This analysis of the new Belfast council will cover the South Belfast DEA’s of Botanic and Balmoral. The following shows the change in the turnout for the nationalist and unionist parties comparing the 2005 and 2011 district council elections.
The election turnout for the 2005 and 2011 elections indicate:
#1 Turnout declined between the 2005 and 2011 elections.
#2 Nationalist turnout declined at a greater rate (13%) than unionist turnout (6%) in the Balmoral DEA.
#3 Nationalist turnout is higher than unionist turnout.
#4 Turnout is very low in the Lagan Bank DEA, mainly due to the large number of students. Most students, if they vote, vote in their home districts. This DEA also has a large number of ethnic nationals who vote at a lower rate than the native population. These factors, to a lesser extent, account for the low turnout in the Balmoral DEA.
The change in the party vote between 2005 and 2011 is as follows:
There was a substantial decline in the SDLP vote in Balmoral. Approximately half these SDLP voters stayed home and the other half defected to SF, Alliance and Green. There was also a large decline in the UUP and DUP vote in Balmoral. Some of these voters defected to Alliance and Green. The remainder of the decline is due to a declining unionist electorate and voters who stayed home. In Lagan Bank, the SF, SDLP, UUP and DUP vote declined. Half of decline was due to voters who defected to the Alliance and Green candidates and the other half was due to voters who stayed home.
The new DEA’s have changed. The Balmoral DEA added the new Belvoir ward, which consists of the Minnowburn ward and sections of the Drumbo, Beechill, Newtownbreda and Rosetta wards. The Blackstaff and Windsor wards were removed from Balmoral and transferred to the Botanic DEA (previously named Lagan Bank). The Rosetta ward was removed from Botanic and transferred to Lisnasharragh DEA.
The average ward for Belfast is 3535. The total electorate and average ward electorate for each DEA is.
Balmoral 17119 (3424)
Botanic 19138 (3838)
The demographics and predicted election results are based on the 2011 turnout.
The removal of the nationalist Rosetta ward and the addition of the overwhelmingly protestant Blackstaff ward in the Botanic DEA would change the results in 2014. The DEA is 5% more Protestant and 6% less Catholic and this would result in a gain for the UUP and a loss for the SDLP. Balmoral is losing 1 seat and that loss would come from the SDLP. While it is likely this is what the results will be it is possible that the SDLP could regain these seats in Balmoral and Botanic. The demographics of the new Balmoral are identical to those of the old Balmoral. In the 2011 election the party vote was:
There has been no change in the voting age population since 2001 but the number of voters has declined by over 3600 in 10 years. This would be due to voter apathy. The overall Alliance and Green vote has increase by 360 due to defection from UUP and SDLP voters. The overall nationalist vote has decreased by 950 of which perhaps 150 defected to Alliance-Green and 800 due to voter apathy. However, there has been a massive decline in the total unionist vote, from 6517 in 2011 to 3449 in 2011. That is a decline of 3068 votes. Indeed, the unionist vote of 3449 in 2011 was only 2/3 of the unionist vote of 5121 in 2005. While perhaps 200 of that decline is due to defections to Alliance and Green most would be due to demographic decline and voter apathy. How much of that decline is due to demographic changes will determine the results in 2014. The trend suggests another 800 vote decline in 2014 but it is unlikely to be that high since the majority of that decline may be due to apathy, which is unlikely to worsen in 2014. If there is another 400 vote decline due to demographic changes and the SDLP increases nationalist turnout by 100 votes, then there would be a 2nd SDLP seat here at the expense of the UUP. Any combination of declining unionist vote and increasing nationalist turnout that equals 500 votes would result in a 2nd SDLP seat.
The situation in Botanic is similar. With the new boundaries the expected vote would be, based on the 2011 election.
