The British Election and making the case for a United Ireland

A Guest post by Sammy McNally

Quite how many people in Northern Ireland would prefer a United Ireland remains open to debate and as the decision on the need for a referendum lies with Theresa Villiers (the Viceroy) and as she currently has no plans to hold one, we are unlikely to find out anytime soon.

In the wake of the review of the (disappointing) census results, when the subject last enjoyed a period of public debate in Northern Ireland, SF took a bit of a beating when they tried to push the case for a referendum, with Unionists gleefully enquiring of SF whether they expected Northern Nationalists to vote for the Southern Health service.  Unionists had a point – and SF seem to have retreated quietly in some disarray to re-think their strategy.

The problem for SF was that FF had managed to almost bankrupt the Southern state with gombeenery, trousering, planning abuse and the encouragement of reckless speculation to the extent that one Irish Trade Unionist was moved to remark  – that the  Irish government had caused more economic damage than had been done by the British Government over hundreds of years. Nor could you anyway (at that point) have sold the case for land expansion to the electorate of the South who were being force fed austerity much worse than the Tory austerity being digesting by their fellow countrymen just across the border.

Britain remains the 5^th (IMF 2014 Wiki) richest country in the world and if we wish to make the case for re-claiming the 4^th Green Field we need to fight that battle on terrain that suits us – and that does not include trying to suggest Northern Nationalists would be better off economically in a United Ireland. Something that may, or perhaps more likely, may not, be the case.

The terrain that suits us better is clear however  when we look across the Irish Sea at the current election campaign underway in Britain and there we can see where the true strength of the case for Irish Unity lies.

There are of course many values that bind Britain and Ireland together but in many other respects we simply see the world differently – and this is particularly clearly illustrated when it comes to matters concerning foreign policy and membership of the EU.  We can also see the case for a united Ireland very clearly when we look at potential British coalition governments lining up Ulster unionist coalition partners (the DUP).A coalition that would not be in the best interests of good Ulster community relations or political stability in Ireland.

In the election campaign, the post military intervention shambles that is Libya, has raised its head, as thousands from Libya and neighbouring countries use the country as a departure point for their hazardous escape to Europe.

Mr Farage, who opposed military intervention, is supported (hypocritically) by Mr Miliband who favoured intervention in (correctly) pointing the finger at Mr Cameron for being at least partly responsible for the unfolding humanitarian crisis.  (You have got to be concerned when Mr Farage appears to be Mr Reasonable on matters of British foreign affairs.)

As the British people worry over young muslims departing to fight for ISIS and worry more about them returning to wreak havoc and mayhem on the streets of Britain, very few seem to want to see the link between their foreign policy and the threat from within. A threat which ex MI5 boss Stella Rimington reminded Tony Blair of

“So I think you can’t write the war in Iraq out of history. If what we’re looking at is groups of disaffected young men born in this country who turn to terrorism, then I think to ignore the effect of the war in Iraq is misleading.”

http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2008/oct/18/stella-rimington-9-11-mi5

I suspect MI5 have been told that such utterances were both unhelpful and embarrassing by Cameron, but these are cautionary words that still hadn’t been taken on board by the British PM when he was seeking support for military intervention in Syria – and we can only imagine how much more dangerous Britain and elsewhere would be if ISIS had been given a (further) leg up in Syria as well as Iraq and Libya.

The British have been involved with a series of campaigns that might be generously described as not in the best interests of world peace.  Campaigns begun under Blair and continued under Cameron, including Iraq, Afghanistan, Libya and (covertly) Syria. These campaigns could not be described as consistent with Ireland’s policy of neutrality but (insultingly) they do so with so-called ‘Irish’ regiments and with the involvement of Green Field Number 4.  (Surely it is time for the Irish government to formally request the renaming of these regiments.)

This is not to suggest that we debate the issue solely in terms of Perfidious Albion versus Immaculata Hibernia but rather to highlight the difference in values between our two countries – values that have been moulded by the different experiences of sitting on either side of the colonial divide for centuries.

