Tags
By Faha
Although we are only in the year 2024, another Northern Ireland Census is only 7 years from now, in 2031. I will attempt to estimate the results of the 2031 census and how they will impact a future Border Poll.
Now we all know it is difficult to predict the future, but there is underlying census data from the 2021 census that will extrapolate to 2031.
The results of the 2031 census will be determined by 4 main factors between the years 2021 and 2031.
1 Births
2 Deaths
3 Net emigration
4 Net immigration.
Looking at these four areas…..
1 Births
Between 2011 and 2021 yearly births averaged 23,700. However, there was a marked decline over the decade with yearly averages over 25,000 between 2011 to 2013 and only 20,800 in 2020. Births are only averaging 21,000 per year since the 2021 census and this trend is unlikely to reverse. With the current birth rate of 21,000 per year, there will be 210,000 people added to the population of Northern Ireland between 2021 and 2031.
2 Deaths
Deaths averaged 15,500 per year between 2011 and 2021. In the previous 3 years death have averaged 17,300 per year. The higher rate beginning in 2020 was due to excess deaths from COVID-19. However, there were 17,254 deaths in 2023 when there were few COVID deaths and the 2024 rate is on track for more than 17,000. The higher death rate is mainly due to the ageing of the population. There will be 170,000 deaths between 2021 and 2031.
3 Net emigration
Net emigration of the native population of Northern Ireland is approximately 5,000 per year. The is also a net inward migration of 1,000 yearly from the Republic of Ireland. There will be a net loss of 40,000 people between 2021 and 2031 due to net emigration.
4 Net immigration
NiNo registrations show a net yearly increase of 13,000 per year (excluding Republic of Ireland). There was an exodus of some immigrants during the COVID pandemic and this makes it difficult to predict the extent of net immigration. There were 100,000 EU nationals that had registered for the EU settlement scheme by 2020 but only 70,000 EU nationals were recorded in the 2021 Census. This indicates that 30,000 left Northern Ireland between 2020 and 2021. It is not clear how many of those have returned. Historically, in the 20 years prior to the 2021 census approximately half (net) of immigrants to Northern Ireland have remained in Northern Ireland. If current immigration trends continue then there would be a net addition of 70,000 immigrants to Northern Ireland with perhaps an additional 10,000 EU nationals returning to Northern Ireland.
Overall, the main changes in demographics have changed significantly between 2011 to 2021 and 2021 to 2031. Between 2011 and 2021 there was net addition of 82,000 to the population of Northern Ireland accounting for only births and deaths. With a net emigration of 40,000 there was still a net increase in the native population of 42,000.
With the current birth and death rates there will be no net increase in the Northern Ireland native population between 2021 and 2031. 210,000 births and over 170,000 deaths and a net emigration of 40,000 equals no growth. The only increase in Northern Ireland population will come from net immigration. I estimate that the Northern Ireland population will be somewhere between 1,950,000 and 2,000,000. The higher number would occur if immigration increases.
I will now delve into the demographic changes between 2021 and 2031. From the 2021 census we already know the religious composition of the youngest age cohort (age 0 to 4) and this composition is likely to remain the same between 2021 and 2031. We also know that most deaths are in the oldest age cohorts and we also know the religious composition of the oldest age groups. Emigration is likely to be stable so the only major unknown is immigration.
I will concentrate firstly on the Protestant population. The census definition is Protestant and Other Christian and there are 2 separate categories. There are those who designate that their religion is Protestant and there is a 2nd group that includes those who were raised Protestant also. I will mainly refer to this 2nd larger group. I will also concentrate on the native Protestant population and exclude those who are foreign nationals or who are Christian but raised Catholic.
If you look at the historical census years, the Protestant population was approximately 880,000 in the 1961 census (61.5% of the total population). In the 2001 census the Protestant population was 890,000 (895,000 including British military in Northern Ireland), 53% of the total population. In the 2011 census the Protestant population was 875,000. However, in 2011 the nature of that population had changed. With the opening of immigration from the EU in 2003 and increased immigration from other countries approximately 15,000 were foreign nationals and their children. Another 5,000 were British military and other mixed religion. So, the native Protestant population was only 855,000 (47% of the total population), a decline of 35,000 from 2001.
Most of that decline was due to emigration. In 2021, the Protestant population was 827,000. If you reread my article from June 2023, you will see that in the 2021 census there were approximately 35,000 who were foreign nationals and their children (many Eastern Orthodox) and another 10,000 who were generic Christian but raised Catholic. The native Protestant population was 780,000 (41.5% of the total population), a decline of 75,000 from 2011. Approximately 35,000 of the decline was due to deaths exceeding births with another estimated 25,000 decline due to emigration. It is difficult to explain the remaining 15,000 decline. Some may be due to adults who as children in 2011 were recorded as Protestant by their parents, but as adults they recorded None (not raised in any religion) since they did not recall any affiliation with a religion as a child. It is also possible that emigration was higher than estimated.
