• About

"We in coming days may be"

~ How the future may unfold

"We in coming days may be"

Monthly Archives: March 2018

Managing Decline – the Lucid Talk poll- Feb 2018

05 Monday Mar 2018

Posted by bangordub in Uncategorized

≈ 86 Comments


Lucid Talk today released the first findings of their February 2018 tracking poll.

I thought it worth doing a quick blog on these findings as they reveal some very interesting facts.

Below are two of the charts published by Lucid Talk, the first is an age grouping breakdown:

Lucid Talk poll Feb 2018

The second graphic shows us the overall effect of the above and a comparison with results in September 2017:

Lucid Talk Poll Feb 18-2This is fascinating stuff, In the first graphic we can see that SF have a lead of 9.5% over the DUP in the under 44 category and Nationalist parties (SF & SDLP) have a full 10% lead over the main unionist parties (UUP and DUP).

In the older age cohort the figures are a lead of 10.2% for DUP over SF and 13.7 for Unionism (35.3% vs 49%)

This is massive electoral change coming down the line for political unionism and it’s a one way direction of travel.

Turning our attention to the second graphic which combines the results to give us a prediction as to voting intentions and the changes over a six month period the figures are equally startling.

There is a swing from DUP to SF of 3.1%, in the context of politics here, that is significant.  I am sure the drop in support for the DUP will be much speculated upon over the coming days.

Using the above figures, the total Unionist vote (DUP/UUP/TUV and PUP) translates into 46.6%, well short of a majority. The total Nationalist vote (SF/ SDLP/ PBP) is 42.7%.

A swing to nationalist parties of 0.6% since September.

How this would translate into actual seats of course depends on the geographic spread of the votes and how motivated voters are in an actual election.

This poll demonstrates the continuing trends established in last years elections and the potential growth of the nationalist parties in the years ahead. For political unionism, while they continue to beat their tribal drums and resort to the dog whistling of the past, they are faced only with decline.

As events of the past two weeks demonstrate, Unionism keeps repeating the mistakes of it’s past. Walking out of the talks process was a colossal strategic error, lying about the circumstances in which that happened compounded that error and failure to have any idea about what to do next exposes their lack of vision and planning for the future.

The failure to be honest with their electorate is why their base was so woefully unprepared for the deal on restoration of Stormont. The above poll demonstrates that they are now managing the decline of unionism. Denial will only increase the shock to unionist voters as this process rolls out in the years ahead.

Like their allies in the Brexiteer brigade, they may have acted in haste but will have plenty of time to repent at leisure.

This is only going one way.

 

Share this:

  • Twitter
  • Facebook
  • Tumblr
  • Pinterest

Like this:

Like Loading...

Readers Thoughts

Antain Mac Lochlainn… on Recent Polls, Results, Demogra…
Feckitt on Recent Polls, Results, Demogra…
PaulG on Recent Polls, Results, Demogra…
PaulG on The Border Poll
PaulG on Recent Polls, Results, Demogra…
Gaygael on Recent Polls, Results, Demogra…

Recent Posts

  • Recent Polls, Results, Demographics and 2022 election implications
  • Endgame approaches
  • The Border Poll
  • What if? – Assembly Election 2020
  • Final Westminster Polling

Archives

  • October 2020
  • August 2020
  • March 2020
  • December 2019
  • November 2019
  • September 2019
  • May 2019
  • April 2019
  • March 2019
  • February 2019
  • December 2018
  • November 2018
  • October 2018
  • September 2018
  • August 2018
  • June 2018
  • May 2018
  • March 2018
  • February 2018
  • January 2018
  • December 2017
  • November 2017
  • July 2017
  • May 2017
  • April 2017
  • March 2017
  • February 2017
  • January 2017
  • December 2016
  • October 2016
  • September 2016
  • July 2016
  • June 2016
  • May 2016
  • April 2016
  • March 2016
  • February 2016
  • January 2016
  • November 2015
  • October 2015
  • September 2015
  • August 2015
  • July 2015
  • June 2015
  • May 2015
  • April 2015
  • March 2015
  • February 2015
  • December 2014
  • November 2014
  • October 2014
  • September 2014
  • August 2014
  • July 2014
  • June 2014
  • May 2014
  • April 2014
  • March 2014
  • February 2014
  • January 2014
  • December 2013
  • November 2013
  • October 2013
  • September 2013
  • August 2013
  • July 2013
  • June 2013
  • May 2013
  • April 2013
  • March 2013
  • February 2013
  • January 2013
  • December 2012
  • November 2012
  • October 2012
  • September 2012
  • August 2012
  • July 2012
  • June 2012
  • May 2012

Categories

  • Demographics
  • General
  • History
  • Norther Politics
  • Northern Politics
  • Southern Politics
  • Uncategorized
  • Wildlife

Blogroll

  • Amgobsmacked !
  • An Sionnach Fionn
  • Barton Creeth
  • Benmadigan
  • Endgame in Ulster
  • Footballcliches
  • Hoboroads Politcal Highway
  • Jude Collins
  • Keeping an eye on the Czar of Russia
  • Slugger O'Toole
  • Ulsters Doomed

Archives

Blog Stats

  • 667,400 hits
March 2018
M T W T F S S
 1234
567891011
12131415161718
19202122232425
262728293031  
« Feb   May »

Bangordub on Twitter

My Tweets

Blog at WordPress.com.

Cancel
Privacy & Cookies: This site uses cookies. By continuing to use this website, you agree to their use.
To find out more, including how to control cookies, see here: Cookie Policy
%d bloggers like this: