South Belfast is hotting up as a potential electoral touchstone for the forthcoming elections. Within the nationalist camp we have the increasingly blunderingly percievied incumbent, Dr Al versus the “social media and finger on the pulse” expert, Máirtin O’M. If the SDLP had an ounce of media management sense the well meaning leader would not be let out without a team of minders in possession of a short leash and a well written script. A well worn dictum of the dark arts of PR is never to let a silence fill the airwaves of a disaster. A worse decision is to fill the silence with bluff and bluster.
Sinn Fein seldom make that elementary mistake. That may be a crucial difference come May.
Who will win come May in South Belfast?
This is now a nationalist seat. Unthinkable 20 years ago but now a fact
The only chance Unionism has of winning this seat is via a “pact”.
Think about that that for a minute. Could you imagine Carson, the Dubliner, Paisley or Craigavon admitting that South Belfast could fall to a non Unionist candidate? Let alone squabbling about how to stop “themmuns” keeping the seat.
What we have is eleven pro union parties and two pro reunification parties so far.
Game on
"We in coming days may be" 
No harm to re-iterate to your readers that SF has NO CHANCE in this seat. With the DUP announcing they will campaign hard in this seat (if not a unity candidate) a vote for SF, All or Greens is almost a vite for the DUP. McDonnell looks bumbling but he’s still a big hitter and has bags more experience at the top end of politics.
Almost which M O’M was deployed in NB instead.
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Completely agree with this. I
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contd. I am no fan of McDonnell but he will be getting my vote in May. Greens, SF have no chance. Anna Lo might have tempted me if she stood but sorry Paula Bradshaw was standing as a Unionist last time round and hasn’t any of the personality or appeal of Anna Lo to change my mind. I actually posted on politics.ie that Mom should have been parachuted into North Belfast. He cant do anything here. Even if he started to win over SDLP voters to the point that that the SDLP would lose the seat then the huge pale green vote here would more likely rally behind a sensible alliance candidate and not SF. Lets not forget it wont be long until there are only 5 assembly seats/ constituency so even if MoM did improve the SF vote here it at most will get them an extra council seat and nothing else. North Belfast however you might find plenty of Alliance and SDLP voters more willing to give MoM a vote than Gerry Kelly to oust Dodds!
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Sinn Fein maybe looking to the future with running MOM. He builds a good foundation in the constituency now and in the next few years. When Alistair McDonnell retires MoM will be best placed to replace him. He is probably the best possible candidate SF has for the type of constituency South Belfast is. So Máirtin O’M a shoe in for 2019?
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This is still a seat converted from unionist control to SDLP in ten years. Even when Mcdonald steps down they still have the most functioning constituency operation of all the parties here. Claire Hanna is well liked in the Balmoral area and would have overcome M’OM ‘s vote of the SDLP didn’t have a 2nd runner in the area. Fergus mckinney is getting dug in at the laganbank end too. I think it’s great to have M’OM running here but SF never overnominate and have never been above quota so theyll not be taking a seat from the sdlp any time soon. In a 6 seater his surplus, if he has one, will shore up the weaker sdlp runner. If it does go 5 seater I can’t see anything other than an sdlp loss. Unless demographics continue to swing, SF and All would have a secure seat , so the only way the sdlp could hold on is for the unionist vote to continue to nose dive below 2 quotas. Three nationalist quotas would be 50% of the vote. Out of the question for now. Although when one looks at wet minster 2010. Sdlp got 41% with SF areas polling 30% sometimes. Let’s say that number would be boosted to 44/45 with a SF candidate Then we’d be looking at the destination of alliance surpluses and green eliminations. I’m actually very interested in the quotas this time round.
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Unionist Unity as an idea has not been too kind to Unionists
delivering failure on a split nationalist vote each time.
It gives the distinctive impression of a lack of confidence in the
individual parties involved in the quality of their own brand name
and a lack of belief in their own members strengths.
But where does these pacts end, Upper Bann, North Belfast, South Belfast
and even East Belfast of all places? A seat that could be decided by a few loaned nationalist votes,
now who would have thought of that nationalists could potentially decide who wins East Belfast.
That is the problem nothing is certain anymore.
