The Post Mortem- by Faha

Now that the election is over, it is time for the post-election analysis to begin. Much of the mainstream media and even some of the political parties have concentrated on comparing the 2014 Euro election with the 2009 election. I believe a more valid comparison would be to compare the 2014 party vote totals in the 2014 Euro election with the 2011 Assembly party vote totals. The 2014 council elections can also be easily compared with the 2011 council elections. These were the results for the district council elections in 2011 and 2014.

2014 Council	Total	2011	Change
SF	151258	163712	-12454	258624	-26767
SDLP	85603	99325	-13722
Nationalist	21763	22354	-591
Alliance	41803	48859	-7056	48157	-7056
Green	6354	6317	37
NI21	11495	0	11495
UUP	101375	100643	732		1056
DUP	144886	179436	-34550	309625	-10439
TUV	28161	13079	15082
PUP	12553	3858	8695
UKIP	9313	2550	6763
Unionist	10810	19177	-8367
Conservative	2527	1321	1206
Total	627901	660631	-32730

 

SF	24.09%	24.78%	-0.69%	41.19%	Nationalist	-2.01%
SDLP	13.63%	15.03%	-1.40%
Nationalist	3.47%	3.38%	0.08%
Alliance	6.66%	7.40%	-0.74%	7.67%	Alliance-Green	-0.68%
Green	1.01%	0.96%	0.06%
NI21	1.83%	0.00%	1.83%	51.14%	Unionist-NI21	2.69%
UUP	16.15%	15.23%	0.91%	49.31%	Unionist	0.86%
DUP	23.07%	27.16%	-4.09%
TUV	4.48%	1.98%	2.51%
PUP	2.00%	0.58%	1.42%
UKIP	1.48%	0.39%	1.10%
Unionist	1.72%	2.90%	-1.18%
Conservative	0.40%	0.20%	0.20%

 

These were the results for the 2014 Euro elections and comparing those results with the 2011 Assembly elections.

	Euro 2014	Assembly 2011	Change
SF	159813	178224	-18411	241407	-44479
SDLP	81594	94286	-12692
Nationalist	0	13376	-13376
Alliance	44432	50875	-6443	55030	-1876
Green	10598	6031	4567
NI21	10553	0	10553		10744
UUP	83438	87531	-4093		191
DUP	131163	198436	-67273	319135
TUV	75806	16480	59326
PUP	0	1493	-1493
UKIP	24584	4152	20432
Unionist	0	10852	-10852
Conservative	4144	0	4144
Total	626125	661736	-35611

 

 

SF	25.52%	26.93%	-1.41%	38.56%	Nationalist	-4.65%
SDLP	13.03%	14.25%	-1.22%
Nationalist	0.00%	2.02%	-2.02%
Alliance	7.10%	7.69%	-0.59%	8.79%	Alliance-Green	0.19%
Green	1.69%	0.91%	0.78%
NI21	1.69%	0.00%	1.69%	52.66%	Unionist-NI21	4.46%
UUP	13.33%	13.23%	0.10%	50.97%	Unionist	2.77%
DUP	20.95%	29.99%	-9.04%
TUV	12.11%	2.49%	9.62%
PUP	0.00%	0.23%	-0.23%
UKIP	3.93%	0.63%	3.30%
Unionist	0.00%	1.64%	-1.64%
Conservative	0.66%	0.00%	0.66%

 

The council elections saw a decline in turnout of 32,730. This was almost entirely due to nationalist voters staying home. The decline in the nationalist vote was 27,767. The decline in the Alliance-Green vote was 7,056. The unionist vote is more difficult to determine due to the presence of NI21. NI21 was a unionist party until 1 day before the election when it designated as unaligned. If it is not considered unionist then the unionist vote declined 10,439. If it is considered unionist then the unionist vote increased 1,056. Transfers in the council and Euro elections indicated that only half of the NI21 vote originated from unionist voters (usually UUP). I estimate that the unionist vote was down 5,000 and the Alliance Green vote was down 1,000 if NI21 did not compete in this election. Most of the decline of 32,730 between the 2011 and 2014 council elections was due to the 27,767 decrease in nationalist votes. The nationalist decline was slightly higher for SF than the SDLP but the percentage decline was greater for the SDLP. Since the independent nationalist vote was also down there is no evidence that the decline in SF and SDLP votes is due to defection to independent nationalists. The voters just stayed home. The Green vote was unchanged but the Alliance vote was down 7,000. Most of the decline in the Alliance vote is due to voters who defected to NI21 though a few may have defected to the UUP. In the unionist electorate there was a large decline in the DUP vote of 34,550, almost 20% of their 2011 vote. Almost that entire vote defected to the TUV, PUP, and UKIP. However, some DUP voters also defected to the UUP. This is difficult to discern because the UUP vote was only up 732. However, the UUP lost some votes to NI21 and gained an equal number from the DUP and ended up essentially unchanged. If NI21 had not competed the UUP vote would have been up approximately 6,000.

The Euro election results are more enlightening and present a more accurate picture of political party strength than the council elections. This is because in the council elections the smaller parties such as Alliance, Green, TUV, UKIP, and PUP do not compete in many DEA’s so their voters cannot vote for them in a council election. Other than the PUP, this was not an issue in the Euro election. Compared to the 2011 Assembly vote the Euro vote was down 35,611. The nationalist vote was down 44,479, much more than in the council elections. The Alliance-Green vote was down 1,876 and the unionist vote was up 191. The actual unionist vote was up ~ 5,000 since half the NI21 vote originated from unionist parties and the Alliance-Green vote would also have been up due to the same reasons. You will notice some unusual anomalies when comparing the council vote and the Euro vote which I will provide an explanation for. The unionist vote in the Euro election was 319,135 compared to 309,625 in the council election, which was 9,059 higher. The nationalist vote was 17,207 lower in the Euro election compared to the council election. The Alliance Green vote was also 6,873 votes higher in the Euro election. How could this be? For the nationalist vote the reason is that in the council election there were many independent nationalist candidates who received 21,763 votes. Half of that vote was for dissident republican candidates. The combined SF-SDLP vote was 4,546 higher in the Euro election so 4,546 of that 21, 763 voted for SF or SDLP in the Euro election. It appears that another 6,873 voted Alliance Green in the Euro election. While a very small number voted for a unionist candidate it appears that 10,000 did not vote in the Euro election. There were actually 636,000 people who voted in the Euro election but 10,000 of those votes were invalid. Tweets and other observations from the polling stations indicated that most of these were blank ballots rather than spoiled ballots. So 10,000 of those independent nationalist voters who voted in the council election did not vote in the Euro election. The unionist vote in the Euro election was 9,510 higher in the Euro election compared to the council election. How could this possibly be? The Alliance Green vote was also higher in the Euro election so it is not possible that Alliance Green council voters voted unionist in the Euro election. The reason is that in the council elections there were 9,000 voters who did not vote in the council elections and these were mainly blank ballots. The TUV, UKIP and PUP did not compete in many constituencies so their voters could not vote for their preferred party. You will notice that the combined TUV-PUP-UKIP vote was 50,000 in the council elections but 100,000 in the Euro elections. The DUP-UUP vote was 31,000 less in the Euro election and when adding in the 10,000 independent unionist council vote that accounts for 41,000 of that extra TUV-UKIP vote in the Euro elections. It appears that 9,000 TUV-UKIP voters in the Euro election did not vote in the council election because they were unwilling to vote for the DUP-UUP candidates. Most of those additional 50,000 TUV-UKIP voters in the Euro election did vote for unionist candidates in the council elections but 9,000 did not. The ~9,000 invalid ballots in the council election were unionist voters and the 9,000 invalid ballots in the Euro election were nationalist voters. If there had been an acceptable independent nationalist candidate in the Euro election (i.e. PBP or dissident republican) then most of that extra 10,000 vote deficit in the nationalist vote in the Euro election would not have occurred. If the TUV, UKIP and PUP had competed in most DEA’s the unionist vote would have been 9,000 higher in the council election.

