Monthly Archives: April 2019

District Council Elections 2019 #1 Lisburn-Castlereagh and North Down-Ards

23 Tuesday Apr 2019

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The District Council elections will be held on May 2nd so it is time to do an analysis for those elections. The 2014 elections were a good year for the unionist parties. Nationalist turnout was low, 7% below unionist turnout.

The seats won by party were:

DUP                           130

UUP                            88

TUV                             13

PUP                               4

UKIP                             3

Total Unionist         238

SF                              105

SDLP                           66

PBP                              1

Total Nationalist    172

Alliance                      32

Green                          3

NI21                             1

Total                           36

Independents           15

Will there be any significant changes in 2019? NI21 no longer exists and there is a new nationalist party- Aontu. There is also the major backdrop of an impending Brexit, the nature of which will greatly affect Northern Ireland. Nationalist turnout was much higher in the 2017 Assembly election, only 1% less than unionist turnout. The results in 2019 will greatly depend on whether the electorate of 2014 shows up, or that of 2017.

What is the nature of that electorate? Based on the 2011 census, all those aged 10 to 17 are now old enough to vote. Subtracted from that voting age population are the 115,000 of voting age who have died, mainly the elderly. There has also been significant inward migration of foreign nationals and significant outward migration of natives. The census gives 2 sets of data on Religion. One is Religion plus Religion brought up in. The other is stated Religion at the time of the census. My estimates for the electorate of 2019 are:

Religion and Religion Brought Up In:

Native Irish

Catholic                       42.0%

Protestant                   45.4%

None/Other                 3.6%

Non Native

Foreign Nationals        9.0%

The Catholic Protestant gap is 3.4% and this gap was almost identical to the nationalist unionist gap in the 2017 Assembly election when the gap was 4%

My estimates for the stated Religion are:

Native Irish

Catholic                       40.3%

Protestant                   40.8%

None/Other                 9.9%

Non Native

Foreign Nationals        9.0%

This dataset has been found to be more useful when questioning voters on a Border Poll. With no Brexit, the None/Other group are overwhelmingly in favour of Northern Ireland remaining in the UK.

With a Hard Brexit they are 2 to 1 in favour of a United Ireland.

I will use the Religion and Religion Brought Up In data for this election since it does not involve a Border Poll.

I estimate the actual electorate to be different for several reasons. Those with None/Other background vote at a lower rate. Also foreign nationals are only 5% of the electorate and also vote at a lower rate. If Catholic and Protestant turnout is equal in this election then this would be the voting population:

Catholic                       44.8%

Protestant                   48.2%

None/Other                 3.0%

Foreign Nationals        4.0%

Who will vote in Northern Ireland? There are also local and Euro elections in England, Scotland and Wales in May. Since Brexit has been delayed new polls have been conducted and show a massive drop in support for the Conservative Party and a large increase in support for the new Brexit Party and UKIP. Several polls have shown support for the Conservatives below 20% for the Euro election and support for UKIP and the Brexit Party between 25% and 30%. The Conservatives are being punished for failing to deliver Brexit.

However, the situation is different in Northern Ireland.

The 2019 Northern Ireland electorate is now 60% Remain in the EU. Will Northern Ireland voters punish the pro Brexit DUP?

DUP voters will not punish the DUP since polls show that 80% of their voters prefer leaving the EU with No Deal. A small percentage may defect to the UUP or Alliance-Green but the vast majority will still vote DUP. However, nationalist and nonsectarian voters may decide to punish the DUP for their support of a Hard Brexit and turn out and vote for pro EU parties. We will find out on May 2nd.

 

This first analysis includes the DEA’s of Lisburn- Castlereagh and North Down-Ards councils.

Killultagh- 5 seats   Quota 16.7%

2019 Electorate

Catholic          34%
Protestant      61.5 %

None/Other     4.5%

Candidates

3 DUP   2 UUP   1 SF 1 SDLP 1 Alliance 1 Independent

2014 Results

SF                   13.2%

SDLP              10.8%             1 seat

Alliance           7.0%

NI21                 6.2%

DUP               44.6%             3 seats

UUP               18.2%             1 seat

Based on the demographics there should be 2 nationalist quotas here. The Catholic population has increased by 2% since 2014, which should increase the SF vote to near a quota. Nationalist turnout was also 15% higher in 2017. The NI21 vote in 2014 transferred half to Alliance, ¼ to DUP and ¼ to SDLP-SF. The UUP standing 2 candidates is a poor strategy as the UUP likely will have only 1 quota. The DUP need 50% to elect 3 and there will be very few UUP or Alliance transfers (Alliance transfers were 75% nationalist and 25% DUP in 2014) so the SDLP should obtain the 5th seat on Alliance transfers.

Prediction

2 DUP 1 UUP 1 SF 1 SDLP

Change -1 DUP +1 SF

Lisburn North- 6 seats   Quota 14.3%

2019 Electorate

Catholic           26%
Protestant       67.5 %

None/Other      6.5%

Candidates

3 DUP 2 UUP 1 UKIP 1 Conservative 1 SF 1 SDLP 1 Alliance

2014 Results

SF                    7.5%

SDLP               7.0%

Alliance          10.8%          1 seat

NI21                  8.6%          1 seat

DUP               37.5%           3 seats

UUP               15.5%           1 seat

TUV                  4.5%

PUP                  3.1%

UKIP                 5.1%

Other                0.5%

Based on the demographics there could be 2 nationalist seats here. However, nationalist turnout is much lower than unionist turnout (33% vs 45%). The SF vote was higher than the SDLP vote but the SDLP candidate in 2019 is the NI21 candidate who was elected in 2014. While not all of his vote as NI21 will go to the SDLP the majority will. There are no PUP or TUV candidates in 2019 and most their votes will go to UKIP, UUP or DUP. If nationalist turnout equaled unionist turnout and the SF vote exceeded the Alliance vote then SF could elect one here. More likely the SDLP and Alliance candidates will be elected on SF transfers and Alliance will pick up enough NI21 votes to be close to a 1st count quota.

 

Prediction

3 DUP 1 UUP 1 Alliance 1 SDLP

Change -1 NI21 +1 SDLP

Lisburn South- 6 seats Quota 14.3%

2019 Electorate

Catholic          22%
Protestant      61 %

None/Other     7%

Candidates

4 DUP 2 UUP 1 TUV 1 UKIP 1 Ind Unionist 1 SF 1 SDLP 1 Alliance 1 Independent

2014 Results

SF                       0%

SDLP               6.8%

Alliance          6.9%           1 Alliance

Green              2.2%

NI21                 8.9%

DUP               53.6%          4 seats

UUP               14.0%          1 seat

TUV                  7.5%

The demographics here indicate there is well over 1 nationalist quota. For some unknown reason this DEA has the lowest nationalist turnout, only 20%, of any DEA in all of Northern Ireland that has a nationalist candidate. There are 600 EU nationals on the register here and if the SDLP can persuade even a minority of those to vote for a pro EU party and against the pro Brexit unionist parties then the SDLP vote should increase significantly. SF is not standing a candidate here.

Prediction

3 DUP 1 UUP 1 Alliance 1 SDLP

Change -1 DUP +1 SDLP

Downshire West- 5 seats Quota 16.7%

2019 Electorate

Catholic          15%
Protestant      77 %

None/Other     8%

Candidates

3 DUP 2 UUP 1 Conservative 1 Green 1 SDLP 1 Alliance

2014 Results

SDLP               4.0%

Alliance          8.5%              1 seat

Green              2.1%

NI21                 6.1%

DUP               34.6%              2 seats

UUP               27.4%              2 seats

TUV                  5.8%

UKIP                 5.0%

Conservative  6.5%

There is no nationalist quota here. Alliance will elect one on additional votes from NI21 voters and transfers from the SDLP and Greens. There are no TUV or UKIP candidates in 2019 and their votes will increase the DUP and UUP 1st preferences.

Prediction

2 DUP 2 UUP 1 Alliance

Downshire East- 5 seats Quota 16.7%

Catholic          14.5%
Protestant      78.0 %

None/Other     7.5%

Candidates

3 DUP 2 UUP 1 SDLP 1 Alliance

2014 Results

SDLP               0.0%

Alliance          11.5%         1 seat

NI21               11.6%

DUP               47.2%           3 seats

UUP               19.5%           1 UUP

TUV                  6.9%

UKIP                 3.3%

I expect no change here. Alliance should be elected on the 1st count.

Prediction    3 DUP 1 UUP 1 Alliance

Castlereagh South- 7 seats Quota 12.5%

Catholic          46.5%
Protestant      46.5%

None/Other     7%

Candidates

3 DUP 1 UUP 1 TUV 2 Alliance 1 Green 1 Independent 2 SDLP 1 SF

2014 Results

SF                      9.9%

SDLP               22.7%          2 seats

Alliance          23.3%            2 seats

NI21                 4.4%

DUP               22.2%              2 seats

UUP               11.1%              1 UUP

TUV                  6.4%

This is one of more fascinating elections for 2019. Much of this has to do with the turmoil within the Alliance Party. Both of the Alliance candidates elected in 2014, Geraldine Rice and Vasundhara Kamble, are standing for election this time but not as Alliance candidates. Rice is running as an independent and Kamble for the DUP! They also signed each other’s nomination papers so must be on good terms with each other. There are 2 different Alliance candidates. SF was only 200 votes short of a quota in 2014. It is likely that the SF candidate will be elected on the 1st count in 2019 for 2 reasons. The nationalist vote was 15 % higher in the 2017 Assembly election compared to 2014. The nationalist electorate has also increased by 2% since 2014. I expect that both the SDLP and Alliance vote will be short of 2 quotas. However, both will benefit from transfers from Rice and the Greens. The UUP 1st preference vote will be less than 10% but in 2014 half the TUV vote transferred to the UUP and there will be some transfers from Rice so the UUP should elect one. The DUP total vote will be in the 20% range and with only 1/3 of the TUV vote transferring to the DUP (as in 2014) they will be short of 2 quotas.

