Last year I attended the 1st consultation on the Boundary Commissions proposals for the new boundaries. While not perfect, they were reasonable and considered. Following that process they came back with a revision that almost entirely mirrored the DUP version of 
what was essentially a unionist wish list. A Gerrymander of epic proportions in my opinion.Boundary Commission for Northern Ireland Final Recommendations Report
The final version, published today, is essentially that DUP wish list with minor alterations.
North Down as the sacrificial lamb and the capitulation on Belfast are the glaring examples.
I have no doubts whatsoever that political intervention has taken place here and, contrary to the BC guidelines, influence has been excercised which has no place in their remit.
Based upon these changes, Sylvia Hermon would definitely lose since the 3 Holywood area wards removed which are strong for her and the wards added from the Ards Peninsula are heavily DUP.
The nationalist electorate goes up by 1% in North Belfast but these are mainly extra voters from Newtownabbey that would also add to the Alliance vote.
Faha has collated the figures below and this is a work in progress so please bear with us.
| Religion or religion brought up in: Catholic (%) |
Religion or religion brought up in: Protestant and Other Christian (including Christian related) (%) |
Religion or religion brought up in: Other religions (%) |
Religion or religion brought up None (%) |
|
| Belfast East | 12.70% | 75.40% | 1.44% | 10.47% |
| New | 14.09% | 73.83% | 1.43% | 10.65% |
| Belfast North | 46.94% | 45.67% | 1.04% | 6.36% |
| New | 47.90% | 44.21% | 1.14% | 6.75% |
| Belfast South | 44.01% | 43.65% | 2.80% | 9.54% |
| New | 42.00% | 45.82% | 2.71% | 9.48% |
| Belfast West | 80.09% | 16.64% | 0.58% | 2.69% |
| New | 69.70% | 26.18% | 0.67% | 3.45% |
| East Antrim | 20.39% | 70.11% | 0.97% | 8.53% |
| New | 16.63% | 74.06% | 0.86% | 8.44% |
| East Londonderry | 41.70% | 53.27% | 0.68% | 4.35% |
| New- Causeway | 33.52% | 60.83% | 0.74% | 4.91% |
| Fermanagh and South Tyrone | 57.69% | 39.10% | 0.61% | 2.60% |
| New | 58.57% | 38.27% | 0.59% | 2.57% |
| Foyle | 75.12% | 22.02% | 0.79% | 2.07% |
| New | 74.31% | 22.79% | 0.79% | 2.11% |
| Mid Ulster | 66.72% | 30.78% | 0.44% | 2.06% |
| New | 65.67% | 31.76% | 0.45% | 2.12% |
| Newry and Armagh | 66.36% | 30.59% | 0.55% | 2.50% |
| New | 69.43% | 27.69% | 0.54% | 2.35% |
| North Antrim | 28.39% | 66.03% | 0.74% | 4.84% |
| New- Mid Antrim | 30.28% | 64.15% | 0.72% | 4.85% |
| North Down | 12.59% | 74.44% | 1.15% | 11.83% |
| New | 14.61% | 73.47% | 1.07% | 10.86% |
| South Antrim | 31.86% | 59.80% | 0.87% | 7.46% |
| New | 28.47% | 62.06% | 1.00% | 8.47% |
| South Down | 69.26% | 26.85% | 0.52% | 3.36% |
| New | 68.66% | 27.53% | 0.52% | 3.29% |
| Strangford | 17.28% | 73.13% | 0.94% | 8.65% |
| New- Mid Down | 17.69% | 73.86% | 0.89% | 7.57% |
| Upper Bann | 44.00% | 49.99% | 0.88% | 5.14% |
| New | 43.72% | 50.30% | 0.92% | 5.06% |
| West Tyrone | 67.98% | 30.16% | 0.40% | 1.47% |
| New- Sperrin | 70.23% | 27.99% | 0.37% | 1.41% |
"We in coming days may be" 
Cursory review reminds me of the error Thatcher made in redistricting. With 2 Unionists dying for every 1 Nationalist and 2 Nationalists being born for every 1 Unionist, those 3 seats are too close to remain Unionist for long. In an effort to maximize DUP seats today North Belfast, South Belfast and Upper Bann are now the new F&ST, neck-and-neck battlegrounds for the coming decade (if NI survives a no deal Brexit that is).
