Schools and the Census. A guest post by Faha

There has been extensive analysis and speculation regarding the 2011 census results. There has also been some criticism of those who have attempted to correlate the religious community background data with politics. In Northern Ireland religious community background is almost 100% correlated with political party preference. The recent Spotlight poll questioned over 1,000 residents of Northern Ireland on numerous political issues and analyzed the responses by age, gender, level of education, religious community background and other variables. There were 368 individual from the Protestant community background who were willing to give their 1^st preference party vote and only 4 choose a nationalist party (all SDLP). Of the 328 individuals from the Catholic community background who were willing to give their 1^st party preference only 3 choose a unionist party. Cross community voting preference is only 1%. In view of these findings, the census provides the most reliable data when attempting to determine current and future election results within a constituency.

The only difficulty in using the census data, especially with religious community background, is that the data is incomplete. In the 2001 census, there were 80,670 people who did not answer the question on religion, 4.8% of the population. Of that 4.8%, 3.6% did not answer any part of the question, 0.6% checked off the box indicating they had a religion but did not identify the religion, and 0.6% indicated their religion was “None” but did not indicate whether they were raised in a religion. The census office estimated that there were an additional 81,627 people who did not return census forms. The census office did a follow up survey of 10,000 households to confirm the accuracy of the census. Approximately 500 households (~2,000 people ) would have been people who never responded to the initial census and the data from those 2,000 people was used to extrapolate to the entire estimated 81,627 who never returned census forms. Thus, there was no religion background data for over 9% of the population.

Fortunately, there are other sources of religion data which are more complete than the census. This would be the annual school census, which includes all children enrolled in any school in Northern Ireland. The school census for 2001 was completed in October 2001, 6 months after the 2001 census. The data for primary school children is the most accurate to use in comparison with the 2001 census, since primary school attendance is compulsory. The only students missing from the primary school data are students in special schools and this data was included in later years and is similar to data for other primary schools. The data that is available covers 98% of primary school age children. The religion data for primary school students in 2001 showed the following:

Catholic    Protestant   NonChristian           None-Not Stated   Total

85,048          75,644          684                    9,177                  170,553

For the data from the 2001 census I used the religious information for the 6 to 11 age cohort (they would be age 6 ½  to 11 ½ at the time of the school census ) and the majority of the age 5 cohort . I also did an alternative analysis with the 6 to 11 age cohort with the majority of the age 12 cohort instead of age 5 though it differs slightly since religion data changes little from one age cohort to the next.

Catholic    Protestant   NonChristian   None-Not Stated   Total

84,575          76,911         567               8,500                170,553

+473              -1,267            117               677

The school census records more Catholics, Non Christian and None and fewer Protestants than the 2001 census. Most of the excess None are in integrated schools and state schools. They are probably of secular background (i.e.: the parents have a tenuous religious connection and put down that religion for themselves and their children in the census but did not wish the child to be considered as having a religion for school purposes).  How to analyze these 677? I did so based on where they attended school and almost 90% would be Protestant. It could also be argued that they should be 75% Protestant and 25% Catholic based on the religion brought up in data ( for the None group) in the census. It could also be argued that some or many are of Catholic background and the parents do not wish to reveal their Catholic background where they would be in a small minority in an overwhelmingly Protestant school. The adjusted data, removing the excess None, shows the following difference compared to the 2001 census.

Catholic    Protestant   NonChristian   None-Not Stated

554                 -674             120                    0

For the secondary school data the school census data is:

Catholic    Protestant   NonChristian   None-Not Stated   Total

80,034          68,015           386               7,068                155,503

For the census I used the age 12 to 16 cohorts and some of the age 17 cohort.

Catholic    Protestant   NonChristian   None-Not Stated   Total

79,358            70,260           452           5,434                155,503

The difference between the school census and 2001 census is:

Catholic    Protestant   NonChristian   None-Not Stated

+676             -2,245           -66                    +1,634

After adjusting for the excess None (assuming mainly Protestant).

Catholic    Protestant   NonChristian

+872             -811               -62

The 872 extra Catholics in the secondary school census compared to only 554 in the primary school census may be due to more Catholics undercounted in secondary school. It is also possible that it is due to another factor. Some older students drop out of secondary school, so the school census does not record the school dropouts. If there is a higher dropout rate among Protestant students compared to Catholic students then this could account for the higher number of Catholics compared to the primary school census (where school attendance is compulsory). Even if the true number similar the primary school number (554) the secondary school census also confirms an undercount of the Catholic school age population.

