A slow train coming down the line

I’ve promised some numbers for the May elections to those who’ve stuck with this blog down the line and those who are used to me know that my consistent message has been the correllation between the demographics and the votes is startlingly close. The Westminster elections are a raw election. First past the post, no transfers, no messing. I disagree with the method but we work with what we have.

I’m looking at four constituencies. Newry- Armagh, FST, NB, and SB. I’m not looking at East Belfast as that is a entirely one off situation and largely an inter unionist issue. I will come back to it.

Ok. Here we go! I’m going to provide the raw proportional percentages over the last 2 Westminster elections, compare them with the 2011 census and see what you come up with.

 

 

 

 

 

 

Now lets take a look at the 2011 census community background figures and “go compare”:

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

It is obvious from the above figures that the census figures match the voting figures very closely. There are a few anomolies also, such as the increased Alliance vote in South Belfast in 2010. The Anna Lo factor obviously impacted on, primarily, the UUP vote for example.

We are five years down the road now from that particular vote. We know that the older unionist demographic is fading. We also know that immigration, emigration and electoral apathy are all factors.

The only certainty is that there is a slow train coming down the line for political unionism and sooner or later the chickens will be roosting.

May will give us all an indication of the next stop.

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Unionist Unity’s last Hurrah?

Tonight,

Ahead of schedule, it seems,  I have learned that we have a deal for Unionist Unity at last for the May elections. Apparently the official announcement is due in the morning   ( Wednesday 18th)

There are four constituencies involved. Fermanagh South Tyrone (No surprise), North Belfast (Stop the press!) Newry and Armagh and, wait for it …….East Belfast! Now that is a surprise.

Possibly of more interest are the omissions. Notably South Belfast but also South Antrim and Upper Bann.

Alliance may well view the move in East Belfast as a sign of panic in DUP ranks in that parish, Id regard it as an insurance policy. There is obviously a lack of confidence within the party regarding retaining that particular seat. If I was Naomi Long, I’d be licking my lips tonight, metaphorically of course.

Fermanagh? Tightest seat in christendom as well as the dreariest steeples.

My money is on SF retaining the seat. I base that on the demographic changes (On the way in detail shortly I promise) and the effect upon the nationalist electorate of good old unionist pacts in general.

Newry and Armagh? Not a hope for a unionist candidate, an obvious carrot for the UUP.

North Belfast? Now this could be fun. SF are very, very confident of this one. Will the UUP vote transfer to the DUP en masse or, as I suspect, will the middle class unionists of Cave Hill simply not vote rather than support the odiously and obviously sectarian manipulators of the local electorate (eg:Girdwood), their DUP representatives.

My take is that is a major win for the DUP. The only possible plus for the UUP is FST if they can win it. It is worth remembering that they didn’t manage that last time around with an agreed unity candidate, let alone a single UUP person.

It is fascinating that no agreed candidate has been selected for South Belfast. Does this signify an acknowledgement that the constituency is lost to Unionism? I don’t know.

I have the feeling that this election may be the last hurrah for unionist electoral pacts. They hark back, in my mind, to the hegemony of the single candidate days of the old UUP complete with gerrymandered constituencies and limited voter registration.

No doubt there will be denials issued that the sectarian headcount ideology or philosophy is in play. Make no mistake, it very much is.

If this play of the cards doesn’t work, what next for political Unionism?

 

Where are we now?

I’d like to extend my best wishes to all who read this blog for the new year. I trust everyone had a great Christmas and thanks for bearing with me during my recent quiet spell.

Back to business. Rather than going over the events of 2014 I’m going to take a look at the recently issued OFMDFM 2013 Labour Force Survey Report. This gives us an opportunity to take a look at the demographic changes that have occurred since 1990 and also includes information that is more up to date than the 2011 Census. The report in it’s entirety is available here.

2014 was a relatively quiet year demographically.The Euro and Local elections threw up few surprises on a low turnout. 2015 may, perhaps, be more interesting with the May Westminster election and the 2016 Assembly election 12 months hence.

Regarding my analysis of the report below, there are two important notes to be aware of:

• The definition of “Working age” changed in 2010 to include females between 59 and 64. (everyone else is defined as 16 to 64)
• Those respondents defining themselves as neither Catholic nor Protestant are excluded from the figures. It is my belief that the majority of those defining themselves as “Other” are, in fact from a Catholic background due to the fact that they are predominantly a younger demographic and therefore more likely to come from a Catholic upbringing which is less likely to define itself as such. It should be noted that Catholics were in a majority at every age below 42 in 2013 according to the 2011 Census.

As regular readers here may be aware, the demographic and electoral trend seems to have stalled somewhat in recent years with the Catholic/ Nationalist vote settling at around the 44% mark while the Unionist percentage continues to decline steadily and is currently around the 50% mark. I am firmly of the view that the potential nationalist electorate is under-represented across the North. I believe that this is due to a number of factors:

• Political apathy by the electorate
• Under registration of voters
• Poor candidate selection and lack of application in what are viewed as “Unionist” areas by Nationalist parties
• Lack of strategic vision. eg: Economic, Social, Political.
• Fragmentation of the vote due to a refusal on the part of the electorate to be defined as “one” or”t’other”. (A good thing in my view)

Here are some figure from the report:

 

I think the figures are pretty stark here. Between 1992 and 2013:

• Protestant working age economic participation declined by 4% while Catholic participation rose by 5%. A 9% swing. That is pretty dramatic in a 21 year period. Is it down to fair employment legislation or, perhaps, an ageing protestant workforce?
• Protestant unemployment rates declined from 9% to 6%. Great news. Catholic Unemployment rates declined from 18% to 9%. Halved. Of course the real story is that the gap was so large in the first place and is narrowing so quickly.

From the Report “Between 1990 and 2013, the proportion of the population aged 16 and over who reported
as Protestant decreased by eight percentage points from 56% to 48%, while the proportion
who reported as Catholic increased by three percentage points from 38% to 41%. Over
this period, the proportion of the population reported as ‘other/non-determined’ has almost
doubled (from 6% to 11%)”

From the report, between 1990 and 2013 the number of Protestants increased by 37,000, or 6%, to 680,000, while the number of Catholics increased by 148,000, or 34%, to 588,000 over the same period. The number of people aged 16 and over classified as ‘other/non-determined’ has more than doubled from 63,000 to 161,000 over this period.
By way of providing context to the figures obtained in the LFS sample, according to the
2011 Census there were 618,000 Protestants aged 16 and over in Northern Ireland,
compared to 567,000 Catholics, and 247,000 who would be considered ‘other/non determined’.
Thus, in 2011, 43% of those aged 16 and over were Protestant, 40% were
Catholic and 17% were ‘other/non-determined’.

Interesting? Perhaps we should look at the age profiles next?

 

Again, from the report: There were 166,000 Protestants aged 60 and over in 1990 and this had increased to 213,000 by 2013. The number of Catholics in this age group increased from 76,000 to 117,000 over the same period. The 11,000 aged 60 and over classified as ‘other/nondetermined’ in 1990 had more than doubled to 28,000 by 2013.

To provide context to the figures obtained in the LFS sample, Census figures from 2011
show that among those aged 60 and over, 55% (198,000) were Protestant, 33% (118,000) were Catholic, and 12% (42,000) would be considered ‘other/non-determined’.

And so what of the future?

Lets take a look at the 16 to 24 age cohort:

In Summary: Between 1990 and 2013, the number of Protestants in this age group has decreased by 25,000 (22%) to 91,000. The number of Catholics has also decreased over this period, albeit to a lesser extent, from 105,000 to 99,000 (6%). These decreases have been somewhat offset by an increase among those classified as ‘other/non-determined’; from16,000 in 1990 to 28,000 in 2013.
According to the 2011 Census, 36% of those aged 16 to 24 were Protestant (82,000), 44%were Catholic (100,000) and 20% were ‘other/non-determined’ (45,000)

I hope my fellow number crunchers have something to get their teeth into there. I certainly found it fascinating.

In the release of state papers over the last few days it was noted that in 1986, Maggie Thatcher was informed that nationalists in Ireland had a strategy of waiting, that time was on their side. There is undoubtedly a truth in that.

Athbhliain faoi mhaise dhuit!

 

 

 

Horseman predicts the future

Good evening,

I’ve been quiet of late due to a combination of some number crunching on behalf of nameless third parties, the summer silly season and some domestic stuff of no consequence. At the suggestion of commenter Jon Wallace I’ve begun some background work on continuing Horsemans annual balance sheet analysis for 2014. Enda, over at Endgame in Ulster, has previously done some good work on this here.

The general idea is to analyse demographic changes over the previous year and apply the findings to likely future trends. I’m happy as the proverbial Pig in the brown stuff doing this type of number crunching. The key figures are based around census returns, births, deaths, immigration, emigration, community background and, of course, election results. It may take me a while!

I’d spent a couple of hours on this today when I stumbled upon some interesting conclusions that I thought were worth sharing with you.