The Euro election provides an accurate view of the current state of the unionist electorate compared to the 2011 Assembly election. The unionist vote was up 191 compared to 2011 so we are essentially comparing the same voters who voted in 2011. Census statistics and NISRA emigration data indicate that the Protestant voting age population is unchanged since 2011. Half of NI21 voters originated from the unionist parties so the total unionist vote is up ~6,000 which is a 1% increase in turnout. In the Euro vote the TUV-UKIP-PUP vote was up 78,000 compared to 2011. The DUP vote was down 67,273 representing a loss of 1/3 of their 2011 electorate of 198,436. The UUP vote was down 4,093 but these were voter lost to NI21. Overall, the Euro vote was down ~26,000 from the 2011 Assembly election. It appears the nationalist vote was down ~34,000 and the unionist vote up~8,000. Unionist turnout was up 1% and nationalist turnout was down 5%. The official turnout figures are somewhat misleading because they are based only on the 1,250,000 voters who are on the electoral register. There are another 170,000 potential voters who are not on the register. The 635,000 who showed up to vote represent 45% of the whole adult (18+) population. The unionist turnout was approximately 49% and the nationalist turnout approximately 42% after accounting for Alliance, Green and NI21 transfers.

Now I will look at the winners and losers in the election. They are ranked from #1 to #11 based on how well they did in the election compared to 2011.

THE WINNERS

#1 TUV

The TUV are the #1 winner in this election. Their 75,806 Euro vote is 59,326 higher than their 2011 Assembly vote. Their 28,161 council vote is twice their 2011 council vote. Jim Allister far exceeded any predictions for his Euro vote. He was only 13,000 votes behind the UUP when he was eliminated. Another 3,000 UKIP transfers and an increased 1^st preference of 10,000 (either from increased turnout or more 1^st preference from DUP or UUP) and he would have been an elected MEP. My only criticism of the TUV was their failure to contest many DEA’s, including ones with unionist majorities such as Dunsilly, Airport, Glengormley, Cusher, etc. . If they had contested most DEA’s their council total probably would have exceeded 40,000. Analysis by constituency indicates they would elect MLA’s in East Derry, North Antrim, East Antrim and possible East Belfast. Other possibilities are Lagan Valley, South Antrim and Upper Bann. With their 2014 result they can effectively prevent Peter Robinson from granting any concessions to SF.

#2 UKIP

Their Euro vote of 24,584 was over 20,000 higher than their 2011 Assembly vote. At 4% it was twice the general expectation. Their council vote of 9,313was over 3 times their 2011 vote. As with the TUV my only criticism would be that they failed to contest most DEA’s. Although some of their Euro vote originated from the PUP and independents it is likely that their council vote would have doubled if they have contested most DEA’s.

#3 PUP

They had been written off as dead by most commentators. They topped the poll in Court and took a council seat from the DUP in Oldpark. They tripled their 2011 council vote. They galvanized the loyalist community over the Belfast flag controversy. There some pre-election speculation that their open leadership of the flag protests  would lead to a backlash and increased turnout among working class and middle class Catholics that would neutralize their increased vote. The exact opposite occurred. Nationalist voters stayed home, 34,000 of them compared to 2011. Their strategy confirmed that they have nothing to fear from the nationalist voters. My only criticism was their failure to stand a Euro candidate and more council candidates. The Euro candidate would have received at least 12,000 votes. Analysis of constituencies indicates that the DUP will lose an MLA in East Belfast which will be won by either the PUP or TUV. They potentially could win a seat in North Belfast where the combined PUP-TUV vote was 11%.

#4 UUP

The UUP did unexpectedly well considering that prior to the election it was thought that they would lose a significant number of votes to NI21. Their council vote was up slightly though the Euro vote was down slightly compared to 2011. There appears to have been only a 5,000 vote loss to NI21 in the council elections which was made up by an equally large gain from the DUP. Constituency tallies show they are now 7% higher than the DUP in Fermanagh South Tyrone and would take an Assembly seat from the DUP. With a terrible election result by the DUP (see below) Mike Nesbitt is in a good position to negotiate electoral pacts for Westminster. Expect the UUP to agree to step aside in East and North Belfast and possibly North Down with a UUP unity candidate in Fermanagh South Tyrone and South Belfast. The constituency vote indicates that the SF would now lose Fermanagh South Tyrone to a unionist unity candidate due to a further decline in nationalist turnout. The decline in the SDLP vote and total nationalist vote in South Belfast also indicates that a UUP unity candidate would also win in South Belfast. The DUP are already publicly pressing for an electoral pact with the UUP and the UUP can dictate the terms as the DUP desperately want an MP in East Belfast.

Neutral

#5 Green

The Green council vote was unchanged from 2011 but they did pick up key council seats in East Belfast and North Down. Their Euro vote was down from 2009 which was a low turnout election. Since their Euro vote was only 4,000 higher than their council vote they appear to have little appeal outside the few DEA’s they target. They will always have their niche. The influence of their voters is limited by the fact that their voters have the highest rate of non-transfers of any party. This limits the ability of their voters to elect members of other parties that would be friendly to their agenda.