Back in January, the DUP accused Ms Villiers of breaking her word on the setting up of a parade ‘panel’ which the DUP believed would be of assistance to Orange Order. This is the same DUP that a Tory Government might find itself reliant on to keep itself in power.

Of course the DUP have made (some of) their demands for support of any future government public, but anyone with a modicum of understanding of Ulster politics will know that privately it will be made clear to Davey Cameron that the ‘panel’ (or other mechanism) to review the controversial parade will now be required. We can also be sure that such a (DUP inspired) ‘panel’ will decide that Orangemen will get their way to complete their parade in North Belfast. It is difficult to think of a more inflammable scenario, not only will ‘loyalists’ be delighted but the various Republican ‘dissers’ groups may well have their recruitment officers working overtime to deal with the surge in applications as the ‘Orange card’ is replayed by a Tory government.

If anyone thinks the British government is not stupid enough to risk upsetting the political stability in Ireland, just take a look at what is happening in Iraq or at the boats struggling to cross the Mediterranean.

Of course none of these Irish concerns have even entered the political debate in Britain(so far), nor have any concerns regarding the implications of Britain leaving the EU and taking Green Field Number 4 with it, nor have the implications of “protecting UK borders”, as the DUP puts it, in its election manifesto. (Any border posts springing up as a result of Britain’s exit from the EU, may well need some sort of “protection” for her Majesty’s staff and as history tells us that type of imposition does not does not tend to go down well with the locals in border areas.)

The British of course will put the interests of their country first and so should we in Ireland by pushing the case for a United country, not only for cultural and social reasons but also to avoid Ulster’s involvement in dangerous British political horse-trading and because, whatever the right and wrongs of British attitudes to the EU and military intervention, the views the British hold on these matters are markedly different from our own.

Madness in May part 3 – The Union may be a little shakier

Part 3 of Faha’s series continues. I’d also recommend a read of this article here from The Detail which tells us what we all know numbers-wise but has some interesting analysis and terrific graphics as well as some home truths for the Unionist parties, specially on the day they trooped through the lobbies opposing gay marriage. (incidentally where were the SDLP?) – BD

Nationalist Constituencies- The Safe Seats  

This review covers the 4 nationalist seats where the outcome is not expected to change compared to the 2010 election.

West Tyrone:

Pat Doherty should easily win this seat for SF. The only point of interest here will be the proportion of the vote that the SDLP, UUP and DUP receive and whether there is any change in the relative strength of the vote among these parties.

Mid Ulster:

Francie Molloy should easily win this seat for SF. The only thing to watch here is to see if the SDLP can increase their vote and the relative strength of the unionist parties.

West Belfast:

Paul Maskey will easily win this seat for SF. However, the vote in this constituency is very important because of the Assembly implications. The total unionist vote was 16% in the 2014 council elections and based on that percentage the DUP would win an Assembly seat at the expense of SF. The SF vote declined by 6000 compared to the 2011 Assembly election while the unionist vote increased by 800. The total nationalist vote was down by almost 6000 indicating that there must be significant dissatisfaction among traditional SF voters who stayed home in large numbers. Since the total SF percentage was only 55.9% SF would lose one of their 5 Assembly seats (57.2% equals 4 quotas). Since the DUP would win one the final seat would be won by either the SDLP or PBPA. So the Westminster vote has significant implications for the 2016 Assembly election.

South Down:

Margaret Ritchie will easily win this seat for the SDLP. The vote totals will have implications for the Assembly election. The DUP polled only slightly above UKIP in the 2014 council elections. Since then there have been moves to close wards at Downe Hospital, threatening a future possible hospital closure. This is occurring under the DUP Health Minister Jim Wells. Follow the DUP vote here to see if the DUP Assembly seat could be lost to either UKIP or the SDLP.

Madness in May Part 2 – Is the Union still safe?

