After an electric election day we face the count now.
I’m opening this thread so that everyone can post whatever gossip or information they may have to share.
It appears that the nationalist electorate may have woken up finally and we could be in for a very interesting day.
Will we have Michelle as First Minister? (Not that that is important), Will the DUP go into meltdown? What happens next?
Lucid Talk are predicting an increase in the total nationalist vote to 40% with a 3% increase in the Alliance-Green vote and almost a 3% decrease in the unionist vote (46.6%). The entire decrease in the unionist vote is at the expense of the DUP. UUP voters are still unwilling to give their 2nd preferences to the DUP.
In last year’s Lucid Talk poll the nationalist vote was 1.5% higher than what was predicted. So the nationalist vote could be 41.5% and the unionist 45.5%.
That means Unionism is a minority in this juristiction.
Tomorrow might just be very interesting.
"We in coming days may be" 
Fantastic performance by Sinn Fein.
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Lord Morrow missed out on a seat by 300 votes. Don’t ever let anyone tell your vote doesn’t matter.
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Delores Kelly SDLP elected in Upper Bann
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Am I crazy or are we looking at SF 28 and DUP 27?
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So boundary changes will make a big difference next time out. Game over. Nats have smelt the inevitable.
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Trevor Clarke DUP Whip has lost his seat
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Utterly stunning results coming in
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Pat Cagney in in Lagan Valley.
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What a turnaround from last year.from despair last year to hope now for nationalism.
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And that’s without Brexit. How unified do you think the Unionist camp is on the EU? Lucid Talk poll has 8% Uns already preferring UI/EU to UK/Brexit and 30% that only want UK/EU.
Tick. Tick. Tick. Buh Bye NI!
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SF 27; SDLP 12; PBP 1; DUP 28; UUP 10; TUV 1; IND U 1; ALL 8; GR 2
Nats 40 (SF/SDLP/PBP) and Uns 40 and other 10 🙂 Jaysus I can’t wait to see how the Indo and fellow travelers paint this as an utter catastrophe for Sinn Fein. I’m sure it will be something along the lines of failing to negotiate correctly with the DUP.
But until that mirth these celebrations will have to do instead.
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This appears to the final outcome. However, there is an odd situation in the South Belfast count at this time. Alliance, SF and the SDLP all have one elected. UUP are at 4,338 and DUP (Stafford) at 4,715 and DUP (Little Pengelly) at 4,676. Alliance have an undistributed surplus of 500 and the SDLP a surplus of 1,475. Bailey of the Green Party is at 5,450. It appears that if 400 of that surplus transfers to the UUP then neither DUP may be elected.
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That would be the icing on the cake its all on Bradshaws surplus of 500 and only 75 votes between the 3 unionist candidates, maybe mike wants to come out of retirement lol
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Well holy god, Biddy! *gulp* moment and biting nails even after it looked all settled. The NIElections site has Stalford elected, the Bel Tel has Henderson UUP.
God give us another AE17 in November with a border poll alongside it 😉
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E McCann loses his seat in Foyle
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Yeah, would have been more than nice if he could have kept a DUP out.
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Well SF /SDLP voters in Derry should be ashamed of themselves for not giving Eamonn McCann enough transfers thus enabling Middleton to retain his seat.
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It is a terribly pity, especially as he had just won his first election in May. Hopefully we will get another assembly election later this year and they’ll vote him back in.
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So looks like all square nationalism and unionism if we include the spoofer Carroll never saw that happening jeez if Joe boyle sneaked in in Strangford the world might have imploded
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Fantasic. Tonight we have never been closer to a United Ireland.
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On this performance I think SF will have to park direct rule and hope the Irish government can use leverage on the Brits to get Acht na Gaeilge through. On these numbers no way equal marriage etc can be blocked.
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SF
27
DUP
27
SDLP
12
UUP
10
AP
8
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Caoimhe Archibald (SF) elected in East Derry
Pengelly DUP concedes defeat in South Belfast
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On the BBC election site they are showing the final count in South Belfast with
UUP 4,761
DUP (Stalford) 4,729
DUP (Little Pengelly) 4,703
The UUP wins the sole unionist seat and both DUP defeated ! There will almost certainly be a recount of the entire South Belfast vote with only a 32 vote margin.
