I am indebted to a regular reader (Faha) who has kindly collated the Ward information into the Westminster constituencies. I am sure some of you will be very interested in the results as set out below. I have presented the information as simply as possible with the 2011 results and the percentage change since 2001 below.
The highlights?
North Belfast without doubt is going to be a knife edge battle at the next election. The swing is around 10% in ten years from protestant to catholic population although in common with every other constituency the rise in those of “none” must be factored in. East Belfast is particularly striking in it’s changes. An 11.6% drop in the protestant population is a huge figure.
Lagan Valley too is very interesting. A 15% swing requires some further analysis.
Every constituency recorded an increase in “Other” and “None”. The Protestant percentage declined in every constituency except West Belfast! The Catholic percentage rose in every constituency with the exceptions of West Belfast, South Down, Newry and Foyle, all overwhelmingly nationalist areas. This suggests to me that a large proportion of the “None” designation may, in fact, be nationalists.
If, at the next general election, Alliance hold onto East Belfast and Nigel is defeated in North Belfast we would be looking at 9 Nationalist seats, 1 Alliance, 1 Independent and 7 Unionist.
| Catholic | Protestant | Other | None | |
| East Belfast | 12.70% | 75.40% | 1.44% | 10.47% |
| 5.16% | -11.64% | 1.02% | 5.47% | |
| North Belfast | 46.94% | 45.67% | 1.04% | 6.36% |
| 2.94% | -7.02% | 0.59% | 3.51% | |
| South Belfast | 44.01% | 43.65% | 2.80% | 9.54% |
| 3.00% | -8.98% | 1.36% | 4.62% | |
| West Belfast | 79.96% | 16.63% | 0.61% | 2.81% |
| -2.72% | 0.47% | 0.30% | 1.94% | |
| East Antrim | 20.39% | 70.11% | 0.97% | 8.53% |
| 0.55% | -5.19% | 0.59% | 3.92% | |
| Lagan Valley | 19.28% | 71.82% | 0.97% | 7.94% |
| 5.25% | -9.52% | 0.58% | 3.69% | |
| Strangford | 17.28% | 73.13% | 0.94% | 8.65% |
| 0.61% | -5.69% | 0.61% | 4.42% | |
| South Antrim | 31.86% | 59.80% | 0.87% | 7.46% |
| 3.75% | -7.78% | 0.49% | 3.51% | |
| North Down | 12.59% | 74.44% | 1.15% | 11.83% |
| 0.92% | -7.20% | 0.63% | 5.65% | |
| South Down | 69.26% | 26.85% | 0.52% | 3.36% |
| -0.35% | -1.82% | 0.37% | 1.80% | |
| Newry & Armagh | 66.36% | 30.59% | 0.55% | 2.50% |
| -0.80% | -1.24% | 0.41% | 1.63% | |
| Upper Bann | 42.87% | 51.01% | 0.89% | 5.23% |
| 0.00% | -3.66% | 0.46% | 3.20% | |
| North Antrim | 28.39% | 66.03% | 0.74% | 4.84% |
| 1.04% | -4.24% | 0.52% | 2.79% | |
| Foyle | 75.12% | 22.02% | 0.79% | 2.07% |
| -0.53% | -0.86% | 0.42% | 0.96% | |
| East Derry | 41.70% | 53.27% | 0.68% | 4.35% |
| 1.65% | -3.97% | 0.34% | 1.98% | |
| Fermanagh | 57.69% | 39.10% | 0.61% | 2.60% |
| 2.11% | -3.95% | 0.35% | 1.48% | |
| West Tyrone | 67.98% | 30.16% | 0.40% | 1.47% |
| 0.18% | -1.10% | 0.20% | 0.72% | |
| Mid Ulster | 66.72% | 30.78% | 0.44% | 2.06% |
| 1.46% | -2.94% | 0.31% | 1.18% |
"We in coming days may be" 
Alliance have no chance of holding EB. Even before the flag protest, this was always a seat going back to the DUP.
LikeLike
You may be right but I have my doubts. Naomi is one of the few politicians to emerge with any credit from recent events
LikeLike
Interesting one!
LikeLike
The Alliance will probably gain votes from the nationalist parties and lose votes to the unionist parties as a result of their actions in recent weeks.
LikeLike
Though its so long to next election that this may have been forgotten about.
LikeLike
Next Westminster elections could have loads of unity candidates as Robsons poodle Nesbitt will continue to obey his master. The one problem is will any of them work
FST will be even harder to regain as the unionist population decreases and will they find anyone better than Conor – I doubt it
NB – May work but to my surprise Kelly is becoming quite an articulate politician and may actually borrow enough SDLP and green Alliance votes after all especially after Dodds behaviour over the summer.
SB – McDonnell should be safe plenty of Alliance and SF votes to back him up
EB – Might turn into a mini referendum regarding the flag policy at BCC. Pretty sure a unity candidate would beat Naomi but hopefully enough nationalist and moderate unionists vote to save her seat
ND – Pretty sure Sylvia has this seat for as long as she wants it. The DUP alternative Weir isnt fit to clean her shoes
Thats it UB and East L’Derry are still safe for the moment but maybe 10 years time could be in play.
No need for any other unity candidates but we have already seen what is happening in Mid Ulster and beyond all logic a unity candidate seems likely – still waiting for an explanation as to why.
LikeLike
I suspect that SDLP in Foyle and South Down are vulnerable; in Derry Raymond McCartney is doing a good job and voters may turn from Mark Durkan to him. In South Down Margaret Ritchie’s star may well be on the wane and Caitriona Ruane could well benefit.
In South Antrim the UUP if they fielded Danny de Burgh Kinahan (relative of the lady in red singer!) could make decent inroads into Alliances vote and take the seat from McCrea. In Strangford Mike Nesbitt will be hoping to make inroads into the DUP’s vote share.
Greens will be hoping to increase vote share in East Belfast after the profile their candidate will get in the Euro elections, though they are really going for an Assembly seat here. Naiomi Long is certainly toast there but UUP have no obvious candidate so Gavin Robinson (current mayor) is sitting pretty (in more senses than one – quite a looker!)
LikeLike
I have noticed that Danny Kinahan likes to attack Alliance as “the poodles”. They are quite strong in his consttituency so he stands to benefit from the fall out from the flag issue.
LikeLike
Foyle and South Down may be in play but for 3 things, first of all these areas are still SDLP heartland, secondly unionists will help the SDLP if in danger and thirdly the SF candidates in these areas are generally very poor. I mean Margaret Ritchie is truly awful on so many levels and yet destroyed Ruane at the Westminster election because Ruane is an even bigger disaster, tactical unionist voting aside it was still a battering. Any decent SF candidate could challenge. SF need to clear out alot of the rot and I have argued this before they need to start clearing out all the old ra men with baggage and start to promote fresh faces and for gods sake get rid of Gerry as leader and promote Doherty or McDonald. Do these things and the SF vote will start to rise again. Dont do these things and the SDLP might finally get their act together and start gaining votes themselves.
South Antrim is basically a toss of a coin and the UUP should have won it last time apart from the fact that Reg has the sex/vote appeal of a brick. Mike Nesbitt has no chance and continues to amaze me. When he was made leader I was truly expecting a liberal media savvy leader, boy how wrong was I – he is a PR disaster and is trying to out orange the TUV with the obvious result of the impending implosion of the UUP. His only chance is if Robbo throws him the Strangford scrap as payment for standing aside elsewhere.
Greens will hopefully make inroads as I think another middle of the road party will be good for politics here. Naomi as stated is facing difficulties and a unity candidate will beat her but Im still hoping for some minor miracle as it would stick 2 fingers up at the protestors and the idiots (DUP/UUP) who circulated those infamous leaflets
LikeLike
I suspect that SDLP in Foyle and South Down are vulnerable
That’s still wishful thinking on Sinn Féin’s part at this point. They may have had a shot in Derry but their strongest candidate has been shipped off to Brussels.
LikeLike
Toyal nonsense.
