I’m going to start rolling out some figures over the next few weeks. To start with I am looking here at the Top and Bottom 3 most Catholic areas and doing a direct comparison with the age profiles of those LGD’s. I have also included Belfast and the whole of NI figures for comparison.
The correllations are startling. The age profiles in the least catholic areas are much older than the average while the reverse is also true. The three most catholic constituencies are also the youngest.
Below are the actual numbers in percentage terms that I have used for the graph above:
| Top 3 Catholic Pop | 0-17 | 18- 44 | 45 – 100 | |
| Newry and Mourne | 79.37 | 26.71 | 37.80 | 35.49 |
| Derry | 74.83 | 25.69 | 38.33 | 35.98 |
| Omagh | 70.34 | 25.97 | 36.70 | 38.09 |
| Bottom 3 Catholic Pop | ||||
| North Down | 13.53 | 20.83 | 33.67 | 45.50 |
| Ards | 12.68 | 22.12 | 33.37 | 44.52 |
| Carrickfergus | 9.56 | 22.61 | 34.60 | 42.82 |
| Belfast | 48.58 | 21.19 | 41.78 | 37.03 |
| Northern Ireland | 45.14 | 23.79 | 37.23 | 38.98 |
It may be argued that the 0-17 age group are tomorrows voters, the 45+ cohort are the most active voters currently and the 18 to 44 group is the one having the most babies! As may be seen above, and I know it is a snapshot, it is the majority Catholic areas which are clearly growing in population and have a much younger age profile. That trend is likely to accellerate in the years ahead as there is a clear bias in the child bearing category.
The only question in my mind is the effects of emigration, immigration and political indifference in the years ahead
"We in coming days may be" 
Bangordub, its seems to me that no cognisance as been taken of demographics by the Boundary Commission for the proposed new councils. For instance Lisnasharragh in SE Belfast must have an aging demograph and in all likelihood it’s electorate will fall greatly in the next 15 years, yet despite already being -8.6% below the electorate average it is allocated 6 seats. Then look at Colin already +4.6% above the electorate average and containing Lagmore and Poleglass which must be both 40%+ under 18 and very low percentage of pensioners. So if we go by past boundaries we’ll have Colin and Lisnasharragh set in stone but in about 15 years we’ll have electorates of 30,000 and 17,000 respectively both electing 6 councillors. Then we have the huge young demographs in Armagh/Craigavon/Newry and Mourne v’s the aging demographs of LIsburn and North Down but all the new councils will elect the same number of councillors. Surely the new CAB council can be allocated 49 and Newry&East Down 45 to compensate for this discrepancy.
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Mekonged,
That’s an interesting point. I don’t believe the age profile of an area is a point of consideration for the boundary commission. http://www.boundarycommission.org.uk/
base their determinations on the electoral register.
Perhaps that should be reviewed?
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New post up by Enda:
http://www.endgameinulster.blogspot.ie/2013/06/census-comparison.html?m=1
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Yeah and I think it might offer hints as to the effects of migration.
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I liked your graphs Enda.
I had a look at the age profile for East European migrants – mainly catholic. There are between 1000 and 2000 per (annual) age group between 35 and 45 and this accounts for quite some of this “bulge” you see comparing the two lines.
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Link factual?
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OK Will do – this evening.
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Can you cast a by now surely wearly eye over East Antrim?
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so wearly it does not want to be weary
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Dub, if it is possible, I am curious to see the age profile in each area by community, especially in mixed areas. To illustrate: for antrim and/or craigavon (or their slated successors), do we know the # of orange/green in age groups 45 to 100, 17 to 44, 0 to 17? From the above, you would anticipate, in absolute numbers, more older oranges, more younger greens. From other blogs, the trend has been a west to east greening. It would be great to get some #s to see if (i) that trend will continue and (ii) if so how quickly. That was a request for a future post. my one critique of this post is that it involves percentages of different sized wards so it is hard to determine how significant the percentages are. thanks!
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Liburnia,
Very good questions there, thank you. Response will form my next post 😉
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Can anyone tell me what the demographic swing is in North Belfast? Ten years ago I was expecting areas like Hesketh, Weatfield, Joanmount, Premier Drive, Greymount and Ashfield areas to become far more nationalist by now. Yes I know there was a purge of nationalists in the last 90’s due to the drumcree issue but that was getting on 20 years ago. These are predominantly private housing areas where catholic’s buy there way in like they are doing in South and East belfast. Why is it not happening in the areas i’ve just mentioned?
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Joe,
I suggest you have a look at this map and zoom into the relevant wards:
http://airomaps.nuim.ie/flexviewer/?config=NICensus2011.xml
I’ll certainly look it up but cannot do it right now
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That’s a nice piece of GIS but I can’t find an indicator for the colours.
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Also, given the lack of housing development land in nationalist areas of North Belfast. Does anyone know what’s happening to the large parcel of waste land behind Mountain View. I was enquiring with some council workers of the protestant persuasion in the adjacent sports centre who said that it was “ours”. It can be accessed by Somerdale Pk (nat) and Cairnmartin Rd (Loy). You could get 150 houses on it easily.
Ditto, mid Skegoneill av/ Queen victoria gardens area of NB. That has to have scope for another 50 units.
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North Belfast Westminster Const. 2011 Census
figures (and %change from 2001)
Catholic Protestant Other None
46.94% 45.67% 1.04% 6.36%
2.94% -7.02% 0.59% 3.51%
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Average Joe,
at one time there was plans for nearly 200 units but in the end they have agreed about 25/30 units. Lots of surplus housing in Brownfield or Greenfields sites in the greater Shankill but no real demand for big projects that would be in the 100s of units. The council worker was right about it being ‘theirs’. If it was based on objective need or demand then it would be opened up to make use of the site for both sides of the community.
