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Monthly Archives: February 2017

2017 Assembly Election – Faha’s view Part 2

16 Thursday Feb 2017

Posted by bangordub in Uncategorized

≈ 33 Comments


This is the second part of my series on the constituency profiles for the March Assembly election. I will cover the 9 Belfast area constituencies.

In the previous week there has been one major political development. That is the public statement by the UUP leader Michael Nesbitt that he would give his 2nd preference to the voting.jpgSDLP after voting for the UUP 1st preference. He also stated that UUP voters should give their lower preferences to whichever candidates would be best for their constituency. His statements attracted much attention, comments and criticism. The criticism even came from within his own party. These are the actual 2nd preferences for voters as indicated in the recent Lucid Talk poll.

faha-2017-b

 

Michael Nesbitt is essentially following the preferences of UUP voters. Only 6% will give the DUP a 2nd preference and only 37% to any unionist party. Indeed, half of UUP voters would give the SDLP or Alliance Party their 2nd preferences. The transfer pattern for DUP and TUV voters are similar to recent elections. A significant change from 2011 is that no Alliance voters are willing to give the DUP a 2nd preference. Similar to UUP voters, SDLP voters are now much more willing to give cross community transfers to the UUP. Although 31% of SF voters claim they have no 2nd preference this is unlikely to occur in the actual election since most SF voters do have 2nd preferences. Although much publicity has been given to 2nd preferences it will actually have little influence in most constituencies outside of the Belfast area. In the 9 constituencies that I covered in the past week this is what one would expect. SF 2nd preferences will not matter in 8 constituencies. This is because SF is attempting to win 3 seats in 4, 2 seats in 4 and one seat in North Antrim. The only conceivably constituency where SF transfers could come into play would be East Derry, where the 2nd SF candidate could be eliminated and there would be a SF surplus. Similarly, the SDLP will have a surplus only in Newry and Armagh and the main obstacle for SF in winning 3 seats there is the low nationalist turnout. The UUP transfers will matter only in Foyle and possibly Upper Bann. This is because the UUP will be in the last count trying to elect one in every other constituency. The UUP transfers in Upper Bann (if they occur) could elect the SDLP and defeat SF. In Foyle, the lack of UUP transfers to the DUP could defeat the DUP and elect PBP.

Lucid Talk also did a sub tracker poll this past week where they asked the voters who voted in their January poll if they had changed who they would vote for. Lucid Talk determined that 9% of voters had changed their choice to a different party. The net effect compared to their January poll was approximately

Alliance    +1

Green       +0.5

PBP           +1.5

DUP           -2

SF              -1.5

It appears that SF is losing votes to PBP and there has been more losses for the DUP compared to the previous drop of 3.3% from the 2016 Assembly election. In practical terms the shift to PBP overestimates their increase because they are only competing in 6 constituencies. Since at most half of their potential electorate is in those 6 then their voters in the other 12 would choose other candidates or not vote.

I will attempt to take into account 2nd preferences in my analysis.

 

                                

                               NORTH BELFAST

All usual residents Catholic Protestant and Other Christian (including Christian related) Other religions None
81,477 38,342 37,864 849 4,422
  47.06% 46.47% 1.04% 5.43%

 

 

New Quota      6,096

EU Referendum Turnout   39,972 (+3,424)

Remain        50.4%

Leave           49.6%

I believe North Belfast will elect 2 SF, 1 SDLP and 2 DUP. I came to this conclusion by looking at the final count in the 2016 election. In the final count these were the totals for the candidates

DUP

5,909

5,286

4,979

SF

5,225 (5,345)

