Are we witnessing a major realignment within Unionism?
I mentioned on this blog last August that when the Census results were released if, and I thought at the time it was a big if, the protestant vote fell below 50% that the effects upon political unionism would be interesting to observe. I think it may be fair to say that is exactly the scenario which is unfolding now.
In November, Peter Robinson read the jungle drums from within his own constituency (with thanks to Kalista63). His response was an ill conceived attack on the Alliance party. This has developed into the whole flag debacle. Working class unionism is now openly challenging the concept of democracy. The mainstream unionist parties spent the first few weeks in open panic without a clue what to do next. The result was the unionist forum? I think. The UUP are now a party in open internal warfare with Basil McCrea voting against the leadership tonight on a DUP amendment in the assembly. This is largely the work of Peter Robinson who has played the hapless Mike Nesbitt like the proverbial fiddle. Basil has considerable support within unionism in my opinion and I am sure there are voices urging him to make the break. He may not have to, such is the state of that party they may sack him by the weekend. I have no doubt that he is capable of harnessing a considerable personal vote as just about the only unionist politician to emerge with any credibility whatsoever.
The next round of elections in 2014 will be very very interesting.
"We in coming days may be" 
Every Party seems to have people who are more popular outside the Party than within. Basil McCrea might be a nice guy but would those people who like him actually vote for him? Besides even if he is thrown out or leaves UUP …where would he go…Alliance, Conservative, Independent or form a new Liberal Unionist Party.?
we still don’t know.
While McCrea is popular he can only get elected once, that popularity is unlikely to spill over from
East Antrim(Lagan Valley BD). unfortunately for Basil, journalists and Basil’s friends only get one vote.LikeLike
You may be right but I would argue that he has grown in stature over the past few weeks. Who would vote for him? Garden Centre unionists, small u unionists, even castle nationalists? I don’t know to be honest. I do think he would do better outside the metaphorical Titanic of the UUP however. I don’t think he is a Tory although others do. I see him as a possibility for alliance or, as I have argued above, a realigned “small u” unionist grouping. I sense a new party in the offing
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Oops for some reason I relocated Basil to East Antrim.
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Corrected that for you 😉
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If the UUP lose one more MLA, does the d’Hondt formula have to be run again to account for the fact that they have the same number of seats as the SDLP, but fewer votes to give the SDLP an earlier pick, or does it just stay as it is?
Also, with Gerry Adams banging on about a border poll and being rebuffed, will next year’s euro election allow for it should unionism cease to have two seats?
At the minute the 2nd unionist seat is far from safe. I pretty sure the DUP knows that and for that reason will only run one candidate. The UUP vote is in free fall. If the alliance surge is to be believed, then they will be running the UUP close. If the alliance candidate goes out first, their transfers are likely to go to the SDLP by quite a bit ahead of the UUP. So they’ll rely on other unionist transfers to overtake the SDLP. If the UUP bites the dust first, then they’ll either pass on enough transfers for the alliance to overtake the SDLP or more likely, they won’t care.
Either way, would the loss of one unionist next year be enough to trigger a border poll?
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Good stuff Charlie.
I think it’s the relevant size of the blocks that count but no doubt a deal will be struck to avoid running d’Hondt. Look at the current Alliance position. Either way Unionism will soon have to deal with a nationalist majority in Stormont, it’s purely a question of time. Time is nationalists friend and unionists know it. Imagine the reaction to being a minority in Stormont with a SF First minister? I know FM and DFM are technically equals but the psychological blow will be hard for them to deal with. All the talk of majority rule turned on it’s head. I wonder will they be so keen on unionism forming a pact and an official opposition being formed but with unionists in opposition rather than government be so popular then? I have my doubts.
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I listened to Basilon the radio yesterday. He made it quite clear that if there was any move towards unionist unity, either in forming voting blocks, agreed candidates or any formal or nod and wink basis whatsoever he would leave the UUP. He said that unionism is not well served with one unionist party, it was quite clear to me that he was not interested and wanted to have more than one unionist party. So I cannot see hm joining the conservatives or alliance. And whether McCallister if he resigns?