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It finishes at 40 -40 -10, all changed
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40 each. Goodnight
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Such a pity there was no campaigning in the South of east Antrim, those nat votes could have swung it.
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Sf could have retained the East Antrim seat if the SDLP voters have transferred to them in adequate numbers. Well at least the SDLP will never have a chance of being elected in East Antrim.
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Never? In politics? Don’t be daft. Especially after yesterday. Better to ask the question why they didn’t transfer than doing an Arlene.
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They didn’t transfer to Sinn Fein they didn’t want Oliver McMullan to retain the seat. Plus the SDLP candidate was an ex SF member with an axe to grind. A much higher Unionist turnout didn’t help either.
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You know, that is off on many levels. SF don’t have a right to nationalist votes. They need to earn them. The area has traditionally transferred away from SDLP with SF down the list because they hadn’t a chance of election. This time out McMullan was seen as unlikely aided by the complete absence past Larne.
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You do realise that this was originally won for nationalism by the SDLP by Danny O’Connor. Who will replace McMullan. They have no one of charisma and intelligence that can span both Carnlough and Larne
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I remember speaking to Justin McCamphill when I met him campaigning in the south of the constituency and I said to him would his time be better served in the north, he said there was as many votes in the south as the north and all of it needed canvassed, it did not turn out well for him. He also was not from the constituency.
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Has Arlene resigned yet?
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A dram for the Horseman. I wish he were here, he’d be delighted.
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Great result for Nationalism. Didn’t see that coming.
BD,
your optimism has finally been rewarded….my pessimistic outlook may not survive.
will be interested in your and/or Faha’s analysis of the turnout. Nationalist turnout has presumably edged ahead?
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UUP are now a fringe party according to Dr Herman on UTV. How the mighty have fallen.
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Heenan
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Where have all the Catholics who were going to vote DUP gone? You know over abortion and gay marriage.
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There just wasnt that many… …as opposed to those who conceive the bigger democratic picture I imagine.
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Or they voted SDLP.
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They voted for DUP or stayed at home, which shows that nationalism has more in the tank for a UI referendum
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Interesting point Coiteir
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It’s an awful shame that Horseman didn’t live to see this day.
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http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/election-northern-ireland-2017-39168287
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Check out the poll on my blog
http://hoboroadpoliticalhighway.blogspot.co.uk/?m=1
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Vote changes v 2016: DUP + 22,846
SF +. 57,460
Alliance +. 24,270
UUP/SDLP + 28,596
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When the 2001 census results began being released in 02 there were several of us that pointed out that northern Ireland was over. Mostly on slugger. The 2011 census confirmed the trend, as had the elections/referenda from 1970s on.
We said that the NILT was built on a voter model that was ridiculously favourable to Unionists and not representative of reality. We said that Unionist civil servants were fiddling the census results to assign >90% of “no religion/none stated/atheist” were assigned to the Protestant community background, without any good reason beyond bolstering the numbers. We said the Identity question in 2011 was purely about tricking Nationalists into ticking “Northern Irish” so Unionists could again bolster their “majority”.
5 years to re-unification, it is over for Northern Ireland and it is thanks to Brexit. You will now be noticing that while in the same breath Unionism is telling us the Union is safe as houses, there is also bargaining. Notice how the shape of a future UI is now being discussed, could never get them to ever talk about those details before. The jig is up, we have the majority and a tonne of Unionists are going to cross over because of Brexit. We do not need to bargain with the troglodytes, nor should we. The Gregory Campbells and Nelxon McCauslands are not our partners, the Unionists that do not foam at the mouth in rage at the idea of ILA are. We can work with them. We will work with them.
Congratulations everyone, keep the shoulder to the wheel because the finish line is finally in sight!
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Gendjinn,
Would you mind explaining the shortcomings of the NILT’s voter model.
I often read posts criticising the NILT but I’ve never seen an explanation as to why it is flawed.
