I’ve promised some numbers for the May elections to those who’ve stuck with this blog down the line and those who are used to me know that my consistent message has been the correllation between the demographics and the votes is startlingly close. The Westminster elections are a raw election. First past the post, no transfers, no messing. I disagree with the method but we work with what we have.
I’m looking at four constituencies. Newry- Armagh, FST, NB, and SB. I’m not looking at East Belfast as that is a entirely one off situation and largely an inter unionist issue. I will come back to it.
Ok. Here we go! I’m going to provide the raw proportional percentages over the last 2 Westminster elections, compare them with the 2011 census and see what you come up with.
Now lets take a look at the 2011 census community background figures and “go compare”:
It is obvious from the above figures that the census figures match the voting figures very closely. There are a few anomolies also, such as the increased Alliance vote in South Belfast in 2010. The Anna Lo factor obviously impacted on, primarily, the UUP vote for example.
We are five years down the road now from that particular vote. We know that the older unionist demographic is fading. We also know that immigration, emigration and electoral apathy are all factors.
The only certainty is that there is a slow train coming down the line for political unionism and sooner or later the chickens will be roosting.
May will give us all an indication of the next stop.
"We in coming days may be" 
BD,
I think you’ve mixed up some of your numbers with the 2001 census. FST is 57.7% C and 39.1% P in 2011. While SB was 44% C and 43.7% P in 2011.
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Thanks Charlie!
Now corrected
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Despite all the demographic change, there is still a stagnant nationalist vote, in last years elections the NAT vote actually dropped by quite a bit. This could partially be explained by two uninspiring Euro candidates, or could it be two uninspiring Nationalist parties.
Is there any way of calculating emigration figures by community because despite all the talk about the protestant kids heading to university in Scotland, I think that this could be dwarfed by young people in rural nationalist areas heading to England, Australia, Canada. I only have anecdotal evidence of this, but I think that the stalling of SF in the the North(while they soar elsewhere) could be explained by rural emigration. I also think that emigration is often more appealing to young catholics because no matter where in the world they go, they can find Irish bars, gaa clubs and an Irish community. What do young Protestants have when they go abroad? An identity crisis?
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“The only certainty is that there is a slow train coming down the line for political unionism and sooner or later the chickens will be roosting.”
The chickens might not come home to roost if they are frightened off by the slow train?
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Feckitt did you see that statistic that said that 25% of babies born in UK are to foreign mums. Tells us a lot about the amount of migration going on – i.e. quite a lot! You can see that in many towns in NI as it happens.
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I think SF might experience some leakage of core vote and of young vote. This time out they are not standing so many well known figures compared to last time, and they have sounded an uncertain note regarding what it is they stand for.
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Feckitt, ‘what do protestant kids have when they go abroad an identity crisis’
No we have a fucking good time.
That comment of yours just comes across as teeming with predjudice stupid stereotype and a wee bit of bigotry thrown in.
I backpacked, and as much as I enjoyed the odd British Bar to enjoy some football from home or bumping into some Northern Irish, I preferred mixing in with everyone, probably like most NI backpackers. Maybe it’s our frontier spirit, small in number, big in heart.
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d.p
I think it fair to say that a % of young prods abroad(YPA) tend to get bundled in, as far as foreign perception goes as ‘Irish’ (which of course they are) and presumably from a YPA perspective this is fine up until ‘politics’ or ‘history’ or perhaps football (soccer) enters the picture?
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Just say you’re Northern Irish, no need for crisis.
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Sammy, you’re absolutely correct on that score, though it is funny how any ‘Northerner’ may be treated by their Southern counter-parts.
Mark, you’re right, to a point, however, that may lead to a whole flurry of questions afterwards, calling up questions of religion, political affiliation etc. All well and good, and fair questions, but if you’re on a break do you really want to be answering a ton of questions on a complex matter? That’s why Northern Protestants I have met above would say they’re Irish, probably with a small ‘i’
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footballcliches,
Agreeing with me? Shirely shome mishtake?
Yes ‘Northerners’ may (occasionally) get treated as a distinct bunch by ‘Southerners’ but treated as the same bunch(even if ‘Prods’) by others – including the ‘British’.
Funny old game, as ‘arry (the philosopher) Redknapp might opinion.
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Interview with SDLP candidate, Justin McNulty for Newry and Armagh:
http://www.qradionetwork.com/qradio/south-east/south-east-entertainment/q100-5-podcasts/newry-armagh-sdlp-candidate-justin-mcnulty-tells-kevin-mcallister-about-his-pact-with-the-people/
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Could the division and bad blood in the SF, in Newry/Armagh help boost the SDLP’s chances there? They seem to have a good candidate well regarded in the local community? Certainly one to watch as the incumbent MP stands down.
