A few highlights crossing my mind as I watch the European Rugby final. (I’m against promoting the sponsors unless they want to pay me for the privelige)
Firstly:
Pint. A fabulous creamy, properly poured, delicious pint is €3.40. That’s better than Bangor. Best Chowder I’ve had in a long time with gorgeous soda bread, proper butter and fantastic service. Pure heaven.
Secondly:
Some points about the Census.
Immigration is a major factor for the first time in the North. 11% of the population now was born outside the six counties including me. A lot of these “immigrants” (I know, I use the word tongue firmly in cheek) are having babies, mostly in Dungannon and the odd place called “Craigavon” as well as Belfast. On identity, a lot of people seem to have recorded themselves as having multiple boxes to tick. 10% of people, that’s 180,000, ticked more than 1 box. There is a definite reluctance on the part of, mostly younger, people, to define themselves along the traditional lines. Things are changing rapidly and there is no longer any single demographic group in any kind of a majority.
As I sip my pint and savour the crabmeat, leeks, salmon, cod and prawns in the beautiful creamy garlicky sauce I am thinking that the electoral mix is being stirred north of the border.
Perhaps new thinking is required in the political kitchen?
"We in coming days may be" 
Doubt the last thing the creators of project Northern Ireland wanted was anybody to come along and stir the pot.
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I wonder what the future does indeed hold because, if there is new thinking in the political kitchen, I would hazard a guess that losing Unionism and Nationalism will be, paradoxically, a major victory for Unionism.
Strange as that may seem, the removal of the national question is what Unionism craves because “we” can continue on as part of the status quo. Only by keeping the national question alive can Nationalism and/or Republicanism strive to remove the border. If no one is asking the question, there can be no answer and therefore things stay the same.
Plus ca change, plus c’est la meme chose, as it were.
Enjoy the pints, BD!
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I’m back in town and trying to make time to write the next piece Carrickally.
This part of the world has largely been immune to the political effects of immigration so far although I would argue that emigration has been a major factor.
I would take issue with you on the question of a status quo. In my view the existence of the northern statelet is a transitionary arrangement. The question is what will develop over the next few years.
The pints were terrific by the way 🙂
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Not with a seeming majority of Catholics in favour of a union, will it be transitory Bangordub. In my opinion what will develop is a further ‘making comfortable’ and expansion of the middle ground. Religion is diminishing and with it the old tribal ties. More and more are seeing extreme positions as a retrograde step, republican or unionist, and don’t want to know. Rather than not bothering to vote I wish they’d smash Sinn Fein and smash the DUP.
I think from the census 11% of Catholics said they were ‘British only’. That’s about 70000-80000 Catholics, no? This keeps Northern Ireland place in the UK pretty safe from where I’m standing, if only the idiots in the TUV,DUP AND UUP could hit themselves over the head with a hammer and see this, eh?
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True. A sensible Unionist politican (whichever party, it doesn’t really matter) needs to praise Community Relations activity, be seen at Gay Pride and generally reach out where-ever and how-ever. Gavin Robinson at the minute seems to be fitting that bill pretty well in Belfast. Would be nice to see a current Stormonter do the same.
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Basil McCrea and John McCallister?? I wonder how they will do and wish them all the best luck in the world.
Gavin Robinson does seem like a genuine nice bloke and good representative, one of the few in the DUP. That party will bring him down one way or another though.
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Basil’s a strange little man. I wouldn’t trust him to flush the loo. McCallister may be more honest than him but he would have been better off in the UUP.
Apart from Gavin Robinson, who are the other stand-outs for the DUP in the sub-40 category?