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BD,
re. “I mentioned on this blog last August that when the Census results were released if, and I thought at the time it was a big if, the protestant vote fell below 50% that the effects upon political unionism would be interesting to observe. I think it may be fair to say that is exactly the scenario which is unfolding now.”
Another thing unfolding from the census figures may be about to be upon us. The over optimistic interpatation of the census figures by SF (and here and elsewhere by Nats) may just result in a serious strengthening of Unionism (probably in Party terms for the DUP) if they do indeed ‘call SF’s bluff’.
This has been the obvious way out of the flags debacle for Unionism and probably SFs worst strategic mistake since the start of the Peace Process.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-northern-ireland-21140469
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Yes Sammy,
On the face of it you may be correct. I believe that a debate is starting however and that is surely a good thing? I think you may be saying that unionist voters will flock to the DUP? I would suggest that is far from certain, particularly if, as I suspect, Basil and John McAllistair are about to open up a new front. The DUP has an exposed liberal flank, the UUP ain’t going there, I think others may
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BD,
re. “On the face of it you may be correct. I believe that a debate is starting however and that is surely a good thing? ”
No it is not a good thing – hence the statement above “probably SFs worst strategic mistake since the start of the Peace Process”.
You dont pick a fight at the wrong time – which is what SF appear to be doing -very bad politics. The census resulsts(i.e. those we understand were awful) and the Southern economy worse.
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SinnFein do nothing without a reason. What the hell it is this time, I just can’t begin to see and can only manifest one quite far fetched guess.
As for the OP, I think we can safely dispense with calling the DUP a loyalist party safe in the knowledge that they are, to a man, loyalist. There’s no flag dispute and I say with very rare confidence, anyone who thinks there is, is a fool. This began before June 2012, before the loyalist attack on Short Strand by the UVF ( http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-northern-ireland-13854027 ) and a pan unionist movement to reassert themselves in the centenary of covenant lunacy but in the interim 100 years, nationalist’s gonads were going to spoil the party. The city of Belfast, the capital of Zion, was to have a Catholic majority and a significant one at that.
In the linked article, Margaret Ritchie MP, the only politician willing to face down the loyalists and their DUP partners, said the Peter Robinson wanted dosh for the boys, rather than the new bridge. Peter objected to her comments then did exactly as Ms Ritchie had stated. Buddha forbid that any journalist would point this out lest they be at the wrong end of Robinson’s fondness for court cases. Sure, it’s ok for him to name an innocent developer as a front for the IRA which could have, as DUP lies have done before, cost the man his life.
I digress; 2013/14/15 are going to be the biggest reality check the statelet has ever had and thanks to David Cameron, the place will be exposed as the irredeemable succubus that it has always been. Too much to say that Peter et al are well aware of this?
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I’ve also wondered about the value of a border poll for nationalists.
but I can certainly see the value of one for unionists. It would be a major campaign and would have a unifying effect…if not quite unity in a party sense. the pint has been made about the Covenant…as an opportunity for unity certainly but it was undermined by the Flegs issue. So Unionism would certainly see it as a chance to get back on track.
For nationalists….with the likelihood of a YES vote…I can’t see how nationalists could actually motivate enough SF/SDLP voters to get out and vote. I can’t see that they would reach 42% which is the nationalist/republican vote in elections….where there is winning and losing.
But with the only realistic result of a Border Poll being a defeat, would nationalists actually turn out. I was on the electoral roll at the time of the first border poll…not even sure of the date 1972 1973 whatever but like everyone else I abstained.
By any standards the best result would be 42% which would be credible. …and state clearly the size of the task facing nationalists….and say a result of 5% would be meaningless but based on abstentions it would not show the strength or otherwise of the nationalist case.
Yet a vote of 25% would be a disaster and a major boost to unionism as it would be impossible to work out the unicorn factor.
