In case anyone thinks the late lamented Horseman is forgotten, He is not.
I promised to get back to the figures and I am currently working on a post regarding education linked to the Census statistics.
Meanwhile I suggest a read of the following. It was published yesterday by Frank Jacobs and references Horseman amongst others. It is also a cracking read. Original article is here.
I am indebted to Séamus for pointing me in the direction of this particular piece.
619 – Is Ulster Doomed? Scenarios for Repartition
To condemn the riots that rocked Belfast last Friday as “shameful”, as the British Secretary of State for Northern Ireland Theresa Villiers has done, fails to address the two conflicting impressions they left on outside observers: Wasn’t this supposed to be over years ago? But also: Isn’t this a replay of what happened last month?
To people outside the UK, and even many in Great Britain itself [1], Friday night’s violence was an anachronistic throwback to the Troubles, an era roughly concurrent with the final third of the 20th century, when Northern Ireland was barely a week out of the news. And the headlines were consistently depressing: the conflict between Ulster’s catholic minority and protestant majority [2] was fought out in the streets, with marches and riots, bombs and guns, targeted and not-so-targeted killings. In all, the Troubles claimed the lives of over 3,500 people [3]. Decades of sectarian violence were supposedly concluded in 1998, by the Good Friday Agreement.
From the sheer drop in bad news out of Ulster, it does seem that former foes have found a modus vivendi. Ballots have replaced bullets as the currency of political exchange. The Rev. Ian Paisley, the iconic firebrand [4]of the unionist cause, and Martin McGuinness, a former IRA commander, not only served together as First Minister and Deputy First Minister of Northern Ireland respectively, but the sworn enemies of yore got on so well they famously were dubbed the Chuckle Brothers. A sight perhaps not as dignified as Nelson Mandela’s long walk to freedom, but a symbol nonetheless of progress towards peace.
But clearly not everyone finds there’s much to chuckle about in the new Ulster. Friday’s riots were but the last in a series of violent outbursts over the past half year or so. Motivating the unrest is a deepening sense of frustration in a large part of the loyalist community.
This most recent spate of rioting in Belfast’s city centre saw up to a thousand loyalist youths burn cars and hurl projectiles at police in riot gear, who in turn attempted to regain control with dogs, water cannon and plastic bullets. Point of friction was a republican parade due to march along Royal Avenue, one of Belfast’s main shopping streets. But loyalist anger has been boiling over ever since a seemingly trivial change in municipal flag-flying protocol back in December, when Belfast City Council decided to limit the flying of the Union Jack [5] from City Hall to 18 designated days a year [6].
Although the (British) Flag Institute encourages local authorities to fly national flags the year round [7], Belfast City Council as long ago as 1906 went the extra mile and voted to make the daily display of the Union Jack mandatory. Until last year. The difference between then and now is that just over a century ago, the city council had a solid unionist majority, while today it has a plurality [8] of nationalists.
The change in political fortunes in Belfast reflects a wider trend across Northern Ireland as a whole, which is experiencing a slow but ineluctable reversal of the numerical strength of its two main communities. Ulster’s protestant majority is well on its way to becoming a minority, and the catholic minority may soon be a majority. The implications for Ulster – which was exempted from Irish independence and kept inside the UK precisely because of its protestant (and therefore unionist) majority – are huge.
This demographic reversal was the main (and gleefully reiterated) point ofUlster is Doomed, a political blog that was active from 2007 to 2010. As its title suggests, the blog’s writer – the anonymous Horseman [9] – not only was unsympathetic to what he called ‘Project Ulster’, but he also anticipated its demise. His main arguments were a few incontrovertible demographic facts:
• In the 1961 census, 35% of Northern Ireland was catholic. In the 2001 census, the catholic share of the total population had increased to 44%, and in 2011 to 45%. Meanwhile, the share of protestants in the general population dropped from 53% in 2001 to 48% in 2011. So the protestants’ slim majority has vanished, and their numerical advantage over the other community has diminished spectacularly, from 9% to 3% in a mere decade.
• In 1967, 60% of marriages in Northern Ireland took place in protestant churches, by 2005 this was down to 35%. In 2006, 52% of Northern Ireland’s 5,813 religious marriages were catholic, 20% presbyterian, 16% church of Ireland, 4% methodist and 8% other christian denominations.
• In school year 2006-7, ‘declared Catholics’ made up slightly more than 50% of school children in Northern Ireland, while ‘declared Protestants’ numbered just 39,5% (down from 42,7% in 2000-1).
• Research conducted in 2007 shows that youths leaving Ulster to study are twice as likely to be protestant than catholic, with those who go to Britain more likely to stay there than returning after graduation [10]. In contrast, the student populations at both of Northern Ireland’s main universities are now majority-catholic (55% at Queens University, 60% at the University of Ulster).
• The brain drain of Ulster’s protestant youth reinforces the existing dichotomy between the older segment of Northern Ireland’s population, which is solidly protestant, and the younger segment, which is mainly catholic. In Down District, for example, the general population (in 2007) was 62% catholic, but if you only considered the over-90s, that fraction fell to just 37%. Overall, the 2001 census showed that while 67% over-90-year-olds are protestant, only 39% of 10-to-20-year-olds are. Another way to enumerate the divergence of the age cohorts in either community: while there were an equal number of births and deaths for protestants, for catholics, births outnumber deaths by about 6,000 per annum.
