A guest post by Faha
(This is a follow on from Faha’s previous post Here– BD)
I did a post in March on the effect of immigration on the 2011 census figures for Northern Ireland. At that time I estimated that 50% to 55% of the foreign nationals 
that had immigrated to Northern Ireland were Catholic. Based on that estimate it appeared that the Catholic immigrants would have contributed little to the PERCENTAGE increase of the Catholic population but would have contributed approximately HALF ( 40,000 ) to the 80,000 increase in the Catholic population. In May the census office released the file, DC2242NI-Country of Birth by Religion or Religion Brought in, which provides full detail of the religion background of the 80,760 people who were born outside of the UK or Ireland.
What were the results?
Total Catholic Protestant&OtherChristian Other None
80,760 42,874 18,201 6,641 13,044
53.1% 22.5% 8.2% 16.2%
The Catholic percentage is in the 50% to 55% range that I expected but the Protestant percentage is much higher than I expected. The Other group is much lower than expected and the None higher than expected.
Europeans account for 8,271 of the Protestant immigrants (almost half all Protestant immigrants ) and other religion files indicate that 1/3 are Eastern Orthodox. Half ( 2,782 ) of all African immigrants are Protestant and there are 2,963 are from Asia. The remaining 4,000+ are from Latin America, North America and Australia-New Zealand. There were some other unexpected findings. The number of Catholics and Protestants from South America are equal and the numbers are equal for the USA, Canada and Australia. Of those born in India 1/3 are Catholic. 70% of Chinese have no religion.
These numbers do not include the children of immigrants born in Northern Ireland. Birth statistics and school information for children who speak a foreign language indicate there are approximately 18,000 children of immigrants. Since the Eastern European immigrants did not begin arriving until 2004, those immigrant children born prior to 2005 (much lower numbers than currently) were predominantly of Chinese, Indian, Muslim and African origin. The Catholic percentage among all the children of immigrants would be less than 50% but those born in the 2 years since the census would definitely be above 50%. In the 2011 census Catholic immigrants (including their children) are probably 50% of the immigrant population. The 42,874 foreign born Catholic immigrants plus their Northern Ireland born children would be approximately 50,000. Approximately 5,000 were already present in the 2001 census so 45,000 would be new to the 2011 census .
While most have concentrated on the Catholic numbers the Protestant numbers are also interesting. There are 18,200 Protestants among the foreign born. There would also be approximately 4,000 children of those immigrants for a total of 22,000. Now perhaps 2,000 of those were present in the 2001 census so 20,000 would be new to the 2011 census.
With these figures on the ethnic population it is possible to give a breakdown of the entire 1,811,000 people in Northern Ireland. In my September 21st post on the 2011 school census, the school census indicated a minimum undercount of the entire Catholic population of over 20,000 and I will use those estimates. While the census definition religion of Catholic is straightforward the census definition of Protestant is more complicated. The definition is actually “Protestant and Other Christian and Christian related”. Included in this category are 435 who gave their religion as “mixed Catholic-Protestant”, over 2,000 Eastern Orthodox, over 2,000 Non-denominational or Independent, and 14,630 as “Christian”. The mixed Catholic-Protestant and Eastern Orthodox are clearly not Protestant and I include them with “Other”. I assume the Non-denominational and Independent are of Protestant background. The 14,630 “Christian” increased from only 8,000 in the 2001 census so it may be that this group is including more children of mixed marriages and Protestants and Catholics who do not belong to any church but still consider themselves Christian. The estimated numbers are:
Native Protestant 848,000 46.8%
Ethnic Protestant 22,000 1.2%
Native Catholic 787,000 43.5%
Ethnic Catholic 50,000 2.8%
Native Other/None 77,000 4.3%
Ethnic Other/None 27,000 1.5%
There was a significant emigration of the native Catholic and Protestant between 2001 and 2011, though less than between 1991 and 2001. The total Protestant population in the 2001 census was 895,000. There was a slight undercount of the Catholic population in the 2001 census, as indicated in the 2001 school census, but this was much less than 2011, approximately 5,000 with a corresponding over count of the Protestant population by 3,000 and the None group by 2,000. After subtracting that 3,000 from the Protestant total and removing the Protestant ethnic nationals and others that are not actually Protestant (Eastern Orthodox, etc.) the native Protestant population in 2001 was approximately 888,000. The native Protestant population declined by 40,000 between 2001 and 2011. The census office estimated that the number of deaths exceeded the number of births by 5,000 so the remaining 35,000 decrease would be due to emigration. However, the number of British soldiers and dependents stationed in Northern Ireland decreased from 17,000 in 2001 to only 4,000 in 2011 and since they are included in the census this influences the emigration numbers. Approximately 10,000 of those soldiers who left would have been Protestant, 1,000 Catholic and 2,000 None. The actual emigration of the native Protestant population would have been only 25,000.
