This 3rd analysis by Faha of the new district councils will cover the Armagh-Banbridge-Craigavon council.
This new council encompasses all of the current Armagh and Craigavon councils, most of the current Banbridge council (except most of the Ballyward ward) and small sections of the Killyman and Moy wards of Dungannon council. The religious demographic breakdown is 51.74% Protestant, 42.95% Catholic, 0.8% Other and 4.52% None. This configuration of the council was not the original one. The original 7 council plan devised by the Boundary Commission included the Newry and Mourne council. When the Stormont Assembly was reconvened in 2007 SF supported the original 7 council proposal. The DUP was strongly opposed to this plan. With the inclusion of the overwhelmingly nationalist Newry council this would have been a nationalist majority council. The DUP found it unacceptable to transfer the unionist populations of Craigavon, Banbridge and Armagh to nationalist control. Therefore, they devised an alternative 11 council proposal, which removed Newry council from the original proposal. Instead of the transferring the entire unionist populations of Craigavon, Banbridge and Armagh to a nationalist controlled council a much more desirable outcome was achieved- the nationalist population of Armagh council was transferred to this new unionist majority council. SF supported the DUP proposal in the Executive and declined to use their veto (much to the surprise and delight of the DUP) and the DUP pulled off a major gerrymandering coup.
The following shows the change in the turnout for the nationalist and unionist parties comparing the 2005 and 2011 district council elections.
For the current Armagh, Banbridge and Craigavon district councils there are some obvious conclusions from this data.
#1 There was a large decrease in turnout between the 2005 and 2011 elections that affected both nationalist and unionist voters.
#2 Turnout is higher in rural areas compared to urban areas.
#3 Unionist turnout is significantly higher than nationalist turnout in all 3 Banbridge DEA’s.
#4 Unionist turnout and nationalist turnout in Armagh was equal in all 4 DEA’s in 2005. There was a large decline in nationalist turnout in The Orchard and Cusher DEA’s in 2011, such that unionist turnout was much higher in 2011.
#5 Unionist turnout is much higher than nationalist turnout in 3 of the Craigavon DEA’s, the exception is Loughside.
#6 For the new council, over 4,000 additional nationalist voters would have to vote in order to equal unionist turnout.
The percentage change in the party vote between 2005 and 2011 is as follows:
In Armagh there was a large decline in the DUP vote, mainly in the Cusher DEA. Half of this decline was due to a DUP councilor standing as an independent and the other half a defection of voters to the UUP. There was a slight decline in the overall nationalist vote in the 3 rural DEA’s but a larger decline in both the nationalist and unionist vote in Armagh City. However, there was a large decline in nationalist turnout in the rural DEA’s despite little change in the nationalist vote. What is happening here is similar to what happened in Dungannon. There has been a large immigration of ethnic nationals into Armagh City and native Catholics and Protestants have moved to the rural areas (and also from Newry Town and Portadown). The decline in the unionist turnout is occurring in the context of a unionist electorate that is growing only slightly. The nationalist electorate is growing rapidly in the rural areas and there is no longer any net emigration. Despite the large increase in the nationalist electorate, they do not vote, which is why the turnout is declining so rapidly.
In Banbridge, the overall number of nationalist votes increased between 2005 and 2011. The turnout decreased dramatically because there has been a large increase in the nationalist electorate. Catholic voters are no longer emigrating and there has been a large influx from Newry Town, Portadown, Craigavon, Lurgan and even Belfast (in the Dromore area). The DUP vote is also down by a large amount as they are losing votes to the UUP, TUV and stay at home voters. The decline in the SDLP vote in Banbridge Town is misleading since there were no SF candidate in 2005 and 1 SF and 1 former SF candidates in 2011.
In Craigavon, the situation is more complex. Much of the increase in the nationalist electorate in the Portadown and Craigavon DEA’s is due to the arrival of ethnic nationals, many of whom are Catholic. The decline in turnout among native Catholics is probably no greater than that for native Protestants in these DEA’s. Unlike Armagh and Banbridge, the SDLP vote has collapsed here. The UUP and DUP vote has also collapsed here, with the former staying home and the latter defecting to the TUV. There was no UUP candidate in Loughside in 2011 so the increased DUP vote includes UUP voters who had no other choice but to vote DUP.