• Demography is destiny, and its effects are being felt at the ballot box. In 1969, unionism got over 66% of the Northern Irish vote. By the 1980s, that comfortable two-thirds majority had slipped into the ‘high 50s’, and to the ‘low 50s’ by the 1990s. In 1997, it dipped below 50% for the first time, and at subsequent elections, it has slipped beneath the halfway mark with increasing frequency. Inversely, the nationalist tally of the vote is going up, from 39,7% in 1998 over 40,7% in 2003 to 42,6% in 2007. As most older people are protestant, and more young people are catholic, one can expect that both trends will continue, up to and beyond the point of intersection.
Horseman predicted, with anticipatory satisfaction: “[S]ome time in the [2010s], unionism is going to enter a period of permanent minority, where it will have to co-exist with a nationalism of virtually the same size […] After a decade or so of tense co-existence nationalism will pull ahead, probably in the 2020s, and the re-unification of Ireland will become possible.”
So, is Ulster doomed? The demographic data does seem to suggest it,ceteris paribus [11]. And yet there are two credible – or at least thinkable – alternatives.
Horseman’s blog hints at the possibility that unionists modify their ‘Project Ulster’ – a Northern Ireland created for protestants, and linked in perpetuity to the Great Britain for the protection of their privileged position – to something he called ‘Project Northern Ireland’. In this model, both communities would forge a common identity based on their shared territory, rather than stress their allegiance to either a united Ireland or the United Kingdom. King Billy [12] probably wouldn’t approve, but an as yet undefined halfway position somewhere between Dublin and Westminster would be a better outcome for ‘post-unionists’ than wholesale absorption by the Republic. Post-unionism can take some comfort in the results of the 2011 census, which for the first time asked the inhabitants of Ulster for their national identity. While 40% claimed to be ‘British-only’, 21% said they were ‘Northern Irish-only’. If Northern Irish exceptionalism is to survive a unionist majority, it is this latter category that needs to grow. The great discrepancy between Ulster catholics (45%) and ‘Irish-only’ Northern Irish (25%) does offer some hope for this option.
The other option? Basically, a repeat of the original retreat: abandon enough territory for the remainder to be solidly protestant. Re-partition could put a stop to the decades-long protestant slide towards demographic oblivion. Majority-catholic areas would go to the Republic, leaving a new Ulster smaller, but more protestant than before, and thus also more viable as a British outpost in Ireland. Of course, any set of re-drawn borders would leave substantial members of each community on the ‘wrong’ side, at least initially. The re-partition of Ulster would thus raise the spectre of ethnic cleansing.
Repartition is not an entirely new idea; back in 1972, when the Troubles were at their deadliest, the British government produced a discussion paper on The Future of Northern Ireland. It proposed “that consideration might be given to a partial or incomplete transfer of sovereignty either in geographical terms (i.e. by transferring to the Irish Republic those parts of Northern Ireland where a majority in favour exists) or in jurisdictional terms (e.g. by adopting a pattern of joint sovereign responsibility for Northern Ireland as recommended by the SDLP or by a scheme of condominium for which there are such precedents as the New Hebrides [i.e. Vanuatu, before independence a French-British condominium] and Andorra [still a French-Spanish condominium].”
This map shows a British government estimate of areas considered to have catholic majorities (cross-hatched in green). This map formed the basis of a ‘simplified’ proposal of areas to be transferred to the Irish Republic, as demonstrated on this BBC map.
Note that this simplified plan did not fully take into account the complexity of the geographical distribution of protestants and catholics (see map below), and would therefore have made life rather more difficult for some.
“Had the repartition considered by the British government in 1972 come to pass, it would have created as many problems as it hoped to resolve”, writes Horseman. “Localised unionist majorities in north Fermanagh and Cookstown would have found themselves ‘behind enemy lines’, while the nationalists of Crossmore would have found themselves still in Northern Ireland despite being surrounded on three sides by the Republic. There would have been a long and unnecessary strip of ‘Northern Ireland’ stretching down the east bank of the Foyle to Castlederg (and including Strabane!) for no sensible reason”.
Another repartition plan was proposed in 1994 by the Ulster Defence Association [13]. Their ‘ethnic Protestant Homeland’ would become a necessity if and when Britain abandoned the unionists to their fate. The UDA justified the retreat to a smaller Ulster by admitting that “at least two and probably three counties [14] in Ulster are already lost. Surrendering [them] to the Irish Republic would alleviate much of the security problem”.
The UDA’s proposal was based on Two Ulsters: a Case for Repartition (1986) by Liam Kennedy. In that book, Kennedy proposed three possible scopes of a reduced British Ulster. The first one included only the protestant heartland, mainly in the northeast. The second one included an area along the Foyle river, up to Omagh. A third also envisioned a protestant exclave in and around Enniskillen, in the southwest of Northern Ireland.
This biggest of the reduced Ulsters would have had the most unmanageable borders of the three. But even the smallest version would still have a ‘security problem’ – i.e. a catholic minority, heavily concentrated in certain areas (Belfast’s Falls Road area, for instance). In a chilling echo of the Bosnian war fought at that very moment over similar ethnic entanglements, the UDA suggested three options for the catholic population of Rump Ulster: they were to be “expelled, nullified or interned”.
