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By Faha

LucidTalk conducted a poll in February 2024. Topics covered included party preference in an Assembly election, Brexit support and support for a United Ireland in a Border Poll. I will cover the results for a Border Poll and Brexit.

Potential voters were asked the question:

“If another UK EU Referendum took place today (equivalent to the 2016 UK EU Referendum) what way would you vote?”

Overall results were:

Rejoin the EU 62%

Stay out of the EU 35%

Undecided 3%

The actual vote in 2016 was 56% Remain in the EU and 44% Leave the EU.

There has been a marked decline in those who prefer Brexit, from 44% in the 2016 Referendum to 35% in 2024. There has been some churning among the 2 groups with 6% of Remain voters in 2016 now favouring staying out of the EU and 20% of leave voters now favouring rejoining the EU.

The results differ markedly by Constitutional Voting Block:

Nationalist/Republican – Neutral – Unionist

Rejoin the EU 94% 82% 23%

Stay out of EU 5% 17% 71%

Few unionist voters wish to rejoin the EU while nationalist/republican and Neutral parties voters overwhelmingly wish to rejoin the EU.

The breakdown by Religion is:

Catholic – Protestant – Other/None

Rejoin the EU 93% 33% 69%

Stay out of EU 6% 62% 23%

Catholics overwhelmingly wish to rejoin the EU. However, 33% of Protestants also wish to rejoin the EU. That 33% has implications for a Border Poll since the only likely path for Northern Ireland to rejoin the EU is through a Border Poll where the majority favour a United Ireland.

There were 2 questions on a Border Poll. The first question was:

If there were a referendum (Border Poll) on the constitutional position of Northern Ireland within the week- How would you vote?

The overall weighted results were:

For Northern Ireland to Remain part of the United Kingdom

49.3%

For Northern Ireland to Leave the United Kingdom and become part of a United Ireland:

39.3%

Undecided:

11.4%

The results differ markedly by Constitutional Voting Block:

Nationalist/Republican – Neutral – Unionist

Remain UK 4% 37% 96%

United Ireland 87% 26% 2%

Undecided 9% 36% 2%

No surprises here although the Neutral block has a high percentage of Undecided at 36%.

The breakdown by Religion is:

Catholic – Protestant – Other/None

Remain UK 8% 87% 45%

United Ireland 78% 5% 34%

Undecided 14% 8% 21%

What is significant is that 5% of Protestants would vote for a United Ireland and 8% are Undecided. These would be mainly Alliance, Green and SDLP voters.

There was a poll 20 to 25 years ago that asked a unique question about a United Ireland that was directed at Protestant voters and the results were:

United Ireland 2%

United Ireland acceptable 13%

United Ireland tolerable 25%

United Ireland unacceptable 60%

Even in that era 15% of Protestants were amenable to a United Ireland and this does not appear to have changed over the years.

The 2nd Border Poll question was NI-Border Aspiration-Do you have an aspiration or do you think there should be a United Ireland in 1 to 10 years or 11 to 20 years (or beyond) ?

The overall results are:

Eventual United Ireland 51.2 %

Remain in UK 43.6%

Undecided 5.2%

The results differ markedly by Constitutional Voting Block:

Nationalist/Republican – Neutral – Unionist

Eventual United Ireland 98% 62% 4%

Remain in UK 0% 19% 94%

Undecided 2% 19% 2%

There are several findings I wish to emphasize. If a Border Poll vote were held this week there are 13% of Nationalist/Republican voters who would vote to Remain in the UK or are Undecided. However, 11% of that 13% have an aspiration for an Eventual United Ireland and 0% wish to Remain in the UK. For those who are Neutral (mainly Alliance and Green voters) only 26% would currently vote for a United Ireland and 36% are Undecided. However, 62% of Neutral voters have an aspiration for an Eventual United Ireland. So essentially all the current Undecided aspire to an Eventual United Ireland.

The breakdown by Religion is:

Catholic – Protestant – Other/None

Eventual United Ireland 93% 13% 51 %

Remain in UK 2 % 82% 36%

Undecided 4% 5% 13%

Even though 22% of Catholics would vote to Remain in the UK or are Undecided if a vote were held this week, 16% of that group aspire to an Eventual United Ireland. In the Other/None group most of the Undecided aspire to an eventual united Ireland. In the None/Other group 45% vote to remain in the UK if a vote were held this week but this declines to 36% in the future indicating that some of these voters aspire to an Eventual United Ireland.

The results of this poll confirm that support for a future United Ireland is significantly higher than current support for a United Ireland. Why is this? The main reason is that voting for a United Ireland this week has many unknowns. There are currently no detailed plans on what a United Ireland would entail and how Northern Ireland would be integrated into a United Ireland. This is an issue that SF and the SDLP need to address as soon as possible. The main issues are pension costs and health care costs. Pensions for the elderly are higher in the Republic of Ireland than Northern Ireland and SF and the SDLP need to propose that the Northern Ireland rate would increase to that of the Republic of Ireland. The current problems with the NHS need to be confronted and how health care would integrate with the system in the Republic of Ireland explored and explained.

I will do a follow up analysis of a future Northern Ireland Border Poll based on the demographics in the future 2031 census, which is only 7 years from now.