Losers

#6 Alliance

Alliance barely qualifies for the loser category. It is a fact though that their council vote was down 7,000 compared to 2011 and their Euro vote was down 6,443 from the 2011 Assembly election. This is large in percentage terms. This decline is somewhat illusory since the majority of that decline is due to voters who defected to NI21. This is not the entire story. They did well in Belfast but their vote was down significantly in DEA’s outside of Belfast. They lost 20% of their vote in the DEA’s extending from Ballyclare to Carrickfergus to Larne Lough despite no competition from NI21. The vote was down in Castlereagh East and Ards as well. In those areas they lost votes to unionists. The East Belfast vote indicates that they would lose their only MP and with a unionist electoral pact it would definitely be lost.

#7 Sinn Fein

SF have generally been classed as winners in this election but only because of how well they did in the Republic, winning 3 euro seats. However, this article only concerns Northern Ireland. Their council vote declined 12,454 in only 3 years and their Euro vote was 18,411 less than their Assembly vote in 2011. This decline is actually worse because of the context in which it occurred. Census data indicate the nationalist electorate has increased by 24,000 since 2011. With the 2014 turnout the nationalist vote should have increased by 10,000 with most of that (~7,000) going to SF. So their true decline is in the 20,000 to 25,000 range. Less than 3 weeks before the election David Cameron was courting the DUP and at the same time the SF party leader was arrested and imprisoned. With such favouratism  by the British government towards the DUP while at the same time showing obvious contempt for the party leader one would expect that the party activists and republican voters would have been motivated to vote. Losing 10% of your electorate in such circumstances is not a good sign. They lost these voters to apathy since the independent nationalist vote also declined. Constituency vote shows they would lose an MLA seat in Fermanagh South Tyrone to the SDLP and also lose Assembly seats in West Belfast (unionist gain) and East Antrim (unionist gain)

#8 SDLP

The SDLP council vote was down 13,722 compared to 2011 and the Euro vote was down 12,692 compared to the 2011 Assembly vote. With the demographic changes since 2011 one would have expected their vote to be up perhaps 3,000. While their absolute vote decline is similar to SF their percentage decline is greater. The constituency vote indicates they would have lost their MP seat to the DUP in South Belfast even without a unionist pact. They would also lose an Assembly seat in South Belfast though gain one in Fermanagh South Tyrone.

#9 DUP

Despite all the spin by DUP politicians this election was a total disaster for the DUP. Their council vote was down 34,500 compared to 2011. Belfast was particularly bad. In the Court DEA the PUP topped the poll and their top vote getter McCoubry (formerly UDP) had only recently joined the party. His vote total almost equaled the vote of the other 3 DUP candidates combined. If he had not joined the DUP they would have gone from 4 councilors in 2011 to 1 in 2014. They lost a seat to the PUP in Oldpark and the UUP in Titanic. From 15 seats out of 51 in the old Belfast council they declined to 13 out of 60 in the new council. They are now also 7% behind the UUP in Fermanagh South Tyrone. Their council decline would have been greater but the TUV, UKIP and PUP did not contest many DEA’s. Their Euro vote declined 67,223 from their 2011 Assembly vote of 198,436. Losing a third of their voters places them firmly in the column as the worst loser among the major parties. Unlike the nationalist parties, they cannot blame their vote decline on voter apathy since unionist turnout was actually increased in 2014. Almost the entire DUP decline was due to loss of voters to the hard line unionist parties but votes were also lost to the UUP. Apparently the unionist electorate decided to send a message to the DUP for ambiguity regarding the flag protest. The controversy over the OTR’s damaged them as some British politicians claimed that the DUP knew all along about the amnesty plan but that the British government agreed to provide them cover by claiming that it was the UUP that agreed to the amnesty. Of course being in government with SF at Stormont did not help. The DUP have always been good at strategy. Expect the DUP to take a more hard-line approach with SF. The DUP are in an excellent position to do so. Their electorate demands it and they will make no concessions to SF on any matter. They are in a strong position since SF has no options. It is a lose-lose situation for SF. If SF concedes too much to the DUP then even more SF voters stay home or defect to dissident republicans. If SF collapses the Assembly then they will be hurt electorally in the Republic as they would be seen as unstable, unpredictable and unsuitable for any governing coalition. The DUP are certainly aware of the message they have been given by the unionist electorate as 1/3 of unionist voters voted for the TUV and UKIP, parties that believe that SF should not be allowed in any government in Northern Ireland. They will act accordingly.

#10 Conservatives

The Conservatives received their usual less than 1% vote. It is not even clear why they continue to compete. Probably because the national party insist that they do.

#11 NI21

What can I say? The party imploded in 2 days. Only 1 councilor elected. A Euro vote less than 2%. One MLA is involved in a scandal and certain to lose his seat in 2016. The other MLA is certain to lose his seat also as the NI21 vote was less than 1% in South Down. Will this party even exist in one month? Their best option would be to disband and encourage party members to join the Alliance Party or UUP.

Overall it was a major win for hardline unionism. Although the TUV and UKIP currently have only 2 MLA’s at Stormont they can effectively dictate DUP policy in the Executive with SF and they have 100,000 voters to back them up. Nationalism was the big loser with 34,000 voters dropping out of the electorate. The 38.5% nationalist vote in the Euro election is the lowest nationalist percentage in 20 years and turnout was only 42%. Nationalist nonvoters have given their silent approval of the hardline unionist agenda.

 

 

 

 

 

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Is there a Middle Ground?

As the dust settles after another round of elections the same old questions, like the “dreary steeples of Fermanagh and Tyrone”, rear their weary heads yet again.

I have long thought that moving beyond the simple sectarian headcount was possible in elections here. Unlikely but possible. I have viewed the possibility passively more as an observer more than a participant. I have witnessed the relentless increase in the nationalist vote over a relatively short period of time along with the inevitability of the decline in the pro union vote. The pro nationalist vote has stood still this time. I am quite relaxed about that. The nationalist vote in Fermanagh stood still for a long time before eventually powering ahead. There is no longer any dispute about which is the stronger voting block in that county. For many years the nationalist vote was kept in check by a three pronged approach. Gerrymandering, enforced emigration through allocation of employment and limitation of voting rights. That day is long gone thanks to the efforts of many others.

This round of elections has thrown up some interesting things. By accident almost, we have an all Ireland element in both the Euros and the local elections. The Sinn Fein performance is, without doubt, very good. In the Euro Elections a nationalist was elected on the first count exceeding the quota in the Northern constituency. They were elected in every other Irish region. Imagine how a certain Revd/ Dr/ Mr  Paisley would have reacted to that back in the day? There is no question that things are moving along at a rate of knots. The SDLP had a good candidate who performed well. He fell at the transfer hurdle.

Within Unionism, Dianne Dodds, who distinguished herself with her sour and nasty reaction at the previous election, limped over the line eventually, Jimbo did very well and will be pleased no doubt. Expect a lurch to his approach on the part of the DUP shortly. As for the UUP? Less said the better.

So the question remains, is there a middle ground?

