unionist surplus of 10% and enough should transfer to the SDLP along with some Alliance transfers, to elect one for the SDLP.
Prediction
3 DUP 1 UUP 1 SDLP 1 SF
Change -1 UKIP +1 SDLP
Craigavon- 5 seats Quota 16.7%
2019 Electorate
Catholic 56%
Protestant 39 %
None/Other 5%
Candidates
2 DUP 2 UUP 1 Alliance 2 SDLP 2 SF 1 Aontu
2014 Results
SF 22.5% 1 seat
SDLP 15.1% 1 seat
Nationalist 5.8%
Alliance 4.7%
DUP 25.4% 2 seats
UUP 21.7% 1 seat
PUP 4.9%
The demographics indicate well over 3 nationalist quotas but the unionist vote actually exceeded the nationalist vote. Nationalist turnout was 42% vs 64% unionist. However, if the 2017 Assembly turnout occurred there would have been 3 nationalists elected. There are 1,200 EU nationals on the register so if SF and the SDLP target these voters then there will be 2 SF and 1 SDLP elected. Although the UUP vote is declining their total vote should be above a quota.
Prediction
1 DUP 1 UUP 1 SDLP 2 SF
Change -1 DUP +1 SF
Lurgan- 7 seats Quota 12.5%
2019 Electorate
Catholic 61%
Protestant 36%
None/Other 3%
Candidates
2 DUP 1 UUP 1 Alliance 2 SDLP 4 SF
2014 Results
SF 35.8% 3 seats
SDLP 14.4% 1 seat
Alliance 5.1%
DUP 22.6% 2 seats
UUP 12.5% 1 seat
UKIP 2.3%
PUP 2.8%
TUV 3.2%
The demographics indicate 5 nationalist and 3 unionist quotas. Nationalist turnout was much lower at 38% vs 51% unionist. Nationalist turnout was much higher in the 2017 Assembly election. There are also 1,500 EU nationals on the register here which the pro EU anti-Brexit SF and SDLP candidates can target. The UUP vote may decline to 10% and the SDLP vote may decline to 10% based on trends since 2014. The DUP will be over 2 quotas based on trends since 2014. I think it will be too difficult for SF to reach the 50% needed for 4 quotas but they will be close.
Prediction
2 DUP 1 UUP 1 SDLP 3 SF
Banbridge- 7 seats Quota 12.5%
2019 Electorate
Catholic 37.5%
Protestant 59 %
None/Other 3.5%
Candidates
2 DUP 3 UUP 1 TUV 1 Alliance 1 SDLP 2 SF
2014 Results
SF 14.5% 1 seat
SDLP 12.3% 1 seat
Alliance 5.1%
NI21 3.3%
DUP 23.9% 2 seats
UUP 41.0% 3 seats
The demographics indicate 3 nationalist quotas but nationalist turnout was 39% vs 51% unionist. The turnout was higher in 2017 and the combined SF-SDLP vote would have been 30%. However, that is still far from 3 quotas. The SF vote will be up significantly and the SDLP vote may only be at one quota. If the Alliance vote increases to 8% (some NI21 from 2014) then Alliance would be elected on SF transfers from the SF surplus. The DUP vote will be over 2 quotas based on trends since 2014 and the UUP will be less than 3 quotas.
Prediction
2 DUP 2 UUP 1 Alliance 1 SDLP 1 SF
Change -1 UUP +1 Alliance
Lagan River- 5 seats Quota 16.7%
2019 Electorate
Catholic 15%
Protestant 80 %
None/Other 5%
Candidates
3 DUP 2 UUP 1 UKIP 1TUV 1 Ind unionist 1 Alliance 1 SDLP 1 SF
2014 Results
SF 3.3%
SDLP 3.8%
Alliance 6.2%
NI21 3.4%
DUP 40.7% 3 seats
UUP 31.4% 2 seats
TUV 9.1%
Unionist 2.1%
There could be a nationalist seat here but nationalist turnout is so low, 29% vs 53% unionist, that this will not occur. The combined SF-SDLP vote will not exceed 9%. If the Alliance vote were higher they could be elected on nationalist transfers but they did not receive enough of those transfers in 2014.
Prediction
3 DUP 2 UUP
Overall for this council a decline in unionist representation with 2 more SF, 1 SDLP and 1 Alliance elected.
Now on to the Newry-Mourne-Down council
Slieve Gullion- 7 seats Quota 12.5%
2019 Electorate
Catholic 85%
Protestant 14 %
None/Other 1%
Candidates
1 DUP 1 UUP 1 Alliance 2 SDLP 5 SF
2014 Results
SF 62.2% 4 seats
SDLP 23.3% 2 seats
DUP 3.4%
UUP 11.1% 1 seat
The SDLP won 2 seats because of poor balancing by SF and UUP transfers. Without the UUP transfers SF would have won a 5th seat by 80 votes. The SF vote will be higher and the SDLP vote lower based on the 2017 Assembly election results. SF will definitely be over 5 quotas and will win 5 seats. However, the SDLP could still keep their 2 seats depending on turnout. The nationalist turnout was higher in the 2017 Assembly election and the unionist vote here would have been 13% based on that turnout. If it drops any further (to 12.5%) then who wins the 7th seat will depend on transfers. This is a border region that will be very negatively affected by Brexit so nationalist turnout may go up. There are also 400 EU nationals on the register and if they vote in any significant numbers it will determine the outcome.
