Good Evening.
Some of you may have seen the below graphic which I published on my twitter feed yesterday.
I hasten to add that it is not my own picture but I can I assure you I have checked the figures and they are accurate. The figures are, of course, 5 years out of date.
In other words, we can advance every figure above by a factor of 5 years. In other words those 4 year olds will be voters by 2025
You may be well aware of this demographic timebomb. I am certain that the more intelligent unionist political leaders are also well aware of it.
Hence the well heralded narrative of “Norneverland” not to mention “Letsgetalongerism”. My own opinion of all this nonsense is that it is the latest manifestation of the “our wee country” and “the province” delusion.
Make no mistake there is a serious concerted campaign underway to pretend that this part of Ireland is a country in its own right.
It isn’t. It’s an artificially constructed statelet that has never, since its inception, functioned in a remotely normal fashion. The reason for that is simply that it was founded upon the basis of a sectarian, demographic majoritarian rule.
That is not to deny the right of every citizen to identify themselves as they wish. However no citizen has the right to deny their fellow citizens the same right.
In other words, equality and democracy.
The basis of this blog is to demonstrate that, the founding premise of the six county state is falling apart.
Following the debacle of the “Unionist Outreach” attempt, the last throw of the dice is a shuffle towards creating a Nornirish identity.
Well I’m a Leinsterman, and I enjoy the banter in the pub during the rugby, I’m also a Dub, you can imagine the stick I get against , well anyone.
But when Ireland play………
"We in coming days may be" 
Encouraging map, showing the clear direction of travel. Should not be much longer before a Catholic majority is here.
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Have you learned nothing from the last election?
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yea, babies cant vote yet.
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It has been a good day for Sinn Féin. Holding the levers of power in the Finance Department.
But back on topic these changes to demographics mean it is game on in terms of a Irish Unity Referendum in a short time.
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It has been a bad day for SF. They have accepted the unionist veto on who can govern as well as the border. Push over nationalism presented as a virtue?
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SF have also pressed for Gay Marriage which has disappointed devout Catholics
It will worry many that the new justice minister favours it.
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From what I can see, the longer we have SF as the lead republican party, a UI will elude us. I don’t see any agreed plan, more importantly, I don’t see the ability to create consensus with the SDLP and FF, never mind the politically absent. If you redrew this graph as SF voting the colours would go blue. The relegation of SF to third in the south was a disaster for raising a UI to the agenda in the south and the north was hardly mentioned in the 1916 commemorations. The new Stormont executive has out them as a junior mudguard in a right wing government, the same position Labour found itself in with FG. Good luck with that. Love your optimism but this graph tells you it is time to wake up. Stop attacking FF and SDLP and start building bridges.
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Agree, SF has reached its peak, it no longer represents nationalism. Nationalism is very much split across the board. There is a total lack of UI interest at the minute – unfortunately, thats SF’s reasun d’etre.
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This map shows a Catholic majority is inevitable. A United Ireland referendum can be won quite soon.
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The issue is that there is a clear democratic deficit. Potential nationalist voters are not voting and a conscensus is starting to emerge:
There is now a concerted attempt to examine the reasons for this:
http://www.irishnews.com/opinion/columnists/2016/05/11/news/drop-in-nationalist-vote-a-cause-for-concern-515848/
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I wish that it were true but I think you are living in fantasy land. One can’t even presume that the diminishing number voting for nationalist parties would all even tick the “yes” box for a UI.
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I think that essentially all Catholics would vote for a UI and all Proestants to stay in the UK. Society is sharply divided along Catholic Protestant lines – you are either one or other and there is no middle ground – and people will go with the traditional divide. It will be a very highly emotionally charged referendum. People will vote along religious lines.
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“I think that essentially all Catholics would vote for a UI and all Proestants to stay in the UK. Society is sharply divided along Catholic Protestant lines – you are either one or other and there is no middle ground – and people will go with the traditional divide. It will be a very highly emotionally charged referendum. People will vote along religious lines.”
