By Faha
The census office has just released further data on the 2021 census.
This included Religion by broad Age bands, Country of Birth Detailed, Religion and Religion Brought Up In Detailed and also Religious Denomination Detailed.
I will analyze the Religion data in more detail to give a more accurate presentation of the entire population of Northern Ireland.
The original 2021 census release showed the following data for Religion or Religion Brought Up In.
Catholic 869,749 45.7%
Protestant 827,541 43.48%
None 177,361 9.32%
Other 28,516 1.50%
The data released in the previous week has data by broad age bands and the results were:
Age 0-14 15-39 40-64 65+
Catholic 48.69% 48.13% 45.72% 37.89%
Protestant 32.50% 37.60% 47.33% 59.21%
None 17.15% 12.27% 5.62% 2.18%
Other 1.66% 2.00% 1.33% 0.72%
There is a marked variation in those with a Protestant background by age with almost 60% in the over 65 age group but only 32.5% in those under age 15. The Catholic population varies little by age but there is a significant drop in those over age 65.
I estimate that age 60 is the cutoff where the Protestant population exceeds the Catholic population.
These numbers will have profound impacts on the future of Northern Ireland politics and any Border Poll. The age 65+, 60% Protestant population will be gone in another generation and will be replaced by another younger generation that is only 30% Protestant. When Northern Ireland was created 100 years ago it was 35% Catholic. The next generation that will be born will be less than 30% Protestant.
These numbers do not explain the whole picture on religious demographics and I will now analyze in more detail the “Religion” and “Religion Brought Up In” data.
To begin with, a Catholic is a Catholic is a Catholic. There are 870,000 with a Catholic background but not all are native Irish. There are 55,000 Catholics who were born outside of the UK and Ireland. Almost ¾ of those are from other European countries. With Brexit, their residency in the UK is more precarious. They may have settled status, but their relatives and friends are no longer permitted to emigrate to the UK. Of course, with a successful Border Poll, Northern Ireland would be automatically back into the EU, which is a desirable outcome for those EU nationals living in Northern Ireland. Both EU and Non-EU Catholics are often involved in their local Catholic parishes and schools. They are occasionally the target of loyalist paramilitaries and are aware of anti-Catholic sentiment from that community.
There is a misconception that foreign nationals are mainly Catholic. However, Catholics are only 44.5% of all foreign born (non-UK or Ireland) residents of Northern Ireland, which is slightly less than the 45.7% of the Catholic population in Northern Ireland.
Unlike Catholics, the Protestant community is more complicated. The actual census category for Religion and Religion Brought Up In is titled:
“Protestant and Other Christian and Christian Related”
I will delve into this further. The actual native Protestant population is significantly less than the 827,541 recorded in the census.
There are 28,000 Protestants who were born outside of the UK and Ireland.
A slight majority are from Europe and half of those from Europe are Eastern Orthodox (mainly Romania and Bulgaria). Many of those from Africa and Asia are from racial or ethnic groups within the various countries from which they originated.
The census does not have data on the children of immigrants who are born in Northern Ireland. However, other data shows that there have been 40,000 children born in Northern Ireland between the year 2000 and the 2021 census whose mother was born outside the UK or Ireland. There are approximately another 5,000 to 10,000 who were born prior to 2000. There are between 45,000 and 50,000 children who were born to mothers from another country.
Not all of these are still living in Northern Ireland. NINO registration data shows that only half of all foreign nationals who received NINO registrations were still living in Northern Ireland in the 2021 census (many had left due to the COVID pandemic). It is more likely that the short term immigrants are the ones that return home and do not settle and have children in Northern Ireland. I estimate that 30,000 to 35,000 children who were born to foreign mothers were still living in Northern Ireland at the time of the 2021 census. Approximately 7,000 to 8,000 would be in the Religious category of Protestant and Other Christian and Christian Related.
Altogether, the “Protestant” foreign born or their Northern Ireland born children are approximately 2% of the Northern Ireland population. Thus, this 2% should be subtracted from the 43.5% Protestant population.