The 2001 Census results for community background by age were as following:

2001
Age Band	Catholic (%)	Protestant (%)	Other (%)	None (%)
0 to 4	49.1	43.1	0.4	7.4
5 to 9	49.5	44.9	0.3	5.3
10 to 14	50.4	45.3	0.3	4
15 to 19	51.4	45.2	0.3	3.1
20 to 24	49.5	47	0.5	3
25 to 29	46	50.4	0.6	3
30 to 34	44.7	51.9	0.6	2.8
35 to 39	44.6	52.6	0.5	2.4
40 to 44	43.7	54	0.5	1.8
45 to 49	42.2	55.6	0.5	1.7
50 to 54	39.7	58.6	0.4	1.4
55 to 59	36.6	62	0.3	1.1
60 to 64	35.8	63	0.3	0.9
65 to 69	35.1	63.9	0.2	0.7
70 to 74	33.4	65.8	0.2	0.7
75+	30.2	69.2	0.2	0.4

This, extrapolated to the 2011 census should have led to the following:

2011	BASED ON 2001
Age Band	Catholic (%)	Protestant (%)	Other (%)	None (%)
0 to 4
5 to 9
10 to 14	49.1%	43.1%	0.4%	7.4%
15 to 19	49.5%	44.9%	0.3%	5.3%
20 to 24	50.4%	45.3%	0.3%	4.0%
25 to 29	51.4%	45.2%	0.3%	3.1%
30 to 34	49.5%	47.0%	0.5%	3.0%
35 to 39	46.0%	50.4%	0.6%	3.0%
40 to 44	44.7%	51.9%	0.6%	2.8%
45 to 49	44.6%	52.6%	0.5%	2.4%
50 to 54	43.7%	54.0%	0.5%	1.8%
55 to 59	42.2%	55.6%	0.5%	1.7%
60 to 64	39.7%	58.6%	0.4%	1.4%
65 to 69	36.6%	62.0%	0.3%	1.1%
70 to 74	35.8%	63.0%	0.3%	0.9%
75+	32.9%	66.3%	0.2%	0.6%

The actual 2011 figures were:

2011 ACTUAL
Age Band	Catholic (%)	Protestant (%)	Other (%)	None (%)
0 to 4	49.2%	36.4%	1.0%	13.4%
5 to 9	49.3%	40.1%	0.8%	9.8%
10 to 14	49.5%	41.9%	0.7%	8.0%
15 to 19	49.0%	42.9%	0.6%	7.5%
20 to 24	48.9%	42.3%	0.8%	7.9%
25 to 29	50.9%	40.7%	1.2%	7.1%
30 to 34	49.7%	42.4%	1.5%	6.4%
35 to 39	46.8%	46.2%	1.3%	5.6%
40 to 44	45.4%	49.4%	1.0%	4.3%
45 to 49	44.7%	50.8%	0.9%	3.6%
50 to 54	43.5%	52.8%	0.8%	2.9%
55 to 59	42.1%	54.5%	0.8%	2.5%
60 to 64	39.2%	57.9%	0.8%	2.1%
65 to 69	36.3%	61.4%	0.8%	1.5%
70 to 74	35.4%	62.8%	0.7%	1.1%
75+	31.3%	67.2%	0.6%	0.8%

There has been much speculation here and elsewhere regarding the effects of immigration/ emigration and the increasing trend towards secularisation so how far out was Horseman with his predictions? Not a lot is the answer, here is the variation between his predictions and the actual results:

Difference
Age Band	Catholic (%)	Protestant (%)	Other (%)	None (%)
0 to 4
5 to 9
10 to 14	0.4%	-1.2%	0.3%	0.6%
15 to 19	-0.5%	-2.0%	0.3%	2.2%
20 to 24	-1.5%	-3.0%	0.5%	3.9%
25 to 29	-0.5%	-4.5%	0.9%	4.0%
30 to 34	0.2%	-4.6%	1.0%	3.4%
35 to 39	0.8%	-4.2%	0.7%	2.6%
40 to 44	0.7%	-2.5%	0.4%	1.5%
45 to 49	0.1%	-1.8%	0.4%	1.2%
50 to 54	-0.2%	-1.2%	0.3%	1.1%
55 to 59	-0.1%	-1.1%	0.3%	0.8%
60 to 64	-0.5%	-0.7%	0.4%	0.7%
65 to 69	-0.3%	-0.6%	0.5%	0.4%
70 to 74	-0.4%	-0.2%	0.4%	0.2%
75+	-1.6%	0.9%	0.4%	0.2%

My conclusion is that Horseman was incredibly accurate in his predictions. Regarding the Catholic proportion of the election he was accurate to within 1% in all bar two age groups and <1.6% in the exceptions. Regarding the Protestant community he was marginally less accurate but the difference is almost entirely accounted for by the other or none categories. I am yet to hear or see a reasoned argument countering his projections.

As always, it is actual votes that count in the real world. My thinking is that the nationalist electorate is somewhat under represented due to electoral apathy and low turnout. The way to turn that around is possibly to address the economic issues that motivate most people to turn out and vote. Perhaps it is about time for the economic case for a re-united Ireland to be coherently made.

Faha strikes again! Further analysis of the new councils

This is my more detailed analysis of the Causeway Coast and Glens, Mid and East Antrim, Antrim-Newtownabbey and Lisburn-Castlereagh council election. The party change in council vote between 2011 and 2014 was:

	Causeway Coast Glens 2014	Causeway Coast Glens 2011	Change
SF	9313	10110	-797
SDLP	5911	6005	-94
Nationalist	1658	1757	-99
Alliance	1822	1963	-141
Green	0	0	0
NI21	378	0	378
UUP	7978	7688	290
DUP	11459	16312	-4853
TUV	4840	2027	2813
PUP	777	0	777
UKIP	516	91	425
Unionist	773	3738	-2965
Conservative	129	0	129
Total	45554	49691	-4137

 

Overall, there was a 4,137 decline in the total vote between 2011 and 2014. Almost 1,000 of that decline was in the nationalist vote and over 3,300 of that decline was in the unionist vote.  This is one of the few councils where the decline in the unionist vote was higher than the decline of the nationalist vote. The decline in the nationalist vote was almost entirely due to the 797 fewer votes that Sinn Fein received in 2014. Approximately 300 votes of that SF decline was due to the fact that SF did not have a candidate in the Causeway DEA. The other 500 vote decline was entirely in the 2 Limavady DEA’s. This was probably due to local factors. Limavady council was originally supposed to be part of the Derry council. The DUP decided, with SF cooperation, to transfer Limavady to this unionist majority council instead. Most likely, the 500 vote SF decline is due to voters who stayed home because they were upset with the SF-DUP decision to transfer Limavady to unionist control. However, the bigger story here is the massive collapse in the DUP vote. The DUP lost 30% of their 2011 vote. Most of these voters defected to the TUV, PUP and UKIP though some stayed home. There was a large decline in the independent unionist vote but half of that decline was due to voters who voted for David McClarty in 2011.

In Mid and East Antrim the change in party vote between 2011 and 2014 was:

	Mid & East Antrim 2014	Mid & East Antrim 2011	Change
SF	3118	2769	349
SDLP	1864	2712	-848
Nationalist	188	246	-58
Alliance	4277	5102	-825
Green	0	404	-404
NI21	783	0	783
UUP	7665	7876	-211
DUP	12520	19729	-7209
TUV	6266	4043	2223
PUP	1352	146	1206
UKIP	749	0	749
Unionist	2747	3954	-1207
Conservative	107	0	107
Total	41636	46981	-5345

 

Overall, there was a 5,345 vote decline between 2011 and 2014. The decline in the unionist vote was much larger than the decline in the nationalist vote. The decline in the total vote is proportional to the underlying unionist and nationalist electorate as the nationalist electorate is only 20% in this council. The SF vote was up but only because the SDLP did not have a candidate in Bannside so SDLP voters voted SF or Alliance in 2014. The SDLP appear to have partly abandoned competing in this council as they competed in only 3 of the 7 DEA’s whereas SF competed in 5 of the DEA’s. The Alliance Green vote was also down significantly. Some of these voters may have voted NI21 but many stayed home. As in Causeway Coast and Glens the big story here is the massive decline in the DUP vote, down 37% from 2011. Half of the decline in the 2011 DUP vote was due to voters who defected to the TUV, PUP and UKIP but the other half stayed home.

In Antrim-Newtownabbey the change in party vote between 2011 and 2014 was:

	Antrim Newtownabbey 2014	Antrim Newtownabbey 2011	Change
SF	5434	5578	-144
SDLP	3746	4273	-527
Nationalist	0	250	-250
Alliance	5535	6415	-880
Green	0	0	0
NI21	1357	0	1357
UUP	8921	8798	123
DUP	14082	17157	-3075
TUV	2479	363	2116
PUP	1285	615	670
UKIP	0	0	0
Unionist	143	1052	-909
Conservative	0	0	0
Total	42982	44501	-1519

 

Overall, there was a 1,519 vote decline between the 2011 and 2014 elections. The majority of that decline (921) was a decline in votes for nationalist candidates. These nationalist voters stayed home. The Alliance vote was also down by 880 but those were voters who defected to NI21. The DUP vote was down by 3,075 and these were voters who defected to the TUV and PUP. While it appears the overall unionist vote was down, in reality it was unchanged from 2011. There were no TUV and PUP candidates in the Dunsilly, Airport and Glengormley DEA’s. The unionist vote in the Euro election was 9,000 votes higher for all of Northern Ireland and this is one council where many of those extra votes were located. The DUP decline here would have been much worse if the TUV, PUP and UKIP had competed in these 3 DEA’s.