This is your perspective, as a “Sinn Fein Supporter in County Tyrone”. County Tyrone is <10% of the population of NI, and also probably the most segregated part of Northern Ireland taken on balance. I believe there is a massive East/West divide on this; no doubt it holds true where you are. In County Down on the other hand (30% of NI Population, FYI) as Bangordub will tell you, very different attitudes exist both among Protestants and Catholics and many would could not be relied upon to vote on religious lines. Believe me, the referendum when it happens will be class warfare. Turkey's won't vote for Christmas. Hence the Sinn Fein/SDLP socialist republic rhetoric doesn't motivate the famous 'Castle Catholics' in the East of province to claim the demograhic seat bonus they are 'entitled to' in Lagan Valley, Strangford, North Down, East Belfast, South Belfast (new to the demographic deficit list), Upper Bann and South Down.
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What do you mean Tyrone is probably the most segregated part of Ireland? Not being accusatory, I’m just curious.
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Of Northern Ireland I meant*
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Do you mind letting us know where you got the info for the graphic in the main post?
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I picked it up on the web from a source and then checked it against some mapping software I use. It is accurate as I have said but presents two extremes of the age range. I may do a phased version but I can only do that across the 6 counties rather than by Council area.
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Demographic tipping point should bring a voting majority 2021 so next assembly election should be good for SF.
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I really despair – irish nationalism is actually fucked.
SFS, please indulge me into how that argument could not have been said at the 2011 election, or the 2007 election or any election where similar maps were available? Not least how SF have gone backwards since 2011 and stood still since 2007 on top of the SDLP losses?
Has it occurred to you that those extra baby catholics are growing up to Rory Mcilroy catholics who feel ” more British than irish ” or coming into a Northern Ireland for whom they don’t want to ‘side’ with nationalism as it’s not trendy to go to the nightclubs or concerts as a well known you know what. So they effectively step out of the debate?
This is what I’m driving at; you are counting chickens that have not only not hatched, but are being put into another farmer’s basket.
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“they don’t want to ‘side’ with nationalism as it’s not trendy to go to the nightclubs or concerts as a well known you know what. So they effectively step out of the debate?”
You lost me there a bit, lad. Most young catholics in my experience just don’t bother voting, for whatever reason – even if they’re typically culturally nationalist. Lack of interest in politics would be my best guess.
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Devout Catholics are unhappy with the socially liberal agenda of Sinn Fein and are unhappy with enda kenny’s attacks on the church. There is a sense in which it is no longer obvious that catholic values are better ppromoted in a UI especially if FG Labour or SF are in government.
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Why does the map exclude those of no religion and others? Surely this distorts the figures as someone of no religion or others are of equal importance and have an equal vote. It makes it look like the only show in town in NI is Catholic v Protestant and we have significantly moved on from that, not least securlaization, immigration etc. Inclusion of No religion and others would take the Catholic percentage down would it not?
Also, given that protestants started to secularize a good 20 years before catholics (at least) it seems to give a distorted picture against them, for example Strangford area would have likely remained the darkest colour rather than going down a shade.
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The numbers discarded is only a small number of people in practice so I think it best to presume that a Catholic majority is imminent.
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No we haven’t moved on significantly. The partition of the county is the basis of all politics here. It is of prime importance.
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I also think the greater acceptance of NI, is happening rather organically and naturally, albeit at quite a slow and patchy pace. I think that as a republican part of you may have copped onto this , and may be a little spooked by it. Unionism generally couldn’t be so calculating as to go for a ‘Northern Irishness as a last throw of the dice’ as you call it. These are the planks that brought the flag protest.
Either sheer weight of catholics will vote a UI over the line, or a quare chunk of them will remain happy enough in NI to keep it in the UK. Only time will tell.
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The numbers of Catholics who vote unionist are only a small number of people in practice so I think it best to presume that the imminent Catholic majority is great news for SF.
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SF’s vote is likely to fall further in light of the hiding the DUP are giving them. (1) No Taigs need apply for Justice minister. (2) A SF minister in a Finance department shortly to be charged with administering massive spending cuts. (3) DUP ministers in charge of Education and Culture and well-placed to give the Irish language education sector a kicking. SF seem to have learned nothing from the shot fired across their bows by voters. The DUP are handing them their arses on a plate.
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Sinn Fein supporter, your posts are really repetitive and ill-informed – and probably a bit sectarian too. It’s irritating. There won’t be a ‘catholic’ majority in the next census. Possibly a catholic plurality – and the majority of ‘non-religious’ people tend to be from a protestant background (which is obvious if you have a look at the annual school census and it irritates me that this factor is ignored, accuracy is important). I’m a nationalist by the way but it’s naive to think a United Ireland is just around the corner, and you ignore that 0-18 year olds obviously cant vote. The demographics are changing but the birth rates have almost leveled off – the change is primarily driven by the majority of the elderly and non-religious being from a protestant background. Also plenty of catholics aren’t that fussed about a united ireland at the moment.