Part two of Faha’s analysis for the May elections. For me Upper Bann and North Belfast may provide some of the most interesting counts this time around. BD

This review covers the 5 unionist seats where there is a possibility that the incumbent could lose the election. I will discuss them in the order of likelihood that there could be a change.

East Belfast

This is the election that is receiving the most publicity in Northern Ireland. If it were not for the unionist electoral pact in Belfast East it could be a close election. However, with the DUP-UUP electoral pact and the fact that the TUV, PUP and UKIP have all declined to stand in order to bolster the DUP vote, there is no possibility that Naomi Long can win this election. In the 2014 council elections the DUP vote was 3500 higher than the Alliance vote. All the other unionist parties that will not be standing in this election received 10600 votes. The Alliance party received 6510 votes in 2014. Perhaps Alliance could add another 1000 from NI21 voters and a few Green tactical voters. Perhaps up to 500 tactical nationalist voters. That would bring the Alliance vote up to 8000. Not all of the 5093 UUP voters will vote DUP since some will vote Alliance and some will stay home. The transfer pattern from the 2014 council election indicates that less than 1000 would vote Alliance. Even with this scenario the Alliance vote would not equal the 2014 DUP council vote. That is before even taking into account the over 5000 TUV, UKIP and PUP voters of whom most will vote DUP. Gavin Robinson should win this election.

Upper Bann

David Simpson is still likely to win this election but there is a possibility of a UUP upset victory. In the 2014 council elections the total UUP vote was 1479 less than the DUP vote. The TUV, UKIP and the PUP are not standing and those parties received over 3500 votes. However, the transfer pattern reveals that the DUP may be no more likely to receive these votes than the UUP and some of these voters may stay home. Jo-Anne Dobson also stands to receive the majority of the 632 NI21 votes and perhaps a few Alliance votes so her vote total may be less than 1000 behind the DUP. The UUP are aware of how close this election could be and will be putting all their effort in to winning. Theoretically, SF should also be in this competition. However, the SF vote declined by 2700 compared to the 2011 Assembly election while the SDLP vote has remained steady. This indicates a trend of increasing nationalist apathy. With over 60% of potential nationalist voters not even bothering to vote in 2014 it is difficult to imagine what would motivate them to vote in this election. This election is basically a 2 way contest between the UUP and DUP, with the DUP having a slight edge and SF out of the running due to nationalist voter apathy.

South Antrim

This is another seat where the UUP will make a serious effort to defeat the DUP incumbent Willie McCrea. This is a constituency with increasing unionist voter apathy as the DUP vote declined by 3000 in 2014 compared to 2010 and the UUP vote declined by 3700. The Alliance Party also lost 1/3 of their 2011 Assembly vote in 2014. The 2014 vote may not accurately reflect the 2014 results since the TUV did not stand in the Dunsilly and Airport DEA’s. It is unclear who those TUV voters voted for in those DEA’s. The UUP was 1900 votes behind the DUP in 2014 but there were almost 1000 NI21 votes and most of those will go to the UUP. Danny Kinahan could pick up some tactical Alliance votes. Similar to Upper Bann, the UUP have approximately a 1000 voter deficit to overcome.

East Antrim

Many will be surprised that this constituency is considered competitive. However, if you look at the 2014 council election results the UUP vote was only 1400 less than the DUP vote. NI21 received over 800 votes and if the UUP candidate Roy Beggs receives 600 of those the deficit would only be 800 votes. The 2014 council results point to a very close election between the UUP and DUP. This is an election that the UUP should be contesting as seriously as Upper Bann and South Antrim. It is unclear if they are doing so as it appears to be under the radar as to how close this election could be.