In Lisburn-Castlereagh the change in party vote between 2011 and 2014 was:

	Lisburn Castlereagh 2014	Lisburn Castlereagh 2011	Change
SF	2132	2435	-303
SDLP	3658	4400	-742
Nationalist	33	83	-50
Alliance	5492	7758	-2266
Green	699	967	-268
NI21	3173	0	3173
UUP	7311	8266	-955
DUP	18520	22971	-4451
TUV	2720	289	2431
PUP	695	0	695
UKIP	824	0	824
Unionist	136	450	-314
Conservative	376	337	39
Total	45769	47956	-2187

 

It was difficult to determine the change in party vote in Dunmurry Cross, Castlereagh West and Castlereagh East since these DEA’s were divided between Belfast and Lisburn-Castlereagh in the new councils but my approximation should be reasonably accurate based on the underlying demographics. Half the overall vote decline between 2011 and 2014 was due to nationalist voters who stayed home. There was a large decline of 2,534 in the Alliance-Green vote. Probably half of those voters defected to NI21 and the other half stayed home. There was a large 20% decline of 4,451 in the DUP vote. Most of these voters defected to the TUV, PUP and UKIP. The DUP vote decline would have been greater but there was no competition from the TUV, PUP or UKIP in Killultagh DEA.

I have calculated the unionist and nationalist turnout in all DEA’s using the 2011 voting age population as recorded in the 2011 census.

Turnout DEA	Nationalist	Unionist
Benbradagh	43%	50%
Limavady	35%	54%
Bann	47%	60%
Coleraine	28%	40%
Causeway	27%	47%
Ballymoney	40%	48%
The Glens	55%	38%
Ballymena	26%	43%
Bannside	43%	56%
Braid	50%	48%
Carrick Castle	18%	42%
Coast Road	38%	46%
Knockagh	20%	50%
Larne Lough	19%	40%
Airport	48%	48%
Antrim	25%	40%
Ballyclare	20%	41%
Dunsilly	49%	50%
Glengormley Urban	39%	44%
Macedon	29%	44%
3MileWater	18%	48%
Castlereagh East	25%	45%
Castlereagh South	47%	43%
Downshire East	20%	53%
Downshire West	23%	42%
Killultagh	42%	47%
Lisburn North	33%	45%
Lisburn South	20%	43%

 

In Causeway Coast and Glens nationalist turnout is much lower than unionist turnout in all DEA’s except the Glens where it is 55%. The low turnout resulted in the loss of a SF councilor in Bann DEA as well as one in Ballymoney DEA. Even though there are 2.6 nationalist quotas in Ballymoney DEA only 1 nationalist councilor was elected. In Mid and East Antrim, only in the Braid DEA does nationalist turnout equal unionist turnout. In all other DEA’s the nationalist turnout is much lower than unionist turnout. In Antrim-Newtownabbey nationalist turnout equals unionist turnout in the Airport and Dunsilly DEA’s but in all other DEA’s it is much lower. In the Antrim DEA it was only 25% and SF lost their seat here in a DEA with 2.6 nationalist quotas. In Macedon DEA, with 1.6 nationalist quotas in the electorate, neither SF nor the SDLP elected a councilor. In Lisburn-Castlereagh nationalist turnout exceeded unionist turnout in Castlereagh South but was much lower than unionist turnout in 5 DEA’s. In Castlereagh South it appears that 2/3 of the Alliance NI21 vote came from the Catholic electorate. Although the nationalist turnout in Killultagh was only 5% lower than unionist turnout, that 5% translated into 250 fewer votes which resulted in the SF candidate losing a seat.

What would have been the outcome for Westminster and Assembly elections if they had been held the same day? Here are the estimated vote totals and percentages.

Westminster Assembly	East Derry	North Antrim	E Antrim	S Antrim	Lagan Valley
SF	6098	5322	1788	3801	1037
SDLP	4885	2812	1175	3280	1605
Nationalist	252	1176	670	0	33
Alliance	1482	1525	3904	2994	2927
Green	0	0	0	0	257
NI21	385	355	809	967	2629
UUP	5627	6731	6190	6665	6760
DUP	8554	13385	7638	8592	14505
TUV	2867	7015	2205	1546	1846
PUP	810	183	1481	470	203
UKIP	438	153	749	0	824
Unionist	602	1546	1529	143	74
Conservative	0	129	107	0	376
Total	31998	40331	28246	28458	33077
SF	19.06%	13.19%	6.33%	13.36%	3.13%
SDLP	15.27%	6.97%	4.16%	11.53%	4.85%
Nationalist	0.79%	2.91%	2.37%	0.00%	0.10%
Alliance	4.63%	3.78%	13.82%	10.52%	8.85%
Green	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.78%
NI21	1.20%	0.88%	2.86%	3.40%	7.95%
UUP	17.59%	16.69%	21.91%	23.42%	20.44%
DUP	26.73%	33.19%	27.04%	30.19%	43.85%
TUV	8.96%	17.39%	7.81%	5.43%	5.58%
PUP	2.53%	0.45%	5.24%	1.65%	0.61%
UKIP	1.37%	0.38%	2.65%	0.00%	2.49%
Unionist	1.88%	3.83%	5.41%	0.50%	0.22%
Conservative	0.00%	0.32%	0.38%	0.00%	1.14%

 

In East Derry there would be no change for Westminster but the TUV would win an Assembly seat (probably Douglas Boyd) on PUP and UKIP transfers. In North Antrim there would be no change in Westminster but Jim Allister would easily be elected to the Assembly. Depending on transfers and DUP balancing, there could be a 2^nd TUV seat here. The SDLP would be far short of a seat with only half a quota 1^st preference.  In East Antrim, there would be no change in Westminster though the UUP is only 5% behind the DUP and depending on whom TUV, PUP, and UKIP voters support the UUP could make this seat competitive. For Assembly, the TUV should win a seat since the combined TUV, PUP, and UKIP vote is over a quota. This gain would come at the expense of SF. There are 5 unionist quotas and Alliance are just short of a quota but would pick up enough NI21 votes and SDLP transfers to keep their seat. SF, at 6.3%, would be far short of a quota even if most of the 6.5% SDLP-independent nationalist vote transfers to SF (which did not occur in 2011). In South Antrim, there probably would be no change for Westminster. However, the DUP council vote overestimates their true strength since the TUV, PUP and UKIP did not compete in 3 DEA’s. It is possible that there would be a TUV seat in the Assembly election since the true TUV vote would be much higher than 5.4% as they did not compete in 3 if the DEA’s. There is still only 1 nationalist seat here. In Lagan Valley, there would be no change in Westminster. For the Assembly, the TUV would be competing with the UUP for the 5^th unionist seat. The nationalist vote is only half a quota despite and electorate of 1.4 quotas.

Down and Armagh- Fahas post election view

This is my more detailed analysis of the Armagh and Down councils of Armagh-Banbridge-Craigavon, Newry-Mourne-Down and North Down-Ards. The party change in council vote between 2011 and 2014 was:

	Armagh Banbridge Craigavon 2014	Armagh Banbridge Craigavon 2011	Change
SF	13591	17234	-3643
SDLP	10083	11614	-1531
Nationalist	490	1252	-762
Alliance	2440	1929	511
Green	0	0	0
NI21	884	0	884
UUP	18882	19900	-1018
DUP	17734	21074	-3340
TUV	1852	1565	287
PUP	1274	0	1274
UKIP	1322	122	1200
Unionist	2100	1136	964
Conservative	0	0	0
Independent (Alliance-Green)
Total	70652	75826	-5174

 

Overall, there was a 5,174 decline in the total vote between 2011 and 2014. The decline in the nationalist vote was 5,936 and the decline in the unionist vote was 633.  There probably was no actual decline in the unionist vote and turnout since that 633 vote decline was due to unionist voters who voted NI21. The Alliance vote was up mainly because they competed in 2 additional DEA’s. The decline in the SF vote was over twice that of the SDLP. Indeed, 20% of all nationalist voters who voted in 2011 stayed home in 2014. The decline in the DUP vote was almost as large as that for SF. The DUP voters defected to the TUV, PUP and UKIP and independent unionists. Half the decline in the UUP vote was probably votes lost to NI21. The only expected change (compared to the results expected from the 2011 vote) was the loss of a SF seat in Craigavon to the DUP and in the Portadown DEA where the UUP and UKIP each picked up additional seats at the expense of the DUP.

