On the 18th of September Scotland will vote for full independence from the UK. The result may have seismic repercussions in this part of the World, The Orange Order have already said they will withdraw from Scotland if a yes vote is passed. Their Scottish “Grand Master” came out with this beauty: “We are primarily a Christian and charitable fraternal organisation, we rarely step into the political arena.”
Without doubt unionism in the north east of Ireland will have a lot of soul searching and re-evaluation to do in the event of a Yes vote.
The never ending series of Belfast Telegraph polls telling us we are all “Northern Irish” now, may have to be revisited. The Scottish act of union 407 years ago allied with 407 years of pro union propaganda has come down to a 3% swing needed in the vote over the last two weeks. That is a narrowing of the gap from a required 7% swing in mid August and a 10% swing a month earlier. The implications for a similar vote here, particularly given the low registration and voting habits of the CNR community are intriguing.
The “Naw” campaign has been about scaremongering, economic fear and exploiting the uncertainty that independence will bring. The reality is that not one of the countries that has gained its independence, ever, has changed its mind. Not one.
“Yes” can win this. Momentum is everything in politics. My call is that they will do it, just. It is a decision for the Scottish people which is why I have made few comments on this so far. I wish them well whatever they choose but I will watch with interest the reaction of Ulster Unionists to the results.
I’ll leave you with the words and music of a Scottish Band and a poll for your thoughts.
RJC said:
Momentum is certainly with the ‘Yes’ campaign now. If Unionism in the north is suffering an identity crisis now, God help them when Scotland leaves the Union…
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An Sionnach Fionn said:
Experience tells us that the status quo is always favoured in referendums that would involve major political, legal or constitutional changes. People prefer certainty and the devil they know unless convinced that they will benefit materially from the proposed changes. That said there are always the exceptions to the rule, the ones that upset the polling companies. My head says it is too close to call, my heart says the Scots might just do it.
Anecdotally I can say that my Scottish friends are all “Yes” voters or “Yes”-leaning “Undecideds”. If the polls are right those who have not made up their minds are leaning towards “Yes” so that could swing it. However my brother’s Scottish girlfriend and her family seem to be almost reluctant “Yes” voters. I wonder are they just saying “Yes” because it is the Edinburgh zeitgeist? When in the privacy of the polling booth will they simply bottle it and plump for a shamefaced “No”?
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Scots Anorak said:
I think you mean 307 years rather than 407.
Do you have a reference for the Orange Order’s plans to withdraw from Scotland in the event of a Yes vote? If it were true, it would certainly make people more likely to vote Yes, including the majority of Scots Protestants.
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Aidan said:
Brilliant speach from Jim Sillars.
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sammymcnally said:
Aidan,
Yes absolute stormer of a speech.
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hoboroad said:
Oil and Gas found of the Shetland Islands Could Last 100 years and be worth 1 trillion pounds.
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sammymcnally said:
As ever BDs optimism is not share by yours truly. But there can be no doubt that Alex has seriously frightened the British ‘establishment’. Patrick Power my investment broker of choice has ‘No’ at 2/7 and ‘Yes’ at 5/2. This sounds about right to me.
What Alex hasn’t done so far, is to fight on idealistic grounds and confined himself to taking on the economic argument head on. I think tactically he has got this right and as I am someone whose natural instinct would be to go immediately to Scotland if they were to throw off the yoke of British imperialism and celebrate – I find myself reluctantly looking at the strength of the ‘Unionist’ case and conceding they have on balance the stronger economic arguments on their side. (Confirmed oil discoveries may of course change that).
It is also the case, that the ‘Union’ has been positive for Scotland in many regards and there is genuine feeling amongst most English and Welsh people of being better and stronger together.
If the Yes vote gets within 10% of the No vote then the boy Alex will have done very good – and should the Engleze opt out of Europe after the next election will be in very strong position to go again and win.
One perhaps not great side-effect of a very welcome Yes vote is the boat loads of not the most pleasant Unionists who might look to this side of the Irish sea to find a place to celebrate their culture.
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Political Tourist said:
Strange strange political times in Scotland.
There can’t be family, pub, club or workplace were nobody talks of the referendum.
Something slightly surreal about Saltires appearing in street after street.
The No camp activists seem to be outnumbered by 6-1 by the YES side.
From what was a joke (Scottish Independence) at FJH (our elder statesman on here) birth to days away from the possible end of Great Britain.
Strange strange times.
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hoboroad said:
Nigel Farage is planning a Pro-Union rally in Glasgow on the 12th of September. With the big Orange walk in Edinburgh the week before the referendum vote. Could the No camp do anything more to piss off traditional Labour supporting Catholics in Scotland?
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sammymcnally said:
Hobo,
Abse-fecking-loutely.
Only issue could be counter demonstrations will allow the boy Nige to claim (as previously) that the Nats are bigots and intolerant – perhaps that is his plan?
Hopefully he will be allowed to march in splendid isolation and there will be quite a bot of crossover with the OO and UKIP marches.
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hoboroad said:
Part 1-Behind the Scenes of Braveheart-Defence Fo…: http://youtu.be/sQjeOoKNS0s
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hoboroad said:
Part 2-Behind the Scenes of Braveheart-Defence Fo…: http://youtu.be/5vShQ3gQVPk
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Political Tourist said:
Would the SDLP support their sister party in Scotland when the Labour leadership is calling for a No vote?
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hoboroad said:
Sunday Times/YouGov opinion poll:
Should Scotland be an independent country?
Yes 51% (+4)
No 49% (-4)
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Political Tourist said:
My personal favourite over the last couple of years came from six county unionism.
