In case anyone missed it, there happen to be two elections tomorrow.
The Euros of which more below and the local council elections.
For an unreconstructed number cruncher like myself this is manna from Heaven. I can’t wait for the counts to kick off on Friday morning !
Perhaps it would be useful to open a thread here recording results as they come in. Any and all info is welcome. For the record the results of the Europoll here are posted below, complete with full preferences.
I will have limited access to the blog on Friday but I look forward to the fun and games
Enjoy the day
wolfe tone said:
Bangordub, thanks to your blog, especially, i am going to vote for the first time in about 15/16 years. You have successfully convinced me not be a ‘dont vote is a wasted vote’ person. Credit to you mo chara.
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Feckitt said:
Good man Wolfe Tone. Remember to transfer your vote, and encourage your friends and family to get out and vote.
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Ulster-Celt said:
Looking forward to studying the results.can nationalism increase it’s overall percentage? has the fleg issue had a significant impact in relation to Alliance and the fringe unionist parties.Will Allister damage the DUP.are the UUP steadying the ship? Has Sinn Fein plateaued in the North? How will Belfast pan out and is NI21 a busted flush. Also keen to see if Sinn Fein has made the predicted breakthrough in the free state….
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Enda said:
Of most interest is:
Can Attwood take the third seat?
Can Nationalists achieve a majority in Belfast?
The % break down of the three blocks in locals and Europe?
The breakdown of seats in locals among three blocks?
The breakdown of marginal Councils ABC & Causeway coast?
The Nationalist vote battle in Derry & South Down?
The SF % of the vote in the South?
Will SF take 4 European seats?
The vote % for FF/Labour/FG?
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sammymcnally said:
for me it all about Belfast – the other council are clear cut and the Euros are just a sideshow. A ‘good’ result in Belfast – 29 Nat seats, or an excellent result 30 seats – and there will fireworks and a lot of them directed to Robbo’s rear end.
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benmadigan said:
the important thing is to get out and vote!
generations of our ancestors from the Chartists to the Suffragettes fought to make sure we had a vote.
Use your vote.
Make your voice count.
Vote wisely
Reclaim who we were!!
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hoboroad said:
Just voted.
Europe Election
SF 1
SDLP 2
APNI 3
Green 4
Local Election
SDLP 1
APNI 2
APNI 3
Green 4
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carrickally said:
Me too; Euro election TUV 1, Greens 2. That’ll give a counter somewhere a giggle!
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RJC said:
Good man carrickally. Nothing if not unique 😉
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sammymcnally said:
carrickally, somewhat dangerous offerings from the pastor in North Belfast?
But have to say he dealt very well with Nolan – very good performer which will keep his supporters on board.
What have you to say on the topic?
Little heard yet from Unionist politicians – or perhaps it hasn’t been reported.
Presumably the DUP will need to choose their words carefully given that it is a voting day that is in it.
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bangordub said:
Just voted myself,
Anderson, Attwood, Brown, Lo
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carrickally said:
sammy, I have some very close Muslim friends from a couple of different families. I would consider them all as trustworthy as the friends who are Protestant, Catholic, Jewish, Hindu or of no religion.
I’ve had religious discussions with one of the dads, the sort of guy who goes against the usual Muslim stereotype. His belief system isn’t too different from mine, with predestination a very familiar area to both Presbyterians and his branch of Islam. He believes in exercising the shakri who make notes of good deeds and bad, of donating to the poor and of raising his family as best he can.
I haven’t spoken to any of my chums face to face but on facebook, they are livid. I can’t say I blame them. Whitewell has always seemed a very strange place to me and no wonder; evangelical groups don’t trust anyone but their own chosen family of souls. I’d say the Free P’s are a good example and the reluctance of the CCMS to open up their schools to equality would be another.
Mind you, McConnell has a right to voice his opinion and has said that he deplores violence. Although I disagree with his view, I would defend his ability to express it and would hope he’s not made into some sort of martyr.
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sammymcnally said:
carrickally, I agree with his right to express opinion – but there is a responsibility to not stir up racial / and or religious feelings which may turn nasty.
Integration for immigrants is the way forward and unfortunately things have drifted to far in the opposite direction.
I caught a bit of Nolan this morning and it seemed he had a lot of support.
What do think Unionist politicians should be saying?