In Newry-Mourne-Down the change in party vote between 2011 and 2014 was:

 

	Newry Mourne Down 2014	Newry Mourne Down 2011	Change
SF	22613	24083	-1470
SDLP	18568	20309	-1741
Nationalist	2240	3335	-1095
Alliance	1460	1330	130
Green	839	1417	-578
NI21	526	0	526
UUP	7314	7500	-186
DUP	4635	5454	-819
TUV	433	408	25
PUP	0	0	0
UKIP	2371	1910	461
Unionist	0	0	0
Conservative	0	0	0
Independent (Alliance-Green)
Total	60999	65746	-4747

 

Overall, there was a 4,747 vote decline between 2011 and 2014. There was a 4,306 decline in the nationalist vote and only a 519 decline in the unionist vote. The actual decline in the unionist vote and turnout was actually minimal since some of those voters voted for NI21. The Green candidate in Downpatrick in 2011 stood as an independent in 2014 but I included his vote as Green.

For North Down-Ards the change in party vote between 2011 and 2014 was:

	North Down Ards 2014	North Down Ards 2011	Change
SF	388	0	388
SDLP	1959	1983	-24
Nationalist	0	0	0
Alliance	6243	9073	-2830
Green	2023	2025	-2
NI21	1441	0	1441
UUP	6797	7809	-1012
DUP	14244	20763	-6519
TUV	2252	830	1422
PUP	0	0	0
UKIP	1180	427	753
Unionist	3548	4453	-905
Conservative	1554	856	698
Independent (Alliance-Green)	0	1458	-1458
Total	41629	49677	-8048

 

There was a large decline in turnout of 8,048 voters between 2011 and 2014. Most of that decline was due to the decline in the DUP vote. I estimate that 2/3 of the DUP vote decline was due to voters who stayed home and the other 1/3 defected to the TUV and UKIP. The decline in the UUP vote was probably due to voters who voted for NI21. There also was a large decline in the Alliance vote. Brian Wilson (formerly Green/Alliance) did not stand in 2014 and most of his vote probably went to Green and Alliance candidates. Overall, the nonsectarian vote decline from 2011 accounts for half of the 8,048 vote decline.

I have calculated the unionist and nationalist turnout in all DEA’s using the 2011 voting age population as recorded in the 2011 census. In 4 of North Down-Ards DEA’s it is difficult to estimate the turnout of the Catholic population due to the absence of nationalist candidates. I have used 2011 transfer data to provide estimates. My estimates of Catholic turnout may be high in all DEA’s except Ards Peninsula. For example in the Bangor Central DEA the combined Alliance-Green-NI21 vote was 1509. I assumed that 500 (33%) was from the Catholic electorate even though the Catholic electorate is only 11% in this DEA. The turnout calculation was 20%. It could be as low as 15%. In Holywood and Bangor West DEA’s, it appears that 2/3 of Catholics do not vote for nationalist parties and this would probably be true in the other DEA’s if the SDLP competed.

Turnout DEA	Nationalist	Unionist
Armagh	43%	53%
Banbridge	39%	51%
Craigavon	42%	64%
Cusher	51%	57%
Lagan River	29%	53%
Lurgan	38%	51%
Portadown	36%	50%
Crotlieve	51%	44%
Downpatrick	48%	33%
Newry	43%	20%
Rowallane	40%	45%
Slieve Croob	45%	46%
Slieve Gullion	61%	57%
The Mournes	46%	56%
Ards Peninsula	42%	33%
Bangor Central	20%	36%
Bangor East and Donaghadee	18%	41%
Bangor West	23%	38%
Comber	20%	44%
Holywood and Clandeboye	28%	42%
Newtownards	18%	42%

 

The Protestant electorate has not changed since 2011 so the unionist turnout figures should be very accurate though they underestimate unionist turnout in some DEA’s where the TUV or UKIP did not compete since some of those voters voted in the Euro election but not the council election. The nationalist turnout figures probably overestimate the nationalist turnout by 1% to 3% because they do not account for the increase in the nationalist electorate since 2011, which would be over 20,000 for all of Northern Ireland.

Of the 7 DEA’s in Armagh-Banbridge-Craigavon nationalist turnout is much lower than unionist turnout in all DEA’s ranging from 6% less in Cusher to 24% less in Lagan River. In the Craigavon DEA it was 22% less. The Craigavon DEA has a nationalist electorate of 56% and a unionist electorate of 44% yet the unionist vote exceeded the nationalist vote and 3 unionists were elected and only 2 nationalists. In my analysis earlier this year of this new council I estimated it would have a nationalist majority in 40 years. Based on the 2014 turnout, I would postpone that date to the next century.

In the Newry-Mourne-Down council the picture is more mixed, with nationalist turnout higher in 4 DEA’s and lower in 2. In the Downpatrick and Newry DEA’s it appears that the unionist electorate has declined below that critical mass required to maintain party structure and turnout.

In North Down-Ards unionist turnout is down sharply from 2011. Nationalist turnout is probably down also but is difficult to quantify.

What would have been the outcome for Westminster and Assembly elections if they had been held the same day? Here are the estimated vote totals and percentages.

Westminster Assembly	Newry Armagh	Upper Bann	S Down	Strangford	North Down
SF	17409	8800	10842	802	0
SDLP	9745	5168	12199	2378	572
Nationalist	1086	490	1005	112	0
Alliance	161	1855	1066	2909	3810
Green	0	0	839	0	2023
NI21	9	632	333	774	907
UUP	8071	9947	4808	5437	4290
DUP	4126	11426	2909	10436	7730
TUV	72	1328	0	1489	1153
PUP	54	1220	0	0	0
UKIP	322	1000	2371	427	753
Unionist	1927	71	0	2054	2839
Conservative	0	0	0	690	864
Total	42981	41937	36372	27507	24941
SF	40.50%	20.98%	29.81%	2.92%	0.00%
SDLP	22.67%	12.32%	33.54%	8.64%	2.29%
Nationalist	2.53%	1.17%	2.76%	0.41%	0.00%
Alliance	0.38%	4.42%	2.93%	10.58%	15.28%
Green	0.00%	0.00%	2.31%	0.00%	8.11%
NI21	0.02%	1.51%	0.92%	2.81%	3.64%
UUP	18.78%	23.72%	13.22%	19.77%	17.20%
DUP	9.60%	27.25%	8.00%	37.94%	30.99%
TUV	0.17%	3.17%	0.00%	5.41%	4.62%
PUP	0.13%	2.91%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%
UKIP	0.75%	2.39%	6.52%	1.55%	3.02%
Unionist	4.48%	0.17%	0.00%	7.47%	11.38%
Conservative	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	2.51%	3.46%

 

In Newry&Armagh there would be no change in either the Assembly or Westminster election. In Upper Bann, the SDLP would retain their Assembly seat on nationalist, Alliance and NI21 transfers. There probably would still be 2 DUP and 2 UUP as the combined TUV, UKIP, and PUP vote is only 8.5%. Since these parties did not compete in Banbridge DEA the true total may be 10% but this would not be enough to threaten the 2^nd UUP seat. There would be no change for Westminster. In South Down UKIP could take an Assembly seat from the DUP. UKIP was at 6.5% and the DUP at 8%. However, UKIP did not compete in all the DEA’s nor did the TUV. It is possible that the combined UKIP-TUV vote actually exceeded the DUP vote in the Euro election. Expect Henry Reilly to be a serious contender in the 2016 Stormont election. In Strangford, there would be no nationalist seat as the combined nationalist vote is 2% less than a quota. Alliance should be elected on NI21 and independent unionist transfers. It appears there would be 2 UUP and 3 DUP. The combined UKIP –TUV vote is only half a quota but could threaten the 2^nd UUP seat depending on who the independent unionists (7.5%) vote for in an Assembly election. North Down would probably be unchanged with the Green party winning an Assembly seat on SDLP, NI21 and other transfers.

Fahas Western View

This is my more detailed analysis of the western councils of Derry Strabane, Fermanagh Omagh and Mid Ulster. The party change in council vote between 2011 and 2014 was:

 

	Derry Strabane 2014	Derry Strabane 2011	Change
SF	19384	20845	-1461
SDLP	13792	17410	-3618
Nationalist	5909	5832	77
Alliance	853	359	494
Green	0	0	0
NI21	0	0	0
UUP	4065	4001	64
DUP	8273	10120	-1847
TUV	521	0	521
PUP	274	204	70
UKIP	694	0	694
Unionist	0	0	0
Conservative	0	0	0
Total	53765	58771	-5006

 

There was a large decline in the SDLP vote (mainly in Derry) and a lesser decline in the SF vote. The DUP vote was also down, more so than the SF vote. Overall, there was a 5,000 vote decline in the nationalist vote, a 500 vote decline in the unionist vote and a 494 vote increase in Alliance vote. The increased Alliance vote is due to competing in more DEA’s. Some unionist voters in the Euro election (TUV, PUP and UKIP) did not vote in the council election due to their party not standing in some DEA’s and some unionist votes and nationalist votes were lost to Alliance. The unionist vote may have been down minimally when taking into account these factors. The biggest surprise here was the collapse of the SDLP vote. Since the SF vote also declined and the independent nationalist vote barely increased the SDLP and SF voters stayed home. Dissident republicans and other independent nationalists benefited with an IRSP seat in Sperrin and 3 independents in Derry.

