Antrim….All change in a generation.

I’ve been busy this week workwise but events have been moving along rapidly. We’ve had Jamie “Biryani” Bryson released on bail after urging other unionists not to accept bail. We’ve had Peter the great of Clontibret fame urging people not to support a local business despite being on a trip to promote local business and we’ve had TV Mike wanting to take over our, and I mean all of our, childrens education. As Jude Collins says, I wouldn’t trust him to mend a puncture. He’s even been on TV defending his disciplinary lack of action against a party member who dismissed a conviction for sexual assault as a “minor” matter. We even had our wonderful “pro consul”, Ms Villiers, on UTV last night making a point about how Michelle Gildernews O’Neill’s dept requested an RAF Chinook and how wonderful this was,  to help distribute animal feed to the snow affected parts of the north. She conveniently forgot to mention this regarding the Irish Air Corps naturally. At least 3 blogs in there! Enough. The antics of the unionists parties have already descended from comedy into tragedy and are now pure farce.

Anyhow, onto Antrim……….

In 1981 there were 15 council seats in Antrim. 11 were shared between the DUP and UUP. The SDLP won 2, Alliance won 1 and the last seat went to an independent republican.

In 2011, with 19 seats on offer, the results were:

DUP: 5,210 (30.6%), 5 councillors
UUP: 3,391 (19.9%), 5 councillors
SF: 2,931 (17.2%), 4 councillors
SDLP: 2,806 (16.5%), 3 councillors
Alliance: 1,919 (11.3%), 2 councillors

The 2011 Census results show us how dramatically the demographics have changed over the past ten years.

2001 Census: 18,691 “Catholic” (38.64%); 26,970 “Protestant” (56.65%); 498 Other (0.45%); 2,055 None (4.25%)

2011 Census: 22.081 “Catholic” (41.20%); 27,401 “Protestant” (50.48%); 219 Other (0.93%); 3,950 None (7.39%)

The combined unionist vote is very close to the protestant census percentage (0.2%) while the combined nationalist vote of 33.7% is considerably lower than the census figure of 41.2%. I believe this is a reflection of the younger age profile among catholics with the associated lower propensity to vote among the young and of course the fact that the under 18’s cannot vote at all. There is considerable evidence of an overflow of Belfast nationalists reflected in the statistics for places like Crumlin below.  Aldergrove is astonishing but perhaps linked to closure of the RAF station there. Ballycraigy, Farranshane and Parkgate are all changing rapidly also. All of these form an arc south and east of the town. Is this the next rapidly changing DEA that invites an ulster unionist capitulation to the DUP?

	Catholic Change	Protestant Change	Catholic % 2011
95AA01 Aldergrove	10.4%	-14.5%	33.4%
95AA02 Balloo	-0.7%	-2.9%	32.9%
95AA03 Ballycraigy	5.4%	-12.7%	10.7%
95AA04 Clady	3.0%	-6.4%	27.6%
95AA05 Cranfield	4.0%	-6.5%	62.3%
95AA06 Crumlin	3.9%	-5.1%	80.8%
95AA07 Drumanaway	1.7%	-4.6%	15.7%
95AA08 Farranshane	4.6%	-10.3%	44.6%
95AA09 Fountain Hill	-1.5%	-4.2%	22.1%
95AA10 Greystone	1.8%	-6.0%	41.3%
95AA11 Massereene	0.0%	-5.9%	38.9%
95AA12 Parkgate	3.0%	-5.1%	7.1%
95AA13 Randalstown	-1.1%	-1.4%	69.0%
95AA14 Shilvodan	0.7%	-2.7%	37.1%
95AA15 Springfarm	-1.8%	-3.0%	41.9%
95AA16 Steeple	1.8%	-7.7%	19.0%
95AA17 Stiles	-2.6%	-2.8%	38.0%
95AA18 Templepatrick	2.0%	-5.4%	14.0%
95AA19 Toome	-4.0%	2.6%	89.7%
Totals	1.6%	-5.5%	38.2%

The Bookies and Me

I have been known to place the odd few pounds or euros on a nag. I’ve even been known to back a winner on occasion. I’m no gambler though and if I do place a bet I do it in the full knowledge that I probably will lose the lot and so what? As long as I get some entertainment from the race and my horse puts in a decent effort.

