In case anyone missed it, there happen to be two elections tomorrow.
The Euros of which more below and the local council elections.
For an unreconstructed number cruncher like myself this is manna from Heaven. I can’t wait for the counts to kick off on Friday morning !
Perhaps it would be useful to open a thread here recording results as they come in. Any and all info is welcome. For the record the results of the Europoll here are posted below, complete with full preferences.
I will have limited access to the blog on Friday but I look forward to the fun and games
Enjoy the day
"We in coming days may be" 
Both SF and the DUP have got a bit to worry about going forward.
For SF their battle with SDLP seems to still be on track but no growth in Nat voters and for the DUP it is the reverse – more Unionist voters but the (re-) emergence of the PUP, UUP and the TUV and the consolidation of Alliance who they tried to lundify.
Have the effect of demographics slowed to a crawl with the big insurgent anniversaries looming and with that threaten one of the pillars of SF policy?
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The overall Nationalist vote in the north-east seems disappointing given the (overly optimistic?) expectations. Too many folk staying at home? Talking to a few people over the last week in Belfast one got the general impression that a lot of voters believed that SF didn’t need their votes, that electoral growth was a given.
In this part of the country the commonest reaction I have heard to the elections is cynicism mixed with apathy. Most regular voters that I know didn’t bother to vote in this election (even the most politicised). And possibly will never vote again.
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carrickally,
What the feck is wrong with Alliance – how can a party who are demonstrably middle of the road and reasonable arouse such distaste from voices on both sides?
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I can remember a time in the mid-1980s when Unionist politicians refused to meet on councils they controlled; after the by-elections they caused after the diktat it was the only protest that elected representatives at the time could make (remember, no Stormont, direct rule in place, SF actively supporting/excusing daily murder instead of buying into the British system, which thankfully they now have done).
Alliance launched legal challenges to this and it reached the stage where councillors were going to lose homes, have charges brought against them to ensure future unemployability and so on. I had a relative who was in this position. Since that day, Alliance have been treated by my family with the utmost democratic hostility. In my mother’s street, they know to avoid her house and try to test the waters with her long-time neighbour; fortunately, she still hunts them, right up to this election.
They have always been the tool of the NIO in Northern Irish society, easily evidenced by their members’ proliferation for actual size across quangos, non-governmental agencies and public bodies. Remember when they redesignated themselves in the mid-noughties for the benefit of their masters?
David Ford’s power-grab around Justice and they way in which he treated football supporters as part of his Criminal Justice Bill (fortunately watered down by a combination of UUP tenacity and eventually DUP self-interest) roused my antipathy and then of course their actions in Belfast. Whilst I obviously do not believe that offices should be burnt or councillors threatened or attacked, I do believe that they should be made aware by residents of the areas they represent that they have been caught on as no friends of Unionism but only self-interest.
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re. “They have always been the tool of the NIO in Northern Irish society, easily evidenced by their members’ proliferation for actual size across quangos, non-governmental agencies and public bodies.”
Herein lies the problem for Unionism – how to behave like the British whilst trying to defeat those who are seeking to hollow out the Union from the inside (Northern Nats) and do a land grab from the outside (Southern Nats).
The strategic answer to that is surely to behave like the British and vote for the Alliance party – get on and enjoy the constitutional guarantee from the Britain.
But for a majority of Unionists the actual answer is to vote for unreconstructed fundamentalist right wing parties(DUP) and join organisations like the Orange Order who are regarded – I’m not suggesting all Orange Order members are bigots but how they are perceived – as religious bigots – in Ireland (outside of Unionist areas) and Britain.
The reason the Alliance are disproportionately represented on various quangos and have the Justice Ministry in Stormo is because they can be trusted to park the constitutional question and actually get on with the job.
The reason the NIO like Alliance so much – is that they behave in a way that the NIO expect would expect people in Britain to behave – i.e. like the British.
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“The reason the Alliance are disproportionately represented on various quangos and have the Justice Ministry in Stormo is because they can be trusted to park the constitutional question and actually get on with the job.”
Park is such a great word; the big question has been resolved, not parked. The little niggly bits, the bits that don’t affect the middle class of Alliance, are what count when the constitutional issue is resolved. That’s why SF have worked so hard on parades and give nothing but lipservice to a united Ireland. That’s also why so many on the unionist side see the erosion of Britishness in terms of all the small things.
On trust, I would say Alliance have the trust of the NIO for the very reason that they are a massively self-interested group of individuals rather than ideologues. They are the kind of people who fill governments across the neo-liberal world and they are easier to do business with than radicals or reactionaries (depending on who is using the language).
As FJH says, letsgetteronists. Without wishing to nibble at Goodwin’s law, I’d say they are lower level Judenrat members graduating to upper echelon Quislings. I doubt that it’s only loyalists who feel that about them, judging by either their poor votes in Nat areas or the fact that there are no candidates standing in Nat DEAs.