4,911

SDLP

4,847

Alliance

3,836

The SF vote underestimates what would be their actual final total in 2017 since Gerry Kelly had 120 of his surplus transfer to candidates other than SF. Both the DUP and SF have good balancing. In 2017 the quota is higher at 6,096 so no candidates would be elected until the Alliance candidate is eliminated and their transfers distributed. Since Alliance in 2016 was not eliminated until the last count we do not know where their transfers would go but there are clues from the 2011 election. IN 2011 the 2 SF and 1 SDLP candidates were already elected at the point where the Alliance candidate was eliminated and the Alliance transfers were DUP 20%, UUP 25%, nontransferable 55%. So 55% of Alliance voters were unwilling to give ANY preference to the DUP or UUP. Those 55% would be Alliance voters from a nationalist background who would have given preferences to the SDLP or SF. What we do not know is, of the 45% who did give a preference to the DUP or UUP, how many would have ranked the SDLP above the DUP or UUP. I estimate 10% would have given the SDLP a higher preference than the DUP or UUP. It could be a little higher, it could be a little lower. How was 2016 any different than 2011? Since 2011 there were the flag protests in Belfast and the Alliance Party was the subject of verbal and physical attacks from hardline unionism, including the DUP. We do not know how this exactly affected Alliance transfers to the DUP but we do have a clue from South Belfast. In 2016 at stage 11, the Alliance candidate Paula Bradshaw, had a surplus. 80% of that surplus went to the SDLP and Greens (almost equally), 15% went to the UUP and 5% to the DUP. In 2017 Alliance voters would be even less inclined to give the DUP any preference due to the pro Brexit position of the DUP and the RHI scandal. If this were 2011 we would expect that 2,500 of the Alliance voters would transfer to the SDLP (most likely) with a few to SF. Another 1,300 would have transferred to the UUP or DUP. The SDLP will easily receive the 1,250 Alliance transfers it needs to reach a quota and will likely have a surplus. Of the additional 1,250 Alliance transfers that are going in the direction of the SDLP or SF how many will give SF a preference? Since the Gerry Kelly vote would really be 5,345, even if only 800 give SF a preference then both SF candidates would be in the range of 5,400 to 5,700. It should be noted that the final Alliance vote of 3,836 includes almost 900 transfers from PBP, Greens, etc. who would likely give SF some preference. I doubt that more than 200 to 300 Alliance transfers will give any preference to the DUP. That is enough to put one candidate at a quota but the other 2 would be at 5,300 and 5,100 with the latter too far behind SF to be elected. My calculation does not take into account that the Lucid Talk poll indicated that some UUP voters this year are less willing to give any preference to the DUP so the actual DUP totals would be less on the final count. In 2016 the DUP received 60% of UUP transfers and it could be much less than 50% in 2017. Of course, I am not assuming any increase in nationalist turnout while the Lucid Talk poll does indicate an increased nationalist, Green and Alliance turnout. The DUP can only elect 2 in North Belfast since they will be starved for transfers from the Alliance Party and to a lesser extent the UUP.

 

 

                                      

 

 

                                     WEST BELFAST

 

All usual residents Catholic Protestant and Other Christian (including Christian related) Other religions None
73,575 59,198 12,230 447 1,700
  80.46% 16.62% 0.61% 2.31%

 

 

New Quota      6,047

EU Referendum Turnout   31,191 (-5,059)

Remain        74%

Leave           26%

There will definitely be 3 SF and 1 PBP elected here. Whether the SDLP or SF win the 5th will be dependent on whether or not Alex Attwood is ahead of the DUP candidate in the next to last count. In 2016 the SDLP (4,430) was 90 votes ahead of the DUP in the final count and won the final seat. However, in 2017 there are only 5 seats so there is no possibility of a DUP win. It would seem that the SDLP would receive more than enough unionist transfers to win the 5th seat. SF has good balancing but the SDLP would only need 800 unionist transfers out of the total unionist vote of 4,340 to win the last seat. However, in 2017 this scenario may not occur. That is because the SDLP final vote includes an estimated 350 transfer votes from SF and the PBP. The SF transfers will not exist and PBP have fewer transfers available due to the higher quota. So the SDLP needs either more 1st preference votes or fewer DUP final votes that add up to 350. The SDLP can only win if they are ahead of the DUP in the next to final count. Now there will be fewer UUP, Alliance and Green transfers to the DUP this year (551 in 2016) so the DUP vote total will be less and some of those will transfer to the SDLP. It is not clear whether that 350 vote gap can be closed. Unionist turnout could be lower since there is no hope of a unionist seat with the higher quota. The 5th seat will come down to SF or the SDLP and will entirely depend on whether the SDLP are ahead of the DUP in the next to last count.

                                                       SOUTH BELFAST                                                                            

All usual residents Catholic Protestant and Other Christian (including Christian related) Other religions None
93,699 41,615 41,353 2,583 8,148
  44.41% 44.13% 2.76% 8.70%

 

 

New Quota      6,121

EU Referendum Turnout   44,556 (+7,860)

Remain        69.5%

Leave           30.5%

I believe South Belfast will elect 1 SF, 1 SDLP, 1 Alliance, 1 Green and 1 DUP. I come to this conclusion by looking at the stage 9 count in the 2016 election which was as follows:

SF                                     5,247 (5,400)

SDLP (Hanna)                 4,934

SDLP (McKinney)           3,057

Alliance                           5,729

Green                              4,524

UUP                                 3,272

DUP (Little-Pengelly)     5,073

DUP (Stalford)                4,368

The new quota is 6,121 so no one would be elected at that point. I estimate the actual SF vote at 5,400 since the Labour candidate with almost 1,000 votes was eliminated in the previous count but SF did not receive any of the potential transfers since the SF candidate had already reached a quota. Some of the Labour transfers would go to SF in 2017. The SDLP

candidate with 3,057 would then be eliminated and Hanna would be elected with a large surplus. Eventually her 3rd and lower preferences would come into play. However, Hanna only needs 1,200 of McKinney’s vote to reach quota and the other 1,850 votes would go to SF, Alliance and Green. SF would need 700 of those and Alliance only 400 so both would be elected. The Green candidate would then be at approximately 5,200. At this point the UUP would be eliminated and approximately 3,300 votes would be transferred. The Lucid Talk poll indicates that many UUP voters will now give their 2nd preferences to Alliance, Green and the SDLP instead of the DUP. The Green candidate only need 900 of those to reach a quota (27%) which will almost certainly occur. Even if all of the other 2,400 transfer to the DUP the 2nd DUP candidate would be over 400 votes short of a quota. The Green candidate would win even with only 700 transfers (20%). The DUP have the same problem here as in North Belfast where they are starved for transfers from non unionist parties and to some extent the UUP. There is an alternative scenario where the Alliance Party, or less likely the 2nd SDLP, could win the 5th seat. This was the vote totals at stage 8.