NI21 imploded as we all know by now. Alliance did what Alliance do, 6 to 7 %. The Greens pretty much held their ground also although the Euro candidate performed poorly. I see no evidence of a resurgent middle ground yet. All I see is a nationalist  electorate reluctant to vote possibly due to a lack of motivation and a unionist electorate motivated by fear and loathing.

 

 

Time to draw breath?

Good evening all.

A couple of days full of high drama, political scandal, raised voices, wild predictions, political shocks, cummupances, high points, low points and even fisticuffs at count centres (Derry I believe). Great fun and I’ve enjoyed it for the most part. I hope you all have.

At time of writing 9 seats have still to be decided so I may be a little premature but I thought it would be a good evening to take stock and put some context on the results. The devil, as always, will be in the detail and time enough to look at that. Below is a chart examining the results in percentages over the last few Council elections in the North. It is not exhaustive but it is accurate as of now.

As we may see above Sinn Fein have held their own, SDLP have a problem, the DUP have a major problem and the UUP have steadied the ship. The “dissident” Unionists have done pretty well and the Greens have done what the Greens usually do. I might add I was personally delighted for John Barry who I interviewed on this blog, getting elected in second place far above expectations. Nuala Toman of SF, also interviewed recently here, almost pulled off what would have been a major shock by narrowly failing to make the grade in Castlereagh South.

A number of wider political questions present themselves from these results.

Is this a typical “mid term” election where voters are punishing the incumbent governmental parties?

What are the parties doing to encourage political engagement from potential voters?

Is there a tendency of a drift to the extremes on the part of those who are politically active and voters?

Ah well, Let’s do it all again on Monday- from a European perspective?

The what’s going on? election thread

In case anyone missed it, there happen to be two elections tomorrow.

The Euros of which more below and the local council elections.

For an unreconstructed number cruncher like myself this is manna from Heaven. I can’t wait for the counts to kick off on Friday morning !

Perhaps it would be useful to open a thread here recording results as they come in. Any and all info is welcome. For the record the results of the Europoll here are posted below, complete with full preferences.

I will have limited access to the blog on Friday but I look forward to the fun and games

Enjoy the day

Some Thoughts on the Castlereagh Citadel

The interview below was conducted for a series on Slugger.

I had an interesting conversation recently with the Sinn Fein candidate for Castlereagh South, Nuala Toman.

Being honest, I was hoping for an insight into Sinn Fein strategy for the forthcoming elections and, perhaps, a snappy line that I might use as a headline for this article to engage readers.

What I got was a smart, friendly, local political candidate who surprised me with her knowledge, intelligence and experience, and disarmed me somewhat with her candour and focus on the constituency she is standing in.

Nuala has a formidable background. She has a solid academic background in Universities in Glasgow and QUB specializing in educational development, she has worked in Gerry Adams office for Sinn Fein and has held a number of impressive posts on various voluntary bodies.

I was particularly interested in meeting Nuala because of my own interest in marginal constituencies and the demographic changes occurring rapidly in Belfast.

Our meeting in the Sinn Fein Office on the Falls rd was strangely informal. Perhaps I expected a minder or an observer. Perhaps that’s me.

We kicked off with a look at the figures. I know mine and she knew hers.

I asked her about the two key aspects of her constituency, maximizing her vote and growing it.

She was very clear that the strategy within the party was to canvass areas that had never been canvassed before. The response was surprising according to Nuala. She had expected some hostility but experienced engagement. When pressed, she insisted this included what would have been previously perceived as exclusively Unionist areas.

I moved the conversation on, as you do, to the “bread and butter” issues.

Nuala has an admirable list of local issues which she is prioritizing for her campaign including transport, infrastructure, local access issues, housing development and local employment opportunities.

All well and good but what are her chances?In Fahas analysis over on my own site the combined nationalist vote in Castlereagh South should be in excess of 40%. I asked how she anticipated maximizing that vote and growing it.She emphasised the importance of being accessible and engaging with all parts of the community. I then touched on the currently politically  topical aspect of ethnic minorities.

This part of Ireland has a long history of immigrant minorities. The Celts, the Normans, the Hugenouts, the Scots planters, the Anglo aristocracy for example.I asked if, given the recent racially motivated incidents in Belfast, Sinn Fein was getting any feedback from these communities. Nuala was interestingly reluctant to comment. Her concern was that by making a comment she may put at risk people in mixed or predominantly loyalist areas. When pressed on the issue she responded that “On the South Belfast DPCSP I have actually ensured Hate Crime is a priority issue and been key to developing a strategy to tackle hate crime.”

The question as to whether Sinn Fein will make a breakthrough in Castlereagh will, of course, be answered on May 22^nd.

 

Belfast Council part 4 – The East

And so to Fahas final council analysis. At the end of this post is a summary prediction for the whole of the new Belfast council. I am considering another prediction contest perhaps based upon party percentage performance across all of the new areas prior to the actual poll on May 22. (BD)

This final analysis of Belfast will cover the East Belfast DEA’s of Titanic, Ormiston and Lisnasharragh. These areas have the greatest change in demographic makeup in Belfast, even more so than South Belfast. The following shows the demographics of the wards in the 2011 census in certain age cohorts and the change in the Catholic and Protestant population between the 2001 census and the 2011 census.

What is clear is that there has been a large increase in the Catholic population of all East Belfast wards, especially in Ravenhill, Woodstock, The Mount, Orangefield, Bloomfield and Island (now renamed Connswater). The decline in the Protestant population has been even greater than the increase in the Catholic population, exceeding 20% in some wards. The decline in the Protestant population is greater than the increase in the Catholic population because those with Other religions and None have also increased. Most of the Other and some of the None are ethnic nationals that have settled in East Belfast. The age profile of the wards is consistent with what occurs with “white flight” which has been studied extensively in the USA. Minority groups (native Catholics and foreign immigrants), who are generally young families, move into a majority group area (native Protestants). They usually replace elderly members of the majority group who slowly die off as well as younger members of the majority group who emigrate to the suburbs. You will notice that there are very few Catholics in the over 60 and over 70 age groups. The percentage of Catholics relative to Protestants is much higher in the younger age groups. It is usually in the 25 to 39 age cohort but in middle class areas it may extend to the 49 age cohort. The 0 to4 and 0 to 14 age cohorts have a similar composition to the 25 to 39 age cohort (their parents). In some wards this is seen in all age cohorts among school children and in other wards in mainly shows up in the youngest (0-4) age groups. In the Castlereagh area the wards of Wynchurch, Hillfoot, Cregagh, Downshire and Gilnahirk show similar trends though it is minimal in the wards of Lisnasharragh, Tullycarnet, Upper and Lower Braniel. In another 20 years, East Belfast will have the same demographic makeup that South Belfast had 10 years ago.