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Dig into the crosstabs and look at the percentage of SF and SDLP voters in their results compared to elections before and after. That is how they skew their results to a Unionist bias. Once you’ve got an overwhelming Unionist group of course you will get overwhelming Unionist positions.
Lucid Talk the last 5 years is the only pollster worth paying attention to in the north and it seems that the lingering problems of people being honest with pollsters is finally going away.
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1/3 of DUP MLA’s want Arlene to step aside in order to save Stormont
http://m.belfasttelegraph.co.uk/news/northern-ireland-assembly-election/arlene-foster-faces-revolt-as-third-of-dup-mlas-want-her-to-step-aside-and-save-institutions-35504549.html
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bangordub, faha,
The big question that needs to be answered is whether nationalism is ahead of unionism in terms of turnout – or have they just caught up or nearly caught up with it?
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Hard to give a straight answer Sammy, without knowing breakdown of Alliance/Green Independent votes. I think it can be said majority of PBP voters are likely to be nationalists.
SF+ SDLP+ PBP =334,303
DUP+UUP+TUV+ PUP = 354,840
So still approx 20,000 votes short on those raw figures
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BD,
I wonder if it the ‘other’ votes should be distributed on the basis of the Nat/Unionist split in the constituency? If that makes sense and is not too complicated?
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There’s certainly an argument for doing that – Claire Sugden for example, is likely voted for by unionists
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There is certainly a suggestion in the the ‘media’ that the reason SF (and the SDLP) did so well was because of the higher Nat differential turnout – I have not seen an analysis which shows whether the increased Nat turnout is not just higher in terms of numbers than it was previously but whether it has drawn level or exceeded Unionist turnout.I think Faha’s analysis is the only one that is analysing the differential turnout – and was wondering if he might be considering re-running his analysis based on these election results?
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Sammy,
Once the Electoral Office releases their Excel sheets with the transfers I will estimate the turnout by Constituency.
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I feel very much like the fabled SF croc – the more you provide the more is requested….
And without prejudice to your reputation for statistical excellence – what is your gut feeling – has Nat turnout drawn level or exceeded Unionist turnout?
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It is probably slightly lower due to continued low (but higher than 2016) turnout in East Belfast, North Down, Strangford, East Antrim and Lagan Valley. Also Catholics who are foreign nationals vote at a lower rate.
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Regarding North Down
SF went from 307 in 2016 to 604
SDLP from 426 to 671
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Faha,
Thanks for that. Look forward to the analysis. If your pre-analysis conclusion is correct this would rather spike the guns of the boul Gregory who appeared to be hinting at the DUP wanting another election – because Unionists hadnt turned out in sufficient number this time.
… but are ‘foreign nationals’ not a separate group? If the analysis is based on Nat or Unionist turnout then religion is only proxy for those distinctions based on ‘religious background’ – and foreign nationals although Catholic are not therefore relevant? Or is that too complicated?
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Sammy, it no longer does, we have enough to put us over to majority with Remain Unionists, there’s at least 10% that will swing UI and there’s 40% that could.
We need a border poll in 12 to 18 months and we will win it.
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gendjinn, although revising my pessimistic view on such matters – I still cant share your optimistic view. Any talk of a border poll should be put well back or the confidence that is being shown now in nationalism would be reversed- in my opinion. .
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Elected representatives will over estimate Unionist voters due to gerrymandering. Similarly gerrymandering depressed Nationalist voter turnout. It is really only with the pro-roguing of Stormont and tracking votes directly that you start to get a somewhat accurate assessment of the relative political strengths of the two camps.
The Hunger Strikes are where the data really gets accurate and interesting.
As you see, we are now close enough in political power for turnout to determine the outcome. Nationalists are 10 years away from electoral parity but Nationalists are united and motivated by the antagonism of the DUP. An antagonism that the DUP base requires – remember why they dispatched Paisley? Robinson and Foster did not.
The details of N/U demographic/electoral power are irrelevant. Brexit has changed the landscape. There are more than enough UI/EU Unionists to swing a border poll, we just need a year or two for the hard Brexit consequences to sink home and we will have at least 55% for a UI.