It appears that the primary school and secondary school census enumerates a Catholic undercount compared to the 2001 census. This number would range from 1,100 (assuming a higher dropout rate in secondary school for Protestant students) to 1,426 (assuming no differential in dropout rate in secondary school). Of course, all these students have younger siblings who are not yet in school and older siblings who have already finished school. They also have parents, grandparents, cousins, uncles and aunts who are not in school. Since the school census only records 20% of the population, the undercount of the Catholic population for all of Northern Ireland would be 5 times as high-at least 5,500. The lowest estimate would be 4,000, if I used the 6 to 11 age cohort and some of the age 12 cohort and extrapolated the undercount only using the primary school census. The highest underestimate would be 10,000. The 10,000 estimate would come from using the higher secondary school number (872 for Catholics) and assuming that 40% of the excess None are of Catholic origin. I tend to prefer a lower number, perhaps 5,000.

The 2001 school census confirms a small undercount of Catholics in the 2001 census. Why did the 2001 census record fewer Catholics than the school census? There were 80,670 people that did not record their religion on the census form. The census office used other markers (religion of other household members, age and knowledge of the Irish language) to estimate the religion of these 80,670. They found that their religion would be no different than the percentages of those who did answer the religion question. Those census respondents who did not answer the religion question are not the source of any discrepancy. There were an estimated 81,627 people who did not return census forms. The data for these people was estimated from households in the follow up census survey who were found to have been non respondents in the original census. This is where the source of error probably originated. The census office extrapolated from this sample (up to 2,000 people) to the entire 81,627. The census office found that the non-responders were 47.1% Catholic, 31.8% Protestant and 20.6% None or refused to reveal their religion (the latter much higher than the 13% in the census). It is clear that the non-responders were more likely to be Catholic and less likely to be Protestant than those who responded to the census (the Protestant percentage was over 50% in the census). Of course, many non-respondents did so simply because they could not be bothered to fill out the initial census form. However, the higher Catholic percentage and the lower Protestant percentage in the non-responders indicate that there was small Catholic boycott in the 2001 census.  Of course, this sample of non-responders only includes those who were willing to cooperate with the census takers who came to their home. Those who refused to cooperate likely included a disproportionate number of people who were unwilling to cooperate with the census takers for political reasons. These people would include dissident republicans and their sympathizers. The census office is unable to account for those who refuse to cooperate and this would affect their extrapolation of the non-responder data to all the non-responders. Another possible source of error is the large percentage of those unwilling to reveal their religion to the census workers in those non-respondents in the follow up census. The census office analyzed that 20.6% of None and Not Stated as if they were similar to the 13% of None and Not Stated in the census. They assumed that 13% were actually None and only 7.6% Not Stated. This would lead to an overestimate of the None and Protestant section of these people since the None group is 54% of Protestant background, 27% of No religious background and only 17% of Catholic background. If those who refused to reveal their religion where instead analyzed according to the percentages of those who did reveal their religion it would result in 3,000 more Catholics and 1,500 fewer Protestant and 1,500 fewer None in the final tally of the 81,607.

The 2001 school census confirms a small undercount of the Catholic population in the 2001 census. It is approximately in the range of 5,000 people, though it could be higher. This 5,000 undercount is only 0.3% of the entire population. The school census also confirms that the 2001 census has very accurate data for the religious background of the entire Northern Ireland population. The age religion data for the 2011 census will be released later this year. It will be possible to compare the 2011 school census data with the data from the census. There maym or may not, be an undercount or overcount of the Catholic population.

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The Union is Safe?

“The Union is safe”

How many times have you heard that particular mantra recently?

A few years ago I had a very interesting conversation with a colleague who was the number 1 in our large multinational company on the health and safety front. He was, and still is, a sound Man. His words, over a few pints away from the office were very prophetic. I, being me, had a rant about the increased restrictions being imposed upon employees due to the fears imposed by H&S dictats. He agreed. He also predicted something and bear in mind that this was a few years ago.

He predicted that risk aversion would lead to inertia. People would simply not take risks. He actually predicted that the safe option would become the norm and as a result companies would suffer. He also predicted that it would become normal for people to lie purely to protect themselves. In essence they would deny principle to enhance personal protection. Does the “Cover your ass” e-mail ring any bells?

Think about that.