The actual Catholic population in the 2001 census would have been 742,000 but excluding the estimated 5,000 ethnic nationals the native Catholic population would have been 737,000. The census office estimated that the Catholic population had an excess of births over deaths of 72,000. Adjusting for the Catholic children of ethnic nationals who were born during that 10 year interval (and the 1,000 Catholic British soldiers who left) would indicate that the native Catholic population should have increased by 65,000. Since it only increased by 50,000 there was a net emigration of 15,000 from the native Catholic population. This is 10,000 less than the 25,000 Protestant numbers. This is probably due to the excess number of Protestant university students who attend school outside Northern Ireland and who do not return. This has been well documented. The University religion figures for Northern Ireland show more Catholics and fewer Protestants than would be expected from the religion numbers for those in secondary school.
The arrival of ethnic Catholic immigrants influences the overall figures since the Catholic population is increasing faster than it would otherwise. The arrival of Protestant ethnic immigrants is masking the overall decline of the native Protestant population. It is also clear that native Catholics and Protestants together are 90% of the population. The other 10% are ethnic immigrants and native people with no religion or Other religious background. Since native Catholics and Protestants are both in a minority the political balance of power will be determined by this 10% of the population in future elections.
Is it possible to predict the results of a future census?
Future predictions are always fraught with uncertainties. Among these would be changes in the birth rate and death rate, immigration and emigration. The death rate has not changed significantly for many years at 14,500 per year. The parents of almost all the children who will be born in the next 20 years are already present in the 2011 census so I would not go out any further than the 2031 census. If the birth rate remains at approximately 25,500 per year there would be 510,000 children born in the next 20 years. The religious breakdown would be approximately:
Catholic 260,000
Protestant 170,000
Other 10,000
None 70,000
If the death rate remains constant for the next 20 years the figures would be:
Catholic 100,000
Protestant 180,000
Other/None 10,000
If current birth and death rates continue the natural increase (or decrease) would be:
Total Population
Catholic 160,000 1,000,000
Protestant -10,000 860,000
Other/None 60,000 165,000
If native emigration continues at the same extent as the time period between 2001 and 2011 (15,000 Catholic and 25,000 Protestant per decade ) the figures would be:
Catholic 970,000 50.0%
Protestant 810,000 41.8%
Other/None 160,000 8.2%
The Catholic population will be half the population. The Protestant population will have plummeted from over 53% in 2001 to only 41.8%. The Other/None group would hold the balance of power in any elections although these people are very diverse and it would be difficult to predict their voting patterns at this time.
The final unknown factor, and the least predictable, is the extent of immigration in the next 20 years. Since 2009, the number of ethnic nationals coming to Northern Ireland has decreased dramatically compared to earlier years and the net immigration is only 5,000 per year. The source of immigrants has also changed with few from Africa or Asia and 85% are of European origin (mainly Eastern European). I estimate that 70% of all recent immigrants are Catholic. Immigration is very dependent on the state of the economy and it is not possible to predict future economic growth in Northern Ireland. If net immigration of ethnic nationals remains at the current low levels over the next 20 years I would estimate the following (including future children born to these immigrants).
Catholic 90,000
Protestant 10,000
Other/None 25,000
If the current low levels of ethnic national immigration continues for another 20 years the final numbers in 2031 would be:
Catholic 1,060,000 51.3%
Protestant 820,000 39.7%
Other/None 185,000 9.0%
Total 2,065,000
The Catholic population would have a narrow majority. However, the native Catholic population would only be 43.5%. The Protestant population would be just under 40% but the native Protestant population would only be 38%. The Other/None group (both native and ethnic immigrants) and ethnic Catholics and Protestants will be 17.5%.
"We in coming days may be" 
Thanks BangorDub – excellent work there.
Horseman would be very proud of you.
On “politics.ie”, I have made the point that unionists will be the minority by 2020 – and could well dip below the 40% figure by 2030…….your research supports this.
It ‘s all good.
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Munsterman, you’ve fallen into the fatal trap of equating unionists with Protestants only. While the vast (overwhelming?) majority of Protestants are unionist, there is a substantial minority of Roman Catholics who are willing to go along with the status quo and are de facto unionists.
Hence the attempts of Robbo over the last two years for outreach, which have been somewhat thwarted by the clumsiness of the flag protests and other factors such as the return to conflict by militant republicanism.
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Munsterman,
The credit is with Faha, in fairness,
Carickally,
Ah yes, the famed Unicorns. I’m still waiting to meet one or, more importantly, see any evidence of them voting for Unionist parties.