I suspect that some Unionist politicians seeking election perhaps decided to say nothing until after the polls were closed – is that a fair observation?
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carrickally said:
sammy, there is of course a responsibility on those who speak; I find it difficult to see where offence starts to be taken (although IMHO, I thought the comments were offensive but then again, who am I?).
The Muslim families I know are Pakistani Punjabi; interestingly, they associate along ethnic rather than religious lines so you don’t see this pan-Islamic bloc. Also, I’ve noticed that Hindus, who previously in NI used to be virtually exclusively Punjabi, now associate mainly in North and South Indian ethnic groups. It just shows that we must be careful, as McConnell did, not to label Muslims as one group.
When it comes to politicians, perhaps they are better off saying nothing on individual cases but should continually press the message of immigrant integration. That’s a difficult task (and frought with irony in a country where we don’t agree with each other).
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sammymcnally said:
re. ” That’s a difficult task (and frought with irony in a country where we don’t agree with each other).”
That is a very good point. If a little uncomfortable for people on both sides of the fence.
For the record I’m personally not in favour of a separate ‘Catholic’ education but would like to see a reformed State sector which included the ‘Irish’ perspective.
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Paddy said:
The better half and I voted in South Belfast today. This was her first in NI as she is from Croatia. Turns out unplanned but we voted exactly the same: Euro 1 Anderson 2 Attwood 3 Lo and Belfast CC 1 Ó Muilleoir 2 Hanna but no 3 for that “economic unionist” Justin Cartwright from SDLP and I told him so at the doorstep too.
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boondock said:
You should have still transferred as there is a fair chance for a third nationalist seat. I think I would rather have an economic unionist from the SDLP than er an actual Unionist
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zig70 said:
Did Justin have a reply? Though sometimes you should take one for the team. 🙂
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bangordub said:
Good on you both Paddy!
From twitter:
Retweeted by Áine
Alan Chambers @alcham49 2m
North Down turnout around 20% in Donaghadee at 5pm. 30 in Groomsport. Lowly 11 at Breezemount. Overall could end as low as 40% or less.
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Paddy said:
Had a nice chat with as Gaeilge with
Bairbre de Brun at 8 am as she was handing out leaflets at the gate of th
e poling station. How many other party’s former MEPs would be doing this type of supportive work for their replacement in Europe. Total Respect!
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benmadigan said:
heard she retired because of ill-health. Glad she is well enough to be up and about again. total respect as you say.
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bangordub said:
We appear to be at a 50-55% best guess turnout so far
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Fear Feirsteach said:
When does count take place for council elections?
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Ulster-Celt said:
In the morning,with full results due by Saturday.Euro count is on Monday.
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bangordub said:
We’ll have a good indication of turnout and where tonight, 1st indications by lunch tomorrow
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bangordub said:
Ni21 imploding as I type! Politics anything but boring
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carrickally said:
I feel sorry for those who joined/started for the right reason but not so much for Basil. Surely a power trip gone wrong?
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Fear Feirsteach said:
A methaphor for 21st century Northern Ireland perhaps?
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Croiteir (@Croiteir) said:
Cushendall in 50 – 60, I went to spoil my vote to ensure I didn’t vote in my absence
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PaulG said:
Oh yes, we must always be vigilant against somebody with more sense using our votes.
By not voting, your vote has effectively been divied up between candidates. What proportion of your vote do estimate has gone to Unionists?
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Charlie said:
Lucidtalk reporting Green at ~9% in the Botanic area with almost half of the boxes tallied. That said I think I remember folling a lucidtalk pollster at the Mid Ulster count suggesting the unionist vote may be below 30% before acknowedging it was at its highest ever lol.
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boondock said:
The prediction of a second SDLP seat here was always very unlikley but if the Greens can snatch the last seat ahead of the UUP then that would be great news
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Charlie said:
Link: https://twitter.com/LucidTalk
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Ulster-Celt said:
Newtownabbey times tweeting valid vote numbers but saying count is tomorrow??? Glengormley urban and ballyclare quota to be around the 950 mark.
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Charlie said:
NI21 at over 6%. In my own sums I’m not sure weather to throw that into the unionist or ‘other’ block yet. Transfers will be important. If they transfer more or less as a centrist party, we are looking like a probable loss for a unionist. Considering Botanic lost a nationalist ward, and gained an overwhelmingly unionist ward and non-nationalist majority ward, this may actually be a good result. I hope it’s the greens rather than a second Alliance. Having heard the usual slugger diatribe of big working unionists turnout already, good to see the first result is anything but. LT also talk of O’Donnaghaile ‘keeping’ Titanic seat despite loss of Ravenhill and gain of the old Island and Sydenham.
