This morning saw the release of more detailed information from the 2011 Census. It is essentially a breakdown of the previous release broken down by Local Government District (LGD).
Some very interesting figures in here and I’m rattling through the spreadsheets at the moment but below is a summary of the key points from the NISRA website:
• The Census Day population of Northern Ireland’s Local Government Districts
(LGDs) range from 17,100 in Moyle (0.9 per cent of the Northern Ireland
population of 1,810,900) to 281,000 in Belfast (15.5 per cent of the Northern
Ireland population).
• The Northern Ireland population has increased by 7 per cent since the 2001
Census. Each of the 26 LGDs in Northern Ireland has experienced population
growth in the last decade, ranging from 1 per cent in Belfast and Castlereagh to 2
21 per cent in Dungannon.
• The number of children (people aged 0-15 years) in Northern Ireland has fallen by
18,700 (5 per cent), from 398,100 in 2001 to 379,300 in 2011. This decrease in
the number of children can be seen in 19 of the 26 LGDs, with a reduction of over
10 per cent in Belfast, Castlereagh, Derry, Limavady and Strabane. Of the 7
LGDs with more children in 2011, the greatest increases were in Banbridge (11
per cent) and Dungannon (9 per cent).
• Even in LGDs where the number of children increased since 2001, the growth in
the number of children was proportionately below the growth in the overall
population. Consequently, the share of the population accounted for by children
fell in every LGD.
• By way of contrast the number of children in Northern Ireland aged 0-3 years has
increased by 10 per cent, from 90,900 in 2001 to 100,300 in 2011. The increase
in the number of children aged 0-3 years is reflected in 19 out of the 26 LGDs,
most notably in Banbridge, Dungannon and Craigavon (all with increases of 25
per cent or more). Conversely, the remaining 7 LGDs have seen reductions in the
numbers of children aged 0-3 years since 2001, most noticeably in Strabane and
Coleraine (a reduction of 9 per cent and 7 per cent respectively).
• The number of younger working age adults (people aged 16-39 years) in Northern
Ireland has increased by 2 per cent since the 2001 Census. The greatest
proportionate growth in the number of younger working age adults was observed
in the three adjacent LGDs of Cookstown (an increase of 14 per cent), Craigavon
(an increase of 14 per cent) and Dungannon (an increase of 24 per cent).
Conversely a number of LGDs, mainly around greater Belfast (excepting Belfast
LGD itself) and Derry, experienced a decline in the number of younger working
age adults, particularly in Carrickfergus (reduction of 10 per cent).
• The number of older working age adults (people aged 40-64 years) has increased
since the 2001 Census in every LGD, ranging from 10 per cent in North Down to
31 per cent in Banbridge.
• The number of people aged 65-84 has increased since the 2001 Census in every 3
LGD except Belfast (reduction of 6 per cent) with the greatest growth being in
Antrim (38 per cent).
• The number of people aged 85 years and over (85+) has increased since the
2001 Census in every LGD, with the increases ranging from 17 per cent in Belfast
to 57 per cent in Ballymoney. The number of people aged 85+ has increased by
50 per cent or more in 7 LGDs (Armagh, Ballymoney, Castlereagh, Cookstown,
Dungannon, Limavady and Magherafelt).
• North Down has the oldest age profile in that, of all the LGDs, it has the lowest
proportion of children (18 per cent) and the highest proportion of people aged 65
and over (18 per cent). Conversely, Newry & Mourne has the youngest age
profile in that, of all the LGDs, it has the highest proportion of children (24 per
cent) and one of the lowest proportions of people aged 65 and over (12 per cent).
In North Down the number of people aged 65 and over is similar to the number of
children (both 14,500), whereas in Newry & Mourne people aged 65 and over
(12,300) are out-numbered almost 2 to 1 by children (23,500).
• The number of households has increased since 2001 in every LGD, with the
proportionate increases ranging from 3 per cent in Castlereagh to 25 per cent in
Dungannon.
• Every LGD has exhibited a trend towards smaller households since 2001, with all
LGDs having more one or two person households than in 2001 and most having
fewer households containing 5 people or more.