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carrickally……..” there is a substantial minority of Catholics who are willing to go along with the status quo……” – UNTIL they are in the driving seat (the majority) which will be an irreversible and fundamental game-changer.
==> Nationalists know very well at the moment – even if 100% of them voted for a
Re-United Ireland – they would lose a Border Poll.
If there were Nationalists out in the street protesting at the removal of the Union flag from City Hall and demanding that it be flown 24/7/365, then I would say you might have a point.
By the way, what is a ROMAN Catholic…..as distinct to a Catholic……..or a MUNSTER Catholic ?
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Bangordub,
excellent detailed analysis.
carrickally stated
re. “there is a substantial minority of Roman Catholics who are willing to go along with the status quo and are de facto unionists.”
to which you replied.
“Ah yes, the famed Unicorns. I’m still waiting to meet one or, more importantly, see any evidence of them voting for Unionist parties.”
The Unionist arguement (which is valid in my opinion) is that a swathe of ‘Nationalists’ would vote for the union if there was a border poll (or perhaps not vote at all )- not necessarily vote for a Unionist party in an election.
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Personally I suspect that a fair number of Nationalists would sit out a referendum if they genuinely believed that they would be worse off in the event of reunification. The problem is defining “worse off”.
Given that young Nationalists seem increasingly frustrated by the political and social conditions in the north-east of the country which stem from systemic sectarianism and the unwillingness of Unionist leaders to accept communal parity it might well be that most Nationalists would vote for a reunited Ireland because it is sold to them as a mechanism for social, political and cultural betterment which would financial concerns into last place.
People seem to be looking to Scotland and thinking in terms of the debate there which is largely turning on financial issues. This is then being misapplied to the Irish situation.
If SF and the SDLP and others sold a pro-unification vote on the basis raising the socio-economic and cultural standing of Nationalists while opening further opportunities for personal advancement or gain in a de-sectarianised society that might well serve as an incentive to get the majority of Nationalists out to vote yes. Equally in could attract some Pro-Union but culturally Catholic voters.
On the other hand the growing apathy amongst Unionist voters or more accurately Pro-Union non-voters might well lead many to accept a fait accompli and simply stay at home come referendum day.
Appealing to the better angels of human nature is all well and good but it is self-interest that gets the votes.
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The Scottish debate is instructive in this regard. The entire pro-union argument is constructed around economic insecurity. In essence it is “You’ll be broke if you break away”.
From an Irish perspective I can assure Scottish readers that nothing could be further from the truth.
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BD,
re. “From an Irish perspective I can assure Scottish readers that nothing could be further from the truth.”
Arguements about what ‘broke’ means aside – Ireland is still in deep, deep economic trouble – and is no longer user by Scot Nats as an arguement/example for independence – and have been taunted by (Scot) Unionists about having used Ireland as such.
An Sionnach,
The difficulty in trying to move away from the economic arguement (which I agree with) is as you say “but it is self-interest that gets the votes.” and largely economic self-interest. Alex Maskey simply couldnt deal with being asked during a debate on a UI whether Nats would be prepared to give up the NHS and made a holy show of himself debating with Arlene Foster. It wasnt the boul Alex’s fault – just that SF havent thought through the demands for a referendum.
A few weeks back I heard (truthfully but absurdly) a SF spokesman on RTE (the late debate) telling the nation that there was better Health provision north of the border. This is the problem for those of us in favour of a UI – the reality is that the South MAY NEVER be wealthier that Britain and MAY NEVER able to win the economic arguement.
The arguement has got to be about more than money – but it is not clear how and if the an alternative arguement can be won.
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Sammy,
To continue an old argument,
Ireland will exit the IMF in two weeks, plus the following:
http://www.irishtimes.com/business/economy/ireland/rate-of-employment-growth-accelerates-in-third-quarter-1.1608433
http://www.irishtimes.com/business/economy/unemployment-rate-falls-to-12-8-lowest-since-2009-1.1607939
http://www.irishtimes.com/news/consumer/dublin-house-prices-up-15-in-past-year-but-growth-slower-in-rest-of-country-1.1609559
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BD,
Like you I eagerly follow the good news – but Ireland remains in a very dangerous place economically – even with the safety valve of emigration. The reason Scot nats are not pointing to Ireland (as they used to) is because it is (currently) a VERY BAD (economic) example to quote and they would be ridiculed for doing so. Thems the facts – upalatable but facts.
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Sammy I remember Maskey on the debate and he was poor but Im sorry to say Arlene was no better her pitch included a few meaningless soundbites and her argument for was almost all based on the block grant a figure which is shaky when we look at how the big companies pay their tax in the UK, nevermind the fact it could be stopped at any moment if London wishes.
