I am indebted to a regular reader (Faha) who has kindly collated the Ward information into the Westminster constituencies. I am sure some of you will be very interested in the results as set out below. I have presented the information as simply as possible with the 2011 results and the percentage change since 2001 below.NI MAP Westminster election

The highlights?

North Belfast without doubt is going to be a knife edge battle at the next election. The swing is around 10% in ten years from protestant to catholic population although in common with every other constituency the rise in those of “none” must be factored in. East Belfast is particularly striking in it’s changes. An 11.6% drop in the protestant population is a huge figure.

Lagan Valley too is very interesting. A 15% swing requires some further analysis.

Every constituency recorded an increase in “Other” and “None”. The Protestant percentage declined in every constituency except West Belfast! The Catholic percentage rose in every constituency with the exceptions of West Belfast, South Down, Newry and Foyle, all overwhelmingly nationalist areas. This suggests to me that a large proportion of the “None” designation may, in fact,  be nationalists.

If, at the next general election, Alliance hold onto East Belfast and Nigel is defeated in North Belfast we would be looking at 9 Nationalist seats, 1 Alliance, 1 Independent and 7 Unionist.

Catholic Protestant Other None
East Belfast 12.70% 75.40% 1.44% 10.47%
5.16% -11.64% 1.02% 5.47%
North Belfast 46.94% 45.67% 1.04% 6.36%
2.94% -7.02% 0.59% 3.51%
South Belfast 44.01% 43.65% 2.80% 9.54%
3.00% -8.98% 1.36% 4.62%
West Belfast 79.96% 16.63% 0.61% 2.81%
-2.72% 0.47% 0.30% 1.94%
East Antrim 20.39% 70.11% 0.97% 8.53%
0.55% -5.19% 0.59% 3.92%
Lagan Valley 19.28% 71.82% 0.97% 7.94%
5.25% -9.52% 0.58% 3.69%
Strangford 17.28% 73.13% 0.94% 8.65%
0.61% -5.69% 0.61% 4.42%
South Antrim 31.86% 59.80% 0.87% 7.46%
3.75% -7.78% 0.49% 3.51%
North Down 12.59% 74.44% 1.15% 11.83%
0.92% -7.20% 0.63% 5.65%
South Down 69.26% 26.85% 0.52% 3.36%
-0.35% -1.82% 0.37% 1.80%
Newry & Armagh 66.36% 30.59% 0.55% 2.50%
-0.80% -1.24% 0.41% 1.63%
Upper Bann 42.87% 51.01% 0.89% 5.23%
0.00% -3.66% 0.46% 3.20%
North Antrim 28.39% 66.03% 0.74% 4.84%
1.04% -4.24% 0.52% 2.79%
Foyle 75.12% 22.02% 0.79% 2.07%
-0.53% -0.86% 0.42% 0.96%
East Derry 41.70% 53.27% 0.68% 4.35%
1.65% -3.97% 0.34% 1.98%
Fermanagh 57.69% 39.10% 0.61% 2.60%
2.11% -3.95% 0.35% 1.48%
West Tyrone 67.98% 30.16% 0.40% 1.47%
0.18% -1.10% 0.20% 0.72%
Mid Ulster 66.72% 30.78% 0.44% 2.06%
1.46% -2.94% 0.31% 1.18%
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