The following shows the change in the turnout for the nationalist and unionist parties comparing the 2005 and 2011 district council elections.

All the wards of Castlereagh Central are within the new Belfast Council but only 2 wards from Castlereagh East were transferred to Belfast. The results show:

#1 Turnout declined only slightly between the 2005 and 2011 elections.

#2 Unionist turnout is in the 50% range, except in Pottinger where it is much lower.

#3 Nationalist turnout is low in all DEA’s, except Castlereagh Central.

The change in the party vote between 2005 and 2011 is as follows:

The new DEA’s have changed. Titanic (formerly Pottinger) lost the Ravenhill and Orangefield wards and gained the Sydenham and Connswater (formerly Island) wards. Ormiston (formerly Victoria) lost Sydenham and Island and gained the Castlereagh wards of Gilnahirk, Tullycarnet, Upper Braniel and part of Lower Braniel. The Lisnasharragh DEA bears no resemblance to any current DEA. It includes the Rosetta ward, the Ravenhill and Orangefield wards, most of Castlereagh Central and the Hillfoot ward from Castlereagh West.

The average ward for Belfast is 3535. The total electorate and average ward electorate for each DEA is.

Titanic                21338 (3556)

Ormiston           24843 (3549)

Lisnasharragh   20118 (3353)

The demographics and predicted election results are based on the 2011 turnout.

These are the most likely results, based on the 2011 turnout. Ormiston is the least likely to show any change. In 2014, the Catholic electorate is probably 12%, with another 3% from the Other/None group that could potentially vote for a nationalist candidate. Even though the quota is only 12.5%, a potential electorate of 15% is not enough to elect a nationalist candidate because the nationalist turnout is so low and some of that 15% will vote Alliance. In another 10 years, the situation will be different since the nationalist electorate will have increased to over 20%, which will be enough to elect a SDLP councilor.

In Titanic, because of demographic change, the Catholic electorate is probably 23% in 2014. With another possible 3% to 4% from the Other/None group it would be at least 26%. Since a quota is only 14.3% there should be a nationalist councilor here. The estimated quota will be 1500. The potential nationalist electorate in 2014 is over 7000. There are several reasons it would not occur based on the 2011 vote.

#1 SF only concentrates on their base in Short Strand, even though 2/3 of the nationalist electorate resides outside that area.

#2 SF receive few transfers from other parties, even the SDLP.

#3 The SDLP devotes little effort to this DEA, even though there is a large potential nationalist electorate.

#4 There is 3300 ethnic non nationals old enough to vote in Titanic. Approximately 1800 were on the December 2013 electoral register. 2/3 are from the EU (mainly Polish). There have been several recent high profile attacks on foreign nationals in this area that appear to have originated from the loyalist community .The Alliance Party, SF and the SDLP  have been publicly supportive in condemning these attacks while the PUP, TUV and DUP have been silent. It is not clear if much effort has been made by the SDLP and SF in voter registration and canvassing these potential voters. Ignoring these 3300 potential voters would be a major strategic failure on the part of the SDLP and SF.

#5 Nationalist turnout was only 36% in 2011. It was over 50% in Short Strand so probably less than 30% outside of that area. The nationalist parties generally ignore the 2/3 of the nationalist electorate outside of Short Strand and need to make this a high priority. In 10 years, if the nationalist parties decide to seriously contest this DEA, there would be seats for both SF and the SDLP. At that point, the nationalist electorate will be approximately 34%.

The Lisnasharragh DEA is difficult to project because it is a conglomeration of wards from 4 existing DEA’s. You will notice that there are significant ward average discrepancies between the DEA’s. The average electorate for Lisnasharragh is only 3353, which is 1100 voters short of the average for Belfast. This is another example of the brilliance of the unionist parties and the incompetence of the nationalist parties when it comes to these matters. At no point in the process in which the new wards and new DEA’s were devised did the nationalist parties introduce legislation or insist that the new wards and DEA’s have equal numbers of voters. If Lisnasharragh had an additional 1100 voters (which would have come from Botanic, which has 1500 voters too many and of which these additional voters would have been 2/3 nationalist), then the nationalist electorate would have been 3% higher. Whether an additional 20% of a quota would be enough to elect a SF councilor will not be known until after the election. In 2014, due to demographic growth, the Catholic electorate will be 31%, with an additional potential nationalist vote of 3% from the Other/None group for a total electorate of 34%. 2 quotas would be 28.6%. Since the SDLP is strong in this area, the SDLP vote should far exceed the quota of 14.3%. A very good turnout could see a total nationalist vote of 30%, with the remainder of the nationalist voters voting Alliance or Green. Since the SDLP and Alliance will each elect one, the final seat will probably come down to SF or Alliance. My estimate of the 2014 vote, based on 2010 Westminster tallies, is

SF   0%  SDLP     23.76%  Alliance  23.31%  Green   3.09%    UUP      16.19%   DUP     33.65%

The UUP is slightly above 1 quota and the DUP are above 2 quotas. Clearly there will be 3 non unionist seats. There will definitely be 1 Alliance and 1 SDLP seat. The big unknown is how much of the SDLP vote in 2010 who voted SDLP originated from SF voters who did not have a candidate to vote for. How many SF voters stayed home who would have otherwise voted? Also, the nationalist turnout in the wards that are part of the East Belfast constituency would have had a very low nationalist turnout in both the 2010 Westminster and 2011 council elections. The East Belfast wards contain 16% of the nationalist electorate so will they vote in much higher numbers in 2014? SF has the potential for a seat here if they are willing to put in the effort to increase nationalist turnout and target SDLP transfers.

For all the Belfast DEA’s the party makeup based on the 2011 election would be:

SF    19 SDLP  7  Eirigi   1  Alliance 9  UUP      5  DUP     17     PUP      2

I believe the most likely result in 2014 would be the following:

SF     20  SDLP  8  Eirigi   1  Alliance 8  UUP      4  DUP     17  PUP    2

The demographic changes in Castle since 2011 will probably result in a SDLP gain and UUP loss. If SF and the SDLP seriously contest Titanic then SF will win a seat at the expense of the 2^nd Alliance seat. There would be 29 nationalist councilors and 23 unionist councilors with 8 Alliance so it does not appear that there would be a nationalist majority in the 2014 election. There are possible additional SF seats in Oldpark and Lisnasharragh as well as possible SDLP seats in Court, Balmoral and Botanic but this would require a higher nationalist turnout, as much as 600 additional nationalist voters per DEA, for this to occur. The maximum number of nationalist councilors could be as high as 34 but the unionist candidates in those 5 DEA’s have the advantage based on the 2011 turnout.

