There has been quite a lot of speculation as to the new DEA boundaries and the likely electoral results as well as the demographic balance and changes in each. As a companion piece to Faha’s series I have prepared below some edited spreadsheets detailing the demographics across these new council areas. All the figures are from the NISRA website here.
The figures are based upon the 2011 Census and 2012 Births & Deaths figures.
The first thing I want to look at is the actual demographic breakdown applied to these new DEA’s. We can clearly see the likely majority Unionist and Nationalist Councils although, given that the results are 3 years behind us I would suggest that Causeway and Armagh require only a swing of 7% and 4.5% respectively to change the balance.
Secondly I thought it would be useful to look at the Births and Deaths over the past 5 Years. Rather than produce a mass of figures I have simply added the figures to produce net changes resulting (Below):
And finally, the below data is an analysis of the change in population, births and deaths expressed as a percentage of the population in each area during 2012:
It is interesting to note that it is primarily the nationalist Council areas with the highest population growth and birth rates as well as lower death rates. I hope you find the above information useful. If further information or figures are required I’m sure you won’t be shy in asking folks!