LikeLike
For the purpose of Assembly elections:
1 seat = 14.29%
2 seats = 28.57%
3 seats = 42.86%
4 seats = 57.14%
5 seats = 71.43%
6 seats = 85.71%
LikeLike
Fear,
I am very interested in those percentages and it would be interesting to apply them to other elections. May I ask are they valid?
LikeLike
I can field this one,
yes they are valid. The formula is: 1 certain quota = 1 / (Total no. of seats +1)
i.e. An AV election is essentially STV were the Total no of seats is one. So 1/(1+1) = 50% + 1 vote where no one can catch you.
In our 6 seat elections you need 1/7th+1 to guarantee a seat. As if 6 people get 1/7th +1 vote the absolute maximum a seventh candidate can get is (1/7th – 6) votes.
Those percentages therefore are 1/7, 2/7, 3/7 and so on. That’s why Nicholas Whyte plays fantasy assembly with the numbers of other elections like westminster. As he understands how the quotas work. Its also the reason why in a constituency like Upper Bann, 42.86% is the target rather than 50% to have 3 nationalists and 3 unionists elected : Its not your 3rd man, competing with their 3rd man; it’s your 3rd man competing with their fourth…
LikeLike
Do these figures assume perfect balancing and very high transfer rates between cadidates of the same party?
LikeLike
Factual,
It has nothing to do with transfers and balancing. It is stating the raw point at which any candidate, regardless of personal vote or transfers received, is guaranteed election. Of course, balancing and transfers come in once a party starts competing for more seats. The analysis is still accurate. Certainly, the DUP in upper bann agree as they were happy to give the UUP balancing advice and suggested they only run 2 candidates rather than 3 in order to protect a unionist seat frombeing lost to SF.
LikeLike
Interesting pattern: the heavily nationalist seats show drops (or negligible increases) in % Catholic (and this is by “religion brought up in”!).
LikeLike
Factual,
the factor of irreligion becoming more prevalent in the Catholic community and the large number of young Catholics from the West and the South of the North in Australia/NZ/America etc
LikeLike
Do you think that in Derry there is differential emigration – greater proportion of Catholics emigrating than others? If not then it is the factor of irreligion as you put it.
LikeLike
It is emigration of young people from rural areas due to the economic depression. If you think West Tyrone or Newry and Armagh are secularising like south Dublin you can dream on. South Belfast maybe – but then Catholics are on the rise there.
LikeLike
Could be, though of course that would require a differential emigration rate, i.e. Catholic people more likely to emigrate than non Catholic from each of the constituencties in question.
LikeLike
Emigration effects mainly younger people. Do I need to tell you that young people in poorer border areas are 1. disproportionately Catholic 2. unlikely to be concerned about the lack of availability of gay marriage?
LikeLike
Hi Fear
Interesting. I wonder if the differential emigration rate explains it; in Connaught (which may be thought a remote area in general similar to some parts of the six counties) there is a similar phenomenon with the proportion of the population that is Catholic went from 90% to 87% between 2006 and 2011 censuses. The non catholics there are not just protestants but also no-religion people and they probably don’t have a very much ‘older’ profile than Catholics) so I wonder if differential emigration really explains this either in Connaught or other Northern and Western parts.
LikeLike
There really is no point talking to you. I repeat: what age are you?
LikeLike
Hi Factual,
In answer to your question, yes, there should be a bigger differential of young people emigrating than the elderly. 1. The elderly may usually have fewer liabilities and a set income, and conversely 2. The young, of which I am one, need to make money while the sun shines and for that reason I am in Brisbane working with 3 other Irish guys in an insurance company, the intake was 18 and everyone asked ‘why are there so many of you here?!’ 3. The young in the North are mostly Catholic, hence why it may disproportionately effect them. Further, as FF has noted, rural areas are devoid of employment opportunities for the young at the moment.
LikeLike
…..of course the Holyland is famously full of young culchies getting full.
LikeLike
Mark Durkan made a very clear speech in favour of Gay Marriage in the House of Commone, Westminster. Well done Mark.
LikeLike
I wonder if there will be a back-lash against the DUP with all their jejeune contribution “it was Adam and Eve not Adam and Steve” to the Westminster debate which is currently being ridiculed by twitterati.
LikeLike
An MP has tweeted: Stephen Williams MP @swilliamsmp “Brave and principled of Mark Durkan MP to speak in favour of #SameSexMarriage He must have more Catholic constituents than all of us.”
LikeLike
A key issue in Derry.
LikeLike
Agreed. There has reportedly been quite a series of complaints of homophobic attacks up there in Derry, so this does send out a positive message from their MP. A sense of “moving on”. That said, gay marriage is devolved so the importance for local constituencts in the gay community is more in terms of the moral support shown by Mark Durkan in making this speech.
LikeLike
I see that the DUP MPs & Sylvia Hermon voted against gay marriage Mark Durkan & Naomi Long supported it
LikeLike
Of course Factual….,mcCartney could never make the speech Durkan made so why congratulate Durkan when you think McCartney would do a better job.
LikeLike
Credit where credit due.
LikeLike
Factual, what age are you, if you don’t mind me asking?
LikeLike
Do people think that as catholics are attaining greater education levels than previously, now that discrimination has been removed in education and in the work place, they are moving from deprived areas (with low house prices) to areas with higher house prices (which tend to be more protestant) and that tends to explain why high-catholic constituencies like West Belfast and Derry (and other deprived places) lost catholic share while desirable and highly affluent areas like East Belfast North Down gain them?
Another hypothesis is that with the fear-factor level gone post troubles protestants are now moving into catholic areas and catholics into protestant areas with the result that heavily protestant areas becoming more catholic and the heavily catholic areas less catholic?
Does all of this now bring a DUP seat into play in West Belfast?
LikeLike
Why don’t you tell us, seeing as you obviously know so much more about the place than those of us who ‘exist in the six-county bubble’.
Mid-twenties and full of it.
LikeLike
Factual, please tone it down. Cut the volume of comments and think before you type. I don’t want to have to edit each of your comments but I am very proud of the high quality of comments here and I will act to protect that. You come across a bit like an enthusiastic undergraduate who has a SF agenda. This is not the place.
A well thought through answer or question contributes to the conversation, OK?
LikeLike
Factual does actually have a point about a potential unionist seat again in WB (assembly). I can envisage an increase in the voter register in unionist areas but getting them out to vote in sufficient numbers will be less of a problem due to the reduction in turnouts in nationalist areas. The lack of boundary changes will have helped this cause too. If the Assembly elections were held now, I could see a further increase in DUP seats at the expense of Alliance and SF, with maybe a steadying of the UUP seat count. 2 years’ time is too far ahead to predict but the DUP have now weathered the “upset loyalist fleg protester” storm.
LikeLike
Carickally,
I am interested in where you see DUP gaining at the expense of SF, WB?
LikeLike
Yeah,
You got my attention too. West Belfast is a possibility certainly, although I put most of those non religious in Belfast and derry into the PBP, WP, SP whose transfers would mostly flow back to nationalists. That said the DUP have only one that seat once and have been some way off since.
Beyond that I’m fascinated. I can only see them losing seats. North Belfast is not 3 safe seats. A better UUP year or a strong alliance performance could take one. In South Belfast nationalists did disproportionately better out of middle ground transfers so any gain will come from the uup, but that looks unlikely. Lagan valley will return a nationalist again once their vote recovers in the areas not removed in the constituency.
Fermanagh and South Tyrone still polls better for uup at council level so there is potential for a loss to them. Certainly no gains.
I really can’t think where you are talking about beyond wishful thinking! The DUP are running at top efficiency as it is. It’s only downhill from here.
LikeLike
I think the flag issue seems to be galvanising and envigorating base unionist voters and that should see them gaining a MLA seat in West Belfast and a further one in East Belfast from Alliance (who currently have two). From what I can see there is a lot of working class people developing plans to increase voter registration and to vote unionist with greater turnout. Unionist turnout and engagement had fallen and flag protest has reenergised that base. Of course still a while off to next election so PUL galvanisation could decline before then.