Belfast Council part 3 – The South

This analysis of the new Belfast council will cover the South Belfast DEA’s of Botanic and Balmoral. The following shows the change in the turnout for the nationalist and unionist parties comparing the 2005 and 2011 district council elections.

The election turnout for the 2005 and 2011 elections indicate:

#1 Turnout declined between the 2005 and 2011 elections.

#2 Nationalist turnout declined at a greater rate (13%) than unionist turnout (6%) in the Balmoral DEA.

#3 Nationalist turnout is higher than unionist turnout.

#4 Turnout is very low in the Lagan Bank DEA, mainly due to the large number of students. Most students, if they vote, vote in their home districts. This DEA also has a large number of ethnic nationals who vote at a lower rate than the native population. These factors, to a lesser extent, account for the low turnout in the Balmoral DEA.

The change in the party vote between 2005 and 2011 is as follows:

There was a substantial decline in the SDLP vote in Balmoral. Approximately half these SDLP voters stayed home and the other half defected to SF, Alliance and Green. There was also a large decline in the UUP and DUP vote in Balmoral. Some of these voters defected to Alliance and Green. The remainder of the decline is due to a declining unionist electorate and voters who stayed home. In Lagan Bank, the SF, SDLP, UUP and DUP vote declined. Half of decline was due to voters who defected to the Alliance and Green candidates and the other half was due to voters who stayed home.

The new DEA’s have changed. The Balmoral DEA added the new Belvoir ward, which consists of the Minnowburn ward and sections of the Drumbo, Beechill, Newtownbreda and Rosetta wards. The Blackstaff and Windsor wards were removed from Balmoral and transferred to the Botanic DEA (previously named Lagan Bank). The Rosetta ward was removed from Botanic and transferred to Lisnasharragh DEA.

The average ward for Belfast is 3535. The total electorate and average ward electorate for each DEA is.

Balmoral             17119 (3424)

Botanic                19138 (3838)

The demographics and predicted election results are based on the 2011 turnout.

The removal of the nationalist Rosetta ward and the addition of the overwhelmingly protestant Blackstaff ward in the Botanic DEA would change the results in 2014. The DEA is 5% more Protestant and 6% less Catholic and this would result in a gain for the UUP and a loss for the SDLP. Balmoral is losing 1 seat and that loss would come from the SDLP. While it is likely this is what the results will be it is possible that the SDLP could regain these seats in Balmoral and Botanic. The demographics of the new Balmoral are identical to those of the old Balmoral. In the 2011 election the party vote was:

There has been no change in the voting age population since 2001 but the number of voters has declined by over 3600 in 10 years. This would be due to voter apathy. The overall Alliance and Green vote has increase by 360 due to defection from UUP and SDLP voters. The overall nationalist vote has decreased by 950 of which perhaps 150 defected to Alliance-Green and 800 due to voter apathy. However, there has been a massive decline in the total unionist vote, from 6517 in 2011 to 3449 in 2011. That is a decline of 3068 votes. Indeed, the unionist vote of 3449 in 2011 was only 2/3 of the unionist vote of 5121 in 2005. While perhaps 200 of that decline is due to defections to Alliance and Green most would be due to demographic decline and voter apathy. How much of that decline is due to demographic changes will determine the results in 2014. The trend suggests another 800 vote decline in 2014 but it is unlikely to be that high since the majority of that decline may be due to apathy, which is unlikely to worsen in 2014. If there is another 400 vote decline due to demographic changes and the SDLP increases nationalist turnout by 100 votes, then there would be a 2^nd SDLP seat here at the expense of the UUP. Any combination of declining unionist vote and increasing nationalist turnout that equals 500 votes would result in a 2^nd SDLP seat.

The situation in Botanic is similar. With the new boundaries the expected vote would be, based on the 2011 election.

The UUP candidate would be elected on DUP and Green transfers. However, between 2005 and 2011,  the unionist vote in Lagan Bank declined by over 1000 while the nationalist vote declined by less than 800. Furthermore, Blackstaff and Windsor were removed from Balmoral and some of that massive decline in the unionist vote in Balmoral occurred in those 2 wards. SF and Alliance are sitting on a quota exactly so will have little surplus to transfer. The Green vote transferred 75% SDLP and 25% UUP in the 2011 election. If the unionist vote declines by another 200 due to demographic changes and the SDLP increases their vote by another 400 votes they would win a 2^nd seat here. There are also over 6,000 ethnic nationals of voting age in this constituency, of which 2,500 were on the December 2013 electoral register. If the SDLP were to target those voters and increase their vote total by another 400 votes, they would win a 2^nd seat.

 

Belfast Council part 2 – The West

Next up is Fahas analysis of West Belfast. Interestingly he predicts a first seat for Eirigi in Black Mountain, remember where you saw that first if it comes to pass! It will also be interesting to see the electoral fallout resulting from the Gerry Adams debacle.

This analysis of the new Belfast council will cover the West Belfast DEA’s of Court, Black Mountain and Collin. These new DEA’s include most of the current Court DEA, the Upper Falls and Lower Falls DEA’s and 85% of the Dunmurry Cross DEA from Lisburn. The following shows the change in the turnout for the nationalist and unionist parties comparing the 2005 and 2011 district council elections.

The election turnout for the 2005 and 2011 elections indicate:

#1 Nationalist turnout remained the same in Upper Falls; one of the rare DEA’s where voter turnout did not decline between 2005 and 2011.

#2 Unionist turnout is low in the overwhelmingly nationalist DEA’s of Dunmurry Cross, Upper Falls and Lower Falls

#3 Nationalist turnout is very low in the overwhelmingly unionist Court DEA.

The change in the party vote between 2005 and 2011 is as follows:

There was a moderate decline in the SDLP vote in the Lower Falls DEA and a more substantial decline in the Upper Falls DEA. There was a large decline in the SF vote in Lower and Upper Falls. Most of that decline was due to defection of SF voters to various dissident republican candidates. There was also a substantial decline in the UUP and DUP vote in Court DEA.

The new DEA’s have changed substantially. The new Court DEA includes all of the current Court DEA (except for the section of Crumlin ward north of Crumlin Road) and a section of Legoniel ward. It also includes the Lower Falls wards of Clonard, Falls and part of Beechmount. Black Mountain DEA includes all of the current Upper Falls (except the Ladybrook ward) and the Upper Springfield, Whiterock and most of the Beechmount wards from Lower Falls. Collin DEA includes Ladybrook ward and most of the current Dunmurry Cross DEA except for half of the Seymour Hill ward and the entire Derryaghy South ward.

The average ward for Belfast is 3535. The total electorate and average ward electorate for each DEA is.