SF                                     5,247 (5,400)

SDLP (Hanna)                 4,738

SDLP (McKinney)           2,964

Alliance (Bradshaw)      3,570

Alliance (Morrow)         2,837

Green                               4,289

UUP                                  3,213

DUP (Little-Pengelly)    5,049

DUP (Stalford)               4,355

Both Morrow and McKinney are slightly behind the UUP. If the Alliance vote was more evenly balanced (and with 500 more 1st preference Alliance votes with a higher turnout) and the Alliance vote was higher than the SDLP then McKinney would be eliminated. After his transfers elected Hanna there would still be a surplus of 1,500 votes that would go to SF, the 2 Alliance and 1 Green candidates. SF would be close to a quota and there would be only 800 votes to transfer to Alliance and Green. When the UUP is eliminated then there would be 3,200 votes transferred. The Lucid Talk poll indicates that over 2,000 would go to the SDLP and Alliance with a few to the Greens. Since that poll indicates a much stronger 2nd preference for Alliance (23.7%) than Green (3.2%) then it is possible that both Alliance candidates could be ahead of the Green Party. The Greens still have the edge but a significant increase in Alliance 1st preferences and the willingness of UUP voters to transfer much more heavily to Alliance than the Greens could give Alliance 2. This is much less likely than the first scenario I presented. A similar scenario could occur with the SDLP. At stage 9 the 2nd SDLP was only 215 votes behind the UUP and if the 2nd SDLP were ahead of the UUP then the UUP candidate would be eliminated and many of the UUP transfers would end up with the SDLP candidates. There were also almost 8,000 additional pro EU voters who voted in the Brexit referendum and if these vote in any significant number the DUP cannot possibly win 2 seats.

 

                                             EAST BELFAST

 

All usual residents Catholic Protestant and Other Christian (including Christian related) Other religions None
74,979 9,571 57,695 1,067 6,646
  12.76% 76.95% 1.42% 8.86%

 

New Quota      6,196

EU Referendum Turnout   42,646 (+5,490)

Remain        49%

Leave           51%

The result in East Belfast should be 2 DUP, 1 UUP and 1 Alliance. Alliance is short of 2 quotas but will receive enough Green and nationalist transfers to elect 2. It appears that with perfect balancing the DUP could edge out the UUP this will not occur. The UUP are at 11.1% but there is almost a 6% surplus of nationalist and Green potential transfers after 2 alliance are elected. There is also 13% for the smaller unionist parties that will transfer and the UUP received the equivalent of 4% in transfers from those parties in 2016.

                                              

 

 

                                       EAST ANTRIM

All usual residents Catholic Protestant and Other Christian (including Christian related) Other religions None
72,580 14,952 51,646 738 5,244
  20.60% 71.16% 1.02% 7.23%
 

 

       

 

New Quota      5,402

EU Referendum Turnout   41,545 (+9,153)

Remain        45%

Leave           55%

For East Antrim I looked at the stage 10 count to determine who will win the 5 seats. The new quota is 5,402.

Alliance                    5,234

UUP (Beggs)            4,708 (4,800)

UUP (Stewart)       2,622

DUP (Hilditch)      4,631 (5,400)

DUP (Lyons)          4,631 (5,000)

DUP (Ross)            3,108

UKIP (Jordan)        2,986

SF                            3,470

The numbers in parenthesis are the actual total for a 2017 election due to a higher quota and in 2016 these candidates had their surplus transferred. Stewart of the UUP would be eliminated and enough of his votes would transfer to Alliance (168 needed) to reach a quota. Most of the remainder would go to Beggs of the UUP and he would be elected. There would still be another 1,700 available for eventual transfer to the DUP or UKIP. In 2016 they did transfer 33% to DUP and 18% to UKIP with almost 50% not transferring. UKIP would be at 3,300 but there would be only 600 votes to transfer to the remaining 2 DUP candidates. Lyons could be at or just below a quota but Ross would also be at approximately 3,300. Either the DUP or UKIP would win the 5th seat on the others transfers most likely reaching a quota. SF would be 2,000 votes short of a quota. This is where UKIP has their best chance for a seat and poor balancing by DUP or fewer voters willing to transfer to the DUP could result in a UKIP win. Nationalist turnout is very low here but there were over 9,000 more voters who voted in Brexit and an estimated 4,000 were nationalist voters. If 2,500 of those vote in 2017 there would be a nationalist seat here. The difficulty for the SDLP winning here is that they need an additional 1,000 1st preference votes in order to be ahead of the 2nd Alliance candidate, whose transfers would put them ahead of SF.

