By Faha
LucidTalk released a NI”Tracker”Poll on December 5th. The polling was conducted from November 30th through December 3rd.
The questions covered the UK governments EU withdrawal agreement as well as questions on a Border Poll with 3 different scenarios.
A total of 1,335 respondents were included.
The raw totals showed an under-representation from the Nationalist community and an overrepresentation from the Neutral community (in respect to constitutional position) so a weighted adjustment was done.
The raw total from the Unionist community was fine and did not need to be adjusted. The weighted percentages by constitutional position were:
Unionist 47.3%
Nationalist 45.5%
Neutral 7.1%
These are self-identifying positions and religion background was not included.
In one scenario voters were given 5 options on the UK governments EU withdrawal agreement if there was a referendum on the current options (“People’s Vote”).One option was for the UK to remain in the EU and the results by constitutional position were:
Nationalist Neutral Unionist
#1 Remain in EU 90% 78% 21%
#2 Leave-No Deal 2% 4% 40%
#3 Leave-Better Deal
More distant from EU 1% 2% 26%
#4 Leave-Current deal 4% 6% 7%
#5 Leave-Closer to
EU than current deal 1% 5% 2%
In another scenario only 3 options were presented.
Nationalist Neutral Unionist
#1 Remain in EU 94% 81% 29%
#2 Leave-No Deal 4% 6% 44%
#3 Leave-Better Deal
More distant from EU 2% 12% 27%
Finally, a scenario was presented with only 2 options.
Nationalist Neutral Unionist
#1 Remain in EU 95% 87% 31%
#2 Leave-No Deal 5% 13% 69%
Voters from the nationalist community overwhelmingly wish for the UK to Remain in the EU.
There is a low level of support among voters in the unionist community (21%) for the UK to Remain in the EU. Indeed, 2/3 of voters from the unionist community prefer a No Deal Brexit or a Hard Brexit.
Those voters from the Neutral community are almost as much in favour of Remaining in the EU as those from the nationalist community.
What is interesting is that if there is only an option of Remaining in the EU or Leave the EU with No Deal almost 70% of those from the unionist community prefer a No Deal Brexit.
Now you should understand that the poll is referring to those who identify as belonging to the unionist community.
There are significant percentages of voters from both the nationalist and unionist communities that vote for nonsectarian parties and those voters are very unlikely to prefer a No Deal Brexit.
I estimate, based on other recent polls, that if the cross tabs were available in this poll, that up to 80% of voters from the unionist community that VOTE for Unionist parties prefer a No Deal Brexit over Remaining in the EU if those are the only 2 options.
The DUP are criticized for not representing the views of the people of Northern Ireland. However, they do represent the views of their own voters.
There were a question asked on a Border Poll with 3 scenarios. One was a scenario in which there is no Brexit and the UK remains within the EU.
United Ireland NI Remain in UK Undecided
Total 29% 60% 11%
Nationalist 62% 22% 14%
Unionist 0% 97% 3%
Neutral 2% 58% 40%
Of the total 11% Undecided only 1% are from the unionist community.
Nevertheless, even if most of those undecideds from the nationalist and neutral communities voted for a United Ireland there would be over 60% of voters who would vote to remain in the UK. These views are basically identical to polls from 15 to 20 years ago.
Another scenario asked voters how they would vote if a Brexit occurred with the UK governments’ current EU withdrawal agreement.
United Ireland NI Remain in UK Undecided
Total 48% 48% 4%
Nationalist 92% 5% 3%
Unionist 3% 92% 5%
Neutral 54% 29% 17%
Under the proposed current EU withdrawal agreement there are equal number of voters who prefer a United Ireland or to Remain in the UK. The current EU agreement is basically a very soft Brexit.
You will notice that there is a dramatic shift in those voters from the Neutral community with Brexit and support for a United Ireland increasing from 2% to 54%.
In an actual Border Poll a United Ireland vote would have a slight majority since 16 and 17 year olds are not included in this poll.
Also there are very few foreign nationals included in the poll, an electorate that strongly favours staying in the EU.
Another scenario asked voters how they would vote if the UK governments EU withdrawal agreement was defeated in the UK parliament and no deal was negotiated with the EU.