Prediction

1 DUP 1 UUP 2 Alliance 2 SDLP 1 SF

Change -1 DUP +1 SF.

Castlereagh East- 6 seats Quota 14.3%

Catholic          6%
Protestant     87 %

None/Other     7%

Candidates 4 DUP 1 UUP 1 TUV 2 Alliance

2014 Results

Alliance          12.5%              1 seat

Green              6.7%

NI21                 3.7%

DUP               48.4%               3 seats

UUP                 8.8%                1 seat

TUV                 10.4%              1 seat

PUP                   7.5%

Unionist            2.1%

If the Alliance party could tap into the anti Brexit vote here they could elect 2 but the combined unionist vote is over 5 quotas. The UUP vote in East Belfast has been declining since 2014 and the UUP barely edged out the 4th DUP candidate in 2014. The only way the UUP could win would be if the Alliance candidates are poorly balanced and one is eliminated before the UUP and the UUP receives enough of the Alliance surplus.

Prediction

4 DUP 1 TUV 1 Alliance

Change +1 DUP -1 UUP

Overall this council will elect 2 more SF and 1 SDLP with 3 fewer DUP

 

North Down-Ards

This council is includes all of the North Down Westminster constituency and most of the Strangford constituency.  North Down voted 53% Remain and this result could impact the vote in the council election. One surprise here is that the SDLP have essentially abandoned competing in the council, contesting only one seat in Ards Peninsula.

Ards Peninsula- 6 seats Quota 14.3%

Catholic          22.5%
Protestant      70.5%

None/Other     7%

Candidates 3 DUP 1 UUP 1 UKIP 1 Conservative 1 Alliance 1 Green 1 SDLP 1 SF

2014 Results

 

SF                      5.4%

SDLP               19.2%        1 seat

Alliance           8.1%          1 seat

NI21                 1.6%

DUP                 47.1%         3 seats

UUP                 16.6%         1 seat

Conservative    2.2%

Good nationalist turnout here. There is unlikely to be any change. The only conceivable path for a seat for SF would be if the SDLP vote declined to the 15% range and the SF vote increased to 10%. SF were 300 votes behind Alliance in the next to last count and the Alliance total included almost 200 SDLP transfers. Alliance will probably have a higher 1st count vote since they will attract anti Brexit unionists.

Prediction

3 DUP 1 UUP 1 Alliance 1 SDLP

Comber- 5 seats Quota 16.7%

Catholic          6.5%
Protestant      86.5%

None/Other     7%

Candidates 3 DUP 2 UUP 1 TUV 1 Ind unionist 1 Alliance 1 Green

2014 Results

Alliance          13.2%        1 seat

NI21                 2.7%

DUP               39.2%          2 seats

UUP                 22.1%        1 seat

TUV                   9.3%         1 seat

UKIP                  6.9%

Conservative    6.6%

The TUV barely edged out the DUP for the last seat by 40 votes. However, there is no UKIP candidate this time and much of their vote will go to the to the TUV 1st preference.

Prediction

2 DUP 1 UUP 1 TUV 1 Alliance

Newtownards- 7 seats Quota 12.5%

Catholic              9%
Protestant      82.5%

None/Other      8.5%

Candidates 3 DUP 2 UUP 1 UKIP 2 Ind unionists 2 Alliance 1 Green

2014 Results

Alliance             12.7%         1 seat

NI21                     3.1%

DUP                   35.7%          3 seats

UUP                   15.2%          2 seats

TUV                     6.4%

Unionist             25.3%         1 seat

Conservative       1.5%

There will be no change here. Menagh will top the poll and 90% of his surplus will go to unionist candidates.

Prediction

3 DUP 2 UUP 1 Unionist (Menagh) 1 Alliance

Bangor East and Donaghadee- 6 seats Quota 14.3%

Catholic               8.5%
Protestant        84%

None/Other       7.5%

Candidates 3 DUP 2 UUP 1 Conservative 1 Ind unionist 1 Alliance 1 Green

2014 Results

Alliance          9.8%           1 seat

Green              3.9%

NI21                 2.6%

DUP                32.4%         3 seats

UUP                 18.9%        1 seat

TUV                   5.3%

UKIP                  5.4%

Unionist            19.2%        1 seat

Conservative      2.6%

 

Alan Chamber was elected with over a quota as an independent in 2014 but in 2019 he is standing for the UUP. Not all of his vote will go with him but enough should to elect 2 UUP. With no UKIP or TUV candidates the DUP should elect 3.

Prediction

3 DUP 2 UUP 1 Alliance

Change +1 UUP -1 Independent

Bangor Central- 6 seats Quota 14.3%

Catholic               12%
Protestant           77%

None/Other        11%

Candidates 3 DUP 2 UUP 1 UKIP 1 Conservative 4 independents 1 Alliance 1 Green

2014 Results

Alliance             12.8%           1 seat

Green                  7.6%            1 seat

NI21                     2.7%

DUP                   28.0%            2 seats

UUP                   15.7%            1 seat

TUV                     4.6%

UKIP                    5.9%

Unionist            20.3%

Conservative      2.6%

I expect the 1st preference Alliance and Green vote to go up as more voters vote for anti-Brexit parties. The UUP elected 2 in 2014 though their 1st preference voter was slightly over 1 quota. However, they have no competition from the TUV and UKIP this time so their 1st preference vote should be higher and they will receive transfers from the many independents.

Prediction

2 DUP 2 UUP 1 Alliance 1 Green

Bangor West- 5 seats Quota 16.7%

Catholic               15%
Protestant           76%

None/Other         9%

Candidates 2 DUP 1 UUP 1 Conservative 2 Alliance 1 Green 1 SF

2014 Results

SDLP                     4.9%

Alliance              17.3%        1 seat

Green                  6.4%          1 seat

NI21                     6.4%

DUP                   31.9%           2 seats

UUP                   16.2%           1 seat

TUV                     9.1%

Unionist              3.1%

Conservative      7.2%

There is no TUV candidate this time so all DUP and UUP candidates will be elected on the 1st count. The Green candidate won only because of poor balancing between the 2 Alliance candidates, a mistake that will not be repeated this year.

Prediction

2 DUP 1 UUP 2 Alliance

Change +1 Alliance -1 Green

Holywood and Clandeboye- 5 seats Quota 16.7 %

Catholic               18.5%
Protestant           71.5%

None/Other         10%

Candidates 2 DUP 2 UUP 1 Conservative 2 Alliance 1 Green

 

 

2014 Results

SDLP                     5.0%

Alliance              22.2%          1 seat

Green                  14.9%          1 seat

NI21                     3.4%

DUP                   31.9%            2 seats

UUP                   17.8%            1 seat

Conservatives    4.3%

Unionist               0.6%

This DEA would have voted over 60% Remain and this will change the vote here. In 2014 the 2nd Alliance candidate was only 195 votes behind the 2nd DUP. With no NI21 or SDLP candidates the Green candidate should be elected on the 1st count. There will be an increased Alliance vote coming from anti-Brexit voters which will elect 2 Alliance.

Prediction

1 DUP 1 UUP 2 Alliance 1 Green

Change   -1 DUP     +1 Alliance

Overall for this council 2 more Alliance and one less each for DUP and Greens

District Council Elections 2019 # 3 and 4

02 Tuesday Apr 2019

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AntrimNewtownabbey-MidEastAntrim,
Belfast,
ArmaghBanbridgeCraigavon-NewryMourneDown,
FermanaghOmagh-MidUlster,
CausewayCoastGlens-DerryStrabane.

                                     District Council 2019

#5                     Fermanagh-Omagh & Mid Ulster

West Tyrone- 6 seats Quota 14.7%

2019 Electorate

Catholic          66.5%
Protestant      32%

None/Other     1.5%

Candidates

1 DUP 1 UUP 1 SDLP 4 SF 1 Aontu

2014 Results

SF                                44.0%            3 seats

SDLP                           15.9%            1 seat

Ind nationalist             0.9%

Alliance                         2.3%

DUP                             19.5%            1 seat

UUP                            17.4%            1 seat

The demographics indicate 2 unionist quotas here. Nationalist turnout was much lower than unionist turnout in 2014 (56% vs 68%) but even with the higher nationalist turnout in the 2017 Assembly election there will still be 2 unionist quotas. The SDLP vote will decline but should be at a quota. I believe Aontu will win a seat here as the 3 SF candidates in 2014 were not evenly balanced and one could be eliminated. There are 4 SF candidates in 2019 which will make the balancing even more difficult.

