By Faha
The Census Office released the first results of the 2021 Northern Ireland Census this week. The total population was 1,903,100 which is 92,237 more than the 2011 census.
Age and gender profiles were also released. Details on the population of District Councils and statistics on demographic variables such as ethnicity and religion will be released in October or November.
Who are these additional 92,237 in Northern Ireland? We will know by the end of this year but there are some clues from other administrative data that are available.
It appears that the majority of the increase in the population originates from foreign nationals. If one looks at the 2011 census there were approximately 75,000 foreign nationals with 44,000 from European countries (excluding the Republic of Ireland). NISRA has recorded approximately 80,000 NiNO registrations from 2011 to 2021. Not all of these immigrants would have remained in Northern Ireland. There is one more source that is recent and would be more accurate. Because of Brexit, an EU settlement scheme was implemented for EU nationals who are not UK citizens. There have been over 102,000 EU nationals who have applied for this EU settlement scheme as of September 2021. There are almost 3,000 EU UK citizens on the electoral register and accounting for those not registered and their children I estimate there are 6,000 EU nationals that are UK citizens who did not need to apply to this scheme. There are certainly also some EU non-citizens who never applied to the scheme. There also some who applied who may not be resident in Northern Ireland. Indeed, 6,000 applications were refused, withdrawn or invalid.
I estimatethe 2021 resident EU population at 102,000 which would be an increase of 58,000 compared to 2011. For non-EU foreign nationals there were approximately 17,000 NiNO registrations since 2011 and if 14,000 are still resident then the total of all new foreign nationals would be 72,000. Thus, only 20,000 of the total population increase since 2011 would be native Irish.
There is one major factor that cannot be accounted for and that is the effect of the COVID-19 pandemic that began one year before the census. The full population decline during that time due to emigration appears to be several thousand but the final numbers are not yet available. It may be that the true numbers of new foreign nationals could be less.
Between the census of 2011 and 2021 there were approximately 236,000 births and 156,000 deaths (mainly elderly) for a net increase of 80,000. Now, if 72,000 of the increase of 92,000 was from foreign nationals then only 20,000 would be from the native resident population from the year 2011. That would imply a net emigration of 60,000 since 2011.
NiNO registrations also indicate a net migration of 10,000 from the Republic of Ireland into Northern Ireland since 2011 which would imply an even higher net migration of 70,000 of the native population. I will assume that this net emigration is less at 60,000 to account for a net emigration of 10,000 foreign nationals due to the COVID-19 pandemic.
A net emigration of 60,000 would be approximately 25,000 Catholic, 25,000 Protestant and 10,000 Other/None religious background. It has been known for years that more Protestants than Catholics leave Northern Ireland to attend university elsewhere in the UK and are less likely to return so this estimate is probably accurate.
What are the implications for the religious background of the population? It is difficult to estimate those who will identify as Catholic, Protestant, Other or None for religion because of the increasing secular trend in the previous 10 years. It is possible to estimate the group Religion or Religion Brought Up In.
In the 2011 census the final numbers for Religion or Religion Brought Up In were:
Protestant 875,717
Catholic 817,385
Other 16,592
None 101,169
There was much missing data for the religion question. Almost 160,000 never completed a census form and there were another 80,000 to 90,000 who completed the census who did not provide any or complete religious data. That is 14% of the entire population. However, there was a school census in 2011 that provided the religion data for over 99% of the school population and that data indicated that the Catholic population for all of Northern Ireland was underestimated by over 20,000.
Based on yearly school census data we know that of the 236,000 births since 2011 approximately 85,000 would be Protestant and 120,000 Catholic and 31,000 Other/None. We know from the demographics of the elderly population (where most deaths occur) that of the 156,000 deaths approximately 95,000 would be Protestant and 55,000 Catholic and 6,000 Other/None.
I will now estimate the Religion of “Religion Brought Up In” numbers, I will assume a baseline 2011 Protestant population of 865,000. I subtracted 3,000 Eastern Orthodox and mixed Catholic/Protestant from the 2011 numbers and adjusted another 8,000 downward based on the school census underestimate of Catholics.
My estimate for the Protestant population is:
865,000 2011
Minus 10,000 deaths exceeding births
Minus 25,000 net emigration
830,000 for 2021
For the Catholic population I will start with the official number of 817,385 from 2011. For foreign nationals I am assuming only a slight Catholic majority. While many are from countries with large Catholic populations such as Poland, Lithuania, Slovakia, Hungary, Portugal, Spain and Italy, a significant number (probably 25%) are actually Eastern Orthodox from Romania, Bulgaria, Greece, etc. .
Plus 65,000 births exceeding deaths
Minus 25,000 net emigration
Plus 10,000 net immigration from Republic of Ireland
Plus 33,000 net foreign nationals
900,000 for 2021
With the Catholic undercount in 2011 the actual number could be as high as 920,000.
Of the remaining 152,000 people I estimate 40,000 Other (non-Christian and Eastern Orthodox) and 112,000 None (not raised in any religion).
Of course, the actual numbers who will identify their current religion as Protestant or Catholic will be lower. Indeed, the None Group (overall as well as those not raised in any religion) will be much higher. Both the Protestant and Catholic Religion or Religion Brought Up In will also be lower than my estimates for several reasons. Some of those in 2011 who were included in a religion by their parents when they were children will not identify as being raised in a religion as an adult due to tenuous memories of a religious connection in childhood and may not enter a religion brought up in. Even some adults from 2011 who listed a Religion Brought Up In may not do so in 2021 with the passage of time.
The 2021 census will be much more accurate for all demographic variables that are measured. The census office has estimated that 27,000 did not complete the census based on medical card use by individuals who show up otherwise in the NHS. A separate post census survey estimated that 31,000 did not complete census forms. The last census that was this thorough was in 1961.
When the actual data is released later this year it is the numbers on current religious affiliation that is the most important politically. The “Religion” or “Religion Brought Up In” categories may receive the most attention. However, the None group (which includes those who never had a religion and those who previously were affiliated with a religion but not anymore) is unique politically compared to Catholic or Protestant voters. Recent polls have shown that half the None group vote Alliance-Green with the other half equally divided between nationalist and unionist voters.
The None group is also very divided on a Border Poll, with recent polls showing 40% in favour of a United Ireland and another 40% Undecided. The None group will determine the future of Northern Ireland so the size of this designation in the 2021 census will be helpful in deciding the timing of a Border Poll.