After an electric election day we face the count now.
I’m opening this thread so that everyone can post whatever gossip or information they may have to share.
It appears that the nationalist electorate may have woken up finally and we could be in for a very interesting day.
Will we have Michelle as First Minister? (Not that that is important), Will the DUP go into meltdown? What happens next?
Lucid Talk are predicting an increase in the total nationalist vote to 40% with a 3% increase in the Alliance-Green vote and almost a 3% decrease in the unionist vote (46.6%). The entire decrease in the unionist vote is at the expense of the DUP. UUP voters are still unwilling to give their 2nd preferences to the DUP.
In last year’s Lucid Talk poll the nationalist vote was 1.5% higher than what was predicted. So the nationalist vote could be 41.5% and the unionist 45.5%.
That means Unionism is a minority in this juristiction.
Tomorrow might just be very interesting.
author32 said:
That’s if turnout is equal among the two communities. Signs are Nationalist turnout may not only match but exceed Unionist turnout. It would be quite a turn-around from the previous elections since 2014. 43% SF/SDLP/PBP too ambitious?
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Robin Aindriú Mac Eochaidh said:
Lets not get ahead of ourselves. personally I think we will all be surprised at how well the Alliance and Greens will do. I think this election will be all about them.
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boondock said:
Any link to your lucid talk figures?
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Robin Aindriú Mac Eochaidh said:
Just go to Lucid Talk website, its all there.
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WilliamMcGowan said:
Looks like it might be a good election for Nationalism after 10 years of decline and disappointment. Who would have thought a botched heating scheme and a crocodile remark would have galvanised people who had turned their backs on voting to vote again. Here’s hoping and praying for some change tomorrow!
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gendjinn said:
An SF First Minister required a perfect storm of increased Nationalist turnout, decreased Unionist turnout, a decrease in DUP 1st prefs and a decrease in 2nd pref transfers.
Lucid Talk has shown UUP transfers to DUP have dropped dramatically and DUP 1st prefs are down per this and the last few blogs. We see increased Nationalist turnout. Maybe even decreased Unionist turnout.
It is looking like SF are rolling 5s and 6s and the DUP are set up to roll 1s and 2s. The major caveat I would throw out is the shy DUP vote, that Lucid Talk drop in support may not be as large as it seems, or it may well turn out to be larger if DUP supporters just don’t bother to turn up.
A perfect storm could yield SF 26 and DUP 25, it’s a lot more likely on these turnout reports than it was yesterday but still really unlikely. Good thing I bought the Ardbeg at CostCo and it comes with a 50ml bottle of their Uigeadail
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hoboroad said:
Votes polled in Belfast West 40,930; turnout 66.76%
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hoboroad said:
Votes polled in Foyle 45,317; turnout 65.00%
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Faha said:
That is 5,500 higher than 2016.
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hoboroad said:
63.02% turnout in East `Belfast.
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Faha said:
Votes in East Derry 42,248 which is up 8,000 from 2016! Belfast East 40,828 which is up 3,500 from 2016. West Belfast vote is up 4,500 from 2016.
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gendjinn said:
Is East Derry shaping up to be SF 2; DUP 2; AL 1; or will the SDLP/UUP sneak a seat from the DUP?
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hoboroad said:
Mid-Ulster turn-out 72.38% huge rise from 58% last time
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Faha said:
It was 50,228, up 9,500 from 2016!
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Faha said:
Belfast South had 43,465 votes, up 6,500 from 2016.
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hoboroad said:
Votes polled in North Antrim 48,518; turnout 63.22%
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Faha said:
That is up 7,500 from 2016.
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boondock said:
Big turnouts in mid ulster and west tyrone, could be very bad news for the second unionist candidate in each constituency
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hoboroad said:
North Down turn out up to 59% from 50% last year.
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Faha said:
It was 38,174, up almost 6,000 from 2016.
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Faha said:
West Tyrone had 44,907 votes which is up 6,000 from 2016.
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Faha said:
South Antrim at 42,726 which is up 7,500 from 2016
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Faha said:
East Antrim at 37,836 which is up 5,000 from 2016.
