Westminster 2019 Election Poll

By Faha

LucidTalk conducted a poll of Northern Ireland voters and their Westminster voting preferences from October 30^th to November 1^st. The poll was commissioned by Electoral Calculus and Remain United.

I will discuss some of the findings in this poll.

There were 2,273 respondents and they were asked about their likelihood of voting on a zero to 10 scale with 10 being absolutely certain to vote. This question is often asked by numerous polling companies for Westminster and other elections.

The predicted turnout is always much higher than actual turnout. This may be due to the fact that those who participate in polls are more politically engaged than the average voter. However, there is one consistent finding and that is the percentage who are absolutely certain to vote usually equals the actual turnout. This does not mean that all those who are certain to vote actually vote and none of those who are less certain to vote never vote.

There are a few who state they are absolutely certain to vote who do not vote. It appears though that few of those who are less certain to vote actually vote. In this poll 88% stated they were absolutely certain to vote.

These are the differences by various subgroups:

2017 Assembly Vote

SF                    95%

SDLP               94%

Alliance          93%

UUP                88%

DUP                86%

2016 EU Referendum Vote

Remain          92%

Leave              84%

Religion

Catholic          92%

Protestant      86%

Other/None   85%

It appears that nationalist and Alliance voters are more likely to vote in this election. This would be a reversal of the historical pattern where unionist turnout is higher than nationalist or Alliance turnout.

Those who voted Remain are more likely to vote than those who voted Leave. This is probably due to misgivings some Leave voters have about the negative effects of Brexit on Northern Ireland. Some Leave voters may be disillusioned about the DUP and its strategy in Westminster.

Voters were also asked which party they will vote for in the election. This included all respondents, not just those who were 100% certain to vote.

After excluding non-voters and those voters who stated they will vote but are Undecided these are the results.

SF                     23.8%

SDLP                 13.7%

PBP                     1.2%

Alliance            16.1%

Green                  1.2%

Other                   2.8%

UUP                      8.7%

DUP                    28.1%

TUV                       1.2%

Sylvia Hermon     2.9%

The unionist parties received 47.2% in the 2017 election. This poll indicates a drop to 38%. The nationalist parties received 41% in 2017. This poll indicates a drop to 38.7%. Alliance -Green were 8.8% in 2017 but 17.3% in this poll, nearly double 2017.

There have been some new developments since this poll was conducted. Sylvia Hermon will not be standing and the TUV are not contesting any seats. The Green Party is not contesting any of the Belfast seats nor North Down and will contest only 3 seats in total.

I estimated the December 2019 electorate based on the 2011 census and added in all new voters and subtracted voters who have died since then. I also adjusted for EU nationals and others (military) who do not vote in Westminster elections. This appears to be the demographics of that electorate

Catholic                 43%

Protestant             45%

Other/None          12%

The LucidTalk poll had 22% of their respondents as None/Other. This may be due to the increasing secular nature of voters. None/Other have a 20% higher preference for Alliance- Green candidates so this influences the results. Voter preferences were given by religious background.

If the electorate is identical to the census projection and taking into account the fact that Catholic voters are more likely to certainly vote then the actual electorate that votes would be:

Catholic                45%

Protestant            43.5%

Other/None         11.5%

Based on voter preferences given in the poll I estimate this would be the election day results

SF                     24.5%

SDLP                 14.9%

PBP                     0.8%

Alliance            14.3%

Green                  1.2%

Other                   2.5%

UUP                      8.8%

DUP                    28.9%

TUV                       1.2%

Sylvia Hermon     2.9%

As with any estimate there is a significant margin of error. However, it does appear that there will be a large drop in the DUP vote and a lesser decline in the SF vote. Both the Alliance and SDLP vote will be up significantly.

There will be another LucidTalk poll conducted at the end of November. Now that all the candidates are known the results will be different.

The 5% of the vote that currently goes to Sylvia Hermon, the TUV and the Green Party will go to other candidates.

Full list of candidates by constituency is available Here (BD)

Westminster Election – Pacts & Possibilities

By Faha

An election for the Westminster Parliament will be held on December 12.

The main issue in this election will be the nature of Brexit. Currently the Conservatives are averaging a 12% lead over Labour in the first group of opinion polls released. This would result in a clear Conservative majority if this lead exists on election day.