Prediction

1 DUP 1 UUP 1 SDLP 2 SF 1 Aontu

Change -1 SF +1 Aontu

Mid Tyrone- 6 seats Quota 14.3%

2019 Electorate

Catholic          74%
Protestant      25%

None/Other     1%

Candidates

1 DUP 1 UUP 1 Alliance 1 SDLP 5 SF 1 Aontu I Independent

2014 Results

SF                                57.3%            4 seats

SDLP                           12.7%            1 seat

Green                            2.7%

Alliance                         1.7%

DUP                              8.5%

UUP                            17.1%             1 seat

The demographics indicate 5 nationalist seats and this is what occurred in 2014. This a very difficult election to predict for several reasons. Aontu has a candidate. However, she was the SDLP candidate elected in 2014 and is likely to take more votes from the SDLP than SF. SF is standing 5 candidates but since 1 will be eliminated then Aontu may pick up some transfers. The SDLP received 2/3 of the Green and Alliance transfers in 2014. The nationalist vote will be increasing and it is possible that the DUP candidate will be eliminated in the next to last count. Where will their transfers go? Generally few go to any non unionist but the number that go to the SDLP or Aontu will determine the final results.

Prediction

1 UUP 1 SDLP 1 Aontu 3 SF

Change -1 SF +1 Aontu

Omagh- 6 seats Quota 14.3%

2019 Electorate

Catholic           72%
Protestant      25.5%

None/Other     2.5%

Candidates

1 DUP 1 UUP 1 TUV 1 Alliance 1 Green 2 Ind 2 SDLP 3 SF 1 Aontu 3 Ind nationalists

2014 Results

SF                                37.5%            2 seats

SDLP                           23.3%            2 seat

Ind nationalist             1.4%

Alliance                         6.3%

DUP                             20.0%            1 seat

UUP                             11.5%            1 seat

The demographics indicate only 1 unionist seat but nationalist turnout was only 37% vs 50% unionist. With the abundance of nationalist candidates in 2019 the nationalist turnout will be higher. This DEA very complicated. Two of the independent nationalists (Deehan and Donnelly) are the 2 SDLP candidates that were elected in 2014. Deehan did receive twice the vote of Donnelly. The other independent nationalist (McAnespy) was elected for SF in 2014. There is also an Aontu candidate that will draw votes from all the nationalist candidates. There are 1,000 foreign nationals on the register and if these are targeted by all the anti-Brexit candidates there could be only 1 unionist elected. The UUP vote was only half in the 2017 Assembly and Westminster election compared to 2014.

Prediction

1 DUP 1 SDLP 1 Ind Nationalist (Deehan) 2 SF 1 Aontu

Change -1 UUP -1 SDLP +1 Ind nationalist +1 Aontu

Erne North- 5 seats Quota 16.7%

 

2019 Electorate

Catholic           51%
Protestant       47%

None/Other      2%

Candidates

2 DUP 2 UUP 1 TUV I Ind unionist 1 Alliance 1 SDLP 2 SF

2014 Results

SF                                24.6%            1 seat

SDLP                           16.6%            1 seat

DUP                             38.1%            2 seats

UUP                             13.5%            1 seat

TUV                                7.2%

The demographics indicate 3 nationalist seats but obviously the election results show nowhere near 3. This is because nationalist turnout was 45% vs 69% unionist. Interestingly, in Erne East and North both nationalist and unionist turnout are 69% so it is unclear why there is so much nationalist apathy here.

Prediction

2 DUP 1 UUP 1 SDLP 1 SF

Erne West- 5 seats Quota 16.7%

2019 Electorate

Catholic           70%
Protestant       28%

None/Other      2%

Candidates

1 DUP 1 UUP I Independent unionist 1 SDLP 3 SF 1 Independent nationalist

2014 Results

SF                                39.3%            2 seats

SDLP                           13.9%            1 seat

Ind Nationalist          17.3%            1 seat

DUP                               6.1%

UUP                             23.4%            1 seat

I expect no change here. The SDLP vote may be down but they will receive some UUP transfers.

Prediction

1 UUP 1 SDLP 2 SF 1 Independent Nationalist

Erne East- 6 seats Quota 14.3%

2019 Electorate

Catholic            66%
Protestant       32.5%

None/Other      1.5%

Candidates

1 DUP 1 UUP 2 Independents 1 SDLP 4 SF 1 Aontu

2014 Results

SF                                51.2%            3 seats

SDLP                           12.9%            1 seat

DUP                            15.9%             1 seat

UUP                            16.2%            1 seat

UKIP                              3.8%

The SDLP vote will be down but they will receive a significant number of unionist transfers. Indeed, they received 1/3 of the UKIP vote in transfers in 2014 and that percentage will be even higher for UUP transfers. Former SF MLA from the 2007 election is standing for Aontu. With 4 SF candidates standing he needs to be ahead of 2 of them in order to get elected. He only polled 4.3% in the 2011 council election so this is unlikely.

Prediction

1 DUP 1 UUP 1 SDLP 3 SF

Enniskillen- 6 seats Quota 14.7%

2019 Electorate

Catholic            54%
Protestant        43%

None/Other       3%

Candidates

2 DUP 2 UUP 1 TUV 1 Green 2 Independents 1 SDLP 2 SF

SF                                21.7%            2 seats

SDLP                              9.5%            1 seat

Ind Nationalist           12.9%

Alliance                          2.2%

Green                              1.1%

DUP                              19.0%           1 seat

UUP                              24.2%           2 seats

TUV                                 9.4%

The demographics indicate almost 4 nationalist seats here but the unionist vote actually exceeds the nationalist vote due to low nationalist turnout. There will be no change here.

Prediction

2 UUP 1 DUP 1 SDLP 2 SF

Overall a good result for Aontu with 3 seats in this council.

 

Now on to the Mid Ulster DEA’s

Clogher Valley- 6 seats Quota 14.3%

2019 Electorate

Catholic            53%
Protestant        45%

None/Other       2%

Candidates

2 DUP 2 UUP 1 SDLP 1 SF

2014 Results

SF                                33.0%            2 seats

SDLP                           13.5%            1 seat

DUP                            28.4%             2 seats

UUP                            25.1%            1 seat

This DEA is unusual since the unionist vote far exceeds the nationalist vote even though the demographics indicate the vote should be the opposite of what it was. This is because the nationalist turnout was 55% vs 71% unionist. This may change in 2019 since this a border DEA that will be adversely affected by Brexit. Unionist voters do not vote for nationalist candidates so some may stay home. It is difficult to imagine the local farmers voting for unionist parties whose pro Brexit positions will result in their bankruptcy and loss of their farms. However, turkeys sometimes do vote for Christmas even though it is not in their interest to do so.

Prediction

2 DUP 1 UUP 1 SDLP 2 SF

Dungannon- 6 seats Quota 14.3%

2019 Electorate

Catholic            61%
Protestant        36%

None/Other       3%

Candidates

2 DUP 2 UUP 1 Alliance 1 SDLP 2 SF 2 Independent Nationalists

2014 Results

SF                                20.2%            1 seats

SDLP                              9.1%            1 seat

Ind Nationalist         19.6%             1 seat

Alliance                         3.4%

DUP                            20.7%            2 seats

UUP                            20.2%            1 seat

TUV                                6.7%

The demographics indicate well over 4 nationalist quotas. However, nationalist turnout was much lower at 39% vs 57% unionist. There are over 3,000 EU nationals on the register here, over 20% of the electorate. Obviously, those EU nationals are concerned about Brexit and if the SF and SDLP candidates target those voters then would be 4 nationalist quotas. There is no TUV candidate in 2019 and some of those voters may stay home. The SDLP vote will benefit from Alliance transfers and both SF and the SDLP will receive transfers from the independents surplus.

Prediction

1 DUP 1 UUP I Ind Nationalist 1 SDLP 2 SF

Change -1 DUP +1 SF

Torrent- 6 seats Quota 14.3%

2019 Electorate

Catholic            82%
Protestant        17%

None/Other       1%

Candidates

1 DUP 1 UUP 1 SDLP 4 SF 1 Independent nationalist

2014 Results

SF                                50.0%            4 seats

SDLP                           18.4%            1 seat

Nationalist                   8.1%

DUP                            10.4%

UUP                            13.4%            1 seat

Nationalist turnout was 48% vs 63% unionist. Nationalist turnout was over 80% here 15 years ago. That turnout increased in the 2017 Assembly election. There will be no change here. SF will receive enough SDLP and independent transfers to elect 4.

Prediction

1 UUP 1 SDLP 4 SF

Cookstown- 7 seats Quota 12.5%

2019 Electorate

Catholic            58%
Protestant        39%

None/Other       3%

Candidates

2 DUP 2 UUP 1 TUV 1 SDLP 3 SF

2014 Results

SF                                41.3%            3 seats

 

SDLP                           12.0%            1 seat

Alliance                        1.3%

DUP                            12.5%             1 seat

UUP                            23.7%             2 seats

TUV                               7.1%

UKIP                              2.2%

The demographics indicate almost 5 nationalist quotas but obviously with low nationalist turnout and only 4 candidates only 4 could be elected. It would be interesting to see how close SF would come to 4 quotas if they had a 4th candidate.

Prediction

1 DUP 2 UUP 1 SDLP 3 SF

Magherafelt- 5 seats Quota 16.7%

2019 Electorate

Catholic            54%
Protestant        43.5%

None/Other       2.5%

Candidates

2 DUP 1 UUP 1 SDLP 2 SF 1 Aontu

2014 Results

SF                                29.6%            2 seats

SDLP                           15.5%            1 seat

Independents              8.1%

DUP                            24.8%             1 seat

UUP                            11.2%             1 seat

TUV                               10.7%

The UUP will probably lose their seat. The UUP vote in the 2017 elections declined to a little over half of that in the 2014 council elections in Mid Ulster. The DUP should be close to 2 quotas and 2 will be elected on UUP transfers. The SDLP vote may decline but they picked up 1.5% on independent transfers and will receive UUP transfers also so should elect one. The SF candidates were well balanced so unless Aontu can take away 11% of the SF vote (likely would 32% without Aontu) then SF should win two.