Prediction
2 SDLP 5 SF
Change -1 UUP +1 SF
Newry- 6 seats Quota 14.3%
2019 Electorate
Catholic 90%
Protestant 8 %
None/Other 2%
Candidates
1 UUP 1 Alliance 2 SDLP 4 SF 1 Ind nationalist
2014 Results
SF 51.7% 4 seats
SDLP 31.6% 2 seats
Nationalist 12.3%
UUP 4.4%
I do not expect any change here. SF will elect all 4 and the SDLP 2. The SDLP may be less than 2 quotas but will reach 2 quotas on Alliance and UUP transfers. There are also 1,600 EU nationals on the register here.
Prediction
2 SDLP 4 SF
Crotlieve- 6 seats Quota 14.3%
2019 Electorate
Catholic 86%
Protestant 12 %
None/Other 2%
Candidates
1 DUP 1 UUP 1 Alliance 3 Independents 3 SDLP 4 SF
2014 Results
SF 34.5% 2 seats
SDLP 43.4% 3 seats
Independent 10.3% 1 seat
UUP 9.5%
DUP 2.3%
The SDLP vote will be down and less than 3 quotas. The 2017 elections indicate the SDLP and SF percentages will be reversed so SF will have 3 1st preference quotas though all 3 will not be elected until 1 of the 4 SF candidates is eliminated. If the independent elected in 2014 OR the unionist candidates are eliminated then the SDLP will still elect 3.
Prediction
3 SDLP 3 SF
Change -1 Independent +1 SF
The Mournes- 7 seats Quota 12.5%
2019 Electorate
Catholic 59.5%
Protestant 37.5 %
None/Other 3%
Candidates
1 DUP 1 UUP 1 Ind Unionist 1 Alliance 2 SDLP 3 SF
2014 Results
SF 28.5% 2 seats
SDLP 23.8% 2 seats
Alliance 2.4%
NI21 1.4%
UUP 17.0% 1 seat
DUP 9.0% 1 seat
UKIP 18.1% 1 seat
The demographics indicate almost 5 nationalist quotas. However, nationalist turnout was only 46% vs 56% unionist. Nationalist turnout was higher in the 2017 Assembly elections but total unionist vote would have been 40%, which is still over 3 quotas. The SF vote will be higher and the SDLP vote will be less than 2 quotas but the SDLP will receive enough Alliance and unionist transfers to keep their 2 seats. The UKIP candidate in 2014 is standing as an independent in 2019.
Prediction
1 DUP 1 UUP 1 Ind Unionist 2 SDLP 2 SF
Slieve Croob- 5 seats Quota 16.7%
2019 Electorate
Catholic 65%
Protestant 31.5 %
None/Other 3.5%
Candidates
1 DUP 1 UUP 1 Alliance 2 SDLP 3 SF 1 Aontu
2014 Results
SF 32.5% 2 seats
SDLP 24.9% 1 seat
Alliance 10.0% 1 seat
NI21 1.6%
UUP 10.4%
DUP 14.8% 1 seat
UKIP 5.9%
Based on trends since 2014 and looking at the 2017 Assembly and Westminster results The SF vote will be 40% and the SDLP vote 20%. SF will be too far short of 3 quotas even with perfect balancing. The UUP vote will be down based on trends since 2014 and will be less than Alliance 1st preference. Alliance should elect one on UUP and some SDLP transfers.
Prediction
1 DUP 1 Alliance 1 SDLP 2 SF
Downpatrick- 5 seats Quota 16.7%
2019 Electorate
Catholic 86%
Protestant 11 %
None/Other 3%
Candidates
1 DUP 1 UUP 1 Green 1 Alliance 1 Independent 3 SDLP 2 SF 1 Aontu
2014 Results
SF 28.3% 1 seat
SDLP 50.9% 3 seats
Independent 12.9% 1 seat
UUP 5.7%
DUP 2.2%
The SF vote will certainly be higher since 2014 and will be over 2 quotas (33.4%). The Independent elected in 2014 (Enright) was the Green candidate in 2011. There was no Alliance candidate in 2014 nor a Green candidate. If the SDLP vote is 45% and the SF vote 35% can the SDLP still elect 3? They did receive 60% the unionist transfers vs 40% for Enright. With Alliance and Greens competing Enright will have a lower 1st preference. Since the SDLP will be picking up 4% from unionist transfers as well as some SF surplus transfers they will probably elect 3 again. Only poor balancing could alter this.