The UUP candidate would be elected on DUP and Green transfers. However, between 2005 and 2011, the unionist vote in Lagan Bank declined by over 1000 while the nationalist vote declined by less than 800. Furthermore, Blackstaff and Windsor were removed from Balmoral and some of that massive decline in the unionist vote in Balmoral occurred in those 2 wards. SF and Alliance are sitting on a quota exactly so will have little surplus to transfer. The Green vote transferred 75% SDLP and 25% UUP in the 2011 election. If the unionist vote declines by another 200 due to demographic changes and the SDLP increases their vote by another 400 votes they would win a 2nd seat here. There are also over 6,000 ethnic nationals of voting age in this constituency, of which 2,500 were on the December 2013 electoral register. If the SDLP were to target those voters and increase their vote total by another 400 votes, they would win a 2nd seat.
"We in coming days may be" 
Intestesting to see who the NI21 candidates transfer to. Will they take much votes of Alliance, UUP and the SDLP?
LikeLike
Reckon SDLP will lose a seat in each. Balmoral could go anyway with SDLP, DUP, Alliance, all ticket shredding with 2 candidates when none are likely to win 2. Alliance also running two new candidates – Will be interesting to see if Tina can nick someones seat.
LikeLike
Alliance ground work could yield 2 seats in Botanic
LikeLike
Would love to know how you arrive at Balmoral at 42.8% Catholic and 50.2% Protestant. The existing Balmoral was ~43% cath. And 44% protestant. It lost a 40/40 ward with a large population (Windsor) and the loyalist black staff ward. It replaced it with the loyalist minnow burn which has a small population, a fifth of the nationalist rosetta ward and the mixed bits in between. How on earth do protestants end up with a majority here? Out of the four remaining old Balmoral wards three have cath majorities/pluralities (Malone, Musgrave, Finaghy) and yet somehow the addition of the new part overturns that? ? I think this is wrong.
LikeLike
The botanic area will end up with 1 for each party due to the new areas moving in. However it should be noted a few nationalist majority output areas moving into the new area. They include: the eastern most section of the old falls ward so will be overwhelmingly nationalist and a couple from ravenhill which would also be mainly nationalist. Probably not enough to change any results here though
LikeLike
Charlie,
There was also a large section of Beechill ward (1400 people only 120 Catholic) added along with Minnowburn. The section of Beechill added is only 8% Catholic. The census figures are:
Total Catholic Protestant Other None
Upper Malone 4841 1422 2907 122 390
Finaghy 4555 2240 1942 120 253
Musgrave 4927 2984 1623 83 237
Malone (part) 4864 3047 1440 114 263
Rosetta (part) 930 544 300 14 72
Minnowburn 2226 176 1848 39 163
Beechill (part) 1415 120 1118 16 161
Newtownbreda (part)300 120 140 5 35
Drumbo (part) 552 122 359 9 62
Total 24610 10775 11677 522 1636
Voting Age 19435 8325 9750 400 960
Even though Blackstaff was removed, the added areas of Minnowburn and Beechill have almost the same population as Blackstaff ( 3998 people of which 600 Catholic). There are only 300 Catholics in the areas of Minnowburn and Beechill added but 600 in the Blackstaff ward which was removed. The Catholic population age profile is also much younger and the Protestant age profile older so even though the Protestant population is only 47.4% the voting age population is over 50%.
LikeLike
I wasn’t aware that only part of Malone moved in to this area, but I just checked it. I also saw the area of Beechill moved in. Didn’t realise so many people lived in that space and as was so segregated. Ok Faha I bow to your superior knowledge. I would however leave out the voting age stats. Its three years and any voting age biased is probably countered by changing demographics.
LikeLike
Charlie,
My statistics are not perfect. The census OA’s in Drumbo, Newtownbreda and Beechill do not conform exactly to the new boundaries between Belfast and Lisburn-Castlereagh. So there may be an extra 300 people included in Balmoral that are actually in Lisburn-Castlereagh and these would have few Catholics. Also, the census underestimated the Catholic population and as you noted there would be significant demographic changes since 2011. The 2 voting blocs are probably equal in 2014.
LikeLike
Faha,
Can we summarise as a probable one seat loss for Nats in BS?
LikeLike
It would be 2 seats lost, 1 SDLP in Balmoral and 1 SDLP in Botanic.
