Good evening all,
I’ve just returned from a brief holiday in Italy. Sometimes geographical and cultural distance provides a degree of perspective, regarding matters at home, and we may return refreshed, invigorated, energised and ready to look at things anew, as it were.
I’ve had a wonderful time away. It was instructive in many ways. The Italians are a very “laid back” race in general. Trying to source a timetable for the various ferries, trains and buses involved was simply impossible. It was all sorted on the spot, at the time, in person.
I loved that.
In the same way that the new Guinness advertisement strikes me as the first really good one in a long time and genuinely makes me proud to be a Dub, the Italians are quietly proud of their culture, heritage and hospitality, but with a degree of humility.
There is no sense of hubris, superiority, supremacism or flag waving nonsense. Just quiet confidence in themselves.
I arrived back late last night and have been catching up on events here. We all know what MacMillan had to say regarding “Events”. I had more of a sense of the Churchillian “Dreary steeples”.
The, simply clueless, Theresa Villiers is doing something or other regarding parades, I’m not sure what. Slugger has appointed the “energetic” David (Fianna Fail) McCann as a “Deputy Editor”, God help us and my old mate Barton Creeth thinks it’s great setting up a food bank in South Belfast. Barton. We have memories of such things in Ireland, long memories. Food banks, though well intentioned, are an indictment of where we are in 2014.
While in Italy at a particularly beautiful setting over a few, post dinner, bottles of wine, we, Mrs Bangordub and myself, found ourselves in conversation with a lovely couple from Cheshire. We found common ground on many topics over a few hours.
Particularly when the Scottish Independence vote came up during the course of our chatter. They were of the opinion that we were “better together”. I, naturally, agreed.
I’m not sure they were expecting my perspective on the subject however. It never occurred to them, I suspect, that I was looking at things as an Irishman.
"We in coming days may be" 
On that food bank thing, I’m reminded of the words of Helder Camara. Of course, we know now the media, including Slugger’s blogger types, regard those who asked why, how Slugger types regarded she well meaning in Occupy Belfast or at the city hall, protesting against the G8.
For the second time, in response to Peter promising to squweem and squweem (Just William fans?) yet again, Villiers throws him a bare bone, so free of meat, the Dali Lama could lick it. Of course, Robo ain’t no shinner so Mick and the lads ain’t putting up multiple blogs about his ridiculous behaviour. Save for John and Chris’ increasingly rare pieces, it become an anti Sinn Fein blog with other childish sneering thrown in to fill the gaps.
You haven’t mentioned the welfare debacle but I’ll throw that one on too. Sinn Fein have been taking all the heat whilst the SDLP walk around with their hands in their pockets, heads…erm…stooped as if they are not onside with the shinners. Meanwhile, we are in the fortunate position to see what the welfare changes will make by read in the articles in the Mirror, Guardian and Independent about people driven to suicide, cancer sufferers going to their graves without receiving their benefits etc.
As we’d expect, the DUP Daily Brodcast aka Nolan Show, is on board with a whole month of shows given to bashing the shinners ( also four interviews with big ears, showing which side of the DUP civil war Nolan is on) with my sanity only saved last Friday by The Blessed St Fionnuala O’ Connor (she tends to.do that) when she scoffed at the antics of politicians and the media.
By the way, how ,come you didn’t take Fitzy with you?
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” Sinn Fein have been taking all the heat whilst the SDLP walk around with their hands in their pockets, heads…erm…stooped as if they are not onside with the shinners. ”
You know I kind of agree with this but the answer should be a cold hard ‘tough’. SF sought a mandate to be the top dogs and regardless of the SDLP position legislation passes or falls at SF’s whim. So if they don’t want to ever take an unpopular decision they shouldn’t be in government. One of the few things I’ve heard Robinson say that I agree with is that the entire SF executive team see what Alex Attwood’s position and cower at being out-lefted/out-populisted. Personally I think this goes beyond politics as the SDLP has voted against it in parliament. Having said that, I reckon there are many in the SDLP who see this getting out of hand but know that honestly it’s not in their gift so f*ck it. Let SF take some heat for a change. SF only seem to select ministries that they can shower goodies on the population with: Open a new stadium, open a school, open a Fleadh, open an agriculture fare etc..
