Oh the fun and games above on the hill!
It is, if nothing else, entertaining.
On a more serious level, it is confirming the politico-sceptic opinions of much of the electorate here. I think there is a concensus that nationalist voters are not turning out to reflect their demographic strength in recent elections so I’ve had a look at some relevant figures which, after all, is what this blog is about.
Firstly let us look as the turnout by age at the 2010 UK election:
Now we all know two things, those most likely to vote unionist are in an older demographic cohort in the north east of Ireland and they are also in a majority within that older cohort. In fact they are in a majority at every age over 43 according to the most recent census.
We also know that potential nationalist voters are in a majority at every age below that threshold and, indeed, are on the cusp of a majority overall in real terms.
The actual voting figures are currently approx 4% apart between the main nationalist and unionist blocks. This tends to be concentrated geographically but that is a subject for another blog.
What I am looking at here is the fact that the older demographic tend to vote in greater numbers and therefore disproportionately skew results. That is a perfectly legitimate electoral fact and in no way do I dispute the results thereof.
Let’s take a look at another interesting graph from the Guardian:
Although this graph is based on UK voting patterns we can see that the gap exceeds 5% on average. That is enough to generate a border poll debate.
It is interesting to note that in Scotland the inclusion of younger voters generated a much energised electorate and an independence campaign that failed only, as is now generally acknowledged, by a campaign of fear and intimidation aimed primarily at older voters.
The challenge for nationalist parties now is to energise and invigorate their base electorate.
Are any of them up for it?
An Sionnach Fionn said:
On the nationalist side of the north-eastern divide everything seems on hold until the general election later this year or early next. Who knows what spectrum of parties will be in power in Dublin after that? Only then we will see what Sinn Féin will do. Which will then decide the actions of the SDLP. In turn shaping the reactions of the unionist parties. A big showing by SF nationally will give it more pull regionally in the north. That will effect the nationalist electorate as a whole. Then parties might start thinking long term and demographically.
Can’t see SF in power in Dublin, though. Another FG-led coalition seems likely. Still SF might decide to go more aggressive at Stormont with 20-odd TDanna as leverage in Leinster House.
At the moment northern politics are just clunking along as abnormal 😉
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Kevin in Cork said:
You might be surprised how well the party does in 2016. Remember that there is a lot of unpopularity over water and SF have a slate of highly thought of policies.
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An Sionnach Fionn said:
Agreed but will that translate into seats in sufficient numbers? Based on current polling SF might grab 20-25 seats which would be an excellent result. However that number isn’t a coalition-making figure, even at the top end. PBP-AAA, etc. won’t be able to make up the rest. The best that can be hoped for is the position of main Opposition party. Though I suspect FF will still squeak that.
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boondock said:
There isnt much for nationalists to vote for. Councillors dont do much, the local parties have zero influence in Westminster and Europe and the Assembly is on life support moving from one crisis to another with nothing getting done. SF have stalled, the SDLP decline continues. PBP look like making a breakthrough but will declare as other depite the overwhelming majority of their votes coming from nationalists. Workers party and other nationalist parties and independents often are not included in any nationalist total unlike PUP, UKIP, TUV etc meaning the nationalist % of vote will continue to fall. Maybe a border poll might get nationalists energised but that wont happen until there is any evidence in other elections to say a poll is required so looks like we are stuck fo the forseeable future.
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Kevin in Cork said:
SF have not “stalled” — SF is a 32 county party and measures itself at that level and I would expect a growth in seats both in the regional Six County Assembly and in the national Dail in Dublin.SF could soon form an effective all Ireland government – setting the agenda in all 32 counties.
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Faha said:
One major factor that determines the outcome of an election are the constituency boundaries. The UK Westminster boundary review is scheduled to resume based on the December 2015 electoral register. This has been under the radar in Northern Ireland and Northern Ireland will lose 2 seats based on the current electoral register numbers. The political parties in Northern Ireland seem oblivious to the loss of 2 seats. They all should be working on a major voter registration drive in the next 2 months. I estimate that an extra 25,000 voters on the register would result in only 1 lost seat and another 60,000 voters on the register would result in keeping all 18 constituencies.
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Kevin in Cork said:
The constituency boundaries may well help Sinn Fein. It could put the SDLP’s South Down and Foyle heartlands at risk and it should hand Sinn Féin two of Belfast’s three constituencies, while depriving SDLP of the other.
