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By Faha
On July 4th there will be a Westminster Parliament election. In Northern Ireland there have been some significant boundary changes in some constituencies since the 2019 election.
I will examine how those boundary changes may affect the 2024 election results. I will also examine how electoral pacts among certain political parties could alter the results of the election.
Electoral pacts can take many forms. In recent Westminster by-elections in England there were informal pacts between the Labour Party and the Liberal Democrats. Voters were informally encouraged to vote for the stronger candidate in each constituency in order to defeat the Conservative candidate.
In Northern Ireland in 2019 there were informal electoral pacts among the non unionist parties. The SDLP declined to stand a candidate in North Belfast and a short time afterwards SF declined to stand a candidate in South Belfast. This was not due to any formal agreement between the 2 parties. The Green Party declined to stand in North Belfast, South Belfast, East Belfast and North Down. The purpose of these informal pacts was to defeat the DUP candidates and that strategy was successful in all of those constituencies except East Belfast. The Alliance party was unwilling to participate in these informal agreements.
The DUP currently have 8 seats in the Westminster Parliament. I will examine how an informal electoral pact among the SDLP, SF, Alliance, Green and PBP could affect the outcome in those 8 constituencies. Only one of those parties would compete in any constituency currently represented by the DUP. Because of boundary changes the results from 2019 cannot be compared exactly to 2024. However, we do have District Council election results from 2023 so party strength in the new constituency boundaries can be accurately assessed.
I will begin with the constituency of East Londonderry.
In the 2019 election the results were:
DUP 40.1%
UUP 9.2%
SF 15.6%
SDLP 15.7%
Alliance 15.1%
Aontu 4.4%
The non unionist vote was 50.7% . The constituency boundaries have changed with the addition of the nationalist ward of Eglinton (which has a high voter turnout). In the District Council election of 2023, the results were:
DUP 25.4%
Total Unionist 47.8%
Nationalist parties 41.8%
Alliance-Green 10.4%
If there was an informal electoral pact, with the SDLP the agreed upon candidate, then the SDLP candidate could receive up to 50% of the vote (assuming that a few Alliance voters may vote UUP). Gregory Campbell would be easily defeated.
Upper Bann
The new constituency boundaries have a Catholic population of 44.1% and a Protestant population of 45% (1% less Catholic compared to previous boundary)
The 2023 District Council results were:
DUP 31.3%
UUP 15.7%
TUV 3.2%
Total Unionist 50.2%
SF 30.6%
SDLP 6.7%
Alliance 12.5%
Total non Unionist 49.8%
In Upper Bann, SF would be the agreed candidate. while Alliance voters that transfer to the UUP would not back SF, the SF vote could still be 44% to 45%. The DUP vote was 41% in 2019.
Lagan Valley
There were significant boundary changes with the addition of the 90% nationalist ward of Aghagallon the most important. The Catholic population increased from 19.0% to 24.1%.
The 2023 District Council election results were:
DUP 38%
UUP 17.2%
Other Unionist 4.5%
Alliance 24.3%
Green 0.3%
SF 11.1%
SDLP 4.6%
Total non Unionist 40.3%
In this constituency Alliance would be the agreed upon candidate. The total non unionist vote is 40.3%. Jeffrey Donaldson received 43.1% in 2019. Alliance would likely win this seat. Boundary and demographic changes since 2019 would reduce the DUP vote to 40% or less. This constituency will be most affected by the Jeffrey Donaldson scandal and some DUP voters will stay home or vote UUP. I expect the DUP vote to be less than 40%.
Strangford
This is the constituency where boundary changes have changed the demographics more than any other constituency. The heavily nationalist wards of Strangford, Quoile, Drumaness and Crossgar were added the Catholic population is now 23.1%, 6% higher than the old boundaries.
The 2023 District Council election results were:
SF 9.7%
SDLP 9.2%
Other nationalist 0.4%
Alliance 21.3%
Green 1.9%
Total non Unionist 42.5%
DUP 33.9%
UUP 12.2%
TUV 4.3%
Other Unionist 7%
Total Unionist 57.5%
In this constituency Alliance would be the agreed upon candidate. The Alliance candidate could receive over 42% of the vote. The DUP received 47.2% in 2019 but with a Catholic population increase of 6% the DUP vote would decline to 42% or less. There could be a further decline if some DUP voters stay home or vote UUP. Alliance could win here.
East Belfast
The boundary changes here increased the Catholic population by 2%. In 2019, SF, SDLP and the Green party all declined to stand a candidate. The DUP received 49.2%, the UUP 5.9% and Alliance 44.9%. Since the Catholic population has increased by 2% one would expect that if the 2019 election was held under these new boundaries that the Alliance vote would increase by 2% and the DUP vote decline by 2%. So, basically the DUP and Alliance would be at 45% each. The District Council election show even more marked changes.
