I’m going to start rolling out some figures over the next few weeks. To start with I am looking here at the Top and Bottom 3 most Catholic areas and doing a direct comparison with the age profiles of those LGD’s. I have also included Belfast and the whole of NI figures for comparison.

The correllations are startling. The age profiles in the least catholic areas are much older than the average while the reverse is also true. The three most catholic constituencies are also the youngest.

Age and BackgroundBelow are the actual numbers in percentage terms that I have used for the graph above:

Top 3 Catholic Pop 0-17 18- 44 45 – 100
Newry and Mourne 79.37 26.71 37.80 35.49
Derry 74.83 25.69 38.33 35.98
Omagh 70.34 25.97 36.70 38.09
Bottom 3 Catholic Pop
North Down 13.53 20.83 33.67 45.50
Ards 12.68 22.12 33.37 44.52
Carrickfergus 9.56 22.61 34.60 42.82
Belfast 48.58 21.19 41.78 37.03
Northern Ireland 45.14 23.79 37.23 38.98

It may be argued that the 0-17 age group are tomorrows voters, the 45+ cohort are the most active voters currently and the 18 to 44 group is the one having the most babies! As may be seen above, and I know it is a snapshot, it is the majority Catholic areas which are clearly growing in population and have a much younger age profile. That trend is likely to accellerate in the years ahead as there is a clear bias in the child bearing category.

The only question in my mind is the effects of emigration, immigration and political indifference in the years ahead