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boondock,
In any debate those taking part have to deal not only with their own strengths and weaknessess and those of their opponents but also the strength and weaknesses of their own arguement. What was clear before that programme and no fault of the boul Alex( who is generally pretty good) is that SF’s arguement on wanting a referendum were not thought through properly. Alex had to go into battle with Arlene armed with the ill-thought out SF position and took a pasting.
Trying to pretend ‘all is good’ as suggested below will not wash except with those already in the bag (idelogically) and the difficult trick for SF is to not just concentrate on economics – an economic beauty contest with Britian MAY be something we won’t win for some considerable time.
What we dont know is the % of Nats (Northern and Southern) who put economics before nationhood, when and if Ireland(Southern Territoties) becomes richer than Britain then that Fenian Uncle Tom problem will become a Prod Uncle Tom problem. In the meantime SF need to give the matter some serious thought rather than trottingo ut some ideological soundbites.
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If It is true that more Protestants emigrate than Catholics this is significant.
Another point is alot of Catholics move to Dublin for jobs but keep their vote ‘up the road’
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But is that true? Catholic areas tend to be more economically depressed – and have a younger, more mobile workforce. Not too many jobs in Dublin this last few years.
Emigration is the real story – but it doesn’t show up (explicitly) in census returns
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If Catholics west of the Bann move to Belfast or Dublin its not really emigration.
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If they move to Australia, NZ, Britain, the US, Canada, Europe does it count as emigration? How is it places with high-birth rates are recording low population rises? I’m thinking of towns like Keady, Co. Armagh.
It’s all very well obsessing over what religion Lithuanians are but it misses the point somewhat.
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Are you sure about the emigration figures. I’m only basing this on anecdotal evidence but I would have thought that emigration from the rural catholic community to Australia, England, Canada etc has been very high in the last 5 years. I have also always thought that the likes of Australia is a more attractive proposition for young catholics because they have got GAA clubs, Irish pubs etc where they can meet other young Irish people and it gives them a sense of home, and a sense of belonging even when abroad. What do young Protestants have? Nothing.
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Any analysis of emigration and immigration is very complicated. The census office does have some very hard and accurate statistics to base their numbers on. During the time frame of 1969 until the GFA in 1998 they recorded a net emigration of over 180,000. Beginning in 2000, a net influx began. This occurred even before the EU nationals began arriving. Some who had emigrated during the Troubles began to return. They definitely know that, between 2001 and 2011, there were 233,000 births and 145,000 deaths in Northern Ireland so the natural increase of the population would be 88,000. It actually increased by 126,000 so there was a net influx of 38,000 people into Northern Ireland. The foreign born were 81,000 in 2011 but only 18,000 in 2001 so there was a net influx of 63,000 foreign nationals. Since there was only a net influx of 38,000 this means that 25,000 natives emigrated during that time. 13,000 of those were British soldiers so the actual net emigration of natives was only 12,000. Now I stated that 25,000 Protestants and 15,000 Catholics emigrated but the census office only records 12,000 and their number is accurate. Why the discrepancy ? Those additional 28,000 did not actually leave the country, they “emigrated” to a different census category. The native “None” religion group increased by 28,000 during that time. This is mainly due to the fact the number of children being raised in no religion has increased dramatically while the elderly “None” group that is dying off is very small. Many children of mixed marriages are being raised in no religion and this is occurring even in families where both parents are Catholic or Protestant. The native Protestant population declined by 40,000 between 2001 and 2011. The loss was :
5,000 deaths exceeding births
10,000 British soldiers who left
15,000 “lost” to the “None” group
10,000 net emigration
The same is true for the Catholic population. Net emigration was probably only 2,000, with the remainder (13,000 ) of my estimate “lost” to the “None” group. The 2001 to 2011 time period is really 2 separate periods when it comes to emigration and immigration. The 71/2 period from the April 2001 census until the financial-economic crisis of October 2008 had a net influx of Catholics who returned after leaving during the Troubles. However, this net influx was totally wiped out by the emigration that occurred from October 2008 to the census in March 2011. There would have been a similar trend for Protestants but the net emigration for the decade was higher than Catholics because of the large number of Protestant university students who study outside of Northern Ireland and never return. Since the 2011 census, the census office is recording only a net emigration of only 1,000 per year. Approximately, 5,000 foreign nationals are still arriving yearly but 6,000 native Irish are now emigrating yearly. Some of the comments have mentioned the large number of Irish emigrating to Australia, Canada, etc. . The Irish from the Republic are also emigrating to Northern Ireland. The NiNo applications for citizens of the Republic of Ireland are as follows:
2006 1090
2007 2070
2008 2350
2009 2570
2010 2720
2011 2840
2012 2960
2013 3240
If this rate were to continue until the 2031 census there would be an additional 60,000+ nationalists living in Northern Ireland. There is no source of growth for the Protestant population in Northern Ireland. It is slowly decreasing due to deaths exceeding births as well as emigration. The Catholic population will increase dramatically due to natural increase, immigrants from the Republic and foreign nationals.