 

 

 

 

                                                SOUTH ANTRIM

All usual residents Catholic Protestant and Other Christian (including Christian related) Other religions None
77,818 24,699 47,700 704 4,715
  31.74% 61.30% 0.90% 6.06%

 

 

 

New Quota      5,856

EU Referendum Turnout   43,553 (+8,430)

Remain        49.5%

Leave           50.5%

The DUP should elect 2 as their total vote is over 2 quotas. Even with a decline to less than 33.33% they would receive enough transfers from the smaller unionist parties to elect 2. The UUP are above 1 quota and will elect one. There will be 2 non unionist seats. Or will there be? At stage 5 in 2016 the vote was

SF               4,739

SDLP          3,547

Alliance     3,764

UUP            4,452

UUP            4,031

DUP            5,067

DUP            5,036

DUP            4,212

At the next stage in 2016 the SDLP was eliminated because they were 217 votes behind Alliance. If the SDLP end up with more votes than Alliance then Alliance would be eliminated and the SDLP would win a seat on transfers. However, there would not be enough Alliance transfers to elect SF also. A 2nd UUP would be elected on Alliance transfers and the DUP surplus. Nationalist turnout is very low here, 37% versus unionist 52%. An increase in nationalist turnout to 45% would add another 2,000 nationalist votes which would be more than enough to elect both the SDLP and SF. An additional 8,430 voters did vote in the Brexit referendum and it appears from that vote that at least 5,000 were nationalist voters.

                                                  LAGAN VALLEY

All usual residents Catholic Protestant and Other Christian (including Christian related) Other religions None
80,861 15,331 59,343 818 5,369
  18.96% 73.39% 1.01% 6.64%

 

 

 

New Quota      6,476

EU Referendum Turnout   48,414 (+9,572)

Remain        47%

Leave           53%

This is a difficult constituency to predict. From the 2016 vote it appears there would be 3 DUP elected since the DUP at 47.2% are close enough to 3 quotas to elect all 3 on transfers from the smaller unionist parties. The UUP would elect one and Alliance one. This was the stage 6 count in 2016

SDLP                           4,012

Alliance                      4,994

UUP                            5,004

UUP                            4,737

DUP                            5,635

DUP                           4,986

DUP                           4,518

DUP                           4,309

The SDLP were eliminated and in 2017 they have enough transfers to elect Alliance and one UUP. In 2016, 60% of SDLP transfers were eventually nontransferable to Alliance or the UUP. Lucid Talk indicates a greater willingness for SDLP voters to give the UUP a preference in 2017. However, there may not enough to elect 2 UUP. The lowest DUP candidate would then be eliminated and the total DUP vote is just shy of 3 quotas but certainly ahead of the 2nd UUP. The major difficulty in predicting 2017 is that there were 9,572 additional voters who voted in the Brexit referendum and from the results it appears they were all nationalist, Alliance, Green and a few pro EU UUP voters. Half were nationalist voters and nationalist turnout for Brexit was almost twice what it was for the Assembly election.  If only 3,600 of those vote in 2017 then everyone’s quota increases by 600 (new quota 7,100). If Alliance are then at 6,500 and the SDLP at 6,000 then the 2nd UUP is eliminated and Alliance and possibly the SDLP are elected on transfers. The SDLP 1st preference vote may be helped by two factors. The former Alliance MLA Seamus Close endorsed and signed Pat Catney’s nomination papers. There are also 2 Alliance councilors on the Lisburn Castlereagh council who recently resigned from the Alliance Party and endorsed Pat Catney. Michael Nesbitt the leader of the UUP has also publicly stated that he will give his own 2nd preference to the SDLP.

 

                                                 STRANGFORD

All usual residents Catholic Protestant and Other Christian (including Christian related) Other religions None
72,001 12,496 53,673 684 5,148
  17.36% 74.54% 0.95% 7.15%

 

 

 

New Quota      5,440

EU Referendum Turnout   42,110 (+9,484)

Remain        44%

Leave           56%

In 2016 the final count was:

SDLP                            3,338

Alliance                       4,662 (4,624)

UUP (Nesbitt)            4,673

UUP (Smith)               3,958 (3,248)

DUP (Bell)                   4,663 (5,164)

DUP (Hamilton)         4,663 (4,983)