QVG is a tricky one in that there plans that are private for flats on what once was a bar and social units that they are building also. The feelings among Loyalists is that they are under pressure there and they don’t want to see that area turn greener like Dunlambert, Parkside have.
They have plans released for 31 houses in the old new lodge barracks which is good news. From that interactive map what struck me was the small size of some of these communities. Westland around 300 Prods, Lower Oldpark 500 odd, Tigers bay around the 1500 mark. You could easily have 300/400 extra houses in those areas but you would find it very difficult to find that many Prods on the North Belfast waiting list.
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And yet in the next constituency, the NIHE say that there are only 22 lettable vacant properties. Something’s certainly rotten in the state of Denmark, if East Antrim is running at full and yet Prods aren’t willing to go to NB. I wonder is gangsterism in those areas the primary concern – do decent people not want to move their families or themselves into UDA-controlled areas?
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Carrickally,
Gangsterism plays a role in these area’s particularly the Lower Oldpark that looks like a sink estate and you would have to be desperate to want to move there.
Could it be that they is feeling of retreat amongst the loyalists in Belfast and that Carrick no matter what would always be PUL?
Fighting on both sides of the divide that makes for an unhappy environment to bring children up in.
A sense of the change in a city that at its core in1970 was 70 percent Protestant but is now heading towards being 50-40 in Catholic but most WC Protestant areas are still as they were in the 1970s bur with far less people.
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I know QVG well, I lived there before it was bulldozed. According to the census Catholics made up 38% of the population of QVG and Fortwilliam Pde. Surely the planned 22 homes to be built should go to Nationalists given the sizeable existing catholic population and the shortage of housing in traditionally nationalist areas.
BTW, given your name is Ormeau I’m guessing you have knowledge of that area of Belfast. I always wondered how the majority nationalist streets of Upper Ormeau put up with a major UDA club in the middle of them.
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I think they might try and make the housing mixed if they could which is in keeping of the way it was in the last census. The NIO has an interest in keeping soft interfaces turning hard if they can. If they build in the large amount of car parks sites around Sailortown/ New Lodge they can make a real dent in the waiting list.
Upper Ormeau when you discount Rosetta is about 50/50 when you include Annadale Flats/Green. There is no real republican activists that I can see in the Upper Ormeau which is very different to over the bridge. Also the Orange Hall/ ABOD band hall in that area attract loyalists from Belviour, Newtonbreda etc.
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Should be fun when these are allocated. An opportunity for integrated housing…if the will exists.
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Where could this be? The Kimberly Bar shut years ago.
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Ormeau, you’re absolutely right. My in-laws lived on Manor St until the late 80’s. The peacewall went up, they moved to N’Abbey.
On my dad’s side, there’s a history of shifting around Belfast – Pound, Grosvenor Rd, Lower Ormeau, Whiteabbey. A bit of a pattern developing, I think his family were the advance guard of republican ethnic cleansing!
As you say about most WC PUL areas, they are either the same size or slightly smaller, Tiger’s Bay for example is only the size it is because of the walls up to define the area, inside these it’s a hollow shell.
Of course, the Shankill is the prime area of investigation, or at least it should be. A population decimated by redevelopment, displaced (damned Linfield refugees in the beautiful East!) populations that were not brought back to the area but scattered. It would be good if the issues around the redevelopment were looked at fully, and hopefully some academic will start to do that. It’s the viewpoint that the lower Falls was redeveloped with much of the population kept at the behest of the parish authorities. This was accepted by the NIHT and Stormont because it kept them in situ. Nothing like this happened a couple of hundred metres north.
Belfast is bigger than the BCC area, I think we all accept that. Poleglass and Lagmore are considered to be Belfast by most, as are Rathcoole and Braniel but yet all are outside the current boundaries.
Even a blow in like me in Carrick feels more a citizen of the big smoke than one of the oldest chartered town in these parts.
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The most striking “hollowed out” PUL district has to be Lower Oldpark. There has been so much housing levelled and put to seed that it looks more like the great American prairies than an inner city area. where catholic housing is rammed up against one side of the peace wall on the other side there are acres and acres of grass land where there was hundreds of Unionist housing once. Take a look on Google Maps. Even since those photo’s were taken more housing has been boarded up or knocked completely.
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The lower Oldpark is nearly getting to the stage of becoming unsustainable as a community but it will be a hell of a fight for any Catholics to move into that area. If that area turned green and the Old Dunnes supermarket site was sold for housing then the Shankill would be totally enclosed on both sides. If he gets to perhaps 50/100 people then the NIO may try to bribe the remaining residents to move but that will be resisted by McCausland and his fellow DUPers.
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Carrickally,
I think areas such as Tullycarnet, Merok, lagmore, Poleglass are now part of the new BCC so I feel it is going in the right direction. Unsure about the lower falls as I was under the impression that the lower falls population was down now at 5000 from a pre troubles population of 25000. The reality of a Greater Shankill population of 75000 was never sustainable in the longer term. Remember this was the sixties with T.Vs Holidays abroad and the beginning of a proper consumer society. An outside toilet in the hammer was never going to be enough. The troubles made the situation worse but I think similar areas of Dublin, Liverpool, London etc would have suffered similar population declines
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That’s very true, the 60’s really is the great revolutionary period – not just in terms of politics but, more importantly, in popular and widespread Western culture. The move towards gratification began then, and bungalows, cars and trips led us to the place the USA was in a decade or more before.
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FF,
I think he might be confusing the ABOD club with the KImberley Bar although I don’t think the crowd who drink in the ABOD are half as rough.
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A better class of bigot? Overlapping clientele I’d hazard.
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