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Unionists in a similar way to the Orange Order with regards land will do whatever is necessary to keep Catholics out of a seat. Expect Tom Elliott to get a free run in FST in return for the UUP not nominating candidates in EB and SB.
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Enda,
I was intrigued by that article where the Orange Order admitted having a slush fund with the sole purpose of excluding catholics from buying land. Some of my older, wiser, friends were less than surprised, I’ll put it no stronger than that.
I personally think there will be a deal done regarding a unionist pact. I think it will backfire as per usual and I think they will learn nothing.
My guess is that it will be FST and South Belfast only. The DUP think they will cling on in N Belfast and they regard E Belfast as theirs by right.
Hubris is a poor engine for effective decision making
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I am very surprised that anyone finds this to be news, this land purchasing has been happening for years, I recall seeing it at land auctions. The Ulster Land and Property Company has even been buying land in the republic.
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/northern_ireland/2897169.stm
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Can’t see the DUP giving Tom Elliott a free run for reciprocation in SB. It would suit the DUP if the UUP had no representation in Westminster. It could be a 2 for 1 deal.
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I have a sense of both the DUP and SF wanting to take out the lingering opposition of the UUP and SDLP. Sinn Féin might take some flak if McDonnell loses in South Belfast, but I’m sure they could live with it if it humiliates the SDLP leader and leaves that party with two seats (which could come into play in the next Westminster elections). The idea of a Unionist gain in Fermanagh & Tyrone appeals as long as it isn’t a gain for the UUP.
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I’ve been holding off on making predictions thus far due to not knowing the runners and riders as of yet. This is due to the uncertainty among the unionist parties. The striking thing so far is the confidence of SF and the SDLP compared to the uncertainty and insecurity of the Unionist parties
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SDLP are leaving it late to announce their North Belfast candidate. I think that’s probably a sign that it could be Nichola Mallon but doesn’t want to join the race as she’s in a (nominally) non-partisan position as Mayor of Belfast.
I think they’re could yet be a MO’M withdrawal. I think for SF an overall greening of the map is more pressing than the SDLP who are just fighting to hold on in their heartlands. Given that Adams was talking of unity by 2016 and all that, they’d probably need something, anything to give their supporters as evidence that it is anything other than wishful thinking. I think 9 nationalist seats, of any hew, will be something they can bring back and (half-heartedly) campaign on for a referendum next year.
Therefore SF gaining nothing but helping the SDLP lose SB doesn’t actually help them very much if it looks like the nationalist project,with SF driving, is going backwards. However, I reckon SF know the sums too and reckon McDonnell can hold the seat anyway. But they may just pull him in a gesture to SDLP voters in NB, FST and UB.
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It will be interesting to see if the Nationalist vote slips any more. Despite all the demographic change the overall Nationalist vote went down by quite a bit in the Euro elections. I am hoping that this is mostly explained by the two poor candidates chosen.
I am hoping for a Nationalist bounce in South Belfast due to SF re-entering the race, and In Newry & Armagh due to SDLP choosing McNulty and making it a genuine contest.
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The SDLP candidate good. The SF candidate lamentable.
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Why Frank?
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Check out page 27 – just out from DENI
Click to access statistical_bulletin_-_enrolments_at_schools_and_in_funded_pre-school_education_in_northern_ireland_1415_-_final-2.pdf
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Excellent stuff Jonesy, and well worth a read, thank you
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Have you any figures re Catholics/Protestants (both terms used in usual loose sense to describe nationalists/unionists) in South Belfast, Bangordub? That would clarify claims/predictions
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Take the oldest cohort ie secondary / grammar school population from here:
http://www.deni.gov.uk/index/facts-and-figures-new/education-statistics/32_statistics_and_research-numbersofschoolsandpupils_pg/32_statistics_and_research-northernirelandsummarydata_pg.htm
Take the year 2000 dataset:
They were born between 1983-1989 (median =1986) – the proportions are:
C=51.6%, P=43.7% (using the sum of ‘P’ plus ‘other christian’)
Then taking the youngest cohort from the new dataset ie primary school – see weblink in earlier posting.
They were born between 2005-2011 (median = 2008) – the proportions are:
C=51.4%, P=37.3% (again using the sum of ‘P’ plus ‘other christian’)
So between the above ‘medians’ of 1986 -to- 2008, ie. a 22yr period, the ‘C’ proportion has been static at just over 51%. The ‘P’ plus ‘other christian’ proportion has steadily declined at around 0.3% per year. This rate of decline is presumably be in line with census datasets (someone please verify ??).