I’ve also been known to invest a few pounds on the stock markets as you do. Not much but a few pounds in the full knowledge that companies fail or succeed, external factors, management decisions, personalities, actually a million different factors may influence whether I make a few bob or not. I am prudent. I spread my options. Safe options, iffy options, speculative stocks, a little on promising start ups or tech companies maybe.

The safest option was always the banks. I had a penny or two in Bank of Ireland shares back in the day bought at around €10. (I still do, they’ve doubled in value in recent weeks from 8c to 16c!) I’ll not go there. That’s the risk I took and I’m not really any poorer because of it due to me only being a dabbler. Pissed off, yes.

Now imagine if I approached you, presuming that you are a Bank of Ireland customer, and told you that because my investment had, eh, not worked out the way I expected, so please could you visit your atm, while I accompany you with a metaphorical gun to your head, and withdraw a few pounds for my “compensation fund”. I presume you may have an answer for me.

If I returned to the bookie after the race and asked for my stake back on the basis that my horse had “underperformed” I presume he may have an answer for me.

Tonight the people of Cyprus, in similar circumstances, gave an answer.

Would you?

Banbridge Town in the County Down

Banbridge marks the southernmost, unionist majority area, of the North. The 2011 council results were:

Votes by Party:
UUP: 6,167 (33.8%), 7 councillors

Map by Conal Kelly (Ark)

DUP: 5,904 (32.4%), 5 councillors
SDLP: 2,409 (13.2%), 2 councillors
SF: 2,071 (11.4%), 2 councillors
Alliance: 892 (4.9%), 1 councillor
TUV: 458 (2.5%)
Ind: 335 (1.8%)

The comparison totals since 2001 are:

	Total	Catholic	Protestant	Other	None
2001	41,400	13,024	27,337	109	930
2011	48,339	15,479	29,979	361	2,520
2001		31.46%	66.03%	0.26%	2.25%
2011		32.02%	62.02%	0.75%	5.21%

As may be seen above there is little change in the overall percentages except for the increase in the “None” cohort, a 4% drop in protestants and a marginal 0.6% increase in catholics. The interesting stuff, as always, is in the detail (below). Rathfriland is greening quickly with a swing of 14.4%. Dromore, always a unionist town, is surprising with a  10.8% swing. In the town itself it appears that Banbridge West and Ballydown, to the south east, are changing in their demographic makeup. I have included an extra column this time with the total catholic percentage in each Ward.

	Catholic Change	Protestant Change	Catholic % 2011
95FF01 Ballydown	3.7%	-7.8%	30.7%
95FF02 Ballyward	-1.5%	-0.4%	56.5%
95FF03 Banbridge West	2.3%	-6.7%	38.5%
95FF04 Bannside	-0.4%	-2.6%	37.6%
95FF05 Dromore North	0.5%	-4.5%	18.3%
95FF06 Dromore South	3.2%	-8.6%	14.3%
95FF07 Edenderry	0.9%	-4.3%	48.6%
95FF08 Fort	-2.1%	-1.2%	27.5%
95FF09 Gilford	-2.2%	-1.1%	39.3%
95FF10 Gransha	0.9%	-4.2%	13.9%
95FF11 Katesbridge	0.6%	-4.5%	29.8%
95FF12 Lawrencetown	-0.3%	-2.3%	53.6%
95FF13 Loughbrickland	-0.2%	-2.3%	35.0%
95FF14 Quilly	1.5%	-4.8%	14.4%
95FF15 Rathfriland	6.3%	-8.1%	38.5%
95FF16 Seapatrick	0.3%	-2.4%	22.9%
95FF17 The Cut	-2.9%	-2.0%	35.7%
TOTALS	0.6%	-4.0%

 

Lá Fhéile Pádraig

Is mise an Ghaeilge
Is mise do theanga
Is mise do chultúr
D’Úsáid na Filí mé
D’Úsáid na huaisleD’Úsáid na daoine mé
is d’Úsáid na lenaí
Go bródúil a bhí siad
Agus mise faoi réim.