Court                        20772 (3462)

Black Mountain      25060 (3580)

Collin                        22028 (3671)

You will notice that there are significant ward average discrepancies between the 3 DEA’s. The Court DEA is 438 voters short of the average for Belfast wards. Black Mountain is 315 voters and Collin 816 voters in excess of the average. The unionist Court DEA is below average and the nationalist Black Mountain and Collin DEA’s are above average. This has significant implications for the election results in the Court DEA. This is another example of the brilliance of the unionist parties and the incompetence of the nationalist parties when it comes to these matters. At no point in the process in which the new wards and new DEA’s were devised did the nationalist parties introduce legislation or insist that the new wards and DEA’s have equal numbers of voters.

The demographics and predicted election results are based on the 2011 turnout.

The Court DEA will be the most interesting and unpredictable. The unionist parties automatically lose 1 councilor since the current 5 wards were reconfigured into 4 wards due to population loss in the previous 20 years. The loss could be 2 councilors if only 3 are elected. It would require a total nationalist vote of 42.9% for 3 quotas and the demographics indicate a nationalist vote of between 38% and 39%. However, in 2011 the nationalist turnout was 53% in the Lower Falls wards and the unionist turnout only 42% in the Court wards. Furthermore, the nationalist turnout in the Court DEA was only 18%. This was probably not due to true voter apathy. Rather, the nationalist voters stayed home because they knew there was no hope of electing a nationalist candidate in the Court DEA. Will these Court nationalist voters vote in 2014 now that there could be up to 3 nationalist candidates elected?  Here I present some more detailed data on the new Court wards:

In the 5 wards of the current Court DEA the Protestant population declined 10% over 10 years, a 1% yearly decline. The Catholic population increased 5% over 10 years, a 0.5% yearly increase. The total Catholic population in Court for 2001 was 1120 and this doubled to 2256 in 2011. In 2001, most of the Catholic population in Court lived in enclaves bordering Lower Falls and Legoniel. In 2011, half of the Catholic population is in those enclaves and the other half are diffusely dispersed. One census OA in Crumlin had a Catholic population of 1% in 2001 and it was 30% in 2011. Interestingly, there was also an increase in the Protestant population in Clonard and Falls though some of that increase is due to ethnic nationals who are Protestant. Based on the election results and turnout in 2011 the results for the new Court DEA would be:

SF       31%  SDLP     7%  Nationalist     3%  Alliance      1%  UUP           4%  DUP          41%  Unionist     13%

With a combined unionist vote of 58% and a combined nationalist vote of 41% it appears that there would be 4 unionist councilors elected. However, there are numerous factors that will affect the 2014 election results such as:

#1 What influence will the flag protests have on unionist turnout in 2014? If turnout goes up the unionist percentage will increase.

#2 Will the prospect of a 3^rd nationalist seat increase nationalist turnout among nationalist voters in both the current Court wards and the Lower Falls wards? If the Lower Falls wards turnout returns to 2005 levels there would be an additional 700 nationalist voters. In the old Court DEA wards only 300 of 1800 potential nationalist voters voted in 2011. With the prospect of a 3^rd nationalist seat there would be an additional 600 nationalist voters if turnout increased to 50% from these wards.

#3 How will the small Protestant population of Falls and Clonard vote (approximately 500 potential voters of which 200 may vote)?  Many may be living with Catholic partners and would probably vote for more moderate parties such as UUP, Alliance and SDLP.

#4 How will the transfer pattern work out?  In 2011, 1% of the 3% dissident republican vote did not transfer to SF or the SDLP. It is also likely that little of the Alliance vote will transfer to the DUP or PUP. Since the UUP may be eliminated, how much of their 4% will not transfer to the DUP or PUP or transfer to the SDLP? Some NI21 votes may also transfer to the SDLP.

#5 What will be the effect of the demographic changes since 2011? The trends suggest a further 2% decline in the Protestant electorate which would blunt any effect from increased turnout. The current Court DEA wards may have increased by another 200 to 300 Catholic voters.

#6 As noted above, the failure of the nationalist parties to obtain DEA’s with equal number of voters may have resulted in the loss of a potential nationalist seat. The Court DEA should have an additional 438 voters, all of whom would have been nationalist voters from expanding the DEA further into Beechmount ward. If this had occurred the nationalist vote in 2011 would have been 42% and the unionist 57% with 1% Alliance. Only after May 22^nd will we know if this would have been crucial.

SF are guaranteed 2 seats here and the DUP are guaranteed 3 seats. The 6^th seat will be won by either the SDLP or the DUP, PUP, TUV  or UUP. The SDLP candidate could be elected with the help of transfers from the SF surplus, independent nationalists, Alliance, NI21 and UUP. As in the Oldpark, the refusal of dissident republican voters to transfer to the SDLP or SF could result in the election of the PUP or DUP candidate. It would be ironic if this unwillingness to transfer to the SDLP and SF results in the failure of obtaining a nationalist majority on Belfast council.

The Black Mountain DEA is likely to elect the Eirigi candidate, as well as 5 SF and 1 SDLP. In 2011 Eirigi received 11.3% of the vote, far short of the 16.7% quota. However, this new DEA has a quota of only 12.5%. In 2011, Eirigi received an additional 0.5% in transfers. Furthermore, the boundary changes are favourable for Eirigi since Ladybrook ward was removed and the Upper Springfield and Whiterock wards and most of Beechmount ward were added. In these 3 wards there was a strong vote for Eirigi, Workers Party, Socialist Party and People Before Profit Alliance. During the boundary review, there was a proposal to transfer Beechmount ward to Court, which would have resulted in a 3^rd SF seat in Court DEA. SF opposed this move which would also have made Black Mountain a 6 ward DEA with a higher quota of 14.3%. Eirigi would find it difficult to reach 14.3%. Whether this was another poorly thought out strategy by SF will not be known until after the election. If Eirigi only polls 10%, the ward transfer would be of no consequence. If Eirigi polls 14.3%, the ward transfer would also be of no consequence. If Eirigi polls 12.5%, then SF may have gifted a seat to Eirigi. Eirigi will also benefit from transfers from the Workers Party and People Before Profit Alliance candidates in Black Mountain. In the 2011 Lowers Falls election, 20% of transferred votes from those parties went to Eirigi.

The Collin DEA should elect 5 SF and 1 SDLP. I estimate the SF vote at 72%, which are 5 quotas. The SDLP vote would be 18% with 10% Alliance-UUP-NI21. If the SDLP vote increased to over 20% there would be the possibility of electing 2, depending on the balancing of SF candidates and transfers from Alliance, UUP and NI21 voters. Eirigi could prevent SF from winning 5 seats. They will take 1^st preference votes from SF and some of these voters may not transfer back to SF.