When asked about Scotland they always answered “I don’t see any evidence of support for independence”.
Made me wonder who they spoke to in Scotland.
Couldn’t have been anybody from working class Larkhall.
The polls from “Larky” are running at 60%+ for a YES vote.
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hoboroad said:
TNS-BMRB New Opinion Poll
Yes 50%
No 50%
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Political Tourist said:
Wonder if the bookies are still offering 6/1 for a YES win.
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hoboroad said:
Rumours sweeping Twitter that Rupert Murdoch is about to swing the Scottish Sun behind the Yes Campaign.
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Political Tourist said:
Interesting to see if this is the YES campaigns “Derby 1745” moment.
Possible 3 British armies moving in on them, Labour, Liberals and Tories.
Do they move forward towards the prize or return homeward to think again.
Over to you, FJH.
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jude42 said:
Interesting poll which looks respectable but hasn’t had much publicity. Maybe more should know? (As they should that the Daily Record poll was conducted by phoning land-lines. An awful lot of young people do mobiles only. Just sayin’, like)
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jude42 said:
Cheesh – forgot to add link to poll. Here ’tis…
http://barker.co.uk/scotlandpoll#.VBGD1P2y60J.twitter
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Political Tourist said:
Everything and including the kitchen sink being thrown at the YES side.
Abject poverty will befall the Scots if they leave the UK according to the British Establishment.
Shame shame shame on Labour siding with the Tory/Ukip camp.
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Billy the Kid said:
Democracy has been the biggest loser during the last few weeks. The level of debate has rarely risen above the floor. I must say the “No” campaign being the biggest culprits by a long way. For such a serious debate it is scarey that so-called serious politicans resort to the pie-in-the-sky statistics to justify their arguments.
The truth is, neither side can say with any degree of certainty how successful Scotland would be if independent.
The last few weeks the No campaign has changed their tone from the patronising and condescending “You (The Scottish) will never be able to manage your own country” to “We really love you, lets all fly scottish flags”. How pathetic.
I do think that Scottish people being in control of their own destiny is probably the most persuasive argument I’ve heard for either side. But I do accept that there are plenty of valid arguments for and against independence – why don’t we hear them?
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Croiteir (@Croiteir) said:
I watched the Dimbleby program and listened to Salmond and Brown. maybe my prejudices just seeked affirmation but I considered Salmond to be the most persuasive. I would therefor be a Yes voter but I do believe that No will edge it simply due to fear of the unknown
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boondock said:
55 to 45 win for no but so close that the subject will continue to tick over until the next time. Unfortunately we will have to endure several TV interviews with our own Unionists claiming it as some great victory.
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Croiteir (@Croiteir) said:
If so the next episode will start at the forthcoming euro referendum, if England votes no and the Scots vote yes.
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boondock said:
I should be paid for these predictions and the inevitable gloating by some of our politicians will soon get under way. 45% is being claimed on slugger and the Bel Tel as a crushing defeat!! Yeh right 45% means that this is just going to bubble in the background for a bit. I noted elsewhere that the older generation strongly voted NO throw in the fact that Westminster is now under prssure to deliver on their vows/promises. Any failure to do so will just pave the way for the next referendum in 5 or 10 years.
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carrickally said:
Seems that of the demonstrations at the weekend, the one which hurt its own side most was the somewhat angry Yes picket at BBC Scotland; the Orange demonstration, abhorred by everyone on all sides, was well organised and disciplined.
Here’s hoping that Scotland votes No, that the reform of the UK continues and our nation continues to improve democratically.
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sammymcnally said:
carrickally, I have to admit to being very disappointed with the good behaviour of the OO.
I have always been a fan of Gordon Brown – who has been excellent – and not only in comparison to Miliband and Cameron. Dave has the demeanour of a closeted kid who has inadvertently wandered into what he considers to be an unpleasant area and seems surprised that people don’t seem to like him.
… and so to Alex. – I have long considered him the best politician in these islands but the YES campaign has been nothing short of sensational.
Gwan the blues.
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bangordub said:
Carrickally, I think it was instructive that the No campaign distanced itself very publicly from the OO demo, Nevertheless I’m looking forward to an interesting night ahead!
Sammy, wasn’t it interesting how in the latter days of the campaign Brown was propelled to the front of the No campaign and Darling was effectively sidelined?
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sammymcnally said:
BD,
The boy Gordon was outstanding – as a mild fan of Miliband I’m afraid the contrast was stark.
In relation to Darling – he simply doesn’t have the rhetorical style needed when the debate moved from the balance sheet – though he was a good choice by the No campaign on the whole.
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bangordub said:
I disagree regarding Darling, I think he was frankly useless, but Gordon steadied the ship for the nay sayers there is no doubt. The debate was lost on the balance sheet although that should have been the Yes sides best hand
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sammymcnally said:
BD,
re. “I think he was frankly useless”
didn’t Alistair (according to neutral observers) have the edge on Alex in the first debate?
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bangordub said:
It depends on who ye’d call “Neutral” lol. The fact that he was effectively sacked speaks for itself I would think
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sammymcnally said:
re. “It depends on who ye’d call “Neutral” lol.”
Those would be the same people who thought Alex won the 2nd debate.
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zig70 said:
Either way I find it a bit exciting. Can’t wait for our own.
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benmadigan said:
if senior british labour politician Jack Straw gets his way, NI will never get a referendum – never, ever, ever!!
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Political Tourist said:
Can we now expect to see the Scottish Saltire on a Belfast bonfire.
Personally saw the Better Together crowd burning Saltires last night.
Maybe they should be called Bitter Together.
Or maybe Bigots Together.
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