Prediction

2 DUP 1 SDLP 2 SF

Change -1 UUP +1 DUP

Moyola- 5 seats Quota 16.7%

2019 Electorate

Catholic            65.5%
Protestant        33.0%

None/Other       1.5%

Candidates

1 DUP 1 UUP 1 Alliance 1 SDLP 3 SF 1 Workers Party

2014 Results

SF                                51.0%            3 seats

SDLP                           13.6%

DUP                            18.5%             1 seat

UUP                            17.0%             1 seat

The demographics indicate 2 unionist and 4 nationalist quotas but there are only 5 seats. The total unionist vote was 35.5% and 33.4% is needed for 2 quotas. However, in the 2017 Assembly election it would have been only 30% due to much higher nationalist turnout. The UUP vote has also dropped significantly since 2014. This election could see 19% DUP and 11% UUP with not enough DUP transfers to elect the UUP.  The SF vote could exceed 55 % and the SDLP will elect one on SF transfers.

Prediction

1 DUP 1 SDLP 3 SF

Change -1 UUP +1 SDLP

Carntogher- 5 seats Quota 16.7%

2019 Electorate

Catholic            74%
Protestant        25%

None/Other       1%

Candidates

1 DUP 1 UUP 1 Independent 1 SDLP 4 SF 1 Aontu

2014 Results

SF                                60.9%            3 seats

SDLP                           14.8%             1 seat

DUP                               9.0%            1 seat

UUP                               8.7%

TUV                                6.6%

The UUP vote will be lower so the DUP will retain their seat on transfers. The SDLP vote will be lower but they received enough unionist transfers to raise their total by 4% so will keep their seat.  I believe Aontu will win a seat here. SF had 2 candidates elected under a quota and it will be difficult to balance the 4 SF against only 1 Aontu and on a lower 1st preference vote.

Prediction

1 DUP 1 SDLP 2 SF 1 Aontu

Change -1 SF +1 Aontu

Overall a gain of 1 seat each for Aontu and the SDLP and a loss of 1 each for the UUP and SF.

                                   District Council 2019

#4   Armagh-Banbridge-Craigavon and Newry-Mourne-Down

Armagh- 6 seats Quota 14.3%

2019 Electorate

Catholic          71%
Protestant      27 %

None/Other     2%

Candidates

1 DUP 1 UUP 1 Alliance 2 SDLP 3 SF 1 Aontu 1 Ind nationalist

2014 Results

SF                    40.1%               2 seats

SDLP                26.8%              2 seats

Alliance             1.2%

DUP                   9.6%                1 seat

UUP                 19.3%                1 seat

UKIP                  2.1%

There were 2 unionist quotas here in 2014. The demographics indicate 5 nationalist and 2 unionist quotas and turnout was 43% nationalist vs 53 % unionist so the 2 unionist quotas occurred. Nationalist turnout was up in the 2017 Assembly election such that the unionist vote would have been between 28% and 29%. There are 1,200 EU nationals on the register and if these are targeted by the pro EU ant-Brexit SF and SDLP then I would expect 5 nationalist seats, especially since even in 2014 the total party vote for SF was just short of 3 quotas and their 3rd candidate was 490 votes behind the DUP. Of course, how the Aontu vote transfers will influence the outcome. However, the SF vote increased and that of the SDLP decreased between 2014 and 2017 so if there are not 5 nationalists elected it is the SDLP that will lose a seat and SF gain one.

Prediction

1 UUP 2 SDLP 3 SF

Change -1 DUP +1 SF

Cusher- 5 seats Quota 16.7%

2019 Electorate

Catholic          24%
Protestant      73 %

None/Other     3%

Candidates

2 DUP 2 UUP 1 Ind Unionist 1 Independent 1 Alliance 1 SDLP 1 SF

2014 Results

SF                     9.8%

SDLP                11.4%              1 seat

Alliance             1.2%

DUP                   22.0%              1 seat

UUP                   38.4%              2 seats

Unionist            18.4%              1 seat

The UUP vote will be down from 2014 as that is the trend. The SF vote may exceed the SDLP vote here for the first time ever. However, there will be such a large unionist surplus (10%) that the SDLP will keep their seat on transfers.

Prediction

1 DUP 2 UUP 1 Ind Unionist (Berry) 1 SDLP

Portadown- 6 seats Quota 14.3%

2019 Electorate

Catholic          34%
Protestant      61 %

None/Other     5%

Candidates

3 DUP 2 UUP 1 TUV 1 UKIP 1 Ind unionist 1 Alliance 1 SDLP 2 SF

2014 Results

SF                     16.7%               1 seat

SDLP                   8.7%

Alliance              2.0%

NI21                    0.8%

DUP                   32.7%              2 seats

UUP                   19.4%              2 seats

TUV                      6.8%

PUP                      5.4%

UKIP                     7.8%              1 seat

The demographics indicate 2.5 nationalist quotas but only one SF was elected since nationalist turnout was 37% vs 50% unionist. The UKIP councilor elected in 2014, David Jones, is standing as an independent in 2019. There is no PUP candidate. The 2017 Assembly election saw a significant increase in the nationalist turnout. If that higher turnout persists then there will be 2 nationalist quotas. The SF vote will be over twice that of the SDLP vote. This would seem to indicate that 2 SF will be elected. However, 2017 results show a significantly higher DUP vote and lower proportionate UUP vote. There are also 3,000 foreign nationals on the register here of which 2,700 are EU nationals. Obviously, if the pro EU anti-Brexit SF and SDLP candidates are able to target these voters the nationalist vote will be up significantly. If the DUP balance their 3 candidates well (which they did not do in 2014) then they will elect 3. The UUP should still have a quota. There will be a unionist surplus of 10% and enough should transfer to the SDLP along with some Alliance transfers, to elect one for the SDLP.

Prediction

3 DUP 1 UUP 1 SDLP 1 SF

Change -1 UKIP +1 SDLP

Craigavon- 5 seats Quota 16.7%

2019 Electorate

Catholic          56%
Protestant      39 %

None/Other     5%

Candidates

2 DUP 2 UUP 1 Alliance 2 SDLP 2 SF 1 Aontu

2014 Results

SF                    22.5%               1 seat

SDLP                15.1%              1 seat

Nationalist        5.8%

Alliance             4.7%

DUP                   25.4%             2 seats

UUP                   21.7%             1 seat

PUP                      4.9%

The demographics indicate well over 3 nationalist quotas but the unionist vote actually exceeded the nationalist vote. Nationalist turnout was 42% vs 64% unionist. However, if the 2017 Assembly turnout occurred there would have been 3 nationalists elected. There are 1,200 EU nationals on the register so if SF and the SDLP target these voters then there will be 2 SF and 1 SDLP elected. Although the UUP vote is declining their total vote should be above a quota.

Prediction

1 DUP 1 UUP 1 SDLP 2 SF

Change -1 DUP +1 SF

Lurgan- 7 seats Quota 12.5%

2019 Electorate

Catholic          61%
Protestant      36%

None/Other     3%

Candidates

2 DUP 1 UUP 1 Alliance 2 SDLP 4 SF

2014 Results

SF                    35.8%               3 seats

SDLP                14.4%              1 seat

Alliance             5.1%

DUP                  22.6%              2 seats

UUP                  12.5%              1 seat

UKIP                    2.3%

PUP                     2.8%

TUV                     3.2%

The demographics indicate 5 nationalist and 3 unionist quotas. Nationalist turnout was much lower at 38% vs 51% unionist. Nationalist turnout was much higher in the 2017 Assembly election. There are also 1,500 EU nationals on the register here which the pro EU anti-Brexit SF and SDLP candidates can target. The UUP vote may decline to 10% and the SDLP vote may decline to 10% based on trends since 2014.  The DUP will be over 2 quotas based on trends since 2014. I think it will be too difficult for SF to reach the 50% needed for 4 quotas but they will be close.

Prediction

2 DUP 1 UUP 1 SDLP 3 SF

Banbridge- 7 seats Quota 12.5%

2019 Electorate

Catholic          37.5%
Protestant       59 %

None/Other     3.5%

Candidates

2 DUP 3 UUP 1 TUV 1 Alliance 1 SDLP 2 SF

2014 Results

SF                    14.5%               1 seat

SDLP                12.3%              1 seat

Alliance             5.1%

NI21                   3.3%

DUP                  23.9%                2 seats

UUP                  41.0%                3 seats

The demographics indicate 3 nationalist quotas but nationalist turnout was 39% vs 51% unionist. The turnout was higher in 2017 and the combined SF-SDLP vote would have been 30%. However, that is still far from 3 quotas. The SF vote will be up significantly and the SDLP vote may only be at one quota. If the Alliance vote increases to 8% (some NI21 from 2014) then Alliance would be elected on SF transfers from the SF surplus. The DUP vote will be over 2 quotas based on trends since 2014 and the UUP will be less than 3 quotas.

