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Monthly Archives: May 2013

Back to the Numbers Game

31 Friday May 2013

Posted by bangordub in Demographics

≈ 30 Comments


I’m going to start rolling out some figures over the next few weeks. To start with I am looking here at the Top and Bottom 3 most Catholic areas and doing a direct comparison with the age profiles of those LGD’s. I have also included Belfast and the whole of NI figures for comparison.

The correllations are startling. The age profiles in the least catholic areas are much older than the average while the reverse is also true. The three most catholic constituencies are also the youngest.

Age and BackgroundBelow are the actual numbers in percentage terms that I have used for the graph above:

Top 3 Catholic Pop 0-17 18- 44 45 – 100
Newry and Mourne 79.37 26.71 37.80 35.49
Derry 74.83 25.69 38.33 35.98
Omagh 70.34 25.97 36.70 38.09
Bottom 3 Catholic Pop
North Down 13.53 20.83 33.67 45.50
Ards 12.68 22.12 33.37 44.52
Carrickfergus 9.56 22.61 34.60 42.82
Belfast 48.58 21.19 41.78 37.03
Northern Ireland 45.14 23.79 37.23 38.98

It may be argued that the 0-17 age group are tomorrows voters, the 45+ cohort are the most active voters currently and the 18 to 44 group is the one having the most babies! As may be seen above, and I know it is a snapshot, it is the majority Catholic areas which are clearly growing in population and have a much younger age profile. That trend is likely to accellerate in the years ahead as there is a clear bias in the child bearing category.

The only question in my mind is the effects of emigration, immigration and political indifference in the years ahead

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Victims

31 Friday May 2013

Posted by bangordub in Northern Politics

≈ 36 Comments


Being Irish I have a pretty good idea of the notion of victimhood.

We are all victims at some point in our lives. All of us. Whether it is at the hands of a tyrannical teacher, a parent or guardian, a tyrannical employer or a power drunken overpromoted boss. It could be an ex spouse or it could be a wronged lover. Or it could be a government. My contention is that it happens to us all and the only thing that allows it go unchallenged is the isolation of the victim.

That is why trade unionism is a good idea, admittedly the only branch of Unionism I agree with.

What I am saying here is that victimhood is a matter of context and degree and interpretation.

It is a commonly accepted principle that bad law is formed when it is drafted on the basis of individual cases. That is what has happened regarding the SPAD legislation. Regardless of the merits or otherwise of the bill, the reasons for the SDLP supporting it are deeply flawed. Two former (currently unelected) heavyweight members swung the internal argument, that is fine on an internal level but it is no way to make law.

When will politicians in this part of the world start to take a wider view?

We had the embarrassing sight of IPJ on question time last week called out for what he clearly was. A bigot. It took an English Moslem to do that.

Basil  the Mac tweeted me tonight that his party is launching next week, thursday at 7pm. I’m not likely to support it as it is unlikely to support my own views but I think he may do serious damage to the remnants of the UUP and threaten the DUP in certain parts.

We live in interesting times

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A Border Poll

23 Thursday May 2013

Posted by bangordub in Northern Politics

≈ 91 Comments


Hi all,

I’ve been quiet on the blogging front for a while. Forgive me. I have spreadsheet overload and some family “issues” to sort.

I have noticed that a new “Welcome to Northern Ireland” sign  has gone up on theWelcome to the six counties M1/ A1 at Newry in the past week. Given my own family connections to the area I’m curious as to how long it will last. The whole idea of these signs is, of course, a matter of unionist ministers trying to re-establish the idea of a “border”. A border that has become all but invisible in recent years, at least in physical terms.

Anyhow, the sign is large and substantial and has a camera positioned right beside it. Knowing the area quite well I am sure the challenge, and challenge it will be perceived as, will be accepted. Over to you:

(UPDATE 13 JUNE 2013: The sign has been seriously defaced. The 1 Month,ers have it!)

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Thoughts from McHughs in Sligo town

19 Sunday May 2013

Posted by bangordub in Demographics, Northern Politics

≈ 25 Comments


A few highlights crossing my mind as I watch the European Rugby final. (I’m against promoting the sponsors unless they want to pay me for the privelige)Pint

Firstly:

Pint. A fabulous creamy, properly poured, delicious pint is €3.40. That’s better than Bangor. Best Chowder I’ve had in a long time with gorgeous soda bread, proper butter and fantastic service. Pure heaven.

Secondly:

Some points about the Census.

Immigration is a major factor for the first time in the North. 11% of the population now was born outside the six counties including me. A lot of these “immigrants” (I know, I use the word tongue firmly in cheek) are having babies, mostly in Dungannon and the odd place called “Craigavon” as well as Belfast. On identity, a lot of people seem to have recorded themselves as having multiple boxes to tick. 10% of people, that’s 180,000, ticked more than 1 box. There is a definite reluctance on the part of, mostly younger, people, to define themselves along the traditional lines.  Things are changing rapidly and there is no longer any single demographic group in any kind of a majority.