Prediction
3 SDLP 2 SF
Change -1 Independent +1 SF
Rowallane- 5 seats Quota 16.7%
2019 Electorate
Catholic 36%
Protestant 59 %
None/Other 5%
Candidates
2 DUP 2 UUP 1 Independent 1 Green 1 Alliance 1 SDLP 1 SF 1 Aontu
2014 Results
SF 8.0%
SDLP 19.0% 1 seat
Nationalist 2.2%
Alliance 7.3% 1 seat
NI21 3.9%
UUP 26.2% 1 seat
DUP 27.3% 2 seats
TUV 6.2%
The demographics indicate 2 nationalist quotas. Nationalist turnout was 40% vs 45% unionist in 2014 but it was identical in the 2017 Assembly election. The SDLP vote will be down and the SF vote up though the SF increase will be muted by the presence of the Aontu candidate. The total nationalist vote may reach 2 quotas on 1st preference. The UUP vote will be down and the DUP vote up. Alliance will add half of the NI21 vote from 2014. The UUP should still elect 2 on TUV transfers. Alliance defeated the UUP for the 5th seat in 2014 by only 80 votes which included over 400 nationalist transfers. Those transfers will not be available in this election.
Prediction
2 DUP 1 UUP 1 SDLP 1 SF
Change -1 Alliance +1 SF
District Council 2019
#3 Belfast
Belfast should be interesting in 2019. Nationalist turnout was quite low in 2014 and unionist turnout was high due to the flag controversy. NI21 no longer exists so their 2.7% of the vote will go elsewhere. The vote of People Before Profit has increased dramatically. It was only 5% in West Belfast in 2014 and increased to 23% in the 2016 Assembly election only to fall back to 15% in the 2017 Assembly election and 10.4% in the 2017 Westminster election. What their vote is in 2019 will greatly determine the results in the 3 DEA’s within West Belfast. The presence of the new republican party Aontu will also influence the results.
This was the distribution of councilors by party after the election:
SF 19
SDLP 7
PBP 1
Green 1
Alliance 8
UUP 7
DUP 13
PUP 3
TUV 1
Castle- 6 seats Quota 14.3%
2019 Electorate
Catholic 54%
Protestant 40 %
None/Other 6%
Candidates
2 DUP 1 UUP 1 Green 1 Alliance 2 SDLP 2 SF 1 PBP 1 WP 2 Ind Nationalists
2014 Results
SF 25.1% 1 seat
SDLP 16.6% 1 seat
Nationalist 3.9%
Alliance 9.6% 1 seat
NI21 3.2%
DUP 24.7% 2 seats
UUP 10.1% 1 seat
PUP 6.2%
The nationalist electorate is almost 4 quotas but only 2 were elected. This was because of low turnout and lack of transfers to SF and good balancing among all 3 unionists elected. The 2nd SF candidate was only 112 votes behind the UUP on the last count and all 3 unionists were elected under quota. The result will be different in 2019. In North Belfast in 2014 the nationalist vote was 39% but in the 2017 Assembly and Westminster elections it was 47%. If that higher turnout persists then the total nationalist 1st preference vote in Castle DEA will be 55%. There are essentially 4 SDLP candidates since the 2 independent nationalist were the 2 SDLP candidates in 2014. PBP is also standing. The SF vote will be over 30% so both will be elected. There is no PUP candidate in 2019 but in 2014 their vote split evenly between the UUP and DUP. The UUP vote has been declining since 2014 and will be less than 10%, even after taking into account the extra votes from the absence of a PUP candidate. The majority of the NI21 vote transferred to Alliance so their 1st preference vote will be over 11%. Alliance will be elected since the UUP will be eliminated and receive some of their transfers. 2 DUP will also be elected on UUP transfers. There are essentially 4 SDLP candidates and their combined 1st preference should be over 20%. Pat Convery received twice the vote of Mullaghan in 2014. It is likely that one of the 2 official SDLP candidates will be elected after the other 3 are eliminated. Some of their transfers will go to Alliance and Alliance should be over a quota.
Prediction
2 DUP 1 Alliance 1 SDLP 2 SF
Change -1 UUP +1 SF
Oldpark- 6 seats Quota 14.3%
2019 Electorate
Catholic 67%
Protestant 29.5 %
None/Other 3.5%
Candidates
2 DUP 1 UUP 1 PUP 1 Green 1 Alliance 1 SDLP 4 SF 1 PBP 1 WP
2014 Results
SF 44.6% 3 seats
SDLP 8.8% 1 seat
Nationalist 11.7%
Alliance 3.0%
DUP 18.1% 1 seat
UUP 3.5%
PUP 7.4% 1 seat
TUV 3.0%
This results in this DEA will also change if the nationalist turnout is as high as it was in the 2017 Assembly and Westminster elections. The nationalist vote would be over 5 quotas (71.4%). The DUP would still have 1 quota. The SF vote will be over 50% and with 4 balanced candidates they all be will be elected on PBP transfers. The SDLP vote may be less than the PBP vote but they will receive significant transfers from Alliance, Green, WP and UUP and should win on the last count.