SF 5.4%
SDLP 2.5%
PBP 0.5%
Alliance 33.5%
Green 7.5%
Total non Unionist 49.4%
DUP 35.1%
UUP 10.3%
TUV 5.2%
Total Unionist 50.6%
The Alliance vote could be 50% with the 50% unionist vote divided between the DUP and UUP. This could be be an Alliance win in 2024.
North Down
The boundary changes resulted in minor demographic changes here. Alliance won in 2019 with 45.2% versus 37.9% for the DUP. The SDLP, SF and the Green party did not contest the election and this informal electoral pact is why Alliance won.
The District Council results in 2023 were:
Nationalist parties 2.8%
Alliance 31.1%
Green 8.7%
Total non Unionist 42.6%
DUP 22.7%
UUP 18.6%
TUV 3.9%
Other Unionist 12.3%
Total Unionist 57.4%
Since there will be 3 unionist candidates-UUP, DUP and Alex Easton, it appears that Alliance will win this seat. Alliance does have a core vote of 31% in council elections but will need some voters from nationalist parties and the Green party .
East Antrim:
Boundary changes resulted in an increase of the Catholic population of 0.5%.
The 2023 District council election results were:
SF 10.1%
Other nationalist 0.5%
Alliance 24.8%
Green 1.9%
Total non Unionist 37.3%
DUP 32.8%
UUP 18.5%
TUV 7.4%
Other Unionist 4%
The agreed candidate here would be from the Alliance party. Although the Alliance party could receive 37% or more of the vote, the DUP already has a core council vote of 32.8%. It is likely that of the 11.4% other (non UUP) unionist vote, the DUP will receive 7% to 8% of that vote which would put the DUP at 40%. It is possible that the DUP vote could be lower due to stay at home voters or defections to the UUP but it is more likely that the DUP would narrowly defeat Alliance.
At this point the informal electoral pacts clearly favour Alliance since SF, the SDLP and Green party would not compete in 5 constituencies where Alliance would be the only non unionist candidate. SF and the SDLP would only have one constituency each. So, the final 2 constituencies would be divided between SF and the SDLP.
South Antrim:
Boundary changes have decreased the Catholic population by 1%, though that decline has probably been erased by population growth since the 2021 census.
The 2023 District Council election results were:
SF 21.4%
SDLP 6.5%
Other nationalist 0.7%
Alliance 17.4%
Green 1%
Total non Unionist 47%
DUP 29.5%
UUP 16.2%
TUV 4.8%
Other Unionist 2.5%
Total Unionist 53%
The SDLP candidate would be the agreed candidate here. Although some of the Alliance vote may go to the UUP, it appears that the SDLP candidate could receive over 40% of the vote. Even if the DUP receive all the non UUP unionist vote, their total would be only 37% (it was 35.3% in 2019). This appears to be a possible victory for the SDLP and a loss of a DUP seat.
North Antrim
Boundary changes have resulted in a decline of 1% of the Protestant population and almost a 1% increase in the Catholic population.
The 2023 District council results were:
SF 21.7%
SDLP 4.6%
Other nationalist 0.9%
Alliance 9.8%
Green 0.1%
Total non unionist 37%
DUP 28.2%
UUP 14.4%
TUV 17.5%
Other Unionist 2.9%
Total Unionist 63%
SF would be the agreed upon candidate here. There are some Alliance voters that would vote UUP so the maximum SF vote is 33%. The TUV may compete here. If they did, the DUP could lose the seat and the TUV would be blamed. With the 67% unionist vote divided among the TUV, DUP and UUP, SF could theoretically win here.
I will look at one more constituency-North Belfast.
The boundary changes are significant here. One unionist ward was transferred to West Belfast and the mainly nationalist areas of the old Mallusk ward were transferred to North Belfast. The new constituency is 2.5% more Catholic and 2.4% less Protestant. In 2019, SF won with 47.1% of the vote versus 43.1% for the DUP. The 2023 District Council election results under the new boundaries were:
SF 38.1%
SDLP 9%
PBP 2.5%
Other nationalist 0.7%
Total Nationalist 50.3%
Alliance 9.9%
Green 3.9%
DUP 25.7%
UUP 5.4%
TUV 2.8%
Other Unionist 2.1%
Total Unionist 36%
The total nationalist vote was 14% higher than the total unionist vote. The SF vote exceeds the entire unionist vote by 2%. It is not possible for the DUP to win this seat in 2024. PBP and minor nationalists will not compete so the SF vote will exceed 40% at a minimum. If either the Green Party or SDLP do not compete then the SF vote will be even higher.
The main obstacle to an informal electoral pact among the non unionist parties will be the Alliance Party. In 2019, SF, the SDLP, Greens and minor non unionist parties cooperated in some constituencies in order to defeat unionist candidates. The Alliance Party was the beneficiary in North Down and almost won a seat in East Belfast. However, they were unwilling to reciprocate in other constituencies such as North Belfast.
