The premise for this blog was always to build upon the work of Horseman in his relentlessly logical and fact filled, but beautifully titled blog, Ulsters Doomed.
Little did I suspect when I began this blog, that his predictions would become so acute and so prescient so fast.
I have always been thinking towards a date of mid 2021-22. I was wrong, the time is now.
As so often in history, moments, or events, can change things faster than anticipated. In the circumstances of Ireland that is no surprise to those of us who are keen students of our past in order to better understand and shape our future. Examples abound across our history from the wars for an English crown in the 1690’s through to the struggles for civil rights in the 1960’s and much else before and after.
Today, the catalyst for change in Ireland is the brexit calamity but the central dynamic for the reunification of the island is, and has, remained constant since the enforced partition of Ireland by the Government of David lloyd George under the threat of “immediate and terrible War” in 1921.
The Brexit debacle has merely focussed minds.
As Edward Carson observed in 1922 “I was only a puppet, and so was Ulster, and so was Ireland, in the political game that was to get the Conservative Party into power.”
These days, the DUP have walked straight into that bear trap. They are now little more than the “paramonetary” wing of the brexiteer wing, of the conservative Party. It is a short sighted tactic which makes no strategic sense whatsoever.
The path ahead is now, in the short term, dependent upon the middle grounders. Those who don’t have a strong idealogical leaning towards the reunification of the island and those who are ambiguous regarding continuation of the link with the UK.
Brexit has decisively shifted the balance amongst this group.
The case for reunification has thus taken a decisive turn and I anticipate a border poll within the next 3 years.
To paraphrase the words of Horseman, Ulster (As it is defined by political unionism) is doomed.