Prediction
1 DUP 1 SDLP 4 SF
Change -1 PUP +1 SF
Court- 6 seats Quota 14.3%
2019 Electorate
Catholic 38%
Protestant 58 %
None/Other 4%
Candidates
3 DUP 1 UUP 1 PUP 1 TUV I Ind unionist 1 Green 1 Alliance 1 SDLP 2 SF 1 PBP 1 WP
2014 Results
SF 24.0% 2 seats
SDLP 4.9%
Nationalist 5.0%
Alliance 1.1%
NI21 1.0%
DUP 31.1% 2 seats
UUP 5.7%
PUP 19.8% 1 seat
TUV 7.3% 1 seat
Nationalist turnout was lower than unionist turnout in 2014. Unionist turnout was high due to the flag controversy. However, in the 2017 Assembly election nationalist turnout was so much higher that the nationalist vote would have been 40% with the same unionist turnout. In 2017 unionist turnout was actually lower than the 2014 council election by a few hundred votes. So if a council election had been held the same day in 2017 the nationalist vote would have been 43%. If the nationalist turnout remains high and the unionist turnout is slightly lower (due to demographic changes over the past 5 years) then only 3 unionists will be elected. SF is only standing 2 and their 1st preference vote should equal 30% so 2 will be elected. It is difficult to predict Whether PBP or the SDLP will have the advantage for the 3rd nationalist seat. The SDLP will receive Alliance, Green, WP and UUP transfers but their 1st preference vote may be only 5%. If PBP 1st preference vote is over 7% then they will have the advantage. The PUP will be over a quota and the DUP should be near 2 quotas and will elect 2 on UUP transfers. I do not see how the TUV can win a seat. The independent unionist is the TUV councilor elected in 2014 and likely they will not transfer well to each other depending on who is eliminated first.
Prediction
2 DUP 1 PUP 2 SF 1 PBP
Change -1 TUV +1 PBP
Black Mountain- 7 seats Quota 12.5%
2019 Electorate
Catholic 95%
Protestant 3.5 %
None/Other 1.5%
Candidates
1 Green 1 Alliance 1 SDLP 6 SF 1 Aontu 1 PBP 1 WP
2014 Results
SF 68.0% 5 seats
SDLP 10.0% 1 seat
Nationalist 20.6% 1 seat (PBP)
Alliance 0.8%
NI21 0.6%
The PBP vote was 12% in 2014 and based on the 2017 Westminster or Assembly election will be well above a quota. The SDLP vote could be less than 10% but they will receive 1% from the 2014 Alliance and NI21 vote as well as some PBP transfers. The SF vote will be less than 60% due to the increased PBP vote since 2014 as well as the presence of Aontu and may not elect 5. The Eirigi vote was 7.5% in 2014 and it is not clear where this vote will go. Some will go to PBP and some to Aontu. Since it will be difficult to balance 6 candidates and taking into account the changes that occurred in the 2017 I believe SF will elect 4 and Aontu 1. It is also possible that the SDLP could lose their seat and SF elect 5. This is not an easy DEA to predict.
Prediction
1 SDLP 4 SF 1 Aontu 1 PBP
Collin- 6 seats Quota 14.7%
2019 Electorate
Catholic 88%
Protestant 10 %
None/Other 2%
Candidates
1 DUP 1 UUP 1 Green 1 Alliance 1 SDLP 5 SF 1 PBP 1 Aontu 1 WP
2014 Results
SF 67.4% 5 seats
SDLP 14.1% 1 seat
Nationalist 6.5%
Alliance 3.8%
NI21 3.8%
UUP 4.3%
The SDLP vote may be lower but they will receive many Alliance and unionist transfers so will still elect one. Either Aontu or PBP could take the 5th SF seat here. Based on the Assembly vote PBP should be near a quota and should win a seat with Aontu transfers.
Prediction
1 SDLP 4 SF 1 PBP
Change -1 SF +1 PBP
Botanic- 5 seats Quota 16.7%
2019 Electorate
Catholic 48%
Protestant 39 %
None/Other 13%
Candidates
2 DUP 1 UUP 1 PUP 1 TUV 1 Ind unionist 1 Green 2 Alliance 1 SDLP I Ind nationalist 2 SF 1 PBP 1 WP
2014 Results
SF 14.7% 1 seat
SDLP 16.7% 1 seat
Nationalist 3.0%
Alliance 17.9% 1 seat
Green 8.6%
NI21 5.5%
UUP 8.5% 1 seat
DUP 14.1% 1 seat
TUV 5.7%
PUP 3.9%
Conservative 1.4%
There was a 6% decline in the unionist vote from the 2014 election to the 2017 Assembly election in South Belfast. If that higher nationalist-Alliance-Green turnout persists then the total unionist vote would be less than 30% here. SF votes should exceed 1 quota. The Green vote has increased significantly since 2014 and their 1st preference vote will be over 10%. They will receive transfers from the SDLP, Alliance, PBP and will receive some of the NI21 vote from 2014. The UUP vote has been declining and it possible that they could be eliminated before the TUV or PUP. Nevertheless, with a total unionist 1st preference less than 30% only one unionist will be elected which will be DUP. There is a remote chance that Alliance could win 2 on Green transfers but it would require perfect balancing and I believe the Green 1st preference vote will be too high for 2 Alliance to be elected. This DEA also has 3,500 foreign nationals on the register including 2,000 EU nationals. Obviously, any pro EU, anti-Brexit candidate who can successfully target those voters will have a major advantage.