The proportion referenced as ‘other’ in the datasets has increased over this period ie 4.4% of the secondary / gramar school population in the first series of figures above (those born circa 1983-1989 (median =1986) to 10.4% of those born circa 2005-2011 (median = 2008).
I doubt whether ‘other’ can be claimed by “one side or the other”: attendance at my local (C) church has about halved over the above 22 year period with many ‘former attenders’ now claiming ‘no religion’.
All of the above ‘change’ is of course dwarfed by the massive change ongoing in the over 50s population – this is where the ‘REAL damage’ is being done (and set in stone/cannot be undone,ie. the certainty of death).
In effect, among those aged 50-80yrs, we have witnessed the old P=70-75%, C=25-30% proportions being decimated – this was the balance of the old state we grew up in !!!
This balance is now shifting (ie. among those aged 50-80yrs) to P=55%, C=45% and eventually over the next 3 decades to P=50% balance. Add this to the earlier referenced ‘early years’ changed covered above and there is still very significant change to come. In this respect the change process has around another 30-40yrs to run ie the ‘head’ of the future steady state population is currently around age 40-45yrs: Steady state will not be achieved until they are 70-75yrs. So perhaps around 2045, when the ‘steady state’ will around P=35-40%, C= 50-53%, other = 7-10%. Do your own analysis – if you disagree.
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http://www.endgameinulster.blogspot.ie/2015/02/schools-census-20142015.html?m=1
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“the Northern Ireland Catholic absolute majority is always imminent but never achieved due in large part to differential emigration.
Florida journal of international law 129 (1986-1987) pp.129-158
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A very interesting lecture from Nicholas Whyte over on Slugger today about voting, religion and indentity
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He is though in media circles to be Northern Ireland’s most (or second most) intelligent man.
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Interesting reference to the South Belfast race in the newsletter’s interview with David Ford:
In South Belfast, SDLP leader Alasdair McDonnell’s vote is expected to drop, but Alliance’s main figure in the area, Anna Lo, is not standing. Mr Ford said that “almost certainly” Alliance candidate Paula Bradshaw will poll less strongly than Ms Lo, but insisted that voters would not be put off by the fact that five years ago she stood as a Conservative and Unionist candidate, campaigning with Iain Duncan Smith in the constituency.
I cannot understand the newsletter’s desire to wish the SDLP’s vote to drop. They do it every election. But at the same time the Alliance leader, who spends the rest of the article talking up Naomi Long’s chances of retaining East Belfast, has acknowledged that Bradshaw will “almost certainly” see the Alliance’s vote drop in South Belfast.
He insisted that voters would not be put off by the same candidate “campaigning with Iain Duncan Smith in the constituency”. Course they won’t Dave.
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The way SF is behaving these days is all at sixes and sevens.
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Yeah that probably won’t affect the 8-10% who’ll vote for them no matter what but will probably make the SF leaning swing voter more likely to vote McDonnell. It’ll likely be the alliance vote that suffers most. It’ll struggle to reach the 2010 level of 15% and certainly won’t reach the 19% level of the 2011 assembly election.
Therefore I think McDonnell will poll at least 35%. I think with so many other players that it will be enough to win.
If the current list remain the same I expect something like:
SDLP 35%
DUP 27%
UUP 11%
SF 10%
All 10%
Green 3%
UKIP 2%
NiCon 1%
Workers 1%
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Very little in the media on Unionist pacts lately. UUP did ask DUP to not play things out in the media. Will the DUP be happy to give Tom Elliott a free run in FST to shore up Dodds vote. I think Dodds will win regardless given the loss of a nationalist seat I’m NB in the local elections and the trend in turnout rates.
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LAD have published a leaked press statement that is embargoed until tomorrow. DUP free run in East Belfast and North Belfast. UUP free run in FST & Newry & Armagh. No deal possible on South Belfast or Upper Bann.
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Writing it up as we speak Feckitt! You’re on the ball, I have 3 credible sources as well
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Here it is
https://m.facebook.com/story.php?story_fbid=348162942055330&id=167750270096599&refid=17
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