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sammymcnally said:
Charlie,
where are you getting the results? Cant see the LU details?
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Charlie said:
Slugger appears to have stopped speculating and now taken the actual verified result for Botanic:
Link here: http://sluggerotoole.com/2014/05/23/unionist-working-class-vote-to-be-the-most-decisive-shift-of-le14/
This is the result apparently:
AP 18.1%
SDLP 16.1%
SF 15.8%
DUP 13.2%
Green 9.6%
UU 7.1%
TUV 4.9%
NI21 6.5%
Other 4.4%
NI21 actually polling well. Almost certainly going to be 1SF 1SDLP 1 Alliance 1 Green and 1 DUP. I’ll be happy with results like this all day. UUP going off a cliff
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sammymcnally said:
ta
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Charlie said:
People on Slugger seem to have either an allergy to thinking or cannot (or will) countenance the possibilty of boundary changes. That seems to include SF fans on there. The SDLP didn’t even have a two full quotas in 2011 in Laganbank. Now that they have just one, people are almost surprised that a mostly nationalist ward (specifically SDLP area) of Rosetta gone to be replaced by Blackstaff and the windsor ward leads to a loss of a nationalist seat. They never had it on paper! Put another way, if unionism is on roughly the same share of 2011 Laganbank despite losing Rosetta and gaining the village and ending up with 1 seat (I see greens beating UUP), then that’ll be a disaster surely?
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Robert said:
There are no results in, only tallies which are little more than approximations.
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Charlie said:
Robert LT now reckoning the same: Only they think the last seat is between Alliance and Green. I’d say greens have it. Apparently SDLP will elect Boyle ahead of McCarthy!
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Charlie said:
Then why has Fealty declared it a “Final verification percentage”? Its true that Botanic was the first area to verify.
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Fear Feirsteach said:
Fealty doing his usual spinning for sectarian unionism.
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charlie said:
FF,
Are you referring to the avalanche of unionist votes he was predicting earlier? Or the post with early Botanic numbers. If the latter, its showing unionists down again.
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Fear Feirsteach said:
If you think it’s spin, charlie, then it probably is.
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Ulster-Celt said:
Macedon newtownabbey 6030 votes.quota approx 850. Can nationalists make a gain here? Will be tough.
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Críostóir said:
If my area of Macedon is anything to go by I’d be very surprised at a nationalist gain. My street and a few surrounding streets in Whiteabbey contain a significant proportion of the ward’s nationalist electorate. I seen a few pages worth of the electoral register for my area and the turnout looked incredibly low; only two others on my page had voted.
If Macedon is to gain a nationalist seat it will depend heavily on the turnout from Greencastle.
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charlie said:
LT now predicting a possible 2nd SDLP final seat in Balmoral following 1 SDLP, 1SF, 1DUP and 1 All
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charlie said:
Balmoral by party (%), all boxes bar one:
SDLP 25
DUP 21
AP 15 (B 10, D 5)
SF 15
UU 11
PUP 6
NI21 4
Green 2
Other 1
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charlie said:
SDLP could miss out just. I haven’t seen first preferences yet, but there are no SF or ALL transfers available. There are some Green transfers but they could end up in the All column first and not be transferred on.
NI21 transfers crucial…
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charlie said:
I’m wrong. It looks like 1 each. My mistake. I stupidly listened to the LT commentary. One more box though apparently.
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Fear Feirsteach said:
What is this LT you speak of?
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charlie said:
LucidTalk.
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Ulster-Celt said:
Combined nationalist vote in macedon 736. Sinn Fein on 558 – probably just missing out again.
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Fear Feirsteach said:
What is quota there?
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Críostóir said:
Frustrating that I personally know hundreds of nationalists in this overwhelmingly unionist ward who didn’t bother voting.
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zig70 said:
I know Bronagh, she would have been a good councillor but needed to get the vote out. No black taxis in Whiteabbey? A least you had someone to vote for, no one in 3 milewater
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carrickally said:
I remember from talk around Whiteabbey that a former UUP councillor used to do reasonably well around Glenville, Criostoir. Was it Robinson? Think he was a local and that was as much of a thumbs up on the balance of things than him being a unionist.