LikeLike
Agree with Charlie the DUP are virtually maxed out. They may make a gain here or there but a number of seats are very vunerable. Even with reduced turnout in WB there is still just too many SF votes so a DUP gain is unlikely. EB, Alliance are vunerable in a Westminster election but they should now have a large enough base of core voters to retain 2 seats in the assembly. The big winners could be the SDLP if they could ever be bothered to sort themselves out. At the last assembly they came close in ST, SA, NA . LV could be in play again soon along with a 5th nationalist seat in SD and a 4th nationalist seat in FST wouldnt be far off looking at these figures.
LikeLike
The unionist parts of WB are Shankill, Highfield, Glencairn, Suffolk (part of Ladybrook watd) and some of Dunmurry ward. They are all declining except from Highfield which has picked up about 300 people, most of whom are Catholic.
LikeLike
Mind you, nationalist WB is exporting large amounts of people (Lisburn ‘city’ has been greening). Hardly surprising given how densely populated WB had become. Substantial drops in Upper Springfield (-650), Falls Park (-550), Andersonstown(-850), Glen Road(-300), Glencolin(-700), Kilwee (-400), Twinbrook (-400), Collin Glen (-350), Poleglass (-500).
The population of Derryaghy ward is now almost 9,500. The ward is split between Lagan Valley and WB with Lagmore, Mt Eagles etc in WB. Do you know if Faha was able to reflect this split in his calculations?
LikeLike
Derryaghy was divided into Derryaghy North ( in West Belfast ) and Derryaghy South ( Lagan Valley ). It is difficult to determine the exact figures because the Output Areas from 2001 do not perfectly match the Small Areas in the 2011 census. It appears that Derryaghy North has approximately 5,000 Catholics and 200 Protestants- demographics that are similar to any other nationalist ward in West Belfast. Derryaghy South is approximately 2,000 Catholics and 2,000 Protestants- a 50/50 split. Even if Derryaghy South has 100 fewer Catholics it would only decrease the Catholic percentage by 0.1% in Lagan Valley. Nationalist voter turnout was very low in the 2011 election- 20% in Lisburn South, 30% in Lisburn North, 30% in Downshire and 35% in Killulatagh, and that is assuming that a generous number of Catholics are voting Allliance. The real figures could even be lower .
LikeLike
Hello Faha, you seem to have alot of knowledge on Lisburn LGD. I’m just wonderin if you’d agree with me that the rise in Ballinderry’s catholic population is more from undeclareds in the last census who we’re actually Catholic now feeling more open to declare their identity.? There’s a similiar drop of undeclareds in Ballinamallard since the 2001
Census which almost exactly mirrors the Catholic rise there. I refkon protestants too in West Belfast, Ardoyne/New Lodge also felt some trepidation and thus in 2001
They’re desiginated as undeclareds/no religion. Also there’s a huge number of families of mixed religious perantage – Keiran Doherty’s mum was Protestant and my guess is that most of those Protestants in Beechmount or Ardoyne would not classify themseves as British. They may make up the 2% of Protestants which opinioon polls suggest vote SF.
LikeLike
Ballinderry ward has seen a population rise of more than 1100. Glenavy ward next door has seen a rise of almost 1400. New houses attract new people.
LikeLike
Meckonged,
I think the increase in Ballinderry is almost entirely due to in-migration from Belfast and elsewhere since there has been an increase in Catholic population in most Lisburn wards. I believe that it is a myth that people checked None for their religion in order to conceal their real religion. The census is anonymous. The school census for 2001( which is not anonymous since the school staff know the results ) showed only 664 excess ( compared to the actual 2001 census ) of those who were in the None group and that was for all of Northern Ireland. Those who are most supsicious of the census office probably refuse to return the forms.
LikeLike
Big changes afoot right across Lisburn. Westies and Polaks moving in, Brits moving back to Blighty.
LikeLike
Yes Faha, it seems incongruous to me that there could be some trepidation in accurately filling out the census, and my point doesn’t square with the school census.
Also while just searching for the 2011 figures again, I see that I was comparing the 2001 Religion question to the 2011 Religion or Religion Brought Up In question.
Interesting to see the amount of mixed marriage couples that have resided in Republican districts of Belfast. It’d be a good area of research, their experiences versus mixed couples living in Newtonards, Rathcoole etc
LikeLike
Apologies for three consecutive posts:
A brief study of the 2011 Assembly election results should demonstrate why the DUP have slim to no chance of picking up a seat in WB.
http://www.ark.ac.uk/elections/awb.htm
LikeLike
Does anyone know of a Unionist blog that’s analysed these census figures? Now, I’m no expert but with 20-25% of Downpatrick catholics classifying themselves as British – probably explains why old McGrady MP continued to prosper despite praising the RUC for shooting unarmed Vol Colin Marks – I’d say a Basil McCea led unionist entity would easily prosper in east Down, and with DUP Clogh/Kilkeel honchoes, even, voting tactically for such a lundyite, well, maybe challenge for the South Down seat. Also we have 17% of Ardoyne and 15% of New Lodge salivating over Katie and William, and 11% of the Falls Road….A republican hardliner must be wondering why they all don’t feck off and live in the empty terraces on the other end of the Donegall Road.
Ok, what I’m gleaming from these figures, and apologies to BD, but it is forlorn to continue with this religion headcountery methodology as determining when a united Ireland can/will arise. And we’ll see from the Mid Ulster by-election but I suspect that this census result will only acerbate the dwindling confidence of republicans, with a very low turnout. And I direct analysts here to examine Clogher Valley electoral division which has an Irish catholic voter majority of more than 1000 in an electorate 8800, but Unionists are getting 3 outta 5 seats. So with unionist turnouts of well into 90% well I’m predicting Arlene’s celebrating Fermanagh South Tyrone may last quite a lot longer the next time.
If there is hope for ‘republicans’ well it must come from the fact that so few ‘Catholic Unionists’ have thus far crossed the threshold to actually voting for political Unionist entities in any of the aforementioned – Oldpark Electoral Division, South Down, West Belfast – and even those residing in strongly Unionist areas as evidenced by the Life and Times Survey seem reluctant to vote for avowedly Unionist parties. But this survey also suggests that there is a segment of Protestantism that supports nationalism, the 1000 on the Shankill road, which has gotta be a more remarkable feature than the wannabe Brits of the Falls, whose Old Trafford fetish and prognostications on Westminister can be passed off as neutral appraisal.
Now I’d reckon you’ve attracted some influential commentators within nationalism here, BD, but my analysis, not very eloquent, suggests the ‘flegs’ was a stupid, almost amateurship shoot yourself in the leg moment for Unionism. But nowhere on a par with Holy Cross in 2001, but where 10 years later 17% of below the Glenbryn line now also hold a British allegiance. Republicanism needs a new internal debate, a redirection. I believe a new leadership, talking of SF, and in the week that Dolours Price died, essentially of a broken heart, for that is what the her activism entailed; an apology to the ‘pure’ republican base, that you have left behind. Together than a united Republicansim can embrace our Irish Protestant brothers.
Oh, and well done Factual, for persisting here and challenging what is almost becoming an echochamber to P.IE’s resident Catholic bigot Glenshane. The South of this island is IMHO a more crucial element to uniting this island and diminishing the 45% of Coalisland who feel Northern Irish, and I’m with you that Mary Lou or possibly even Eoin O’Broin should become SF leader, and this change must come soon.
ps Factual, tell Mary Lou and Dublin SF for Mary Lou to relocate to Dublin City Bay North.
LikeLike
Mekonged
I think you are being a tad pessimistic. Im pretty sure if the identity question was asked in a previous census we would have seen a similar variety of identities among the catholic population. When I was a kid in the 80’s I remember various polls that would have a large percentage of catholics happy to remain in the union, this is not a new phenomenon. It is also difficult to look past the fact that we do live in the UK and most catholics still carry a British passport so Im not surprised a number identify as British. The important factor for those wanting a united Ireland is that these seem people although happy at the moment are not exactly disgusted at the idea of a united Ireland either. I am against a border poll being called in the next few years as it will be an easy victory for the Union but at least it might open up the debate although note well nationalist politicians (ie Maskey on Nolan) you need to get some real ideas of how it may work, if you are serious about it you have to sell it and not just hope everyone votes for a big unknown.