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Good point. I’d be looking out to see signs of further swingback to SDLP in this constituency.
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Godfrey, you misunderstand Newry and Armagh. There is no “division and bad blood in SF” here. What you allude to is an ego problem with a former SF Councillor, who received 632 votes when he last stood.
In this constituency, Mickey Brady is also well regarded within the local community, having dedicated most of his life to helping local people, particularly in regard to benefits/housing issues. By all accounts, there were close to 1,000 supporters at his election launch night in the Canal Court Hotel.
I think the SDLP may make a few inroads, as Rowan suggests, particularly with the expected help of natural DUP voters. However, the evidence on the ground really does suggest a SF hold here.
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Bangordub could you do a post on how the NI Greens fit in to all of this?
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Saw quite recently a comment by Kyle Paisley about a Unionist pact and would that mean Nationalists would coalesce. I would pose the question is instead that there is a historic opportunity for Nationalists and others (Alliance/Green etc.) to work together at all levels of government.
For the simple reason in regards power the leaders of Unionism are Lundies far away from the obstinate cry of no surrender, they are the agents of the abstentee landlord. The yes men, content to scrub the floors of the palace of Westminster. If we are as is sometimes claimed at heart of the union why is the block grant being repeatedly slashed?
To quote the last DUP electoral slogan- Standing up for Northern Ireland. And yet we do not see any evidence of this. The DUP are willing to support UKIP’s demand for an in/out referendum of the EU so in essence Splendid Isolationism. In regards UKIP to me they are just Tories in disguise led by Tories, supported by Tories.They turn the underclass against each other, all the while pretending to be the bloke you’d have a drink with down the pub.
If the Unionists think they are relevant to their allies over the water or wish to live as the landed gentry – why no place in the TV debates? I do want them involved to act as agents of their own destruction.
SF have been criticised for over exaggerating the cuts I am not so sure I think the worst case scenario should always be presented, there is a Tory party government after all. The sooner more powers are taken away from Westminster the better for all of us.
I also previously mentioned a historic opportunity this may be a chance to move away from us and themuns but to left/right politics by turning the Unionist pact on its head. What if it brings the rest of society together?
So instead of the faction fighting this requires smart voting yes even tactical voting to challenge those mini Tories here that have for far too long relied on a split vote to win. Divide and Rule.
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That’s such a large mismatch with FST’s demographic make up and it’s voting patterns. The unionist vote outpolls south Belfast’s unionists for goodness sake.
These pacts and stunts combined with apathetic nationalists convinces the local unionist population that they still have a shout and it’s all hands to the pump come election time. As I’ve said before it’ll take a % drop to around three quotas ( <43% of the vote) to sink in that FST has gone the way of Mid Ulster and West Tyrone.
Even if the nationalist vote stays static at around 53% again. If the Alliance and particularly the anti-fracking Greens increased their combined share to 4 or 5% it would probably come from previously apathetic voters who, from 2014 transfer patterns, tended to come from the nationalist community.
Another reason why this may lead to a dropping this 'unity' practice is that at the moment those three quotas are secure enough, once you get below that number the 2nd DUP seat becomes very precarious. Coupled with the fact the UUP outpolled the DUP last year and Lord Morrow may stand down in 2016 then the DUP will have to defend their position more resolutely. I'm actually think that regardless of the result this year the DUP have probably given up their 2nd seat in the area.
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Can I point out here that I am assuming your stats are based on the entire population figures and not just those in the over 18 age categories. When u look above the suffrage age the demographic gap is wider. Across the six counties the religious stats suggest 48/45 Catholic Protestant break but when u look at those aged 18 and over the gap widens 49/42.
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Hi Robin,
You are right to point out that the stats are based upon the entire age range but the figures are already four years out of date. In 2011 Protestants were in a majority at every age over 38. That is now 42. You should also remember that the older age cohorts tend to be much more active voters. This skews the figures somewhat but I am looking here at the closeness between the Census figures and the actual voting results
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BD,
What is your prediction of the outcomes in terms of party seats? I think FST and EB may well be Unionist gains and NB (hopefully at least narrowing) probably staying as is. Hopefully we wont be seeing these Unionist numbers being significant in terms of Westminster politics i.e. the DUP(and possibly UUP) being rewarded for keeping the Tories in power.
I wonder if SF share of the vote will go down in the Westminsters for the first time, as a result of Nat voter indifference?
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Will be interesting to see if SDLP share of nationalist vote goes up and SF share of nationalist vote go down or vice versa.