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Críostóir said:
I’m not sure Ally but there are a lot of Unionists in Whiteabbey too, even in the estates. It’s quite well mixed and unusually for a working class area we get on well together.
Glenville area is in the university ward, so different candidates from Abbeyville which is in Macedon. Some of the parties would need to look up the boundaries though as I’ve seen posters advertising the next wards candidates plastered all over the place.
You’re right that a lot of people would also have traditionally lent support to a more palatable unionist, or at least one who’s seen to get things done for our area.
It’s just really disappointing that I hear so many nationalists complaining about the council and claiming they’re discriminated against, but when the time comes that they can make a difference they won’t bother their arses.
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Downshire said:
SF have just lost a seat in Antrim. Final result: 2 DUP, 2 UUP, 1 Alliance, 1 SDLP
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Ulster-Celt said:
Looks like 500 odd Sdlp votes have went to Alliance in Belfast Castle forecasts of 4 nationalists not happening now.
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Robert said:
SF poorly balanced in Castle – they may actually lose a seat!
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bangordub said:
Looks like John Barry of the Greens, interviewed here a few weeks ago, has done vert well in North Down:
Holywood: @CllrJohnBarry (GRN) beats both Alliance candidates on 1st count, first time ever in North Down.
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Fear Feirsteach said:
What is quota in Caslte?
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Downshire said:
SF lose out in Killutagh in similar fashion to Antrim. Catney of SDLP pulls ahead on transfers.
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Ulster-Celt said:
Castle quota 1500.
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Fear Feirsteach said:
Is there anywhere online where you can see the figures after each count?
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BTW said:
Castle quota = 1512
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carrickally said:
That’s amazing considering that the quota next door in Macedon is 800-odd.
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Ulster-Celt said:
The electorate in Castle is 8000 higher. Turn out equals 4000 extra voters v macedon
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BTW said:
Fear Feirsteach,
try the following:
http://www.u.tv/vote14/
Then type in whatever council.
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sammymcnally said:
Where is the boy Faha? Belfast Nats likely to get less than 28 in Belfast?
Looking a bit disappointing…
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Ulster-Celt said:
Sdlp were a couple of hundred votes off a gain in Belfast Castle in 2011. Demographics and changed boundaries suggested a gain this time.one councillor elected here and the sdlp second candidate has been excluded. The unionist percentage stayed the same as 2011. Next to be elected should be Sdlp then PUP will be eliminated. Could Sinn Fein loose out here? Or will Alliance take a Unionist seat.
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Ulster-Celt said:
Sdlp have transferred more to Alliance in Castle.PUP next to be excluded then probably sinn Fein. Predictions all round for four nationalists in Castle look like it will be alliance gain from sinn Fein. 2 nationalist seats.
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Ulster-Celt said:
Possible 25/25 split in Belfast with alliance and others holding balance.Will Sdlp vote in glengormley also switch to alliance? Just like neighbouring castle. Sdlp having a poor election and their vote still unwilling to transfer to sinn fein.
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Fear Feirsteach said:
Not sure about the rest of the city but this is a terrible election for nationalist parties in North Belfast. NIgel Dodds has nothing much to worry about.
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Ulster-Celt said:
Terrible for Sdlp.sinn Fein has maintained their vote.
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Fear Feirsteach said:
As we keep pointing to demographic trends they should be increasing it.
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PaulG said:
FF,
You can hardly complain about Nationalist turnout or vote when you haven’t voted for them yourself !
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bangordub said:
Another day to go of this! Very poor nationalist showing so far. Is it the traditional mid term “bloody nose” for the governing parties?
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Fear Feirsteach said:
The mid-term scenario isn’t really apt though. At the end of the term we get the same lot back for another term, whether we like it or not. There’s a lot of apathy about – and then some.
I voted Independent though I reckon my vote eventually found its way to the SDLP candidate who was elected.
In the Euros I voted for Anna Lo, the anti-colonialist candidate. I gave that windbag Attwood my second preference – fat lot of good it’ll do him though.
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Séamas Ó Sionnaigh (An Sionnach Fionn) said:
Back from a late vote in a cold, wet and miserable night.