DUP (McIlveen)         4,663

The numbers in parenthesis represent what the actual totals would be with the higher quota. 2 DUP candidates had a significant surplus that transferred to the UUP. Smith of the UUP would be slightly behind the SDLP and his transfers (777) would elect Nesbitt. There would still be 2,471 UUP votes available to transfer and it is likely that Alliance would receive the 800 needed for a quota. Based on previous elections the SDLP would receive enough to reach 3,600 but would be far short of a quota. So there would be 3 DUP, 1 UUP and 1 Alliance elected. This is another constituency where the Brexit vote was much higher than the Assembly vote. An additional 9,500 voters voted in the Brexit referendum and it appears that they were mainly nationalist, Alliance, Green and pro EU UUP voters. At least 4,000 appear to be nationalist voters. Nationalist turnout was only 35% for the Assembly election. If 3,000 of those Brexit voters vote in 2017 the quota would be close to 6,000. The 1st scenario above where the 2nd UUP candidate is eliminated would then come into play but Alliance could already be at a quota with the additional voters. The SDLP could be at 4,500 to 5,000 prior to the UUP transfers and would likely be ahead of the 3rd DUP after UUP transfers. The role of Jonathan Bell of the DUP in revealing the extent of the RHI scandal could affect the DUP vote. Since he is a candidate he will be a constant reminder to voters of the RHI scandal. It is unlikely that many of his votes will transfer to the DUP. It is also possible that his allegations may result in fewer UUP transfers to the DUP. Michael Nesbitt has also publicly stated that he will give his next preference to the SDLP after the 2 UUP candidates. This is a shrewd move since if Joe Boyle is eliminated the bulk of the excess SDLP transfers could end up with the UUP after the Alliance candidate is elected and a 2nd UUP could be elected.

 

                                                     NORTH DOWN

All usual residents Catholic Protestant and Other Christian (including Christian related) Other religions None
72,633 9,420 55,164 870 7,179
  12.97% 75.95% 1.20% 9.88%

 

 

 

New Quota      5,372

EU Referendum Turnout   44,177 (+11,982)

Remain        52%

Leave           48%

North Down will elect 2 DUP, 1 UUP, 1 Alliance and 1 Green. The DUP vote is well above 2 quotas and even with a small decline in their vote would be above 2 quotas. The UUP are only 1% shy of a quota which they will receive on transfers from the smaller unionist parties. Alliance is at a quota and the Greens should reach a quota on SF, SDLP and Other transfers.

 

The final results will be strongly influenced by any change in turnout. If the exact same electorate votes that voted in the 2016 Assembly election then the worst case scenario for nationalist parties (SF, SDLP, PBP) is 34 seats with 47 unionist seats and 9 Alliance-Green. The electorate will be different in 2017. Lucid Talk has picked up increased interest among nationalist voters for this election and a slight decrease in interest among unionist voters. I estimate the unionist vote could be down by 5,000 due to disillusioned DUP voters who will stay home. That would bring the total vote down to 690,000. It is difficult to quantify how many more nationalist voters will vote this year. It is probably enough to increase the total vote to 700,000. I doubt the total vote will be anywhere near 800,000 which is what one would expect with all the Brexit voters voting this year. 750,000 is probably the maximum. However, even a decline of 5,000 unionist voters and an increase of 10,000 nationalist votes would have a profound effect on the outcome. There would then be 3 more additional nationalist seats, 1 more Green and 4 fewer unionist with a final result of 43 unionist, 37 nationalist and 10 Alliance-Green. If this were to occur then a government could be formed at Stormont if a few changes were made to the GFA. These would include:

Abolition of the Petition of Concern.

End community designation and cross community requirements for any votes.

Voluntary coalition with one First Minister elected.

No weighted majorities.

If these changes were made the Alliance and Green parties would hold the balance of power. Nationalist parties would have no objection to Stephen Agnew or Naomi Long as a First Minister. The DUP would object to both but would be unable to prevent their election since there would no longer be a unionist majority to do so.

The alternative is no government at Stormont and a return to direct rule. Since the Conservative Party will be in power at Westminster for a long time this would essentially be a return to unionist rule with no nationalist representation.

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2017 Assembly Election – Faha’s view

09 Thursday Feb 2017

Posted by bangordub in Uncategorized

≈ 52 Comments


Below is part one of Faha’s much anticipated analysis for the forthcoming Assembly elections – BD

Ballot Box

This is the first of my two part series on the constituencies for the March 2nd Assembly election. In this first series I will cover the 9 constituencies outside of the Belfast area. Here is some of the background I will go over prior to analyzing each constituency.

This chart shows the differential turnout between the Catholic and Protestant community background in the 2016 Assembly election. It is based on the 2016 constituency census data (extrapolated from the 2011 census) and the transfer pattern from nonsectarian parties. As you can see, with a few exceptions, most constituencies had a much lower turnout from the nationalist electorate compared to the unionist electorate. Overall nationalist turnout was 7% less than unionist turnout. If it had been equal to unionist turnout another 45,000 voters would have voted

2016 Assembly Election

2016-turnout-faha-2017

This chart shows the difference in turnout for each constituency comparing the May 2016 Assembly election with the June Brexit referendum. In every constituency (except West Belfast) there was an increase in voter turnout for the Brexit referendum.