Factual if you know Mary lou say hi from me she is still a looker lol
LikeLike
Thank you Mekonged for your kind words and your interesting analysis.
LikeLike
I think that Gerry will continue for a good time yet as leader but I believe Mary Lou is the person who should next lead the party. That will help in the fight against the SDLP as much as in the fight against FF and Labour.
LikeLike
Are you seriously predicting unionists to recapture Fermanagh South Tyrone?
LikeLike
85% to 90% of protestants in Fermanagh and South Tyrone ticked British, as many as 7% of Irish catholics may have ticked British also. In clogher valley despite making up 43% of the electorate they took 3 of the 5 council seats. Catholics are almost as evenly devided between Irish and Northern Irish and thus less passionate in their engagement on the nationalist question than unionists. Possibly 7000 of the catholic figure is made up of non-nationals. So Yes, Unionists can regain Bobby’s old seat!
LikeLike
The 3 out of 5 seats from 43% is probably because SF and SDLP have never been as transfer friendly with each other. The DUP and UUP could be tearing each other apart but their voters still put them 1 and 2 no matter what. Some SF and SDLP supporters would never give the other party a transfer and would probably go through every other party on the list first. The other factor as we know so well is the old vote and the young dont and again thats going to help the unionist block!
LikeLike
re: Clogher Valley
Population stats (and in 2001 Protestants made up 45.12%) do not equal electorate. Under 18s can’t vote. So unionists got one against the head there in the council election. Fair play – it happens from time to time. That’s politics. Dungannon Council is under nationalist control and that shows no sign of changing.
LikeLike
Turns out they were right to predict it, Fear!
LikeLike
This debate was settled in 2011. For good.
LikeLike
Alas, not.
LikeLike
MekongeD.
Your comments about Delores Price were ill judged and gratuitous. I would ask you to withdraw them. You are entitled to your opinions and and I welcome you expressing them but this is not the site for that type of comment. The rest of your post I have no issues with. BD
LikeLike
Not withdrawing anything. You didn’t understand my comment. RIP Dolours – One day your dream will materialise.
LikeLike
The ‘optimistic’ Nat view of the census figures has now taken a further battering as a result of the opinion poll and which also partly nails the ‘Norhern Irish’ issue.
SF position on calling for a border poll now has been shown (as predicted here and elsewhere) to be really, really silly – as evidenced by poor Alex Makey appearing on the Nolan show and having his arse tanned by Arlene.
With the South in economic crisis and most people in the North concerned about economic matters – SF think it is a good idea to have a debate about the South taking on the North?
Gerry get a fecking grip on your tricolour knickers.
LikeLike
The south is not going to be in economic crisis forever, Sammy. For so long as the union continues the north will be dependent on Britain.
LikeLike
Hi Fear
And that isn’t a good thing for the prospects of Unity. One of the themes of my contributions is that building up a case for Unity requires building up the six county economy, so that shaking off its UK membership does not come with a price attached.
LikeLike
The NI economy, what there is of it, is hopelessly dependent on Britain. This shows no sign of changing. If platitiudes had an effect Belfast would be like Singapore.
LikeLike
Hi Fear. Good post. This is the policy challenge, to reduce the dependence without reducing public services. This requires a long run supply side response, most importantly upskilling. Without this, the price-tag on a UI is very high and public services would suffer (north and south) so its a major policy priority I would argue.
LikeLike
Could you translate that into English please.
LikeLike
Hi Fear: In layperson terms NI currently has (it seems) a very large structural deficit, so a UI is costly to all, north and south as things stand. Reducing the structural deficit is therefore important in creating the conditions in which people will entertain arguments for a UI. This is the case in Scotland where there isn’t *too* much concern about Scottish deficit, and so the debate has not focussed so much on the cost in terms of tax and public services and has focussed on a range of other issues like NATO, Royal Family, Eurozone membership v Sterlingzone membership, and so on, If we can get to the point where NI is not running a large deficit then that becomes tenable. Hence building up the economy north of the border is a republican priority.
LikeLike
Pie in the sky.
LikeLike
Yes and no to your pessimistic query there, Boondock! This census should be a wake up call to zealots for a ‘United Ireland’. But the message has to be put across that this means a new Ireland and Gerry, Martin can not bring that about. And are the SDLP really serious at all to changing the status quo on this Ireland?
I don’t have a political ego for as someone of a purist or if one likes, a dissident disposition, I was disgusted with the 1998 agreement but Adams, KelIy, McGuinness, we’re in hindsight I believe correct. But since then the approach has been idiotical. There was no honesty with their base. Was this because they kept hoping that Unionists would attempt a post-Sunningdale upheaval. Anyway the lies, disrespect, machiavellism.The McCarthy murder and DEBACLE, a result of the provoes allowing heavies to remain big shots in their communities and arrest/control those of dissident disposition. The Northern Bank, to buy off the final surrender of those provies who remained loyal to the leadership. What, so it was all about a mafia, and most galling of all, Adams continued disavowal of his part as the leader of the IRA coupled with everytime the RTE quislings interviewwd them ,SF, apologizing for Republicansim instead of challenging those self-hating liberals who cared more for South Africa, Palestine, El Salvador then about their kith n’kin up the road. But and I can go on much, much more, a solely political approach was correct and no generation should ever have to go through ‘THE Troubles’ ever again.
Now the South of Ireland needs transformation. There is the stench of corruption everywhere and massive inequality. SF, have the kudos in Darndale and Mayfield, and must never forget that demograph, but simple minded economics is idiotical. The social welfare model will soon go the way of the mammoths. For southern Ireland may well soon be facing a very bleak 80s South Americanesque breakdown and further segregation of the social classes. Is their enough social solidarity to arrest this? Will emigration be the only safety valve? And will Westminsiter cuts follow for a similiar bleakness up North.
So, preempt this and lay out the vision for a new republic with a contemporary SF, unapologetic of its past, and thus unshackled from admitting sorrow at the grief that also came to The Shankill, Ballinamallard, Coagh……Unionists and tell them “we need you to transform this island’. I’m convinced that many Protestant’s will be receptacle to honesty and a new vision for this island. Scotland’s referendum, from following the debate in the comments section on-line, I believe will be a very close affair. Nationalism and pride in one’s locality is not an andiluvian pursuit. The pro independence lobby there can at least offer the intangible concept of hope. Northern Ireland can remain an anachronistic backwater, the south can remain a paddy-whackery, un-confident half-entity. Supporters of a United Ireland must challenge this failure.
LikeLike
Jude Collins makes a good point Nigel Dodds when asked on the radio this morning would he accept the result of a border poll if it went against him would not answer the question. Not very democratic of Nigel is it?
LikeLike
Will Nigel accept the result of the next North Belfast election? 😉
LikeLike
There’s a squeeze going on that will see the DUP pick up seats, not so much directly off SF but by proxy. Let me explain this in, for example, East Antrim. last time round, 4 DUP stood, 3 were elected. 2 UUP stood, 1 elected. 1 Alliance and one SF stood (along with one SDLP, iirc) and were elected. The SF result was due to low unionist turnout; if this improves, that seat goes. I can then see Alliance getting the Nat transfers to maintain their seat but that means either UUP get 2 or DUP get 4. With no change in the boundary, I’d say DUP 4 would be more likely.
Similarly, EB could see a squeeze on Alliance down to one with the changeover being to either UUP or DUP. WB I think could be on for a DUP/agreed unionist seat.
Therefore, DUP are not actually at full capacity, although pretty damned close to it.
LikeLike
Not so sure about east antrim a big chunk of the glens got shifted from North Antrim thats why SF picked up a seat here but SDLP then lost a seat in NA.