SF were very good at saying the SDLP ‘take the oath’ but have since been quiet on that since McGuinness can’t keep his hands off Lizzy these days. Accused the SDLP of being lazy abstentionists quoting a derisory attendance figure in the HoC given that it includes debates on matters the SDLP has no earthly business being anywhere near.
Now that Welfare costs is a stick to beat SF with they don’t like it. They have so far talked themselves into a corner. The only face-saving way out of this that I can see is for complete talks that result in agreements on all the identity issues in exchange for the penalties being withdrawn for leglislating the welfare reform.
I don’t see it happening. SF will not want this to be seen as caving in, the DUP will be out-hardlined by the TUV not to give an inch and nothing will happen. Therefore I think the whole sorry facade will come crashing down.
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Meaning fresh assembly elections. SF will make gains. DUP will see losses. Could Marty be head honcho?
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Enda,
I’ve made the correction above for you but it made me think. Was “Mary” rather than “Marty” Freudian? I’m thinking Mary-Lou for Taoiseach
Given todays Irish Times Poll results that would make SF the largest party on the Island 😉
http://www.irishtimes.com/news/politics/sinn-f%C3%A9in-level-with-fine-gael-opinion-poll-shows-1.1956315
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I don’t see Gerry going anywhere in the short term. I think Pearse is the man when the time comes or Eamon O Cuiv perhaps!
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Yet again, there are protestant callers, some proclaiming to be former DUP voters, phoning talk radio and giving their support to Sinn Fein. As things stand, Simon Hamilton is seeking a loan to keep the status quo on welfare and this is added to London’s promise to allow greater control on welfare to the Scots. Had the SDLP not thrown the shinners the welfare bomb, some of this glory could have been their’s.
As for Sinn Fein taking the easy briefs, this ignores the ongoing, bruising war on education, where they have taken on the elitist elements of the Catholic and Protestant authorities as well as unionism. Of course, the ministers will be accused of popularism but that ignores the heat they’ve taken over school closures and putting even high profile schools in to special measures.
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Lol,
Let me get this outta the way firstly, Mr Fitz and I, although now firm friends, have a healthy disregard for our own standpoints. We would not be happy if we agreed on everything in much the same way that I have a healthy respect for many others who comment here but would not share my own particular views on everything. (Sammy and Carrickally take note)
Slugger? Yeah I know where you’re going. The anti Republican thing is now accepted as a fact. That’s something for the new “Dep Ed” perhaps to address?
The real welfare issue in my opinion is devolution of taxation and spending powers.
The interesting thing in the DUP/ SF argument is who has a strategy?
I’m pretty sure I know who doesn’t
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Sinn Fein have moved beyond the Norn Iron agenda and has done for some time now, they’ve a crystal clear agenda. The DUP are all over the place. They react only as each issue comes up, with no political or economic philosophy. One minute Peter is appealing to taigywaigys, next he’s standing with a multiple taigywaigy killer ( still refusing that public handshake with Marty, I think).
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Much as I’m fond of him, I think now is the fervent time for Gerry to step down as leader. He had a great victory over the authorities and has, today, delivered the party in to the top position on a poll. No doubt,the corpses are being dusted off, Ann Travers will be making space for interviews. Gerry has a rare quiet time, space to step down without offering the Dublin 4 and BT9 crowd a ‘victory’.
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Don’t see Gerry Adams going anywhere before 2016 – he’s the largest vote-getter in Ireland. Period.
