By Faha
A new poll was released this week. It was commissioned by the University of Edinburgh and the University of Cardiff and was called the “Future of England Study”. Voters were polled throughout England, Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland during late June and early July 2018. In Northern Ireland the fieldwork was conducted by LucidTalk and included a weighted sample of 1,089 voters. Numerous questions were asked and I will go over only the most relevant ones.
Voters were asked how they would vote if a Westminster election were held. The results were (excluding those who would not vote)
DUP 31.6%
UUP 11.1%
Other Unionist 3.1%
Total Unionist 45.8%
SF 27.3%
SDLP 11.5%
PBP 0.5%
Total Nationalist 39.3%
Alliance-Green 10.6%
Undecided 4.3%
The Undecided were 70% from the unionist community, 10% nationalist and 20% Neither. Taking that into account it appears the total Unionist vote would be 48%, the total nationalist vote 40% and the Alliance-Green vote 12%. The sample in the poll appears to reflect the actual electorate since the unionist vote is nearly identical to the actual unionist vote in 2017 though the nationalist vote is lower and the Alliance-Green vote higher than the 2017 election. However, I wish to note that 22% of voters stated they would not vote and the results by constitutional background were:
Nationalist-Republican 29%
Unionist 14%
Neutral 17%
None-Non Political 91%
Nationalist voters are much less likely to vote in a Westminster election than unionist voters. As you know, this has been my contention for many years that voter turnout is lower among nationalist voters than unionist voters.
Voters were asked how they would vote on a new EU referendum and the results were:
Nationalist Unionist Neutral None-Non Political
Remain in EU 85% 28% 94% 92%
Leave EU 3% 68% 3% 3%
Undecided 12% 4% 3% 4%
For all voters it was 60% Remain, 32% Leave and 8% Undecided. This poll shows an increase in support for Remain compared to the actual EU referendum result of 56% Remain in Northern Ireland.
A question on a Border Poll was not directly asked. Voters were asked if Scotland, Wales, England or Northern Ireland should become independent countries. The results for Northern Ireland were:
No it should become part of a United Ireland 44%
No it should remain the UK 43%
Yes-independent country 4%
Undecided 9%
The breakdown by constitutional preference was:
Nationalist Unionist Neutral None-Non Political
United Ireland 89% 2% 39% 2%
Stay in UK 0% 93% 16% 5%
Independent country 4% 3% 8% 1%
Undecided 6% 1% 37% 93%
The results are unsurprising. A small number of voters actually prefer an independent Northern Ireland. There are 3 interesting findings about the None- Non Political group. Over 90% are in favour of Remaining in the EU and over 90% are Undecided about a United Ireland. Over 90% of this group also indicated that they would not vote in a Westminster election. So major questions are:
How many None-Non Political voters would vote in a Border Poll since over 90% indicate they would not vote in a Westminster election?
Since over 90% wish to Remain in the EU how will that influence their vote on a United Ireland?
The more recent Delta Poll showed that voter preference for a United Ireland would range from 53% to 56% depending on the Brexit scenario with 40% preferring to Remain in the UK. It appears that in the interval between the Edinburgh-Cardiff poll and the more recent Delta Poll that the Undecided and those who prefer an independent Northern Ireland have move to a United Ireland preference.
Another interesting finding is that voters were asked the following question:
Question 47: Some have suggested that leaving the EU may present challenges to the UK. One of these includes the unravelling of the peace process in Northern Ireland. If this happens would you say that:
Leaving the EU was not worth jeopardizing the peace process
Nationalist 97%
Unionist 30%
Neutral 98%
None- Non Political 99%
Yes it was worth it to take back control
Nationalist 3%
Unionist 70%
Neutral 2%
None- Non Political 1%
So unionist voters believe that leaving the EU is more important than peace in Northern Ireland.
This may seem surprising but it is actually not.
First of all, not all Protestants vote unionist and taking this into account perhaps 60% of Protestants believe that leaving the EU is more important than peace in Northern Ireland. When the Good Friday Agreement passed in the Referendum held in 1998 there was little polling done. The media and governments involved tried to convince the world that a slight majority of Protestants voted in favour of the Good Friday Agreement.
It is more likely that a there was a slight majority that voted against the Agreement and these voters are now still opposed to power sharing and believe that any action that jeopardizes peace in Northern Ireland, including leaving the EU, is acceptable.
The final nature of Brexit should be known by late November. It is likely that LucidTalk will conduct another poll on preferences for a United Ireland after that time.
Clarifacation of the poll quoted above as requested by Lucid Talk ” LT did the NI fieldwork (ie gathered the data) but Edinburgh/Cardiff did all the weighting, data analysis, and produced the poll results”
gendjinn said:
I think you buried the lede a bit. People are solidifying their positions, the UI leaning chunk of undecideds has made up its mind and the gap between UK/UI numbers considers to shrink as the electorate digests Brexit realities.
“Nationalist voters are much less likely to vote in a Westminster election than unionist voters. As you know, this has been my contention for many years that voter turnout is lower among nationalist voters than unionist voters.”
You are not alone in that contention. The FptP system exaggerates a general trend in NI elections which is most visible in the fine grained LG elections. N’s vote ALL/GRN if there is no N quota in the constituency. However, once an N quota appears they switch en masse to voting N and do not return to the centre bar black sheep events. Compare turnout by constituency between WM/LG/AS/EU elections and you can see the falloff in N turnout at WM.
