Here is the next part of Fahas series on the new Council areas. It examines the abandonment of Moyle and Limavady to a geographically limited Unionist dominated super Council. For what it’s worth I am of the opinion that 6 county councils plus Belfast is the way to go.
This 4th analysis of the new district councils will cover the Causeway Coast and Glens council. This new council includes all of the current Limavady, Coleraine, Ballymoney and Moyle district councils. The religious demographic breakdown is 54.79% Protestant, 40.21% Catholic, 0.65% Other and 4.35% None. This configuration of the council is not the original one. In the original 7 council proposal Limavady was joined with Derry in a nationalist majority council. When the Stormont Assembly was reconvened in 2007 SF supported the original 7 council proposal. The DUP was not satisfied with this proposal and devised an 11 council proposal. They saw an opportunity here and transferred the nationalist Limavady council to this new council. At the other end the nationalist Moyle council was also included. The final result was to transfer 2 nationalist controlled councils (and the unionist populations of these councils) to a new unionist majority council. SF supported the DUP proposal in the Executive and for unknown reasons declined to use their veto. The end result is that the nationalist populations of Limavady and Moyle will now be under unionist domination. This is another example of a brilliant DUP gerrymander. Limavady council more logically belongs with Derry rather than the Glens of Moyle.
The following shows the change in the turnout for the nationalist and unionist parties comparing the 2005 and 2011 district council elections:
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For the current Limavady and Coleraine district councils the 2005 and 2011 elections show:
#1 There was a large percentage drop in turnout between the 2005 and 2011 elections.
#2 The percentage decline in turnout was equal between the unionist and nationalist communities.
#3 Turnout is higher in rural areas compared to urban areas.
#4 Nationalist turnout is lower than unionist turnout in every DEA for both elections.
#5Nationalist turnout is much lower than unionist turnout in the DEA’s of Limavady Town, Coleraine Central, Coleraine East and Skerries.
# 6 An additional 3,100 nationalist voters would have had to vote in 2011 order to equal the unionist turnout.
On looking at these turnout figures my first question would be- Who is organizing the nationalist voting boycott in Coleraine town, Skerries and Limavady Town? The 2011 turnouts are what one would see with an organized boycott of the election. Overall 75% of nationalist voters stayed home in the urban Coleraine area and 2/3 in Limavady Town. In the Assembly election the quota was only 4,961. If nationalist turnout had equaled unionist turnout there would have been another 60% of a quota for an Assembly candidate. Just a short distance away in the Magherafelt DEA of Sperrin, nationalist turnout was 88% in 2005.
In the Moyle and Ballymoney councils there are some similarities and differences compared to Limavady and Coleraine.
#1 There was a large percentage drop in turnout between the 2005 and 2011 elections.
#2 The percentage decline in turnout was similar between the unionist and nationalist communities.
#3 Turnout is higher in rural areas compared to urban areas.
#4 Nationalist turnout is much lower than unionist turnout in the Ballymoney Town DEA but unionist turnout is much lower than nationalist turnout in The Glens and Ballycastle DEA’s.
The percentage change in the party vote between 2005 and 2011 is as follows:
In Limavady council the nationalist turnout has declined steeply because of a collapse in the SDLP vote and the increase in the nationalist electorate. The UUP and DUP vote are both down, except in Benbradagh DEA, where the DUP picked up votes from the 2005 UUC vote.
In Coleraine there has been a steep decline in the DUP and UUP vote. The decline in the UUP vote in Coleraine Central is misleading since the independent vote was that of David McClarty, who was deselected by the UUP. The SDLP vote collapsed despite a large increase in the nationalist electorate between 2001 and 2011.
In Moyle there was a large defection of SDLP and SF voters to independent nationalists. The DUP vote was also down here. Ballymoney Town is another example of extreme nationalist apathy as nationalist turnout was only 23%, half the unionist turnout of 46%.
The new DEA’s bear little resemblance to the old ones (see map). Benbradagh and Limavady Town have each taken half of Bellarena. Coleraine town is now all in the same DEA. The new Causeway DEA consists of Skerries, rural Coleraine East and parts of the Giants Causeway and Ballymoney areas. Ballycastle and The Glens were combined with part of Bushvale and Ballymoney Town was combined with Bann Valley. Only the Bann DEA is unchanged. The predicted election results are based on the 2011 turnout.