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Great work Faha.
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1. The Nation went it alone in 1921 with only 5/6 of the country – and with only 25% of the wealth of the country.
75% of the wealth of the country was then in the North-Eastern 1/6 part – did not stop the momentum for National liberation.
If economics was THE only factor, we’d all want to join up with Qatar.
From reading some of the comments above, one would get the impression that a decision to remain part of the UK or to join a Re-United Ireland on economics was a case of deciding between Zimbabwe or Luxembourg.
Yes, this part of the country is suffering at the present time – but as economic cycles are just that – cyclical – it does not follow that it will remain like this. Far from it – the 1980’s were disastrous – but a solid recovery was made by the mid-90’s. Hopefully, we will have learnt the painful lessons next time around (the EU Commission is taking a much more active role in supervising all National Budgets – helpful move) so that the next recovery will not be squandered. By that stage (2020 + ), there will be a Nationalist majority in the North – a major game-changer.
More and more unionists see the writing on the wall – and at that stage (2020 +) as the inevitable Re-United Ireland looms ever closer, so too will unionists be more prepared to negotiate a deal with Nationalists on their future with a Re-United Ireland.
It’s all good.
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The main factors to stay in the UK are the economy and the NHS, however the reality is the economy and the NHS in the UK are both on life support. We are unlikely to keep getting our free handouts forever from London so although the staus quo is the ‘safe’ option for the moment things can change quickly.
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re. “More and more unionists see the writing on the wall”
If you have any actual evidence of that I’d be delighted to hear it.
What is relevant in this debate is the relative wealth of Britain and Ireland(South) – and as mentioned above we need to recognise that to some (Nats) people – their relative wealth is a factor – the reality is that we may not for a long time be wealthier than Britain and we need to advance arguements that are not simply based on economics or we will (probably) be waiting a lot longer than 2020 for a UI.
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1…..”we may not be for a long time wealthier than Britain…..”
According to “Global Finance”, that time is already upon us :
http://www.gfmag.com/component/content/article/119-economic-data/12538-the-richest-countries-in-the-world.html
2…..”waiting a lot longer than 2020 for a UI…….”
I do not envisage a UI by 2020 – there will be a Nationalist majority by 2020 – and this will increase with each subsequent year. By 2030, the unionist community could well be below the 40% mark in the North – that’s only a mere 17 years away.
3….” Evidence of the inevitability of a Re-United Ireland in the unionist community..”
– it would be political suicide for any unionist politician to PUBLICLY state that the game is up. PUBLICLY, they have to trot out the party line that the Union has never been safer – even though they cannot even get a flag up on Belfast City Hall on their own terms, and this is when Unionists are still in the majority – albeit slim – in the North.
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Stuck for time at moment but regarding point 1) – will answer this fuller – but GDP includes mulinational profits which is skews the figures – especially in Ireland’s case.
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Ireland is just below the UK in terms of GNP(GNI) – but there is little in it (which I’m admittedly surpised about).
re. “More and more unionists see the writing on the wall ”
You havent offered any evidence of that. Robinson was able to taunt SF about a referendum suggesting that SF if they got their way would be ‘like turkeys voting for Chrismas’.
When Ireland is well clear of bailout territory with a few years of borrowing money on the ‘market’ then SF can start talking about a UI – any talk of that now would not be well received by Southern Nats never mind Northern Nats – finance was even available for the Narrow Water scheme.
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Sammy,
For the umpteenth time, the southern 26 counties, which, prior to independence were an economic basket case, are now a dynamic successful independent economy. They have had a seriously dodgy spell but are well on the road to recovery. The links are on the previous thread. The IMF are out the door, every single economic indicator is now positive. I remind you that the UK was bailed out by the IMF in the 1970’s as well.
The North eastern 6 counties, on the other hand, have economically stagnated and are in receipt of an annual 11BN subvention.
This was the economic powerhouse of Ireland pre=partition.
The overwhelming argument against an independent Scotland is that they will be worse off.
I think the facts suggest otherwise
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BD,
What i think we can agree on is that things are getting better (which I’m delighted about) but and it is a large but – I think that you are seriously underestimating the extent of the crisis in the Southern economy.
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“There are those in the Catholic community who are and always have been committed unionists. But the majority of those Catholics who would opt to remain as a part of the United Kingdom do not vote for the DUP or UUP. Most of them, if they vote at all, will, at least in the short term, vote according to long-established community patterns for nationalist parties. For the most part, they support the present constitutional position, not because of the emotional attachment that we feel, but because, quite legitimately, they believe it will provide them with the best opportunities for the future. Most are more likely to feel culturally Irish than they are to feel culturally British.