WB – its going to take a bit of luck, a unity candidate in STV is no good better to have loads of different shades of unionism to get the vote out as they will all transfer to each other anyway. Like I said they may gain here and there but they are more likely to lose a few seats you only have to look at the seat to vote ratio to realise they balanced things about as well as they could have
LikeLike
There’s only so long unionists can play the low turnout card. It was actually nationalist turnout which took a tumble last time, so we can all play that game. Whats’s not in doubt is that many unionists are sitting just above a quota from last time and many nationalists just below. That won’t be the case in the likes of Upper Bann, south down, strangford and even FST in the near future
LikeLike
Fear Feirsteach,
re. the South economic crisis. I never suggested it would continue for ever.
SF doing battle on the border poll ssue now (and embarassingly having their arses saved by Teresa the Viceroy) is the (para) military equivalent in terms of bad timing of attacking your enemy after you have run out of ammunition. Witness poor Alex on the Nolan show jabbering on about the GFA.
The loyalist flag malarkey can only keep SFs political stupidity on this issue out of the spotlight for so long.
Surely SFs worst decision post GFA – and I say that as a (at least current) supporter..
LikeLike
BD,
re. “If, at the next general election, Alliance hold onto East Belfast and Nigel is defeated in North Belfast we would be looking at 9 Nationalist seats, 1 Alliance, 1 Independent and 7 Unionist.”
That is 9 all between Nats and Unionists. Alliance are a Unionist party ie not in favour of Ui.
I appreciate you use the word ‘if’ but Naomi surely, is more likely to lose her seat than Deputy Dodsy.
Westminster is of secondary importance anyay – the key question regards what % in each constituency are Nats off winning another Stormo seat – if you are looking for something to be optimistic about I think you may find it there. Paddy Reilly over on Slugger used to have a (fairly convincing) list of vulnerable seats.
ps Optimism is a great man – but you can (unfortunately) have tooo much of a good thing.
LikeLike
It’s worth remembering that unionists still have a majority at Stormont. The political priority for nationalists should be to overturn that majority at the next Assembly elections. The figures above suggest that is achievable – with realistic possibility of gains in South Antrim, North Antrim, East Derry, Upper Bann, Lagan Valley, Stangford, South Down and Fermanagh – South Tyrone. The other priority should be the delivery of badly-needed infrastructural projects such as the A5 dual-carriageway.
LikeLike
Fear Feirsteach,
From my (cursory) look at it – I think realsitically and with a fair (Southerly) wind and no increase in relative Unionist turnout, it will take 2 more Stormo elections at a minimum.
But analysis of the % gap which needs to be narrowed in each Stormo constituency would be interesting.
LikeLike
Sammy, will work on that one, thanks
LikeLike
Fair enough Sammy,
Lets do it, but remember I’m an enthusiastic amateur, give me time
LikeLike
Most of the info is on the excellent NI Elections website
http://www.ark.ac.uk/elections/
LikeLike
Unionist presently have 55 of 108 seats so a gain of one wipes out the majority.
LikeLike
re. “The political priority for nationalists should be to overturn that majority at the next Assembly elections. ”
Unionists, based on ideology(which I was referrring to) , rather than designation includes the Alliance.
LikeLike
Maybe some of them are. I’ve noticed others saying recently on Slugger they would vote in favour of national reunification at a border-poll.
LikeLike
Click to access survey.pdf
LikeLike
Thanks Hobo,
I was interested in this and watched the programme last night, although I think there is a kind of reluctance on the part of people in surveys to declare a republican inclination. I don’t know why but it is a regular feature
LikeLike
Did anyone else notice Arlene pull a face like she just tred on dog shite every time someone else tried to talk (just a touch unprofessional) also she contradicted herself a million times regarding majority and minority seemed to have a complete difference in opinion on BCC and then Northern Ireland lol – how convenient. Danny Kennedy was also unbelievably poor I thought he was one of the better UUP politicians but he performed very badly on the night. Farry and Attwood were ok and Kelly did well considering he looked a bit foolish arguing for the poll against the hard stats presented in front of him
LikeLike
Agree with that Boondock.
I actually think the results in a real poll will surprise a few people.
LikeLike
Anyone see Mark Durkan’s contriution in the suicide debate? Very very moving.
LikeLike
12:47pm
Promissory note deal done. I await Sammys post predicting the imminent collapse of the southern economy, again 😉
LikeLike
BD,
re. “Promissory note deal done”.
I think that is likely – but dependent on ECB governing council – hopefully will go through today.
re. “predicting the imminent collapse of the southern economy, again”
Not sure I have done any predicting – rather provided a counterbalalance to those seemingly unaware of the seriouness of country’s economic problems.
LikeLike
We have a very severe debt problem and a severe unemployment problem and a lot of emigration. Aside from that everything is ok – which may sound trite but I think we have still a good productive economy, for those who remain in work. So I think the long run is ok but in the short term its a case of higher taxes and pubic spending constraints. The idea of this deal hopefully is to remove some of the risk associated with our debt. It is odd that we had to debate it in the wee small hours.
LikeLike
I have reservations about how this was rushed through. Can’t be good to vote on something this important at such short notice.
LikeLike
Can anyone think of any policy initiatives that could attract protestants back to the west bank of Derry? I was saddened to see a documentary yesterday that detailed their departure – very sad.
I think in these discussions we as republicans must not give the *impression* of hoping that protestants will decline, disappear, or go away. They are part of us, of our island, and it is a core part of our republican value system that they have the same rights as us, that they deserve full respect, and we must not give the appearance of wanting them to leave. We value them.
I am sure that is not the case for anyone here posting, but just in case a protestant from up north is reading this page, I wanted to make that clear.
LikeLike
Yes, Gregory Campell could stop trying to justify Bloody Sunday and he could apologise for the way unionists ran the old Londonderry Corporation.
LikeLike
Stats show 364 people of Protestant background in The Diamond ward, which includes The Fountain enclave – not quite one for every day of the year.
LikeLike
Factual,
re. “Can anyone think of any policy initiatives that could attract protestants back to the west bank of Derry? ”
Many Unionists call on SF to apologise for the violence of the past and SF rightly (in my opinion) insist that any apologies need to be set in the wider context of ‘the trroubles’. What SF should do (in my opinion) is to take responiblity for the sectarian and indisriminate elements of their campaign and recognise that conducting urban warfare against a state(Britian) is likely to result in those close to the firing line who support the British state(ie Unionists/Prods) departing in large numbers to where they would consider safer.
Any discussion about Prods departing the City side which involves SF and which does not address the realities above will look like public relations and will probably be (understandably) scorned by Unionists.
re. “We have a very severe debt problem and a severe unemployment problem and a lot of emigration. Aside from that everyhing is ok.
Is that an old Argentinian proverb?
re. Border PoIl
Would you agree that SF have not only embarassed their unfortunate representatives who have had to defend asking for something with the potential to damage their number one objective but have probably made their worst political mistake since the GFA?
Perhaps it is an example of outreach where Gerry is trying to take the heat off Robbo over the flags issue by giving Prods something to feel good about?
LikeLike
The GFA was not a mistake (not sure if you think this) and I don’t think this is a mistake. It has given some air time in Dublin for instance to discuss this. There is very little discussion of a UI in the Dublin media.
LikeLike
factual,
Perhaps didnt word that properly – I didnt mean the GFA was a mistake – but SF worst mistake since that time.
I have never known a party to thing it a good idea to publically air how little support there is for their core policy.
The southern economy is in crisis – hence the middle of the night malarkey. You dont try to enter into a debate at the worst possible moment – SF will spin some nonsense but few will buy it (not even their own supporters including myself) and they wont admit their howler but will quietly(if they have any sense) let the debate fall from public gaze).
re. Debate in Dublin.
Heard this on RTE radio yesterday. Northern Reporter “80 percent of people want to stay in UK “. RTE Interviewer: “No surprise there”.
Embarassing – SF need to get a fecking grip.
LikeLike
I think this will blow over. I think taking so long on decommissioning was probably a bigger mistake.