BangorDub – nice one with the “Better Together” with your fellow tourists from England – may not have exactly been the kind of positive thinking they had in mind
🙂
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Thanks NM,
I have to say they weren’t expecting my response. I simply used their own logic and applied it from an Irish perspective. There was no argument but I’d love to have taken a pic of their faces. It was apparent that they had never tried to place themselves in others shoes. In fairness they accepted my point, it was just that it had never occurred to them to do that previously. That’s what reading the Daily Mail does to yer brain I suppose
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The Belfast Telegraph/ LucidTalk poll results in detail are published on the Lucidtalk website:
Click to access BelTelePollRes-Oct2014.pdf
Interesting reading. I held back making a certain point on the 2013 poll to give the 2014 poll a chance to be published. That observation is: Despite census information giving us a clear insight into the demographic make-up of NI, most pertinently the state of our two main communities at ~ 48% and 45%, the BT poll has again published results which, by it’s own methodology, are unrepresentative.
For example on page 17 (poll question 6 on Political party support) out of 1089 people polled, 16.8% intend to vote SF, 10.6% intend to vote SDLP, and a massive 30% have no opinion which get stripped out for a percentage “of those who intend to vote”.
Further down the page however the same “horizontal analysis” has managed to get a sample which is 43% Prot. 30% cath. 17.1% other and 9.9% none. This raises a number of problems. Either the methodology is suspect or the people on the other end of the phone are not being honest: I suspect the latter. I’m not sure people are yet comfortable with being asked bluntly what religion they are for the purposes of writing it down and recording it so ‘other’ and ‘none’ is quite handy. In fact an identical share of both main communities say they won’t vote and a larger share of ‘others’ say they won’t. But the ‘Nones’ are interestingly the mostly politically assidious group by this measure recording the lowest ‘won’t vote’ level.
It’s stuff like this which always raises question marks over these polls. Either the methodology is duff and unrepresenative in which case, it’s useless or the proportionately more others and nones voting SDLP and SF means that they are either not telling that they’re from a cath. background in which case the analysis itself is a waste of time.
Let’s just say for a moment we consider that the first option is true and that the BT have managed to over poll others and nones, slightly underpoll prot. and greatly underpoll cath. then in order to have some credibility in relative terms at least, another 112 cath people would need to be surveyed. That might change the results somewhat. Having said that for the reasons I already stated, there may be underlying factors in which case the poll is a mess one way or another. The same under-representation takes place in 2013.
Another little nugget is this: They broke it down regionally into 9 areas with around 11% of their polling down in each. It appears, although I could be wrong, that an even geographic spread appears to be the control that they wish to keep constant. Apart from the fact the areas are a bit hard to identify (‘belfast and surrounding area” is particularly ambiguous)and I don’t have a broad mental map of all the post codes. However I would say that ‘Belfast and surrounding area’ sounds considering bigger area than North Down. If we considered ‘belfast and surrounding area’ to roughly equate to the 4 Belfast constituencies and North Down to be just that – The North Down consitituency – then it’s clear that a smaller area is being weighted proportionally higher than a larger area. Given that in this case the small area is overwhelmingly unionist while Belfast is balanced with a small nationalist plurality, it’s clear whose views are being magnified.
Tyrone and Fermanagh are also considered as one unit, and yet again we can see they would equate to about 2 and a half to 3 strongly nationalist constituencies (FST, WT and ~ 1/2 MU). If someone would like to peruse the postcode map then by all means but even then, we don’t know rough populations. The point goes back to: why weight towards arbitrary geographic regions having an equal say rather than, Belfast city council getting a higher weighting and Moyle council getting a lower one.
I’m sure I could find a whole lot of other glaring irregularities and outright school boy howlers, but I thought I’d leave it at those two observations and allow others a chance to come back at them or to make their own observations for now.
