Craigavon turns pale

Craigavon (Portadown, Lurgan and the shopping centre bit with the roundabouts in the middle) was created in 1965 as part of a grand plan to establish  and to demonstate that the North ” was in some ways a symbol of Northern Ireland as both modern and a part of British mainstream” according to wikipedia. Of course the real reason it was built was to establish a more or less permanent unionist majority in North Armagh.

We now know that, like Belfast, unionism is in a minority here (48.4% from 52.9% in 2001) and Nationalism is getting closer. (46% fron 44.7%).

The most dramatic swings have taken place in Annagh, Church, Edenderry, Kernan Tavanagh and Parklake. The overall trend is a cumulative 8.1% in favour of catholics. As this LGD has fewer wards the full list is below.

	Catholic Change	Protestant Change
95LL01 Aghagallon	-1.5%	-0.6%
95LL02 Annagh	11.4%	-17.1%
95LL03 Ballybay	5.1%	-11.4%
95LL04 Ballyoran	-4.9%	3.2%
95LL05 Bleary	-0.3%	-2.4%
95LL06 Brownstown	6.3%	-9.0%
95LL07 Church	11.1%	-17.9%
95LL08 Corcrain	-6.5%	0.4%
95LL09 Court	2.8%	-5.2%
95LL10 Derrytrasna	-1.0%	-0.2%
95LL11 Donaghcloney	2.2%	-6.9%
95LL12 Drumgask	-2.8%	0.9%
95LL13 Drumgor	1.9%	-7.1%
95LL14 Drumnamoe	-4.4%	3.2%
95LL15 Edenderry	5.9%	-10.2%
95LL16 Kernan	5.2%	-10.4%
95LL17 Killycomain	5.8%	-9.6%
95LL18 Knocknashane	3.6%	-8.3%
95LL19 Magheralin	4.0%	-6.7%
95LL20 Mourneview	0.7%	-4.7%
95LL21 Parklake	16.5%	-21.1%
95LL22 Taghnevan	-4.9%	1.9%
95LL23 Tavanagh	8.7%	-14.3%
95LL24 The Birches	-6.3%	3.3%
95LL25 Waringstown	2.5%	-6.9%
95LL26 Woodville	-3.9%	2.6%

Belfast. Ch ch ch changes

Today the ward by ward information has been released at last from the 2011 census. The results are, in my view, startling. I have reproduced below the changes   since the last census in 2001. The highlights as I see it are the following:

Of 52 Wards, 38 have swung towards a catholic majority by an average swing of 11.3%. the rest have become more protestant by an average of 2.6%. This is a stunning turnaround in a ten year period by any measure.

The wards with the largest changes are:

CHANGE 2011                                                   Protestant %       Catholic %

95GG20 Duncairn		-26.4%	18.0%
95GG50 Woodstock		-23.4%	13.2%
95GG37 Ravenhill		-20.4%	14.1%
95GG44 The Mount		-21.4%	12.2%
95GG10 Blackstaff		-19.9%	10.8%
95GG11 Bloomfield		-17.9%	11.0%
95GG29 Island		-19.8%	8.6%
95GG32 Legoniel		-13.8%	10.6%
95GG24 Fortwilliam		-13.7%	8.4%
95GG36 Orangefield		-14.0%	7.7%
95GG43 Sydenham		-14.4%	6.1%
95GG19 Crumlin		-11.6%	7.7%
95GG03 Ballyhackamore		-12.1%	5.6%
95GG13 Castleview		-10.1%	7.0%
95GG28 Highfield		-11.4%	5.3%
95GG15 Cherryvalley		-9.8%	5.6%
95GG30 Knock		-10.8%	4.0%

This is a preliminary  look at the figures. Lots more work to do 🙂

The only wards where protestants increased over the ten year period are:

95GG25 Glen Road	1.0%
95GG47 Water Works	0.4%
95GG07 Beechmount	2.4%
95GG22 Falls Park	1.5%
95GG46 Upper Springfield	2.1%
95GG02 Ardoyne	1.9%
95GG12 Botanic	0.2%
95GG01 Andersonstown	2.6%
95GG27 Glencolin	3.9%
95GG18 Clonard	3.8%
95GG48 Whiterock	4.1%
95GG35 New Lodge	5.4%
95GG21 Falls	4.8%

Hmmm, is there a common thread there?

Boundaries? As you were

The British Government has failed in its attempt to redraw the Westminster boundaries.