The EU nationals, in particular, do not identify with unionist politics and would prefer to rejoin the EU. That is only possible via a Border Poll.
There is also new data on current Religious denomination for the 2021 census. This does not include those raised in a religion.
The Catholic population has increased. However, between 2011 and 2021 there was a decline in every Protestant denomination with over 1,000 members (except Jehovah’s Witnesses). There were increases in 2 designations in the Protestant and Other Christian and Christian related category but these are not denominations.
1,690 listed their religion as mixed Catholic/ Protestant. This group should, more accurately, be included with the Other group.
In the 2011 census there were 14,630 who designated their religion as “Christian” with no further information. It appears they were all combined in 1 category. There was a large increase for 2021 in those who designated “Christian” with several subcategories. Altogether, 43,661 designated “Christian”, an increase of 27,452 from 2011. The sub categories were
Christian-Protestant 16,209
Christian-Christian 22,632
Christian- Non Denominational 3,959
Christian-Other 1,131
The increase of 27,452 in this category is due to the increasing secularization of society. These 27, 452 would have belonged to a Christian denomination in 2011 but now designate themselves as generic Christian. The census did not ask what their denomination was previously. The census does ask those who have No Religion what Religion they were raised in. However, these Christians have not abandoned their religion. Rather, they no longer belong to a denomination but still identify as Christian.
In the UK census for the rest of the UK almost half of the population identified as Christian. Other surveys have shown that 1/3 of those identify as Christian but not with any denomination. Obviously, that percentage is much lower in Northern Ireland. What was the religious designation for those 27, 452 “Christian” in the 2021 census back in 2011? For the None Group in 2021 we know that 64,600 were raised Catholic and 116,552 were raised Protestant. 35% of the None group that no longer have a religion are of a Catholic background.
Of the 43,661 who designated Christian in 2021 there were 16,209 who designated Christian-Protestant so we can be certain that they were from a Protestant denomination previously. That leaves us with 27,452 who identify as Christian but not Protestant. As with the None group, some of these were previously members of a Protestant or Catholic denomination. If they are in the same ratio as the former religion of the None group then approximately 9,500 would be former Catholics who still identify as Christian (but not None). Taking this into account would increase the Catholic background population to 46.2%. The true Protestant group would decline by 0.5%.
There is one other minor adjustment. The Northern Ireland census includes British military and their dependents stationed in Northern Ireland. In 2011, this group was over 5,000. They do not vote in Northern Ireland. Their demographics are similar to other regions of the UK and are only 10% Catholic and almost half No Religion. Excluding them raises the Catholic population by 0.1% and decreases the None group by 0.1%
The None (not raised in any Religion) group also needs to be adjusted for various factors. This group is 9.3 % of the Northern Ireland population. Of this group, 25,556 are foreign born and are 20% of all foreign nationals. Their children born in Northern Ireland would be approximately 6,000 to 7,000. The total of approximately 32,000 is 1.7% of the entire population. After also subtracting those in the British military the native None population would be 7.5%.
In summary, the Northern Ireland population as revealed in the 2021 census is approximately the following percentages for Religion and Religion Brought Up In:
Catholic (including foreign nationals) 46.25%
Protestant (native) 41.0%
None (native) 7.5%
Other 5.25%
(includes non Catholic Christian and None foreign nationals)
The voting age population would be different since the None and Catholic groups have a younger age profile. In 2023 this would be for voting age population:
Catholic 45.5%
Protestant (native) 42.5%
None (native) 6.5%
Other 5.5%
As for the future, birth and death rates in Northern Ireland have settled into a new pattern.
Births have declined to approximately 21,000 per year and deaths have increased to 17,000 per year. Since only 30% of new births are from the native Protestant population, that is only 6,300 births per year. Between 10,500 and 11,000 of the deaths would be from the native Protestant population. That is a net decline of 4,500 per year. Add in 2,000 per year of net emigration from the Protestant population and the total yearly decline is 6,500, or 65,000 per decade.
It is not clear whether unionist political parties are aware of this demographic cliff but they will surely become fully aware in future elections.