Without a doubt this result is a shock.
I, like many others, expected a narrow victory for the remain campaign.
The decision is one for UK citizens primarily and as such, I have respect for their decision.
But this one is different.
It is different because it lays bare the disunity at the heart of their kingdom.
Make no mistake, I believe Scotland will have another referendum on independence within 18 months. I also believe this one will be carried.
As usual my primary interest is the results here in the North East of this island.
The headline is, of course, that the majority voted to remain in the EU. A democratic deficit therefore exists as far as the North is concerned.
A quick look at this BBC map is instructive, those of you familiar with the demography of the place will immediately notice a similarity with the political map of the North East.
Despite much evidence of cross party / community voting there is a certain familiar aspect to this map.
Sinn Fein have been very fast out of the traps on this one calling for a border poll before 6am this morning.
It’s going to be a very interesting Summer
UPDATE: here are all the constituency figures – as pointed out by Fitzjameshorse, I’m proud to report that North Down was the only majority unionist area to vote Remain.
"We in coming days may be" 
Thanx for the name-check. I am delighted with the Result. The first post-Referendum blog is posted and more will follow, including one specifically about Norn Iron.
This Referendum is closer to the Good Friday Referendum than any Westminster or Assembly Election since 1998.
As I see it…in 1998 nationalists voted over 90 per cent in favour of GFA while unionists were more lukewarm.
The Remain-Leave split shows that unionists were more euophobic.
Look at Foyle…SDLP will take a lot of satisfaction (but student votes counted also)
Look at West Belfast…hardly an endorsement of SF.
SDLP (and I proudly declare I voted LEAVE) were much more active on the ground than SF.
North Down is not an endorsement of SDLP campaign. RAther it was Alliance, Hermon, Green, garden centre vote coming out. The same might be broadly said of East Belfast…split as usual in loyalist-alliance and Belmont Bowling Club lines.
South Belfast…well certainly SDLP MP helped but Green, Alliance moderate votes combined with student/academic votes also added up.
Nor would I make too much of East Derry. Certainly a big nationalist area but theres that “academic” vote around Coleraine and a hefty moderate unionist presence.
There ARE good pickings for nationalists Scottish and Irish in the result but I would not be too enthused about the 600 passport applications in Holywood (is Rory McIlroy applying? Is Mick Fealty?…..maybe they have one already)…..obviously a good sign for nationalists but I was pretty dismissive of “economic unionists” so I am not going to get too excited about people who are economic nationalists.
A passport of convenience to work in Germany or Spain is not in itself a triumph.
Insofar as there is now a good economic argument to go alongside the emotion…affection…love even that the likes of you and I have for our nation, then clearly thats a good thing.
It may not be the Night They Drove Ole Dixie Down….but I certainly feel sorry for the good British-English people who perceived their nation to be a better place than it actually is. A friend recently emailed to say “this feels like a bereavement”.
Yes I have enjoyed the teasing and the gloating.
But as nationalists in Scotland and Ireland have a spring in our steps….it is a bad time for ordinary decent British people including those who share our space.
An opportunity to show that Irish nationalism is inclusive and expansive.
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fitzjameshorse,
I think the vote for the GFA was 90-97% Nationalist and 47-51% Unionist, personally I like 95% N & 50% U if one really wants to be specific.
Compared NI 2016 Assembly results for each constituency grouped N/U/O to the Leave/Remain vote. N was about 85/15 R/L while U were 20/80 R/L.
Two unknowns:
* What is the percentage of Nationalist voters that will vote to remain in the UK?
* What is the percentage of Remain Unionists will vote to leave the UK?
We would get GFA level voter turnout and the Nationalist apathy of the last few years would be erased.
I think re-unification wins a border poll held by the end of the year. We have been given window to an early victory that previously I thought would be a long haul battle. Even if it loses, the movement that was built (just like in Scotland) will continue and will press for another go in 7 years and every 7 years until we win.
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Id place unionist support for Good Friday Agreement at around 54% from unionists. The complaint from DUP at the time was that there was only a majority because of the support of garden centre unionists …people who had never voted before.
I dont think there will be a border poll before Britains exit from EU is absolute….so thats at least two years.
Maybe there wont be one at all but SF would certainly press for one. It would be de-stabalising but so is every scenario anyway and if there is to be any nationalist progress EVER then it has to be because of a de-stabalising situation…fall of Stormont for example. (Thepresent scenario is just losing nationalist votes).
So…
1 2018 Britain out of EU confirmed.