• The number of one person households has increased since 2001 in every LGD,
with the largest increases – of 30 per cent or more – in Derry, Limavady and
Strabane.
• The number of two-people households has also increased since 2001 in every
LGD, with the largest increases in Newry & Mourne (37 per cent) and Dungannon
(32 per cent).
• The overall number of households containing 5 people or more has reduced since
2001 in 19 of the 26 LGDs, to the greatest extent in Derry and Belfast (21 per cent
and 23 per cent respectively). The number of households containing 5 people or 4
more has increased in the remaining 7 LGDs, most noticeably in Ballymoney,
Dungannon and Magherafelt (increases of 7 per cent or more).
• The average household size in 2011 ranged from 2.29 people in Belfast to 2.98
people in Magherafelt.
"We in coming days may be" 
bd,
when doth the real headcountery commenceth?
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Sammy,
I’m finally back online, The real “headcountery” will be released between Nov and March, no firm dates yet.
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Lazy feckers.
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LOl, I’m totally with you on that one
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bd,
I’m not sure if it can be expressed as a single figure but what is the average tipping point % for an assemly seat seat based on community background – and is the same for all seats e.g. 100 / 6 = 16.66?
For example where a constituency is theoretically 50-50 in demographic terms there would be (assuming equal turnout) be 3 seats Nat 3 Seats Unionist.
If we then take for example East ‘Derry which Ark cites as the “Community background” was 37.94% Catholic (11th out of 18)’ – which gives 2 Nat seats can we say statisically what % of Nat backgound is required for a 3 rd seat?
It is not just as simple as saying that when the Nat population get above 41.66 – the halfway point between 33.3 and 50 (2 and 3 seats) then Nats should get the 3rd seat?
If this were the correct calculation then East ‘Derry would need a 4% Nat population increase (other factors assumed to be fixed) before they would get the extra seat.
All the constiuencies could equally be so ranked and these latest set of Census figures could point to the Stormo election when Nats would (if ever) have a majorirty.
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Some interesting stats.
Dungannon 21% increase mainly due to immigration (I would say.
17% jump in Banbridge (popular place for communters?)
What caused the 16% increase in Ballymoney? People moving from Coleraine? Has there been large scale developments in Ballymoney town?
Also big increases in Magherafelt, Cookstown and Newry being mainly due to natural increase. These 3 areas having the largest family sizes and youngest populations.
Also increase in Antrim and Lisburn due to Belfast overspill?
The 0-3 age band is interesting. Big jumps in Dungannon as expected, Banbridge (young commuter families), N’Abbey (young families in G’Gormley/Mallusk and around Ballyclare).
Also the usual areas of Mid Ulster and Newry.
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South Derry, east Tyrone, Co Armagh, south and mid Down, Ballymoney area of Antrim and parts of the surburbs around Belfast seem to have the most vitality with young and expanding populations.
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Oakleaf,
I’m working on a direct comparison but early indications are that predominantly Unionist LGD’s are experiencing an ageing population, Nationalist areas are unquestionably younger in profile and also growing at a faster rate, particularly non urban areas. Magherafelt is an obvious example
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Sammy,
The interesting thing is that, regardless of political affiliation etc, the correlation between religious background and green/orange voting results is remarkably close. The unknown quantity going forward is the impact of immigrants. Also the increasing age profile of the population is significant.,
Your question is very interesting, I’m onto it
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What’s causing the big jump in Banbridge and Ballymoney?
I see the population in Belfast has stopped falling if only just.
Big increases in the 0-3 age band. Seems to be around Lough Neagh.
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Sammy,
I have been asked to pass on kind regards to you from Pippakin, a reader but not, alas, a frequent commenter.
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Sammy,
To answer your question on the numbers, a quota is actually 1/7 of the vote + 1. This works out at 14.28% to guarantee election. In places like Upper Bann and East Derry, nationalists are knocking on the door, but still short. In places like Fermanagh South Tyrone, Upper Bann, East Derry, South Down, and a few others, unionists are just above the quota (or just below and fortuitiously benefitting from enough transfers. Any other ward redistribution would probably benefit nationalists. One of the downsides to the almost certain collapse of coalition plans to redraw boundaries is that these anomalies would have almost certainly been ironed out.