Alarmed by the prospect of a pro Brexit Conservative majority, several of the opposition parties (Liberal Democrats, Green, and Plaid Cymru) recently announced a formal election pact involving over 60 constituencies. Only one candidate from those 3 parties will stand and the parties will encourage all their voters to vote for that one candidate. All of those candidates will be in favour of keeping the UK within the EU.

In Northern Ireland the DUP is the current coalition partner with the Conservatives and they have strongly supported a policy where all of the UK (including Northern Ireland) will leave the EU.

The DUP even prefer a Hard Brexit over the deal that Theresa May negotiated, a deal that could not be passed in Parliament. A week ago there were no signs of an electoral pact between the parties in Northern Ireland that wish to keep Northern Ireland within the EU (SF, SDLP, Alliance, Greens). The new UUP leader Steve Aiken stated that the UUP would stand in all 18 constituencies.

Then the unexpected occurred. Loyalist paramilitaries threatened the UUP if they stood in North Belfast. The UUP gave in to these threats and announced that they would not contest North Belfast. This appeared to cause outrage in the non unionist communities.

The SDLP announced that they would not contest North Belfast, East Belfast and North Down and urged their voters to vote for the strongest pro Remain candidate in those constituencies. This was followed shortly by SF announcing they would not contest South Belfast. The Green Party announced they would not contest North, South and East Belfast and publicly endorsed Claire Hanna in South Belfast. Apparently the Workers Party may not stand in North Belfast.

There are currently 10 pro Brexit DUP MPs in Westminster. Sylvia Hermon in North Down has stated she will not stand in this election and based on the 2017 election results the DUP would win the seat. The DUP could potentially return 11 MPs.

Could an electoral pact among Pro Remain parties reduce this number?

An electoral pact would be of no use in the constituencies of Strangford, Lagan Valley, East Antrim and North Antrim since the DUP MPs won these seats in 2017 with majorities of 57% to 62%. The other 7 DUP MPs could theoretically be defeated with electoral pacts.

There are not yet any formal electoral pacts among the pro Remain parties. The parties will not contest several constituencies but this does not appear to be part of any formal negotiations among the parties though the Greens did endorse Claire Hanna in South Belfast.

There are informal electoral pacts in North, South and East Belfast and I will now analyze the implications.

South Belfast

2017 Results

SF                         16.3%

SDLP                    25.9%

Alliance               18.2%

Green                    5.1%

DUP                     30.4%

UUP                       3.5%

Conservative        0.6%

The 2019 District Council election showed a 3% decline in the total unionist vote compared to 2017. The DUP vote is unlikely to be any higher than 30% and may be lower since the Remain vote was 70% here. Since the SDLP will pick up most of the SF and Green vote the SDLP vote will be well over 40%. The DUP will lose this seat and there will be one less pro Brexit MP.

North Belfast- 2017 results

SF                         41.7%     (19,159)

SDLP                      4.5%      ( 2,058)

Workers Party      0.8%       ( 360 )

Alliance                  5.4%     (2,475)

Green                      1.4%      ( 644 )

DUP                     46.2%       (21,240)

Nigel Dodds won with a 2,081 plurality over SF. Since the SDLP, Greens and Workers Party will not contest the election where will their votes go?

In view of the recent threats by Loyalist paramilitaries which forced the UUP to stand down and the fact that Nigel Dodds is strongly pro Brexit, I believe that at least 1,500 of the SDLP votes will go to SF. In the 2019 council election in the Oldpark DEA the SDLP transfers that went to SF or Alliance were 75% to SF. SDLP voters are also aware that SF declined to stand in South Belfast which will greatly benefit the SDLP.

Of the 1,000 votes for the Workers Party and Greens I expect over half to go to SF. The Alliance Party may pick up some voters from the parties not standing. However, the Alliance Party is very familiar with Loyalist threats and some Alliance voters will be tempted to vote for SF.

Voting for SF is also the only way for Alliance voters to defeat Nigel Dodds and have one less pro Brexit MP. It appears the contest would be even. However, demographic changes in the 2 ½ years since 2017 would decrease the DUP by 500 and increase the SF vote by 500 so SF should win by 1,000 votes.

Only poor nationalist turnout can save Nigel Dodds.