Short of wholesale genocide or expulsion of the ‘other’ community, repartition of course risks merely recreating the same old problem on a smaller scale. Could that risk be reduced by re-arranging the new borders to follow the communal divisions as closely as possible?
This map shows the distribution of the catholic and protestant communities in the snapshot of the 2001 census. It is a far more complicated picture than the proposals mentioned above. Only very generally can one say that the west and south are more catholic, and the north and east more protestant. Areas of clear catholic majority intermingle with heavily protestant districts, especially in cities like Belfast and Londonderry.
This is that same map in simplified form: Northern Ireland as a patchwork two territories, each squeezed, strangled and enclaved by the other community’s lands. But, even in Northern Ireland, religion merely informspolitics, it doesn’t determine it.
A detailed map of Northern Ireland’s 101 District Electoral Areas (DEAs) show those areas (in blue) in which the unionists (plus independents) achieved over 50% of the vote at local elections in 2005, the second one (in green) where nationalists got a majority. If one combined both maps and overlaid them on the previous religion map, one would notice a marked discrepancy. Religion and politics don’t overlap as one would expect, not even in Northern Ireland.
So is there no conceivable, viable option for repartition at all? In his last of six posts on the subject, Horseman outlines a few modest proposals:
Cantonisation
No, not the gradual transformation of Ulster into a Northern Irish version of the Chinese city of Guangzhou (formerly Canton), but the subdivision of its territory into fairly small, semi-autonomous political units referred to as cantons [15].
This would avoid the creation of two antagonistic blocs, but still allow either side to pursue its policies, albeit on a strictly local level. Somewhat reminiscent on the compromise in the fragmented German Empire after the Thirty Years War: cuius regio, eius religio [16].
Regional bodies
Perhaps the intersection of political and economic sense would require the subdivision of Ulster into larger areas. Maybe something like this.
The advantage: at least the unionist territory is united in a single block. The disadvantage: the republican territory is divided in three separate areas (although two of those are contiguous with the Republic itself, and therefore likelier candidates for absorption than the isolated republican exclave in the north). Also, these larger areas mitigate the demographic precision of the smaller cantons; the catholic exclave in turn contains a strongly unionist area, for example.
Erring on the side of contiguity over homogeneity, a second proposal eliminates the northern catholic enclave.
Belfast
Ulster’s capital is the culmination of its ethnic and territorial problems: catholic and protestant neighbourhoods are divided by so-called ‘peace walls’, but the intricate interconnectedness of these ‘tribal’ zones virtually excludes the surgical option, i.e. separating them into two distinct zones of authority. As Horseman states, the reverse is more sensible: an expanded Belfast Metropolitan Area commensurate to its capital status, and its urban scope. Belfast could be neutral terrain, run jointly by both communities.
So repartition is not just one option, but a Pandora’s box – a can of worms, if you will – of different choices, each risking to create more iniquity and antagonism than it would resolve. Nevertheless, ideally, “a repartition into semi-autonomous areas could provide both security, opportunity, and pride to all of the people of Northern Ireland”, opined Horseman. “Combining geographical repartition with non-territorial authorities for ‘community’ issues could ensure an even greater level of satisfaction”.
Repartition as a valid option to resolve a lingering conflict is important far beyond the context of the Ulster conflict. The radical decrease in birth rates in many developed countries, often well below replacement level[17], coupled with continued high fertility rates elsewhere, and in immigrant communities in the developed world, will produce comparable reversals of majority and minority populations [18]. Will they be followed by massive shifts in political orientation?
Quite likely, if we’re to follow Horseman’s triumphalist reasoning: “Project Ulster has been beaten in the maternity wards, and it is all over bar the shouting. The whole basis of unionism’s division of Ireland – its local majority in the north-eastern corner – is visibly evaporating, and with it will go the division. Unionism has a short window of opportunity, before these kids grow up and vote it into oblivion, to come to an honourable settlement with their fellow Irishmen and women – but there is no indication yet that that reality has yet sunk into the consciousness of the leaders of unionism. Perhaps, like Paisley, they know that they personally will no longer be around when the day of Irish reunification comes, and so they are content to leave their children and grandchildren to their own devices”.
One commenter on Ulster is Doomed, clearly not sharing the blogger’s political persuasion, argued the opposite point. Far from defeated, unionism had actually achieved all its goals; it was republicanism that was dying, if not dead as a dodo already: “I think the majority of Unionists recognise the total victory that has been achieved over Irish Nationalism through The Belfast Agreement as a reality. The [Provisional IRA] surrendered and destroyed their weapons. Stormont [the Northern Irish parliament] has a double veto, which suits those happy with the status quo. North/South bodies are answerable to Stormont. West/East bodies bring Ireland closer to The UK, not further away. The Irish Republic would need to tax each Irish family between £4000 and £8000 per annum to maintain Northern living standards as now [in 2009]. Many Ulster Catholics work for The UK state (including a British police force). The Republic has removed all claims to Northern Ireland from its statutes. According to recent opinion polls almost half of Ulster’s Catholics now oppose a United Ireland”.
Could it be that winning a demographic race is potentially as transformative as losing one? Or is this just a symptom of the fact that this particular transformation – Ulster’s peace process – has been so successful that neither side is able to convince the other side they’ve lost?
All images taken from Ulster is Doomed.