I can’t see any good reason for SFs obsession with a border poll. Do they know something that we don’t? Will they be hoping for overwhelming support in the south and west so that we will be entering into a new phase….cantons, joint sovereignty, even repartition which they might see as not sustainable in the long term.
For what it’s worth I think the current arrangements have no long term future and we are probably heading closer to joint sovereignty than ever before.
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Paul,
re. “SinnFein do nothing without a reason.”
As I have mentioned elsewhere there is no better political operator in these islands (see link below)than the boul Alex and he has managed to go for a referendum too early. There are I agree a number of theories that can dreamt up as to what SF are up to – but it is most likely just a bad mistake by Gerry and Co.
SF are going to owe Tezza-the-Viceroy big time (for saying No poll here) over this.
http://judecollinsjournalist.blogspot.co.uk/2013/01/no-poll-here-referenda-and-how-to-avoid.html
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Sammy
Sinn Fein are more than welcome to make twats of themselves but not the nationalist idea.
As for Alex, I don’t think enough people here grasp what is coming down the line this year and the next two. What’s more, the Labour Party keep saying they won’t reverse the Tory policies after they have been passed and the Scots will be a given a chance to escape the sinking ship.
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Sammy- Why do you think Yes Scotland are wrong to want a referendum- what is the point of kicking the can down the road? Circumstances in 2014 may never again be replicated (Scotland hosting major international events and the non-mandated tories’ austerity at its peak). So far the unionists have offered nothing but hysterical scare stories which are increasingly being ridiculed by unionist journalists.
http://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree/2013/jan/20/scottish-independence-becoming-only-option
http://www.scotsman.com/news/joyce-mcmillan-no-answer-came-the-stern-reply-1-2745048
The yes side have nothing to fear.
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…this just in – Tezza supplies the necessaries
“When contacted by the News Letter, a spokeswoman for Secretary of State Theresa Villiers said: “The provisions for calling a border poll are set out in the Belfast Agreement and the Northern Ireland Act 1998.
“Given the state of opinion in Northern Ireland, which is clearly expressed in election results and opinion polls, the Government has no present plans to call such a poll.”
That’s my gal.
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I go for the Sekigahara explanation. I believe it certainly is part of the motivation. SF calling for a border poll is their equivalent of ordering the arquebusiers to fire on the men on the hill. These men on the hill are the parties in the south. Anyone remember SF calling on them to prepare a paper on Irish unification and the running of the southern parties like scalded cats away from it?
This to me is what this is really about, an attempt to smoke out FF/FG and Labour as per their vision, at least that opens a new front to be attacked.
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The debate needs to start now. The referendum needs to happen as soon as nationalists have a plurality in Stormont.
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The more people talk about it the better. What happens in Scotland will be interesting. The UK is in more debt than ever and still growing. Handouts from London to the region’s will be getting less as each year passes. Also with the rise of UKIP in GB this may determine the future of the UK in the EU and nationalist opinion of being part of the UK.
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I also believe that the policy of Eire May dropped by Sinn Fein should be looked at again. I believe RSF still have this policy.
Personally I think it is a great starting point.
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Eire Nua that should be.
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Oakleaf,
Fundamental difference between Scotland and the north. Scotland is proposing a brave new step as an independent nation once again. The question in the north is which nation to align itself with.
Very good article here on the subject of Unionism by the way with a Scottish / Donegal slant
http://www.philmacgiollabhain.ie/northern-irelands-new-minority-community/
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Paul,
re. “Sinn Fein are more than welcome to make twats of themselves but not the nationalist idea.”
I agree with the sentiment – SF are the largest Nat party because they are preceived to do the best for their community if and when that changes then like the UUP and the SDLP before them then they will fall away.
To be fair in this case SF knew Tezza would not be calling for a border poll.
re. Alex
Economics cares little for morality – the Tories may yet look like the best option in 2 years time – if there is economic upturn the Tories will get in on their own. Alex has cut and run too early- he should have gone for devomax first.