I am very pleased naturally as this means attempts to ghettoise the nationalist vote have been stopped in their tracks. For example, Belfast, a nationalist majority city would have been reduced from four seats to three. Currently there are two nationalist, one unionist and one alliance MPs. The changes would have likely returned two unionist and one nationalist. Strange one that, although not for my older readers.

Of course it is much easier for me to compare like with like election wise and that, for me is great.  Nigel Dodds is, as Nordie Northsider says in the previous thread, indeed in for “squeaky bum” time.

Unrelated but I also think I have to say something about the fact that Alliance under their shared future agenda today called for a stop to funding for catholic and maintained funding for building new schools in favour of only funding integrated education.

In the 1920’s Lord “London”Derry proposed that funding be removed from catholic schools. I suggest that anyone interested in the history of that particular period  read up and look at the results of that policy. Then view the alliance proposal again. Good luck. I came to only 1 conclusion.

 

In 1912

Democracy in Action

The ward level information from the 2011 Census will be released this week. My spreadsheets and graphs are primed and ready to go. As I am sure you will be aware this involves a large volume of data which will take time to collate.

I am therefore, in true democratic style, holding a poll to help me prioritize which analysis to publish first. I’d appreciate your participation as always.

All Kinds of Everything

Why tonight did Dana singing “All Kinds of everything” bring a tear to my eye?

The answer is context.

She won it many years ago, for Ireland, at a dark time for her city. It was probably the hardest time imaginable for the people there. Can’t add much to that. If Derry does nothing else as its year as culture city that was its best moment for me and I think it changed much about its view of itself. Derry is now a self confident city. It also has a swagger and hands on hips arrogance. I’d be proud to be a Derryman even though I’m not. Good luck lads and girls but  I don’t think you’ll ever experience a better moment than that Dana win. My heart swelled even today watching it again. I was a Derryman for a day.

Maximus Gaamanicus

The Bangordub guide to Irish Wildlife

Part 2.

Typically living in more rural habitats this species is a curious creature. It is believed that in its younger years, the older ones were invariably good enough to engage in their favourite sport at “County Level”, at least it will usually claim this, although given the width of its girth this may be difficult to believe. It may be spotted perched upon bar counters across the country wearing a jacket with the crested emblem visible on the left breast. The emblem tends to vary depending upon where in the country it is spotted.

It has a communication system all of its own peppered with strange phrases. For instance, Premier league games on the TV are referred to as “Soccer”, political discussions are called “the National Question” and discussions about celebrities tend to be centered upon the best position the individual might occupy on “the team”.

Unlike “Soccer” they have no time for members of their species that like to flaunt their plumage, although every team has one. (Team or Club or County are the collective nouns). Dyed hair, fancy clothes and flashy cars are a definite no-no. However here is how to spot this particular type:

• The socks will be pulled up above the knees

• Jersey sleeves will be taped up to reveal the “guns” or lack thereof.

• He will usually be the free taker on the team, employing some gimpy run up routine, designed to emulate Johnny Wilkinson, but in actual fact ends up resembling something from SwanLake..

• Bleached blonde hair or long flowing locks. Designed to entice a tough corner back to, “grab a good hold of it”.

• Henry Ford said that the public “can have any colour car…as long as it’s black”. The modern day GAA poser has taken this timeless phrase/philosophy, flipped it on its head and adopted that approach to their football boots. It seems their ethos is that they can have any colour, as long as it’s NOT black.

• Somewhere in the stand will be the WAG, any score from the poser will be immediately followed by an over-elaborate gesture of love to said WAG.

• In extreme cases, the player will de-robe in the immediate aftermath of a score, revealing a personal message written on a t-shirt underneath his jersey. This message will often contain embarrassing spelling errors.

• You could set the clock by them suffering a career threatening injury, only to make a miraculous recovery in time to kick the resulting free.

• More Skin on show than a page 3 model due to a too small top.

• Any tattoos or body ink will be revealed throughout the course of the game, or the jersey will be discarded at the final whistle (despite Baltic conditions).

• Will usually have a piercing that will have to be made a big deal out of by plastering over it.

• Physiotherapists and doctors alike are baffled at the problems with cramp that seems to be synonymous with posers.

• Any form of cold weather will require a snood

The rest of the “team” will be embarrassed by this creature as they pride themselves, naturally, on how different they are to the aforementioned “Soccer” species. Great pleasure is taken in any fall from grace by one of these.

This species tends to be at it’s peak during the Summer months leading up to its AGPU or annual general piss up which takes place at the spiritual home of the creature. Crokius Parkidinium.