In 50 years’ time, it will be the votes of this sector that will help ensure that Northern Ireland’s position as part of the United Kingdom remains safe.”
Peter Robinson admitting that the occupation will need Catholic votes to survive – the argument is when. Mene Mene Tekel Uharsin
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We should ask this on the 11+. I like maths but my head hurts. One unknown factor is how the mere idea of a UI being possible might spark a unionist exodus. My old boss says he would definitely leave (for Scotland). Ironically, A Scottish yes vote may do it and the bookies have it 5/1 on. SF/SDLP just need to impress on our fellow Ulstermen that it isn’t economics, we’re brought up Irish. End of. Interesting times.
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Scot ref: Yes 9/2 not 1/5. No is 1/8 as per Paddy Power.
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Just checked again. Yes gone into 4/1
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Yes….a significant number of Unionists will not stomach living in a Fenian majority North and will leave, further exacerbating the minority unionist camp from 2020 onwards.
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An interesting thing that I am aware of is how many Unionists leave an area when it becomes a nationalist majority. Hence we have a polarisation of towns and townlands. There doesn’t seem to be the same reaction regarding nationalists. Has anyone else noticed this?
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I dunno Dub. Look at Strabane district. It was one of the few areas where Protestants recorded an increase (no doubt emigration of younger poorer Catholics played a part of this).
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I have begun to find these analyses so complex and with so many assumptions that it is hard to know what is happening.
Any reason why in-migration from GB was excluded from the analysis?
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Glenn,
Net in-migration from GB is a minor factor. The 2001 census showed 81,300 born in England, Scotland and Wales and the 2011 census showed 82,700 so there was a net in-migration of only 1,400. Probably ~13,000 British soldiers and dependents left from 2001 and 2011 so the net in-migration of non soldiers was approximately 14,000. Most of those born in GB who live in Northern Ireland appear to be the children or grandchildren of Irish who settled in GB. The religious background ( excluding British military still in Northern Ireland ) is 34% Catholic, 49% Protestant and 17% None/Other. If you exclude native Irish and their children who live in GB the Catholic population in GB is only 5% of the remainder of the population. The religious composition of those born in GB but living in Northern Ireland is not at all similar to the native English, Scottish and Welsh population. The Catholic percentage is much higher indicating that many are children or grandchildren of Irish who settled in GB. Of course many of those Protestants born in GB are also the children and grandchildren of Northern Irish Protestants who settled in GB. There are some of that 82,700 that are not of Irish origin, but probably a small number. Of the net 14,000 new immigrants born in GB ( from 2001 to 2011 ) perhaps 2,000 to 4,000 are not of Irish origin.
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Thing is that GB-NI is the largest migration in both directions. And I think it will continue to be so.
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“GAA clubs, Irish pubs etc where they can meet other young Irish people and it gives them a sense of home, and a sense of belonging even when abroad. What do young Protestants have? Nothing.”
Cricket, rugby etc?
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The point is that they become naturalised – or at least their children do and they are lost forever, whereas nationalists and their children through GAA clubs remain culturally linked and hence the chances of returning are higher
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Time will tell if unionists/loyalists want to hang about a NI with a non unionist majority.
If the catholic middle class continues to grow then Bangor and Carrickfergus could change in a couple of decades.
You’d expect to see the SDLP being elected in those areas.
As an old “Red” even i’ve got to admit old fashioned capitalism can change an area in less than a decade.
Some nice houses out Bangor way.
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A larger swathe of unionists will not be able to swallow being a minority in the 6 counties run by Fenians after 2020……..some very tough decisions facing unionists in the next 10+ years. Nationalists will be in the driving seat from 2020 onwards and they can set the agenda – and pace – of the Re-United Ireland project, whilst simultaneously increasing All-Ireland cooperation through the GFA – and sending the bills to London. Nice work if you can get it.
A Re-United Ireland is inevitable.
It’s all good.
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I did think that new road to Carrick could bring more trouble that the locals bargained for. Increased house prices and a load of middle class undesirables. Glengormley is a good example of pul moving out, mainly to Ballyclare due to too many Catholics moving in. Some might claim ethnic cleansing but there is a stronger pull beneath it where the reduced numbers results in poorer school choices and people move based on school choice.
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New data from the census without area or ward name’s but shows that Catholics are now the majority in 0-10 in both Lisburn, Antrim. Rises in both N/abbey and C/Reagh also. Poor performance again from NISRA.
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Sorry Ormeau,
I don’t follow. What are Catholics the majority of in Antrim and Lisburn?