Prediction

2 DUP 2 UUP 1 Alliance 1 SDLP 1 SF

Change -1 UUP +1 Alliance

Lagan River- 5 seats Quota 16.7%

2019 Electorate

Catholic          15%
Protestant      80 %

None/Other     5%

Candidates

3 DUP 2 UUP 1 UKIP 1TUV 1 Ind unionist 1 Alliance 1 SDLP 1 SF

2014 Results

SF                     3.3%

SDLP                3.8%

Alliance           6.2%

NI21                 3.4%

DUP                40.7%                3 seats

UUP                31.4%                2 seats

TUV                   9.1%

Unionist            2.1%

There could be a nationalist seat here but nationalist turnout is so low, 29% vs 53% unionist, that this will not occur. The combined SF-SDLP vote will not exceed 9%. If the Alliance vote were higher they could be elected on nationalist transfers but they did not receive enough of those transfers in 2014.

Prediction

3 DUP 2 UUP

Overall for this council a decline in unionist representation with 2 more SF, 1 SDLP and 1 Alliance elected.

 

Now on to the Newry-Mourne-Down council

Slieve Gullion- 7 seats Quota 12.5%

2019 Electorate

Catholic          85%
Protestant      14 %

None/Other     1%

Candidates

1 DUP 1 UUP 1 Alliance 2 SDLP 5 SF

2014 Results

SF                    62.2%               4 seats

SDLP                23.3%              2 seats

DUP                   3.4%

UUP                 11.1%               1 seat

The SDLP won 2 seats because of poor balancing by SF and UUP transfers. Without the UUP transfers SF would have won a 5th seat by 80 votes. The SF vote will be higher and the SDLP vote lower based on the 2017 Assembly election results. SF will definitely be over 5 quotas and will win 5 seats.  However, the SDLP could still keep their 2 seats depending on turnout. The nationalist turnout was higher in the 2017 Assembly election and the unionist vote here would have been 13% based on that turnout. If it drops any further (to 12.5%) then who wins the 7th seat will depend on transfers. This is a border region that will be very negatively affected by Brexit so nationalist turnout may go up. There are also 400 EU nationals on the register and if they vote in any significant numbers it will determine the outcome.

Prediction

2 SDLP 5 SF

Change -1 UUP +1 SF

Newry- 6 seats Quota 14.3%

2019 Electorate

Catholic          90%
Protestant        8 %

None/Other     2%

Candidates

1 UUP 1 Alliance 2 SDLP 4 SF 1 Ind nationalist

2014 Results

SF                    51.7%               4 seats

SDLP                   31.6%              2 seats

Nationalist        12.3%

UUP                      4.4%

I do not expect any change here. SF will elect all 4 and the SDLP 2. The SDLP may be less than 2 quotas but will reach 2 quotas on Alliance and UUP transfers. There are also 1,600 EU nationals on the register here.

Prediction

2 SDLP 4 SF

Crotlieve- 6 seats Quota 14.3%

2019 Electorate

Catholic             86%
Protestant        12 %

None/Other       2%

Candidates

1 DUP 1 UUP 1 Alliance 3 Independents 3 SDLP 4 SF

2014 Results

SF                             34.5%              2 seats

SDLP                        43.4%              3 seats

Independent          10.3%              1 seat

UUP                           9.5%

DUP                           2.3%

The SDLP vote will be down and less than 3 quotas. The 2017 elections indicate the SDLP and SF percentages will be reversed so SF will have 3 1st preference quotas though all 3 will not be elected until 1 of the 4 SF candidates is eliminated. If the independent elected in 2014 OR the unionist candidates are eliminated then the SDLP will still elect 3.

Prediction

3 SDLP 3 SF

Change -1 Independent +1 SF

The Mournes- 7 seats Quota 12.5%

2019 Electorate

Catholic             59.5%
Protestant         37.5 %

None/Other       3%

Candidates

1 DUP 1 UUP 1 Ind Unionist 1 Alliance 2 SDLP 3 SF

2014 Results

SF                             28.5%                2 seats

SDLP                        23.8%                2 seats

Alliance                      2.4%

NI21                            1.4%

UUP                           17.0%               1 seat

DUP                             9.0%                1 seat

UKIP                           18.1%               1 seat

The demographics indicate almost 5 nationalist quotas. However, nationalist turnout was only 46% vs 56% unionist. Nationalist turnout was higher in the 2017 Assembly elections but total unionist vote would have been 40%, which is still over 3 quotas. The SF vote will be higher and the SDLP vote will be less than 2 quotas but the SDLP will receive enough Alliance and unionist transfers to keep their 2 seats. The UKIP candidate in 2014 is standing as an independent in 2019.

Prediction

1 DUP 1 UUP 1 Ind Unionist 2 SDLP 2 SF

Slieve Croob- 5 seats Quota 16.7%

2019 Electorate

Catholic             65%
Protestant         31.5 %

None/Other       3.5%

Candidates

1 DUP 1 UUP 1 Alliance 2 SDLP 3 SF 1 Aontu

2014 Results

SF                             32.5%                2 seats

SDLP                        24.9%                1 seat

Alliance                   10.0%                1 seat

NI21                            1.6%

UUP                          10.4%

DUP                          14.8%                1 seat

UKIP                            5.9%

Based on trends since 2014 and looking at the 2017 Assembly and Westminster results The SF vote will be 40% and the SDLP vote 20%.  SF will be too far short of 3 quotas even with perfect balancing. The UUP vote will be down based on trends since 2014 and will be less than Alliance 1st preference. Alliance should elect one on UUP and some SDLP transfers.

Prediction

1 DUP 1 Alliance 1 SDLP 2 SF

Downpatrick- 5 seats Quota 16.7%

2019 Electorate

Catholic             86%
Protestant         11 %

None/Other       3%

Candidates

1 DUP 1 UUP 1 Green 1 Alliance 1 Independent 3 SDLP 2 SF 1 Aontu

2014 Results

SF                             28.3%                1 seat

SDLP                        50.9%                3 seats

Independent           12.9%               1 seat

UUP                             5.7%

DUP                             2.2%

The SF vote will certainly be higher since 2014 and will be over 2 quotas (33.4%). The Independent elected in 2014 (Enright) was the Green candidate in 2011. There was no Alliance candidate in 2014 nor a Green candidate. If the SDLP vote is 45% and the SF vote 35% can the SDLP still elect 3? They did receive 60% the unionist transfers vs 40% for Enright. With Alliance and Greens competing Enright will have a lower 1st preference. Since the SDLP will be picking up 4% from unionist transfers as well as some SF surplus transfers they will probably elect 3 again. Only poor balancing could alter this.

Prediction

3 SDLP 2 SF

Change -1 Independent +1 SF

Rowallane- 5 seats Quota 16.7%

2019 Electorate

Catholic             36%
Protestant         59 %

None/Other       5%

Candidates

2 DUP 2 UUP 1 Independent 1 Green 1 Alliance 1 SDLP 1 SF 1 Aontu

2014 Results

SF                               8.0%

SDLP                        19.0%                1 seat

Nationalist                2.2%

Alliance                     7.3%                1 seat

NI21                            3.9%

UUP                          26.2%               1 seat

DUP                          27.3%               2 seats

TUV                             6.2%

The demographics indicate 2 nationalist quotas. Nationalist turnout was 40% vs 45% unionist in 2014 but it was identical in the 2017 Assembly election. The SDLP vote will be down and the SF vote up though the SF increase will be muted by the presence of the Aontu candidate. The total nationalist vote may reach 2 quotas on 1st preference. The UUP vote will be down and the DUP vote up. Alliance will add half of the NI21 vote from 2014. The UUP should still elect 2 on TUV transfers. Alliance defeated the UUP for the 5th seat in 2014 by only 80 votes which included over 400 nationalist transfers. Those transfers will not be available in this election.

Prediction

2 DUP 1 UUP 1 SDLP 1 SF

Change -1 Alliance +1 SF

 

District Council 2019

                                         #3   Belfast

Belfast should be interesting in 2019. Nationalist turnout was quite low in 2014 and unionist turnout was high due to the flag controversy. NI21 no longer exists so their 2.7% of the vote will go elsewhere. The vote of People Before Profit has increased dramatically. It was only 5% in West Belfast in 2014 and increased to 23% in the 2016 Assembly election only to fall back to 15% in the 2017 Assembly election and 10.4% in the 2017 Westminster election. What their vote is in 2019 will greatly determine the results in the 3 DEA’s within West Belfast. The presence of the new republican party Aontu will also influence the results.

This was the distribution of councilors by party after the election:

SF                   19

SDLP                7

PBP                  1

Green              1

Alliance           8

UUP                 7

DUP                13

PUP                   3

TUV                   1

 

Castle- 6 seats Quota 14.3%

2019 Electorate

Catholic          54%
Protestant      40 %

None/Other     6%

Candidates

2 DUP 1 UUP 1 Green 1 Alliance 2 SDLP 2 SF 1 PBP 1 WP 2 Ind Nationalists

2014 Results

SF                     25.1%               1 seat

 

SDLP                 16.6%               1 seat

Nationalist       3.9%

Alliance             9.6%                 1 seat

NI21                  3.2%

DUP                   24.7%               2 seats

UUP                   10.1%               1 seat

PUP                      6.2%

The nationalist electorate is almost 4 quotas but only 2 were elected. This was because of low turnout and lack of transfers to SF and good balancing among all 3 unionists elected. The 2nd SF candidate was only 112 votes behind the UUP on the last count and all 3 unionists were elected under quota. The result will be different in 2019. In North Belfast in 2014 the nationalist vote was 39% but in the 2017 Assembly and Westminster elections it was 47%. If that higher turnout persists then the total nationalist 1st preference vote in Castle DEA will be 55%. There are essentially 4 SDLP candidates since the 2 independent nationalist were the 2 SDLP candidates in 2014. PBP is also standing. The SF vote will be over 30% so both will be elected. There is no PUP candidate in 2019 but in 2014 their vote split evenly between the UUP and DUP. The UUP vote has been declining since 2014 and will be less than 10%, even after taking into account the extra votes from the absence of a PUP candidate.  The majority of the NI21 vote transferred to Alliance so their 1st preference vote will be over 11%. Alliance will be elected since the UUP will be eliminated and receive some of their transfers. 2 DUP will also be elected on UUP transfers. There are essentially 4 SDLP candidates and their combined 1st preference should be over 20%.  Pat Convery received twice the vote of Mullaghan in 2014. It is likely that one of the 2 official SDLP candidates will be elected after the other 3 are eliminated. Some of their transfers will go to Alliance and Alliance should be over a quota.