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hoboroad said:
The word on Twitter is that the Unionist vote has split in Upper Bann
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Faha said:
North Belfast vote was 42,119, up 5,500 from 2016.
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Faha said:
Fermanagh South Tyrone vote was 53,075 up almost 6,000 from 2016.
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hoboroad said:
62.4 Upper Bann turnout
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Faha said:
Total vote was 52,174, up 6,500 from 2016.
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Faha said:
Newry and Armagh at 55,625, up almost 8,000 from 2016!
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Faha said:
Strangford vote was 39,239, up over 6,000 from 2016.
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boondock said:
Early tallies mid ulster suggest possible 3 SF 1 sdlp and 1 DUP, hope thats a sign of whats to come from the west. Shame on Unionist though falling for Arlenes scare tactics
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Faha said:
Lagan Valley vote was 45,440 which is up 6,500 from 2016.
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Faha said:
And the final one is South Down at 49,934 which is up almost 9,000 from 2016.
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Faha said:
The final vote total is 812,783. After allowing for spoiled and invalid votes the total will be in the 805,000 range which is 110,000 above the 2016 election and 15,000 above the Brexit referendum. It could be near the 1998 Assembly election. Potentially a very bad day for the DUP but we will need the 1st count to confirm this.
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boondock said:
SDLP not doing well in West Belfast and South Down of all places but obviously transfers will play a huge roll.
PBP look as if they are getting a bit of a hammering and quite right too brexit -what were they thinking?
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hoboroad said:
South Down early tallies
SF 39.4% (+8.3)
SDLP 25% (-6.4)
DUP 14.6% (+2.3)
All 9.2% (+3.8)
UUP 7.9% (-0.6);
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boondock said:
East Antrim in
http://nielections.org.uk/northernireland/s17/eastantrim.php
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boondock said:
McMullan in with a shout I reckon on those figures
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PaulG said:
If he makes it, SF could get 30 seats
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Faha said:
North Down is the first constituency that can be safely predicted.
SF 1.57%
SDLP 1.80%
Alliance 18.59%
Green 13.72%
UUP 21.5%
DUP 37.5%
Unionist 2.0%
Other 3.3%
The DUP are over 2 quotas and the UUP and Alliance are over 1 quota. Green are 3% short of a quota but will reach a quota on SF and SDLP transfers and Alliance surplus. Net result 1 DUP loss.
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Faha said:
East Belfast is now the 2nd constituency that can be safely predicted.
SF 2.9%
SDLP 0.6%
Alliance 31.4%
Green 3.6%
UUP 13.1%
DUP 37.6%
PUP 6.6%
TUV 2.3%
Alliance are 2% short of 2 quotas but will elect 2 on SF, SDLP and Green transfers.
UUP will elect one on Green, PUP and TUV transfers. DUP will elect 2.
Douglas of DUP 1st preference was 4,431 and Newton at 4,729. Allen of UUP at 5,275. Probably Douglas will lose so net loss of 1 for DUP.
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hoboroad said:
Nobody elected on first count in North Belfast
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hoboroad said:
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hoboroad said:
Alex Attwood eliminated in West Belfast
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boondock said:
I want a strong SDLP but quite frankly the likes of attwood and kelly needed to be binned years ago. They keep failing why persevere with them, a brick with and SDLP badge would get more votes
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hoboroad said:
Arlene Foster tops poll in Fermanagh and South Tyrone – but does not reach quota in first count
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Faha said:
I am going to call 4 more constituencies and I will do them separately. The 1st is Mid Ulster.
SF 52.75%
SDLP 12.92%
WP 0.44%
Alliance 2.05%
Green 0.5%
Other 0.5%
UUP 9.1%
DUP 19.26%
TUV 2.5%
SF are well over 3 quota so will keep all 3. SDLP will be elected on SF surplus and WP, Alliance, Green and other transfers. UUP will be less than 14% after all transfers almost 3% short of a quota. UUP loss here.