_______
[1] Ulster is in the UK, but not part of Great Britain. The latter is the island that includes England, Scotland and Wales. The former is the state that encompasses Great Britain and Northern Ireland. Confused? Here’s aVenn diagram… ↩
[2] The conflict is not about religion per se, but religion serves as a marker for political persuasion. Catholics generally identify with republicanism, which aims to bring Ulster into the (mainly catholic) Republic of Ireland. Protestants mainly prefer unionism, i.e. the continued union with Great Britain within the UK. ↩
[3] Between 1969 and 2011, the Troubles claimed upwards of 3,500 lives. Just over 2,000 were killed by republican paramilitaries (IRA, etc.), slightly more than 1,000 by loyalist militias (UVF e.a.), while the British security forces killed almost 400. ↩
[4] To get a taste of Dr. Paisley’s rhetorical flair, take a look at his famous “Ulster says NO!” speech from 1985. ↩
[5] Yes, jack is a naval term, so strictly speaking the Union Flag may be called the Union Jack only when flown from the bow of a Royal Navy ship. But language is funny that way: an error repeated often enough becomes a rule (or at least the exception to a rule). ↩
[6] Mainly on royal birthdays. The flag was flown on 22 July 2013, for instance, when Kate Middleton gave birth to the boy destined one day to become George VII. ↩
[7] See the Flag Institute’s Flying Flags in the United Kingdom, a Guide to Britain’s Flag Protocol. ↩
[8] Plurality occurs when the largest faction in an assembly is nevertheless short of a majority. In Belfast’s current, 49-seat City Council, the three unionist parties (DUP, UUP and PUP) together have 21 seats, while both republican parties (Sinn Féin and SDLP) have 22. The republican councillors wanted to do away with the British flag entirely, while the unionists wanted to keep things as they were. The current compromise was a proposal by the non-sectarian Alliance Party, which holds 6 seats on the council. ↩
[9] As far as I know, he remains anonymous, even in death (his passing was reported in 2010). Horseman was unapologetically republican, and professed his conviction with the gift of the gab that inspires invective on both sides of the argument: “Politics in Northern Ireland is no longer about jeering at the Catholics from behind the protective wall of British military and financial support. That protective support is being slowly but surely dismantled.” In one particularly memorable, hilarious post, he compared unionism to a cargo cult. His pre-obituary for Ian Paisley is morbidly, mordantly funny: “He is not dead yet, but his career is over, and it won’t be long until he meets his maker (so he thinks, anyway). In order to beat the rush, this blog would like to publish its obituary now, so that we can ignore his death when it comes”. In a twist that bedevils outsiders who like to reduce the Northern Ireland conflict to a religious issue, he was not (or at least no longer) a catholic, but as strident an atheist as he was a republican: “Here’s a suggestion to all [religious] people – open your eyes and get an education. There is no god, and the scribblings of some misogynist in the Stone Age are utterly irrelevant. Your religions, and all their ministers and priests, are all wrong”. If he was wrong, and there is a god, he now -wherever he may be – probably appreciates the irony of being dead while the subject of his pre-obituary remains alive. ↩
[10] A pattern that generated “its own facetious acronym” – NIPPLES (Northern Ireland Protestant Professionals Living in England and Scotland). ↩
[11] All other things remaining the same. Not to be confused with mutatis mutandis: changing what needs to be changed. ↩
[12] William of Orange, the (protestant) Dutchman who in 1690, as William III of England and Ireland, defeated the forces of his usurped predecessor, the catholic James II, at the Battle of the Boyne. That victory became the justification, and its celebration the confirmation, of protestant dominance over Northern Ireland. And ‘King Billy’ is the mythical sovereign the loyalists can trace their allegiance to. ↩
[13] The Ulster Defence Association, formed in 1971, was the main loyalist paramilitary organisation. It managed to remain ‘legal’ for 20 years because attacks by its members were claimed by the UFF (Ulster Freedom Fighters), which had been outlawed in 1973. The UDA itself was outlawed in 1992, declared a ceasefire in 1994 and disbanded in 2007. ↩
[14] ‘Ulster’ is often used as a synonym for ‘Northern Ireland’, but strictly speaking, the latter is a narrower geographical concept that the former. The British part of Ireland consists of six of Ulster’s nine counties: Antrim, Armagh, Down, Fermanagh, Londonderry (a.k.a. Derry), and Tyrone. The remaining three counties of Ulster are in the Republic of Ireland: Cavan, Donegal, and Monaghan. ↩
[15] In reference to the Swiss cantons, which jealously guard their historical autonomy. ↩
[16] Whose realm, his religion. ↩
[17] 2.1 kids per woman in developed countries, up to 3.3 in developing countries because of higher infant mortality. Many developed nations have a fertility rate well below replacement leaven. Niger is the country with the world’s highest fertility rate (just over 7.0), Singapore has the lowest fertility rate (at 0.8). The overall fertility rate in the US hovers around replacement level; the social group with the highest fertility rate in the US are the Amish, who manage an average of over 7 per woman. In the year 1900, there were about 5,000 Amish. By 2010, there were nearly 250,000. At this rate, there will be 7 million Amish by the close of the 21st century and 44 million by 2150. Some time in the 23rd century, the Amish could become the majority population in America. The rest remaining the same, of course. ↩
[18] The US Census Bureau predicts the US will have a majority-minority population (i.e. more than half non-white) by 2043. ↩
Séamas Ó Sionnaigh (An Sionnach Fionn) said:
Big Think also had this a while back, a delight for hardcore cartophiles like myself, “365 – A Nameless Intra-Irish Pene-Enclave“. Oddly I’d actually been there, way back when, without realising the geography of the area beyond knowing that it was “safe”.