Belfast Part 1 Council Elections

By Faha:

This final analysis of the new district councils will cover the new Belfast council. The new Belfast council includes all of the current Belfast council as well as adjoining areas from the current Lisburn, Castlereagh and North Down councils. Approximately 85% of the population of the Dunmurry Cross DEA, 40% of the Castlereagh West DEA, 25% of the Castlereagh East DEA and almost the entire Castlereagh Central DEA were transferred to Belfast City Council. A small section of the Drumbo ward was also transferred to Belfast as well as a small section of the Loughview ward from North Down. The demographic breakdown of the new Belfast council is 48.82% Catholic, 42.47% Protestant, 1.57% Other and 7.14% None. The demographics of the current Belfast council are 48.58% Catholic, 42.30% Protestant, 1.72% Other and 7.4% None. The new council will be 0.24% more Catholic and 0.17% more Protestant than the current Belfast. This is a very minor change. There was much speculation over the decisions made by the Boundary Commission on the new boundaries for Belfast. The DUP final council proposals transferred the 3 councils of Armagh, Limavady and Moyle to unionist control and some concluded that SF agreed to the new Belfast boundaries in a carve up. However, it is unlikely that the new boundaries in Belfast have anything to do with an agreement in the Executive between SF and the DUP. The new boundaries of Belfast show a net gain of only 0.07% in the Catholic population versus the Protestant population and it is unlikely that SF would have agreed to a net 0.07% increase in the nationalist electorate (approximately 70 votes out of 100,000 votes) in exchange for transferring those 3 councils to unionist control. Due to the importance, size and complexity of the Belfast council I am dividing this analysis into 4 separate sections: North, West, South and East. This initial one will cover the North Belfast DEA’s of Castle and Oldpark. The following shows the change in the turnout for the nationalist and unionist parties comparing the 2005 and 2011 district council elections.

The election turnout for the 2005 and 2011 elections indicate:

#1 There was a moderate decline in turnout between the 2005 and 2011 elections.

#2 Nationalist turnout was slightly higher than unionist turnout in the Oldpark DEA for both elections.

#3 In the Castle DEA nationalist turnout was 12% higher than unionist turnout in the 2005 election. There was a greater decline in nationalist turnout between 2005 and 2011 so that nationalist turnout was only 6% higher than unionist turnout in 2011.

The change in the party vote between 2005 and 2011 is as follows:

There would be no change in the election results with the new boundaries based on the 2011 turnout. Is there any possibility this could change in 2014? In the Castle DEA in 2011 the quota was 1433 and the final count showed:

2011 (quota 1433)     2011new boundaries (quota 1516)

Browne (UUP)             1440                                   1520

Patterson (DUP)          1433                                  1516

Spence (DUP)               1529                                  1516

Campbell (SF)               1335                                  1516

Cunningham (SF)         1433                                  1516

Convery (SDLP)             1433                                 1516

Mullaghan (SDLP)         1256                                 1343

In 2011 all 3 unionist candidates reached a quota with a surplus of a 103 undistributed votes and 1 SF and 1 SDLP candidates were short of a quota. If the 2011 election had been contested on the new boundaries there would have been approximately 430 more nationalist and 150 more unionist votes and the quota would have increased to 1516.  All 3 unionists would have reached a quota as well as both SF candidates. The 2^nd SDLP candidate would have lost by only 187 votes. How is 2014 any different? There have been continuing demographic changes in the previous 3 years. Between 2001 and 2011 the Catholic population increased 0.5% per year and the Protestant population declined 1% per year. If that trend continued the Catholic electorate would be 1.5% higher and the Protestant electorate 3% lower in 2014. With over 10000 voters, theoretically the demographic changes could add 150 nationalist votes with perhaps 250 fewer unionist votes. If that were to occur, a 2^nd SDLP candidates would be elected and 1 unionist candidate would be over 200 votes short a quota. Turnout will be crucial here. The SDLP and SF will need to stabilize or increase nationalist turnout. There are also 1700 ethnic nationals of voting age of which 900 were on the December 2013 electoral register. The SDLP will need to also target these voters to maximize the possibility of a 2^nd seat as well as transfers from independents, Alliance and NI21. NI21 will take some 1^st preference votes from the UUP and not all of these may return to the UUP. The SDLP and SF have until May 6^th to register more voters. This could be a very close election for the 6^th seat due to the boundary and demographic changes since 2011.

In the Oldpark DEA, the situation is different. Here the boundary changes have decreased the nationalist electorate by 1% and increased the unionist electorate by 1%. There have been demographic changes here also between 2001 and 2011 such that the demographic changes have probably evenly offset the boundary changes. Is it possible for SF to win a 4^th seat here with the same electorate as 2011? In the 2011 election the results were:

2011                            2014 Theoretical

SF                      5615           51.68%                  6115     53.34%

SDLP                 1184           10.90%                    1284     11.20%

Nationalist        525              4.83%                       525     4.58%

Alliance             303               2.79%                     303      2.64%

UUP                   540               4.97%                    540      4.71%

DUP                 2697             24.83%                     2697    23.53%

In 2011 it would have taken a combined nationalist vote of 71.4% for 5 quotas. The combined nationalist vote was 67.4% and with Alliance transfers it would have been 69.4%. Both DUP candidates barely reached a quota. If in 2014 there were 600 more nationalist voters then the combined nationalist vote would be 69.12% and with Alliance transfers 71.1%. Since some UUP votes would transfer to the SDLP the final DUP vote would only be 27.6%, 1% short of 2 quotas. The SDLP can reach a quota of 14.3% on Alliance, UUP and independent nationalist transfers. SF could reach 4 quotas of 57.2% on independent nationalist transfers and Alliance transfers (0.25% in 2011). Unfortunately for SF, the IRSP received 3.5% of the independent nationalist vote and 2.5% of that refused to transfer to SF or the SDLP. In 2014, the SDLP need to stabilize their vote and add perhaps 100 and target independent nationalist, Alliance and UUP transfers. There are also 1400 ethnic nationals of voting age of which 700 were on the December 2013 electoral register. The SDLP needs some of those voters and they have until May 6^th to register more. SF needs to bring out an additional 500 voters for a 4^th seat. They cannot do this by focusing only on their traditional republican base. They also need to target ethnic voters. Most important of all, they need to persuade the dissident republican voters who are unwilling to transfer to any nationalist candidate to give them a 2^nd preference. For some odd unknown reason, these voters prefer to see a DUP candidate elected rather than a 4^th SF candidate. This is not seen on the unionist side. There are TUV and PUP candidates standing and almost all of their transfers will make their way to the DUP. Unlike Castle DEA, where the boundary changes and demographic changes suggest an additional nationalist seat, the Oldpark DEA will require at least 600 additional nationalist voters, AND a willingness from dissident republican voters to defeat a DUP candidate, for an additional nationalist seat.