I’ve promised some numbers for the May elections to those who’ve stuck with this blog down the line and those who are used to me know that my consistent message has been the correllation between the demographics and the votes is startlingly close. The Westminster elections are a raw election. First past the post, no transfers, no messing. I disagree with the method but we work with what we have.
I’m looking at four constituencies. Newry- Armagh, FST, NB, and SB. I’m not looking at East Belfast as that is a entirely one off situation and largely an inter unionist issue. I will come back to it.
Ok. Here we go! I’m going to provide the raw proportional percentages over the last 2 Westminster elections, compare them with the 2011 census and see what you come up with.
Now lets take a look at the 2011 census community background figures and “go compare”:
It is obvious from the above figures that the census figures match the voting figures very closely. There are a few anomolies also, such as the increased Alliance vote in South Belfast in 2010. The Anna Lo factor obviously impacted on, primarily, the UUP vote for example.
We are five years down the road now from that particular vote. We know that the older unionist demographic is fading. We also know that immigration, emigration and electoral apathy are all factors.
The only certainty is that there is a slow train coming down the line for political unionism and sooner or later the chickens will be roosting.
May will give us all an indication of the next stop.