Continuing Faha’s series on the new District Councils and the electoral possibilities, here we look in detail at one of the safest Nationalist areas.
This 5th analysis of the new district councils will cover the Derry Strabane council. This new council includes all of the current Derry and Strabane councils. The religious demographic breakdown is 72.16% Catholic 25.4% Protestant 0.64% Other and 1.8% None. In the original 7 council model the nationalist majority Limavady council was included in this council. However, the DUP transferred Limavady to the unionist majority Causeway Coast and Glens council thereby preventing the unionist population of Limavady from remaining in a nationalist majority council. The nationalist majority population of Limavady, instead of becoming part of the nationalist majority Derry Strabane council, was transferred to unionist majority Causeway Coast and Glens council.
The following shows the change in the turnout for the nationalist and unionist parties comparing the 2005 and 2011 district council elections.
For the current Strabane district council the 2005 and 2011 elections show:
#1 There was a large percentage drop in turnout between the 2005 and 2011 elections.
#2 The percentage decline in turnout was equal between the unionist and nationalist communities.
#3 Nationalist turnout is lower than unionist turnout in the rural DEA’s but higher in the urban Mourne DEA. Overall, nationalist turnout is lower than unionist turnout and 400 additional nationalist voters would have had to vote in 2011 to equal unionist turnout.
For the current Derry district council the2005 and 2011 elections show:
#1 There was a large percentage drop in turnout between the 2005 and 2011 elections.
#2 Nationalist turnout decline was greater than unionist turnout decline in the Rural and Waterside DEA’s.
#3 Nationalist turnout is high in the Cityside, Shantallow and Northland DEA’s and there was only a slight decline between the 2005 and 2011 elections.
There were no unionist candidates in the Cityside, Shantallow and Northland DEA’s so it is difficult to determine how many unionist voters voted. Comparing the Assembly vote totals with the district council vote totals seems to show a unionist turnout of less than 30% for these DEA’s but there are few unionist voters in these DEA’s.
The percentage change in the party vote between 2005 and 2011 is as follows:
In Derry council there was a steep decline in the SDLP and SF vote in all DEA’s. The decline was greater for the SDLP. The only exception was an increase in the SF vote of 564 in the Rural DEA. The SDLP voters stayed home. The SF decline appears to be votes that were lost to independent nationalists. There was also a large decline in the DUP vote, mainly in the Waterside DEA.
In Strabane DEA the SF and SDLP vote declined sharply. The SDLP decline in Mourne DEA was partly due to a former SDLP councilor who stood as an independent and the SF decline in Mourne was partly due to votes lost to a dissident republican candidate.
The new DEA’s bear some resemblance to the old ones (see map). There were minor ward changes in Derry. Waterside was expanded to include some nationalist areas further south. The major change involves the new Sperrin DEA, which includes the current Banagher ward, and most of the current Glenelly and Mourne DEA’s. . The predicted election results are based on the 2011 turnout.
The average ward electorate is 2550. The total electorate and average ward electorate for each DEA is.
The Moor: 12353 (2471)
Foyleside: 12604 (2521)
Ballyarnett: 15964 (2661)
Waterside: 18524 (2646)
Faughan: 12917 (2583)
Sperrin: 17135 (2448)
Derg: 12493 (2499)
The current Derry and Strabane district councils had the following party makeup after the 2011 elections.
SF 18 SDLP 15 Nationalist 2 Alliance 0 UUP 2
DUP 9 TUV 0 Unionist 0 Total 46
The expected party strength in the new council with the new DEA boundaries:
SF 15 SDLP 15 Nationalist 0 Alliance 0 UUP 2
DUP 8 TUV 0 Unionist 0 Total 40
The new council will have 6 fewer councilors and the net party loss would be.
SF -3 SDLP 0 Nationalist -2 UUP 0 DUP -1
In Ballyarnett, an independent nationalist could be elected instead of a 4th SDLP depending on balancing and transfers. In Waterside, the UUP is at risk of losing their seat. In 2014, the Catholic electorate would now be over 9000. If the nationalist turnout was at least 5% higher than the unionist turnout (as it was in 2005), then a 2nd SF candidate could be elected. It depends on how much effort SF is willing to expend here. The 7 seats in Sperrin are the most difficult to predict. There were 3 independent nationalist candidates in the Mourne DEA in 2011- 1 a recent SDLP councilor and 1 a dissident republican. All 3 had their base in Mourne and 2 were elected. It is unclear whether any of them will compete in 2014. Also, 40% of the new nationalist electorate is outside of the current Mourne DEA so it is likely that all 3 would poll poorly in those areas. It is also not definite that the DUP would elect 2. The unionist electorate is 26% but only 7% of that will go to the UUP. Some UUP transfers will go to the SDLP or independent nationalists. If nationalist turnout increases here, the DUP could be short 2 quotas and another nationalist candidate could be elected.