The new council is also notable for the large foreign national population. There are approximately 11,000 adult foreign nationals of which 5,500 were on the December 2013 electoral register. Whichever nationalist party that is able to effectively target these voters will have an advantage in the election.
The new DEA’s bear little resemblance to the old DEA’s (see map).
ArmaghCity has been combined with most of Crossmore and Cusher has added half of The Orchard. BanbridgeTown and Knockiveagh have been combined. Most of Loughside has been combined with half of Lurgan with the Donaghcloney and Waringstown wards of the latter going into Dromore in the new Lagan River DEA. The demographics of the new DEA’s are as follows: The predicted election results are based on the 2011 turnout.
The current Armagh, Banbridge and Craigavon councils had this party makeup after the 2011 elections.
SF 16 SDLP 9 Alliance 2 UUP 19 DUP 18 Unionist 1
Total 65
The expected party strength in the new council based on 2011 turnout and the new DEA boundaries:
SF 9 SDLP 6 Alliance 0 UUP 11 DUP 14 Unionist 1
Total 41
The new council will have 25 fewer councilors and the net party loss would be.
SF -7 SDLP -3 Alliance -2 UUP -8 DUP -4
The new DEA boundaries are neutral on the nationalist side but definitely beneficial to the DUP and detrimental to the UUP on the unionist side. The new DEA boundaries, unlike the boundaries of the council itself, are actually favourable to the nationalist parties.
The election results would be very different if nationalist turnout equaled unionist turnout. There would be 5 additional nationalist seats in Armagh (SF), Portadown (either SF or SDLP), Lurgan (SDLP), Banbridge (SDLP), and Lagan River (SDLP). The unionist loss in Banbridge could be to Alliance instead of the SDLP. The unionist parties would still be guaranteed 21 seats with an absolute majority.
This council, with the new DEA boundaries, will have a unionist majority for at least 40 years. While the nationalist parties could pick up additional seats in the DEA’s mentioned above, it would require an additional nationalist demographic increase of 12.5% to 16.7% to obtain additional seats in those 5 DEA’s. Even at 3% per decade per DEA it would still take 40 years. The new Craigavon DEA has a slight nationalist majority but the electorate would need to increase at least another 12% for another seat, a demographic change that will take at least 40 years. The Cusher DEA is short another seat by 10% and it will be 40 years before that gap is closed. The DUP should be congratulated for the perfect gerrymander in the creation of the council boundaries.
"We in coming days may be" 
If the unionists have a majority for the next 40 years in the new CAB council, how does that pan out in the nationalists having a majority in NI in the next decade.
Seems a tad confusing.
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Yes there will be a nationalist majority in Northern Ireland within 10 years, but not in this district council. There may be a nationalist plurality in this council in 20 years but the nationalist turnout is so much lower than unionist turnout there will be a majority of unionist councilors for a long time. The number of councilors is determined by the DEA boundaries and the voter turnout- not the census.
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Faha, is there any more information on the background of people in the census who ascribed None for religion or religion brought up in? This figure seems exceptionally high in Lisburn and Bangor and PUL have put claim on most of this contingent. In the former I wonder is a large component of Nones from a nationalist or mixed religion background keeping their head low in estates that still contain the remnants of extreme loyalism. Yes in Poleglass and West Belfast its clear that an organised Catholic Church has succeeded in baptising all the wee ones but in SE Belfast I’ve strongly Nat friends but who are stridently secular and haven’t baptised any of their children. Is this unique or increasingly commonplace in areas where church influence is less strong?