It’s a lot more complicated that you let on, basically. I wouldn’t be surprised if there’s a united ireland, but it’s not happening any time soon barring a dramatic change. In my opinion of course.
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Conor I think that you underestimate the importance of a catholic majority. I think both Bangordub and Paddy Reilly have looked at the figures and this will come through in December of this year. Bangordub says that will bring a Catholic voting majority in 2021. Yes, it is true that there are some people who are not Catholic or Protestant but the numbers are very small. I would argue that nearly all Catholics are nationalist and that a referendum will see voting split very cleanly along traditional Catholic Protestant lines.
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I wonder what can be gleaned from the latest NISRA projections on population growth? http://www.nisra.gov.uk/archive/demography/population/projections/lgd/SNPP14_Bulletin.pdf Yes, that is indeed a hint for some mathematically competent person to do a blog (I’m looking at you, Bangor Dub, Faha)
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I concur with Conors and Charlies sentiment above – Sinn Fein Support, please stop echoing the same ill informed speech about more Catholics – Untied Ireland etc.Its completely ignorant and disrespectful to one side of the community and it sounds like something the DUP would come up with. The head counting of peoples religion is how the North was formed, its obviously has failed.
Its not as simple as 50% + 1 catholic = “we are the majority, we can now brag and walk all over you, just like what you did to us for the last 90 years”
Nationalism wont unit this country, thats clear.
Only economics will.
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Oriel, while agreeing with your points above, it is clear that there is a glaring need to articulate the case for a reunited Ireland. This needs to be done on economic grounds as well as sentimental ones as you say above.
It will be interesting to see how a SF finance minister goes about this
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I think that we need to provide Catholics with a strong reason to want a UI. That isn’t reducible to economics it has to be a lot more and a lot deeper and cultural than that. It has to be about values and culture not money.
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I must say I don’t think it fair Bangordub and I am surprised you agree with these points.
For instance where did I say “we can now brag and walk all over you, just like what you did to us for the last 90 years”
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SF S in Tyrone,
In answer to your question, you didn’t.
Your contribution is very welcome here but debate can be robust sometimes, that is actually a good thing. It makes us focus and concentrate on what matters. My rule is that we respect other contributors as we would wish to be ourselves.
Hopefully that sharpens focus and makes us think more about what we say, fair enough?
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Thanks BD I think that is a fair rule.
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Catholic voter,
I suppose you mean people like this starting to engage in this way?
http://www.dublinlive.ie/news/dublin-news/leader-catholic-church-eamon-martin-11395156
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The destination is clear whatever about the time of arrival…
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Best hope at the moment is still Scotland and the possible knock effect.
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Got to admit. That was a tremendous read.
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Something really sticks out, what is happening in Ballymoney (I think, #4). Looks like a huge population swing. Any local input on what is happening. Is there a migration from West NI to East, outflow of folks to the UK, etc.? I’m really curious.
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Very encouraging, isn’t it?
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if the districts around there continue greening as well, a re-partition would be impossible
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Repartition is not in the GFA and no party supports it.
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I agree on one thing Dub, which is the reason for founding NI is falling “as a cheile”, as it has been for most of our adult lives. It does not follow that the state will.
For all the difficulties of unionism at the moment, Republicanism does now face a number of difficult problems of its own, which would be better had out into the open than kept in secret.
One, NI Catholics are not as homogeneous as many of us assume.
Two, resistance to constitutional change is likely to arise from inertia as from political conviction.
Three, some (but *by no means all*) of that inertia derives from the poison inculcated within both side by our late ‘civil war’.
Four, refusal to recognise PULs as equal citizens (defining them through exercises such as this as ‘enemy populations’) has a discrediting effect on the integrity of said “Republican outreach”.
Five, Peaceful evolution to a UI requires patience which the ‘men of action’ in current leadership of northern Irish nationalism have little time or aptitude.
Finally, my view is that there is a proper argument to be had within Nationalism over how best to shape a UI. That’s currently a competition between:
a, those who believe it must be done constitutionally and with the longer term cooperation of present day unionists (the founding group from which Irish Republicanism origins sprang);
or b, those who believe they must be forced into it.
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