United Ireland NI Remain in UK Undecided
Total 55% 42% 3%
Nationalist 98% 0% 2%
Unionist 11% 86% 3%
Neutral 70% 14% 16%
Clearly, under a No Deal scenario there would be a substantial majority in favour of a United Ireland.
After accounting for the Undecided the vote would be approximately 56% for a United Ireland and 44% against.
You will notice that these results are identical to the EU referendum results so the vote in favour of a United Ireland is basically determined by Brexit preferences.
Some may be skeptical that 11% of voters from the unionist community would vote for a United Ireland. However, the majority of that 11% are voters from the unionist community that vote for Alliance, Green, SDLP or independents.
Voters from the unionist community that VOTE for unionist parties are likely less than 5% of voters who vote for unionist parties and who would vote for a United Ireland in a No Deal scenario.
I would also note that these polls only include 1% of their respondents from the ethnic national population of Northern Ireland. Currently ethnic nationals are 5% of the registered voters and 9% of the voting age population. EU nationals will be overwhelmingly in favour of Remaining in the EU. They were permitted to vote in the Scottish Independence Referendum.
Those age 16 and 17 should also be allowed to vote in a Border Poll as they were in the Scottish Independence Referendum. Taking these extra voters into account a United Ireland Vote would be 60% in favour of a United Ireland with a 100% turnout of voters in a No Deal scenario and 54% in favour of a United Ireland if the current EU agreement passed in Westminster.
There is a similar trend in Scotland. Panelbase did a recent poll for the Sunday Times among Scottish voters. Only 47% are in favour of an Independent Scotland. This increases to 53% if the current EU agreement is passed. It increase to 59% in a No Deal scenario. The latter two are basically identical to Northern Ireland preferences in the same scenarios.
At this time all political parties in Northern Ireland and the Republic of Ireland should be demanding a Border Poll if Brexit occurs in late March 2019.
According to the Good Friday Agreement and St. Andrews Agreement the British government may schedule a Border Poll if it appears that a majority of voters in Northern Ireland would favour reunification with the Republic of Ireland.
All opinion polls in the previous 6 months indicate that this is the true if Brexit occurs.
When should a Border Poll be held?
I believe that it should be scheduled for June and no later than October.
The reason is that businesses in Northern Ireland that trade with EU nations need to know if their trade in goods and services with EU nations will be affected in a detrimental manner as soon as possible. Businesses often operate on narrow profit margins. After 2 or 3 months some of these companies in Northern Ireland could be unprofitable and need to make a decision to relocate to Ireland or other EU nations in order to have access to their EU markets. They cannot wait for a Border Poll that could be held 10, 5 or even 1 years after Brexit.
Already some Northern Ireland companies have indicated that they will need to move their operations to the Republic of Ireland in order to have access to the EU market.
It is unlikely that the Conservative government would agree to a Border Poll.
Their coalition partner, the DUP, is strongly opposed to one. One of the provisions of the Good Friday and St. Andrews agreement is that the Northern Ireland Secretary is required to call another election if no government if formed in Northern Ireland within 30 days of an Assembly election.
The last Assembly election was held in March 2017 and the deadline for the Northern Ireland Secretary to call an election is almost 2 years overdue.
The point is that the British government will ignore the provisions of the Good Friday and St. Andrews agreement and will refuse to schedule a Border Poll.
However, behind the scenes pressure can be applied to the British government by the EU nations to schedule a Border Poll after Brexit.
Any future concessions by the EU in negotiations with the British government should be contingent on the timely scheduling of a Border Poll.
David said:
Great insight as usual. I maybe would have preferred a bit more in regards the no Brexit figures as those figures are quite alarming for a UI at 29% and that scenario could easily happen with a people’s vote. You mention the numbers were like that 15 to 20 years ago. Do I suspect you think there is a problem there as those numbers worry me as a Nationalist? I thought at this stage we may not need to rely on Brexit and the Rubicon may have been crossed.
Thanks
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Cuchulainn said:
As a nationalist, I would let the dust settle after a return to the EU and work for a few years on building discussion on the operation of a UI before having a border poll. Brexit shows the danger of polls with ill-defined outcomes.