Euro preferences,
1: SF
2: SP
3: PBP
Local preferences,
1: SF
2: UL
3: UL
4: AAA
5: GP
6: Ind
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sammymcnally said:
BD, too early for post mortems but SF clearly disappointed about Belfast. Good news for them in SDLP heartlands and very good news in the South.
From a Nat perspective North Belfast, even with a still higher Nat turnout(I’m guessing here) is looking safe for Deputy Dodsy – as FF points out.
Our erstwhile friend from Ulster is Doomed would not be best pleased.
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bangordub said:
We’re back to Faha’s point regarding nationalist lack of turnout.
FF,
I agree with what you say but I do think the apathy is as a result of the poor Stormont performances of SF and the DUP in particular.
Hence the DUP getting a whack in the west from the UUP.
In the SF scenario, The transfers will make interesting reading from the SDLP
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Fear Feirsteach said:
I suspect SF had the majority of their resources deployed on the Euro-elections in the 26-counties. I didn’t witness much of a campaign in N.B. – one canvass by members of Ógra and then a car driving round playing traditional music on polling day.
As fo the SDLP, well Alliance got their sympathy vote this time round. Lo’s comments re: united Ireland played their part too.
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Croiteir (@Croiteir) said:
Keep telling ya – but like your friends in Slugger you do not listen, keep pushing anti catholic policies you do not get Catholic votes. Same Sex Marriage and abortion means that the votes go elsewhere or do not bother
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bangordub said:
My “friends” in Slugger?
Have you seen the stick I get when I post there?
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sammymcnally said:
A Party should have policies based on principle – you cant be a left wing party like SF tell us they are and have right wing social policies like you are suggesting.
The Catholic church has totally disgraced itself in Ireland North and South – any other organisation would have been closed down for organising industrial scale child abuse. They certainly should have no role in education – irrespective of the their role in bush schools in years gone by. It is a failed institution but like FF seems to be able to get away with just about anything.
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Chairman Moo said:
The Catholic Church, whatever its terrible failings, did not “organise industrial scale child abuse”.
Such statements are completely irresponsible.
A small percentage of its priests were very, very sick – but the sickness exists in the general population. The number of Irish people who say they have been abused is shocking … and most of it is not by priests. As sickening and inexcusable as the priests’ actions are, their rate of abuse is still less than the average for adult males in the population.
As for the left-right division, the Catholic Church is well to the left on many things – having maintained a staunch critique of capitalism for a long time.
I myself am probably to the left of SF on many issues – but will never vote for them, despite the fact that my heart is with the original Sinn Fein of Griffiths and Dev …
We live in a corrupt, sick world. Our present capitalist system for example depends on organised child abuse in China and other third world sweat shops … Most of us, unless we are extremely scrupulous, are supporting that.
Many people are not thinking in a balanced way either about the evil that undoubtedly exists in the Church as well as secular capitalist society.
Finally, my thanks to Bangordub for this very fine effort which I am deeply grateful for. Have been following it silently a long time and deeply wish I could vote SF …
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sammymcnally said:
re. “Such statements are completely irresponsible. ”
They were given a privilege position in the (free) state – a privilege they should never have been afforded and they abused that and abused the children of the country from that privileged position – and there was then a systematic and deliberate cover-up by the church to protect abusers and keep them free from prosecution.
It is irresponsible to suggest that this is not something the church should hang its head in shame about and reasonable to suggest that they not be allowed near children.
This was not a few bad apples but rather an organisation that was a magnet for those in a society (with a ludicrous attitude to sexual matters) who sought refuge in celibacy – and no doubt many of the abusers were themselves victims.
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sammymcnally said:
BD,
I’m not sure the Nat turnout is lower than Unionist in this election?.
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bangordub said:
Too early to tell I’m afraid
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RJ said:
Yes indeed to last. Was advised by respected priest “green and orange fade away compared to defending life and defending marriage”. It was very hard to take for wife and self to take his advice – but he’s right. Would never vote SF, but we were very happy to vote Atwood until we learned where he stood …
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zig70 said:
Have to say the letter from Bishop Trainor was for the SDLPs benefit. They need to run a smarter line. The church are a bit behind but the old vote are important and it was a real chance to put a green line on SF.