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Rowan,
With no pact to obscure the outcome – unlike on the other side of the fence – the perception that SF are levelling off through apathy or the as media are keen to suggest – struggling because of the boul Gerry. Share of the Nat vote and the overall vote (as well as holding on to FST) will be SF main concerns – and I suspect that they might fall back in percentage of the overall vote for the first time since the hunger strikes(?).
As a SF(light) supporter I hope I’m wrong.
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Sammy, SF vote percentage went down in the late 80s and early 90s, before their ceasefire.
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Rowan, first decrease post-ceasefire?
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Possibly, for Westminster, though the SF vote share has now fallen in two successive Euro elections, i.e. we are now into the 11th year of SF’s decline in Euro election terms, in NI.
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Also: the SF vote share declined in the two Westminster by-elections held in recent years. Though it can be argued that by-elections do not count.
I don’t know what will happen in May, in terms of whether SF voting % decline; we just need to wait and see.
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The pacts are a waste of time.
EB – DUP were winning this anyway pact just makes it more comfortable but expect to see a fair whack of the uup vote stay at home or even go to long.
FST – elliot has no hope here not only will he get less votes than connor but his track record will ensure a good nationalist turn out and with SDLP picking an unknown Gildernew will win comfortably.
NA – about as much chance as mid ulster last time ie none
NB – DUP will win anyway the uup vote is almost squeezed to extinction. SF could win if they picked a less controversial candidate. I like kelly but plenty wont vote for him no matter what. Turnout will generally be 50 percent so if SF can flood NB with their election team and get the turnout up you never know.
Conclusion pact against no pact – no seat change however will actually cause a drop in unionist votes and increase in nationalist and other votes so robbo and nesbitt should be applauded.
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boondock,
re. FST – this is the tricky one to call. Something of a publicity coup for the UUP(and Unionism) if Tom get it – and secretly the SDLP must be praying for a SF win as they will get it in the neck.
re. NB.
I think the late great Horseman has this down as the switchover election for Nationalists but I think SF will have to settle for inching closer. But I agree from SF point of view this would be a major, major coup and they should throw everything at it.
… this constituency will be gone if the Tories-UKIP-DUP ‘government’ wins as electoral reform will be back on the Tory agenda.
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EB is an open sore for the Unionists the DUP in particular ‘how dare they take our seat.’ EB is the priority for the DUP. It is an annoyance. Saying all that they are likely to win EB. Whether the annoyance is a big distraction remains to be seen.
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What might put the cat amongst the electoral pigeons is if the Dissers could rustle up a ‘hunger-strike’ candidate for FST.
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Interesting site here full of predictions. I could be harsh and moan that they for some reason have SF out of SB and UUP in North Down but I cant complain too much seeing as nearly every other UK site goes into great detail for every seat in Britain and then leaves Northern Ireland blank which seems absolutely crazy considering we are heading for this hung parliament.
http://fivethirtyeight.com/interactives/uk-general-election-predictions/
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Lucid talk latest has the only change being in East Belfast with the other 17 seats being fairly safe
http://www.belfasttelegraph.co.uk/debateni/blogs/bill-white/general-election-2015-northern-ireland-forecast-31061354.html
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Religious Demographics:
Interesting statistics from the 26 counties – Republic of Ireland – out this week:
% of Marriages that are Catholic in the 26 Counties
Year; %Catholic
1994 0.91
2004 0.76
2009 0.68
2010 0.67
2011 0.66
2012 0.65
2013 0.62
2014 0.59
Sorry to post them in this thread which is off topic. But I think it does give some insights into a wider picture on the island.
I doubt if the 6 counties – Northern Ireland – is immune from such trends.
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Good spot,
I suspect the ratio of church weddings in general is falling across the island
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Its not quite as dramatic in Six Counties / Northern Ireland but the same trend is there.
The figures for Catholic and non Catholic religious weddings are as follows (with total religious weddings in the third column).
Year; % Catholic; % non-Catholic; % religious
1995 0.382 0.397 0.78
2004 0.358 0.327 0.68
2009 0.372 0.334 0.71
2010 0.355 0.337 0.69
2011 0.344 0.330 0.67
2012 0.345 0.346 0.69
2013 0.348 0.344 0.69
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Interesting figures Factual.
Looking at the figures you can see that the third column (total number of religious weddings) has not actually declined since 2004 in NI. There are some compositional effects: the proportion of these weddings that are Catholic has fallen since 2004 and the proportion of weddings that are of non catholic religion are rising since 2004.
Overall, it looks like South was so much more religious in 1994 than North, but over 20 years it as secularized much more rapidly, resulting in a lower proportion now of weddings that are religious in the South than in the North: a reversal of the previous position in 1994.