“The Union is safe”

It is usually uttered by unionist politicians or journalists prior to a speech about how nationalists are converting en mass to a pro union position on the “constitutionalist question”. Apparently, according to unionists, the future of the north eastern six counties will, after all, be decided by those of a nationalist background according to Peter Robinson today. Well blow me down with a big feather duster. Perhaps the point of this little blog has some relevance after all.

Of course Peter has known for some time that the premise of this blog and others is important. Hence the pathetic outreach nonsense. Today we had the entirely predictable nonsense where loyalists totally ignored the parades commission determination not to play provocative songs outside a place of catholic worship. Again. Is anyone here surprised?

As usual unionism is still fighting the battles of years past. Things have moved on and bypassed them yet again. I have thought about blogging on the glorification of the UVF and comparing that with the insistence upon conceptions such as “surrender” and their definition of the term “terrorism”. The comparisons with their horror at the thought of an IRA shrine at Long Kesh.  That would be too simple to be honest. I have simply given up on mainstream unionism being capable of entering or engaging in a grown up conversation about our future. I emphasise the word “our”. (I absolutely do not include individual unionist people in that, particularly my friends who read and sometimes comment here)

I think it is time to move on beyond this and there have been some very interesting blogs on other sites along these lines recently. Sinn Fein have being making noises about an All Ireland referendum. Hmmm. My opinion is that the mechanics need to be fleshed out first. That is starting to happen and it is very interesting

I’m well on for that and I propose to blog tomorrow on details. Not my details but those proposed  by others who, like me, are not party political, but concerned for what will become of us all in coming days.

My friend, and he is still a friend, was right. The difference is I and others have nothing to fear. Unlike professional politicians we are free to say what we think and explore the possibilities.

The Union as unionists understand it is no more. It is time for their politicians to stop lying to them and it is time for engagement. That is why the BCC flag issue was such a shock to their system. I have been accused on occasion of being a bit of a lecturer. If I am I apologise but am I wrong?

A few words on History

Hi all,

I haven’t stopped blogging on the stats. They are my major area of interest and, due to the establishment of the northern six county statelet being founded upon that basis those stats will continue to be my focus until they are irrelevant. Hopefully soon!  I recently read Mrs Bangordub’s A level history papers from a considerable time ago. They got me thinking.

I thought it may be interesting in the meantime to blog on a recurring theme which is, the unerring ability of Unionists to shoot themselves in the foot on the PR front, time and time again.

There are many examples of this throughout the short history of the North since partition. I believe this is best examined from three perspectives:

1. The Internal View.

Nationalists in Northern Ireland reacted to partition not with violence but primarily by keeping their heads down and their powder dry. Despite the sectarian rhetoric of those like Craigavon and Brookborough they stuck to basic principles such as equality and fairness. It got them absolutely nowhere. The Border campaign of the 1950’s was a southern initiative which achieved little other than a few martyrs. The behaviour, words and actions of southern politicians was frankly disgraceful. It reinforced the sense of abandonment and alienation felt by many north of the border. When those same issues came to a boil in the 1960’s it led to the civil rights movement and consequently the series of events that led to the GFA.

Unionism, on the other hand, resisted any change whatsoever. When presented with the opportunity to extend a hand of partnership by Terence O’Neill, rejected it. Unionists chose the uncompromising road exemplified by the Ian Paisley of those days. It chose the rhetoric of “no surrender” and “not an inch”. It ended up losing many miles both in PR terms and in actual political power terms. Stormont, the “Protestant parliament for a protestant people was prorogued” That was the end of days but nobody told them. They still fly the flag of the old stormont parliament believing it to be a flag of Ulster. Nobody has told them the truth yet.

The External view.

Simple this in my view. Whatever side of the fence you are on you are viewed as Irish by others if you are north of the , eh, border. Ironic in a way as I am always intrigued by the comments by those of a unionist persuasion that various things are  “Irish”. The thought occurs to me as to how the “british” in Ireland view themselves. The English certainly them as Irish regardless. Personally I believe everyone has a right to view their own nationality in their own terms but, for me, it must be difficult to be viewed in seperate terms by those whom you most wish to be accepted by. The relevant term, I believe, is called cognative dissonance. Hence the bowler hats and pin striped suits so beloved of certain unionists. Hence the recent opportunistic alliances with extreme right wing British political parties.

The Southern View.