What will the Protestant total be in 2031 ? Since we know deaths are averaging over 17,000 per year and 60% of the population in the older age cohorts are Protestant, we know that there will be over 100,000 deaths from the Protestant population. Births are averaging only 21,000 per year and the percentage of native Protestants in the youngest age cohorts (0 to 1) was only ~27%, then there would be only ~56,000 Protestant children born between 2021 and 2031. That would be a net excess of deaths over births of approximately 45,000. If historical emigration continues then the Protestant population would decline an additional 25,000. The totals are 70,000 so the native Protestant population would decline to 710,000 in 2031 from 780,000 in 2021. Since there will likely be small numbers of young adults that do not recall being raised in a Protestant religion it is likely that the actual number may be as low as 700,000. Based on the 2021 census the number of actual native Protestants would be approximately 610,000 with another 90,000 None (raised Protestant). If the Northern Ireland population in 2031 is 1,950,000 (an increase entirely due to foreign national immigration) then the Protestant population of 700,000 would be 36% of the total population. Including only those with a current Protestant religion, the percentage would be 31%. These percentages would be lower if the total population is as high as 2 million.
There will also be changes in the Catholic population, but these will not be as dramatic. The Catholic population was approximately 540,000 in the 1961 census. In the 2021 census the Catholic population (including None but raised Catholic) was 870,000. This included 65,000 None (but raised Catholic). It did not include approximately 10,000 generic Christian (but raised Catholic) and the School Census also indicated an undercount of Catholics of 5,000+. The total Catholic background population was approximately 885,000.
Based on the demographics of the elderly population, approximately 6,300 of the greater than 17,000 yearly deaths would be Catholic. Of the 21,000 yearly births approximately 10,300 would be Catholic. The excess of births over deaths would be 4,000 yearly for a 10 year increase of 40,000. However, there would be a net loss of 10,000 due to net migration (20,000 from Northern Ireland natives minus 10,000 net immigration from the Republic of Ireland). The total increase from 2021 to 2031 would be 30,000 for a total of 915,000. It is not clear how many immigrants would be Catholic but probably no more than 15,000 of 60,000 immigrants. Thus, the estimated Catholic total for 2031 would be 930,000, 47.5% of the population.
There will be a large increase in the native None (not raised in any religion) between 2021 and 2031. This is because the None group are a significant percentage of new births (20%) and very few among the yearly deaths. The native None group will be almost 200,000 or 10% of the total population.
The remaining 6.5% of the population will consist of non Catholic foreign nationals and their children who are non-Christian, non Catholic Christian or None (not raised in a religion).
Based on current birth and death rates, historical emigration, and estimates of immigration, the Northern Ireland population will be somewhere in the range of 1,950,000 to 2 million in the 2031 census.
The approximate Religion background of that population will be:
Catholic (including None and Christian raised Catholic) 47.5%
Protestant (including None raised Protestant) 36.0%
None (native not raised in any religion) 10%
Foreign national and children 6.5%
(None, Non Christian, non Catholic Christian)
How is all of this relevant to a Border Poll ?
The results of a Border Poll in 2031 will be determined by the voting preferences based on the demographics in 2031. Assuming a voting age of 16 (the same as the Scotland Independence Referendum) the voting age population will differ among the 4 groups. The None group has a very young age profile and the Protestant group has the oldest age profile. Foreign nationals will be less likely to vote. I estimate the electorate for a Border Poll in 2031 to be:
Catholic 48%
Protestant 38%
None 8%
Foreign National (non Catholic) 6%
The recent LucidTalk poll showed preferences for an Eventual United Ireland versus staying in the UK. The results by Religion were:
Catholic Protestant Other/None
Eventual United Ireland 93% 13% 51 %
Remain in UK 2 % 82% 36%
Undecided 4% 5% 13%
For the 48% of the electorate that will be Catholic the results are:
44.5% for United Ireland
1% Remain in UK
For the 38% of the electorate that will be Protestant the results are:
5% for a United Ireland
31% Remain in UK
For the 8% of the electorate that will be None the results are:
4% for a United Ireland
3% Remain in the UK
For the 6% of the electorate that will be Foreign nationals (non Catholic) the estimated results are:
5% for a United Ireland
1% Remain in the UK
The overall results would be:
United Ireland 58.5%
Remain in UK 36%
Undecided 5.5%
With these percentages, it is clear that pro United Ireland political parties should be planning now for a Border Poll. Most of the support for Remaining in the UK is from the Protestant electorate. That electorate is declining at a rapid rate due to deaths greatly exceeding births and significant emigration.
"We in coming days may be" 
elegant analysis. well done Faha!