In Fermanagh Omagh the change in party vote between 2011 and 2014 was:

 

	Fermanagh Omagh 2014	Fermanagh Omagh 2011	Change
SF	19486	21629	-2143
SDLP	7164	6810	354
Nationalist	2214	4145	-1931
Alliance	819	443	376
Green	71	63	8
NI21	0	0	0
UUP	9612	10558	-946
DUP	7075	8956	-1881
TUV	1091	309	782
PUP	0	0	0
UKIP	296	0	296
Unionist	0	0	0
Conservative	0	0	0
Total	47828	52913	-5085

 

There was a 3720 vote decline in the nationalist vote and a 1749 decline in the unionist vote. The SDLP vote increased and there was a large decline in the SF and independent nationalist vote. The improved SDLP vote led to additional councilors in Erne East and Omagh Town. The decline in nationalist and unionist turnout was proportional to their share of the electorate though the true unionist decline would have been less since some Euro unionist voters did not vote in the council election.

In Mid Ulster the change in party vote between 2011 and 2014 was:

	Mid Ulster 2014	Mid Ulster 2011	Change
SF	22287	24167	-1880
SDLP	7600	9381	-1781
Nationalist	2571	2889	-318
Alliance	450	298	152
Green	0	0	0
NI21	0	0	0
UUP	9574	9145	429
DUP	9723	11361	-1638
TUV	2370	2638	-268
PUP	0	0	0
UKIP	195	0	195
Unionist	118	0	118
Conservative	0	0	0
Total	54888	59879	-4991

 

The nationalist vote declined 3,979 and the unionist vote declined 1164. The true unionist decline would have been less. The main surprises were the loss of a SF seat to the SDLP in Dungannon and the loss of an expected SDLP seat in Moyola to the UUP that was due to the decline in nationalist turnout.

I have calculated the unionist and nationalist turnout in all DEA’s using the 2011 voting age population as recorded in the 2011 census. For example, Erne North had a Catholic electorate of 5,577, a Protestant electorate of 5,290 and Other/None of 257 and I estimated the overall nationalist electorate at ~5,700 and the unionist electorate ~5,400. The SF-SDLP vote was 2,589 for a turnout of 45%. The unionist party vote was 3,701 for a turnout of 69%. The Protestant electorate has not changed since 2011 so the unionist turnout figures should be very accurate though they underestimate unionist turnout in some DEA’s where the TUV or UKIP did not compete since some of those voters voted in the Euro election but not the council election. The nationalist turnout figures probably overestimate the nationalist turnout by 1% to 3% because they do not account for the increase in the nationalist electorate since 2011, which would be over 20,000 for all of Northern Ireland.

Turnout DEA	Nationalist	Unionist
Erne East 6	67%	70%
Erne West 5	66%	66%
Erne North 5	45%	69%
Enniskillen 6	42%	49%
Omagh 6	37%	50%
Mid Tyrone 6	67%	67%
West Tyrone 6	56%	68%
Clogher Valley 6	55%	71%
Dungannon 6	39%	57%
Torrent 6	48%	63%
Cookstown 7	49%	59%
Magherafelt 5	48%	54%
Moyola 5	59%	60%
Carntogher 5	63%	54%
Derg 5	62%	65%
Sperrin 7	52%	54%
Faughan 5	41%	43%
Waterside 7	43%	48%
Foyleside 5	47%	NA
Ballyarnett 6	49%	NA
The Moor 5	57%	NA

 

Carntogher DEA is the only DEA in which nationalist turnout was higher than unionist turnout. There are 7 DEA’s where nationalist turnout is similar to unionist turnout. In half the DEA’s nationalist turnout is much lower than unionist turnout. Indeed, even though the Catholic electorate in the Erne North, Enniskillen and Clogher Valley DEA’s exceeds the Protestant electorate, the unionist vote was higher than the nationalist vote in all 3 of those DEA’s!

What would have been the outcome for Westminster and Assembly elections if they had been held the same day? Here are the estimated vote totals and percentages.

Westminster Assembly	Foyle	West Tyrone	FST	Mid Ulster
SF	12035	16886	14074	18267
SDLP	11391	6111	5488	5772
Nationalist	4244	1818	3521	1231
Alliance	853	671	401	117
Green	0	198	71	0
NI21	0	0	0	0
UUP	2056	5239	10560	5932
DUP	4512	6993	7763	5761
TUV	0	521	1587	1884
PUP	274	0	0	0
UKIP	696	0	296	195
Unionist	0	0	0	0
Conservative	0	0	0	0
Total	36061	38437	43761	39159
SF	33.37%	43.93%	32.16%	46.65%
SDLP	31.59%	15.90%	12.54%	14.74%
Nationalist	11.77%	4.73%	8.05%	3.14%
Alliance	2.37%	1.75%	0.92%	0.30%
Green	0.00%	0.52%	0.16%	0.00%
NI21	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%
UUP	5.70%	13.63%	24.13%	15.15%
DUP	12.51%	18.19%	17.74%	14.71%
TUV	0.00%	1.36%	3.63%	4.81%
PUP	0.76%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%
UKIP	1.93%	0.00%	0.68%	0.50%
Unionist	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%
Conservative	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%

 

For Stormont there would be no change in Mid Ulster and West Tyrone. It would be 3 SF, 1 SDLP, 1 UUP and 1 DUP in both constituencies. For Westminster, there would also be no change in Mid Ulster and West Tyrone.  In Foyle, there would be no change with 3 SDLP, 2 SF and 1 DUP.  Although the SF  vote exceeds the SDLP in the 2011 election 80% of the unionist surplus transferred to the SDLP as well as much of the Alliance vote. As there was 7% unionist surplus 5.5% of that, along with 1.5% of the Alliance vote would bring the SDLP total up to 38.5%, far exceeding the SF percentage. Westminster could be a different outcome. The SF vote is ~650 higher than the SDLP vote. However, in the 2010 election, approximately 20% of the unionist vote voted tactically for the SDLP, which would have been 1,500 votes in this election. The big unknown would be how the 4,244 independent nationalist would vote. Of course, many of the dissident republican voters may not vote in a Westminster election so it is difficult to predict the outcome in 2015.

In Fermanagh South Tyrone the UUP vote exceeded the DUP vote by over 6% so it appears that the UUP would pick up an Assembly seat from the DUP. The SDLP would also pick up a seat from SF. At 12.54% they would pick up enough of the unionist surplus and Alliance transfers to reach a quota and would receive some of the 8% independent nationalist transfers. It appears that SF would lose a Westminster seat to a unionist unity candidate. There are several reasons for this. The Dungannon DEA does not match the Westminster boundaries. A section of Killyman ward with 400 to 500 unionists is actually in the Craigavon council and another section with 400 to 500 nationalist votes is actually in Mid Ulster. So the unionist vote would be 1% higher and the nationalist vote 1% lower based on the actual Westminster boundaries. Another reason is that EU nationals are not permitted to vote in Westminster elections. There were 3,000 EU nationals on the electoral register for the council elections and if 800 of these voted there would be another 1% shift in the nationalist unionist balance. The last reason is that the actual unionist vote total is higher because some TUV and UKIP voters that voted in the Euro election did not vote in the council election due to the lack of candidates. There were no such candidates in Clogher Valley and Erne West. I estimate and additional 400+ unionist votes. So with the Westminster electorate the combined nationalist vote would be at most 51% and the unionist vote would be at least 48%. The SDLP vote was 7.6% in 2010 and would need to collapse to less than 3% for SF to win. This is unlikely to occur. Unless there is an end to nationalist apathy a unionist unity candidate will win Westminster in 2015.

The Post Mortem- by Faha

Now that the election is over, it is time for the post-election analysis to begin. Much of the mainstream media and even some of the political parties have concentrated on comparing the 2014 Euro election with the 2009 election. I believe a more valid comparison would be to compare the 2014 party vote totals in the 2014 Euro election with the 2011 Assembly party vote totals. The 2014 council elections can also be easily compared with the 2011 council elections. These were the results for the district council elections in 2011 and 2014.

2014 Council	Total	2011	Change
SF	151258	163712	-12454	258624	-26767
SDLP	85603	99325	-13722
Nationalist	21763	22354	-591
Alliance	41803	48859	-7056	48157	-7056
Green	6354	6317	37
NI21	11495	0	11495
UUP	101375	100643	732		1056
DUP	144886	179436	-34550	309625	-10439
TUV	28161	13079	15082
PUP	12553	3858	8695
UKIP	9313	2550	6763
Unionist	10810	19177	-8367
Conservative	2527	1321	1206
Total	627901	660631	-32730

 

SF	24.09%	24.78%	-0.69%	41.19%	Nationalist	-2.01%
SDLP	13.63%	15.03%	-1.40%
Nationalist	3.47%	3.38%	0.08%
Alliance	6.66%	7.40%	-0.74%	7.67%	Alliance-Green	-0.68%
Green	1.01%	0.96%	0.06%
NI21	1.83%	0.00%	1.83%	51.14%	Unionist-NI21	2.69%
UUP	16.15%	15.23%	0.91%	49.31%	Unionist	0.86%
DUP	23.07%	27.16%	-4.09%
TUV	4.48%	1.98%	2.51%
PUP	2.00%	0.58%	1.42%
UKIP	1.48%	0.39%	1.10%
Unionist	1.72%	2.90%	-1.18%
Conservative	0.40%	0.20%	0.20%

 

These were the results for the 2014 Euro elections and comparing those results with the 2011 Assembly elections.