That said, these numbers suggest that a few of those seats that are currently hitting the bar are now coming within reach anyway. Upper Bann is merely a few hundred votes away from electing a 3rd nationalist. A 3rd nationalist is a bit further away in E. Derry but a 3rd non unionist isn’t. Declan O’Loan was only a few hundred votes off beating Jim Allister, Thomas Burns about a 1000 off in south Antrim. Unionists, including the UKIP had less than 2 quotas in south down but elected 2. Lisburn has lost most of its nationalists but any growth in the city may put a nationalist back within a shout and in Strangford the SDLP are always a handful of votes away. The last time was no different. Finally north belfast is odd that despite it having a unionist plurality, it could lose a seat to alliance if their vote can overtake the ulster unionists, and if natonalists as a whole continues to grow. Interesting times ahead….
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Charlie,
thanks for that. I supose I’m counting apples in order to work out the number of oranages.
A quota represents the % of votes required to get a seat but is not reasonable to say what the theoretical tipping point for a seat is in terms of the % community background as a predictor for who will actually get the seat? (Alliance assumed to be Unionist).
For example, if we take ‘Derry – (asuming no other paries other than Nats and Unionists) Nats will become the more likley winners of the 3rd seat when their % of Nat community backround is greater than 41.66% although they actually require 35.71% in terms of actual vote share.
On that basis you can rank the constituencies by that demographic tipping point and by making % adjustment to the demogrpahic data predicit when Nats could, theoretically, overtake Unionists in terms of Stomo seats.
Reasonable, or am I fecking the laws of stats?
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Sammy,
I think you’re a little bit off with the numbers. You’re example of E. Derry says that actually nats require 35.7%. Actually both parties got 36% last time out but no one as close to being elected. Even with a few more votes it would need to be the SDLP doing better as alliance types won’t transfer to SF.
Second point, while the community background provides a good estimate start point, I no longer deal as closely as dealing in tippng points. For example, the SDLP missed a seat in Strangford by about 34 votes in 2007. The next change while removing nationalists in Carryduff, gained many from Ballynahinch. Proportionally, that was over a thousand extra supporters and yet their vote share remained static. So, until the SDLP can motivate their supporters again, I’m not so sure.
Secondly, their is prominent mismatch between community background and ote share. Take upper bann. A ‘catholic comm. background of 42.87% and Prot. comm. backg. of 54.67% consistently returns 4 unionists and 2 nationalists. In Fermanagh the reverse is true, 55.58% cath. comm. backg. and 43.05% Prot. comm. backg. and yet 3 unionists are comfortably returned an the third doesn’t look in doubt.
This suggests that either more of the catholic comm. are young and below voting age, are voting alliance, are voting unionist in cases, or are staying at home. While I the think the first point is the main reason, the others may have some effect.
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Charlie,
I’m not suggesting the theoretical green tipping point will reliably tell us exactly how many seats each camp will get – becuase there are other factors like Nat community background voters voting for Unionist politicians (including the Alliance)or the immigrants factor and realative turnout between both Nats and Unionists.
I’m simply saying that it is a theoretical % point where Nats will win seats – all other factors remaining constant and in my opinion it is worth analaysing the constituencies on that basis.
One reason for this is that if you could show whether based on the available data (current census) along with projections of demographic trends when or if a Nat Stormo majority COULD actually occur. If the overall green tipping point cannot actually be reached then relaistically there will be NO nat majority at Stormo. Seems sensible to actually work that out?
I appreciate that each constituency will have varying levels of turnout between Nats and Unionisits and as I said above some Nats will vote Alliance or for other Unionist parties – but that is why I am referring to it as a ‘theoretical’ green tipping point.
p.s. Constituencies that dont reflect, in seat terms, their ‘green tipping point’ are presumably currently targeted (e.g.like Upper Bann) to get them in line with their Nat headcount.
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Oh I think I get you now.
If I’m understanding you right, I think the best way to go is to link statistics to trends. So if x = y +5, and X = 20 in 2001, and in 2011 X = 25 then y = 30 now.