LikeLike
The IRA have actually given a number of apologies throughout the years for civilians caught in the fighting. I don’t how many SF have done (if you consider the two as seperate organisations) but Gerry made one recently and was scorned by the propagandistic West Brit media. What they really need is better propaganda, but I think it’s a bit late for that now, the war has ended. What we (Ireland) reeeeeaallly need is an end to sectarianism (including that on this blog) and partitionism. Those are the real problems, but it can’t be done through politics, we’ve seen their abject failure over the last 12 years. Attracting protestants to the cause and more importantly, stopping this ‘Northern Irish’ lark and attracting neutrals as much as possible to the cause (the ones who we’ve lost according to polls). I don’t know how to do this and I’m sure shiteing on about it on a blog won’t make any difference, but nonetheless.
I was thinking maybe a new party or a re-formed SDLP that would do things like support the Orange Order, erect museums to Presbyterian republicans, campaign effectively for integrated education with the Irish language and Gaelic games compulsory or noticeably present. Get rid of the tricolour and the anthem at GAA matches, start some new clubs and name them after protestants, none too unsavoury but I’m sure there’s prods who did good and stayed away from the border question. Embrace ‘protestant’ activities that are all-Ireland (rugby, cricket, etc) to be fair Marty’s doing a bit on this but it’s not enough and he’s the only one I see doing much.
For partitionism, OO parades in the south that pass off peacefully, northerners sitting in the Dáil or at least present somehow in southern decision making. If SF got into government in the south, we could see some actually movement in West Britain. Decent (and subsidised if necessary) infrastructure north-south, all-Ireland everything, competitions, companies, TV channels. How about a sitcom set in Belfast or Derry on RTE? Is that too much to ask from the so-called ‘Radió Telefís “Éireann”‘.
LikeLike
(Sorry for the double post)
But when are we going to see this? Both sides are too interested in their tribal nonsense and whataboutery. ‘Wahey boys, it’s almost 50%+1’ oh, except catholics don’t want to be part of your horrible, sectarian UI project so actually, it doesn’t matter. ‘It’s ok to be sectarian cause the huns are too’ no, it’s not ok to be sectarian because it’s wrong, apart from also being counter-productive to your supposed goals and ambitions. And they’re not huns, they’re Irishmen.
LikeLike
I believe you are the first to have used the offending term. Surely, you must respect the right of these ‘huns’ not to be Irish.
LikeLike
Fear Feirsteach,
re. whataboutery.
I dont think we(Nats) should take our standards from Unionists – nor should Nats go out on a limb in terms of admitting ‘guilt’..
What Nats and SF in particular should do is admit were there were problems in their ‘war’ strategy. The British have admitted, in a limited way, (my views on that below) that there was collusion and SF needs to admit the sectrain elements of its own campaign.
SF are actually behind where the British are (Bloody Sunaday, Finuncane enquiries) in exmaining their past – and that doesnt say a lot.
LikeLike
I believe unionists have opposed all attempts at bringing about a Truth & Reconciliation process – too much to lose I suppose.
LikeLike
That BBC opinion poll party strengths:
DUP 25.1%
SF 21.7%
SDLP 18.6%
UUP 13.2%
APNI 10.4%
LikeLike
I suspect that overstates SDLP, and understates SF. This is the first MORI poll I have seen so changes from last time are unavailable. Hopefully MORI will be employed on a regular basis for north of the border and can improve methodology going forward.
LikeLike
Shock as Factual goes out of her way to attack SDLP again. In other news the sun set today.
SF have been shocking of late, and they’re going to take a hit in the next assembly election. Wouldn’t have suspected by that much though. Can someone provide a link to this poll?
LikeLike
It is disappointing that Greens were not included in the options.
LikeLike
Hoboroad,
If that was reflected in an Assembly election, Martin McG would be first minister!
LikeLike
How so? I thought it was biggest party, not biggest party of largest designation, plus the TUV and PUP both got about 2% so that puts unionism slighty ahead anyway
LikeLike
“Following the St Andrews Agreement in October 2006, this procedure was changed to allow for:
a First Minister nominated by the largest party of the largest designation
a deputy First Minister nominated by the largest party of the second largest designation.”
That makes us both right 🙂
LikeLike
BD,
I dont think that is correct – I think there was some ‘side deal’ which the TUV gave the DUP hell over. Marty can become first minister even if there are more Unionists – will see if I can dig out a link.
LikeLike
The Westminster legislation coming from St Andrews make the FM the largest party and the DFM the second largest party, as one would expect in any coalition.
This was a change the DUP (allegedly) wanted,because they believed it would make some voters vote DUP to avoid a SF FM.
Although it was a change to the GFA, it was a move away from tribalism, because it goes on party not designation, so I think it was a positive change.
LikeLike
Or the TUV I’m sure there vote has gone up a bit since the flag flap started. If the poll overstates support for any party it has to be the UUP disunited parties usually suffer in opinion polls.
LikeLike
I see that David McWilliams has tweeted on our prom note of last nights Dail session: “Its not kicking the can down the road so much as rolling a snowball down a steep hill with a brick wall at the bottom.” Worrying!
LikeLike
“I have never known a party to think it a good idea to publically air how little support there is for their core policy.”
Spot on, Sammy. And just when there are so many other things they could be doing. This just fixes the image of SF as a single-issue nationalist party in the minds of Southern voters. I wish they would have decommissioned that gun they keep shotting themselves in the foot with.
LikeLike
Sinn Féin is a progressive labour values party; the issue of the north goes hand in hand with labour values and helping those struggling in the 26 counties on below average incomes.
LikeLike
Could you just clarify your relationship with Sinn Féin. In what capacity do you speak for the party? Are your even a member?
LikeLike
Interesting analysis of the BBC spotlight Poll by the Newsletters political correspondent. His opinion being that Alliance and the SDLP are the parties gaining most:
http://www.newsletter.co.uk/news/headlines/analysis-protestors-risk-losing-their-moment-1-4767420
LikeLike
I think it was the late Horseman who pointed out that the Alliance Party vote took a dip every five years. Something to do with the European Parliament elections.
http://ulstersdoomed.blogspot.co.uk/2009/06/who-votes-for-alliance-and-why.html
LikeLike
Would these numbers, including alliance transfers, deliver two nationalists in Europe? SDLP are the most transfer friendly and even sinn fein would get afew if they are sub quota. How would the other parties fair? Looks like they would be crucial.
LikeLike
Have a look at the numbers for yourself Charlie.
Click to access survey.pdf
LikeLike
There is a case for SF to field two candidates. WIth good balancing and an east/west split in candidates, a Belfast and a West candidate, each sweeping up votes.
LikeLike
Please do it factual. I beg you. From here until the election I plead with you to use all your powers of persuasion to convince the SF politburo to run 2 candidates….
LikeLike
Factual,
As Charlie says in his unique way, SF would be mad to run two candidates in the Euro’s. Now. Prove me wrong with the actual figures. An opinion is everyone’s entitlement but an opinion backed with facts, although maybe not right, holds a lot more weight. Where do you see sufficient votes for 2 SF candidates? Then we can discuss it
LikeLike
BD,
I know Factual is usually dizzy on drinking the Sinn Fein Koolaid when she comments here, but even this reaches a new level. Factual is so partisan that she’d actually put a safe SF seat in europe at risk. While I’d like to see two nationalists elected, and I believe with the right bounce of the ball regarding transfers it can happen, I accept that there has only ever been one elected. Therefore if we, just for a moment,take these numbers at face value: SF would be on 21.7%, well short of a quota and only 3 % better off than the SDLP. Factor in SF’s transfer repellance and SDLP’s position as the most transfer friendly party that gap narrows sharply. However if SF were still in the lead, a 2 candidate strategy, splitting the vote, would guarantee that 1st preferences of SF’s weaker candidates votes would only transfer at 75/80% to their number with about 15/20% to the SDLP and the rest dead. That scenario could actually put the SDLP into the lead.
Unfortunately, SF strategists aren’t as naive as our own energiser bunny, and will just put Martina up on her own.