	Euro 2014	Assembly 2011	Change
SF	159813	178224	-18411	241407	-44479
SDLP	81594	94286	-12692
Nationalist	0	13376	-13376
Alliance	44432	50875	-6443	55030	-1876
Green	10598	6031	4567
NI21	10553	0	10553		10744
UUP	83438	87531	-4093		191
DUP	131163	198436	-67273	319135
TUV	75806	16480	59326
PUP	0	1493	-1493
UKIP	24584	4152	20432
Unionist	0	10852	-10852
Conservative	4144	0	4144
Total	626125	661736	-35611

 

 

SF	25.52%	26.93%	-1.41%	38.56%	Nationalist	-4.65%
SDLP	13.03%	14.25%	-1.22%
Nationalist	0.00%	2.02%	-2.02%
Alliance	7.10%	7.69%	-0.59%	8.79%	Alliance-Green	0.19%
Green	1.69%	0.91%	0.78%
NI21	1.69%	0.00%	1.69%	52.66%	Unionist-NI21	4.46%
UUP	13.33%	13.23%	0.10%	50.97%	Unionist	2.77%
DUP	20.95%	29.99%	-9.04%
TUV	12.11%	2.49%	9.62%
PUP	0.00%	0.23%	-0.23%
UKIP	3.93%	0.63%	3.30%
Unionist	0.00%	1.64%	-1.64%
Conservative	0.66%	0.00%	0.66%

 

The council elections saw a decline in turnout of 32,730. This was almost entirely due to nationalist voters staying home. The decline in the nationalist vote was 27,767. The decline in the Alliance-Green vote was 7,056. The unionist vote is more difficult to determine due to the presence of NI21. NI21 was a unionist party until 1 day before the election when it designated as unaligned. If it is not considered unionist then the unionist vote declined 10,439. If it is considered unionist then the unionist vote increased 1,056. Transfers in the council and Euro elections indicated that only half of the NI21 vote originated from unionist voters (usually UUP). I estimate that the unionist vote was down 5,000 and the Alliance Green vote was down 1,000 if NI21 did not compete in this election. Most of the decline of 32,730 between the 2011 and 2014 council elections was due to the 27,767 decrease in nationalist votes. The nationalist decline was slightly higher for SF than the SDLP but the percentage decline was greater for the SDLP. Since the independent nationalist vote was also down there is no evidence that the decline in SF and SDLP votes is due to defection to independent nationalists. The voters just stayed home. The Green vote was unchanged but the Alliance vote was down 7,000. Most of the decline in the Alliance vote is due to voters who defected to NI21 though a few may have defected to the UUP. In the unionist electorate there was a large decline in the DUP vote of 34,550, almost 20% of their 2011 vote. Almost that entire vote defected to the TUV, PUP, and UKIP. However, some DUP voters also defected to the UUP. This is difficult to discern because the UUP vote was only up 732. However, the UUP lost some votes to NI21 and gained an equal number from the DUP and ended up essentially unchanged. If NI21 had not competed the UUP vote would have been up approximately 6,000.

The Euro election results are more enlightening and present a more accurate picture of political party strength than the council elections. This is because in the council elections the smaller parties such as Alliance, Green, TUV, UKIP, and PUP do not compete in many DEA’s so their voters cannot vote for them in a council election. Other than the PUP, this was not an issue in the Euro election. Compared to the 2011 Assembly vote the Euro vote was down 35,611. The nationalist vote was down 44,479, much more than in the council elections. The Alliance-Green vote was down 1,876 and the unionist vote was up 191. The actual unionist vote was up ~ 5,000 since half the NI21 vote originated from unionist parties and the Alliance-Green vote would also have been up due to the same reasons. You will notice some unusual anomalies when comparing the council vote and the Euro vote which I will provide an explanation for. The unionist vote in the Euro election was 319,135 compared to 309,625 in the council election, which was 9,059 higher. The nationalist vote was 17,207 lower in the Euro election compared to the council election. The Alliance Green vote was also 6,873 votes higher in the Euro election. How could this be? For the nationalist vote the reason is that in the council election there were many independent nationalist candidates who received 21,763 votes. Half of that vote was for dissident republican candidates. The combined SF-SDLP vote was 4,546 higher in the Euro election so 4,546 of that 21, 763 voted for SF or SDLP in the Euro election. It appears that another 6,873 voted Alliance Green in the Euro election. While a very small number voted for a unionist candidate it appears that 10,000 did not vote in the Euro election. There were actually 636,000 people who voted in the Euro election but 10,000 of those votes were invalid. Tweets and other observations from the polling stations indicated that most of these were blank ballots rather than spoiled ballots. So 10,000 of those independent nationalist voters who voted in the council election did not vote in the Euro election. The unionist vote in the Euro election was 9,510 higher in the Euro election compared to the council election. How could this possibly be? The Alliance Green vote was also higher in the Euro election so it is not possible that Alliance Green council voters voted unionist in the Euro election. The reason is that in the council elections there were 9,000 voters who did not vote in the council elections and these were mainly blank ballots. The TUV, UKIP and PUP did not compete in many constituencies so their voters could not vote for their preferred party. You will notice that the combined TUV-PUP-UKIP vote was 50,000 in the council elections but 100,000 in the Euro elections. The DUP-UUP vote was 31,000 less in the Euro election and when adding in the 10,000 independent unionist council vote that accounts for 41,000 of that extra TUV-UKIP vote in the Euro elections. It appears that 9,000 TUV-UKIP voters in the Euro election did not vote in the council election because they were unwilling to vote for the DUP-UUP candidates. Most of those additional 50,000 TUV-UKIP voters in the Euro election did vote for unionist candidates in the council elections but 9,000 did not. The ~9,000 invalid ballots in the council election were unionist voters and the 9,000 invalid ballots in the Euro election were nationalist voters. If there had been an acceptable independent nationalist candidate in the Euro election (i.e. PBP or dissident republican) then most of that extra 10,000 vote deficit in the nationalist vote in the Euro election would not have occurred. If the TUV, UKIP and PUP had competed in most DEA’s the unionist vote would have been 9,000 higher in the council election.

The Euro election provides an accurate view of the current state of the unionist electorate compared to the 2011 Assembly election. The unionist vote was up 191 compared to 2011 so we are essentially comparing the same voters who voted in 2011. Census statistics and NISRA emigration data indicate that the Protestant voting age population is unchanged since 2011. Half of NI21 voters originated from the unionist parties so the total unionist vote is up ~6,000 which is a 1% increase in turnout. In the Euro vote the TUV-UKIP-PUP vote was up 78,000 compared to 2011. The DUP vote was down 67,273 representing a loss of 1/3 of their 2011 electorate of 198,436. The UUP vote was down 4,093 but these were voter lost to NI21. Overall, the Euro vote was down ~26,000 from the 2011 Assembly election. It appears the nationalist vote was down ~34,000 and the unionist vote up~8,000. Unionist turnout was up 1% and nationalist turnout was down 5%. The official turnout figures are somewhat misleading because they are based only on the 1,250,000 voters who are on the electoral register. There are another 170,000 potential voters who are not on the register. The 635,000 who showed up to vote represent 45% of the whole adult (18+) population. The unionist turnout was approximately 49% and the nationalist turnout approximately 42% after accounting for Alliance, Green and NI21 transfers.

Now I will look at the winners and losers in the election. They are ranked from #1 to #11 based on how well they did in the election compared to 2011.

THE WINNERS

#1 TUV

The TUV are the #1 winner in this election. Their 75,806 Euro vote is 59,326 higher than their 2011 Assembly vote. Their 28,161 council vote is twice their 2011 council vote. Jim Allister far exceeded any predictions for his Euro vote. He was only 13,000 votes behind the UUP when he was eliminated. Another 3,000 UKIP transfers and an increased 1^st preference of 10,000 (either from increased turnout or more 1^st preference from DUP or UUP) and he would have been an elected MEP. My only criticism of the TUV was their failure to contest many DEA’s, including ones with unionist majorities such as Dunsilly, Airport, Glengormley, Cusher, etc. . If they had contested most DEA’s their council total probably would have exceeded 40,000. Analysis by constituency indicates they would elect MLA’s in East Derry, North Antrim, East Antrim and possible East Belfast. Other possibilities are Lagan Valley, South Antrim and Upper Bann. With their 2014 result they can effectively prevent Peter Robinson from granting any concessions to SF.

#2 UKIP

Their Euro vote of 24,584 was over 20,000 higher than their 2011 Assembly vote. At 4% it was twice the general expectation. Their council vote of 9,313was over 3 times their 2011 vote. As with the TUV my only criticism would be that they failed to contest most DEA’s. Although some of their Euro vote originated from the PUP and independents it is likely that their council vote would have doubled if they have contested most DEA’s.