I think the best example is Antrim council. (I just posted somethng similar on EiU). In 2001 Antrim had a comm. backg. as 38.6% Cath. , 56.7% Prot.. That translated into about 59/60% unionist, 40% non-unionist. For whatever reason that’s the results. Now in 2011, unionist got 52/53% and non unionists 47%. Ignoring turnouts figures etc. for now, does that 7% difference tell us of a change in community makeup? If the census results report something like 42% catholic, 55% prot. it’ll tell us that there is still a close link and trends can still be observed. If it’s more like 44% C, 52%P then it’ll mean that a big SDLP block sat this election out as we all suspect. I’m not sure but I’ll say it’s around these figures…
When you say tipping point therefore, you would have to produce one for every constituency. I think this guideline is a good place to start.
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Oakleaf,
I have no answers in the absence of the more detailed info yet to be released. Ballymoney is closer to your neck of the woods than mine but it was always a Unionist town I think? Albeit with a 20% Nationalist minority.
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Yeah Ballymoney town is very unionist though the council still unionist has a decent size nationalist population.
You have place like Dunloy, Rasharkin, Loughguile and Cloughmills with nationalist populations.
Still quite surprised at the 16% increase mind you.
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Baby booms in unlikely places I think 🙂
Banbridge is a mystery to me at the moment. I’m trying to identify trends but from what I can see Unionist areas seem to be increasing their age profile and contracting generally. I will back this up with facts asap. I lost a few hours today due to work commitments
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The only thing I can think of regarding Banbridge is commuter town. Must have been a serious amount of house building during the boom years.
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Banbridge is changing demographically. I have no doubt that it is greening.
Oakleaf, the pattern is similar and repetetive. As an area becomes more green, it reaches a critical point and accelerates. Unionists tend to move to a more Unionist area. I don’t fully get why this is but it is a fact. It explains why Lisburn is expanding for example.
There is also a class thing at work, which explains why as Protestants age, they tend to move to better off, Unionist areas such as good old North Down.
My brain is stewed with figures now but the conclusions are undeniable, Protestant migration to Antrim and Down is accelerating.
Horsemans predictions are so far correct and Unionist Outreach rhetoric is starting to make a lot more sense, not as a political initiative but as a survival imperitave
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http://endgameinulster.blogspot.co.uk/2012/09/census-results-phase-2.html
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Thanks Hobo,
Conclusions are identical to mine so far as outlined above, I’m working on projections now
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Click to access ard-pt145-uk-and-countries-migration.pdf
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I came across UlsterDoomed just about a week back which led me here. My hope is that your blog and the late Ian’s get those from our non nationalist community to countenance that despite the ‘apoliticalness’ of many young nationalists, Ruari Og, that the quest for a United Ireland is still very much on the horizon. So hopefully a real debate will emerge in the non-cathollic consciousness of NE Ireland.
Unfortunately the nature of the devil that is Northern Ireland means that we have to count sectarian births and deaths. So I was immediately drawn to the Scandanivan rate of population increase in Derry. Now projecting from the 2001 census for 2015-16 arrived at an increase of a least 15,000 in the LGD population. I got this from subtracting the pensioners from the 0-15 youngsters and projecting the usual surplus for fifteen years ahead. eg in Culmore there are 370 catholic individuals of pensionable age and over and more than 2500 from 0-15. So this projected from 2001 to 2016 means that this one ward should increase the overall LGD OF Derry’s population by at least 2000. SHntallow West has a similiar increase – 2000 – and nearly all wards show an increase including Unionist strongholds.
My point with all this is that I’m inclined to think there must be some inaccuracy somewhere. Have over 10,000 Derry citizens moved to Donegal or was there a conspiracy among nationalists in 2001 to inflate the numbers. Or has emigration wiped out Ireland’s fourth city??? The other LGD I’m intrigued about is Ballymoney. What are the TUV AT IT LIKE RABBITTS!!!! Its a crazy game but there is evidence from the 2001 census that peripheral Unionist communities in Tyrone, Fermanagh, Armagh did have a call to arms in the 90s to increase intimacy and pursue the resulting political benefits.
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