* Is there an error with this : None-Non Political 91%”?
“It is more likely that a there was a slight majority that voted against the Agreement…”
It is hard to know for sure without knowing how many anti-GFA N voters voted. The WM analysis above of electoral/census by constituency can give you some insight into the size of the dissident anti-GFA vote, but you’ve got the error of using census figures derived from a trend line of 1991-2001 data. I’d say U vote was 50% +/- 2% and there’s 1 in 4 chance U voted as a slight majority for the GFA and 3 in 4 of a slight majority against the GFA.
Regardless, it’s 50/50 and that alone is an indictment of Unionism. No surprise, Unionism worked hard to drive the 1994 IRA ceasefire into the ditch and have done everything in their power to frustrate negotiations, the assembly and any Nationalist goal.
The rich irony at play is that Unionism in its reckless, headless pursuit of a Brexit border in Ireland are birthing their nemesis. The outcome of a hard Brexit and a border to rub in Nationalist’s faces is that which will force the undecided, inconvenienced and economically impacted to decide to hit the eject switch and vote for re-unification. To further deepen the irony, Nationalists and the non-aligned are arguing for a compromise that has no border and gives NI status in both jurisdictions. A solution that would secure the Union, likely even in the face of changing demographics. Despite two years of saying this, the DUP’s priority is a border to stick it to Nationalism. Not even Nationalist gloating that a hard Brexit will deliver a UI deters them in the slightest. Truly a case of “If themmuns are for, usuns are agin it!”
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Faha said:
That 91% for the None-Non Political group is correct. 91% stated that they would not vote in a Westminster election if it were held “tomorrow”. These appear to be people who rarely or never vote in elections. A Border Poll is likely to bring out many non voters. The Scottish Independence Referendum had a turnout of 85% of the voting age population.
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gendjinn said:
Thanks, misread your explanation of that table.
I’d expect a border poll to have a greater turnout than the GFA referendum. Projecting the date of demographic parity was child’s play compared to divining the intent of the center, non-aligned and non-voters in the border poll.
It’s clear that the largest factor now is how Brexit shakes out. The endless moving deadlines of when we are supposed to know what kind of Brexit there’s going to be are liking waiting for the followup to Loveless.
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Muiris de Bhulbh said:
There seems to be something of a trend developing here, with repeated polls suggesting a slowly declining unionist plurality, a fairly static nationalist vote ( or non vote, in Westminister), and an enlarging ‘middle’ that’s ‘open to offers’ as it were.
Interesting times, with old certainties crumbling.( on both sides)
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theguarantor said:
Brexiteers: We want a bespoke deal.
EU: Ok, we can add in a backstop.
Brexiteers: That’s not what we want.
EU: …….
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hoboroad said:
https://unherd.com/2018/10/brexit-accelerated-inevitable-ireland/
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PaulG said:
All for sensible people to do now, is to wait for the inevitable to become a reality, ably abetted by the DUPers demonstration at Westminster, of ‘how to lose friends and alienate people’.
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PaulG said:
Amazing that 68 % of Unionists still want Brexit even after the shambles since the vote and the fact that most people can now see that it will make a United Ireland more likely, much sooner!
I can understand some disadvantaged English communities seeking a last gasp salvation in Brexit, but it’s not like the north has endured massive immigration costing locals jobs or wage increases, we certainly haven’t heard of thousands of gang rapes by muslim grooming gangs and there aren’t any immigrant no-go areas that Billy can’t enter or march through wearing full Orange regalia, banging a huge drum and notifying them with banners, of his willingness to take up illegal arms if things don’t go his way.
So why are Unionists still committed to this suicidal plan?
Can it really just be that they’ll follow any donkey waving a Union Jack, especially if themun’s will suffer more (in the short term anyway).
We knew that many of them preferred the certainty of the troubles, to the changes and compromises required by the peace process, but a 70% majority of Unionists willing to dump the peace process for Brexit is very telling. A selfishness matched only by their Conservative & Unionist Party partners who are willing to let Scotland and Ulster go, as long as they get their Brexit.
Some Unionists. No loyalty. Thatcher’s alive and well and the inevitable conclusion of her pronouncement that there’s no such thing as society, only individuals, is that even the Union is disposable, and soon we will witness that.
Tiocfaidh ar la, Maggie, agus go raibh maith agat.
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hoboroad said:
https://ec.europa.eu/commission/files/draft-agreement-withdrawal-united-kingdom-great-britain-and-northern-ireland-european-union-and-european-atomic-energy-community-agreed-negotiators-level-14-november-2018_en
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hoboroad said:
Goods from NI will be labelled differently from UK goods for sale within EU.
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hoboroad said:
Westminster Voting Intention (Northern Ireland):
DUP: 31% (-5)
SF: 27% (-2)
UUP: 15% (+5)
SDLP: 11% (-1)
ALL: 12% (+4)
Via
@Survation
, 20th Oct – 2nd Nov.
Changes w/ GE2017
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Antain Mac Lochlainn (@AntainMac) said:
Interesting figures. We’re constantly told that voters are angry with SF over the deadlock at Stormont. A 2% fall in voting intentions isn’t much evidence for that.
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PaulG said:
DUP voters switching to UUP makes sense. I don’t doubt that.
But Nationalists drifting to Alliance? Not sure I can see the rationale there.
Could be that old 3 % margin of error again or maybe they’re the FF voters who couldn’t find the candidate to put their X beside.
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