#3 PUP

They had been written off as dead by most commentators. They topped the poll in Court and took a council seat from the DUP in Oldpark. They tripled their 2011 council vote. They galvanized the loyalist community over the Belfast flag controversy. There some pre-election speculation that their open leadership of the flag protests  would lead to a backlash and increased turnout among working class and middle class Catholics that would neutralize their increased vote. The exact opposite occurred. Nationalist voters stayed home, 34,000 of them compared to 2011. Their strategy confirmed that they have nothing to fear from the nationalist voters. My only criticism was their failure to stand a Euro candidate and more council candidates. The Euro candidate would have received at least 12,000 votes. Analysis of constituencies indicates that the DUP will lose an MLA in East Belfast which will be won by either the PUP or TUV. They potentially could win a seat in North Belfast where the combined PUP-TUV vote was 11%.

#4 UUP

The UUP did unexpectedly well considering that prior to the election it was thought that they would lose a significant number of votes to NI21. Their council vote was up slightly though the Euro vote was down slightly compared to 2011. There appears to have been only a 5,000 vote loss to NI21 in the council elections which was made up by an equally large gain from the DUP. Constituency tallies show they are now 7% higher than the DUP in Fermanagh South Tyrone and would take an Assembly seat from the DUP. With a terrible election result by the DUP (see below) Mike Nesbitt is in a good position to negotiate electoral pacts for Westminster. Expect the UUP to agree to step aside in East and North Belfast and possibly North Down with a UUP unity candidate in Fermanagh South Tyrone and South Belfast. The constituency vote indicates that the SF would now lose Fermanagh South Tyrone to a unionist unity candidate due to a further decline in nationalist turnout. The decline in the SDLP vote and total nationalist vote in South Belfast also indicates that a UUP unity candidate would also win in South Belfast. The DUP are already publicly pressing for an electoral pact with the UUP and the UUP can dictate the terms as the DUP desperately want an MP in East Belfast.

Neutral

#5 Green

The Green council vote was unchanged from 2011 but they did pick up key council seats in East Belfast and North Down. Their Euro vote was down from 2009 which was a low turnout election. Since their Euro vote was only 4,000 higher than their council vote they appear to have little appeal outside the few DEA’s they target. They will always have their niche. The influence of their voters is limited by the fact that their voters have the highest rate of non-transfers of any party. This limits the ability of their voters to elect members of other parties that would be friendly to their agenda.

Losers

#6 Alliance

Alliance barely qualifies for the loser category. It is a fact though that their council vote was down 7,000 compared to 2011 and their Euro vote was down 6,443 from the 2011 Assembly election. This is large in percentage terms. This decline is somewhat illusory since the majority of that decline is due to voters who defected to NI21. This is not the entire story. They did well in Belfast but their vote was down significantly in DEA’s outside of Belfast. They lost 20% of their vote in the DEA’s extending from Ballyclare to Carrickfergus to Larne Lough despite no competition from NI21. The vote was down in Castlereagh East and Ards as well. In those areas they lost votes to unionists. The East Belfast vote indicates that they would lose their only MP and with a unionist electoral pact it would definitely be lost.

#7 Sinn Fein

SF have generally been classed as winners in this election but only because of how well they did in the Republic, winning 3 euro seats. However, this article only concerns Northern Ireland. Their council vote declined 12,454 in only 3 years and their Euro vote was 18,411 less than their Assembly vote in 2011. This decline is actually worse because of the context in which it occurred. Census data indicate the nationalist electorate has increased by 24,000 since 2011. With the 2014 turnout the nationalist vote should have increased by 10,000 with most of that (~7,000) going to SF. So their true decline is in the 20,000 to 25,000 range. Less than 3 weeks before the election David Cameron was courting the DUP and at the same time the SF party leader was arrested and imprisoned. With such favouratism  by the British government towards the DUP while at the same time showing obvious contempt for the party leader one would expect that the party activists and republican voters would have been motivated to vote. Losing 10% of your electorate in such circumstances is not a good sign. They lost these voters to apathy since the independent nationalist vote also declined. Constituency vote shows they would lose an MLA seat in Fermanagh South Tyrone to the SDLP and also lose Assembly seats in West Belfast (unionist gain) and East Antrim (unionist gain)

#8 SDLP

The SDLP council vote was down 13,722 compared to 2011 and the Euro vote was down 12,692 compared to the 2011 Assembly vote. With the demographic changes since 2011 one would have expected their vote to be up perhaps 3,000. While their absolute vote decline is similar to SF their percentage decline is greater. The constituency vote indicates they would have lost their MP seat to the DUP in South Belfast even without a unionist pact. They would also lose an Assembly seat in South Belfast though gain one in Fermanagh South Tyrone.

#9 DUP

Despite all the spin by DUP politicians this election was a total disaster for the DUP. Their council vote was down 34,500 compared to 2011. Belfast was particularly bad. In the Court DEA the PUP topped the poll and their top vote getter McCoubry (formerly UDP) had only recently joined the party. His vote total almost equaled the vote of the other 3 DUP candidates combined. If he had not joined the DUP they would have gone from 4 councilors in 2011 to 1 in 2014. They lost a seat to the PUP in Oldpark and the UUP in Titanic. From 15 seats out of 51 in the old Belfast council they declined to 13 out of 60 in the new council. They are now also 7% behind the UUP in Fermanagh South Tyrone. Their council decline would have been greater but the TUV, UKIP and PUP did not contest many DEA’s. Their Euro vote declined 67,223 from their 2011 Assembly vote of 198,436. Losing a third of their voters places them firmly in the column as the worst loser among the major parties. Unlike the nationalist parties, they cannot blame their vote decline on voter apathy since unionist turnout was actually increased in 2014. Almost the entire DUP decline was due to loss of voters to the hard line unionist parties but votes were also lost to the UUP. Apparently the unionist electorate decided to send a message to the DUP for ambiguity regarding the flag protest. The controversy over the OTR’s damaged them as some British politicians claimed that the DUP knew all along about the amnesty plan but that the British government agreed to provide them cover by claiming that it was the UUP that agreed to the amnesty. Of course being in government with SF at Stormont did not help. The DUP have always been good at strategy. Expect the DUP to take a more hard-line approach with SF. The DUP are in an excellent position to do so. Their electorate demands it and they will make no concessions to SF on any matter. They are in a strong position since SF has no options. It is a lose-lose situation for SF. If SF concedes too much to the DUP then even more SF voters stay home or defect to dissident republicans. If SF collapses the Assembly then they will be hurt electorally in the Republic as they would be seen as unstable, unpredictable and unsuitable for any governing coalition. The DUP are certainly aware of the message they have been given by the unionist electorate as 1/3 of unionist voters voted for the TUV and UKIP, parties that believe that SF should not be allowed in any government in Northern Ireland. They will act accordingly.

#10 Conservatives

The Conservatives received their usual less than 1% vote. It is not even clear why they continue to compete. Probably because the national party insist that they do.

#11 NI21

What can I say? The party imploded in 2 days. Only 1 councilor elected. A Euro vote less than 2%. One MLA is involved in a scandal and certain to lose his seat in 2016. The other MLA is certain to lose his seat also as the NI21 vote was less than 1% in South Down. Will this party even exist in one month? Their best option would be to disband and encourage party members to join the Alliance Party or UUP.

Overall it was a major win for hardline unionism. Although the TUV and UKIP currently have only 2 MLA’s at Stormont they can effectively dictate DUP policy in the Executive with SF and they have 100,000 voters to back them up. Nationalism was the big loser with 34,000 voters dropping out of the electorate. The 38.5% nationalist vote in the Euro election is the lowest nationalist percentage in 20 years and turnout was only 42%. Nationalist nonvoters have given their silent approval of the hardline unionist agenda.

 

 

 

 

 

Is there a Middle Ground?

As the dust settles after another round of elections the same old questions, like the “dreary steeples of Fermanagh and Tyrone”, rear their weary heads yet again.

I have long thought that moving beyond the simple sectarian headcount was possible in elections here. Unlikely but possible. I have viewed the possibility passively more as an observer more than a participant. I have witnessed the relentless increase in the nationalist vote over a relatively short period of time along with the inevitability of the decline in the pro union vote. The pro nationalist vote has stood still this time. I am quite relaxed about that. The nationalist vote in Fermanagh stood still for a long time before eventually powering ahead. There is no longer any dispute about which is the stronger voting block in that county. For many years the nationalist vote was kept in check by a three pronged approach. Gerrymandering, enforced emigration through allocation of employment and limitation of voting rights. That day is long gone thanks to the efforts of many others.

This round of elections has thrown up some interesting things. By accident almost, we have an all Ireland element in both the Euros and the local elections. The Sinn Fein performance is, without doubt, very good. In the Euro Elections a nationalist was elected on the first count exceeding the quota in the Northern constituency. They were elected in every other Irish region. Imagine how a certain Revd/ Dr/ Mr  Paisley would have reacted to that back in the day? There is no question that things are moving along at a rate of knots. The SDLP had a good candidate who performed well. He fell at the transfer hurdle.

Within Unionism, Dianne Dodds, who distinguished herself with her sour and nasty reaction at the previous election, limped over the line eventually, Jimbo did very well and will be pleased no doubt. Expect a lurch to his approach on the part of the DUP shortly. As for the UUP? Less said the better.