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That is a difficult question to answer for several reasons. The None group is only 4.2% of the adult population but 10% of those under 18. The children of mixed marriages cannot explain the extra 5.8% in the under 18 group. I think there are also Protestant and Catholic parents who are not raising their children in any religion but they are more so from a Protestant background. If you read my post on the school census I noted that the school census is recording more Catholic and fewer Protestants and None than the 2011 census. How could this be ? The census office did a follow up survey of census respondents to check on the consistency of responses that people gave for all census questions. Some people who stated a certain religion on the census form stated they had no religion in the face to face follow up interview ( but usually gave the original religion as the religion brought up in). One of every 3 who stated their religion as None on the census form stated that they had a religion in the follow up interview. 40% of that 1/3 put down that they were not raised in any religion on the census form but in the follow up interview they gave an active religion ! In looking at the follow up survey it appears the None group is 30,000 less than the 101,000 recorded in the census. These inconsistent responses indicate that many of the None group do have a tenuous connection to a religion and these are probably the secular people you mention. Politically, there does not appear to be any difference between those who are truly None (never had any religious connection) and those None who have some religious identity. The Spotlight Poll in 2013 ( as well as other polls ) indicates that the most of the None with a religious identity give their identity as None when responding. The Spotlight poll showed that for 1st preference in an Assembly election 25% would vote unionist, 25% nationalist and 50% Alliance or Green. In contrast, those who give their religion as Protestant or Catholic only give Alliance-Green 10% of their 1st preferences. The None group has a strong preference for non sectarian parties but they are also less likely to vote.
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Thanks Faha, maybe I should have waited for your analysis of Belfast of the new Lisburn/C’reagh council but just had a spare few days and got stuck into the ward figures for religion/community background released in December. On my reckoning if Lisburn had of been left unchanged we’d be looking at a Nationalist/Unionist Plurality in 2031 with maybe even the nationalist/catholic edging it over PUL. Dunmurray Cross looks likely to add 6-8000 to the electorate. So looking more closely at those Nones they seem much more prevalent in Lisburn wards where the Catholic numbers are going up sharply. On my reckoning 12-14% unlike in staunch Protestant wards where I’m calculating 6-9%.
Imagine Lisburn being lost to Unionism 🙂 Nationalism really needs to come up with appealing alternatives to solidify the None alienation from Unionism.
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How do you work out the turnout of the two blocks?
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I use the 2011 census data (voting age population) for the 2011 election. This is very accurate since the election was less than 2 months after the census. For the 2005 election I used the 2001 census. This would be accurate for the unionist turnout since there has been little growth in the unionist electorate. It overestimates the nationalist turnout slightly since there was some growth in the nationalist electorate between 2001 and 2005.
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I believe this is the most interesting of the new councils and I don’t think it’ll remain under unionist control for more than two electoral cycles, three at the most.
I think you should at least consider the possibility that a share of your missing voters are resident in the US, Australia, Canada, NZ, England and elsewhere.
Emigration is an inevitable consequence of economic depression.
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FF,
Emigration would not have been a factor in the 2011 election. The census was March 27, 2011 and the election May 5, 2014. There would have been minimal immigration in the 5 weeks between the census and the election. The census office did not include people in the census who emigrated prior to March 27, 2011, only people who were actually resident in Northern Ireland on that date. Yes, some of those who emigrated prior to the census may return in the next 10 years but we will not know if this will occur until the 2021 census. There is a bias against nationalist voters in the manner in which the wards were devised. Armagh (69% Catholic) has the highest average ward electorate and Lagan River (14.7% Catholic) is low so if the wards had equal electorate there would be some nationalist areas of Armagh transferred to Cusher which would eventually result in a 2nd nationalist seat there. Unless the nationalist parties insist on legislation that would require wards of equal electorate this will never occur. The DUP are experts when it comes to these matters and the nationalist parties are amateurs. The Boundary Commission did correct the Loughside anomaly in devising the new DEA’s so if nationalist turnout increases to the level of unionist turnout SF and the SDLP could win 5 of the 7 seats in the new Lurgan DEA.
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I take your point about the census v 2011 election. However, the ass fell out of the economy in 2007/8. Emigration took off and never looked back.
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Another thing to be factored in is the under-representation in terms of seats of DEAs such as Loughside. Putting this straight should see a seat or two gained from the outset.
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It is said to be a pleasant area, so would expect Alliance to get a few seats.
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From what I am told Alliance are targeting this Council area, and are canvassing very actively across its entirety, hoping to add vote share here considerably, and pick up a lot of Councillors to hold the balance of power. There is quite a good team there this time out, and a lot of energy.
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Elliott,
That’s nice. Where exactly do you see any gains for alliance?
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Anywhere where one ‘side’ is likely to be just short of a quota. So Lagan River, Banbridge, possibly both Lurgan and Portadown. Depends also on getting candidates who can pull enough 1st preferences to hang on until the later counts.