The current Limavady, Coleraine, Ballymoney and Moyle councils had this party makeup after the 2011 elections:
SF 13 SDLP 9 Nationalist 4 Alliance 2 UUP 6 DUP 2 TUV 15 Unionist 3
Total 68
The expected party strength in the new council with the new DEA boundaries:
SF 9 SDLP 7 Alliance 1 UUP 6 DUP 15 TUV 1
Unionist 1
Total 40
The new council will have 28 fewer councilors and the net party loss would be.
SF -4 SDLP -2 Nationalist -4 Alliance -1 UUP -6
DUP -7 TUV -2 Unionist -2
The new DEA boundaries are unfavourable to the UUP, TUV and independent nationalists and unionists. In the short term they are neutral between the nationalist and unionist parties. In the long term, in another 10 to 20 years, they are favourable to the nationalist parties. Limavady has a slight Protestant voting age population majority at 51.3% (approximately 53% unionist including some Other/None). Coleraine has a Catholic electorate of 25% (appoximately 27% nationalist including some Other/None) just short of 2 quotas (28.6%). Causeway is 20.55% Catholic (approximately 22% nationalist including some Other/None) just short of 2 quotas (25%). Ballymoney is 30.2% Catholic (approximately 32% nationalist including some Other/None). There is a potential for 4 more nationalist seats in the next 10 to 20 years. These additional seats will not occur unless the nationalist voters in these DEA’s actually start voting. It is not possible to win elections with the very low nationalist turnouts in these DEA’s. If SF ever organizes in Coleraine and Causeway they have the potential for seats in both those DEA’s. The same is true for the SDLP in the Limavady and Ballymoney DEA’s. As in the new Armagh Banbridge Craigavon council, the DUP should be congratulated for their shrewdness in devising this new unionist majority council while at the same time bringing 2 nationalist councils under unionist control.
"We in coming days may be" 
The North Coast has a sizeable middle class, plenty new developments etc. Community relations are very good within these groupings. I would genuinely say that a lot of the Catholic cohort middle class are not particularly nationalist or largely apolitical. I know that David McClarty has a decent sized Catholic support relatively speaking. When the IRA bombed and devastated the town Catholics locally made it known their disgust as a number of Catholic businesses and jobs were affected. Similarly John Dallat from SDLP has a lot of cross-community respect and I’m sure he takes Protestant votes.
I wonder does the University affect things. Do students get counted there but vote in their hometown?
The one party who has a lot of scope for growth on the North Coast is Alliance. Perhaps the most likely area for them to grow outside greater Belfast.
Outside of 2 particular limited areas and a smallish number of idiots who occasionally take the headlines(and I am stigmatizing these 2 areas), even working class relations aren’t bad; quite a number of local amateur football teams for example, are mixed. Coleraine FC has a portion of a Catholic support, always has done. Coleraine FC has also had a number of its local heros who happened to be of Catholic background who were also from the town and lived in Protestant or mixed areas. Things are a bit different up there, more relaxed and not bothered, I think it must be the sea air.
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I’d agree with alphie on the North Coast element; Ballymoney is a different kettle of fish, as is Limavady but for different reasons, in that the town is pretty well mixed but the hinterland is largely Nationalist. Perhaps Limavady rural would have belonged better with Derry super-council but the town is better suited to the more “urbane” North Coast set?
Moyle’s also a strange area to call. Very traditionally Catholic in the main but with a reasonable (and unharrassed, unlike in the border areas) Protestant population over the past 40 years.
All in all, this council is a set of strange circumstances that probably sits best together rather than tacked on elsewhere. And I say that as someone who also would have been keen on 6 counties plus a greater Belfast council
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Reality check. Gregory Campbell is MP.
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Yea, it’s not so strange for Limavady and Coleraine to be together as those towns have a lot of links. I think Causeway and Glens is quite a natural fit, tries to make the most of 2 of Northern Irelands best tourist areas. There is a hell of a lot of tourist events and attractions now in one council area and working to maximise that should be the central aim of the new council. Other councils wou;ld give their right ball to have such natural advantages already there.
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Definitely agree. From a sporting point of view, this new council will (or should) go guns blazing with the Northwest and Milk Cup, plus maximise the golfing and fishing up there.