Croiter,
It is good politics to expose the Southern parties(as long as Tezza the Viceroy plays her part) they should be pusing for osuthern representation for Northern parties and blaming FF and FG for wrecking the Southern economy and in the process delaying a UI.
Oakleaf,
A bad defeat for Alex is bad for Nats here. But I agree the Tories weakness is the EU – Salmond should be callling for a referendum on EU – arguably to keep Scotland in the EU as the Tories head towards the exits. The same arguements used by the Tories against the Nats can be used by the Nats against the Tories on the EU.
Enda,
Border polls should only be demanded when you can realistically win – luckily enough that is what the liegislation says.
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I see Alex Kane agrees with me about a realignment taking place in Unionism…..
Todays Bel Tel:
http://www.belfasttelegraph.co.uk/opinion/news-analysis/nesbitts-cosying-up-to-dup-will-sideline-his-party-16264412.html
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Political Unionism is certainly in a mess and even though Alex Kane is one of the most shrewd analysts of unionism…I don’t think anyone can really get a handle on what’s happening there. It’s all without direction.
I have always said that unionism and nationalism needs two Parties. People have to go into a polling booth feeling that there’s an alternative. So a stronger bigger DUP might be good for the DUP but bad for unionism.
But ahead of Fridays disciplinary hearing on Basil McCrea which might actually force his hand….my impression is that Basil is lacking any kinda direction. We still don’t know if and where he will go….or if he and McCallister will end of in the same place.
Mention has been made of Jeffrey Donaldson. Only two others jumped with Jeffrey to DUP. One was Norah Beare (sp) who is no longer a MLA and a certain Arlene Foster who has actually done a little better than Jeffrey, who has a nice little sinecure for the rest of his life but will have no influence.
The key here is that DUP changed its approach, softened a little….and should McCrea, McCallister go to the Alliance Party….as Parsley, Bradshaw, Hamilton have done…the arrival of so many gene pool unionists is bound to change that Party from being agnostic to liberal unionist, it’s original manifestation.
But re-alignment? That’s essentially TWO new unionist parties (three if you count Alliance) and a UUP rump around Nesbitt.
If we talk about secular, modern Unionist party under McCrea, it might get a boost from the media and supporters on certain websites but they would need more defections…and perhaps Alex Kane is hinting at that….but they would need new members, possibly high profile who have been on the fringe of politics…because Policy isn’t enough. …McCrea needs people…..and he is hamstrung by the fact that we are still too far away from an election. Momentum would be lost.
A new grassroots party? Unionists don’t like the look of community activists. Some are ahem…too tainted …historically to be anything other than confined to a very narrow geographical area. Half quotas are enough for council seats but not enough to be serious players.
Ultimately the realignment….liberal unionist, community unionist, Alliance would be just ground that is too crowded especially against a changing demographic.
It’s no good pointing the finger at unionist politicians. There are too many unionist commentators, community activists, liberal unionist, bloggers, lobbyists, middle ground quango types who have stood aside from the nitty gritty of politics for too long….had they been more actively involved for past decade, they might have had more influence now.
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Excellent contribution (As are most comments hereabouts lest anyone be offended) Mr Fitz, a return to form.
I personally think the more the merrier. Does Otto, our resident alliance (I think) have any thoughts on this?
I wonder if some new liberal faces may emerge from within unionism if, as I suspect, a new grouping is formed? This is undoubtedly the demographic cohort that is currently without representation.
The other cohort is the working class loyalist grouping. The PUP I would have thought is best placed to voice their opinion but without David Irvine and Dawn Purvis they appear somewhat lost. I’m still dying to hear if Willie Frazer is going to stand in mid ulster. I really hope young Jamie Bryson stands as well for something, anything.