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bangordub said:
I think this was mentioned on Horsemans blog, a strange isthmus. Unfortunately for Unionism these former enclaves are linking into bigger blocks and as identified here what were former Unionist areas are gradually being broken up. The Glens, Co, Down, greater Banbridge and West Antrim being examples.
Peter Robinsons letter today is a stunning example of the disarray and confusion within Unionism. He directs all his anger towards other Unionists. Not a word about recent riots and events. This is interesting. Todays Irish News also has some good editorial regarding the DUP.
I have to say that newspaper is rapidly becoming essential reading. A rarity for me.
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paulG said:
Not that I think re-partition will be a option in any likely scenario, but it would have been better if the maps had been based on 2011 rather than 2001 figures. A few pale Orange areas have since turned pale green and the orange corridors and enclaves are more cut off and look even less viable than before.
Furthermore, you don’t have to project too far forward for all nationalist areas to become contigous with nationalist corridors connecting the Glens via Dunloy to S. Derry, N & W Belfast via Crumlin to Armagh and S Belfast via Carryduff to Downpatrick. Theoretically corridors could reduce to the central point of a crossroads allowing continuity on both sides and preventing the creation of enclaves. That would allow for the maximum possible number of people to be within their preffered jurisdiction.
Of course it’s not a solution that many would want, and by the time things got so bad that it became the least worst option. the situation would be too unstable to make corridor borders work.
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Irish Aussie said:
Re the use of 2001 and 2011 figures, another problem with that particular ward map was the methodology, it just counted Catholics, wards over 50% coloured green and progressively greener the more Catholic the ward
.
Any wards under 50% were coloured a pale sandy orange and then progressively more orange, but this created a sort of false positive, if a ward was say 49% Catholic and 44% Protestant then it would get the sandy treatment, making that map look a lot more orange than it should.
If I recall correctly the author of this blog found about a dozen wards that fit that bill after a rather cursory check.
It would be very informative and appreciated if some suitably skilled person could redo that map with the 2011 figures and bearing in mind the above “anomaly”.
I too love maps.
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MPG ..... said:
Yes, excellent idea. Is the CAIN organisation going to update its maps?
Or does anybody have the ability, time and inclination to take this on?
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factual said:
I expect there will be someone sad enough 🙂
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bangordub said:
MPG, (And Factual)
I am currently hunting the web for an editable map.
In the meantime, the best I’ve got is this: http://airomaps.nuim.ie/flexviewer/?config=NICensus2011.xml
If anyone has access or can recommend a resource I’m all ears 😉
Irish Aussie, the above is the 2011 Census results, mapped.
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GreenFlag said:
Re-Partition is a non-runner. By 2020, Nationalists will be the majority in the North – this will be a major game-changer and with each passing year after that, the majority increases. Nationalists want to re-unite our country and have zero interest in lording it over unionists – that’s an Orangey-unionist thingy.
A Re-United Ireland is inevitable.
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sammymcnally said:
GreenFlag
re. “Re-Partition is a non-runner.”
I think you may have just pipped Robbo for the U trun of the week award having trumpeted Re-Partition on Slugger for donkeys.
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GreenFlag said:
I’m not the same GreenFlag – my original “Munsteman” name did not work for some reason so I picked on GreenFlag.
Re-Partition is a non-runner.
A Re-United Ireland is inevitable.
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GreenFlag said:
“Munsterman” I meant to write – typo in earlier post. I usually use “Munsterman” or “NMunsterman”.
(I think yer man “GreenFlag” on Slugger is a Dub).
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RJC said:
That was a fascinating read. Thanks for the heads up bangordub!
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boondock said:
Interesting article by Jacobs but it really was just a cut and paste job from the original horseman
http://ulstersdoomed.blogspot.co.uk/search/label/partition
To be honest re-partition is a non starter it would just create a mess from the word go. No matter how you draw your new border Belfast stands out as a problem trapping hundreds of thousands of nationalists in the smaller orange statelet and the idea of Belfast being some sort of shared territory is pretty laughable seeing as that very idea has started all this recent loyalist thuggery in the first place
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GreenFlag said:
100 % on the money there with your comment “boondock”.
After a Re-United Ireland is in place, in time people will look back and wonder what on earth all the fuss was about in the first place.
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boondock said:
The Belfast problem is the central theme here and I think deep down thats why the fleg at BCC was deemed such a big deal for Unionism. In 20-30 years time when this becomes a bit more relevant Belfasts demographics will have shifted further and we may have a city that is 50% nationalist 25% unionist and 25% other (conservative estimate). Any repartition plot on those figures is sunk as Belfast cant be included in any carve up leaving no town/city of any size left in a new state. Of course there will be attempts to claim Belfast actually is a Metropolis with suburbs such as Larne, Carrick, Lisburn, Bangor and Ards to try and save the day but it wont work.
