A slow train coming down the line

I’ve promised some numbers for the May elections to those who’ve stuck with this blog down the line and those who are used to me know that my consistent message has been the correllation between the demographics and the votes is startlingly close. The Westminster elections are a raw election. First past the post, no transfers, no messing. I disagree with the method but we work with what we have.

I’m looking at four constituencies. Newry- Armagh, FST, NB, and SB. I’m not looking at East Belfast as that is a entirely one off situation and largely an inter unionist issue. I will come back to it.

Ok. Here we go! I’m going to provide the raw proportional percentages over the last 2 Westminster elections, compare them with the 2011 census and see what you come up with.

 

 

 

 

 

 

Now lets take a look at the 2011 census community background figures and “go compare”:

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

It is obvious from the above figures that the census figures match the voting figures very closely. There are a few anomolies also, such as the increased Alliance vote in South Belfast in 2010. The Anna Lo factor obviously impacted on, primarily, the UUP vote for example.

We are five years down the road now from that particular vote. We know that the older unionist demographic is fading. We also know that immigration, emigration and electoral apathy are all factors.

The only certainty is that there is a slow train coming down the line for political unionism and sooner or later the chickens will be roosting.

May will give us all an indication of the next stop.

Unionist Unity’s last Hurrah?

Tonight,

Ahead of schedule, it seems,  I have learned that we have a deal for Unionist Unity at last for the May elections. Apparently the official announcement is due in the morning   ( Wednesday 18th)

There are four constituencies involved. Fermanagh South Tyrone (No surprise), North Belfast (Stop the press!) Newry and Armagh and, wait for it …….East Belfast! Now that is a surprise.

Possibly of more interest are the omissions. Notably South Belfast but also South Antrim and Upper Bann.

Alliance may well view the move in East Belfast as a sign of panic in DUP ranks in that parish, Id regard it as an insurance policy. There is obviously a lack of confidence within the party regarding retaining that particular seat. If I was Naomi Long, I’d be licking my lips tonight, metaphorically of course.

Fermanagh? Tightest seat in christendom as well as the dreariest steeples.

My money is on SF retaining the seat. I base that on the demographic changes (On the way in detail shortly I promise) and the effect upon the nationalist electorate of good old unionist pacts in general.

Newry and Armagh? Not a hope for a unionist candidate, an obvious carrot for the UUP.

North Belfast? Now this could be fun. SF are very, very confident of this one. Will the UUP vote transfer to the DUP en masse or, as I suspect, will the middle class unionists of Cave Hill simply not vote rather than support the odiously and obviously sectarian manipulators of the local electorate (eg:Girdwood), their DUP representatives.

My take is that is a major win for the DUP. The only possible plus for the UUP is FST if they can win it. It is worth remembering that they didn’t manage that last time around with an agreed unity candidate, let alone a single UUP person.

It is fascinating that no agreed candidate has been selected for South Belfast. Does this signify an acknowledgement that the constituency is lost to Unionism? I don’t know.

I have the feeling that this election may be the last hurrah for unionist electoral pacts. They hark back, in my mind, to the hegemony of the single candidate days of the old UUP complete with gerrymandered constituencies and limited voter registration.

No doubt there will be denials issued that the sectarian headcount ideology or philosophy is in play. Make no mistake, it very much is.

If this play of the cards doesn’t work, what next for political Unionism?