As I sip my pint and savour the crabmeat, leeks, salmon, cod and prawns in the beautiful creamy garlicky sauce I am thinking that the electoral mix is being stirred north of the border.

Perhaps new thinking is required in the political kitchen?

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New Numbers

17 Friday May 2013

Posted by bangordub in Demographics

≈ 6 Comments


Hi all,

My head is spinning with the sheer volume of figures released this week. I have spent the best part of 30 hours crunching numbers and generating graphs. My apologies for not coming up with a faster analysis but like most of us I have to try to balance things with family and work.

I am fascinated with some of the figures. Here’s one of my tables to get your teeth into:

Catholic Protestant Other None
Employed (All) 330,428 382,862 7,233 36,086
Students (Working) 23,884 20,284 490 3,304
Students (Not working) 17,710 11,598 517 3,371
Unemployed 34,725 25,343 735 4,393
Sick/ Disabled 49,959 41,561 783 3,177
Home/ Family based 29,759 25,078 772 2,789
Retired 61,255 104,713 1,184 2,864

The Retired figures naturally reflect the older age profile of unionist inclined voters but the other figures are revealing about how nationalists are over represented among the unemployed, the sick and the indigent students. I’ll not start on the students. Please bear with me over the next few days as I will be in Sligo with Mrs Bangordub for her birthday.

There is a huge amount of data to go through including analysing the effects of immigration, emigration, religious disaffection and political indifference. Not to mention preferred outcomes to the “constitutional question” and national identity.

I can’t do it all in a few days and there is enough to keep us going for months here so patience is appreciated.

Regarding the national question I am aware that some here will comment on the northern Ireland designation of some from a nationalist background. I’ll leave this post with the words of someone who experienced a similar thing in times past.

I have met them at close of day
Coming with vivid faces
From counter or desk among grey
Eighteenth-century houses.
I have passed with a nod of the head
Or polite meaningless words,
Or have lingered awhile and said
Polite meaningless words,
And thought before I had done
Of a mocking tale or a gibe
To please a companion
Around the fire at the club,
Being certain that they and I
But lived where motley is worn:
All changed, changed utterly:
A terrible beauty is born.

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Part of the Union ………

14 Tuesday May 2013

Posted by bangordub in Northern Politics

≈ 41 Comments


The Union

 

Enough said?

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Just a Baby

10 Friday May 2013

Posted by bangordub in General

≈ 19 Comments


This blog is just a baby in the wider world of bloggery.

It’s nearly one year old.

I’d just like to thank all those who read and comment. I have always said that it isThank You! those of you who pop in here that make things worth continuing with and I have tried to make my little space of the web available to all who wish to get involved. The readership is available on the sidebar to the right for those among you interested in statistics. We’re over the 100K mark and that is very satisfying.

I had 478 views in my first month, June of last year. That’s grown a bit since. I know I am not the greatest statistician in the World although I have qualifications in the subject. I am also not entirely brilliant at polemical rhetoric although I hold strong opinions. I am proud of the fact that we have generated some great debates and have some seriously interesting, as well as opinionated, contributors.

I have made friends in interesting quarters from this blog and I have learned a few things too. As a Dubliner, albeit with an Armagh Dad, I have gained a perspective and in many ways learned why he told me some things when I was a pup.

Thank You

(Ps: Does anyone like my new picture at the top?)

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New Council Boundaries, at first glance

03 Friday May 2013

Posted by bangordub in Northern Politics

≈ 53 Comments


Good Morning all,

The new proposed (again) council boundaries are out:

Proposed Council boundariesSo it looks like 5 Nationalist (including Belfast), 6 Unionist at first viewing. But is it?

Armagh, Banbridge and Craigavon is by no means a certainty as a unionist council. Antrim and Newtownabbey is another that will require a further detailed look.

Perhaps the ever excellent LAD facebook page has it right, except for Belfast, with their Loyalist ‘wishmap’. 🙂

LAD Council Areas

Overall it looks like a political mishmash designed to extract a predetermined outcome. It also illustrates the convoluted hoops that are now necessary in order to maintain a fig leaf of majoritarianism for political unionism. For a political entity that was founded and maintained upon the principle of map boundaries being, eh, manipulated for a political objective the absurdity of the new areas is entirely logical. On any other basis it’s nuts.

I’ll look at this in more detail over the coming days but your thoughts, as always, are welcome?

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What does a Collarette mean in 2013?

01 Wednesday May 2013

Posted by bangordub in History, Northern Politics

≈ 78 Comments


A Guest Post by Carrickally.