LikeLike
Doubt if SDLP will lose seats – they are a better political party than SF and riding high in recent Lucid Talk polls.
LikeLike
One will be recouped in Lisnasharragh where Rosetta’s going. It and mixed Ravenhill should see a Nationalist quota for the SDLP.
LikeLike
I cannot understand why the SDLP are running a landlord of such prominence as Decky O’Boyle in this area, would that not be a turn off for the locals or am I unaware of something?
LikeLike
Faha, I appreciate there is one more bit of Belfast to go but it seems clear that those optimists( and I’m including myself this time in the Nat optimists) are going to be disappointed that Nat control of Belfast council will be further away after this reorganisation/election.(Nat currently 2 short of majority – 24 of 51).
When you have done the last bit can you do a summary of the overall position (please)?
The Euro election seems to me to be far less important – even if the Unionist vote fractures badly and the SDLP sneak in so what ? Treasonous as it may sound to some – I find myself ( in these less important elections) hoping that Alliance get the 3rd seat. That would send a message (as sent last time in East Belfast) from sensible Unionists that they will not tolerate the bullying of political parties.
LikeLike
Sammy, You an optimist? Lol 😉
I agree with you (for once) that an overall summary of the Belfast Council is required and will discuss with Faha. I’m also going to do a short blog linking to all the articles and the poll we ran on the Euro elections for easy reference.
I trust you (and all the other anoraks including myself) have ordered in industrial amounts of popcorn and a bottle of whatever you’re having yourself for the counts?
May I add, I’d be very interested in hearing Carrickally’s thoughts on how the inter-Unionist rivallry may play out?
LikeLike
BD,
I suspected my short visit into optimist territory might not go too well.
LikeLike
BD, inter-unionist rivalry is a strange beast; at macro level you have a gutting session, then it falls to the gutters to ask the electorate to vote for them first, followed by the guttees in whatever order of preference they want.
And let’s face it, unionists are very good at voting right down the ballot paper; Gerry won’t even publicly countenance asking people to give a preference to SDLP (or eirigi).
As it stands, the splitting of the unionist vote doesn’t overly matter. Sure one or two seats are lost but the major issue is that unionists, who theoretically have such a wide range of parties to vote for do have a low turnout in urban areas. It would seem illogical that, with so many choices ranging from TUV down (or up?) to NI21, there isn’t something for everyone. But then, that forgets completely that unionists are also individualists. Some buggers I know wouldn’t even vote for themselves if they stood!
LikeLike
carrickally,
What is your feeling on the Alliance or the SDLP getting the 3rd seat in the Euros? I’m not sure it would be that significant even if the SDLP won it if it was purely down to transfers not working for ‘Unionism’- which as you indicate they are generally good at – if it was seen as indicative of ‘worsenning’ demographics then that would be a cause for Unionist concern?
LikeLike
A number of articles about the new Lucidtalk poll regarding BCC over on the Belfast Telegraph site. It has SF on 20, DUP 17, Alliance 9, SDLP 8, UUP 4, NI21 1 and PUP 1 (not far off FAHA and Irish obserever).
I am a bit confused though as it has Nationalists on 28 and maybe even potentially 30 if they win all their possibles yet it then sums up by claiming Nationalist will be 4-6 seats short of a majority ????
LikeLike
boondock,
we will have to wait to see Faha’s final figures suggest but if Nats get to 28 out 60 – they will be 3 short – 1 more short than currently. Some commentators are putting Nats on 27 which would leave them 4 short – but yes, hard to know what the BT is on about – stretching that out to 6.
LikeLike
Boondock,
They have the SDLP winning 2 in Botanic which, while not out of the question, seems unlikely as only just got their 2nd seat last time of green and socialist transfers and this time loses rosetta and gains Windsor and Blackstaff. That said, it must be remembered, that for the South Belfast DEAs in the last election the unionist share finished almost 10 points lower than the protestant share of the electorate. This is almost virtually unique as in most areas unionists are usually at least equal if not punching above their share (and in Dungannon and Fermanagh massively punch above their weight). I can’t figure it out, but whatever makes the electorate so especially apathetic here could be at work again and have been factored into the BelTel’s calculations. It should also be noted that (h/t to Faha for some of this) the fringe areas coming into botanic are from mainly or overwhelmingly nationalist areas even if it’s only 4 or 5 output areas. My later points will explain why its unlucky that this is factored in….