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If Garden Centre Unionists are to motivated by something “new” there would need to be more personnel involved than Basil McCrea and John McCallister. Which would mean that some people in journalism (Newton Emerson perhaps) or Platform for Change (Robin Wilson, Nuala McKeever) blogging (Brian Walker) lobbying (Quintin Oliver perhaps) would have to get involved. Or indeed someone who had a profile in the lucrative Golden Halo or voluntary civic sector.
It would take more than McCrea and McCallister.
And I note that Ian Parsley has recently observed that you can’t be liberal and a unionist….something I have long believed anyway. There is a limited opportunity for too many people to make a career. And the nuances of the middle ground…Alliance, liberal unionists, Greens, Labour NI, Conservatives are such that a person thinking in terms of a career might well be influenced by location or opportunity. For example a middle ground careerist in Strangford might think in terms of Alliance, but McCrea in Lagan Valley might be Conservative, and McCallister Independent in South Down.
But the problem for supporters of middle ground “LetsGetAlongerist” politics is that they can build the middle ground and damage the brand leader, Alliance.
But ultimately people who have talked about this kinda thing since 1998…just don’t have the bottle.
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In relation to the “border poll” I favour 2019 as the referendum date with a lead-up from 2016, for a number of reasons including:
1) A hopefully revived and economically prosperous Irish (southern) economy, with a more advanced and attractive society.
2) A potentially independent Scotland or continued political destabilisation in the UK following a divisive Scottish referendum and continuing debates over evolving devolution.
3) Independence or further devolution/nationalist movements in Wales and England in reaction to the Scottish vote.
4) A second Conservative UK government with further cuts and growing disaffection in the edges of the UK while at the same time increased weight is given to the political and socio-economic needs of the England/London lobby.
5) A disruptive and probably quite bitter referendum in the UK that could take it out of the EU (possibly based on the weight of the English vote) with disastrous socio-economic effects for the North.
6) Increased political tensions and unrest in the North of Ireland as the present regional arrangements increasingly fail, with the potential of a collapse in the institutions of the Belfast Agreement as we now know them.
7) Growing communal strife as Nationalists, from the Republican to the Garden Centre variety, find themselves increasingly at odds and frustrated with a Unionist population unable to come to terms with changing demographics.
8) The growing political presence of Sinn Féin across the country, possibly in coalition in Dublin, with the outside possibility of this spurring some of the main southern parties (Fianna Fáil or Labour?) to organise and stand in the north-east to counter SF’s electoral threat.
9) The commemorations of the Easter Rising in 2016 and War of Independence in 2019 raising political awareness and Republican attitudes in the Nationalist community north and south.
10) The increasing irrelevance of the border as a barrier to social, economic and cultural activity on the island combined with a growing All-Ireland union or polity from the bottom-up.
11) Increased numbers of Nationalist voters in the north-east with a corresponding decreased number of Unionist voters.
I could list several other reasons but there are a number of factors I believe will create a “perfect storm” over the next decade that has the potential to fatally weaken British rule in Ireland. Even if a border poll is lost, a referendum that yields c.45% in favour of reunification will make British rule unsustainable in the long-term. Nationalists do not need to achieve 50%+1 to deliver a death blow to “Northern Ireland”.
Aim for a 2019 poll but start campaigning and planning now.
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Seamus,
I think Camerons speech today will make the Scottish debate much more interesting. I am still confident and, dare I say it, invigorated. I believe it is game on at last
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SoS, as always, very perceptive.
Apologies for being tardy too the party but you guys have covered all of the bases here. I just thought that SoS’ point about not needing to get 50%+1 to be a good one. If a result of 40%+ was gotten then you would see a problem, most definitely.I could definitely see the govts moving towards joint authority or something else, who knows? but it shows this place is no longer really viable in so many ways what with demographics etc.
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“Nationalists do not need to achieve 50%+1 to deliver a death blow to “Northern Ireland”.”
Can you expand on this?
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“Does Otto, our resident alliance (I think) have any thoughts on this?”
Guilty Dub. I am a member. It’s a liberal party so it’s not actually tattooed on my breast.