It is estimated at 110,000 more voters (the number in the chart is 96,209 but since EU nationals could not vote in the Brexit vote the 110,000 is the actual change) voted in the Brexit referendum. From the results it appears that most of those additional voters were nationalist, Alliance, Green and pro EU UUP voters. The pre-election  Lucid Talk poll, which predicted the final result to within 1%, indicated that 85% of nationalist, Alliance and Green voters were against Brexit and 85% of unionist voters were pro Brexit.

These Brexit results indicate that if an Assembly election had been held the same day then the   unionist parties would have received 44% of the vote and nationalist, Alliance and Green parties would have received 56% of the vote.

2016 Brexit Referendum

Faha 2017 Brexit.JPG

This chart shows the Lucid Talk polls from April 2016 and January 2017. I compared the April 2016 poll with the January 2017 poll and calculated the difference in the 3rd column. The last column indicates the difference between the January 2017 poll and the actual Assembly results from 2016. The Lucid Talk poll was very accurate in predicting the overall total vote for nationalist parties, unionist parties and nonsectarian parties. It underestimated the vote for the DUP and overestimated the vote for the UUP, Alliance and smaller unionist parties. Part of the underestimate for the DUP and overestimate for the smaller unionist parties is due to the fact that the smaller unionist parties did not compete in all constituencies. Thus, some of their voters choose the DUP instead by default. Keep in mind that the poll has a +/- accuracy of 3% so it compares very favourably with the actual results.

The January 2017 poll shows little change from the April 2016 poll. The only party change that may be statistically significant is the increase for PBP and possibly the decline for the UUP. All the other changes are too small to determine if they are actually real. However, the overall 3.76% decline for unionist parties is significant. Statistically, the real decline could be anywhere from only 0.76% to as high as 6.76%.

The January 2017 poll did note a few trends. Almost half mentioned the Health Service and RHI as important issues followed by Education, Equality and the Economy. Almost ¼ mentioned Brexit as an important issue followed by Irish Language and Irish Unity. It was also noted that a “large” number of DUP voters in 2016 said they would vote for other parties (primarily UUP) in this election. However, the actual poll results do not seem to indicate this but it could be due to DUP oversampling in this poll. Responses to questions on transfers showed that SDLP and UUP voters are now more likely to give 2nd preferences to each other. The most significant change is that UUP voters are more likely to give their 2nd preference to Alliance and the SDLP rather than the DUP. This is how UUP voters indicated their 2nd preference:

SDLP                      25.3%

Alliance                 23.7%

DUP                          5.8%

TUV                        19.0%

Other Unionist     11.6%

SF                              1.6%

PBP                           2.6%

Green                       3.2%

That trend could have a profound impact on the election prospects for DUP candidates. Unionist voters do not appear to have noticed any increased interest in voting in this election but nationalist voters have noticed increased interest among family, friend and coworkers in voting in 2017. This sounds plausible since 2016 unionist nonvoters have no reason to vote in this election. Brexit was passed in Westminster this week and the RHI scandal would certainly not increase unionist turnout for the DUP. Nationalist and nonsectarian voters appear to be more likely to vote this year with impending Brexit and its impact on Northern Ireland a big issue.

There will be additional Lucid Talk polls on February 13 and February 27th will provide more insight on the state of the electorate.

faha-2017-lucid-talk

The following are the constituency profiles.

I have included the demographic data, 2016 Assembly results, the new quota with 5 seats and the Brexit vote.

FOYLE

All usual residents Catholic Protestant and Other Christian (including Christian related) Other religions None
79,679 59,941 17,644 641 1,453
  75.23% 22.14% 0.80% 1.82%

 

Total                39,702

Quota                6,617

EU Referendum Turnout   40,987 (+1,285)

Remain        78%

Leave           22%

 

Both the SDLP and SF should elect 2 on transfers since they are close to 2 quotas (33.3%). In 2016 Dr. McCloskey had 4,227 votes at the last count, almost 1,200 votes behind Eamonn McCann. Gary Middleton of the DUP was elected with 6,641 votes and had a surplus. However with the higher quota in 2017 he would barely be above the quota. He is likely to receive fewer transfers this time but should be close to a quota. There are only 2 scenarios in which Eamonn McCann could be elected. There could be a decline in unionist turnout or an increase in nationalist turnout. If nationalist turnout were to increase by 3,000 votes the quota would be 500 higher and the DUP would be 500 votes short of a quota and Eamonn McCann would be elected. There were 1,285 more voters who did vote in the EU referendum so this scenario is possible.

 

                                              EAST  DERRY

All usual residents Catholic Protestant and Other Christian (including Christian related) Other religions None
79,650 33,062 43,080 566 2,942
  41.51% 54.09% 0.71% 3.69%

 

New Quota          5,733

EU Referendum Turnout   40,563 (+6,164)

Remain        52%

Leave           48%

The DUP should elect 2 here even with a decline in their 1st preference. There should also be 1 SDLP and 1 SF elected. If you look at the stage 9 count last year this is where the SDLP and SF vote was.