They have the UUP and SDLP on 1 seat apiece in Castle. I think it’s now more likely than not that the SDLP will nick the UUP seat here. It also has SF not holding a seat in the titanic DEA although acknowledged it is a possibility. I would say it too, is more likely. The demographics have shiftes too dramatically in the surrounding wards even if ravenhill is lost. Ravenhill is probably more sdlp than sf anyway and they transferred badly to SF here last time and it didn’t matter.Even I O’Donnaghaile is subsub quota there were so many unionists elected below him that it’ll take quite an upheaval to remove that cushion. Remember SF and Alliance didn’t sneak too seats as there were approximately 3 quotas of non unionist votes in total last time. So while it may be tighter, he has all of his short strand base intact.
The two added to the botanic suggestion make 30 nationalist seats. The only realistic (outside) gain beyond that is probably Old park.
Regarding the commentary itself. It suggests that castle and old park are the same areas and predict the same seats. As we know they are not and is a big reason why we may see castle yielding another nationalist seat. Also, quite a lot of the literal commentary seems oddly similar to that of “Irish observer” over on the ‘UK vote talk’ forum (including his predictions) . Either its the same guy or the BT/Lucid talk are lazily pawning off some his commentary as their own.
LikeLike
charlie,
if Nats hit 30 or above (and pessimism has now gained the upper hand with me and I think this unlikely ) then I think Unionists might well be re-engaging with the Haas proposals fairly sharpish – Belfast results will be much more significant than the Europe results.
European seat is a bit of nice to have and for slagging of your rivals.
LikeLike
I have Faha’s final figures and will be publishing tomorrow along with the East Belfast Analysis.
Great discussion going on here, keep the faith Sammy
LikeLike
Sammy,
I don’t think they’ll hit 30 personally, but if they did achieve that and the DUP get a pasting from Allister, UUP et. al. who would dish out the lundifacation punishment for ‘selling out Belfast’ then there may be room to ditch the refrom yet while they are still in ‘shadow form’
LikeLike
re.
“may be room to ditch the refrom yet while they are still in ‘shadow form’
Yes that’s my thinking too –
LikeLike
Do you reckon there’ll be a rerun of the UWC strike or something?
LikeLike
I reckon that the DUP may pull the plug on Council reform if Nats get to 30 seats and they are under severe pressure for (as Charlie puts it) ‘selling out Belfast’ .
LikeLike
Get real Sammy. How are they going to do this? Answers on a postcard please.
LikeLike
The local government bill was passed on the 8th of April.it should become law before the election.Even if there is a Nationalist majority in Belfast it will be too late for Unionists to pull the plug.
LikeLike
good
LikeLike
”What is your feeling on the Alliance or the SDLP getting the 3rd seat in the Euros?”
Either way it is one more nationalist seat!
LikeLike
I would say it’s highly unlikely that the UUP won’t get the third seat; even those protesting against the DUP/SF mockery at Stormont and voting TUV will still be more likely to transfer to Nicholson rather than just putting a 1 beside Allister.
However, it’ll be a close run thing. I’d say that when Lo drops out, most of her transfers will make their way to UUP because the other smaller possibles will have bowed out by that stage. SDLP will have probably been ahead of UUP on first preferences but that, coupled with the next elimination of Allister will see them through.
Mind you, a UUP failure here will choke the party economically.
LikeLike
The Bel Tel poll/survey has Lo going out on the 6th count and her 9% being split 4.5% to SDLP, 2.8% UUP, 0.9% TUV and 0.5% DUP. Its only when big JIm gets eliminated that both Unionist candidates finally claim the seats below quota
http://www.belfasttelegraph.co.uk/incoming/article30228770.ece/cfb42/binary/euro_graphic.jpg
LikeLike