Prediction

2 DUP 1 Alliance 1 SDLP 2 SF

Change -1 UUP +1 SF

Oldpark- 6 seats Quota 14.3%

2019 Electorate

Catholic          67%
Protestant      29.5 %

None/Other     3.5%

Candidates

2 DUP 1 UUP 1 PUP 1 Green 1 Alliance 1 SDLP 4 SF 1 PBP 1 WP

2014 Results

SF                    44.6%               3 seats

SDLP                 8.8%               1 seat

Nationalist      11.7%

Alliance             3.0%

DUP                18.1%                1 seat

UUP                 3.5%

PUP                  7.4%                  1 seat

TUV                  3.0%

This results in this DEA will also change if the nationalist turnout is as high as it was in the 2017 Assembly and Westminster elections. The nationalist vote would be over 5 quotas (71.4%). The DUP would still have 1 quota. The SF vote will be over 50% and with 4 balanced candidates they all be will be elected on PBP transfers. The SDLP vote may be less than the PBP vote but they will receive significant transfers from Alliance, Green, WP and UUP and should win on the last count.

Prediction

1 DUP 1 SDLP 4 SF

Change -1 PUP +1 SF

Court- 6 seats Quota 14.3%

2019 Electorate

Catholic          38%
Protestant      58 %

None/Other     4%

Candidates

3 DUP 1 UUP 1 PUP 1 TUV I Ind unionist 1 Green 1 Alliance 1 SDLP 2 SF 1 PBP 1 WP

2014 Results

SF                    24.0%               2 seats

SDLP                 4.9%

Nationalist       5.0%

Alliance             1.1%

NI21                   1.0%

DUP                 31.1%                2 seats

UUP                   5.7%

PUP                  19.8%                1 seat

TUV                    7.3%                1 seat

Nationalist turnout was lower than unionist turnout in 2014. Unionist turnout was high due to the flag controversy. However, in the 2017 Assembly election nationalist turnout was so much higher that the nationalist vote would have been 40% with the same unionist turnout. In 2017 unionist turnout was actually lower than the 2014 council election by a few hundred votes. So if a council election had been held the same day in 2017 the nationalist vote would have been 43%. If the nationalist turnout remains high and the unionist turnout is slightly lower (due to demographic changes over the past 5 years) then only 3 unionists will be elected. SF is only standing 2 and their 1st preference vote should equal 30% so 2 will be elected. It is difficult to predict Whether PBP or the SDLP will have the advantage for the 3rd nationalist seat. The SDLP will receive Alliance, Green, WP and UUP transfers but their 1st preference vote may be only 5%. If PBP 1st preference vote is over 7% then they will have the advantage. The PUP will be over a quota and the DUP should be near 2 quotas and will elect 2 on UUP transfers. I do not see how the TUV can win a seat. The independent unionist is the TUV councilor elected in 2014 and likely they will not transfer well to each other depending on who is eliminated first.

Prediction

2 DUP 1 PUP 2 SF 1 PBP

Change -1 TUV +1 PBP

Black Mountain- 7 seats Quota 12.5%

2019 Electorate

Catholic           95%
Protestant        3.5 %

None/Other     1.5%

Candidates

1 Green 1 Alliance 1 SDLP 6 SF 1 Aontu 1 PBP 1 WP

2014 Results

SF                    68.0%               5 seats

SDLP                10.0%              1 seat

Nationalist      20.6%              1 seat (PBP)

Alliance             0.8%

NI21                   0.6%

The PBP vote was 12% in 2014 and based on the 2017 Westminster or Assembly election will be well above a quota. The SDLP vote could be less than 10% but they will receive 1% from the 2014 Alliance and NI21 vote as well as some PBP transfers. The SF vote will be less than 60% due to the increased PBP vote since 2014 as well as the presence of Aontu and may not elect 5. The Eirigi vote was 7.5% in 2014 and it is not clear where this vote will go. Some will go to PBP and some to Aontu. Since it will be difficult to balance 6 candidates and taking into account the changes that occurred in the 2017 I believe SF will elect 4 and Aontu 1. It is also possible that the SDLP could lose their seat and SF elect 5. This is not an easy DEA to predict.

Prediction

1 SDLP 4 SF 1 Aontu 1 PBP

Collin- 6 seats Quota 14.7%

2019 Electorate

Catholic          88%
Protestant      10 %

None/Other     2%

Candidates

1 DUP 1 UUP 1 Green 1 Alliance 1 SDLP 5 SF 1 PBP 1 Aontu 1 WP

2014 Results

SF                    67.4%               5 seats

SDLP               14.1%               1 seat

Nationalist      6.5%

Alliance            3.8%

NI21                  3.8%

UUP                   4.3%

The SDLP vote may be lower but they will receive many Alliance and unionist transfers so will still elect one. Either Aontu or PBP could take the 5th SF seat here. Based on the Assembly vote PBP should be near a quota and should win a seat with Aontu transfers.

Prediction

1 SDLP 4 SF 1 PBP

Change -1 SF +1 PBP

Botanic- 5 seats Quota 16.7%

2019 Electorate

Catholic              48%
Protestant          39 %

None/Other       13%

Candidates

2 DUP 1 UUP 1 PUP 1 TUV 1 Ind unionist 1 Green 2 Alliance 1 SDLP I Ind nationalist 2 SF 1 PBP 1 WP

2014 Results

SF                        14.7%               1 seat

SDLP                   16.7%               1 seat

Nationalist           3.0%

Alliance              17.9%               1 seat

Green                   8.6%

NI21                      5.5%

UUP                      8.5%               1 seat

DUP                     14.1%              1 seat

TUV                        5.7%

PUP                        3.9%

Conservative        1.4%

There was a 6% decline in the unionist vote from the 2014 election to the 2017 Assembly election in South Belfast. If that higher nationalist-Alliance-Green turnout persists then the total unionist vote would be less than 30% here. SF votes should exceed 1 quota. The Green vote has increased significantly since 2014 and their 1st preference vote will be over 10%. They will receive transfers from the SDLP, Alliance, PBP and will receive some of the NI21 vote from 2014. The UUP vote has been declining and it possible that they could be eliminated before the TUV or PUP. Nevertheless, with a total unionist 1st preference less than 30% only one unionist will be elected which will be DUP. There is a remote chance that Alliance could win 2 on Green transfers but it would require perfect balancing and I believe the Green 1st preference vote will be too high for 2 Alliance to be elected. This DEA also has 3,500 foreign nationals on the register including 2,000 EU nationals. Obviously, any pro EU, anti-Brexit candidate who can successfully target those voters will have a major advantage.

Prediction

1 DUP 1 Alliance 1 Green 1 SDLP 1 SF

Change -1 UUP +1 Green

Balmoral- 5 seats Quota 16.7%

2019 Electorate

Catholic              47%
Protestant          47 %

None/Other         6%

Candidates

2 DUP 1 UUP 1 UKIP 1 Green 1 Alliance 2 SDLP 1 SF 1 PBP

2014 Results

SF                        17.1%               1 seat

SDLP                   23.7%               1 seat

Nationalist           0.8%

Alliance              13.9%               1 seat

Green                   2.5%

NI21                      3.7%

UUP                      9.9%               1 seat

DUP                     21.6%              1 seat

PUP                        6.0%

Conservative        0.8%

 

The nationalist-Alliance-Green turnout was much higher in the 2017 Assembly and Westminster elections. If that higher turnout persists then the total 1st preference unionist vote would be 32% or just short of 2 quotas. SF will be elected on the 1st count with a significant surplus. Alliance should be elected on the 1st count since they will pick up much of the 2014 NI21 vote. The UUP vote will be down significantly and may be only 8% or less. If that occurs then the 2 DUP candidates will be ahead of the UUP who will be eliminated. The SDLP could elect 2 if they have good balancing since they will receive SF, PBP, Alliance and Green transfers and if the UUP are eliminated UUP transfers.