2 Border Poll agitation.
3 Border Poll?
4 no way do Nationalists win….this time.
The whole event hinges on whether unionists love the EU more than the UK…I still think that requires generational change.
But meantime 1,500,000 people have signed a petition for another Referendum.
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Re-unification wins in the next 3 to maybe 6 months while those that wish to remain in the EU are confused and haven’t grasped onto EEA/EFTA as a security blanket.
* Push hard on the democratic deficit angle and hypocrisy around NOT having a referendum on whether or not England should get to pull NI or Scotland out. Just keep hammering on that vulnerability for the next few years.
* We likely need to lose one poll before we win. Look at the lies that were told to keep Scotland in. Lies that were rapidly exposed after. NI will get the same treatment and the longer we wait, the longer we have to wait.
* Ns went 85/15 Remain. Do you really think that all of that 15% prefer UK over IRE?
* Us went 80/20 Leave. Peel off a quarter to a half of those Remain (like North Down) and you have a greater border victory margin than Brexit. And if Brexit is democratically legitimate….
* If the UK does Brexit the xenophobia will only increase, the hard border, will stoke up tensions and emotions and as we know from the early 70s heightened tensions and marching season == Catholics murdered and the yawning pit of conflict. We don’t have the luxury of time.
* All the Nationalist bloggers on Slugger have apparently gone Stockholm Syndrome.
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Hat tip to both @irelanduncut and @YanniKouts for this interesting read
Click to access 138.pdf
Seems the opinion of the experts is that the devolved regions hold a veto on Brexit.
The role of the devolved legislatures in implementing the withdrawal
agreement
70. We asked Sir David whether he thought the Scottish Parliament would have
to give its consent to measures extinguishing the application of EU law in
Scotland. He noted that such measures would entail amendment of section
29 of the Scotland Act 1998, which binds the Scottish Parliament to act in a
manner compatible with EU law, and he therefore believed that the Scottish
Parliament’s consent would be required.83 He could envisage certain political
advantages being drawn from not giving consent.84
71. We note that the European Communities Act is also entrenched in the
devolution settlements of Wales and Northern Ireland. Though we have
taken no evidence on this specific point, we have no reason to believe that
the requirement for legislative consent for its repeal would not apply to all the
devolved nations.
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http://ind.pn/28VzMxe
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This does look like a golden opportunity but I fear I will despair of SF, can they at least make some public attempt to unite nationalists before shooting of trying to unite the country. M. Martin, Collum, have you got the stones? Oh dear, Collum has gone as quiet as Boris. Ah well you have 1-2yrs to build something, should be enough time.
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If SF are hesitant the SDLP has nothing to lose by out-greening them on the issue.
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To a point, but we need a consensus within nationalism, not a race to be the best Gael. To me the SDLP need to join in the call for a border poll but with a more inclusive plan that seeks endorsement by everyone including those from a unionist background. Especially those in power in the South like FF with the ability to see it through. FF and SF together can out gun (excuse the term) FG.
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BD, FJH,
Constituency figures very interesting – and reassuring.
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BD,
Do you know how to or if it is possible to statistically correlate the relationship of ‘community background’ and Remain/Brexit.
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Simple answer Sammy,
No way of knowing
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I may be able to do a post on this. The Lucid Talk poll for Northern Ireland the week before the election was very accurate. The poll showed 52% Remain, 38% Leave and 10% undecided. Of that 10% undecided it appears 4% went to Remain and 6% to Leave. Unionist voters were 85% Leave and 15% Remain while nationalist, Alliance and Green voters were the opposite at 85% Remain and 15% Leave. 790,000 voted in the EU referendum and 704,000 in the Assembly election but after excluding EU national voters (who could not vote in the Euro Referendum but did in the Assembly election) approximately 690,000 Northern Ireland UK citizens voted in the Assembly election. So 100,000 more voters voted in the Euro referendum. The unionist parties received 50% of the Assembly vote or 345,000 which was almost the same as the 349,422 who voted Leave. Of course 15 % would have voted Remain but this would have been exactly counterbalanced by the 15% of nationalist, Alliance Green voters who voted Leave. It appears most of those extra 100,000 voters were from the Catholic, Other or None voters and Protestants who would vote Alliance or Green. If the Assembly election had been held on the same day as the EU referendum the Assembly results would have been very different than the May 2016 result.
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Faha,
re. “I may be able to do a post on this. ”
Are you talking about the general issue or specifically about correlation – or both?
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Both.