Ach tháinig an strainséir
Chuir sé faoi chois mé
Is rud ní ba mheasa
Nior mhaith le mo chlann mé
Anois t’acuteim lag
Anois t’acuteim tréith
Ach fós táim libh
Is beidh mé go beo.
Tóg suas mo cheann
Cuir áthas ar mo chroí
Labhraígí mé
Ó labhraígí mé!

 

On the Waterside

As requested, below are the percentage changes at ward level in the Derry council area since the 2001 census. Much has been written and said regarding the exodus of protestants from the city side of Derry over the past 40 years. The interesting figures this time are the changes occuring on the east bank of the Foyle or the Waterside as it is known. I have separated these figures out and included actual numbers for ease of interpretation.

I look forward to those of you with better local knowledge filling in some of the details and reasons for this rapid pace of change. Clondermot is the obvious exception to the trend below and I am curious as to what’s happening in Ebrington.  I presume the closure of the British Army base there explains the startling 25% swing?

Waterside	C	P
95MM01 Altnagelvin	2.5%	-4.7%
95MM07 Caw	1.4%	-3.5%
95MM08 Clondermot	-2.1%	0.7%
95MM14 Ebrington	13.6%	-11.5%
95MM19 Kilfennan	5.6%	-8.1%
95MM20 Lisnagelvin	3.2%	-5.7%
95MM29 Victoria	5.1%	-7.7%
Percentage (Change)	4.17%	-5.78%
Numbers (Change)	1,209	-1,797
Total Numbers	9,924	11,903

The full figures are below and reveal a similar trend  to other constituencies. A slight fall in Catholic numbers in what are overwhelmingly nationalist wards and an increased greening of mixed and mostly unionist wards. In percentage terms there is a very marginal decrease in protestant numbers and no change in catholic numbers. The actual figures are: Catholic:80,340 (+1,157)  Protestant:23,266 (-1,113).

95MM01 Altnagelvin	2.5%	-4.7%
95MM02 Ballynashallog	-2.8%	2.3%
95MM03 Banagher	-1.0%	-0.9%
95MM04 Beechwood	-1.7%	0.4%
95MM05 Brandywell	-4.3%	3.7%
95MM06 Carn Hill	-4.5%	3.8%
95MM07 Caw	1.4%	-3.5%
95MM08 Clondermot	-2.1%	0.7%
95MM09 Claudy	1.0%	-2.1%
95MM10 Creggan Central	-2.8%	2.4%
95MM11 Creggan South	-1.4%	1.1%
95MM12 Crevagh	0.7%	-1.2%
95MM13 Culmore	-0.7%	0.3%
95MM14 Ebrington	13.6%	-11.5%
95MM15 Eglinton	5.4%	-7.1%
95MM16 Enagh	3.9%	-7.5%
95MM17 Foyle Springs	-2.4%	1.3%
95MM18 Holly Mount	-7.3%	5.7%
95MM19 Kilfennan	5.6%	-8.1%
95MM20 Lisnagelvin	3.2%	-5.7%
95MM21 New Buildings	5.8%	-9.6%
95MM22 Pennyburn	-2.0%	1.0%
95MM23 Rosemount	-5.3%	2.8%
95MM24 Shantallow East	-0.3%	0.1%
95MM25 Shantallow West	-1.3%	0.8%
95MM26 Springtown	0.1%	0.1%
95MM27 Strand	-8.9%	4.1%
95MM28 The Diamond	0.1%	-2.2%
95MM29 Victoria	5.1%	-7.7%
95MM30 Westland	-3.7%	2.1%
Totals	0%	-1%

The Bible Belt…. part 2.