LikeLike
hoboroad,
…and speaking of the late Horseman, I dont thing Ulster is looking quite as doomed as he and many of us were hoping – after the recent census and opinion poll.
LikeLike
Och Sammy,
The Census backs up every point Horseman has made.
LikeLike
Now it may be that (hopefully) Ulster is doomed but you would seem to have the same green-tinted take on the stats as Connolly House to believe that the census (or the BBC poll) indicated anything but the contrary.
This continuous optimistic statting in the face of the facts is one of the reasons Alex Maskey got slaughtered on Nolan and SF have been publically embarassing themsleves.
With the South in adminstration and less than 30% claiming an ‘Irish’ identity* in the census it was political stupidity to start a debate at this time and SF are lucky they dont have serious competition or they would have their arses kicked at the polls.
It has been a very bad few months for green demographers – and just like for SF that reality should be addressed rather than just repeating the Ulster is doomed mantra.
*the view optimistically pedalled here and elsewhere that ‘Northern Irish’ was suggestive of no-support for the Union took another battering inthe BBC poll
LikeLike
Sammy,
Unlike others here, I don’t confine myself to a particular party. Nor do I wish to lecture or insist that others accept my view. I am, I suppose, an observer. My observations on the Southern economy is that the facts support my position that it is recovering and recovering strongly and fast. The Northern Economy is in fact the basket case. Unionism has been arguing for some time that the South “can’t afford us”. A boast to be proud of indeed.
Time will tell if Horseman was right or wrong. The Census figures include children too young to vote or who may emigrate. They are trends and I have seen not an ounce of evidence to suggest they are wrong. The achievement of the last 20 years is that the children of nationalists now have a level playing field with the children of unionists. That was not always the case
LikeLike
re. “I am, I suppose, an observer”
The late great Horseman, (and there are many similarities with this site) was a self-proclaimed propagandist – and a very good one.
In light of recent events(census and polls) green demographers need to be careful they dont begin to sound like the interweb equivalent of the sandwich board man who claims that Ulster is doomed- at 10 yearly census intervals.
… and the idea that SF has in anyway advanced the Nationalist cause by forcing a debate on a UI – at the worst possible time is spin – and perhaps (almost) the equivalent of the loyalist flag protests in terms of political stupidity.
LikeLike
Of course the loyalist flag protests are predicated on the notion Ulster is doomed.
LikeLike
re. “Of course the loyalist flag protests are predicated on the notion Ulster is doomed.”
The protests are a result of Ulster being (reasonably) reformed.
LikeLike
British minority. Protestant minority. Unionist minority. SS Ulster is holed below the waterline.
LikeLike
Mixed Marriage is on at the Lyric which made me think of your stats project Dub.
If voting really is all religion/community based, which is certainly the theme on these threads how should we factor the effect of a 20% intermarriage rate in Down and Connor (vaguely Antrim & Down)? Actually these stats are 20 years old so we’re coming up on a second generation, or even three since the start of the troubles. I’d bet they may even be a good bit higher now that we’re all working and drinking together. Could some of these Northern Irish Catholics have a bit of prod in the recent bloodline? Does that maybe dilute their inborn Irish patriotism? Is there some explanation for the relative positions of Alliance east and west of Belfast?
http://cain.ulst.ac.uk/csc/reports/mixed.htm#one
“Data obtained from the Catholic Diocesan office (Robinson, 1992) reveal that, in 1991, 20% of all marriages in the Down and Connor diocese were mixed; the comparable figure for the Armagh diocese was 4% and for the Derry Diocese it was 9%. Further analysis of the 1993 Northern Ireland Social Attitude data by area of residence reveals a variation of 8.4% in Belfast, 6.2% in the East of the Province and 2.2 % in the West.”
Map for you as you’re foreign 🙂
http://www.pprce.org/current-projects/
LikeLike
Otto, this may surprise you but I am part of the demographic cohort you refer to 🙂
LikeLike
Me too Dub. Although it gets worse as in my family the prods are Dubs and the Taigs are Brits. 🙂
LikeLike
Lol, I have never claimed it was simples…
Mind you, us Dubs have never had the religious hang up, stop laughing, in fact, many of my heroes are not of the Roman faith including the poet who’s quote is the title of this blog
LikeLike
Perhaps even liberalism is sectarian here Dub? Just a smaller miscegenated sect. Liked the Coloured of Cape Town? Pampered but the votes don’t count. 😉
LikeLike
Interesting thought Otto. To my mind most political thinking can be categorised, and us humans automatically try to categorise, as Bigoted, Patronising, Self Serving or, very rarely, Principled.
You know what I mean?
LikeLike
Its true that in Dublin it is completely different from Belfast in terms of religious divisions; the protestant and catholic communities don’t have those physical or psychic barricades between them.
LikeLike
Factual.
As a Dubliner, I am not aware of any physical, cultural, economic or social barriers between any faiths or none. In fact I would be disgusted if there were.
Psychic barriers though? You have me beaten on that one.
Please expand
LikeLike
Psychic – barriers etched in the mind.
LikeLike
Ok, that’s a definition. I deduce that you must surely be female as well as a SF supporter, probably St Louis as they are, as well as Mary Lou’s almer mater, a school of the “arts”. Perhaps I am wrong
LikeLike
Its an interesting question you raise Otto. There is surprisingly little recent data on mixed marriages, and very little research on their attitudes. I gather that they are more likely tham most to be sent to integrated schools. But we know so little about them in the academic literature.
On a related theme, CSO today released figures for % of marriages that are Catholic. These are falling:90% in 1994. 69% in 2008, 68% in 2009, and 67% in 2010. Very clear downward trend.
LikeLike
Factual, the religious demographics are only a feature in the north because of their close correlation to voting trends. I look forward to that no longer being the case as indeed it is not the case in the rest of Ireland or in the wider UK context. That will be the day that politics have moved on here. Indeed I could provide many examples from history where this has been attempted, eg Jim Larkin in the early 1900s. Perhaps you are aware of the United Irishmen and Henry Joy McCracken also. Perhaps you are aware of the fact that it was Ulster Presbyterians who were the driving force behind the Irish Language movement in times past
LikeLike
What are the relvant figures for Donegal? Because if you are going to try and imply that the same is happening north of the border that would be the place to start.
LikeLike
Hi bangordub
Its my view that the trends in religious numbers in the north are not immune from trends that are happening both in GB and in the 26 counties of Ireland.
Hi Fear
I suspect that Donegal, being highly remote and rural, is not going to be entirely in step with urbanised Greater Belfast. That said it might relate to remote Tyrone etc.
In Donegal we have the following percentages (figure is % of all marriages, those that are Catholic):
2007 82.4%
2008 78.9%
2009 79.9%
2010 75.4%
For Ulster (three counties not in NI):
2007 79.1%
2008 78.0%
2009 78.9%
2010 75.0%
LikeLike
PS Donegal is always a few years behind 🙂 We in in the 26 counties as a whole are are at 67% and they are still up there at 75% despite having quite a lot of protestants. Still, the trend is in the same direction.
LikeLike
By the way bangordub there have been studies that show that 26 county protestants are most likely to support FG followed by Labour.
LikeLike
Factual.
This is exasperating. Get all three points into one post pleeeeeeease.
Plus where did you get these figures? Source them? Fair enough?
“There have been studies” just doesn’t cut it here
Plus “Donegal is always a few years behind” if a Donegal person meets you in a pub on all Ireland day they may have a word in your ear. Can you see what I am trying to tell you?
LikeLike
Figures from CSO.
LikeLike
Ok thanks,
Which figures, all of them? If they stack up it supports your argument. If it is just your opinion thats fine too. There are plenty of people with opinions but say so if it is your opinion, nobody will object although they may argue the point. Provide a link if you have one but always quote your source.
And for Gawds sake don’t patronise
LikeLike
The marriage statistics are from CSO.
LikeLike
Thanks factual, I’m actually trying to help you here, can you see my point?
LikeLike
Yes Bangordub. I will take your points on board.