LikeLike
A very comprehensive assessment of the demographics leading into a Border Poll. And the bottom line is very encouraging.
However I would question whether foreign nationals, be they Catholic, Protestant or other, will vote for a UI in those numbers, if at all.
It seems to me that if an immigrant into NI had wanted to be in the Republic, then they would have emigrated to there in the first place, or even do it now. I further believe that they will be much less likely to want to risk the upheaval and political and economic uncertainty that a UI would bring.
I would not be surprised if the estimated 5:1 ratio was reversed for foreign nationals.
Similarly, I don’t expect many foreign nationals in the Republic to vote for instability and higher taxes (or reduced welfare) for something they have no interest in and will bring no benefit to them.
I think Ireland will either take on the mass immigration now unfolding, or else it could take on UI, but not both. And the former will scupper the latter.
There is a very small window for UI, between Nationalist becoming a majority in NI and disinterested Foreign Nationals and Globalist Gen Zs forming a retarding central block against constitutional change, North & South.
It looked like Sinn Fein were going to time their run perfectly to be in power on both sides of the border, just when that window would open, but it is now clear that they have decided to follow the SNP’s lead and sacrifice Self-Determination at the altar of woke/marxist ideology.
Southerners have woken up to the real life implications of SF’s philosophical, leftist policies of open-door immigration, repression of Free Speech and promotion of Trans rights etc. and SF will be denied Government yet again.
If SF ever get through, their even more draconian version of the Hate Speech Bill, than the Fine Gael/Green Party one, then it won’t be a country worth living in.
I expect the numbers to stack up for UI in NI in a few years, and to last for a few years, but there will be no SF Taoiseach to open the door and the moment will pass.
Instead, those numbers will be used in Stormont, to make NI a tolerable and permanent home for Irish people within the UK.
Nationalists, Republicans and Justice, will have lost, though Unionists won’t be celebrating much either.
LikeLiked by 1 person
EU nationals have been polled on a United Ireland since Brexit and support for remaining in the UK is less than 10%. This is not surprising since their status in the UK is uncertain and their family and friends are no longer permitted to emigrate to the UK. If Northern Ireland unites with Ireland then it is automatically back in the EU and their family members can join them in Northern Ireland. As for the other ethnic groups, Muslims in particular (up to 30,000 in Northern Ireland by 2031) are well aware of the hostility of unionist and loyalist politicians to their communities and for the strong support of unionist and loyalist politicians for Israel and the war against Palestinian Muslims. Do you really believe that Muslims will support unionist political parties that support genocide of Muslims ? Nationalist political parties are strongly supportive of Muslim Palestinians. There is also strong hostility among loyalists and unionists to other foreign nationals such as Black Africans. Perhaps the Chinese would prefer to remain in the UK, but they have the lowest voter registration of any ethnic group in Northern Ireland.
LikeLike
Thanks Faha,
I never doubted that your figures would be based on some published data (if a little outdated). And I really hope you’re proved right.
However , even the Polish Catholic guys I know, care little about our past injustices and sectarian discrimination and would vote purely based on how it would financially affect them. EU nationals wanting to be in a part of ireland in the EU, will move south if they haven’t already done so.
Muslims may dislike loyalists but they are still in the uk because they want to be and some may not even differentiate between the two Christian tribes.
Yes, we all support the Palestinians, but the Republic is already won over to that cause and the battle for Britains stance, is in the balance, where they could still make a difference.
I don’t think too many would vote for Unionist parties or even consider Stormont, but I do think they’d vote to continue Westminster rule in a BP.
By 2031, it’s possible the Israelis may have fully ‘ethnically cleansed’ Gaza, while Muslims from neighbouring Arab states may have reverted to dehumanising Palestinian refugees to justify their own countries refusal to take them in. I wouldn’t count on the Palestinian issue affecting a BP.
Perhaps they won’t vote at all, leaving it to the natives to settle it.
LikeLike
In Dublin, Simon Harris times his Stardust apology for 1 hour before Justice Minister Helen McEntee’s expected humiliation by TD & Barrister Michael McNamara in Committee. RTE duly oblige by not reporting the car crash performance of the Minister, which in any other country would lead to resignation, votes of no confidence and dismissal.
In Belfast, Alliance MLA Paddy Brown, already with many questions to be asked, announces his mid-term resignation, on the same day as wee Jeffrey D’s Court appearance. No doubt the BBC will give their ‘right-on’ darlings a pass on that too.
Looks like the media and our Political betters, have achieved perfect synchronicity between the two states. Sanctioned Unity can now proceed in a manner that they can continue to control and leech off the common citizen, who will experience no benefit.
Unity is only worth doing if we can break the old Class Cartels and their new woke successors, and make a better fairer country, that works for all of it’s citizens.
LikeLike