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I can hardly think of any DUP people who have fresh ideas on what a modern pro-UK NI should be, or the UUP for that matter. I think nearly the entire lot of them have led Northern Ireland and pro-union politics down a reactionary and idiotic path. We have to reject these parties to move forward. McCallister isn’t better in the UUP his liberal and forward thinking views were stifled and rejected by that party of unionist traditionalists, same as McCrea. Thats what the DUP and UUP are, bogged down and rendered useless by traditional and old fashioned notions of how one has to act and behave to be a unionist. Have to disagree about McCrea, I think he was just about the only ‘unionist’ to show any intergrity over the flags issue and these 2 are about the only ‘unionists’ to cop on about what I said in my post above re Catholics and the union, and liberal Britishness generally. Not only cop on but willing to stick their neck on the line and try to act on this, and to branch ‘unionism’ onto fertile new ground. To be fair Peter Robinson knows this also, hence his Catholics and unionists speeches, but he doesn’t have the bravery, conviction or support to steer the DUP in that direction. I agree with most nationalists that ‘political unionism’ has failed Northern Ireland, but ‘the union’ hasn’t. What is it about McCrea you don’t like?
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I have always said that we should put aside the “tick tock” arguments and try to develop a case for a UI that can appeal to people of all cultural backgrounds.
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To a certain extent, a UK appeals far more on the multi-kulti scale than a UI ever could; we can dress ourselves up as a nation of immigrants with a diverse capital (I mean London, not the Lisburn Road!) and ignore the little Englanders in the Daily Heil. Even in a NI context, Protestantism is a grouping of different churches rather than the monolithic RC Church that represents Irishness, even to those who should know better, so we can get away with being diverse too.
It is my belief that RoI is very similar to the UK now, with diversity across the urban landscape but not so much the further north and west you go in the countryside. NI is definitely different to the mainland and the south. Eventually, we’ll all catch on and live in peace and harmony.
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We in Dublin often shake our heads when people from the outlying parts come out with the more “country” views that can be expressed. (And that is before you get to the six counties). However I would argue that Dublin is essentially the part of Ireland that sets the essence of the nation.
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I thought it was Cork? ;
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alfie, McCrea has always come across to me as self-centred and a publicist. Even during his first turn in the Asssembly, from 2007, he didn’t come in to “learn the ropes” but more to put himself forward as a “senior unionist source.” I always have concerns when someone explodes themselves onto the scene like that – Conall McDevitt would be another character I’d be wary about with his penchant for TV appearances.
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I guess its horse for courses, funny I thought McDevitt was one of the few in nationalism who had bothered with any forward or alternate thinking. I think that any new pro-union politicians should look at the old guard as a lesson on how not to do things, apart from some of the UUP GFA Team. Its funny how you see an ego at play whereas I see someone with fresh ideas not willing to accept what has gone before as the blueprint. I think McCrea’s brand of pro-union is the best chance to get some Catholics to vote for an avowedly pro-union party for the first time ever, it may not work but it stands a much better chance than the DUP/UUP can offer – do you think so and this is good, no?
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Conal McDevitt is one of the few politicians in the Assembly who could pass muster as a serious politician elsewhere – in my opinion.
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factual, I think to look at politicians as serious or not, we have to withdraw any comments they make from May to August (marching/silly season time). If they do a good job in the other months, they might have something about them. From the DUP, I’d be inclined towards Arlene Foster. Seems to have a firm grip on what’s going on with one of the most diverse and important departments with DETI.
Stephen Farry went up massively in my estimations yesterday when talking about the unsustainability of teacher training as it currently is, with his speech including the dichotomy of not producing enough engineers despite the shortage there whilst paying more than the rest of the UK to train highly-thought of, but virtually unemployable, teachers. He’d hit my number one if he’d now tell John O’Dowd that his 600 student teachers to enter the ITEs in September is a ridiculously high number that is only kept at that level to artificially sustain Stran and St. Mary’s.
alfie, I would be delighted if the liberal Unionist brand was able to take off. If Basil’s the driver to do that, I wouldn’t be so sure but it does need to be a Belfast-centric party and it needs to get the good unicorns out of the garden centre and into the polling booths. How does it do that? Unfortunately, it’ll have to be a Tory-lite grouping which could only succeed if they gained the levels of financial power and Westminster granted us further taxation responsibility. That’s a pretty hard circle to close for any party, considering our situation at Stormont and the reluctance of the Treasury to give us more rope.