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Not to mention the excellent Hurling tradition Carrickally?
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I would have to disagree that this represents some kind of disaster for nationalism although I could understand why people in Limavady or Moyle might feel aggrieved (hopefully this will motivate them to use their vote). I take the long term view here – starting from a base of 40% ain’t a bad position to be in.
BTW the stats you present for Limavady DEA are incorrect but that is a minor quibble in what is otherwise well-presented.
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It is a disaster for Moyle, it had been done out of Carnlough and Glenarm before and again here cutting of the south glens from their historical and cultural brothers in the middle glens, and SF has let it happen again only compounded the treachery by allowing Moyle nationalists to be buried into unionist councils to suit SF interests. I know that this is not going down well and SF may get a surprise from the Glens, which was never really SF territory anyway, being Defender territory.
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BD, no idea about the placement of either hurling or gaelic football but I have a vague understanding that Antrim (rural) is more into the former than the latter, along with western Irish counties. The rest of Ulster is more into the pig’s bladder. Would that be right?
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That would be correct! 😉
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Faha,
In Bann you have predicted 7 seats to be won in a DEA with 5 seats.
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There were a few transcription errors that occurred between my original Excel and Word documents, communications with Bangordub and the final posting. For Limavady the Catholic voting age population is 5600 ( which is 46% ). Bann DEA should be SF 1 SDLP 1 UUP 1 DUP 2. The party strength following the 2011 election in the 4 councils was:
SF 13
SDLP 9
Nationalist 4
Alliance 2
UUP 12
DUP 22
TUV 3
Unionist 3
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Just keepin you right!
I see the new council as being 15 nationalist, 23 unionist and 2 Alliance.
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You should check out the vote talk website. It’s got detailed analysis by a couple of contributors and seems pretty thorough.
They predict 15 N 22 U 2 All 1 Other
I would contend that a nationalist seat in Coleraine is very reachable in a 6 seater. Whether it came at the expense of a unionist or alliance is a different matter. If it did come from a unionist, they would be one seat away from a hung council which would be a great result. However some of the predictions may never come to fruition too.
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Have SF ever given an explanation for caving in to the DUP on the newly-drawn councils? It’s hard to disagree with Faha’s analysis that this is game set and match to the DUP. Is there a cunning plan lurking there somewhere: that living in a council area under Unionist control gives plenty of scope for provoking even the most moderate Nationalist into voting?
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The late horseman suggested exactly that about 4 years ago. And the odious pleasure of unionist domination was seen as a stick to beat nationalists into voting (SF). Having said that, in some ways if that’s the rational it doesn’t seem to be borne out in the facts. It’s generally unionist dominated where the nationalist share of the vote appears underrepresented. In nationalist councils loke Magherafelt they are turning out in droves and have made it a SF overall controlled council.
A similar argument could be said about nationalist seats at Westminster. Turnout rocketed when nationalists saw that they could win. Since mcdonnell took south belfast, more and more nationalists having been turning out no longer believing that it was a hopeless cause. Likewise if council and european elections show that the north belfast seat now has a clear nationalist majority (or at least plurality), and nationalists are made aware of it, it’ll probably drive them to vote Dodds out for good.
So my point is, it would be more believable if there seemed to be some logic behind it but the evidence suggests otherwise.
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Total number of electors in each of these DEAs would be another useful stat here. Which DEAs, based on current population trends, are likely to gain an extra seat if and when the next review takes place?
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The electoral office just released the data for the new wards earlier this week. The average ward electorate is 2400 for Causeway Coast and Glens. Only Limavady DEA (average 2204 per ward) and Coleraine DEA (average 2577) are significantly off the average. Of the 4 councils covered so far this is a factor in Armagh Banbridge Craigavon. That council average is 3427 per ward and the Armagh DEA is 3514 per ward. Lagan River DEA is has an average of only 3261. If these trends continue Armagh “should” transfer many nationalist voters to Cusher DEA, which could give SF a seat there. Lagan River DEA would expand into areas with more nationalist voters and give the SDLP a seat there. Some of the Belfast wards are already far from the average(3535). The unionist Woodvale ward has 3073 and the nationalist Lagmore ward 4267. You mentioned this problem in several of your comments last year- that the DEA’s were devised using wards that were designed in 2007 and without the availability of the new electorate which was not available until December 2013. The whole process was somewhat disorganized, with the Boundary Commission and the NIO devising the wards in 2007. After the Assembly was reconvened in 2007 first SF and then the DUP were in charge. The wards should have equal electorates (less than 1% variation) and the wards and DEA’s should be revised before the next election in 2018. Unless more stringent legislation is passed requiring all this it is unclear when the next review will occur or what the rules should be. This is something the SDLP and SF should be working on now and not leave it to the DUP to push something unfavourable through Westminster.