Charlie said:
Just putting electorate aside for a moment, I checked the 5 output areas moving into the waterside from the surrounding rural areas. I worked out the new areas bring in around 3600 nationalists and ~2000 unionists. That makes the waterside almost 50/50 by my reckoning. I haven’t accounted for age profile so I cannot say if there is a huge disparity there, but given that over 3 years will have passed since this data was collated, I can only see this changing further. I still think the waterside will break 4 unionists and 3 nationalists…just. But perhaps this will be the last election that this occurs. The first election on these boundaries will be very interesting indeed.
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Faha said:
I used the same 5 output areas but one of them is divided between Waterside and Faughan. I included all of it in Waterside but the rural area that is in Faughan is probably mainly Protestant judging from the data for surrounding rural areas. So there could be 100 less Protestant electorate. Also, the census underestimated the Catholic population. The recently released school census shows 2,500 more Catholics in primary school compared to the same age cohort in the 2011 census. This undercount has shown up in the school census consistently for many years now so it is not a one year anomaly. There are probably 200-300 more Catholics in the electorate than indicated in the census and with the population changes in the past 3 years the difference in the 2 electorates may only be 600-700. It all depends on the turnout. A 5% greater turnout on the nationalist side would give both SF and the SDLP 2 seats each.
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carrickally said:
Faha, could the anomoly in the school census come from families who are resident on the wrong side of the border (see what I did there?!) but send their kids to school in NI? I don’t know if that is possible or not, just a thought to attempt an explanation at a long-term inconsistency?
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Charlie said:
Sounds like a reasonable suggestion. Have no idea of the number of kids learning on this side of the border, or how many move the other way. I imagine most come up north, as there aren’t too many population centres on the southern side near the border. I used to live in a village in Co. Donegal before schooling for four different children at four different schools made it more sensible to move to Derry, but I knew plenty others who were happy with the drive in from Buncrana, Newtowncunnigham, Moville etc. I also knew a couple of people from Ballybofey who went to school in Strabane. I can see this being replicated in Newry and other border areas.
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Charlie said:
Just realised that my analysis chimes quite close to yours Re: Waterside. A lot has happened in that three years ; people I know have moved back here, sure aren’t I one of them! I also know a few Donegal people moving to the Limavady road and Summer meadows in that time for Altnagelvin hospital related work. This will be very close, close but no cigar perhaps. I agree about your point regarding Sinn Fein’s effort here. The areas I see coming in: Prehen, Ivymeade, Limavady road, Summer meadows all seem good SDLP areas while the expansion of Victoria also takes in the ever expanding Strabane Old Road electorate which is probably better for Sinn Fein. therefore I can see them being the back runner but not by much. If they believe they can make up the difference either by overhauling unionist turnout and winning a fourth nationalist seat or by outbalancing the SDLP and taking their 2nd seat they may feel this is worth the effort.
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Fear Feirsteach said:
All over here bar the shouting.
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Pingback: The 11 new district councils – projecting the 2011 votes « Slugger O'Toole
fitzjameshorse said:
Just to switch the spotlight to Strabane.
Some points to consider.
Sperrin gets a lot of SDLP votes coming in from Park and Feeny
An SDLP candidate is related to John Hume.
And McMenamin previously SDLP and now Independent is standing.but much of his core will not be enough. Thats a gene pool SDLP seat.
In Derg, there is also a gene pool SDLP seat (O’Kane) Not sure if he is standing this time but I think SDLP could easily do well there.
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Eugene said:
Get your facts correct Mc glon wrong on both counts. Mc Menamin is red hot fav to upset the odds
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fitzjameshorse said:
Your sentence doesnt make much sense does it?
“Red hot favourite”
“To Beat the Odds””
How can he be both of these things?
if you are saying that he will win a seat, it is certainly a legitimate point.
Equally the importation of SDLP votes from Park and Feeny into McMenamins base and a higher quota makes life difficult.
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