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Faha said:
West Tyrone
SF 48.1%
SDLP 14.2%
Nationalist 1.95%
Alliance 2.8%
Green 0.9%
Other 1.25%
UUP 8.24%
DUP 20.45%
TUV 1.9%
Unionist 0.15%
2 SF are slightly over quota on 1st count. SF only needs another 1.9% to reach 3 full quotas and will receive that from nationalist, Green and other transfers and a few Alliance. SDLP will reach quota on Alliance, Green, nationalist and other transfers. UUP lose a seat here as even with all unionist and some Alliance transfers they will be no higher than 14% over 2.7% short of a quota. Net loss 1 UUP and SF hold all 3.
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Faha said:
Newry and Armagh
SF 48.35%
SDLP 16.3%
Alliance 2.6%
Green 0.5%
Other 1.3%
UUP 13.2%
DUP 17.8%
SDLP will elect one on Alliance, Green and other transfers. SF candidates are well balanced and after transfers will be just shy of 3 quotas. UUP will not be higher than 15% after transfers so another UUP loss here.SF keep all 3. Net loss one UUP.
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author32 said:
Nationalism 42% Unionism 44%. 1,168 is all SF were behind DUP.
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Faha said:
I am certain all of you are anxiously awaiting this one-North Belfast
SF 29.4%
SDLP 13.1%
PBP&WP 4.4%
Alliance 8.4%
Green 1.7%
UUP 5.8%
DUP 32.1%
PUP 4.95%
Total unionist vote only equals 43% and DUP are beneath 2 quotas. SF should elect 2 on PBP, Green and a few Alliance transfers. SDLP should easily reach quota on PBP, Alliance and UUP transfers. It is possible that Nelson McCausland may be eliminated before Alliance. At stage 2 he is at 4,069 and Alliance at 3,800 with PBP and UUP transfers yet to be distributed. Net loss one DUP. SF have excellent balancing here with Kelly at 6,275 and Ni Chuilin at 5,929 with a quota of 6,915.
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Faha said:
The final vote totals for all constituencies was:
SF 224,225 27.92%
SDLP 95,913 11.94%
Nationalist 17,977 2.24%
Alliance 72,717 9.05%
Green 18,527 2.31%
Other 6,553 0.82%
UUP 103,314 12.86%
DUP 225,413 28.06%
TUV 20,523 2.55%
PUP 5,590 0.70%
UKIP 1,579 0.20%
Conservatives 2,399 0.3%
Unionist 8,520 1.06%
Total Nationalist 338,135 42.1%
Alliance-Green-Other 97,797 12.17%
Unionist 367,338 45.73%
The SF vote was up massively. The SDLP vote was up somewhat, keeping up with the overall increase. Alliance vote up dramatically but surprisingly Green vote down slightly. DUP vote was up by over 22,000. However, half of this appears to be due to the fact that UKIP only competed in 1 constituency and there were fewer, PUP, TUV and independent unionists also (at least 12,000 fewer voters for those parties due to lack of candidates). Unionist vote is down almost 4% from 2016 and the unionist nationalist gap is only 3.6%.
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gendjinn said:
Strangford stands out, along with Mid Ulster, Foster’s personal vote was down on increased turnout. There seems to be fragmentation and fault lines showing within Unionism.
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PaulG said:
A great day for Nationalism. Excellent SF performance. Lets hope Nationalist voters have transferred their vote to the other Nat party and then to Tree Huggers and Hand-wringers. Great chance to bring Unionist MLA total below 50%.
All eyes now on Oliver McMullan, Pat Catney and the other stragglers trying to get over the line.
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hoboroad said:
It looks like Nelson McCausland is in serious trouble.
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hoboroad said:
http://ulsterherald.com/2017/03/03/podcast-anger-special-room-dup-leader/
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bangordub said:
Just home from North Down Count, covering North Down and Strangford, SF vote doubled in both constituencies and Joe Boyle of the SDLP in with a great chance of 5th seat in Strangford
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erasmus said:
Bangordub,
Are you sure about Joe Boyle? Does not look like it based on latest figures.
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bangordub said:
At time of writing he was in 5th and about 300 votes ahead
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hoboroad said:
SF 21
DUP 14
UUP 5
APNI 4
SDLP 3
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hoboroad said:
Nesbitt has resigned as UUP leader
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hoboroad said:
Bye Bye Nelson
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hoboroad said:
Sean Lynch (SF) is elected in Fermanagh and South Tyrone
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