SDLP                             4,172

SF (Archibald)             4,139

SF (O’Hoisin)               3,532

Since the SDLP was ahead of both SF candidates the SDLP candidate will be elected. Since the total nationalist vote equaled 11,843 and 2 quotas is 11,466 both SF and the SDLP should elect one. The only complication factor this time is that there is essentially a 2nd SDLP candidate as the current SDLP MLA, Gerard Mullan, has decided to stand as an independent. John Dallat’s 1st preference vote was 2,000 votes higher in 2011 compared to Gerard Mullan in 2016 so the latter will likely be eliminated. The 5th seat will come down to the UUP and Claire Sugden. Claire Sugden seemed unwilling to stand up to the DUP during the recent RHI debate at Stormont so this could hurt her chances for receiving transfers from Alliance or nationalist voters. If those additional 6,164 Brexit voters turn out there could be significant surplus of nationalist voters who will determine whether the UUP or Claire Sugden wins the 5th seat.

The following 3 constituencies I group together because they all have one demographic in common. The Protestant voting age population is in the 31% or lower range which is less than 2 quotas (33.33%).

 

 

                                           WEST TYRONE

All usual residents Catholic Protestant and Other Christian (including Christian related) Other religions None
71,747 48,604 21,926 286 931
  67.74% 30.56% 0.40% 1.30%

 

New Quota        6,468

EU Referendum Turnout   40,039 (+1,252)

Remain        67%                                              

Leave           33%

I included a former SF member candidate in the SF total and 2 former SDLP councilor candidates in the SDLP total since these 3 candidates left their parties just prior to the election. The SDLP should elect one here since even in the 2015 Westminster election their vote was 16.67%. SF would need to be very close to 50% to elect 3. They are short by almost 6% but there are some possible transfers from the 5.76% nonsectarian voters (Alliance, Green, others). The main problem for SF here is the low nationalist turnout which was 52% in 2016 versus 65% for the unionist electorate. Since this is a border constituency Brexit will be a big issue here. The prospect of a hard border with Donegal could increase nationalist turnout which could potentially elect a 3rd SF MLA. If the nationalist turnout reaches 60% there will be 3 SF elected otherwise there will be 1 UUP and 1 DUP elected with only 2 SF.

                                                    MID ULSTER

All usual residents Catholic Protestant and Other Christian (including Christian related) Other religions None
76,858 51,112 24,033 358 1,355
  66.50% 31.27% 0.47% 1.76%

 

 

New Quota        6,791

EU Referendum Turnout   42,411 (+1,683)

Remain        60%                                              

Leave           40%

The SDLP should elect one here as they are just short of a quota but should receive enough Alliance and Green transfer to reach a quota. SF would be 2.5% short of the 50% they need to elect 3. Low nationalist turnout (50% versus 60% unionist) is all that is preventing SF from electing 3. In the 2011 Assembly election SF had 49.2% and the SDLP 14.7% and there was 3.3% for independent nationalist and 1% for Alliance. With the 2011 results SF would have elected 3 and the SDLP one with the DUP winning the 5th seat. Another 2,000 nationalist voters in 2017 is all that is needed for 3 SF. The presence of Michelle O’Neill as a candidate and new SF leader could be enough to bring out those additional 2,000 nationalist voters.

                                        NEWRY AND ARMAGH

All usual residents Catholic Protestant and Other Christian (including Christian related) Other religions None
88,081 58,598 26,966 522 1,995
  66.53% 30.62% 0.59% 2.26%

 

 

 

 

New Quota        7,953

EU Referendum Turnout   50,622 (+2,929)

Remain        63%                                              

Leave           37%

The SDLP should elect one here since they are above a quota. SF are further away from electing 3 here as they would need to increase their vote from the current 41% to over 45% to be close enough to elect 3 on transfers. Again, the problem for SF here is low nationalist turnout which is 11% less than unionist turnout. If nationalist turnout approaches 60% then SF will elect 3 here. If that occurs the DUP and UUP will be in a close battle for the final seat. Brexit should be a big issue here since obviously a hard border will affect this constituency in a significant way.

                                   FERMANAGH SOUTH TYRONE

 

All usual residents Catholic Protestant and Other Christian (including Christian related) Other religions None
81,074 46,746 31,962 532 1,834
  57.66% 39.42% 0.66% 2.26%

 

 

 

New Quota        7,863

EU Referendum Turnout   48,158 (+1,010)

