The Unemployment Gap

NISRA yesterday published the 2012 Religion based Labour Force Survey.

Here it is.

 

The above graph shows the narrowing of the gap over the past 20 odd years but there are many more available in the source document linked above.

Some initial observations?

• The Geographical variations are fascinating, particularly Belfast v everywhere else
• The consistent patterns of increasing catholic population percentages on every graph
• A noticable increase in the over 60’s between 2011 and 2012 from a catholic background. (In other words post-census)

My apologies for the brevity of this post but I want to read this in detail before commenting further. There is also the raw data tables to digest. I would urge readers who may be interested to do the same.

Have fun!

It’s a Funny Thing

I’m not sure if it is because I live in a predominantly unionist town but I always find it curiously interesting that I am described as being “Irish” as a matter of course. The subtext is that those using the description are differentiating themselves and would probably describe themselves as “British”. I am mildly offended but not seriously. The term is used deliberately as a means of differentiation. I am sure of this. Is this an unique experience?

 

Don’t mention the War!

I have always had an interest in the War of Independence in Ireland 1918-1921.

Of course this period of Irish History grew from the 1916 rebellion and developed into a full scale guerrilla war which culminated in the infamous treaty which artificially partitioned Ireland under Lloyd Georges threat of “terrible and immediate war”. There are two points of interest that have arisen this week regarding this period in our history that I believe are notable and interesting

In West Cork during that period there is a prevailing myth within unionism that something of a pogrom took place against the local protestant population. If it did, let me be clear, I would unreservedly condemn it. Today’s Bel Tel carries the following article on the subject: http://www.belfasttelegraph.co.uk/news/local-national/republic-of-ireland/killing-of-protestants-not-ethnic-cleansing-claims-irish-war-of-independence-author-29943667.htm

I’ll just quote one sentence.”Despite claims that the killings had a major impact on west Cork ‘s ethnic profile, with the local Protestant population dropping by almost 30pc between 1911 and 1926, recent research has shown that the majority of these were British military and that most native Protestants remained.”

My own family were involved in the War of Independence and I can, with confidence, state that there was no appetite for a sectarian aspect to that conflict in that area. In fact I can also state that, although there was a Catholic majority actively involved on the Republican side, they were by no means the only religion represented. The North Eastern part of the Island was a different story. Pearse spoke in this the 1916 proclamation:

“The Republic guarantees religious and civil liberty, equal rights and equal opportunities to all its citizens, and declares its resolve to pursue the happiness and prosperity of the whole nation and all of its parts, cherishing all of the children of the nation equally and oblivious of the differences carefully fostered by an alien government, which have divided a minority from the majority in the past.”

I would suggest that our resident Unionist contributors here could find little to disagree with in that quote?

The second  thing that caught my eye was the fascinating release of new archive material by the Irish Army at Cathal Brugha barracks relating to the same period. This material relates to applications for pensions by volunteers but involves hand written operational details and information previously unavailable.

It’s all here.

 

Ticking some boxes

In an earlier blog, Billy the Kid and Enda, identified four “tipping points” that will transform the political balance of power in this part of the world. They will also present tough challenges for political unionism and the wider community. The only strategy I can see so far in terms of recognising these forthcoming events is a shambles of an “outreach” policy by the DUP, if you could call it a policy, and a wider push towards a non aligned centralist political landscape. By this I mean Alliance, NI21, Integrated education,etc. (Fitzjameshorse has a word for it 😉 .)

The four tipping points, with definitions, are:

1. When Protestants lose their majority is when the Protestant/Unionist vote dips below 50%. This has happened but they still have a plurality (more than anyone else)
2. When the Protestant plurality gives way to a Catholic plurality is when Catholic/Nationalist vote is for example 46% whereas Protestant/Unionist vote is less than 46%
3. Nationalist seats in the assembly outnumber the Unionist seat number
4. Nationalist seats outnumber all other seats put together, therefore they can vote for anything they want as they will outnumber any coalition voting against them

So let’s take a look at progress in terms of these points.

As stated, point 1 has already happened. The most recent electoral results that we have are the 2011 Local Government and Assembly votes, nearly 3 years ago. They are set out in the table below along with the preceding elections in terms of vote percentages and actual seats won.