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Great piece of analysis Charlie,
I’ve always been sceptical of BT polls but will have a closer look along the lines above
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Charlie,
The main problem with this poll is the 17% that identify as other. The 9.9% who state None match with the 9.9% adults who stated None in the census but remember the None group in the census includes those who were raised in a religion. It would be expected that the None group in the poll (based on the census) would be
None 4%
None (raised Protestant) 4%
None (raised Catholic) 2%
The census None would be expected to be approximately 60% unionist and 40% nationalist but the poll None is the exact opposite.
In the census the Other ( which would include some Christians who are not Protestant) was only ~4% but the poll shows 17%. Obviously most of that group were people who refused to reveal their religion. They appear to be more Catholics since the nationalist unionist breakdown is 60% to 40%. Even taking this into account the Catholic percentage in the poll is too low by 4% to 5%. I think the poll is useful since it does show the relative strength of the parties within each community. For an Assembly election it is probably not accurate in predicting the party vote among unionist parties since all the unionist MP’s are DUP (except Sylvia Hermon). I would expect the TUV, PUP, and UKIP vote to be higher for an Assembly election based on the 2014 Euro and Council election results.
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Faha,
Happy to let you drill down into the numbers but my point remains that the poll remains dubious at best. Since the need for equal numbers of people from arbitrary areas is followed I’d say that is probably the main root of the problem. Pretty school boy stuff. Particularly as we have so much other information out there that uses council units or constituency units.
Agree with the point about internal party preference mechanics. The ‘vertical’ and ‘horizontal’ analysis would actually be quite useful references if the polling wasn’t so duff to begin with.
The vertical analysis tells us the individual parties geographic spread across NI. For example the SDLP apparently gets 20.9% of it’s support in “Derry and surrounding area” on the face of it, a reasonable enough result. Foyle is an SDLP heartland. The other areas included are roughly Limavady and Magherafelt districts which are more SF but still have solid SDLP pockets. The Lucidtalk poll therefore ruins what would be a useful study by weighting things according to their arbitrary regions. In the case of Derry, Limavady and Magherafelt, a quick and dirty calculation works out that they together make up about 10.3% of the current electorate so the LT poll isn’t far off with 10.7%. It’s good that it isn’t that far off in this case. The North Down post codes is roughly Ards and North down councils which is only about 9.1% of the electorate but 11.1% of the poll. The Belfast postcodes would appear to include castlereagh but perhaps those with local knowledge could correct me. If it’s just Belfast it’s still 14.3% of the electorate compared with 11.9% polled. If it includes Castlereagh that number grows to 18.2%.
The horizontal analysis is probably a little more immune to the poor polling methodology. Derry and surrounding areas has SF at 23.1% and SDLP at 20.5%. At first I thought SDLP where in trouble but when I discovered it includes Magherafelt and Limavady I actually think that it means they are probably ahead in Foyle and not too far behind in Magherafelt and Limavady. Which led me to stumble across another possible polling problem…The question asks ” who do you intend to vote for at THAT election? ” Doesn’t that lend itself to tactical voting? Most people may read this as “who do you usually vote for” but some may include their tactical preference.
Something to think about.
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Postcard must be held up.
Anyway thanks to Mick F at Slugger for his help with the referendum.
And thanks also to Ukip, they will help in splintering the Unionist vote this side of the North Channel.
Every little bit of help is needed in wiping out the smirk off Scottish Labour faces.
Roll on next May.
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Not sure that the logic of a united Ireland reads over to Scotland remaining in the UK. Scotland is, after all, larger than the entire island of Ireland when its own island communities are included, and has far more natural resources.
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Not sure of the logic of “Scotland, is after all, larger than Ireland”. So is Greenland.
The population of Ireland is larger than Scotland.
So what ?
The population of Estonia is smaller than Scotland or Ireland – but they have independence, just like Ireland.
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http://www.independent.co.uk/news/business/comment/city-eye-facts-on-a-plate-our-population-is-at-least-77-million-395428.html
80 million people living in the UK.
I wonder how accurate that makes the recent cencus?
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