East Belfast

The DUP easily won in 2017 with 55% of the vote. However the 2019 council elections show that this is not a certainty in the 2019 Westminster election

SF                    3.5%

SDLP                0.5%

Alliance         32%

Greens            7%

UUP               14%

DUP               34%

Unionist          9%

The Alliance Party is the only Remain Party so they should receive 43% of the vote. Unfortunately the other 9% unionist vote is mainly TUV, PUP and UKIP so it is likely that all that 9% will go to the DUP so their vote should be 43%.

The big unknown is what will happen to the 14% UUP council vote. The September Lord Ashcroft poll showed that only 21% of Protestants would vote Remain if a new EU Referendum were held. The majority of those would be Alliance, Green and SDLP voters. However, some would be UUP voters and UUP voters are probably at least 25% Remain voters.

Will some UUP voters defect to Alliance? Who will the UUP candidate be? Will there be an increased turnout of pro Remain voters to vote for Alliance in order to defeat the DUP? East Belfast voted 51% Leave but the Lord Ashcroft poll shows that support for Remain has increased from 56 % to 60%. East Belfast would now likely vote narrowly Remain.

The 4 other constituencies where a pro Remain pact could defeat the DUP are North Down, South Antrim, Upper Bann and East Derry.

To date the Alliance Party has been unwilling to participate in a pro Remain pact. This refusal will cost them a potential seat in South Antrim.

North Down

In 2017 Sylvia Hermon narrowly defeated the DUP 41.2% to 38.1%. She will not contest this election. North Down voted 52% Remain and this would likely exceed 55% in 2019. The 2019 District council election give us an indication of what will happen in the Westminster election.

SF+SDLP               0.5%

Independents      1%

Alliance               26%

Green                  14.5%

UUP                      19.5%

DUP                       30%

Other Unionist      8.5%

Most of the other unionist vote will go to the DUP so they should receive 38% as they did in 2017.

The only possible way for the DUP to lose is if there is an electoral pact among the pro Remain parties.

SF and the SDLP are not standing and they received 2.5% in 2017. SF, SDLP and Greens have already stood down in East Belfast leaving Alliance as the only Remain candidate. Alliance could reciprocate and Steven Agnew of the Greens would be the Remain candidate.

Since the combined vote of the Remain parties in 2019 was 42% it is possible that the DUP could be defeated. Not all Alliance voters would vote Green but most would in order to defeat the DUP.

South Antrim

These were the approximate results in the 2019 District Council election

SF                 14%

SDLP            10%

Alliance       18%

UUP              21%

DUP              28%

Unionist          9%

The DUP are the clear favourite to win with the same 7% margin they had over the UUP in 2017. The DUP vote could be as high as 35% with votes from other unionists. However, if Alliance were to contest as the only Remain candidate the outcome would be very different. The combined Alliance-SF-SDLP vote is 42% which would result in the election of an Alliance MP.

Upper Bann

SF               22.5%

SDLP          14.5%

Alliance       9%

UUP            22%

DUP            29%

Unionist       3%

The combined SF-SDLP-Alliance vote is 46% which is more than enough to defeat the DUP. Since SF and the SDLP would stand down in South Antrim, Alliance would not contest here and the Remain candidate would be either SF or the SDLP (depending on who the Remain candidate is in East Derry).

East Derry

These were the approximate results in the 2019 District Council election

SF                 22.5%

SDLP            11.5%

Nationalist    3.5%

Alliance          8.5%

UUP               13%

DUP                31%

Unionist          10%

The combined Remain party vote is 46%. Depending on who the Remain candidate is in Upper Bann either SF or the SDLP would be the Remain candidate.

Clearly with formal or informal pacts among the Remain parties 7 out of 11 DUP MPs could be defeated. The informal pacts are already in existence in South Belfast, North Belfast and East Belfast. It appears that the main obstacle to further pacts is the unwillingness of the Alliance Party to cooperate with the other Remain parties.

It is possible that if these pacts were to occur in North Down, South Antrim, Upper Bann and East Derry that the UUP would decline to stand and support the DUP candidates.

This would damage the UUP in several ways. They would decisively side with the pro Brexit DUP even though a significant number of their voters wish to Remain in the EU. They would risk losing these voters to the Alliance Party. They would also essentially concede that they are only a branch of the DUP and offer no alternative views to those of the DUP.