What’s happening within Unionism?

Are we witnessing a major realignment within Unionism?

I mentioned on this blog last August that when the Census results were released if, and I thought at the time it was a big if, the protestant vote fell below 50% that the effects upon political unionism would be interesting to observe. I think it may be fair to say that is exactly the scenario which is unfolding now.

In November, Peter Robinson read the jungle drums from within his own constituency (with thanks to Kalista63). His response was an ill conceived attack on the Alliance party. This has developed into the whole flag debacle. Working class unionism is now openly challenging the concept of democracy. The mainstream unionist parties spent the first few weeks in open panic without a clue what to do next. The result was the unionist forum? I think.  The UUP are now a party in open internal warfare with Basil McCrea voting against the leadership tonight on a DUP amendment in the assembly. This is largely the work of Peter Robinson who has played the hapless Mike Nesbitt like the proverbial fiddle. Basil has considerable support within unionism in my opinion and I am sure there are voices urging him to make the break. He may not have to, such is the state of that party they may sack him by the weekend. I have no doubt that he is capable  of harnessing a considerable personal vote as just about the only unionist politician to emerge with any credibility whatsoever.

The next round of elections in 2014 will be very very interesting.

The Bangordub guide to Irish Wildlife

This may be part of a series if it is thought worthwhile.

Part 1:

Orangicus Itinere Erectus.

This species is very common in the north east counties, particularly during July and August. It is easily identified by its dark plumage with lighter stripes augmented by a fantastic orange collarette about its neck and drawing to a southern point at its midriff. It generally has an exaggerated upright, almost backward leaning gait and carries its jaw at an upward thrust. It is unclear if this is part of a mating ritual. ( I will examine this in greater detail when studying Orangicus Lilicus, the female of the species) For the most part it is somewhat taciturn in nature but when roused, is given to sudden, largely incoherent, loud shouting. This shouting generally involves repeating the learned historical phrases of its flock. Ad nauseum.

The instincts of this particular species are fascinating to observe. They appear to gain particular satisfaction from parading around the nests of other species and discomfiting their habitats as much as possible, much like the Cuckoo or the Magpie. (They particularly seem to like doing this where the Exra politicus or Catholicus Chapilicos are common) They are unquestionably a herd creature although strangely they seem to choose their loudest, rather than their smartest, as the herd leaders.

Unfortunately their numbers have been dwindling in recent years largely due to a declining habitat and their unfortunate habit of alienating other species. They are however a hugely interesting and fascinating species to which, perhaps, consideration should be given to providing protected status.

At the very least they deserve a place in the Museum of Natural History in Dublin which, I believe, they richly deserve.

Riders on the Storm

During recent times it has become fashionable in certain quarters to talk about the current economic circumstances in the South in a political context. Unionist politicians and commentators in particular tend to dismiss the Southern economy using terms such as; “Basket case, Bailout, Bankrupt and Broke”. Unsurprisingly their motivation is one of sectarian politicking rather than economic reality.

Let’s look at some facts.

Firstly, the Southern economy was not “bailed out”. It was advanced loans at better than the going market rates with stringent conditions attached. This involved a degree of loss of economic independence. These loans must be repaid. Indeed Jim Alistair of the TUV was, no doubt, discomfited to learn recently in reply to a parliamentary question, that the bilateral loan from the UK to the Irish government has been substantially paid off with interest.

All the current indications are that Ireland will exit the IMF/ EU programme before the end of the year. Indeed, Government bonds have already been issued and oversubscribed on the international open markets at favourable interest rates. The current interest rate for the benchmark 10 year bond is 4.4%. Down from 15% at the height of the crisis in July 2011. The Irish Government even managed to sell €1B worth of its holdings in an Irish bank last week at a €10M profit. Who would have believed that possible until recently.

What of the wider economy?

GDP increased by an average of 0.8% year on year in 2012. (Both the UK and the rest of the Eurozone are back in recession over the same period.

The trade  surplus was €41 Billion last year for the first 11 months. (Exports minus Imports).

Consumer spending returned to positive growth in the 3^rd and 4^th quarters of 2012.

Unemployment, the biggest problem in my view, has finally started to reduce 14.9% down to 14.6% most recently. I am conscious that emigration is a major factor here but at least the figures are moving in the right direction. With increased employment comes increased consumer spending, less Govt spending and thus the entire domestic economy benefits.