Prediction
1 DUP 1 Alliance 1 Green 1 SDLP 1 SF
Change -1 UUP +1 Green
Balmoral- 5 seats Quota 16.7%
2019 Electorate
Catholic 47%
Protestant 47 %
None/Other 6%
Candidates
2 DUP 1 UUP 1 UKIP 1 Green 1 Alliance 2 SDLP 1 SF 1 PBP
2014 Results
SF 17.1% 1 seat
SDLP 23.7% 1 seat
Nationalist 0.8%
Alliance 13.9% 1 seat
Green 2.5%
NI21 3.7%
UUP 9.9% 1 seat
DUP 21.6% 1 seat
PUP 6.0%
Conservative 0.8%
The nationalist-Alliance-Green turnout was much higher in the 2017 Assembly and Westminster elections. If that higher turnout persists then the total 1st preference unionist vote would be 32% or just short of 2 quotas. SF will be elected on the 1st count with a significant surplus. Alliance should be elected on the 1st count since they will pick up much of the 2014 NI21 vote. The UUP vote will be down significantly and may be only 8% or less. If that occurs then the 2 DUP candidates will be ahead of the UUP who will be eliminated. The SDLP could elect 2 if they have good balancing since they will receive SF, PBP, Alliance and Green transfers and if the UUP are eliminated UUP transfers.
Prediction
1 DUP 1 Alliance 2 SDLP 1 SF
Change -1 UUP +1 SDLP
Lisnasharragh- 6 seats Quota 14.3%
2019 Electorate
Catholic 33%
Protestant 59 %
None/Other 8%
Candidates
3 DUP 2 UUP 1 UKIP 1 PUP 1 Green 2 Alliance 1 Ind 1 SDLP 1 SF 1 PBP I Ind nationalist
2014 Results
SF 6.1%
SDLP 8.4% 1 seat
Alliance 24.6% 2 seats
Green 4.6%
NI21 4.5%
UUP 13.0% 1 seat
DUP 32.8% 2 seats
PUP 6.0%
The nationalist vote should be up significantly to the 20% range. Alliance will pick up enough NI21 votes that they may have 2 1st preference quota. However, based on the 2017 Assembly results the Green vote may be as high as 10% and if the Alliance candidates are not perfectly balanced then one will be eliminated The SF vote may be close the SDLP vote since the independent nationalist Kate Mullan was the SDLP councilor elected in 2014. While much of her transfers will go to the SDLP some may go to SF or Alliance. The UUP vote will be down but they should be elected on PUP transfers of which they received half in 2014. I believe the SDLP will win the last seat with the help of unionist transfers.
Prediction
2 DUP 1 UUP 1 Alliance 1 Green 1 SDLP
Change -1 Alliance +1 Green
Titanic- 6 seats Quota 14.3%
2019 Electorate
Catholic 25%
Protestant 63 %
None/Other 12%
Candidates
3 DUP 2 UUP 1 UKIP 1 PUP 1 Green 2 Alliance 1 Ind 1 SF
2014 Results
SF 11.7% 1 seat
SDLP 1.0%
WP 0.7%
Socialist 1.1%
Alliance 15.1% 1 seat
Green 2.1%
NI21 2.6%
UUP 16.7% 1 seat
DUP 26.1% 2 seats
PUP 11.6% 1 seat
TUV 5.8%
UKIP 5.5%
This is an area where the demographics are changing rapidly. The native Protestant population is moving out and there has been a large influx of foreign nationals. There are 2,500 foreign nationals on the register of which 1,600 are EU nationals. Many are not registered and that total adult population is somewhere between 15% and 20% of the total population. The total non unionist vote was 34% and this would have been higher in the 2017 Assembly election. There are only 3 anti-Brexit pro EU parties competing. SF could have a 1st count quota if they target the large foreign national electorate, most of whom are very worried about Brexit. Alliance could also elect 2 if they target the same foreign national electorate. The UUP have 2 candidates, which is a poor strategy since the UUP may be slightly short of one quota. They should still elect one on UKIP transfers and intra UUP transfers. The PUP should also elect one on UKIP transfers and some of the2014 TUV vote which they will receive on 1st preference or transfers.
Prediction
2 DUP 1 PUP 1 UUP 1 Alliance 1 SF
Ormiston- 7 seats Quota 12.5%
2019 Electorate
Catholic 14%
Protestant 78 %
None/Other 8%
Candidates
3 DUP 2 UUP 1 UKIP 1 PUP 1 Green 3 Alliance 1 SF
2014 Results
SF 0.4%
SDLP 0.7%
Alliance 27.5% 2 seats
Green 6.5% 1 seat
NI21 3.4%
UUP 19.6% 2 seat
DUP 26.8% 2 seats
PUP 4.0%
TUV 5.0%
UKIP 4.8%
Conservative 1.3%
The Alliance Party will be targeting the Green seat. In 2014 at the 10th count their 3rd candidate was only 57 votes behind the Greens and the 2 other Alliance candidates each had 300 more votes than the Green candidate. It was only by such poor balancing that Alliance lost the 3rd seat. This mistake is unlikely to be repeated again in 2019. The UUP vote will be down be they should still elect 2 on transfers from the smaller unionist parties.