I’d say there is a fair chance these boundaries will never be used in an WM election in NI. Given the way Brexit winds are blowing we are heading for no-deal and prompt re-unification.
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removing Mallusk, with its growing nationalist population is a bonus for Nigel. As Faha states, the DUP are good…..
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Indeed. Don’t forget the pace of change in South Antrim where Mallusk is bound. Glenavy and Crumlin have underwent massive change, and North Lisburn is starting to go through it now. The most unionist bit of the old Lagan Valley is now in Mid Down.
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“Capitulated on Belfast”. To who? The SDLP?
This is the sort of nonsense that makes politics these days so toxic. There are good arguments either way for whether Belfast should have 3 or 4 seats. Sinn Féin dropped the ball by not making a submission in response to the provisional proposals, and part of the Commission’s remit is not to make radical change where alternatives exist. So in the face of widespread opposition to the idea (except for Alliance) of taking a seat out of Belfast, and presented with alternative configurations that achieve the Commission’s goals with less radical change, it was almost inevitable that the Commission would reverse course on Belfast.
And let’s repeat that, because it’s worth repeating: *the Commission received submissions from the DUP, UUP and SDLP, along with a majority of public submissions on the topic, opposing the reduction of seats in Belfast to 3. The Alliance party supported it.*
Sinn Féin didn’t even make a formal submission from the party, and certainly didn’t help run a grassroots campaign in support of the provisional proposals. If they had, then there’s a good chance the Commissioners might have stuck to their guns. As it was, they were faced with very high levels of opposition to their proposals, and very little support.
And once that happened, it would be required by law to choose the less radical alternative.
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You know when you’ve become an Uncle Tom, when you’re making excuses for DUP & Tory manipulation of the democratic process.
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Looking at what the Boundary Commission recently wrote in response those who would have the Commission revert to the provisional proposals. The
“main line of argument related to electoral outcomes so fell outside our remit.”
Now for a simple question which reveals double standards in reaction:
How I ask did the commission respond to criticism of the provisional proposals?
It certainly was not with their “main line of argument related to electoral outcomes so fell outside our remit.”
No question of the desired outcome when these major alterations were made. It should have dismissed those suggestions as it usually done so with others in the past and proceeded forthwith the provisional proposals. After all electoral outcomes are not their concern.
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Slugger and Indo Newspapers launching a sustained propaganda campaign against SF …again. This can mean only one thing, there must be an election coming.
But wait.., Mick Fealty has accused SF of timing their candidate election announcement to take some of the the limelight away from the crypto Unionists smear campaign.
For the life of me, I can’t figure out which is plausible and which is spin, …not.
Just as well there’s no man playing allowed over there, or questions might be asked.
At least we can all be sure that Mairia Cahill has no axe to grind.
What’s that? Former Dissident Activist teams up with her journo aunt whose made a career out of bashing SF, in a paper that’s primary goal is to bash SF and launches a campaign in the southern media which is endemically anti-SF, with a completely uncorroborated or legally tested story, which doesn’t even stand up by her own account of events.
Thankfully, the Labour Party were able to clear it all up by making her a Senator, ahead of the thousands of proven victims, so no questions need be asked as they have given their seal of approval. And of course there is no hint of cynical political opportunism by the darlings of the liberal elites.
You couldn’t make it up, … except that they just did!
Now, a State report criticising the police, is somehow justification for relaunching the same tired old claims against SF, which the public must endure, gritting their teeth as they go unchallenged, as even SF won’t defend themselves for fear of falling foul of liberal opinion.
I wonder if this is the Silver bullet they had lined up to slay Gerry, had he decided to run for the Park .
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she was right – SF was wrong – don’t blame anyone else in the failure to protect the victim
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There’s no evidence that I’ve seen, that she is a victim of a crime.
As I understand it, she, being over the age of consent, appears likely to have conducted a sordid affair for a year, with ( A family member)- edit BD It’s understandable that each would like to absolve themselves of responsibility for it.
Undoubtedly, her (Family Members) behaviour was morally reprehensible and he must bear most of the responsibility for it, assuming the claim of the affair is true.
Whether or not it began with a rape, would be very difficult to ascertain.
Maybe the police have excellent legal techniques for extracting confessions that we haven’t seen before, but it seems to me, a face to face would be a good way of getting a confession to the allegation.
I’d have expected the parents to have arranged a family confrontation to get to the truth, before getting anyone else involved.
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