Ideally we’d want a border poll before the UK leaves the EU but it may take one or two years of the border to achieve it. Either way, the civil servants were dead right to make Kenny ask for UI exceptions to be carved into the Brexit negotiations. We will likely need them and before the north hits 100.
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I’ve a couple of graphs on turnout on my blog.
http://endgameinulster.blogspot.ie/2017/03/crocodile-rock.html?m=1#comment-form
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https://theulsterfry.com/local-news/arlene-foster-injured-by-elephant-during-dup-trip-to-the-circus/
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Interesting when you look at from 1973 to 2017 you see a drop off from Unionist parties of 20%.
Thing is, it’s took 43 years to happen.
Roughly 0.5% per year.
There’s a sea change alright but crikey it’s slow slow drip drip drip one.
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Important to remember how political unionism limited the electorate over that period in a very deliberate way
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I’d doubt there’s too many supporters of the Loyal Orders giving their first preference vote to the Greens/Alliance etc.
Clearly now non unionists labeled parties are in the clear majority.
And yes i know you could be a unionist (small u) and vote Green but your hardly likely to be joining a fleg protest.
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http://m.belfasttelegraph.co.uk/news/northern-ireland/backlash-against-times-columnist-claiming-ireland-has-tenuous-claim-to-nationhood-and-ni-unionists-not-british-35509762.html
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I’m hoping faha will do an analysis of transfers and turnout at some stage.
Few punts;
1) Dominant and agressive unionism must realise that the crocodiles are not just Sinn Fein. Many of them are, but there are hundreds of thousands of others from across all parties that used their preferences to bite her. Support for an end to the abuse of the PofC, a bill of rights and stronger equality agenda and an ILA are not just Sinn Fein asks.
2) The ending of the unionist majority paves the way for significant progress on a range of issues. ‘Others’ now hold the balance of power. If nationlism is serious, it must court that opinion.
3) The UUP will make the same mistake it did choosing Tom Elliot. It will retreat to the trenches of rural orangism and conservatism. Mike did a half baked attempt to liberalise and never really scooped up the corpse or esprit of NI21. Calls for unionist unity will increase.
4) The SDLP benefited from increased alliance and SF turnout and vote shares. Surpluse and transfer votes benefitted them. An increased % of direct UUP transfers also helped. They looked heartbroken at lunch time which turned to hope by midnight and joy thereafter.
5) Smaller parties were squeezed, but the deeper roots of the Greens meant they held their seats. PBP lost McCann which is a big blow. He was their better performer and may have even attempted to legislate and amend motions. TUV again returned as a one man show. UKIP are writing their epithet with McNarry championing unionist unity. Should the remnants of UKIP not just through their lot in with TUV? PUPs made some decent stabs which should see them hopeful for councils and a longer term build.
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“corpse or esprit” love it, nice play off esprit de corps too 🙂
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I do try. I’m uncomfortable with flattery, now tell me what you think of my punts?
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I am going to have to go with fabulous.
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Just to add a bit more confusion into the mix, many Tory MPs are calling for a snap election so as to take full advantage of Labour’s befuddlement. http://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/news/call-snap-election-to-crush-labour-cabinet-ministers-tell-may-876h8sxcp
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Westminster elections can no longer be “called” unless their is a 2/3 majority in Westminster that agree to do so (434 votes). The Conservatives need another 103 MP’s to agree to a snap election. I doubt that Labour and the SNP will agree to do so.
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Or the DUP or SDLP for that matter! I wasn’t aware of the 2/3 majority requirement. Thanks for that.
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Unless the anti-Corbynites revolt, and join with the SNP. The SNP might see an election as a way to provide further legitimacy for a second border poll. Given the energy in Scotland I can’t see them being too worried about retaining their British Dáil seat total, if not adding 3 more.
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If the stats are correct and unionists are an ageing voter group then it’s only a matter of time before the entire DUP/UUP/TUV/PUP/UKIP vote ends up below 40%.
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Only going in one direction PT
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