I have mentioned this above but I will say it again. We “Free Staters” have a lot to answer for. My Dad was from Armagh. My Mum was from Tipperary. They disagreed on many things but they agreed on one. Post 1921 there was a disconnect with the Nationalist people in the northern six counties. That was an abandonment of a democratic vote and a capitulation to the threat of force, specifically by the UVF. That same UVF had a commemoration this weekend in Belfast. An opportunity missed, yet again, for loyalists to engage and make themselves relevant. They banned and expelled journalists from covering the events. Southerners see Holy Cross, they see the triumphalist marches, they see the coat trailing and they see the bigotry. If you really want southerners to have nothing to do with you as unionists, it is working. It is also having the same effect on the rest of the world including decent British people.

So. In my view the way forward is simple. I, as a republican, would love to see the British Unionist minority in the north join me for a pint and a chat about the way forward. Is that a mad request?

The Top Ten !

Hello all, I am catching up with some statistics here which were released at the end of March by NISRA.

They are the latest quarterly Births and Deaths covering the period Quarter 4 2012.

I have sorted both sets into the top and bottom ten for each. The NI average figures are below the charts. Interestingly, Fermanagh was bang on the NI average for both sets of figures. Can anyone spot a pattern here?

Top Ten Births
LGD	Population	Births per 1K
Dungannon	58,600	16.7
Cookstown	37,100	15.9
Newry & Mourne	100,900	15.9
Craigavon	94,800	15.2
Belfast	267,600	15.2
Banbridge	48,400	14.9
Ballymoney	30,800	14.6
Derry	109,900	14.3
Down	71,100	14.2
Limavady	33,900	14.0
Lowest Ten Births
LGD	Population	Births per 1K
Moyle	17,000	13.2
Strabane	40,200	12.2
Ballymena	63,800	12.2
Castlereagh	67,300	11.6
Coleraine	56,700	11.6
Omagh	53,300	11.6
North Down	80,200	11.1
Ards	78,300	11.0
Larne	31,600	10.4
Carrickfergus	40,100	7.6
NI AVERAGE	1806900	13.6

Top Ten Deaths
LGD	Population	Deaths per 1K
Castlereagh	67,300	9.8
Belfast	267,600	9.7
North Down	80,200	9.6
Ards	78,300	9.1
Ballymena	63,800	9.1
Moyle	17,000	8.9
Newtownabbey	83,700	8.7
Carrickfergus	40,100	8.6
Coleraine	56,700	8.5
Antrim	54,500	8.4
Lowest Ten Deaths
LGD	Population	Deaths per 1K
Limavady	33,900	7.4
Derry	109,900	7.3
Cookstown	37,100	7.2
Ballymoney	30,800	7.1
Newry & Mourne	100,900	6.9
Dungannon	58,600	6.9
Armagh	60,100	6.8
Magherafelt	45,100	5.9
Omagh	53,300	5.5
Strabane	40,200	5.4
NI AVERAGE	1,806,900	8.1

 

Obituary The Grocers Daughter

Margaret Thatcher is dead.

I never thought I would ever write this or think, or say, ill of those who have passed from this world. This world is a better place for the passing of one of the most divisive and awful people I have ever had the misfortune to be a contemporary of.

The Grocers daughter managed to divide the people of England. She did what the ruling classes of England have always done. She sowed division in order to exercise authority. What she did in Ireland was merely an extension of the same policy. She had no idea of what to do here. She thought the North was “as British as Finchley”. Her obituary, for me, will always be three things. That ignorant and insulting comment, her utterly inhumane handling of the hunger strikes, and her “out, out, out” reaction to the new Ireland forum.

She was a friend of apartheid South Africa, she was a friend of General Pinochet in Chile, she was a friend of right wing nutjobs the world over. She had no time for Europeans, She “handbagged” them so it is said. That is a kind phrase.

As Education secretary she  took free milk from schoolkids, as prime minister she took employment from her people, notably the miners. She also took their self respect, their right to demonstrate and then, their welfare state from beneath their feet. She criminalised the people she sought to destroy and she engaged the mass media in that enterprise. The same media that have since been exposed as complicit in criminal enterprises of their own.

She believed in “Privatisation”. She called the trade unions “the enemy within” She sold off pretty much every state owned asset there was. Gas, Electricity, Rail, Telecoms. If you want to know the results of that just ask any current customer.

She led the UK into a war over a colony. The Malvinas. That war was nothing to do with the people living there, or the people who had been expelled from living there in 1820. It was to do with getting her re-elected. It worked. At the cost of many lives, British and Argentinian.