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bangordub said:
Ok I’ve managed to convert this picture and upload it at last 🙂
It is at the bottom of the main blog
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factual said:
I have to say in my opinion this Horseman approach is doomed not Ulster. Lets face it the proportion of kids in catholic primary schools has stuck at about 47% for the last two decades. It’s not rising or falling. It’s flatlining. Catholicism is dropping quite markedly in the south, and that’s an inescapable trend that means I recon it is going to be dropping in the north too. There are lots of “no religion” people, and they’re the fastest rising demographic and there will be even more next time regardless of how you shade those maps. Moreover, an “await Catholic majority” approach is incompatable with basic noble republican values. The alternative to the horseman approach does exist: a civic nationalism that appeals to people regardless of their traditional background. Look at Mary Lou McDonald as next leader and/or the Scots to see how that’s done. It’s called persuasion.
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bangordub said:
Factual,
This blog is not a religious one. The fact is that the correlation between religious background and voting is extremely close. I am myself not religious at all.
I have made those points many times.
Horseman’s points have been proven time after time. Hence the enormous shifts in political power in the North East.
As for your comment: ” Lets face it the proportion of kids in catholic primary schools has stuck at about 47% for the last two decades”
Plain wrong I’m afraid.
Here are the 2012 Figures by DENI:
2012 Primary Secondary
Catholic 50.12% 75.04%
Protestant 36.19% 21.45%
Other 13.57% 3.51%
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factual said:
You have misread me: those figures you have given are certainly not the proportions of children in Catholic (i.e. Catholic-run) schools. I repeat: the proportion of children in catholic-run primary-age schools (remembering to include prep-departments) has flat-lined at about 47% since the 1990s,
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bangordub said:
Factual, I’ve provided my figures from DENI,
I’m waiting on your source?
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PaulG said:
BD,
2012 Primary Secondary
Catholic 50.12% 75.04%
Protestant 36.19% 21.45%
Other 13.57% 3.51%
Those ‘Secondary School’ figures don’t look right.
75% C, 21% P ?
Surely not.
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bangordub said:
OK,
I’m crunching the numbers now from the primary source.
Primary figures are:
Protestant Catholic Others Total enrolment % Protestant % Catholic % Others
59158 83509 22145 164812 36% 51% 13%
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bangordub said:
Secondary figures:
Protestant Catholic Others Total enrolment % Protestant % Catholic % Others
56677 75891 14179 146747 39 52 10
Correction accepted thanks 🙂
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Londoner said:
By the way – I am sure I read that Horseman was brought up in the Protestant faith but became atheist. He would be considered one of those Protestant Nationalists! I wonder what percentage of the “Protestant” community are Nationalist?
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bangordub said:
Good point Londoner,
Horseman was indeed brought up in the protestant faith.
True Republicanism is not, nor should ever be, a matter of religious faith. It is about equality as citizens. As you may be aware many Republicans are or were protestants, whether practicing or not.
In answer to your question, I have no definite answer. I suspect it is on a par, at least with the famed Unicorns( Catholic Unionists). It is probably more. Good Question though.
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alphiedale said:
there would seem to be way more Catholic pro-union mindsets than nationalist protestants. Spotlight poll seems to indicate this.
Out of all my wide circle of friends workmates and acquaintances I can’t think of 1 pro-all-Ireland protestants. But there a right few pro-union or pro-Northern Ireland Catholics.
Despite the best endeavours of the DUP Northern Irish-ism (that is, pride in Northern Ireland within a soft union) in my opinion is to some significant degree or other , advancing. This involves a complete rejection of loyalist and republican positions. It really is the only way forward for a stable Northern Ireland.
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bangordub said:
Ah yes, the Unicorns!
Never met one myself or seen any evidence of them in voting patterns but, as Robbo assures us all they are out there….
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anewdawn said:
Such a quiet bunch these unicorns. We never hear from them outside of opinion polls which is strange considering they’re supposed to exist in such large numbers.
The NILT and BBC surveys are interesting when you consider the questions they don’t ask.
Would you like to see an end to the partition of Ireland?
Does Britain/London have a right to govern any part of Ireland?
Should Ireland be a free and independent country?
Instead the questions/options are always about the future of NI and seem skewed towards a favourable answer.
The BBC Spotlight option “Northern Ireland to be joined with the Republic of Ireland outside of the United Kingdom” feels very contrived. Since when did NI become un-joined from the ROI and why add outside of the UK. Almost as if they’re telling you it would be a bad thing.
Its similar to the Northern Irish identity on the census now being exploited solely by Unionists and Alliance type. I know several people who ticked that box and wouldn’t have considered doing so an interpretation of them being anything other than Irish or in anyway a political statement or deisre to live under the Union Jack.
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kalista63 said:
I mentioned on FJH’s blog by protestant brother in law is an Irish speaking, natioalist “prod” from the Donegall Road. He also has friends of the late 60’s who are akin to him and it’s a movement of people from a unionist background who got heavily in to all things Irish.
I also have younger friends from the same background who would also be nationalist. Only based on my personal excuse, I’m guessing they are a sleeper group and it would be impossible to know how many of them there are.
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bangordub said:
It’s an interesting point and worth exploring. Personally I know more than a few
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kalista63 said:
I’ll need to have a chat with my brother in law and sister. They’re way older than me but I’ve vague memories of their set. Certainly, there was a big movement of aware Protestants in QUB. The nearest in my set were the Protestants who used to join us, in the students union, in the pro hunger strikers demonstrations, during one of which I had a ding dong with the First Minister :-
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bangordub said:
Now there’s a tale worth telling……..