So the question remains, is there a middle ground?

NI21 imploded as we all know by now. Alliance did what Alliance do, 6 to 7 %. The Greens pretty much held their ground also although the Euro candidate performed poorly. I see no evidence of a resurgent middle ground yet. All I see is a nationalist  electorate reluctant to vote possibly due to a lack of motivation and a unionist electorate motivated by fear and loathing.

 

 

Belfast Council part 4 – The East

And so to Fahas final council analysis. At the end of this post is a summary prediction for the whole of the new Belfast council. I am considering another prediction contest perhaps based upon party percentage performance across all of the new areas prior to the actual poll on May 22. (BD)

This final analysis of Belfast will cover the East Belfast DEA’s of Titanic, Ormiston and Lisnasharragh. These areas have the greatest change in demographic makeup in Belfast, even more so than South Belfast. The following shows the demographics of the wards in the 2011 census in certain age cohorts and the change in the Catholic and Protestant population between the 2001 census and the 2011 census.

What is clear is that there has been a large increase in the Catholic population of all East Belfast wards, especially in Ravenhill, Woodstock, The Mount, Orangefield, Bloomfield and Island (now renamed Connswater). The decline in the Protestant population has been even greater than the increase in the Catholic population, exceeding 20% in some wards. The decline in the Protestant population is greater than the increase in the Catholic population because those with Other religions and None have also increased. Most of the Other and some of the None are ethnic nationals that have settled in East Belfast. The age profile of the wards is consistent with what occurs with “white flight” which has been studied extensively in the USA. Minority groups (native Catholics and foreign immigrants), who are generally young families, move into a majority group area (native Protestants). They usually replace elderly members of the majority group who slowly die off as well as younger members of the majority group who emigrate to the suburbs. You will notice that there are very few Catholics in the over 60 and over 70 age groups. The percentage of Catholics relative to Protestants is much higher in the younger age groups. It is usually in the 25 to 39 age cohort but in middle class areas it may extend to the 49 age cohort. The 0 to4 and 0 to 14 age cohorts have a similar composition to the 25 to 39 age cohort (their parents). In some wards this is seen in all age cohorts among school children and in other wards in mainly shows up in the youngest (0-4) age groups. In the Castlereagh area the wards of Wynchurch, Hillfoot, Cregagh, Downshire and Gilnahirk show similar trends though it is minimal in the wards of Lisnasharragh, Tullycarnet, Upper and Lower Braniel. In another 20 years, East Belfast will have the same demographic makeup that South Belfast had 10 years ago.

The following shows the change in the turnout for the nationalist and unionist parties comparing the 2005 and 2011 district council elections.

All the wards of Castlereagh Central are within the new Belfast Council but only 2 wards from Castlereagh East were transferred to Belfast. The results show:

#1 Turnout declined only slightly between the 2005 and 2011 elections.

#2 Unionist turnout is in the 50% range, except in Pottinger where it is much lower.

#3 Nationalist turnout is low in all DEA’s, except Castlereagh Central.

The change in the party vote between 2005 and 2011 is as follows:

The new DEA’s have changed. Titanic (formerly Pottinger) lost the Ravenhill and Orangefield wards and gained the Sydenham and Connswater (formerly Island) wards. Ormiston (formerly Victoria) lost Sydenham and Island and gained the Castlereagh wards of Gilnahirk, Tullycarnet, Upper Braniel and part of Lower Braniel. The Lisnasharragh DEA bears no resemblance to any current DEA. It includes the Rosetta ward, the Ravenhill and Orangefield wards, most of Castlereagh Central and the Hillfoot ward from Castlereagh West.

The average ward for Belfast is 3535. The total electorate and average ward electorate for each DEA is.

Titanic                21338 (3556)

Ormiston           24843 (3549)

Lisnasharragh   20118 (3353)

The demographics and predicted election results are based on the 2011 turnout.

These are the most likely results, based on the 2011 turnout. Ormiston is the least likely to show any change. In 2014, the Catholic electorate is probably 12%, with another 3% from the Other/None group that could potentially vote for a nationalist candidate. Even though the quota is only 12.5%, a potential electorate of 15% is not enough to elect a nationalist candidate because the nationalist turnout is so low and some of that 15% will vote Alliance. In another 10 years, the situation will be different since the nationalist electorate will have increased to over 20%, which will be enough to elect a SDLP councilor.

In Titanic, because of demographic change, the Catholic electorate is probably 23% in 2014. With another possible 3% to 4% from the Other/None group it would be at least 26%. Since a quota is only 14.3% there should be a nationalist councilor here. The estimated quota will be 1500. The potential nationalist electorate in 2014 is over 7000. There are several reasons it would not occur based on the 2011 vote.

#1 SF only concentrates on their base in Short Strand, even though 2/3 of the nationalist electorate resides outside that area.

#2 SF receive few transfers from other parties, even the SDLP.

#3 The SDLP devotes little effort to this DEA, even though there is a large potential nationalist electorate.

#4 There is 3300 ethnic non nationals old enough to vote in Titanic. Approximately 1800 were on the December 2013 electoral register. 2/3 are from the EU (mainly Polish). There have been several recent high profile attacks on foreign nationals in this area that appear to have originated from the loyalist community .The Alliance Party, SF and the SDLP  have been publicly supportive in condemning these attacks while the PUP, TUV and DUP have been silent. It is not clear if much effort has been made by the SDLP and SF in voter registration and canvassing these potential voters. Ignoring these 3300 potential voters would be a major strategic failure on the part of the SDLP and SF.

#5 Nationalist turnout was only 36% in 2011. It was over 50% in Short Strand so probably less than 30% outside of that area. The nationalist parties generally ignore the 2/3 of the nationalist electorate outside of Short Strand and need to make this a high priority. In 10 years, if the nationalist parties decide to seriously contest this DEA, there would be seats for both SF and the SDLP. At that point, the nationalist electorate will be approximately 34%.

The Lisnasharragh DEA is difficult to project because it is a conglomeration of wards from 4 existing DEA’s. You will notice that there are significant ward average discrepancies between the DEA’s. The average electorate for Lisnasharragh is only 3353, which is 1100 voters short of the average for Belfast. This is another example of the brilliance of the unionist parties and the incompetence of the nationalist parties when it comes to these matters. At no point in the process in which the new wards and new DEA’s were devised did the nationalist parties introduce legislation or insist that the new wards and DEA’s have equal numbers of voters. If Lisnasharragh had an additional 1100 voters (which would have come from Botanic, which has 1500 voters too many and of which these additional voters would have been 2/3 nationalist), then the nationalist electorate would have been 3% higher. Whether an additional 20% of a quota would be enough to elect a SF councilor will not be known until after the election. In 2014, due to demographic growth, the Catholic electorate will be 31%, with an additional potential nationalist vote of 3% from the Other/None group for a total electorate of 34%. 2 quotas would be 28.6%. Since the SDLP is strong in this area, the SDLP vote should far exceed the quota of 14.3%. A very good turnout could see a total nationalist vote of 30%, with the remainder of the nationalist voters voting Alliance or Green. Since the SDLP and Alliance will each elect one, the final seat will probably come down to SF or Alliance. My estimate of the 2014 vote, based on 2010 Westminster tallies, is

SF   0%  SDLP     23.76%  Alliance  23.31%  Green   3.09%    UUP      16.19%   DUP     33.65%

The UUP is slightly above 1 quota and the DUP are above 2 quotas. Clearly there will be 3 non unionist seats. There will definitely be 1 Alliance and 1 SDLP seat. The big unknown is how much of the SDLP vote in 2010 who voted SDLP originated from SF voters who did not have a candidate to vote for. How many SF voters stayed home who would have otherwise voted? Also, the nationalist turnout in the wards that are part of the East Belfast constituency would have had a very low nationalist turnout in both the 2010 Westminster and 2011 council elections. The East Belfast wards contain 16% of the nationalist electorate so will they vote in much higher numbers in 2014? SF has the potential for a seat here if they are willing to put in the effort to increase nationalist turnout and target SDLP transfers.

For all the Belfast DEA’s the party makeup based on the 2011 election would be:

SF    19 SDLP  7  Eirigi   1  Alliance 9  UUP      5  DUP     17     PUP      2

I believe the most likely result in 2014 would be the following:

SF     20  SDLP  8  Eirigi   1  Alliance 8  UUP      4  DUP     17  PUP    2

The demographic changes in Castle since 2011 will probably result in a SDLP gain and UUP loss. If SF and the SDLP seriously contest Titanic then SF will win a seat at the expense of the 2^nd Alliance seat. There would be 29 nationalist councilors and 23 unionist councilors with 8 Alliance so it does not appear that there would be a nationalist majority in the 2014 election. There are possible additional SF seats in Oldpark and Lisnasharragh as well as possible SDLP seats in Court, Balmoral and Botanic but this would require a higher nationalist turnout, as much as 600 additional nationalist voters per DEA, for this to occur. The maximum number of nationalist councilors could be as high as 34 but the unionist candidates in those 5 DEA’s have the advantage based on the 2011 turnout.