Prediction

1 DUP 1 Alliance 2 SDLP 1 SF

Change -1 UUP +1 SDLP

Lisnasharragh- 6 seats Quota 14.3%

2019 Electorate

Catholic              33%
Protestant          59 %

None/Other         8%

Candidates

3 DUP 2 UUP 1 UKIP 1 PUP 1 Green 2 Alliance 1 Ind 1 SDLP 1 SF 1 PBP I Ind nationalist

2014 Results

SF                        6.1%

SDLP                   8.4%                1 seat

Alliance              24.6%              2 seats

Green                   4.6%

NI21                      4.5%

UUP                      13.0%             1 seat

DUP                     32.8%              2 seats

PUP                        6.0%

The nationalist vote should be up significantly to the 20% range. Alliance will pick up enough NI21 votes that they may have 2 1st preference quota. However, based on the 2017 Assembly results the Green vote may be as high as 10% and if the Alliance candidates are not perfectly balanced then one will be eliminated The SF vote may be close the SDLP vote since the independent nationalist Kate Mullan was the SDLP councilor elected in 2014. While much of her transfers will go to the SDLP some may go to SF or Alliance. The UUP vote will be down but they should be elected on PUP transfers of which they received half in 2014. I believe the SDLP will win the last seat with the help of unionist transfers.

Prediction

2 DUP 1 UUP 1 Alliance 1 Green 1 SDLP

Change -1 Alliance +1 Green

Titanic- 6 seats Quota 14.3%

2019 Electorate

Catholic                25%
Protestant            63 %

None/Other         12%

Candidates

3 DUP 2 UUP 1 UKIP 1 PUP 1 Green 2 Alliance 1 Ind 1 SF

2014 Results

SF                        11.7%           1 seat

SDLP                     1.0%

WP                        0.7%

Socialist                1.1%

Alliance               15.1%           1 seat

Green                   2.1%

NI21                      2.6%

UUP                     16.7%             1 seat

DUP                     26.1%              2 seats

PUP                      11.6%              1 seat

TUV                         5.8%

UKIP                        5.5%

This is an area where the demographics are changing rapidly. The native Protestant population is moving out and there has been a large influx of foreign nationals. There are 2,500 foreign nationals on the register of which 1,600 are EU nationals. Many are not registered and that total adult population is somewhere between 15% and 20% of the total population. The total non unionist vote was 34% and this would have been higher in the 2017 Assembly election. There are only 3 anti-Brexit pro EU parties competing. SF could have a 1st count quota if they target the large foreign national electorate, most of whom are very worried about Brexit. Alliance could also elect 2 if they target the same foreign national electorate. The UUP have 2 candidates, which is a poor strategy since the UUP may be slightly short of one quota. They should still elect one on UKIP transfers and intra UUP transfers. The PUP should also elect one on UKIP transfers and some of the2014 TUV vote which they will receive on 1st preference or transfers.

Prediction

2 DUP 1 PUP 1 UUP 1 Alliance 1 SF

Ormiston- 7 seats Quota 12.5%

2019 Electorate

Catholic                14%
Protestant            78 %

None/Other           8%

Candidates

3 DUP 2 UUP 1 UKIP 1 PUP 1 Green 3 Alliance 1 SF

2014 Results

SF                        0.4%

SDLP                    0.7%

Alliance              27.5%           2 seats

Green                   6.5%            1 seat

NI21                      3.4%

UUP                     19.6%             2 seat

DUP                     26.8%             2 seats

PUP                        4.0%

TUV                        5.0%

UKIP                       4.8%

Conservative         1.3%

The Alliance Party will be targeting the Green seat. In 2014 at the 10th count their 3rd candidate was only 57 votes behind the Greens and the 2 other Alliance candidates each had 300 more votes than the Green candidate. It was only by such poor balancing that Alliance lost the 3rd seat. This mistake is unlikely to be repeated again in 2019. The UUP vote will be down be they should still elect 2 on transfers from the smaller unionist parties.

Prediction

2 DUP 2 UUP 3 Alliance

Change -1 Green +1 Alliance

Overall the new Belfast council will be:

SF                        19

SDLP                     8

Aontu                  1

PBP                      3

Alliance               9

Green                   1

DUP                    13

UUP                      5

PUP                       1

I am least confident in the 3rd nationalist seat in Court because of the history of poor intra nationalist transfers. SF could also have 5 in Black Mountain but that will not affect the total number of nationalists. Belfast will either be a narrow nationalist majority council or they will hold half the seats. This outcome will only occur if nationalist turnout equals the 2017 Assembly level and EU and other foreign nationals are targeted.

Overall for this council a very good result with 4 extra seats for SF. 

 District Council 2019

#6       Causeway Coast & Glens—Derry & Strabane

The Glens- 5 seats Quota 16.7%

2019 Electorate

Catholic          71%
Protestant      27%

None/Other     2%

Candidates

1 DUP 1 UUP 1 SDLP 3 SF 1 Independent nationalist

2014 Results

SF                                35.2%            2 seats

SDLP                           18.7%            1 seat

Ind nationalist           22.5%            1 seat

Alliance                         2.0%

DUP                               7.6%

UUP                            10.4%            1 seat

TUV                               3.5%

The demographics indicate 2 unionist quotas but unionist turnout is much lower than nationalist turnout (38% vs 55%). The independent, Padraig McShane, who was elected in 2014 is not standing in 2019. I expect most of this vote to go to SF. The UUP vote may be lower but they will benefit from a few nationalist transfers and keep the seat.

Prediction

1 UUP 1 SDLP 3 SF

Change -1 independent +1 SF

Ballymoney- 7 seats Quota 12.5%

 

 

2019 Electorate

Catholic           31%
Protestant      65.5%

None/Other     3.5%

Candidates

3 DUP 2 UUP 2 TUV 1 Ind unionist 1 Alliance 2 SF

2014 Results

SF                                18.9%        1 seat

SDLP                              5.9%

Ind nationalist             2.4%

Alliance                         3.7%

DUP                             33.1%        3 seats

UUP                             16.7%         2 seats

TUV                              17.9%         1 seat

Conservative                 1.6%

The demographics indicate 2.5 nationalist quotas here but only 1 SF was elected in 2014 due to low nationalist turnout and lack of transfers from the SDLP. SF lost the last seat to the DUP by only 9 votes. In a major surprise the SDLP is not even contesting this DEA while Alliance is. The UUP vote has declined significantly since 2014 in North Antrim so I expect the UUP to elect only one.

Prediction

3 DUP 1 UUP 1 TUV 2 SF

Change -1 UUP +1 SF

Causeway- 7 seats Quota 7.5%

2019 Electorate

Catholic           21.5%
Protestant       73.5%

None/Other      5%

Candidates

3 DUP 2 UUP 2 TUV 1 UKIP 1 Ind unionist 1 Alliance 1 Green 1 SDLP 1 SF

2014 Results

SF                                   0%

SDLP                              9.4%          1 seat

Alliance                       10.1%          1 seat

NI21                               3.6%

DUP                             31.2%         2 seats

UUP                             25.6%         2 seats

TUV                              10.5%         1 seat

UKIP                               3.1%

Unionist                        6.6%

There are 1.75 nationalist quotas based on the demographics but there was less than one in 2014 though the SDLP was elected on transfers under a quota and 100 votes ahead of the DUP candidate. Nationalist turnout was 27% vs 47% unionist. SF will compete in 2019.

Prediction

2 DUP 2 UUP 1 TUV 1 Alliance 1 SDLP

Coleraine- 6 seats Quota 14.3%

2019 Electorate

Catholic            26%
Protestant       68%

None/Other      6%

Candidates

3 DUP 2 UUP 1 PUP 1 UKIP 1 Conservative 1 Alliance 1 SDLP 1 SF

2014 Results

SF                                   5.8%

SDLP                             11.0%           1 seat

Alliance                          6.2%

NI21                               1.7%

DUP                              33.2%           2 seats

UUP                              18.0%           2 seats

TUV                                 5.0%

PUP                               11.8%           1 seat

UKIP                                 2.9%

Unionist                          4.3%

The demographics indicate almost 2 nationalist quotas but nationalist turnout is only 28% versus 40% unionist. Nationalist turnout was higher in the 2017 Assembly election. The UUP vote is slowly declining and I believe the 2nd UUP candidate will be eliminated and some of those transfers will go to Alliance.

Prediction

2 DUP 1 UUP 1 PUP 1 Alliance 1 SDLP

Change -1 UUP +1 Alliance

Bann- 5 seats Quota 16.7%

2019 Electorate

Catholic           35.5%
Protestant       61.5%

None/Other      3.0%

Candidates

3 DUP 2 UUP 1 TUV 1 PUP 1 Alliance 1 SDLP 1 SF

2014 Results

SF                                   15.1%

SDLP                              13.3%          1 seat

Alliance                           3.6%

DUP                               29.1%         2 seats

UUP                               30.5%         2 seats

TUV                                 8.4%

There are over 2 nationalist quotas based on demographics. A nationalist turnout of 47% versus 60% unionist resulted in only 1 SDLP seat. Turnout was higher in the 2017 Assembly election. I expect that SF will be at a quota on the 1st count. The SDLP candidate will be elected on Alliance transfers.

Prediction

1 DUP 2 UUP 1 SDLP 1 SF

Change -1 DUP +1 SF

Limavady- 5 seats Quota 16.7%

2019 Electorate

Catholic           47.5%
Protestant       50.0%

None/Other      2.5%

Candidates

3 DUP 1 UUP 1 TUV 1 Alliance 1 SDLP 1 SF 1 Aontu

2014 Results

SF                                  21.3%           1 seat

SDLP                              15.4%          1 seat

 

DUP                             40.2%         2 seats

UUP                             15.4%         1 seats

TUV                              5.9%

UKIP                             1.9%

The demographics indicate that the nationalist and unionist vote should be nearly equal but nationalist turnout was 35% versus 54% unionist. The main factor here is the Aontu candidate Francie Brolly who is a former SF MLA and councilor. The presence of an Alliance candidate here should help both the SDLP and UUP with transfers. If the Aontu vote exceed the SF vote or the reverse then that candidate will be elected. I will wildly speculate here and predict an Aontu win.