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boondock said:
A bit of a cock up all round by nationalism. Just when I thought the sdlp vote couldn’t get any lower it drops another couple of percent. I think Balmoral sums up their stupidity, an area where they actually get enough votes for 2 seats they fail to balance it properly. Surprised at the loss of a SF seat to alliance in castle. I don’t really know what loyalists have to do in North Belfast to activate the nationalist voters. I mean between Kamp Kultur and all the housing scandals they still don’t seem motivated. Whats probably even more surprising is the uup who are a dead duck and have done absolutely nothing in the last 3 years but have somehow revived themselves. I think Attwood needs a miracle now for Monday lol
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Séamas Ó Sionnaigh (An Sionnach Fionn) said:
RTÉ national exit poll out. SF did well but should have done better, Greens have a pulse again, Others/Indos did very well indeed, Labour bad (could have been worse), FG ok but better was expected, FF will be pleased (within spitting distance of FG or neck-and-neck).
RTÉ exit poll, local election,
28%: Others/Independents
24%: Fine Gael
22%: Fianna Fáil
16%: Sinn Féin
7%: Labour Party
3%: Green Party
RTÉ exit poll, European election,
27%: Others/Independents
22%: Fine Gael
22%: Fianna Fáil
17%: Sinn Féin
6%: Green Party
6%: Labour Party
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boondock said:
SF well down on all the recent polls in the south – very strange
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carrickally said:
Perhaps the reminders of SF’s past engineered by the political elite of RoI have served to add some moral compass to Irish voters that doesn’t seem to be an issue for their Northern Irish cousins who still flock to the old colours – none moreso than in the perfectly choreographed voting of Blackmountain.
Could it be boondock that those who are disgusted by the former comrades’ actions but who feel the SDLP don’t offer a real alternative just stay at home in North Belfast? In the ballot box, I can’t bring myself to put pen to paper for PUP for that reason. Perhaps a conservative Catholic party would garner those non-voters? The TUV are the unionist equivalent, in a generally conservative community anyway and why they will have double figure councillors and Allister’s vote will be the same as the last time out.
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PaulG said:
I expect the real SF % will be a little higher than the exit polls. After all of the anti SF media propaganda spewed out in recent weeks, many SF voters will have blanked RTE counters and that will have skewed their figures.
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Séamas Ó Sionnaigh (An Sionnach Fionn) said:
I expected their percentage to be nearer the 20% but still up from previous polls and that in the face of collective media hostility and recent controversies. Could be voter shyness with the pollsters and the real percentage will be higher. Only the count will tell. Their Dublin vote is very impressive though. They have to an extent replaced FF and Lab in the capital. Smaller Left parties doing ok but the rivalries weighing against them at the ballot box. Taken together the non-Republican Left of SP/AAA/PBP/SWP/UL/WP rack up quite a respectable vote. However “socialist unity” is as far away as ever on that quarter.
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boondock said:
Lucid talk say their predictions so far are 96% correct! Off the top off my head they have Balmoral, black mountain and castle wrong and thats just from less than half the Belfast DEAs
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sammymcnally said:
Have to say BBC has been pretty disappointing. The website clearly behind UTV and the BBC telly coverage is just not analytical enough.
Very little critical comment on what results indicated and no projections based on early results. SF and the SDLP should have been pushed to explain disappointing results instead of being allowed (and particularly Alistair rambling on about specific candidates and boundary changes) to deflect with generalisations or in Gerry Kelly’s case talking about the South.
Nicholas Whyte and Mark Davenport have been very disappointing so far.
The BBC really needs to rediscover their edge.
ps I’m sure I saw the % turnout at council level somewhere yesterday – but cant see those figures today – any one know where they are?
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carrickally said:
I’ve found the utv (maybe swop the letters round?) website to be very good, except it doesn’t tell you quota or seat number info for each DEA.
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Fear Feirsteach said:
The UTV site is better than the BBC site but amatuerish compared to RTÉ coverage of STV elections. Want to know how the second count went? Forget it! What candidates have been eliminated? Forget it! What is the quota? Umm! How many seats are up for grabs? Umm!
I remember making the same observation at the last such election, whenever that was.
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carrickally said:
Belfast starting to look shaky for Nats; Collin and half of Oldpark, a couple at best in EB DEAs and maybe two to come in Court, tops.
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carrickally said:
BTW, delighted that there is no Alliance representation in my DEA but embarrassed that 439 1st pref votes gets you a £15,000pa job.
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bangordub said:
Preparing a roundup as we speak Carrickally 😉
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