Property prices, the trigger for the meltdown, are rising. 4% in Dublin, in a month.

The future prospects are what may be termed, somewhat brighter, than in recent years. The latest predictions are for 1.6% growth this year.

The big risk is another major economic shock. As an export driven economy, the exposure to international conditions is considerable. The southern export success is built upon a number of key factors. A benign tax and regulatory environment, a young, well educated and mobile workforce and well developed infrastructure and communications networks as well as easy access to the wider European market. The key industries are technology, pharmaceuticals and food related.

The south is extremely well positioned to ride out the storm and I look with optimism to the years ahead.

The north eastern six counties however….where do I start? I believe tourism is the great untapped cash cow. After the past few weeks events it is likely to remain so. Heavy industry is dead in the North. The only inward investment seems to be minimum wage businesses, retail and call centres mostly. How is it fixed? Look a few miles south! Encourage graduates to stay and develop their skills at home, specialize in something, invest in innovative new businesses, develop a mid to long term economic strategy. A corporation tax deal would help but it is only part of a package oh, and ask why the north has been completely left behind in the modern economic world. An insular, inward looking north obsessed with its own importance while existing only as an economic backwater will never develop, find its own place and pay its own way in the world. As part of a reinvigorated, re-energised Ireland it will.  The only question to my mind is when.

Thoughts on the Identity Question

Below are some comments by the author of the graph I linked to in the Fear Manach post recently. I thought you may have some opinions?

Hi, I’m the ‘author’ (so to speak!) of that graph. I find it gratifying that others are interested in what it might be showing, so I’d like to expand on how I’d interpret it – particularly in relation to the ‘Northern Irish’ category.
The commenter who posted it on Slugger O’Toole seemed sceptical of my claim that most people choosing ‘Northern Irish’ were Catholic or of a Catholic background, but to me that fact seems obvious when a) British identity and Protestant background match so perfectly, meaning that aside from a small overlap (6%) with NI identity, the latter have to come from elsewhere, and b) ‘Irish’ identity only makes up a proportion of the Catholic population, so they also have to go elsewhere.
It’s important to remember there are two sets of figures, one with unique combinations of choices (i.e. Irish AND) in class 1, and the other being what I used for the graph which measures how many choose a particular identity alone or in combination (i.e. Irish OR British OR Northern Irish) in class 2. I feel safe using the latter because only one combination reached a significant level, that of British AND Northern Irish ONLY (e.g., ‘Irish’ and ‘Irish only’ are virtually the same)
Unpacking the choice of Northern Irish identity in class 2, I can see that while ‘British and Northern Irish only’ climbs significantly in the more Protestant-dominated areas, the ‘Northern Irish only’ figure drops somewhat also – hence the overall class 2 figure seems remarkably steady, and I would say doesn’t correlate with Protestant background (aside from the subset who choose it alongside British identity), or anything else really. I do also see that ‘Northern Irish only’ also drops in areas with high Irish identity (e.g. Derry, but also significantly Belfast which bucks the trend somewhat), which fits the idea that Northern Irish v. Irish is the choice amongst Catholic communities.
To address sammymcnally’s points, ‘Northern Irish’ is not correlated with British/Protestant identity (the highest figure for it, in class 2, is 34% in Down which is 63% Catholic, followed then by North Down at 33% which is 73% Protestant) and fluctuates within such a narrow range, statistically speaking, that it’s probably not worth divining any pattern in it. The combination of British and Northern Irish does increase along with the proportion of British only, but in a way it’s to be expected that the more people who are identifying as British anyway, the more would identify as both British and Northern Irish. The remarkable thing is really that the figure overall is so flat; even the ‘Northern Irish only’ figure which seems to exclude those of British/Protestant identities, while it is on a downward trend as those increase, does so much more shallowly than the Irish or Catholic figures – and even surpasses each at their 16% and 14% levels respectively. (although as I may have said the increase in ‘no religion’ in highly Protestant areas suggests perhaps a hidden Catholic figure).

One way of putting it could be that Catholic background = Irish + Northern Irish only while Protestant background = British only + British and Northern Irish only, although this breaks down somewhat as the Catholic figures drop below 25% – of course there are some people of neither background which would have to be factored in too. But it does seem that in the graph when Irish identity rises – relative to the non-Protestant population, that is – Northern Irish (only) identity drops and vice versa, within a relatively stable band or proportion of the total population, in diverse areas. Which is a little weird and I don’t fully understand how that could work in terms of either statistics or demographics, but it seems to be the case.