	2005	2007	2011	2011
	LGD	Assembly	LGD	Assembly
Unionist	49.6% (301)	49.1% (55)	45.3% (274)	48.1% (55)
Nationalist	40.2% (227)	41.5% (45)	40.6% (225)	42.6% (43)
Centrist / Others	10.2% (54)	9.4% (8)	9.2% (44)	9.3% (10)

Point 2 is a tricky one, “When the Protestant plurality gives way to a Catholic plurality is when Catholic/Nationalist vote is for example 46% whereas Protestant/Unionist vote is less than 46%”

We know that at age 41 and below there is a catholic majority but we also know that the older age cohorts are the ones more likely to vote and the majority of those are likely to be unionists. We also know that the demographic gap is narrowing by 9,000 annually although it is only those over 18 that can affect the political balance. The balance has been static over the past 6 years but my belief is that this will change rapidly starting this year. The reason is that we have passed the magic 40. This is the age at which political awareness tends to outgrow political apathy. It is a tipping point.

Point 3 regarding nationalist assembly seats exceeding unionist seats is harder to predict. The Unionist policy of ghettoisation continues unabated. The reasoning underlying this is simply to prevent nationalists gaining a political majority. It has been the policy of unionism since 1921. It is a regrettable fact that the effect in 2014 is actually to ghettoise unionists.

Point 4 is the holy grail of nationalism. It happened before in 1921, we had another go with the GFA. Still some cannot accept it and the talk of repartition by unionists reveals that their reaction would be the same as it was then. My own view is that had the democratic will of ALL the people of this island been respected at that time it may have saved a lot of heartache.

The Week that was in it…

‘No, no sir its not dead – the Norwegian Blue prefers kipping on its back.’

So insisted the pet shop owner (Michael Palin) as he tried unsuccessfully to convince the disgruntled customer (John Cleese) that the parrot ‘what he had purchased a half an hour earlier’ – was indeed alive and well.

..and this week Richard and Meghan tried to convince anyone who was interested – that their talks process was not an ex-process and had not gone to meet its maker.

The parrot sketch (by a former British PM)

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DQ6TgaPJcR0

Ricky tries to breathe some life into the deceased

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-northern-ireland-25674003

It was a week dominated by the usual embarrassment for Unionism as their leaders said ‘NO’ yet again – and the usual attempts by some to cover Unionist blushes and spread the blame.

http://sluggerotoole.com/2014/01/10/its-the-job-of-mcguinness-and-mcdonnell-to-reach-agreement-with-unionists/

http://sluggerotoole.com/2014/01/08/after-haass-the-apolitical-ministerial-toboggan-ride-continues/

So, with the tiresome Haass out of the way, Green Field Number 4 politicians could get back to doing what they like doing most – arguing about the past – with the current leader of the DUP disputing with the previous leader, as to who was to blame for the Dublin and Monaghan bombings. Robinson disputing what the Reverend Ian was reported as saying in the forthcoming 2 part BBC documentary on his goodself.

..with Peter quickly spotting that if the Irish government were being blamed by Paisley for the bombings then that might sound too close to Republican logic regarding the legitimacy of their armed struggle.

Surely quote of the week, from the forthcoming programme by the big man on the subject of the bombings?

“I had nothing to do with it”.

Funnily enough, many people, up until this point, probably had not linked our most famous man of the cloth to these UVF (plus allegedly MI5) attacks.

http://www.belfasttelegraph.co.uk/news/local-national/northern-ireland/paisley-going-down-dangerous-road-29903807.html

So this week, with Unionist frustration with Haass still simmering away, up pops the old hardy perennial of Fenian fecundity in the Detail ( as highlighted on this site by BangorDub) to further increase Unionist and Loyalist alienation.

http://www.thedetail.tv/columns/steven-mccaffery/northern-ireland-politics-is-changing-but-mums-the-word

What will also increase Loyalist alienation is the disclosure by the Newsletter that the “PSNI has taken 16 months to close a Freedom of Information request, in the end refusing to update its figures on the ratio of loyalists to republicans arrested as part of Historical Enquiries Team (HET) investigations.” The last figures released in 2010 showed that “71 arrests to date; all but one are loyalists”.