Ballymoney. Part two of the bible belt series Ladies and Gents.

Below are the statistical changes by ward for Ballymoney. Does anyone know what is happening in Killoquin? North and south? Has anyone noticed yet that the increase in the “none” and “other” allocation seems to balance with the reduction in the “unionist” percentage while the “catholic” percentages steadily increase?

Overall there is little change here other than a 3.5 % swing in the green direction. The balance is 63%/ 32% Protestants/ Catholics in 2011 from 66%/ 31% in 2001.

Courtesy of An Sionnach Fionn.

2011 Council results were: (See below)

DUP: 2,069 (42.3%), 3 seats
SF: 1,664 (34.0%), 2 seats
TUV: 440 (9.0%), 1 seat
SDLP: 373 (7.6%)
UUP: 345 (7.1%)

NB* Correction!

The full council figures are:
8 DUP
3 SF
2 UUP
1 TUV
1 SDLP
1 Independent.

An over representation for nationalists perhaps?

	Catholic Change	Protestant Change
95EE01 Ballyhoe and Corkey	-1.2%	0.2%
95EE02 Benvardin	0.6%	-5.8%
95EE03 Carnany	-0.6%	-2.3%
95EE04 Clogh Mills	-2.7%	0.0%
95EE05 Dervock	3.2%	-6.2%
95EE06 Dunloy	-2.5%	1.5%
95EE07 Fairhill	-1.1%	-3.1%
95EE08 Glebe	0.8%	-4.7%
95EE09 Killoquin Lower	-2.9%	-1.0%
95EE10 Killoquin Upper	3.3%	-5.4%
95EE11 Knockaholet	0.0%	-2.7%
95EE12 Newhill	1.1%	-4.3%
95EE13 Route	-1.6%	-2.5%
95EE14 Seacon	3.0%	-7.6%
95EE15 Stranocum	4.0%	-8.3%
95EE16 The Vow	-1.8%	-1.7%
Total	0.1%	-3.4%

The Pub Quiz Question.

I have been asked to partake in a forthcoming Pub Quiz for an excellent cause naturally you understand. The fact that it is in a pub is purely incidental.

Why my particular skills are in demand is a mystery to me as I tend to weigh up the why’s, wherefore’s. how’s, if’s, but’s and maybe’s to an annoying degree while waiting for my pint to settle. It has been said that I am more concerned with accuracy than speed. I also tend to seek consensus rather than impose my invariably correct answers on the team.  I always considered that a good thing! Not in a pub quiz apparently.

Anyhow, the team may consist of an assortment of fellow bloggers or so I am told and I have been given the task of choosing a name. Hmmmmm.

I refuse to go with the initial suggestion of “Not the Sluggers”.

Help?

Coleraine…. Bucking the Trend

I know little about this constituency. The figures show that of 22 wards, catholic percentages have declined in 9 of them, protestants have declined in 20. Overall percentage changes are that catholics are up 0.6%, protestants down by 4%. Not a huge change over ten years and no dramatic swings except perhaps, Central and Macosquin.

Courtesy of Ark website

The Recent Council election results are as follows:

2011: DUP 9, UUP 5, SDLP 3, Alliance 2, Ind 2, SF 1
2005: DUP 9, UUP 8, SDLP 3, SF 1, Ind 1
2001: UUP 10, DUP 7, SDLP 4, Ind 1
1997: UUP 10, DUP 5, SDLP 3, Alliance 3, Ind 1
1993: UUP 12, DUP 5, SDLP 3, Alliance 2

I thought it may be useful to show full percentage change figures for this DEA below:

The thought occurred to me that Coleraine is one of the places where unionists are concentrating as their numbers dwindle in surrounding areas. Certainly the numbers here don’t reflect the trends in the North as a whole. Nevertheless, Coleraine is greening, just not quite as fast as other places.