I keep boring on about the fact that the Alliance party I know has a big clue in its name that tells you it isn’t an exclusively unionist party; that the last two general secretaries (and the new one is more of an executive role so don’t expect any opinion there) both said they’d favour a UI (all other things being equal) and I also agree with Ian (in fact I said it somewhere all on my own) that you can’t be a liberal and a die in a ditch unionist because the minute you put on one of those dodgy pinstripe suits and pledge yourself to SAVE THE UNION! you’re not a liberal (or really any kind of reasonable democrat) any more especially if your name is Mike.
On adding extra parties generally. We’re a pretty small region. In smaller jurisdictions in these islands (in the Isle of Man, Jersey and Guernsey for example) parties hardly matter at all. Your constituency Bangor has a long history of independents and our media are very indulgent of them. I’m not sure what the critical mass is where a party actually starts adding value to a politician’s own personal support and..er..charisma (?!). Sylvia’s done better out of a party than in it. Would she be better off in partnership with Basil, David and John or would they all be better as ‘united independents’ for now?
I was playing with the figures in Andrew G’s council area suggestion and in his slightly truncated Antrim & Down (he puts Newry and Banbridge in Armagh/Upper Bann) Alliance are now ahead of both the UUP and the SDLP so for Basil, John and maybe even David in Coleraine I would hope we wouldn’t be a disadvantage if any of them chose to join.
I’m not sure about Fitz’s feeling (hope) that adding more unionists to Alliance would tip it back to being more overtly unionist. I’m never sure if he means “ethnically” or constitutionally unionist. Alliance managed to welcome Ian, Paula and Harry without any sense of drift from the shared-future centre of gravity. We certainly won’t be designating as unionist on a party basis though I’m pretty relaxed personally about whether any MLA might want to out themselves as being a unionist or a nationalist provided they’re happy to make it make it clear that that’s secondary and conditional on the shared future social-integration project. Basil seems to do that every time he opens his mouth so that’s ok.
I’d love to have Basil in the party. When I hear someone from the UUP say he’s not a team player I’m even happier. We don’t need group think. I would be completely relaxed if he continued to designate as unionist. Choosing the United Community designation is a testament to faith in the shared future idea but it shouldn’t be a test of faith.
I have a feeling that the kind of people that would leave the UUP for Alliance would be more likely to change the centre of gravity regarding questions such as academic selection than the constitutional policy. If you wanted to do that why join at all. Actually on important questions Basil would help reinforce Alliance’s liberal wing. On Gay Marriage he was more robust than some of our own MLA’s.
I can’t find it now but I am sure somewhere I’ve read Basil recently saying he first voted UUP (not just joined) to support the GFA – which makes you wonder who he voted for before. I wouldn’t want him to risk his seat as I’d rather have him keep a reactionary out whatever party he chooses.
Wishy-washy enough for you Dub?
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Otto,
“Wishy-washy enough for you Dub?”
Lol, it wasn’t me made that comment I’m afraid.
I appreciate you nailing your colours though and for the avoidance of doubt I, myself, am not aligned to any particular party.
You raise some good points regarding independent thinkers and their place in politics generally and yes, North Down is a pretty independently minded place.
Do you have a link to Andrew G’s proposals? I’d like to take a closer look
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Here you go Dub,
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David McClarty is tonight talking openly about forming a new Unionist party. It’s on the view BBC 1 tonight at 10:35. The plates are shifting as predicted
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I’d still think there is not enough “depth”. Perhaps the most interesting thing on the View was Duncan Morrow….now happily at the University of Ulster and freed from the Community Relations quango. Alliance candidate for Europe????
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Saw some of the interview with David McClarty on news this morning.
Very impressive….good line on “outreach” but am I right in saying he is in the Unionist Forum? Or did he decline the invitation? Clearly if he…..or his proposed new party was involved with that, it would completely undermine him.
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http://hoboroadpoliticalhighway.blogspot.co.uk/2013/02/d-day-for-basil.html?m=1
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