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Charlie said:
Glad someone has brought this up. I’ve been saying it for a while. You know, nationalist politicians should be working round the clock to get people on the register between now and December. Even if those people don’t vote it will still be a boost. If a constituency like Foyle gets close to the new electorate total by registering more people, then the likes of neighbouring east Derry, like in 2007, would need relatively more wards shuffled over to it to make up the numbers. If for example Foyle lost Eglinton ward to East Derry then it would make both constituencies more nationalist as the ward is less nationalist than foyle and more than east derry. Like Banagher and Claudy before it. These people wouldn’t even need to start voting and still have an influence. The last suggestions came up with a Glenshane seat but I imagine there is no requirement to revisit those boundaries. Nationalist seats like Newry/Armagh and South Down seem to have very large electorates now and should be able to even up smaller nearby unionist seats like Strangford. The current assembly seats are almost as good for unionists as it gets. If they could take SFs seat in East Antrim it would be as good as it gets for them. Small unionist seats like east antrim, East belfast, North Down and Strangford would have to be amalgamated and boosted by less overwhelmingly unionist wards.
It’s time to talk about this.
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Croiteir (@Croiteir) said:
Once I see a nationalist party that will not allow the unionists to dictate the odds and are not anti-Catholic I will vote for it. until then I simply will not. There is no point in me electing people who will not confront unionism or promote policies which contradict my religious beliefs. This is a basic for me.
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Kevin in Cork said:
Sinn Féin has a strong republican analysis and a mandate from many voters of a Catholic background.
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Croiteir (@Croiteir) said:
Are you trying to sell SF to me? Ivana Baciks Bill is my answer, among many
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Kevin in Cork said:
Looking at this from a Cork perspective I was wondering whether we can expect that Sinn Féin can take the following seats in the northern Assembly: There should be one more seat in WB where SDLP is losing all the time. Hard to get the balancing right but worth it. Ditto Foyle and Upper Bann where there are weak SDLP candidates with ittle media profile on RTE. Recon one could also be taken in South Down as SDLP are apparently changing all their candidates so they will lose the personality vote. Should see a rise in SF in South Belfast as they are said to have put a strong pro-business voice in there, who is excellent on social media. Would like to see SF supplant SDLP as the lead nationalist party in South Belfast at some point over the next 5 yrs as the SDLP have had far too many votes there in recent times. There is also a sitting target in North Belfast for SF to get all three nationalist seats. there.
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Feckitt said:
BD, we are almost half way between the last census and the next one. If memory serves me correct as of 2011 the Catholic population was a slowly rising 45% and the Protestant population was a rapidly declining 48%.
Are we nearly at the point yet where the Catholic population outnumbers the Protestant Population.
Has someone even calculated a date!!
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boondock said:
Paddy reilly over on slugger has done the sums a couple of times. I cant remember his exact date but it was either late 2016 or early 2017. Thats community background stats actual religion has already happened
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Feckitt said:
Thank Boondock, I found his links on Slugger. The date he has worked out is December 2016.
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Enda said:
30 January 2017! http://www.endgameinulster.blogspot.ie/2013/11/demographic-timebomb.html?m=1
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bangordub said:
Thanks Enda!
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WilliamMcGowan said:
January 2017
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benmadigan said:
Enda overlooked one point – the tipping point is further along in the future.
“Of course people under the age of 18 cannot vote. Excluding under 18s the gap between the main blocks in Census 2011 is 98,561. The gap in the 2001 census was 182,202. Between the last two census’ the gap between the two main blocks has decreased by 8,364 per year or 22.9 per day. The gap of 98,561 divided by the change per day gives us 4,301 days. 4,301 days on from 27 March 2011 is 04 January 2023!”
http://www.endgameinulster.blogspot.ie/2013/11/demographic-timebomb.html?m=1
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zig70 said:
I could understand the obsession with number if it was just a series of border polls. It isn’t. If SF was serious about achieving a UI then they would manage the brand selling a lot better. Currently we have SF with it’s strong left politic, industrial wages and dodgy past (and present) and the SDLP with it’s slightly confused small c conservative with centre left politic. No wonder nationalists don’t vote, even with the apathy. If someone gave me the task of achieving a UI, I’d have maybe at least 4 parties on the go (without admitting it) and allowing for failures.
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zig70 said:
The protestant middle class are another section without political representation and are very comfortable in being called Irish and call Derry, Derry. I believe they could be persuaded. The obsession with the census is just a distraction from the fact that the argument has no energy, no compulsion and no real leaders, even though the activity on the ground is quite strong. There is a real buzz around bun scoils and gaa clubs and the irish identity has never been so robust, however in the north that buzz is channelled by SF down a narrow political path.
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