North Belfast

You will notice in the demographics that the Catholic and Protestant voting age population are equal in 2015. In normal circumstances this would indicate a very close election between the DUP and SF. The UUP-DUP electoral pact has changed the calculations and there is very low possibility that SF will win this seat. Nigel Dodds is the only unionist candidate. Even the Conservative Party (who are contesting 16 Northern Ireland constituencies) declined to stand a candidate and decided to join the unionist pact along with every other unionist party. The nationalist vote will be divided among SF and the SDLP and the Workers Party and Fra Hughes will siphon away small numbers of nationalist voters. The combined nationalist vote was 15000 in the 2014 council elections and the combined unionist vote was 18600 so it is inconceivable that Nigel Dodds will be defeated in 2015. There is also a large degree of nationalist voter apathy in this constituency. The Conservative Party is supporting the unionist electoral pact in Belfast North and Fermanagh South Tyrone, the only 2 constituencies where they are not standing a candidate. This may have implications for the stability of the Assembly since clearly the Conservatives are not a neutral party and are attempting to defeat SF here and in Fermanagh South Tyrone. SF has already publicly commented on this.

Madness in May, part 1- The Union is Safe!

“Lots of people go mad in January. Not as many as in May, of course.” – Karen Joy Fowler

Guest Blog by Faha. Part one of a four part series

“Only three weeks to go folks until the ultimate sectarian headcount. The last of the FPP races outside the horseracing world.

Faha has been crunching the numbers with his usual aplomb and his post is below as promised. I’m popping in a few figures of my own below to stir the debate and I look forward to the usual excellent quality of your thoughts and comments” Bangordub

This first review of the Westminster election will cover the unionist seats where the outcome is not expected to change compared to 2010. I have included data on the demographics of the electorate within each constituency based on the 2011 census, adding in new voters who are now 18 years of age and subtracting voters who have died based on Northern Ireland mortality statistics since 2011.

North Down:

There is no doubt that Sylvia Hermon will win this seat overwhelmingly. She received 63% of the vote in 2010. The hard line unionist vote will be divided among the DUP, TUV and UKIP so there is no possibility that she could lose. It is significant that the DUP vote collapsed from 12412 in the 2011 Assembly election to only 7730 in the 2014 council elections. The UUP have declined to stand a candidate. Is this an indication that the UUP is hoping she will return to the UUP?

Strangford:

Jim Shannon should easily win here. Of concern for the DUP is the over 4000 drop in the DUP council vote since the previous Westminster and Assembly elections. Watch the TUV and UKIP vote here to see if one of the 3 DUP Assembly seats are at risk in 2016.The Alliance 2014 council vote was down significantly from the 2011 Assembly election and the vote in this election could have implications for their Assembly seat. Can the combined SDLP and SF vote come near an Assembly quota?

Lagan Valley:

Jeffrey Donaldson should easily win this seat. Of concern for the DUP is the over 4000 vote decline in 2014 since the 2011 Assembly election. The Alliance vote has also dropped by almost 1500 since 2011. The TUV could be in contention for an Assembly seat here depending on their vote as the DUP vote in 2014 was exactly 3 quotas, indicating that one of their Assembly seats is in jeopardy.

North Antrim:

Ian Paisley should easily win here. It is interesting that Jim Allister did not stand here and Timothy Gaston is the TUV candidate. The reason for this may be to raise his profile as a 2^nd TUV Assembly candidate in 2016. You will note that the DUP vote collapsed by 6000 compared to the 2010 and 2011 elections, indicating there is significant dissatisfaction with the DUP among traditional DUP voters. The TUV have noticed this and may be hoping for a 2^nd Assembly seat in 2016.

East Derry:

Gregory Campbell should easily win this seat. What is surprising here is that UKIP and especially the TUV decided not to contest this seat. The DUP vote has declined by over 4,000 compared to the 2011 Assembly election and their 2014 council vote was less than 2 Assembly quotas. The TUV received 9% and the PUP + UKIP were an additional 4% indicating that the TUV could take one of the DUP Assembly seats in 2016. However, by declining to stand in 2015 it will be difficult for the TUV to evaluate their prospects for 2016.