I think you do a good blog here and you seem like a nice person.I find it interesting what you do,though I will hope to be able to comment on it with sometimes alternative viewpoint to your own.
LikeLike
Factual, everyone is welcome here as long as the normal rules of politeness are maintained including you, I welcome opinions other than my own as you may see from my exchanges with Sammy in particular. We all learn from having our opinions challenged in my view
LikeLike
Those figures for Cavan, Monaghan and Donegal should tell you something. As pointed out there is also a sizeable Protestant population in those counties. They are likely to be indicative of the situation in predominantly rural parts of Northern Ireland.
As for urban areas – look at the NI Census you will find: most parts of Derry are 90% plus Catholic community background but the most rapid growth of the Catholic community of all is in the greater Belfast region.
Do try and take in what others, who actually know the place, are trying to tell you.
LikeLike
Pingback: Another Poll – Fianna Fáil Voters Abandon The Fine Gael Fold | An Sionnach Fionn
“To my mind most political thinking can be categorised, and us humans automatically try to categorise, as Bigoted, Patronising, Self Serving or, very rarely, Principled. You know what I mean?”
You having a dig Dub or is that a genuine question?
Doesn’t really matter – the answers are the same
‘Bigoted’
There could be Alliance voters – especially non-NI people who vote Alliance as the least ‘Irish’ party – i.e. a party that they think has nothing to do with the local ethnic/sectarian conversation. That could be a kind of polite bigotry I suppose – depends on your view. I’ve never met anyone actually in the party remotely like that though. If anything they’re the opposite – they’re trying to reconcile stuff rather than ignore it.
‘Patronising’
People call Alliance patronising and I’m never sure whether they mean the party members, the leadership or the whole idea. John Alderdice has described the GFA as a big encounter therapy session which might sound a bit patronising if you just think the Northern Ireland institutions are your government. But John is a (retired) consultant psychiatrist so in his case there’s some consideration behind the language – it isn’t just a glib dismissal of us all as being a bit mental. And John’s very interested in the importance of respect to mental health and political stability (he’s keen on giving Hamas a voice) so he might seem a bit academic but I don’t think he’d ever intentionally be patronising.
Here’s a bit from the Journal of Applied Psychoanalytical Studies. It was made in 1992. Patronising or accurate? Eye of the beholder stuff maybe.
“Alderdice’s view is that of the psychoanalyst or therapist who is confident that the fear, and the denials of fear, are within the normal range and can be worked with:
We have taken a few steps forward and it has scared the living daylights out of everybody. So we are in a resistance, a massive community resistance at the moment. That’s why nobody’s talking. But in the bad periods of a good therapy, and of all places in Ireland where the bomb brings a fearful quiet, it is possible to hope that one day the talk will begin again”.
Click to access GLittle2009.pdf
‘Self-serving’
Absolutely. Why not? Who isn’t? A lot of Alliance voters are a mix of incomers and cross-breeds that just don’t feel they fit the designated moulds other parties seem to expect them to or that other parties are just interested in other (equally self-interested) constituencies. Alliance provided the support for Anna Lo to join our assembly. Would the unionist and nationalist designations have been able to resist the temptation to use Anna as a totem for the superiority of their constitutional preference? Alliance are more than happy to use her as a totem for an inclusive NI. Is that self-interested? Absolutely!
Same goes for integrated schools – some of us think the existing one’s don’t reflect our ethos. Are we entitled to a choice or do we just have to take what we’re given?
‘Principled’
Can they be the same thing? Is enlightened self-interest deceitful or just well adjusted?
LikeLike
Otto,
No dig intended 🙂
LikeLike
BD,
I don’t know if they had it at the time of their release or not, but on the census website they have actually reproduced the data for constituencies. While we seem to have it 99% accurate, there are some corrections:
Upper bann : 44% C 49.9 % P 0.88% O 5.14% N
Belfast West: 80.08 % C 16. 65 % P 0.58% O 2.69% N
Lagan valley: 19.02% C 71.93% P 0.99% O 8.06% N
There may be a few more that have escaped my notice. The slight variance in LV/BW might have something to do with the ward splitting. As for UB, that’s quite a noticeable change and suggests we left out a nationalist ward in our sums. 44% C seems closer as it would be a shock if UB of all places showed no rise in Catholic population. It also means greater than 3quotas. Similarly it means the Protestant population falls symbolically below 50% here too.
LikeLike
Interesting.
Since we are being very exact, in upper bann its 49.99P by the way not 49.9. If you round to one decimal place you need to say 50.0P.
🙂
LikeLike
Absolutely right, it is 49.99%. Although if your being exact, and pulling me up on being 0.09% out, then you don’t round up as that is introducing a new error :-p
LikeLike
Charlie,
Feck me you are seriously on the ball there. The constituency info wasn’t on the site at the time I posted this and I have to hold my hands up. I missed a crucial e-mail from FAHA the gist of which was:
“the ward Ballyloran in the Upper Bann data when it should have been the Ballyoran ward. Ballyloran ward is actually in Larne ( East Antrim ). Thus, the Catholic population for Upper Bann is 44%, Protestant 49.99%, Other 0.88% and None 5.14%.”
Well spotted my friend
LikeLike
Do you have a link to the constituency info?
LikeLike
I’ll e-mail the spreadsheets to you Enda
LikeLike
Still a minority, Charlie 🙂
LikeLike
An interactive map for the 2011 census.
LikeLike
Great interactive map but what were they thinking of when they chose the colours it just complicates things, west belfast yellow, east belfast purple mixed areas green or lilac wtf whats wrong with orange and green and its various shades
Can someone do something like this please
Even this map though is flawed as no religion and others conveniently get thrown into the orange category!
LikeLike
Its quite interesting that in Newry and Armagh the catholic percentage did not go up, in fact it fell ever so slightly. This constituency has grown a lot in population and I was expecting that was mainly catholic, but it seems not. I guess Danny Kennedy is safe for a while yet. Makes me wonder, if the SDLP, with a good candidate and tactical voting, might be able to win this back, now that Connor Murphy’s star has slipped a bit?
LikeLike
What on earth are you talking about?
LikeLike
Hi Fear since you ask, I’ll take the effort to reparaphrase.
Very interesting that in Newry and Armagh the proportion of the population that is catholic did not go up. I find that rather stand-out, given that the size of the population in that area went up a lot over the ten years. I had been expecting that most of that growth had been catholic, whether people moving up from the south, or due to birth rate differentials. It seems that there is no threat to the unionist quotas here in the Assembly elections.
While a few years ago Conor Murphy – the present SF incumbent – was even mentioned as a future SF leader, his stock has fallen quite a lot in recent times, for one reason or another, and a strong SDLP candidate could well grow vote share and emerge as a close rival.
Just speculating here, but in that hypothetical scenario, given the sizeable chunk of unionist voters, such a candidate in N&A could realistially hope to garner a few unionist tactical votes, leaving the tantalising prospect open of the SDLP winning the seat back, unprecendented since Joe Hendron’s famous West Belfast win back.
LikeLike
Factual,
It’s not that long since Seamus Mallon held the seat, who do you see replacing him?
LikeLike
Seamus is a hard act to replicate but the SDLP man on the ground is Dominic Bradley. So he is the most obvious person to emerge as challenger for MP.
Turning to the Assembly election in the same constituency (Newry and Armagh) I see that in the most recent Assembly election that the SDLP did fight back against SF with the following swing:
SF 18,995 (40.8%, -1.2%) 3 seats
SDLP 10,948 (23.5%, +3.8%) 1 seat
As Fear posted above the target scores are:
2 seats= 28.5%
3 seats = 42.86%
…which suggests that the SDLP’s challenge is to take just a few percent off SF’s vote.
Now. Conor Murphy will not be standing in the next assembly election (beause he has now left the Assembly for Westminster) but Dominic Bradley will. So it seems to me that the SDLP should be aiming to win a second MLA in this constituency.
LikeLike
Pingback: Statistics 2013 | "We in coming days may be"