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alphiedale said:
I was up in Londonderry couple weeks ago and asked a Catholics friends family if they knew of any members of a branch of my family who were booted out during the ‘exodus’ (ethnic cleansing of Protestants from the cityside in the 70’s) The response startled me at how anti-IRA my friends family were, anti-McGuiness, called it a shame on the city and in an ironic nod to this topic said there was no way they’d want the city side to be ceded to the ROI, they did however moan at L’Derry being overlooked in favour of Belfast I said we stood aside to let you have the UK city of culture unchallenged
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bangordub said:
Lol 🙂
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alphiedale said:
u have to meet my mate to believe him btw, now I understand where he gets it from. Don’t want to say too much lest I give him away but he goes to Northern Ireland games, supports celtic (and rangers when they (used) to play in Europe), frequents hardline pubs either side of the peaceline and has friend in both, and well I’d love to tell more but its just too unique
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Ceannaire said:
Hiya alphiedale, I’m very interested in this “ethnic cleansing of Protestants from the cityside.”
Do tell.
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Political Tourist said:
What i do see coming long before a UI is a NI with a non unionist majority up at Stormont.
Lets face it, a NI set up to be a “protestant parliament for a protestant people” would look a bit silly with a clear non unionist majority.
Personally, i blame the schools.
And oh, the APNI.
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Crow said:
I used to be a repartitionist but I am over it now. 🙂 That said, I think that in the event of a United Ireland, there would still need to be some type of jurisdictional separation or federal arrangement implemented. Perhaps an Orange Free State of East Ulster, where you can march 365 days a year!
One correction to the posting; Belfast City Council has 51 seats not 49 and the split is N 24, U 21, and Alliance 6.
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Londoner said:
In my opinion I would say that there are a lot more Catholic Unionists than Protestant Nationalists simply due to the fact that that is the status quo. People need to be persuaded to change things constitutionally – people are scared of change. I have no evidence to support this, however the surveys and census seems to suggest that a greater number of Catholics are “happy” with being just Northern Irish – i.e. the status quo – well that is my reading of those stats for what it is worth. We hear from the DUP that “many” or even a “majority” of Catholics are Pro-Union – I think that that is very wishful thinking – and IF they are right about that – then they are a very more likely to be a “soft” Pro-Union – people who will vote with their pockets perhaps – will vote UI if the economics benefits are clear for them to see
I suppose the big question I am getting at is what percentage of the population needs to be Catholic (assuming we continue to vote along old traditional tribal lines) before a UI would win a referendum?
If 10% of Catholics vote Pro-Union and 5% of Protestants vote Pro-UI then it will need to be around a 55% Catholic majority before a 50% + 1 would be achieved. It is about winning the hearts and minds of the other side.
I suspect like in any country a large proportion of people will vote with their pockets and as a consequence of the South’s economic position we may be closer to 20-25% of Catholics voting Pro-Union these days in any border vote.
On the Protestant Nationalists versus Unionist Catholics percentages question – we may never know – however, I seem to have heard of many more famous Protestant Nationalists than Catholic Unionists – I think Horseman did a list at some point.
One classic example of this is Eddie Irvine’s quote “But at the end of the day, I’m Irish. I mean, I’ve got a British passport, but if you’re from Ireland, north or south, you’re Irish. And ‘British’ is. . . such a nondescript thing, isn’t it?”
Of course that doesn’t necessarily mean that Eddie Irvine would vote for a UI – does it? Oh how complicated it has become…
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Political Tourist said:
One thing for sure.
Pro union Catholics won’t be supporters of the Fleg, Bonfire and Parade scene.
Until such times there is a UI then everybody including political parties are unionist.
Be a strange NI when the Army Council is picking their man for first First Minister.
A NI where the Orangeman finds himself asking the papists for permission to hold a parade.
It’s a funny old world.
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sammymcnally said:
When is a Nationalist who votes for SF and the SDLP really a Nationalist who will vote for a UI in spite of the likelyhood of a deterioration in his economic circumstances?
I suspect(unfortunately) that Fenian allegiance to the NHS etc may outweigh the aspiration of a UI for a minority of ;nominal; Nationalists – what size that minority is unclear but the suspicion remains that having a border poll would be dangerous and damaging for ‘proper’ Nationalist to entertain.
With Unionism seemingly unable to cope with the declining support (unoffical)joint authority is looking like a possibilty again and probably the most sensible way out of the descent back in to violence.
The Haas initative looks like a mechanism for simply kicking the sectarian can down the road. Any new parades commision is likley to have former IRA personnel on it rather than former members of the security forces – difficult to see Stormo surviving the fallout its failure as the countdown then starts to another marching season.
(Unofficial) Joint Authority will suit Nats (nominal and proper) reasonably well in the short to medium term.
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anewdawn said:
We’re told by Unionists what a disaster our economy would be in a UI just like Scotland if they vote independence. If this is true why is the English taxpayer willing to pay for the upkeep of others when it could be better spent improving the health service of their own country. Whats the benefits for them in the union if its all about economics?
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bangordub said:
A thought for you anewdawn,
Pre-partition Belfast and its hinterland was the economic engine room of Industrial Ireland.
That worked out well didn’t it?
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benmadigan said:
Nice to see you agree with what I wrote in “interim-joint-sovereignty-the-only-option”
http://eurofree3.wordpress.com/2013/08/15/
I hope you also enjoy” interim-joint-sovreignty-an-outrageous-idea”
http://eurofree3.wordpress.com/2013/08/17/
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Political Tourist said:
Would joint sovereignty work if Scotland breaks up the Union.