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Faha,
Can you forward me where you got this? To date I have been working off the provisional recommendations of Dick Mackenzie published a while ago (www.deac-ni.org/Homepage/deac_prov- recs.pdf) which have slightly different numbers to these. I’m particularly interested in your woodvale electorate number as I have written a contribution on the “northern irish councils” thread on the very useful http://www.votetalk.co.uk website. There I talk about court, differential turnout, and nationalist enclaves in the old court/greater Shankill area. However dick mackenzie’s paper has woodvale down as 3, 235. If there really is a drop in woodvale, the most homogeneously unionist ward in Belfast, then it will make my suggestion of a 3rd nationalist seat slightly more likely.
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The new wards and the electorates are from the Electoral Office of Northern Ireland. They were released March 3rd. Unfortunately the website has been down since then. I have been attempting to access it daily since but with no success.
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Have you got the numbers to hand? I’m interested in the castle and court DEAs.
In the examples you highlight and in the past (and present) homogenous areas had this problem that they could effectively make a unionist vote worth more than a nationalist vote. But in the new court DEA where differential registration and turnout could collide, it makes for an interesting result.
The new Forth River ward (most of old Glencairn) is now approximately a 24/69 split, so not a unionist lock anymore. Coupled with a low registration in woodvale (what is Shankill like?) this area is moving from snooze fest to one-to-watch.
In castle the Duncairn ward sees 5 strongly nationalist Output areas moved into it to bring the unionist share down to around 57%. I also remember reading that before Christmas (old) Duncairn had the worst registration in Belfast. I’m aware that a few unionist OAs also move into castle arou d Sunningdale but I think these changes and the rapid change in the area anyway will make this area more rather than less likely to yield a 4th nationalist seat.
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I think the process has been a shambles – no doubt there was an element of stonewalling to delay the change – and that the wards will be ripe for review by the time these councils are up and running.
Re: Lagan River DEA in ABC council. There was a late switch of wards with Banbridge DEA here – Gilford for Gransha I believe.
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Charlie,
The new ward electorates for Castle are:
Bellevue 3405
Cavehill 3269
Chichester Park 3601
Duncairn 3673
Fortwilliam 3332
Innisfayle 3666
Voting Age demographics
Catholic 51.36%
Protestant 40.42%
Other 1.35%
None 6.86%
The Catholic % is 1% higher and the Protestant % 1% lower than the old DEA so definitely a tight race for a 2nd SDLP seat. Most of the Other and some of the None are foreign nationals.
The new wards for Court are:
Ballygomartin 3912
Clonard 3560
Falls 3170
Forth River 3118
Shankill 3939
Woodvale 3073
Voting age demographics
Catholic 36.11%
Protestant 59.05%
Other 1.03%
None 3.81%
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GRMA Faha,
Do you have that detail for Oldpark DEA too?
BTW why is this thread called Bridge of Sighs?
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FF,
Oldpark electorate
Ardoyne 3381
Ballysillan 3328
Cliftonville 3507
Legoniel 3474
New Lodge 3338
Water Works 3733
Voting age electorate 2011 census new boundaries.
Catholic 63.45%
Protestant 32.65%
Other 0.77%
None 3.14%
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Faha,
Re: the website being down
Is it a cock-up or a conspiracy!?
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It has been down for 4 days now- which suggests someone may have hacked the site and/or sabotaged it.
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The site is back up and I see nothing. Only a mention that they will be published on 3rd March and can be collected at an EONI branch in person. Can someone provide me a link, if one exists, to a published pdf?
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Pingback: The 11 new district councils – projecting the 2011 votes « Slugger O'Toole
Now that the SDLP have recruited the very able margaret Anne McKillop from Cushendall will this upset the projections?
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