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Faha said:
For many years polls have shown that 15% to 20% of voters from the nationalist community prefer to remain in the UK and support for a United Ireland was in the 2% range for the unionist community. Brexit has caused a reversal in those numbers. Now nationalist support for remaining in the UK is in the 2% range and that for a United Ireland is around 15% for the unionist community (average between this poll and previous poll). Northern Ireland can unite with the Republic of Ireland, the English can have their Hard Brexit and everyone will be happy-except for the DUP. There is no need for a Northern Ireland backstop if Northern Ireland is no longer part of the UK.
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An Sionnach Fionn said:
Currently ethnic nationals are 5% of the registered voters and 9% of the voting age population. EU nationals will be overwhelmingly in favour of Remaining in the EU. They were permitted to vote in the Scottish Independence Referendum.
Those age 16 and 17 should also be allowed to vote in a Border Poll as they were in the Scottish Independence Referendum.
Which is why the northern DUP/UUP/TUV/PUP/Tories/UKIP would fight tooth and nail against any lowering of the voting age to 16. Even having EU voters voting in a plebiscite would be a bone of contention.
The polls are looking good, and I suspect that in a no-deal Brexit scenario a reunification vote would squeak through in a border poll. However I equally suspect that we are going to hear a lot more talk in the coming months of super-majorities and other gerrymandering tricks to undermine the point of any future referendum.
Unionist leaders and their allies are not going to permit a vote. Especially not under the presently understood electoral conditions.
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An Sionnach Fionn said:
British journalism at its finest…
https://twitter.com/andrejpwalker/status/1072105718256427009
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seandanaher2017 said:
Faha thanks. I put my arguments for a UI here a while ago http://www.progressivepulse.org/ireland/reuniting-with-our-friends-in-the-north – I hope there is something useful
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boondock said:
But all these recent lucid talk polls are rubbish according to the DUP. The panel is full of political nerds (lie), mainly republicans (lie and even if true the results are weighted) not to mention the fact their previous polls are so inaccurate (lie usually correct to 1 %). Sure everyone knows that millions of loyalists dont have access to the internet. Its much better to rely on pre brexit polls carried out face to face over several months that are much more reflective of how an actual election works lol. In fact the1981 life and times survey said ulster was british so what more evidence do you need?😂
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boondock said:
https://www.newsletter.co.uk/news/opinion/province-may-never-get-a-catholic-majority-at-all-1-8738275
Perfect example of the head in sand thinking in today’s newsletter. We have one academic slagging off another academic and at the same time making a complete ass of himself. The fact that he once was an advisor to Trimble who is now out flanking big Jim Allister on most issues should give us some background understanding as to wtf this guy is on about
First point I agree with him. There will never be a Catholic majority in Northern Ireland. As NI becomes more secular this is inevitable so well done sir.
Now it gets messy. We go straight to our old friend the life and times survey and reassure the newsletter audience that only 20% of the population support a UI. No mention anywhere of the countless recent brexit specific polls which show this to be complete bullsh1t.
Next we have the usual statement that yes the Catholic population is growing but a good percentage of the Catholic population is foreign born. Again there is absolutely no mention that the Protestant population has almost an equal foreign born make up.
He correctly states that we can’t be certain of the constitutional preference of people from Poland, Lithuania, Portugal and the Philippines but considering 3 of his own examples are in a the EU its not difficult to hazard a guess in the event of brexit
Next whopper. He claims some Protestants clearly voted remain however it seems clear that they were voting for the UK to remain in the EU but not necessarily NI to remain if the UK was out. How he came to this conclusion analysing the crA@p deeply flawed survey is a mystery when he could have used any of the other recent polls that quite clearly show the others ie non-unionist/nationalist but including Catholics and PROTESTANTS overwhelming supporting UI in the event of any form of brexit.
Next he claims that many Catholics support the union because of the NHS, social security etc etc.
Does the guy read newspapers? Not a week goes by were we don’t here about the mess the NHS is in and do we even mention universal credit?
He also claims congested roads and hotel building projects being are a sign of prosperity. OR its a sign that the road infrastructure has been under funded and that hotels are being built because there were hardly any to begin with.