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http://www.bloomberg.com/news/videos/2016-06-27/alan-greenspan-scotland-will-leave-the-united-kingdom
Greenspan comments on position of Scotland and the six counties.
And this is due before the Scottish Parliament tomorrow:
Motion S5M-00601: Nicola Sturgeon, Glasgow Southside, Scottish National Party, Date Lodged: 27/06/2016
Implications of the EU Referendum for Scotland
That the Parliament welcomes the overwhelming vote of the people of Scotland to remain in the European Union; affirms to citizens of other EU countries living here that they remain welcome and that their contribution is valued; mandates the Scottish Government to have discussions with the UK Government, other devolved administrations, the EU institutions and member states to explore options for protecting Scotland’s relationship with the EU, Scotland’s place in the single market and the social, employment and economic benefits that come from that, and instructs the Scottish Government to report back regularly to parliamentarians, to the European and External Relations Committee and the Parliament on the progress of those discussions and to seek Parliament’s approval of the outcome of that process.
Supported by: Fiona Hyslop
Current Status: Due in Chamber on 28/06/2016
Events are indeed moving quickly.
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http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-eu-referendum-36639770
Gibraltar is in talks with Scotland about a plan to keep parts of the UK in the EU,
BBC Newsnight has learned.
Fabian Picardo, the territory’s chief minister, told the BBC he was speaking to Scotland’s First Minister, Nicola Sturgeon, about various options.
One possibility under discussion is for Gibraltar and Scotland, which both voted to remain in the EU, to maintain the UK’s membership of the bloc.
Nicola Sturgeon has confirmed that talks are under way with Gibraltar.
Northern Ireland could also potentially be included in the discussions.
“I can imagine a situation where some parts of what is today the member state United Kingdom are stripped out and others remain,”
Mr Picardo told Newsnight.
“That means that we don’t have to apply again for access, we simply remain with the access we have today, and those parts that leave are then given a different sort of access, which is negotiated but not necessarily under Article 50,” he said, referring to a provision in the Lisbon Treaty that sets out how a member state can voluntarily leave the Union.
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I can’t see it, maintaining membership of the EU requires paying dues and I don’t see how that works out of a budget controlled by Westminster
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Not sure why SF are pushing for a border poll. There is no evidence it would pass. Nationalists are not voting. If peed off with Brexit vote for a Nationalist party and if the combined vote exceeds the Unionist vote we can start planning for a United Ireland.
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Will there be a Westminster election this year? Be great to regain FST from ScumTom.
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I don’t see why a border poll can’t be won. It’s not 50% +1 of 100% it’s 50%+1 of the turnout. Which (I’m guessing) at anywhere between 60-80%.
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I believe Faha is preparing something along those very lines Zig
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Although i think SF are merely paying lip service with the Border Poll, while they press on with their real agenda in the South, it is conceivable that if one were scheduled for 2 years time, it might draw significant Protestant support as the UK exit becomes imminent.
Stranger things have happened – and very recently too!
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Both Gove and May have ruled out early elections if that is the case there is to be a
tory party leader who is an unelected prime minister. In so much going forward to negotiate Brexit with the EU which they themselves would call undemocratic! Perhaps the EU could learn a few things about being undemocratic from the old masters.
Remember the criticism of Gordon Brown and Labour when they did not go to the people. A case of its all fine and well when we do so but don’t you dare.
Well there is also the Secretary of State dismissing the remain vote both here and Scotland as merely regional saying no veto on brexit, managing to ignore the opinion of the House of Lords committee report in the process. (The link to which I have previously posted.) How did Barnet vote and would that be an opinion as easily dismissed by its MP?
The real problem for some the 56% here they voted the wrong way. Those 56% dismissed, it was the wrong majority, not being ‘their majority.’ So the result it is ignored by the very people who said would say they spoke for the plain people and have been calling this wee place, ‘our wee country.’
Next time you hear as much from them remind them that they
helped turn ‘their Ulster’ into a shire of Little England. So much for there always being an Ulster.
Democracy DUP and Tory style only alright when we win.
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The GFA changed, or rather reinforced our wee country as a shire of England.
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The other thing I would add to this is that a plan isn’t the be all and end all. I’ve often been critical of nationalism for not having a coherent plan of how unification will happen. There seems to be the fear that Unionists would dismiss it, pull it apart. The leave vote succeeded without a plan, all it took was enough dissatisfaction with the status. Now I’d rather see a plan but I’m more willing to think that we can succeed in its absence.
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Zig, you’re on fire
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I believe that there will be a poll within 2 years, whether or not it takes 2 years to exit the EU or not.
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