Remain        59%                                              

Leave           41%

This constituency is one of the most difficult to predict for obvious reasons. Based on the 2016 vote there would be 2 DUP and 1 UUP elected with 2 SF. The 2016 vote showed that after transfers the nationalist electorate was 51% and the unionist electorate 49%. SF could not elect 3 since they would need all of the SDLP vote as well as those Alliance, Green and Other transfers that go to the SDLP to transfer through to SF. Starting with a base vote of 39.95% they are too far away from 50% to elect 3. The DUP were just short of 2 new quotas and the UUP would elect one on transfers. The nationalist turnout was a full 20% less than the unionist turnout. However, it is now 2017 and the RHI scandal is now major news with Arlene Foster of the DUP the main candidate here. How this will affect the unionist vote and overall vote is unknown. Brexit and the prospect of a hard border will also be an important issue here. The UUP MP here, Tom Elliot, voted in favour of Brexit in Westminster this past week.  One thing is certain over the years is that unionist voters are very reliable voters and will vote in every election so there will be 22,000 to 23,000 unionist votes. The question is how those votes will be distributed among the DUP and UUP. The Lucid Talk poll is indicating a shift from the DUP to the UUP. In the 2011 Assembly election the UUP received more than 3,000 1st preference votes compared to 2016. If 2,000 of those return to the UUP then the UUP candidate will be elected with Alliance and Green transfers. If it is 2,500 then even the transfers will not be needed. Whether the 2nd DUP will be elected will depend on balancing between Foster and Morrow and nationalist turnout. It will be very difficult for the DUP to balance their candidates here since they do not know how the RHI scandal will affect Arlene Foster’s 1st preference vote. Obviously they need to push the 1st preference vote in Arlene Fosters’ direction since her defeat would be a major defeat for the DUP. For SF there is a sweet spot for increasing nationalist turnout. If it increases to 52% to 54% then they will elect 3 on transfers. However, if it increases to 55% or more then this scenario favours the SDLP. That is because the 3rd unionist candidate would then be polling 10% or less and would be eliminated. Enough of their transfers would go to the SDLP to elect the SDLP candidate. If nationalist turnout is in the 52% to 53% range then the SDLP candidate would probably poll less than the 3rd unionist candidate and would be eliminated instead.

                                              UPPER BANN

 

All usual residents Catholic Protestant and Other Christian (including Christian related) Other religions None
92,513 40,880 46,748 809 4,076
  44.19% 50.53% 0.87% 4.41%

 

 

New Quota        7,614

EU Referendum Turnout   51,812 (+6,159)

Remain        47%                                              

Leave           53%

The combined SF-SDLP vote in the final count was 17,236 which is 2,000 votes over 2 quotas so there will be 2 nationalist MLA’s elected. O’Dowd of SF finished 167 votes ahead of Kelly of the SDLP but there were 1,260 Alliance and UUP voters who did not transfer to anyone. There will be 3 unionists elected but in 2016 the DUP were 2% short of 2 new quotas on their 1st preference vote. This has traditionally been a strong constituency for the UUP and any significant decline in the DUP vote could result in 2 UUP MLA’s elected. However, the Lucid Talk poll is not indicating such a dramatic shift. There were over 6,000 additional voters who voted in the Brexit referendum and it appears that nationalist turnout may have been close to unionist turnout. If those nationalist voters turn out for the Assembly election then 2 UUP could be elected with nationalist transfers.

                                                 SOUTH DOWN

All usual residents Catholic Protestant and Other Christian (including Christian related) Other religions None
84,986 58,906 23,152 477 2,451
  69.31% 27.24% 0.56% 2.88%

 

New Quota        6,846

EU Referendum Turnout   47,701 (+6,649)

Remain        67%                                              

Leave           33%

At the Stage 4 count in 2016 these were the party vote totals:

SF                   13,321

SDLP               14,957

DUP                  6,470

UUP                  5,567

The SDLP are 1,267 votes above 2 quotas and SF are 371 votes short of 2 quotas so 2 SF should be elected with SDLP transfers. Subsequent stage counts in 2016 only involved DUP and SF transfers which will not occur in 2017 due to the higher quota. The DUP is at risk of losing out to the UUP for the 1 unionist seat if their vote declines in this election. There were also an additional 6,649 voters who voted in the Brexit referendum and if significant number of these vote then the UUP should win on nationalist transfers.

 

                                            NORTH ANTRIM

All usual residents Catholic Protestant and Other Christian (including Christian related) Other religions None
86,546 24,618 57,871 644 3,413
  28.44% 66.87% 0.74% 3.94%

 

New Quota        6,833

EU Referendum Turnout   49,720 (+8,742)

Remain        38%                                              

Leave           62%

This constituency is straightforward. The TUV will elect one since they are above a quota. SF will elect one on SDLP transfers. The UUP 1st preference vote is almost 6% less than a quota but with unionist transfers (including TUV) as well as Alliance, Green and SDLP transfers the UUP candidate should be elected. Only 2 DUP will be elected. However, if the Brexit electorate was the electorate for this election then there would be 2 nationalist candidates elected, both SF and SDLP. In 2016 the nationalist turnout was only 36% and the unionist turnout 52%. In the Brexit referendum they appear to have been equal.

Obviously many of the 5th seats will be determined by which electorate votes in the election: the 2016 Assembly electorate or the 2016 Brexit referendum electorate.

 

 

 

 

 

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