[In response to a suggestion in a previous post, Carrickally has kindly penned this very personal blog. I am conscious that it reveals a view of the Orange Order that may be somewhat at odds with my, and others, perceptions of the organisation so lets try to keep the comments up to their usual high standards. I hope it stimulates some thinking on all sides. nb: The pictures are my choices – BD]

I have written this in a personal capacity and from my own viewpoint.  It is not an academic article and as such does not refer to research papers or articles.

What use is a collarette today?  Orangeism in 2013.

First off, a little bit of personal background.  I’ve been walking the 14 miles from Ballymacarrett to the Field and back again every Twelfth since I was seven.  I carried the banner strings for the lodge my father, two brothers, uncle, grandfather and great uncle were members of.  I received the bright Orange and Blue as a fifteen year old, a year younger than usual.  I was Worshipful Master of the lodge by the time I was twenty-four, and have been Chaplain for approaching ten years now.

Family and tradition are therefore an important part of who I am, perhaps on a more subconscious level than I’d care to admit.  My hobbies bear little difference to the world of my grandfathers – band, lodge, football but my work is much different, no yard or printers for me.  Instead, thanks to the Education Act, my father was able to set up a little middle-class unit but one still grounded in the place whence we came.  Family and tradition have a lot to do with that; my activities in leisure are quintessentially working-class and I fit rather uncomfortably into the social environment in my places of work.Orange Order 1

My lodge is a mix of social types; middle-class, retired, working-class, unemployed, Glenmen and Bluemen.  Our bond is our Reformed faith.  Or is it?  We meet every month as friends, discussing matters that need to be discussed, such as how we raise money to pay for a band, feed them and ourselves, pay for a taxi to carry equipment, refreshments and the occasional member who can no longer make the total distance on foot.  We grumble at the levels above us taking money and try to set dues that are manageable to a small lodge of only 18 members – some of our neighbours are approaching 100 – and how to keep these at zero for the out of work and those in full-time education.  Our minute books stretch back to the reign of Queen Victoria and little has changed in our items of business.

Apart from the admin, our focus is undoubtedly cultural.  We want to be able to put on a show on the Twelfth, and to a lesser degree our District parade, the Somme Anniversary parade in East Belfast on 1st July.  This year past we were able to welcome Orangemen and bands from across Ireland to East Belfast for the Covenant Parade.  We are doing this for friends and family but also to show the wider community that we are vibrant.  We do this by ensuring our banner flies proudly, our band is of good quality and well turned out, and how we look.  Many wear lodge shirts, my Presbyterian thran-ness doesn’t agree!

Orange Order2 in general, we are happy to let Schomberg House (short-hand for the full time officers) set the current agenda, which is outreach and charity work.  However, we constantly make the point that there must also be a community involvement, especially in an area of high deprivation and low academic achievement like East Belfast.  We are now moving to a position where our Hall is used for learning activities.  This replicates what a lot of rural lodges already do, setting up literacy and numeracy classes in provincial towns.  We are doing nothing radical, just following a pattern that has existed outside Belfast for twenty years and has been active in republican areas for much longer.  Recently, light has been shone into the dark recesses of loyalism and one of the highlighted areas is a lack of education.  A group such as the Orange Order, which contains schoolteachers and tutors, should be helping adults re-connect with learning and should be showing an example to children.

In 2013, The Orange places more emphasis on the work it does away from the Twelfth.  Booklets for schools on history, for youth organisations and church groups are one aspect, as well as educating our own members about our history.  Many years ago, it was supposed to be derogatory when people said King Billy was gay.  Nowadays, that should be a golden opportunity to highlight a possibly gay icon, as most Dutch men seem to be.  However, these are not newsworthy events and receive the scantest of coverage in the local weekly papers.

One thing that we can’t shy away from is parades, and it is why I mention it last.  The Twelfth is the highpoint of our calendar.  It’s our public face and to us it’s a celebration.  In Belfast, we have made great strides with BCC and the PSNI to ensure that there are family friendly zones.  Now we need to take the next step and make these zones a comfortable place for Catholics to come to.  That’s more an issue for the crowd than the marchers but we have to set the example.  That includes bands and I believe that playing religious tunes passing places of worship in a respectful manner is much better than a militaristic single drumbeat (we do that at the Cenotaph) or a rendition of the Sash.

Familial; cultural; religious.  That describes the Orange Order to me in 2013. There are myriad other perceptions from within the Institution never mind the opinion of virtually every other citizen, either good or bad.  We are an organisation that most have something to say about so it is very clear that we are not irrelevant, despite the protestations over the last few years.  We haven’t gone away, we don’t wish to but instead we can reach in and reach out to make Northern Ireland a better place than it has been, something that we must shoulder the responsibility for as well.

 

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