Prediction
2 DUP 2 UUP 3 Alliance
Change -1 Green +1 Alliance
Overall the new Belfast council will be:
SF 19
SDLP 8
Aontu 1
PBP 3
Alliance 9
Green 1
DUP 13
UUP 5
PUP 1
I am least confident in the 3rd nationalist seat in Court because of the history of poor intra nationalist transfers. SF could also have 5 in Black Mountain but that will not affect the total number of nationalists. Belfast will either be a narrow nationalist majority council or they will hold half the seats. This outcome will only occur if nationalist turnout equals the 2017 Assembly level and EU and other foreign nationals are targeted.
Overall for this council a very good result with 4 extra seats for SF.
District Council 2019
#6 Causeway Coast & Glens—Derry & Strabane
The Glens- 5 seats Quota 16.7%
2019 Electorate
Catholic 71%
Protestant 27%
None/Other 2%
Candidates
1 DUP 1 UUP 1 SDLP 3 SF 1 Independent nationalist
2014 Results
SF 35.2% 2 seats
SDLP 18.7% 1 seat
Ind nationalist 22.5% 1 seat
Alliance 2.0%
DUP 7.6%
UUP 10.4% 1 seat
TUV 3.5%
The demographics indicate 2 unionist quotas but unionist turnout is much lower than nationalist turnout (38% vs 55%). The independent, Padraig McShane, who was elected in 2014 is not standing in 2019. I expect most of this vote to go to SF. The UUP vote may be lower but they will benefit from a few nationalist transfers and keep the seat.
Prediction
1 UUP 1 SDLP 3 SF
Change -1 independent +1 SF
Ballymoney- 7 seats Quota 12.5%
2019 Electorate
Catholic 31%
Protestant 65.5%
None/Other 3.5%
Candidates
3 DUP 2 UUP 2 TUV 1 Ind unionist 1 Alliance 2 SF
2014 Results
SF 18.9% 1 seat
SDLP 5.9%
Ind nationalist 2.4%
Alliance 3.7%
DUP 33.1% 3 seats
UUP 16.7% 2 seats
TUV 17.9% 1 seat
Conservative 1.6%
The demographics indicate 2.5 nationalist quotas here but only 1 SF was elected in 2014 due to low nationalist turnout and lack of transfers from the SDLP. SF lost the last seat to the DUP by only 9 votes. In a major surprise the SDLP is not even contesting this DEA while Alliance is. The UUP vote has declined significantly since 2014 in North Antrim so I expect the UUP to elect only one.
Prediction
3 DUP 1 UUP 1 TUV 2 SF
Change -1 UUP +1 SF
Causeway- 7 seats Quota 7.5%
2019 Electorate
Catholic 21.5%
Protestant 73.5%
None/Other 5%
Candidates
3 DUP 2 UUP 2 TUV 1 UKIP 1 Ind unionist 1 Alliance 1 Green 1 SDLP 1 SF
2014 Results
SF 0%
SDLP 9.4% 1 seat
Alliance 10.1% 1 seat
NI21 3.6%
DUP 31.2% 2 seats
UUP 25.6% 2 seats
TUV 10.5% 1 seat
UKIP 3.1%
Unionist 6.6%
There are 1.75 nationalist quotas based on the demographics but there was less than one in 2014 though the SDLP was elected on transfers under a quota and 100 votes ahead of the DUP candidate. Nationalist turnout was 27% vs 47% unionist. SF will compete in 2019.
Prediction
2 DUP 2 UUP 1 TUV 1 Alliance 1 SDLP
Coleraine- 6 seats Quota 14.3%
2019 Electorate
Catholic 26%
Protestant 68%
None/Other 6%
Candidates
3 DUP 2 UUP 1 PUP 1 UKIP 1 Conservative 1 Alliance 1 SDLP 1 SF
2014 Results
SF 5.8%
SDLP 11.0% 1 seat
Alliance 6.2%
NI21 1.7%
DUP 33.2% 2 seats
UUP 18.0% 2 seats
TUV 5.0%
PUP 11.8% 1 seat
UKIP 2.9%
Unionist 4.3%
The demographics indicate almost 2 nationalist quotas but nationalist turnout is only 28% versus 40% unionist. Nationalist turnout was higher in the 2017 Assembly election. The UUP vote is slowly declining and I believe the 2nd UUP candidate will be eliminated and some of those transfers will go to Alliance.
Prediction
2 DUP 1 UUP 1 PUP 1 Alliance 1 SDLP
Change -1 UUP +1 Alliance
Bann- 5 seats Quota 16.7%
2019 Electorate
Catholic 35.5%
Protestant 61.5%
None/Other 3.0%
Candidates
3 DUP 2 UUP 1 TUV 1 PUP 1 Alliance 1 SDLP 1 SF
2014 Results
SF 15.1%
SDLP 13.3% 1 seat
Alliance 3.6%
DUP 29.1% 2 seats
UUP 30.5% 2 seats
TUV 8.4%
There are over 2 nationalist quotas based on demographics. A nationalist turnout of 47% versus 60% unionist resulted in only 1 SDLP seat. Turnout was higher in the 2017 Assembly election. I expect that SF will be at a quota on the 1st count. The SDLP candidate will be elected on Alliance transfers.