Perhaps Loyalists are not actually paranoid after all – and everybody is out to get them?

http://www.newsletter.co.uk/news/regional/police-apologise-for-16-month-delay-on-het-request-1-5799497

And finally, another word from another dead parrot.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MxrWuE5qC5c

Sammy

It’s all about the Numbers!

Back in the “olden days” when my children were very young, I perfected the art of diverting  their attention on occasion. This usually occurred when an uncomfortable topic came up for discussion or money was required for whatever particular item couldn’t be lived without. In current parlance it’s called “spotting a Squirrel” as in “Oh look, there’s a Squirrel over there!”

Machiavelli wrote on the subject as well. “No enterprise is more likely to succeed than one concealed from the enemy until it is ripe for execution.” The Prince.

As did Shakespeare: “Be it thy course to busy giddy minds
With foreign quarrels.”
William Shakespeare: Henry IV Part II, Sc. IV

I have deliberately avoided commenting on the Jamie Bryson antics as I don’t want to discourage him but given that, apparently, The DUP have been briefing the Loyalist lunatic fringe recently, this came to mind, Machiavelli again: “There are three kinds of intelligence: one kind understands things for itself, the other appreciates what others can understand, the third understands neither for itself nor through others. This first kind is excellent, the second good, and the third kind useless.”

There has been a noticable shift in recent days, out in the Bloggersphere, away from the Haass debacle and towards the realisation that it is a numbers game here in the “Wee North” after all.

Over at The Detail, Steven McCaffery has the following to say:

“Arguably the more far-reaching story was the Northern Ireland census results

Political Unionism reacts to the 2011 Census

released in December 2012, the same month that the row erupted over restricting the flying of the Union flag at Belfast City Hall. The census marked an historic shift, unprecedented in Northern Ireland’s history – but it has barely registered in the public mind.” He goes onto explore arguments around Joint Sovereignty and concludes with the following: “But the original Christmas story reminds us how birth-rates can have a bigger impact on events than politicians.” Quite.

Naturally Slugger got in on the act with Brian Walker coming up with the startling fact that “A new numbers game is almost  upon us. How will it play out will become  an increasingly bigger part of our obsessive wee agenda” Really Brian? That’s news to regular readers of this wee blog, ahem.

My favourite grump, FJH had something to say on the matter as well. He mentions Letsgetalongarists only six times but his point is, as usual, sharp.

Am Gobsmacht came up with a typically hilarious take on unionist negotiating prowess over at LAD. His points are very well made as usual, in summary he gives us an historical tour of unionist strategies and what resulted since 1690.

So, what have we got?

In essence, it’s still all about the numbers and this is being recognised by a wider number of commentators. A recurring theme of this blog is the fact that whatever the demographics it’s only the votes that actually count. There is a clear correllation between the demographic percentages and those voting for nationalist parties. In 2011, all ages below 38 were majority catholic. That age is now 41 as noted here by Enda. We have upcoming elections this year which will be interesting to say the least.

Political unionism is in it’s usual state of confusion and has learned nothing from previous negotiations. It is still obsessed with flegs and fleggers. Most nationalists couldn’t give a “Monkeys” about their fleg and are looking on with amusement. Most nationalists also know a Squirrel when they see one.

Sammys Latest!

It has been a week of political recriminations – but somehow Richard and Meghan have returned to the US with hardly a word of criticism from the media.

Off they went, having left behind a Report which not only offers little but is being used by the parties who helped draw it up to beat each other over the head.

… and no sooner had the unhappy couple left the country but a row had broken out over who should publish their Report!