Prediction

2 DUP 1 UUP 1 SDLP 1 Aontu

Change -1 SF +1 Aontu

Benbradagh- 5 seats Quota 16.7%

2019 Electorate

Catholic           71.5%
Protestant       27%

None/Other      1.5%

Candidates

1 DUP 1 UUP 1 TUV 1 Alliance 1 SDLP 3 SF 1 Aontu

2014 Results

SF                                   49.5%          3 seats

SDLP                              18.2%          1 seat

DUP                               12.7%

TUV                                19.6%          1 seat

Both the TUV and SDLP will be above a quota. It is possible that the SDLP could be below a quota but will be elected on Alliance and a few DUP transfers. It will be difficult for SF to win 3 seats here because of Aontu. Indeed, the DUP may encourage their voters to give Aontu a terminal transfer to defeat the 3rd SF candidate.

Prediction

1 TUV 1 SDLP 2 SF 1 Aontu

Change

-1 SF +1 Aontu

Overall for this council 2 SF gains in the eastern DEA’s but 2 losses to Aontu in the western DEA’s. Also a gain of one seat for Alliance.

 

Derry & Strabane

Faughan- 5 seats Quota 16.7%

2019 Electorate

Catholic           56%
Protestant       41%

None/Other      3%

Candidates

2 DUP 1 UUP 1 Alliance 3 SDLP 2 SF 1 Independent

2014 Results

SF                                   19.8%           1 seat

SDLP                              23.3%           2 seats

Ind nationalist               8%

Alliance                           5.3%

DUP                               31.9%         2 seats

UUP                                 8.8%

UKIP                                2.9%

SF may improve on their vote this year. There will be 2 DUP elected. The SDLP should still elect 2 since they will receive Alliance, Independent and UUP transfers.

Prediction

2 DUP 2 SDLP 1 SF

Waterside- 7 seats Quota 12.5%

2019 Electorate

Catholic           47%
Protestant       50%

None/Other      3%

Candidates

3 DUP 1 UUP 1 Alliance 2 SDLP 2 SF 1 PBP

2014 Results

SF                                   19.5%           1 seat

SDLP                               22.3%           2 seats

Ind nationalist                 1.3%

Alliance                             2.7%

DUP                                 28.3%         3 seats

UUP                                 17.0%          1 seat

UKIP                                   5.8%

PUP                                    3.1%

This DEA was once strongly unionist but the demographics have changed dramatically over the past 40 years such that there is now near parity between the nationalist and unionist electorate. Nationalist turnout was 43% vs 48% unionist in 2014 but probably equal in the 2017 Assembly election.  It is possible that there could be 4 nationalists elected. SF has increased their share of the nationalist vote since 2014 and it is likely that the SF vote will slightly exceed the SDLP vote. This is a border region where Brexit is a much more serious issue than in someplace such as Larne. Due to the disruptive effects that Brexit will have here the nationalist vote will be higher and could exceed unionist turnout. There are no UKIP or PUP candidates in 2019 and some of those voters will stay home, depressing the unionist turnout. The demographics show that the nationalist vote would be 2% higher compared to 5 years ago due to these changes. If the total unionist vote is 49% and the nationalist vote 47 % and Alliance 4% then 2 SF and 2 SDLP will be elected. One reason is that the UUP are standing only 1 candidate and will be 5% above the quota. So if the DUP vote is 32% they need all those UUP votes to transfer to the DUP. However, they will not since 1% will go the SDLP. If the SF vote is 24% and the SDLP vote 23% after PBP is eliminated then the SDLP will elect 2 since they will receive UUP and Alliance transfers. While SF will receive few Alliance transfer (0.5%) the DUP will receive few also (0.5%). SF may be just short of 2 quotas but the DUP will be even further away from 3.

Prediction

2 DUP 1 UUP 2 SDLP 2 SF

Change -1 DUP +1 SF

Ballyarnett- 6 seats Quota 14.3%

2019 Electorate

Catholic           95%
Protestant        4%

None/Other     1%

Candidates

1 Alliance 3 SDLP 4 SF 1 Aontu 1 PBP 1 Independent

2014 Results

SF                                   42.1%            3 seats

SDLP                               42.6%           2 seats

Ind nationalist              13.5%           1 seat

Alliance                           1.8%

The SDLP elected only 2 in 2014 despite having 3 1st preference quotas. The SDLP vote will be lower in 2019 but should be well above the 28.6% needed for 2 quotas. The Aontu candidate is a prominent local physician and will attract independent, SF and SDLP votes and should win a seat. SF will keep their 3 seats.

Prediction

2 SDLP 3 SF 1 Aontu

Change -1 Independent +1 Aontu

Foyleside- 5 seats Quota 16.7%

2019 Electorate

Catholic           91%
Protestant        6%

None/Other     3%

Candidates

1 Alliance 3 SDLP 3 SF 1 PBP 1 Independent

2014 Results

SF                                   36.0%            2 seats

SDLP                               41.1%           2 seats

Ind nationalist              20.8%           1 seat

Alliance                           2.2%

The SDLP vote will be down and the SF vote up but the SDLP will still have 2 quotas. The independent is former SDLP. PBP will receive much of the independent nationalist vote and could win on transfers.

Prediction

2 SF 2 SDLP 1 PBP

Change -1 Independent +1 PBP

The Moor- 5 seats Quota 16.7%

2019 Electorate

Catholic           95%
Protestant        5.5%

None/Other     1.5%

Candidates

1 DUP 1 Alliance 2 SDLP 4 SF 1 PBP 2 Independent

2014 Results

SF                                   51.5%            3 seats

SDLP                               30.1%           1 seats

Ind nationalist              18.5%           1 seat

I would expect the SF vote to be up and the SDLP vote to be down but no change if the candidates were the same as in 2014. However, the well-known Eamonn McCann is standing for PBP. One of the independents, Gary Donnelly was elected in 2014 and the other independent is former SDLP.  Donnelly may have received much of the PBP vote in 2014. The SDLP will be well above 1 quota but it will be difficult for SF to win 3 with McCann standing. However, I believe SF will win 3 and McCann will win over Donnelly.

Prediction

1 SDLP 3 SF 1 PBP

Change -1 Independent +1 PBP.

Sperrin- 7 seats Quota 12.5%

2019 Electorate

Catholic           75%
Protestant       24%

None/Other     1%

Candidates

2 DUP 1 UUP 1 Alliance 2 SDLP 4 SF 5 Independent

2014 Results

 

SF                                  38.9%            3 seats

SDLP                              17.6%           1seat

Ind nationalist             16.5%           1 seat

DUP                               21.3%           2 seats

UUP                                 5.8%

This DEA is very difficult to predict due to the 5 independents. The demographics indicate exactly 2 unionist and 5 nationalist quotas. Nationalist turnout was 2% below unionist in 2014 but in the 2017 Assembly election would have been 2% higher. Since this a border region Brexit may increase nationalist turnout even more so than 2017. One independent, Paul Gallagher, will likely be elected again. The DUP may struggle to reach 2 quotas. The nationalist turnout was higher in the 2017 Assembly election and if that higher turnout persists then the total unionist vote would be only 24%. If the DUP are at 19% and the UUP at 5% then the total DUP vote after transfers would be only 23% as not all UUP votes will transfer to the DUP. The 2nd DUP candidate would be 2% short of a quota. The SDLP will have only 1 quota. SF will win 3 and there is a possibility of a 4th SF seat. The SF 1st preference may be 45%. There will be a 6 % surplus from independent nationalists, SDLP and Alliance. SF would need to have good balancing among their 4 candidates and receive a minimum of that 3% of that surplus.

Prediction

1 DUP 1 SDLP 4 SF 1 Independent nationalist

Change -1 DUP +1 SF

Derg- 5 seats Quota 16.7%

2019 Electorate

Catholic           55%
Protestant       44%

None/Other     1%

Candidates

2 DUP 1 UUP 1 Alliance 1 Independent 1 SDLP 3 SF

2014 Results

SF                                  42.7%            3 seats

SDLP                              10.9%

DUP                               20.9%           1 seat

UUP                                 18.7%         1 seat

TUV                                    6.9%

There is no TUV candidate in 2019. There will be no change here.

Prediction

1 DUP 1 UUP 3 SF

Overall for this council SF will gain 2 seats and the DUP lose 2. There will also be gains for Aontu and PBP.

 

The final prediction for total seats in all councils is:

Net gain/loss

SF                                                             120                        +15

SDLP                                                          70                          +4

Aontu                                                          8                          +8

People Before Profit                                5                           +4

Total Nationalist                                   203                        +31

Alliance                                                     39                        +7

 

Green                                           4                              0

Total non-sectarian                  43                            +6

DUP                                           119                          -11

UUP                                             70                          -18

TUV                                              15                          +2

PUP                                                3                           -1

UKIP                                               0                           -3

Total Unionist                           207                         -31

Independents                                9                          -6

A net gain of 31 nationalist seats and a net loss of 31 unionist seats. The non-sectarian parties gain 6 seats and the independents lose 6 seats. It appears that the 9 independents in 2019 are 4 independent nationalists and 5 independent unionists.