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age group
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The religion-age ward data is now available from the census. If you go to the Ethnicity, Identity, Language, Religion section download file DC2117NI-Religion or Religion brought up in by Age(Administrative Geographies) NUTS,ELB, HSCT, AA, LGD, Ward. It is a very large file so it will take some time to download.
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Faha,
No details of what ward’s corresponded with the number’s or am I missing something?
Paul G,
In the under 10s Catholics are a majority compared to protestants and all other Christians in both Antrim and Lisburn LGB.
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Thanks for that Ormeau, If correct I am stunned regarding Lisburn
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BD,
they were around the 40-42 percent in the last census and in the last 10 years many Catholics have moved in Lisburn, Glenavy, Moira. In addition Lagmore/Mount Eagles has got much .
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Ormeau,
Open the file folder DC2117NI. There is a sub file “Administrative Geography Code” and open “Electoral Ward”. There you will find the all the wards starting with Aldergrove 95AA01, Balloo 95AA02, etc. . The wards are under the file Ward but are not labeled except for the code at the very bottom. Unfortunately, you will have to copy and past all 582 if you want to label them. Interesting finding in the East Belfast wards. Look at the number of Catholic preschool and school age children compared to the over 70 Catholic population. East Belfast may resemble the South Belfast of 2001 census in another 20 years.
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Link to Faha’s folder above (DC2117NI)- BD
http://www.ninis2.nisra.gov.uk/public/SearchResults.aspx
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The link brings up zero results.
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Apologies, it helps to actually input the search criteria you provided. Cheers.
So new census data and a new electoral register – plenty of meat there!
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larger. lol
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New electoral registration stats out. There was quite a lot of talk last time about nationalists not registering. I didnt see it then and I definitely dont see it now. The top 2 constituencies are Newry and Armagh and West Tyrone with 92% (not very unionist last time I checked). Overall 88% are registered.and flegger central East Belfast where we were all led to believe that there would be some huge increase in registration to get the fleg beck up is the third lowest of all the constituencies! A guy over on slugger was predicting big Alec getting booted out of South Belfast on the last registration figures, how I dont know. The registration is by far and away the lowest but lets not forget it has very large student and immigrant populations who are less likely to bother. Despite that the electorate has increased by 5000 since the previous election. Also I cant see how looking at wards in South Belfast helps as the only obvious nationalist areas are the markets and lower Ormeau and at the last election with no SF candidate SDLP still polled badly in these areas.
http://www.eoni.org.uk/getmedia/d03660d6-cc3f-46bb-8580-456b4be15ee1/Final-Canvass-Statistics-by-Constituency-(website)
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Look at the column “Number of electors confirmed from other official sources”. These are people who did not return the voter registration forms but were added/kept on the register because they show up on the Health Card register, etc. Belfast East and Strangford had 4,665 and 4,616. Belfast West, Foyle and Newry-Armagh were 9,021, 9141 and 8,461. Catholics were much more likely not to return the forms. They were also much more likely not to return the 2011 census forms, which is why my school census analysis showed a large undercount of Catholics in the 2011 census.
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Would be interesting to know the reason for this. Apathy? Was it because people were required to tick the ‘northern ireland’ box? Migration?
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Faha,
How sginificant is this? If they turn up to vote then it is not necassarily such a big deal – or are you saying it is?
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Sammy,
The number of unionists of voting age has been stagnant since the 2001 census. The nationalist voting age population has gone up by over 100,000 but the number voting for SF/SDLP has dropped. It just shows that the apathy in the nationalist electorate is even greater than one would expect from the official figures.
There were many DEA’s in the 2011 District Council elections where the nationalist turnout was 10% to 20% less than the unionist turnout ( i.e. unionist turnout 50%, nationalist turnout 35% ). Bangordub and I hope to analyze all the DEA’s in the 2011 election now that the ward age religion data is available.
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Faha,
Surely the important column in the stats is ‘% of Eligible Electorate Registered’ – irrespective of whether they returned the forms or not? The fact they didnt return the forms does not mean they are not going to vote – or are you suggesting it does?
In relation to relative voter turnout since 2001 when you compare constituency by constitueny I think (from the last time I looked at it) it shows a decline in Nat % turnout and an increase in Unionist % turnout – BUT – with Nat turnout still ahead.
Are you saying that you think Unionist overall turnout is ahead of Nat turnout?
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Sammy,
Voting age population was 1,381,000 and those who voted 661,736 in the 2011 Assembly election. That is only a 47.9% turnout. I calculated 48% from each community. Low turnout in North Down, Strangford and East Antrim brings down the unionist percentage but poor nationalist turnout relative to unionist turnout in Fermanagh South Tyrone, East Derry, Upper Bann, South Antrim and Lagan Valley brings down the nationalist percentage. According to the census there are 4.1 nationalist quotas in Fermanagh South Tyrone, 4.2 in Upper Bann, 3 in East Derry, 1.4 in Lagan Valley, and 2.3 in South Antrim. Obviously the election results were very different. It will take a whole month to go through all 582 wards and match the voting age population with the DEA’s but I hope to do it eventually !