The only usual rot this guy avoided was the usual claim that all the non religion people on the census are actually lapsed Protestants who will all come out and vote to save the day when it matters. They all just happened to fill in the census forms incorrectly and left community background blank and are definitely not actually children of mixed marriages, people of other faiths and newly arrived immigrants.
The guy allegedly is an academic.
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hoboroad said:
Did no one notice Mrs May subtle hint of a border poll. Business doesn’t want a hard border on the island of Ireland. So is she saying to the DUP to wind there necks in or else. Who is ordering these opinion polls anyway. As they say in China may you live in Interesting times.
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zig70 said:
The effects of Brexit on nationalist voting will be short lived. Still need something to get a larger portion of non voters out and a better range of politics than is currently on offer. It’s basic brand management. SF were willing to support armed action for a UI but supporting the SDLP/FF/FG even covertly is a bridge too far? Doesn’t make sense to a pragmatist. The Russians seem miles ahead of us in this sphere.
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Faha said:
The Westminster party arithmetic could result in a Border Poll since the Conservatives do not need the DUP if Northern Ireland leaves the UK. There are 650 MP’s and SF (7 seats) and the speaker do not vote so there are 642 voting MP’s for any legislation. The Conservatives have 317 MP’s but need 322 to pass any legislation which is why they need the 10 DUP votes. However, if Northern Ireland votes to leave the UK the 18 Northern Ireland MP’s are no longer present in Westminster and there are only 632 MP’s and 631 voting excluding the speaker. Only 316 are needed to pass legislation. The Conservatives would have a 317 to 314 edge in any vote. Perhaps this would be an incentive to call a Border Poll and rid themselves of the backstop requirement and their dependence on the DUP.
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SamJ said:
What a pity horseman passed on when did.
As a citizen of the republic I have to say that some of the psephology here may be premature, if predicated on the assumption that the southern electorate will accede to unity overnight. That isn’t going to happen. People will expect and will insist on a considerable period of preparation, not just consent. We’ve all seen how consent without agreement on the details played out with Brexit, and we are not stupid.
However, it is clear that the game is up for the English establishment domination of the UK. That ship cannot now avoid the iceberg. It’s been a long time coming.
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Deborah said:
Sinn Féin deserves a lot of credit for taking on a lot of human rights issues left behind by other parties.
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PaulG said:
SF needs to prioritise representing it’s supporters ahead of those it wants to support it. Otherwise they will repeat their mistake of the Presidential election and lose half their base. They can’t afford to be so presumtuous again with FF and Tobin entering the market.
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hoboroad said:
https://m.belfasttelegraph.co.uk/news/northern-ireland/sdlp-responds-after-councillor-defects-to-exsinn-fein-mans-new-party-37687023.html
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PaulG said:
Yes, perfect timing for Toibin. He can not only appeal to traditional, socially conservative republicans who seem unwanted by Sinn Fein, but also to those SDLP voters who are similarly alienated from the liberal policies of their party and their prospective FF suitors or who simply can’t bring themselves to vote SF, which would be tantamount to admitting that they’ve been wrong all these years.
.
The SDLP base will likely split into at least 3 major groupings. Those who endorse the suicide pact with FF, those who defect to Toibin, SF or Alliance and those who try to limp on as a centre left grouping in the forlorn hope of either UK or RoI Labour coming in to validate their stubborness.
It would be interesting to hear the views on this, of the SDLP supporters who regularly contribute here.
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hoboroad said:
https://m.belfasttelegraph.co.uk/news/northern-ireland/ministers-discussed-possibility-of-irish-border-poll-in-event-of-nodeal-brexit-reports-37696467.html
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PaulG said:
Hardline Tory and DUPer Bexiteers still don’t get it.
Sure, you can have your freedom and independence, but you don’t always get to take your hostages with you.
In 1921 they insisted on taking Fermanagh and Tyrone with their hostage majority Nationalist populations, uninterested in how it exposed the fallacy of any democratic independence argument they made for N.E. Ireland.
Those Hostages have now helped to almost form a Nationalist majority in the whole of NI and this time, along with the many smart Prods, they’ll be breaking away rather than be dragged back into Dark Ages of the DUP and Rees-Mogg dystopia.