To be fair, in his article in the Irish Times, Eamonn McCann, does at least highlight the unpromising background of herself (Meghan) in her role in Iraq.

http://www.irishtimes.com/news/politics/northern-ireland-taking-failure-of-haass-talks-with-great-equanimity-1.1641517

As far as we can tell (if we rely on the trusty old BBC) Unionists had more difficulty with the report than Nationalists and SF will presumably not pass up the opportunity to highlight both their ‘reasonableness’ and Unionist ‘intransigence’.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-northern-ireland-25556714

In attempt to head off SF gaining any traction with such suggestions the DUP have attempted to put a positive spin on events. That will be tricky Peter.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-northern-ireland-25568846

SF’s apparent acceptance of the Report provides a welcome opportunity for ‘dissident’ republicans and the boul Mick over on Slugger to highlight further‘evidence’ of SF’s betrayal of the Republican cause. (Interestingly , both using Eamonn McCann as their source material).

http://thepensivequill.am/2014/01/radio-free-eireann-on-haass.html#more.

http://sluggerotoole.com/2014/01/03/why-the-neo-redmondists-of-sinn-fein-are-happier-to-make-haass-concessions-than-the-dup/

In a piece of early electioneering the clearly desperate UUP have decided that in the confusion following the publication of the report there is an opportunity to blame the Alliance Party for the debacle. Yes, they expect us to believe that the party who have consistently taken the middle ground on these controversial issues under discussion – wrecked the chances of agreement. No thanks, not buying that.

http://www.belfasttelegraph.co.uk/news/local-national/northern-ireland/richard-haass-talks-blame-game-gets-under-way-in-earnest-29884926.html

It may be too early to fully evaluate the Haass contribution but on the basis of what we have just observed it has been a very poor attempt to allow both the British and Irish governments to pass the buck and/or kick it down the road.

…what a shambolic week of politics.

Haass. Learning from History

The whole debacle regarding the Haass discussions encapsulates what passes for political debate in this part of the world and why it is disfunctional in terms of a broader political worldl .

The very fact that two respected diplomats had to be imported with the aim of achieving agreement between supposedly mature politicians speaks volumes. The fact that it was a failed initiative is an indictment of what passes for democracy in six counties of a remote island on the edge of Europe with a colonial recent past and an acute sense of history.

The discussions centred on three areas. 1.Symbols, including flags, 2. Parades and commemorations, and 3.the legacy of the past.

If I may here’s my take on it all (in brackets) in no particular order:

Parades:

• With rights come responsibilities. (Agreed)
• It is the duty of elected politicians to uphold the rule of law in this regard. (Agreed- are you listening Nelson and Nigel?)
• Let’s devolve responsibility for this locally. (Hmmm, is Stormont ready for this? although it does repatriate some powers)
• There follows a lot of guidelines about how to adjudicate on contentious parades. (Good luck with that one)

Flags and emblems.

• Flags and emblems are important to people but we couldn’t agree on anything. (Surprise surprise)
• Lets establish a commission and talk it out in a couple of months ( Sweet holy mother…….

The Past.

The first mistake here was not actually defining the past due to the fact the definition ranges, as most readers will know, from anything in the past 800 to the past 40 years.  The second mistake was the inability to define a “victim”. 3000 “conflict related” victims are referred to. I would perhaps argue the figure is much higher and spread over a greater timeframe and geography.

The final part discusses cost. I will not dignify it with any response on my part.

There is no mention of the Irish language or equality of nationality or expression of that nationality. I cannot see a single thing here of benefit to the nationalist people of the North. Perhaps I am wrong?

1

Statistics 2013

For those of you who, like me, are interested in number crunching, I have received the blog stats for 2013.

Despite a very quiet end to the year due to a debilitating optic nerve problem which left me unable to see out of my “good” eye, the overall figures are very satisfying and are evidence that our readership is extensive, global and growing. It is interesting to think that this corner of the world is perhaps, not as insular as we sometimes think it is.

The headlines for 2013 are:

• 160,000+ views (Top day was Jan 30th with 1,368 views)
• 100 Blog posts
• Top post was “Westminster is looking interesting” with 179 comments.
• We were viewed in 88 Countries with the top 3 being UK, Ireland and the US of A.
• Our top 3 “Commenters” were Fear Fearsteach, Carrickally and the boul’ Sammy  McNally.

I’m not forgetting all the occasional commenters, lurkers, fellow bloggers and visitors who all contribute in their own way and provide me with the motivation to “keep her lit”. The eye problem is well on the mend happily so I anticipate a more active 2014. I’m currently wading through the Haass proposals and am thankful I can actually read the damn thing!

Thank You to all.

( Link to the full Haass document is here by the way)