Margaret Thatcher was a stubborn woman. That I can admire. She was also incredibly blinkered and incredibly destructive and incredibly downright nasty. She was also simply ignorant.

I detested her. I don’t mourn her passing and I dislike her all the more for making me feel that way.

Castle Greyskull (an Caisleán Riabhach)

Castlereagh council area is a kind of strange, makeyuppy area South of Belfast sort of centred around Carryduff and Dundonald. It has no natural centre and is half in and half out of Belfast. It is essentially a collection of suburbs and housing estates.

It is also, historically, a DUP and Unionist stronghold.

The 2011 election saw the political landscape at Castlereagh change dramatically. The DUP lost overall control of the council losing two council seats, one in Central and one in the East. The UUP also lost their sole representative in East. The Alliance party gained one in East and Central, while the Green party gained in East. There were no changes in the West or South areas, there was much speculation that demographic change would deliver a Sinn Féin a seat in South, however this didn’t happen. The SDLP had the sixth placed runner up, narrowly beaten by the UUP for the fifth seat.

The 2011 results and map were:

DUP: 10,390 (42.6%), 11 councillors

Courtesy of Conall Kelly – Ark

Alliance: 6,142 (25.2%), 6 councillors
UUP: 2,717 (11.2%), 3 councillors
SDLP: 2,681 (11.0%), 2 councillors
SF: 735 (3.0%)
Green: 716 (2.9%), 1 councillor

And so to the Census, figures below as always.

Every single ward saw a decrease in the protestant and an increase in the catholic percentage. Newtownbreda, Knockbracken, Hillfoot and Carryduff have witnessed huge swings. The overall swing was 13% with 10 of the 23 wards exceeding this.

This particular council has a notorious and unenviable reputation for refusing to share power with non unionists (ie: fenians), less than open council dealings and indeed, I haven’t even mentioned Iris Robinson and her “fundraising” for local entrepreneurs or her husband and his pure brilliance at land speculation.

Oh dear. I think I just did, sorry.

	Catholic Change 2011	Protestant Change 2011	Swing	Catholic % 2011
95II01 Ballyhanwood	1.5%	-6.7%	8.2%	4.8%
95II02 Beechill	4.1%	-7.4%	11.5%	33.8%
95II03 Cairnshill	3.7%	-7.1%	10.9%	46.4%
95II04 Carrowreagh	2.2%	-8.4%	10.7%	4.5%
95II05 Carryduff East	4.0%	-7.7%	11.7%	48.8%
95II06 Carryduff West	5.2%	-9.4%	14.6%	48.2%
95II07 Cregagh	3.5%	-11.3%	14.8%	8.5%
95II08 Downshire	6.0%	-12.2%	18.1%	10.8%
95II09 Dundonald	3.5%	-8.9%	12.4%	8.7%
95II10 Enler	2.3%	-9.5%	11.8%	3.4%
95II11 Galwally	1.0%	-6.1%	7.1%	46.9%
95II12 Gilnahirk	3.9%	-8.3%	12.2%	9.3%
95II13 Graham’s Bridge	4.7%	-13.6%	18.3%	6.7%
95II14 Hillfoot	8.0%	-11.2%	19.2%	28.6%
95II15 Knockbracken	7.8%	-11.3%	19.1%	47.0%
95II16 Lisnasharragh	3.1%	-8.8%	11.9%	5.3%
95II17 Lower Braniel	1.2%	-6.5%	7.7%	4.8%
95II18 Minnowburn	4.3%	-8.8%	13.1%	7.9%
95II19 Moneyreagh	1.1%	-3.6%	4.7%	12.1%
95II20 Newtownbreda	8.8%	-15.5%	24.4%	39.5%
95II21 Tullycarnet	1.0%	-7.7%	8.7%	3.6%
95II22 Upper Braniel	3.8%	-10.2%	14.0%	6.4%
95II23 Wynchurch	4.1%	-9.7%	13.9%	45.2%
TOTALS	3.9%	-9.1%	13.0%

 

DUP Nua

As referred to in the previous post by Hoboroad, rumours are circulating that Peter Robinson may be about to step down as leader of the DUP. I agree with Sammy McNally’s observation that young Gavin Robinson has the makings of a future leader but I thought it would be fun to get your opinions in the meantime.

I’ve included some less than serious contenders naturally. Your comments are welcome as always.

It appears Edwin Poots has already launched his campaign:

http://www.irishtimes.com/news/poots-causes-outrage-over-easter-rising-dig-1.1344587