No Scotland then no UK.
Unionist heads would go down if the Scots leave.
Not unlike the SDLP heads going down if the UK left the EU.
That would leave the SDLP looking stupid.
A Europe of the Regions.
You need to be in it to win it as the UK lottery advert states.
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theguarantor said:
1911 2011
% % plus minus
Derry 48.85 56.64 7.79
Derry(City ) 56.2 72.83 16.63
Derry(County) 41.5 51.24 9.74
Antrim 20.5 30.3 9.8
Tyrone 55.4 64.66 9.26
Fermanagh 56.2 59.11 2.91
Belfast 24.1 48.58 24.48
Armagh 45.3
Down 31.6 The table above shows percentage makeup of Catholics in the 6 counties in a comparison of the two census results to show what a difference 100 years makes. 2011 total calculated by adding total % in each council areas divided by number of councils in county to give a rough estimate. Unfortunately am unfamiliar with wards in Armagh and Down so this is left incomplete. I would welcome any input or correction.
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bangordub said:
theguarantor,
Thanks for that, interesting stuff,
Can I ask what was your source for the 1911 figures?
Also to clarify, did you base the 2011 figures on a ward analysis?
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theguarantor said:
I have to correct some details in my table in regards to County Derry.
For Derry City in 2011 the numbers raised as Catholic was 74.83% and an increase of 18.63% since 1911. Which causes a slight underestimation.
and finally the 2011 total for the entire county was therefore 57.14% which was an increase of 8.29% in the same timeframe.
I apologise for the error and hope not have drawn the ire of my compatriots there.
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Ormeau said:
Guarantor,
Is the Antrim figure just the rural part of Antrim that doesnt include North and West Belfast? There is only about 40000 of difference in the 2011 figures then it wouldn’t surprise if both the Catholic population in Antrim and Down are up in the 40-45 percent mark. when you consider that the protestant population of the other 4 is 35-45 percent with these counties having much smaller populations then it would seem to suggest a large catholic minority in both counties.
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theguarantor said:
http://www.sneps.net/wp-content/uploads/2011/12/1-Dominant-Ethnicity-demography-and-conflict_revision-Dec2010.pdf Figure 1 on page 7 shows proportion of Protestants per county between 1881-1971. I just inverted the % for 1911. In regards to 2011 no I did not base on a ward analysis but on the released figures by council area.
As an example of how I got my back of jotter estimate, total the % for the councils in Tyrone and divide by their number 4. The oversight in my numbers is to elaborate that the council boundaries breech the county line in Armagh/Down, hence their omission. A ward analysis would be an exact science compared to my calculations.
I never saw anywhere an attempt to show Ulster’s Doomed using the county demographics before so I thought to give it a go.
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bangordub said:
Many thanks,
That is a fascinating document. I’ll give it a good read tomorrow.
Obviously due to the many boundary revisions since 1911 it is difficult to extend to the present but hey, lets give it a go 😉
As the County boundaries were the original measures it makes sense to attempt a direct comparison. I think Ward boundaries are the way to go to be honest as current council boundaries are all over the place. Time consuming but hopefully accurate.
I will, of course, include Down and Armagh.
Do you have any further information as to the above document?
Adds: ( OK I stayed up to read that- well worth it)
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theguarantor said:
Unfortunately not.
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bangordub said:
I believe this may be the author:
Eric Kaufmann
Former Research Fellow, Initiative on Religion in International Affairs/International Security Program, 2008–2009
Current Affiliation: Reader in Politics and Sociology, Birbeck, University of London, London, United Kingdom
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Endgame said:
Interesting stuff. There is no doubt that demographic change has caused a crisis within Unionism. It has also created a sense of denial as they long for the return of the Orange state. This denial was evident from cries that the Union Jack was “thorn down’ from BCH. The reality is it was voted down after Unionism refused to compromise. Unionism is incapable of compromise and this is why the Haas talks will fail. When it becomes accepted by the British Government in particular that the deadlock is due to Unionisms “not an inch” mantra and inclination to veto every policy supported by Nationalists, joint authority could well be on the table again.Interesting stuff.
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carrickally said:
Whilst demographic change is prompting a crisis amongst those who can’t see the bigger picture in Unionism (and conversely leading to more wet seats than a Michael Buble concert amongst the more reality-challenged Republicans), those who don’t equate religion- or lack of- with political identity or national ideology can see the massive opportunity that exists.
As a banner at the Irish Cup Final summed up our sporting heritage succinctly “They said our days were over,” so Unionism’s days are very much bright – just not Orange anymore.
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Herts said:
Unionism’s day’s are indeed very much bright thanks to a Catholic ascendancy but Loyalist’s days are only going to get worse by each passing year. Having been brought up on a diet of “we are better then them’uns” by the protestant ruling elite for decades if not centuries is going to be impossible for protestant die hards to accept a shared NI, e.g. the flag joke. The trickle to the “mainland” will go from a trickle to a flood.
Some interesting figures of protestant population falls in Belfast (and startling catholic population rises) here
http://belfastmediagroup.com/close-up-census-figures-are-revealing-2/
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Endgame said:
http://www.endgameinulster.blogspot.ie/2013/08/why-is-unionism-in-crisis.html?m=1
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