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The recent batch of releases says that East Europeans were recorded as 75% Catholic.
My calculator tells me then that 24479 out of the 32639 migrants from these countries are Catholic by religion.
Regarding Eastern Europe speficically I am interested in the question “if the East European migration wave had not happened at all, would the percentage of Catholics by religion have risen in NI between 2001 and 2011?”
The census tells us that the proportion of NI that is Catholic by religion rose by 0.5% between 2001 and 2011 as follows:
2001: 40.26% (Source: Census 2001)
2011: 40.76% (Source: Census 2011)
If one deducts 32639 from the 2011 population of NI (1810863) [Source Census 2011] and 24479 from the 2011 Catholic population (738033) [Source Census 2011] you get that there would have been 1778224 people in NI of which 713554 would have been Catholic by religion. This is 40.1% Catholic by religion — i.e.. less than the figure of 40.26% recorded in 2001.
This says that if the wave of migrants from East Europe had not happened then the catholic by religion share of the population would have fallen not risen.
A narrow question I agree, but in this latest calculation I have *not* had to make an assumption about the percentage of each nationality that is Catholic – the figure of 75% has come directly from the latest release in the census.
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@factual,
“We in Dublin often shake our heads when people from the outlying parts come out with the more “country” views that can be expressed.”
I’m sure the people from the “outlying parts” feel much the same about the people of the Pale!
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One thing that I’ve always thought will be a game changer is the amount of people seeing themselves as “Northern Irish”, especially among younger people. In the long term, the main parties, if they want to evolve, will have to start talking in practical terms, and stop trying to appeal to the lowest common denominator.
I think that both sides will have to give actual reasons on why it is in our interests to either stay in, or leave the union, what changes will have to be made, depending on the scenario, rather than relying on our past history, as the immigrants probably couldn’t care less about our past history, whose projected increased numbers will have a role to play in the future.
Another thought has come into my head, Northern Ireland means different things to different people, you have people who see it as “the north of Ireland/six counties etc, etc”, the ones who see it as “northern Ireland GB/UK”, then you have people who recognise it as a separate place on its own.
It wouldn’t surprise me, in time, if there was a concerted effort to campaign for some form of independence for Northern Ireland, i think i came across evidence somewhere of some people wanting it during the troubles, correct me if I’m wrong, it might’ve had something to with John McMichael and a few other figures.
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A Independent Ulster was popular amongst some Loyalists in the 1970’s and 1980’s. I think it grew out of the UWC strike and a believe that Ulster could always go it alone. It was tied into a Doomsday situation of Westminster washing its hands of the place and withdrawing its troops. It made a bit of a comeback under a Reverend Hugh Ross who held a number of rallies in the late 1980’s and the early 1990’s.
http://ulstersdoomed.blogspot.co.uk/search?q=UDA+doomsday+plan
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Hoboroad, Great comment and I take your point. I am deliberately staying quiet this week for reasons that will become apparent. Thanks
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Hi Bangorub I was wondering if you could ask Sammy McNally to do a guest blog here. The last time you did a guest blog (carrickally) it was a great success.
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Factual, there is one in the pipeline and Sammy has previously guest blogged here as well.
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Thanks, its encouraging to hear that you have asked him to do another.
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Let’s get real.
This is good old Northern Ireland we’re talking about here.
Bonfires and Drums for the main public holiday.
More people at a local flute band parade than a Linfield home game.
Btw, thanks Carrickally for figuring out the difference between local unionism and the “union”.
The main question isn’t the “Union”, for or against.
It’s, how does local unionism react to waking up in a Northern Ireland were they are no longer top dog.
Let’s see cozy liberal letgetalongism then.
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