There is some sign that this is also happening in the North on the Catholic side, since 2004, when Catholic weddings appear to have declined, but since 2004 it does not seem to have happened to non-catholic religious weddings, which are actually up as a % of the total since 2004, according to those figures.
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Regarding Fermanagh speaking as a local and someone who was involved somewhat in Rodney’s campaign:
Those who think this is a shoo in for Sinn Fein are very mistaken in my view. This to me is a coin toss elections once more.
Mr Connor had to a lot of the campaigning on his own as the UUP and DUP locals were far less enthused with no party candidate of their own. In my view the on the day operation to get out your supporters is absolutely key. And this is were the battle was lost in my opinion, if only by the narrowest of margins.Sinn Fein had many times the party workers and activists to get their voters to the polls compared to Rodney.
Can Elliott succeed were he failed? Hard to say. The fact that he is UUP will stop some unionists from turning out, how many will be the critical factor. The Unionist party are very strong on the ground here and have a large constituency association, their largest in fact by far. To what extent they get support from DUP local workers will also influence the result.
If Elliott can increase the unionist tally to say what the total was in the last assembly election (ie about 1k more than Connor managed) he will win. A simple target on the surface, but an elusive one to actually achieve.
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Colin do you think that DUP people will stay at home because they have no candidate?
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Rowan
I have absolutely no doubt that some will, a larger number will vote for Tom with a rather heavy heart, but the vast majority of DUPers will vote for him with no qualms at all.
The problem for Elliott is he needs practically every unionist to give him a vote, even a tiny % refusing to do so will guarantee his failure, as in 2010.
In simple terms, Elliott will energise more UUP votes than Connor, but will be less attractive to voters of the other unionist parties relatively speaking. What the net effect of this is what will decide his fate. It really is unquantifiable at this point. That’s why we have elections!
PS I will also state that Elliott has more time and resources than Rodney had leading up to election day, which might have a marginal impact.
Being a ‘professional’ politician also distinguishes the two men. Elliott is well respected in the main by most unionists here, and has a track record of constituency work for both sides of the community, which must be worth some votes. However he is not without controversy, in contrast to the inoffensive Rodney. This may galvanise some nationalists to the polls, as his comments regarding SF ‘scum’ and remarks about GAA didn’t go down too well among many to put it finely.
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What seems strange here is that what is most marginal of seats should be deemed to be anyway ‘safe’ given that there is a pact again this time. From the SF point of view anyway the SDLP will take the blame if the seats ‘falls’ and if the SF % vote went up overall and they lost this seat I dont think that is strategically a big deal given the size of stick to beat the arse of the SDLP with for not agreeing on a Nat pact.
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One point of view that is taken is that Westminster is pointless. A sideshow where SF don’t even play and the DUP/UUP are looked down on as troublesome Irish. For the SDLP to stand aside and risk losing traction in the council and assembly elections would be foolish. Personally I think there are political games to be played but I’m maybe more underhand than the SDLP would like to be.
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Agree Sammy, as I said above I played a minor role here in 2010 and this will be close regardless of the eventual winner.
I’d be very surprised if there’s more than 1k in it either way.
Both the single candidates have their respective drawbacks and advantages:
Rodney: Relatively obscure, smallish ground operation, limited help from main two parties, short time to campaign. However he was not a hate figure by any stretch and vitally had across the spectrum unionist support.
Elliott: Well known, history of ground work, large and enthusiastic local campaign operation, plenty of time for campaigning. But the party label will repel some, whether the local DUP will help his campaign is a big if, past controversy which may aid republican turnout.
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Zig,
The (local) difficulties for the SDLP in standing aside in FST would be offset by getting SF to stand aside in SB – if either of these seats are lost then the SDLP will get blamed (by Nats) for both.
Colin,
It must be a significant incentive to DUP voters to oust SF – whilst apathy/complacency in Nat community must be significant risk to the seat for SF.
If SF retain the seat then it seems unlikely that Unionism will ever wrestle it back with Unionist voters probably assuming it is ‘lost’ in future Westminster elections.
In NB, if Dodds wins but has his majority cut, suggesting SF might win next time(always next time lol), then Robinson the Younger in EB will be a stronger position to go for the leadership when the Robinson the Elder moves on.
Happily trade FST for NB.
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For some reason I can’t reply to you below re NB.
Surely its unlikely Dodds will have a reduced maj since he has no unionist competition?
SF had a bit of momentum going here which seems to have stalled somewhat since 2010.
His campaign is rather clever. Election literature delivered in Rathcoole and Shore Rd have images of him in his sash, union jack prominent ect, whereas leaflets to lower Glengormley talk of his support for Mater hospital, attendance at Westminster and such. Tall about playing to different audiences!
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