Prediction
1 DUP 2 UUP 1 SDLP 1 SF
Change -1 DUP +1 SF
Limavady- 5 seats Quota 16.7%
2019 Electorate
Catholic 47.5%
Protestant 50.0%
None/Other 2.5%
Candidates
3 DUP 1 UUP 1 TUV 1 Alliance 1 SDLP 1 SF 1 Aontu
2014 Results
SF 21.3% 1 seat
SDLP 15.4% 1 seat
DUP 40.2% 2 seats
UUP 15.4% 1 seats
TUV 5.9%
UKIP 1.9%
The demographics indicate that the nationalist and unionist vote should be nearly equal but nationalist turnout was 35% versus 54% unionist. The main factor here is the Aontu candidate Francie Brolly who is a former SF MLA and councilor. The presence of an Alliance candidate here should help both the SDLP and UUP with transfers. If the Aontu vote exceed the SF vote or the reverse then that candidate will be elected. I will wildly speculate here and predict an Aontu win.
Prediction
2 DUP 1 UUP 1 SDLP 1 Aontu
Change -1 SF +1 Aontu
Benbradagh- 5 seats Quota 16.7%
2019 Electorate
Catholic 71.5%
Protestant 27%
None/Other 1.5%
Candidates
1 DUP 1 UUP 1 TUV 1 Alliance 1 SDLP 3 SF 1 Aontu
2014 Results
SF 49.5% 3 seats
SDLP 18.2% 1 seat
DUP 12.7%
TUV 19.6% 1 seat
Both the TUV and SDLP will be above a quota. It is possible that the SDLP could be below a quota but will be elected on Alliance and a few DUP transfers. It will be difficult for SF to win 3 seats here because of Aontu. Indeed, the DUP may encourage their voters to give Aontu a terminal transfer to defeat the 3rd SF candidate.
Prediction
1 TUV 1 SDLP 2 SF 1 Aontu
Change
-1 SF +1 Aontu
Overall for this council 2 SF gains in the eastern DEA’s but 2 losses to Aontu in the western DEA’s. Also a gain of one seat for Alliance.
Derry & Strabane
Faughan- 5 seats Quota 16.7%
2019 Electorate
Catholic 56%
Protestant 41%
None/Other 3%
Candidates
2 DUP 1 UUP 1 Alliance 3 SDLP 2 SF 1 Independent
2014 Results
SF 19.8% 1 seat
SDLP 23.3% 2 seats
Ind nationalist 8%
Alliance 5.3%
DUP 31.9% 2 seats
UUP 8.8%
UKIP 2.9%
SF may improve on their vote this year. There will be 2 DUP elected. The SDLP should still elect 2 since they will receive Alliance, Independent and UUP transfers.
Prediction
2 DUP 2 SDLP 1 SF
Waterside- 7 seats Quota 12.5%
2019 Electorate
Catholic 47%
Protestant 50%
None/Other 3%
Candidates
3 DUP 1 UUP 1 Alliance 2 SDLP 2 SF 1 PBP
2014 Results
SF 19.5% 1 seat
SDLP 22.3% 2 seats
Ind nationalist 1.3%
Alliance 2.7%
DUP 28.3% 3 seats
UUP 17.0% 1 seat
UKIP 5.8%
PUP 3.1%
This DEA was once strongly unionist but the demographics have changed dramatically over the past 40 years such that there is now near parity between the nationalist and unionist electorate. Nationalist turnout was 43% vs 48% unionist in 2014 but probably equal in the 2017 Assembly election. It is possible that there could be 4 nationalists elected. SF has increased their share of the nationalist vote since 2014 and it is likely that the SF vote will slightly exceed the SDLP vote. This is a border region where Brexit is a much more serious issue than in someplace such as Larne. Due to the disruptive effects that Brexit will have here the nationalist vote will be higher and could exceed unionist turnout. There are no UKIP or PUP candidates in 2019 and some of those voters will stay home, depressing the unionist turnout. The demographics show that the nationalist vote would be 2% higher compared to 5 years ago due to these changes. If the total unionist vote is 49% and the nationalist vote 47 % and Alliance 4% then 2 SF and 2 SDLP will be elected. One reason is that the UUP are standing only 1 candidate and will be 5% above the quota. So if the DUP vote is 32% they need all those UUP votes to transfer to the DUP. However, they will not since 1% will go the SDLP. If the SF vote is 24% and the SDLP vote 23% after PBP is eliminated then the SDLP will elect 2 since they will receive UUP and Alliance transfers. While SF will receive few Alliance transfer (0.5%) the DUP will receive few also (0.5%). SF may be just short of 2 quotas but the DUP will be even further away from 3.