	Catholic % 2001	Catholic % 2011	Difference		Protestant % 2001	Protestant % 2011	Difference
95JJ01 Agivey	24.0%	23.5%	-0.5%		73.4%	71.7%	-1.7%
95JJ02 Atlantic	30.2%	30.9%	0.7%		64.5%	61.1%	-3.3%
95JJ03 Ballysally	16.6%	13.0%	-3.6%		78.1%	76.4%	-1.7%
95JJ04 Castlerock	18.0%	16.9%	-1.1%		79.0%	77.7%	-1.3%
95JJ05 Central	22.5%	28.3%	5.8%		74.4%	63.5%	-10.9%
95JJ06 Churchland	38.1%	40.5%	2.4%		59.4%	52.6%	-6.8%
95JJ07 Cross Glebe	24.8%	22.0%	-2.8%		72.2%	71.0%	-1.2%
95JJ08 Dundooan	18.9%	24.2%	5.3%		77.7%	68.2%	-9.6%
95JJ09 Dunluce	4.8%	6.1%	1.2%		93.3%	89.2%	-4.1%
95JJ10 Garvagh	45.6%	47.3%	1.7%		53.6%	49.9%	-3.7%
95JJ11 Hopefield	20.3%	22.2%	1.9%		73.9%	70.3%	-3.6%
95JJ12 Kilrea	65.4%	67.1%	1.7%		33.8%	29.8%	-4.0%
95JJ13 Knocklynn	16.0%	18.2%	2.3%		78.9%	74.1%	-4.8%
95JJ14 Macosquin	9.7%	11.0%	1.3%		88.4%	84.3%	-4.1%
95JJ15 Mount Sandel	26.0%	31.4%	5.4%		69.8%	61.4%	-8.4%
95JJ16 Portstewart	38.4%	32.4%	-6.0%		57.4%	58.1%	0.8%
95JJ17 Ringsend	51.7%	49.8%	-1.9%		47.4%	46.2%	-1.2%
95JJ18 Royal Portrush	27.9%	27.8%	-0.1%		67.1%	63.1%	-3.9%
95JJ19 Strand	43.8%	40.2%	-3.6%		53.8%	54.0%	0.2%
95JJ20 The Cuts	19.5%	21.6%	2.1%		77.1%	72.5%	-4.6%
95JJ21 University	23.6%	24.2%	0.7%		72.9%	66.2%	-6.8%
95JJ22 Waterside	25.3%	24.7%	-0.7%		70.1%	66.8%	-3.3%
Totals	27.8%	28.3%	0.6%		68.9%	64.9%	-4.0%

My Lovely Car….

Gregory’s new runabout

No, I’m not doing advertising just yet on this blog. I’m not even buying one of these, but for some reason certain Unionist politicians have their y-fronts in a knot over a new runabout on the market. I am sure the South Korean makers had this corner of the world to the forefront of their minds when dreaming up the name for their latest engineering triumph.

Those of you with a business background will be aware of the perils of cultural sensitivities.

From the Newsletter:

“Korean car maker Kia faced calls from MPs to rebrand its latest model because it shares its name with the Provisional IRA.

Unionist MPs said the Kia Provo should be renamed and given a title which is “not associated with terror and mayhem”.

The Democratic Unionist Party’s Gregory Campbell (East Londonderry) and William McCrea (South Antrim) claimed the name had caused “deep offence”.

The Provo concept car was unveiled at the Geneva motor show, with Kia claiming the “sleek, low, yet muscular coupe-style” design was “meant to be cheeky and cheerful in its compactness and to hint at the fun awaiting on the open road”.”

How dare they not have taken Gregory and Willie’s opinions on board ?

A Sad Song for Sunday

A Cork girl singing a Kerry lament by Sigerson Clifford about lost love, rebellion, freedom, emigration and a return to better times. Brilliantly.