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Great work Faha, though should that be 3.1 quotas in Upper Bann?
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Are you including under18s in your quotas?
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Paul,
Thanks for correcting my typo. It should be 3.2 for Upper Bann.
Fear Feirsteach,
I only included the 18+ age groups that were released in the new census data last week.
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Anyone who was 14 years and 4 months or older on Census Day, 2011 should be on the new electoral register – but I’m sure you know this anyway 😉
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boondock,
Yes, figures look out of line with what was ‘expected’ – I wonder if there has been a comparitive increase in non-nat areas – i.e. the gap is closing as more Unionists relative to Nats are registering.
It is perhap surprising that NB is the 2nd lowest – potentially the most interesting(most marginal constituency) – but I suppose the gap between North and EB and WB is quite narrow.
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Sammy,
I agree that NB is the most interesting constituency.
Faha’s central point is that there is a considerable undercount of potential nationalist voters (I would agree with that) but I take the view that it is only actual voters that count.
Change comes dripping slow
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5607 electors in Mallusk! A rethink on the boundaries required..
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Mallusk is fascinating
Massive change in a short period:
97.95% were from the white (including Irish Traveller) ethnic group;
44.66% belong to or were brought up in the Catholic religion and 47.11% belong to or were brought up in a ‘Protestant and Other Christian (including Christian related)’ religion; and
51.13% indicated that they had a British national identity, 27.30% had an Irish national identity and 33.08% had a Northern Irish national identity*.
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I think with the change of Mallusk ward it has brought it down to around the 3000 mark. Saying that Blackrock estate beside Mayfield but in Mallusk ward is still only half built with building work picking up pace recently. There has been a lot of house building since 2011 so I say those % figures for mallusk would be too high. I’d imagine lots of people would not be registered.
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Just checked the provisional recommendations for the new wards,parts of mallusk have been moved to the hightown ward,most of mayfield estate.not sure how big a dent that would make on the 5607.
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I’d hope to see some more of this data avalanche appearing on the site soon.
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x 2
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In terms of “voluntary” population movement and communalism in post-WWII western Europe most observers point to the north-east of Ireland. However very similar processes took place in Belgium, albeit largely without violent conflict. Today’s the Kingdom of the Belgians is a de facto confederation made up of three distinct communities (French, Flemish and German with Brussels as a contested region). It is very much a case of separate but equal rather than any of the “Ulster nationalism” or “getalongerist” ideology that FJH discusses (for the latter is really the former in a more palatable guise).
So when BD talks about members of the Unionist community moving out of communities that are becoming perceptibly Nationalist, even if no threat is offered to them or their way of life, the same thing happens or has happened in Belgium.
And the most important lesson from Belgium is that appealing to people’s economic interests comes second place to appealing to people’s interests in terms of equal or greater access to the resources of the state, public services, job opportunities, greater freedom for cultural expression, etc.
Equality between French-speakers and Flemish-speakers arose because Flemish political leaders told their community that the only way they could achieve parity was through political parity. And that could only happen by having their own autonomous Flemish communities.
If SF and the SDLP really want to achieve reunification of the country then they need to start talking about “transition” rather than “devolution”. They need to sell the idea to their community that the sole and only way that political parity can be achieved, that equal citizenship can be achieved, is true a reunited Ireland. A reunited Ireland where their political, social, economic and cultural interests will be met.
After all is this not the same promise Unionist leaders sell to their community in relation to the so-called “Union”?
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Séamas,
re. ” A reunited Ireland where their political, social, economic and cultural interests will be met.
I agree but this is the tricky bit – it is not clear how SF/SDLP (or others) can try and sell one of those three – for example cultural without guaranteeing another e.g. economic. As I mentioned above it MAY be the case that Britian can offer the North greater economic benefit/security – but does that mean that those in favour of a UI should simply try to ignore that, or try and suggest otherwise, or should they admit that but suggest the other benefits e.g. of being part of a country that runs its own affairs – outweigh that.
Form what I have seen so far – I dont think SF have resolved this tactical issue. This is underatandable given it is a very diffiulct one for them – but launching a campaign for a border poll without this being resolved can make them look silly as was the fate of Alex Maskey(as referred to above) when sent out to put forward SF’s position.
SF should, or perhaps should have said, that because of the actions of FF in wrecking the country a UI is off the agenda in the short term. Poltically that would be a good move – in addition to being also true.
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BD, Faha thanks for the info i had a look at some wards last nights and they were interesting.
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