By Faha
LucidTalk conducted a poll in January of this year. The weighted sample size was 1,499 and topics covered included the NI Protocol, the GFA and voter preference in an Assembly election.
Voters were asked how they would vote in the GFA referendum if the vote was held in 2023. In 1998, the GFA was approved with 71% voting YES and 29% voting NO. Results were not available by District Council or Westminster constituencies.
The only political parties that campaigned for a NO vote were the DUP and UK Unionist Party though there were some dissident republicans who were also opposed. Opinion polls were very limited in 1998 but it appears that the Catholic population was
overwhelmingly in favour of the GFA. Based on the demographics of the 2001 census it appears that there was a slight majority of the Protestant population that voted YES, probably in the range of 52% to 53%. However, since some Protestants voted for Alliance or other non sectarian candidates in other elections it is likely that a slight majority of those who voted for unionist parties voted NO.
IN 2023 these are the results on how a referendum on the GFA would be based on Religion and Party preferences.
Catholic
Yes 94%
No 4%
Undecided 2%
Protestant
Yes 34%
No 58%
Undecided 8%
Other-None
Yes 66%
No 28%
Undecided 6%
Total
Yes 64%
No 31%
Undecided 5%
The GFA would still be approved by a 2 to 1 margin. However, there has been a large decline in support for the GFA among Protestants. While a slight majority supported the GFA in 1998 only 1/3 do so in 2023.
Even more revealing is support for the GFA by political party (vote in 2022 Assembly election). 97% of voters who voted for SF or the SDLP would vote for the GFA and 92% of Alliance voters would. For unionist parties the results are:
DUP
Yes 16%
No 79%
TUV
Yes 4%
No 92%
UUP
Yes 58%
No 28%
What is obvious is that there is little support for the GFA among hard line unionist parties (DUP and TUV) and overall only 13% of DUP-TUV voters would vote for the GFA in 2023. I will return to this point later.
A question was also asked about the Northern Ireland Protocol.
Voters were asked if the DUP should return to the Northern Ireland Assembly if only some minor changes (“lighter touch”) were made to the Protocol. Overall the results were:
Return to Stormont regardless of format of NI Protocol
60%
Return to Stormont with minor changes to NI Protocol
6%
Only return if NI Protocol is removed completely
21%
Only return if major changes made to NI Protocol
12%
For SF, SDLP and Alliance voters at least 95% preferred the option that the DUP should return to Stormont regardless of the format of the NI Protocol. The results were very different for unionist voters.
DUP
Only return if NI Protocol is removed completely
55%
Only return if major changes made to NI Protocol
39%
TUV
Only return if NI Protocol is removed completely
83%
Only return if major changes made to NI Protocol
14%
UUP
Return to Stormont regardless of format of NI Protocol
50%
Return to Stormont with minor changes to NI Protocol
25%
Only return if NI Protocol is removed completely
9%
Only return if major changes made to NI Protocol
16%
For UUP voters changes in the NI Protocol are not a major issue over forming a new Executive. However, the hardline unionist party (DUP and TUV) voters are overwhelmingly opposed to having the DUP return to Stormont unless the NI Protocol is abolished or has major changes.
Voters were asked about party preference if a new Assembly election was held.
The Results were (excluding undecideds)
SF
30.5%
SDLP
7.3%
Other nationalist (Aontu, PBP, etc.)
3.1%
Alliance
14.7%
Green- other nonsectarian
2.6%
DUP
24.9%
TUV
6.7%
UUP
9.8%
Other unionist
1.4%
Both the SF and DUP preference is higher compared to the 2022 Assembly election and that for the UUP and SDLP is lower. This indicates that nationalist and unionist voters are consolidating around the largest nationalist and unionist parties. Essentially, the Assembly election is seen as a referendum on whether there should be a nationalist or a unionist First Minister.
The DUP have been criticized for their refusal to return to Stormont and form an Executive. To some extent this criticism is unfair. They are only following the wishes of their voters. Only 16% of their voters would vote for the GFA in 2023 and one of the requirements of the GFA is power sharing between the nationalist and unionist communities. Their voters are overwhelmingly opposed to the GFA and sharing power with the nationalist community. One cannot fault a political party for following the beliefs of their own voters. Furthermore, if the DUP did agree to return to Stormont after a new election they would lose a large percentage of their voters to the more hardline TUV. The LucidTalk poll from exactly one year ago had the DUP support at 17% and the TUV at 12%. It was only because the DUP took a more hardline stance over power sharing that they were able win back those voters who had defected to the TUV.
This presents a major dilemma for SF and the SDLP, the only parties that support mandatory power sharing. The DUP will never accede to a SF First Minster. There was an extended hiatus for the Assembly 20 years ago which ended with the St. Andrews Agreement. It was rumoured that the DUP only agreed to share power with a SF Deputy First Minister because the Labour government threatened Ian Paisley with joint rule with the Republic of Ireland. It is unlikely that a Conservative government would do so.
No Executive and no Assembly means direct rule by the Conservative Party. Apparently legislation will be introduced to postpone another Assembly election until 2024. What will happen to the Northern Ireland economy with a declining budget in an era of 10% inflation ? Will SF be content to allow the Assembly to cease to exist and Northern Ireland turn into a failed state? Perhaps so since that may increase support for a United Ireland. Or will they be patient and wait for a Labour government in January 2025? A Labour government will not be beholden to the DUP and may be willing to call a Border Poll.