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Mr Anderson….its a VERY pleasant area….even more so as I live in the area.
I dont quite understand your elitist comment that it is pleasant and therefore Alliance Unionists should pick up seats.
I have lived in this house since 1994 and this is the only DEA I have lived in since 1982.
I have never seen an Alliance person…ever..
The other night the Alliance Unionists dropped a leaflet thru my door.
Thankfully I didn’t know they were there.
Far be it from me to be cynical but they dont have any presence in this area. And their canvassing is because the area is being joined with another DEA where the Alliance Unionists have a councillor and he’s obviously worried about losing his seat.
You may wish to read my blogs on the subject but please dont try and comment because I dont allow comments from undemocratic parties.
if they ever come back to my door, I will be forced to consider a restraining order.
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Heh heh. The games up, Fitzy – Stratagem know where you live.
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Its ok.
I have left a sealed envelope with my Solicitor.
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Out of a 41 council nationalists will get 16 seats, Alliance 2/3 and unionists 22/3
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Apropos of nothing, my (English) wife and I moved to within this area a couple of years ago. I sent off our completed electoral registration forms, where she had put her nationality as British and I had put mine as Irish. Hers came through no bother, but I was required to present myself at Banbridge Electoral Office with a copy of my passport before they would add me to the electoral register. Anyone would think they didn’t want additional nationalist voters in this area…
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Classic – thanks for sharing RJC.
Looks like they think they can stop the tide from coming in – how futile.
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I hope you took that up with an elected rep, RJC. Ridiculous carry-on altoghether!
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Is it true the new councils will be elected every 5 years instead of the present 4 years.
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I havn’t heard that PT and can’t find any reference to it
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http://www.endgameinulster.blogspot.ie/2014/02/school-census-20132014.html?m=1
Latest School Census released.
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We are looking at all the data. I hope I clearly state exactly which data I quote and where I got it?
I agree immigration is now a significant factor but as long as the correllation between demographics and actual votes holds, as it currently does, then we can draw some conclusions and look at future possibilities.
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It seems that you’re wilfully conflating “catholic” with “nationalist”. How else can Polish immigrants find themselves in the Irish Nationalist column?
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andrewgdoton you make a fair point but Im guessing taking immigrants out of the stats can be quite time consuming and why stop there we could look at several other groupings that wouldnt automatically designate as Nationalist or Unionist or even vote for that matter.The point is there is still a striking correlation between religion and voting pattern in this country so it still seems valid to use these stats to give us an idea. On another note Im guessing a few more years of polish flag burning at the annual orangefest might make Polish immigrants Irish nationalist after all.
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I just think it’s best to be clear what we’re measuring. The assumption that catholic = nationalist may or may not continue to hold, so you shouldn’t casually switch from one to the other. If you want to demonstrate that this is true, go ahead – but this should be a conclusion rather than an axiom. Especially when we know there are plenty of Catholics who aren’t even Irish.
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As Catholic non-nationals gradually get absorbed into the broader Catholic community it seems logical to infer that they will imbibe the general political worldview of the said community.
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But do they? The local primary school in Belfast here is in a very British/Northern Irish outlook-area, and there are loads of kids from different religions/nationalities/racial groups happily going there and walked round to school by their parents and mixing in with the ‘indigenous’ UK/Northern Irish kids. These broadly ‘immigrant’ kids don’t look to me like they are getting absorbed into the ‘Catholic political worldview’. In fact, we are at the stage now where a good number of these ‘immigrant’ kids are actually Northern Irish born to their foreign national parents.
My general view – we are medium term heading toward a 3 bloc NI with nationalism the slightly largest, with the balance being held by a middle ground bloc, who will be roughly equal in size to a reduced unionist bloc.
Who knows over time, perhaps the mid ground might even become the slight largest.
Whatever, NI in a low-key GBunion will likely endure, and there is a hell of a lot to be said for this. I can see that situation suiting-enough the greater number of people in constitutional terms.
The polarised views of ‘must have a United Ireland’ or ‘British as Finchley’ just aren’t a reflection of reality in Northern Ireland, and so a middle way imo will come to pass.
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It will certainly kick in at second generation level.
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