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carrickally,
Lets be honest here – the motivation and morality of all politicians is subject to suspicion and doubt – when we don’t agree with a party it a pretty easy argument of convenience to rollout.
Ulster is not as British as Surrey – a ‘foreign’ power has a say in Northern Ireland affairs as written into the Northern Ireland constitution – based on the GFA and voted on by ALL the people of Ireland. Alliance are simply reflecting that reality.
Alliance have behaved admirably whilst under physical and moral attack from Unionists whilst doing far more to portray a positive face for Unionism than those waving flags or those cheering them on the flagsters in the established parties.
The letsnotgetalong-istas (on both sides) should be careful what they wish for.
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Just read a very apt comment on twitter:
“Sinn Fein more interested in obliterating the SDLP than furthering the nationalist vote.”
Indeed.
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The cause of Robbo ten years ago, switching the party names to DUP and UUP. In a decade, will the 32SC or erigi be the Shinners’ TUV?
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At 10.30 this morning, I said this:
“Belfast starting to look shaky for Nats; Collin and half of Oldpark, a couple at best in EB DEAs and maybe two to come in Court, tops.”
If anyone wants to give me a pundit job, considering I was running on the info from the u.tv site alone without access to the count boards, I’m open to offers. 😉
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SDLP have had a good election, showing that unlike SF they can win in all council areas.
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SDLP have failed in this election, the loss of Derry is a disaster and they will not recover it. Big Al has to go.
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Rubbish.
It was Sinn Féin that failed with its vote share slipping in this as in several recent elections.
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SDLP supporter, your comments are welcome but please try to back them up with some kind of argument?
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Ok I have been away most of today and yesterday so I have not commented much but after a few glasses of wine Ill give you all my own completely useless thoughts. Initially as the results came in I thought this was a disastrous election for nationalists but as we near the end of the results marathon I would downgrade/upgrade the assessment to slightly disappointing. If we look at Nationalism in general SDLP/SF got 37.7% of the vote which is low but considering there were so many independents this year along with a number of small left/republican/socialist parties when we tally them all up we get to the magic 42% which nationalism seems to have been stuck at for the last 15 years or so. In terms of seats and the 2011 vote I would say SF are about 10 short of where they should be whilst SDLP seem to be about the same it looks like they have got a better return of seats/vote this time. It certainly doesnt get the leadership of the hook though because after the Margaret Ritchie fiasco I thought the only way was up but no I am wrong. This is a big warning to the SDLP to get their shit together or they will continue to leak votes to the various independents or socialists or to the Green and Alliance parties. McDonnell needs to act or feck off. In my own DEA their amateurish/stupid behaviour was exemplified by the desperate balancing in Balmoral where Hanna polls 1500 and Cartwright only 575. Through the transfers Cartwright gained an extra 400 odd votes before elimination. If they both polled around 1000-1100 then they would have both got in contrast that to SF in Black mountain or Colin who can get 5 or 6 candidates within a few hundred of each other the only gaff being Castle which cost them, that and the SDLP voters switching to Alliance in large numbers. 4 seats was a possibility so 2 is really very disappointing there. Despite these own goals in Belfast Nationalists still got 27 seats which was pretty much what was expected. The SF staff in the shortstrand need a pat on the back as the people there certainly seemed to understand what was needed hence the embarrassing low total for the SDLP. Elsewhere (obviously boundary changes make it difficult to compare to 2011) the DUP have lost about 15 seats, UUP have gained about 10, Alliance about the same and the others up about 10-15. To sum up no major changes but I really expected the SDLP to slightly improve and the uup to continue to disintegrate and yet it has happened the other way. Tomorrow should be interesting but my initial optimism for Attwood has all but gone he would need about 18% first preferences to have a chance an achievable amount 2 days ago before polling but now.
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Fair analysis boondock. Keep drinking that wine, in vino veritas!
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Sure will. One other point STV seems to work well for Unionism. The seats/vote ratio is always better for the UUP and DUP than for SF and SDLP. Some would say it is the boundaries others would say SF and SDLP transfer poorly who knows for sure but it I would say it is a clear indicator that having more parties rather than shredding the vote contrary to claims actually seems to help the vote so maybe nationalism needs FF and FG to join the party asap
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Great analysis Boondock,
Spot on
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Have SF sacrificed a more equitable council makeup with a view to wins every 5 years and continue the narrative of unionsits being squeezed? Long war view. The wins Im talknig about are Belfast in 5 Armagh in 10 and Causeway in 15. There would be likely less movement in a 5 : 5 split with Belfast nuetral. Have they miscalculated that this loss of perceived momentum may turn off eastern nationalists?
Aside from that, SF have resourced a successful and 2 much bigger campaigns south at the same time as just dropping 0.7%. Given the unknowns in the council redraw it would be argued that now was not the time to push in both jurisdictions equally.
How much money will SFs soutern success feed into their coffers in time for the next run, by when they will have learned where they need to improve.
Or am I seeing what I want to see?
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Excellent analysis, Boondock.
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Euros down Mexico way: http://www.irishtimes.com/
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