It won’t be long before the Scottish hostages also make a break for a progressive future in the EU. How long after that will London’s already non-white, multi-cultural majority, team up with white pro EU progressives, to declare London an Independent City State and apply for a position within or linked to the EU, as best suits a Financial City State, unencumbered by rural, regional or maritime concerns?
Congratulations Nigel, Gregory, Sammy et al, you’re bigotry, jingoism and rank stupidity will very shortly succeed in smashing the Union. Hats off to you! We couldn’t have done it better ourselves.
I hope you like Rochdale or Grimsby or wherever you have to move to, to continue your delusion that you’re God’s Chosen People, Master of the Waves, Defenders of the Realm, Creators of Democracy and Saviours of Civilisation.
Slan Abhaile.
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hoboroad said:
They reacon the Queen of England might get pulled in to all of this. In order to overturn Speaker Bercows acceptance of the Grieve amendment. A Real constitutional crisis could be only weeks away.
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PaulG said:
FF & SDLP announcement:
A partnership between a party which collaborated in it’s own oppression and a party which has betrayed every just cause and principle of a democratic republic.
Whitehall could not have dreamed up two better marriage partners.
Those who fought and died for Freedom, Equality and Unity, are now to be demonised, sidelined and portrayed as the enemies of what they sacrificed themselves for, while the cowardly ‘choir boys’ and the ‘cute hoor’ chancers, swagger forth to claim the laurels from the fallen.
And so it must be.
Those who bore witness, must bite their tongues and let the new generations believe the myths and lies of the charlatans, so that the north’s protestants can make common cause with Dublin’s ruling classes who have persistently turned their backs on partitions victims. But it will be the quickest route to unity and then the focus will fall on the FF/FG distortion of the Republic.
The sacrifice and struggle will continue. Justice will prevail. We shall overcome and our day will come.
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hoboroad said:
https://m.belfasttelegraph.co.uk/opinion/news-analysis/don-anderson-why-londons-doomsday-plan-for-northern-ireland-may-not-have-gone-away-37746508.html
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hoboroad said:
https://m.belfasttelegraph.co.uk/news/northern-ireland/revealed-new-figures-on-religious-breakdown-in-northern-ireland-working-age-protestants-drop-by-14-37769786.html
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hoboroad said:
I think the DUP have been fundamental, if Brexit gets delivered, it will be because of the DUP.
Aaron Banks speaking at a DUP dinner
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Feckitt said:
The Irish News have lead today with an article which suggests Catholic and Protestant populations are nearly at parity. It then clarifys this in the article that the working age population is just slightly more Protestant.
Bangordub as the resident demographic expert, can you please confirm my understanding that the total catholic population of NI was expected to overtake the total protestant population approximately in early 2017?
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bangordub said:
Feckitt,
I think the total nationalist population now exceeds the unionist total. Neither is in a majority position just now. I’m working on a blog about the Labour force report referenced by the Irish news, just now and there is some startling detail in it.
Here’s a teaser 😉
“There were 643,000 Protestants aged 16 and over in 1990; in 2017 this figure has
decreased, to 612,000. Over this period, the number of Catholics increased by 165,000, or
38%, from 440,000 to 605,000. The number of people aged 16 and over classified as
‘other/non-determined’ has more than trebled from 63,000 to 245,000 between 1990 and
2017”
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bangordub said:
New blog now up
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hoboroad said:
Just when you thought it couldn’t get any more fraught – Lord Trimble plans to take govt to court over the Brexit deal claiming the Irish protocol inc the backstop contravenes the Good Friday agreement
laura kuenssberg on Twitter
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hoboroad said:
https://metro.co.uk/2019/02/12/nhs-stockpiling-body-bags-prepare-no-deal-brexit-reveals-tory-minister-8574311/
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hoboroad said:
“It is difficult to give a helping hand to people who stand with both hands in their pockets,” The Danish Prime Minister
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hoboroad said:
https://www.express.co.uk/news/uk/1099752/Brexit-News-update-latest-today-vote-second-referendum-no-deal-theresa-may
The men in white coats took Maggie away.
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hoboroad said:
EU agree extension until 22nd of May
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