Prediction
2 DUP 1 UUP 2 SDLP 2 SF
Change -1 DUP +1 SF
Ballyarnett- 6 seats Quota 14.3%
2019 Electorate
Catholic 95%
Protestant 4%
None/Other 1%
Candidates
1 Alliance 3 SDLP 4 SF 1 Aontu 1 PBP 1 Independent
2014 Results
SF 42.1% 3 seats
SDLP 42.6% 2 seats
Ind nationalist 13.5% 1 seat
Alliance 1.8%
The SDLP elected only 2 in 2014 despite having 3 1st preference quotas. The SDLP vote will be lower in 2019 but should be well above the 28.6% needed for 2 quotas. The Aontu candidate is a prominent local physician and will attract independent, SF and SDLP votes and should win a seat. SF will keep their 3 seats.
Prediction
2 SDLP 3 SF 1 Aontu
Change -1 Independent +1 Aontu
Foyleside- 5 seats Quota 16.7%
2019 Electorate
Catholic 91%
Protestant 6%
None/Other 3%
Candidates
1 Alliance 3 SDLP 3 SF 1 PBP 1 Independent
2014 Results
SF 36.0% 2 seats
SDLP 41.1% 2 seats
Ind nationalist 20.8% 1 seat
Alliance 2.2%
The SDLP vote will be down and the SF vote up but the SDLP will still have 2 quotas. The independent is former SDLP. PBP will receive much of the independent nationalist vote and could win on transfers.
Prediction
2 SF 2 SDLP 1 PBP
Change -1 Independent +1 PBP
The Moor- 5 seats Quota 16.7%
2019 Electorate
Catholic 95%
Protestant 5.5%
None/Other 1.5%
Candidates
1 DUP 1 Alliance 2 SDLP 4 SF 1 PBP 2 Independent
2014 Results
SF 51.5% 3 seats
SDLP 30.1% 1 seats
Ind nationalist 18.5% 1 seat
I would expect the SF vote to be up and the SDLP vote to be down but no change if the candidates were the same as in 2014. However, the well-known Eamonn McCann is standing for PBP. One of the independents, Gary Donnelly was elected in 2014 and the other independent is former SDLP. Donnelly may have received much of the PBP vote in 2014. The SDLP will be well above 1 quota but it will be difficult for SF to win 3 with McCann standing. However, I believe SF will win 3 and McCann will win over Donnelly.
Prediction
1 SDLP 3 SF 1 PBP
Change -1 Independent +1 PBP.
Sperrin- 7 seats Quota 12.5%
2019 Electorate
Catholic 75%
Protestant 24%
None/Other 1%
Candidates
2 DUP 1 UUP 1 Alliance 2 SDLP 4 SF 5 Independent
2014 Results
SF 38.9% 3 seats
SDLP 17.6% 1seat
Ind nationalist 16.5% 1 seat
DUP 21.3% 2 seats
UUP 5.8%
This DEA is very difficult to predict due to the 5 independents. The demographics indicate exactly 2 unionist and 5 nationalist quotas. Nationalist turnout was 2% below unionist in 2014 but in the 2017 Assembly election would have been 2% higher. Since this a border region Brexit may increase nationalist turnout even more so than 2017. One independent, Paul Gallagher, will likely be elected again. The DUP may struggle to reach 2 quotas. The nationalist turnout was higher in the 2017 Assembly election and if that higher turnout persists then the total unionist vote would be only 24%. If the DUP are at 19% and the UUP at 5% then the total DUP vote after transfers would be only 23% as not all UUP votes will transfer to the DUP. The 2nd DUP candidate would be 2% short of a quota. The SDLP will have only 1 quota. SF will win 3 and there is a possibility of a 4th SF seat. The SF 1st preference may be 45%. There will be a 6 % surplus from independent nationalists, SDLP and Alliance. SF would need to have good balancing among their 4 candidates and receive a minimum of that 3% of that surplus.
Prediction
1 DUP 1 SDLP 4 SF 1 Independent nationalist
Change -1 DUP +1 SF
Derg- 5 seats Quota 16.7%
2019 Electorate
Catholic 55%
Protestant 44%
None/Other 1%
Candidates
2 DUP 1 UUP 1 Alliance 1 Independent 1 SDLP 3 SF
2014 Results
SF 42.7% 3 seats
SDLP 10.9%
DUP 20.9% 1 seat
UUP 18.7% 1 seat
TUV 6.9%
There is no TUV candidate in 2019. There will be no change here.
Prediction
1 DUP 1 UUP 3 SF
Overall for this council SF will gain 2 seats and the DUP lose 2. There will also be gains for Aontu and PBP.
The final prediction for total seats in all councils is:
Net gain/loss
SF 120 +15
SDLP 70 +4
Aontu 8 +8
People Before Profit 5 +4
Total Nationalist 203 +31
Alliance 39 +7
Green 4 0
Total non-sectarian 43 +6
DUP 119 -11
UUP 70 -18
TUV 15 +2
PUP 3 -1
UKIP 0 -3
Total Unionist 207 -31
Independents 9 -6
A net gain of 31 nationalist seats and a net loss of 31 unionist seats. The non-sectarian parties gain 6 seats and the independents lose 6 seats. It appears that the 9 independents in 2019 are 4 independent nationalists and 5 independent unionists.
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