The Alliance Party would be the main beneficiary of an informal electoral pact, with realistic chances to win additional seats in Lagan Valley, Strangford, East Belfast, and East Antrim. There was a LucidTalk poll on Westminster voting intentions a week ago. The results were:
SF 26%
SDLP 10%
Alliance 15%
DUP 20%
UUP 13%
TUV 8%
The main finding in this poll is that the DUP vote is down over 10% compared to 2019. The UUP vote is up 1.3% and the TUV vote is 8%. The TUV have an electoral pact with Reform UK and have already endorsed Alex Easton in North Down. If the TUV compete in any of the 8 constituencies where there is currently a DUP MP, then those constituencies may be lost. The strategy of the Reform UK party in England is to take away enough votes from the Conservatives to decrease the number of Conservative MPs as much as possible. This may be the same strategy in Northern Ireland agianst the DUP. The DUP vote may decline further due to other events.
Jeffrey Donaldson has a court date on July 3rd, the day before the election. Due to the nature of the accusations against him, the publicity on the day before the election could adversely affect the DUP vote.
The non unionist parties are in a strong position to defeat most or all of the DUP MPs. This will only occur if they are willing to cooperate.
"We in coming days may be" 
excellent analysis as usual from Faha.
I am not totally convinced by the conclusion “The non unionist parties are in a strong position to defeat most or all of the DUP MPs. This will only occur if they are willing to cooperate” but I can see approximately 50% of DUP seats are very, very precarious.
Needless to say I hope Faha is right and (almost)100% go elsewhere to non-Unionist parties!
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There must have been a DUP supporter (or MP!) on earlier giving just 1 star! Very interesting possibilities hypothesised.
I don’t think Alliance will agree to any type of pact, even though they’d benefit most. The good news is that they don’t have to, and Nationalist voters can ‘hold their nose’ and give a once off vote to Alliance in those constituencies.
The Donaldson scandal and the Sea Border should see many DUP votes drift to the TUV, UUP and even Alliance. Alliance will feel they can achieve at least half of their targets without any help. That will help Nationalists gain more seats that Unionists, which will be a significant boost to the campaign for a Border Poll, at a critical moment when some impetus is much needed.
No-one will want to be associated with a democratic union of (Deleted – BD), so there will be no pacts to save them.
Sinn Fein will be in no mood throw the SDLP a lifeline elsewhere, while simultaneously trying to take Foyle, so no chance of a pact there either.
Ironically, the South Antrim afterthought, could become thrilling a 4 way dead heat, with the DUP, UUP, SF and Alliance, all with a great chance of coming in around the 23 % mark.
Game on!
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Although Alliance is unlikely to agree to an informal electoral pact, SF, the SDLP, Greens and minor parties could still do so in East Derry, Upper Bann, South Antrim and North Antrim. The SDLP could still poll 40% in East Derry and with the 48% unionist vote divided between the DUP and UUP, Gregory Campbell could be defeated. SF could poll 40% in Upper Bann and with the 50% unionist vote divided between the DUP and UUP, the DUP could be defeated.
South Antrim is interesting since everyone assumes it is a DUP-UUP contest only. The unionist vote will be over 50%, so SF could not win with 23%. If there were a SF-SDLP pact, the SF vote could exceed 30% with the 52% unionist vote divided between the DUP and UUP.
If SF stood in South Antrim, then the SDLP would compete in North Antrim. With a SDLP vote over 30%, and the 63% unionist vote divided among the DUP, UUP and TUV, then the SDLP could win.
The major unknown is where the TUV-Reform UK will compete They have endorsed Alex Easton in North Down but it is not known in what other constituencies they will compete.
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I’ll have to formally eat my words.
Sinn Fein have stood down in South Belfast, East Belfast , Lagan Valley and North Down.
Hopefully, Alliance will take 3 and the SDLP the other, reducing (out of the closet) Unionism to 6 and keeping Nationalism on 9. (Though still hoping for shocks in Upper Bann, E. Derry, S. Antrim and Strangford).
Alliance will give them nothing in return, but maybe the SDLP will return the favour in North Belfast.
I suspect that SF are going on a solo run, to do whatever it takes to be the biggest Westminster Party, even if that means making unrequited gifts to other parties..
Completing the hat-trick in the Councils, Stormont and Westminster will give serious credence to their calls for a Border Poll.
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This is very good as an academic exercise, personally I do not care as I do not think it matters a jot who wins a Westminster seat except perhaps to deny funding to the DUP. I also believe that a vote for the Alliance is a vote for the Union as they are included as non nationalist by the British in the criteria for having a border poll. As a nationalist I want the nationalist VOTE to go up. It does not matter if it reflects in seats. In this scenario the best thing is to increase the nationalist vote and do not vote for a non Nationalist. , Hence the 3 clearly nationalist parties, Aontú, SDLP and SF are the only parties to vote for, unless Alliance jumps of the fence and declares a vote for them should not be considered as a call for or against a Border poll. So in this case let us be very clear. A vote for Aon, SDLP or SF is the only option.
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If the DUP lost all their seats they would be totally humiliated . With no seats in Westminster, the unionist parties would be completely demoralized and this would hasten the date for a Border Poll.
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And so it begins…………… Dup have cast the first pebble https://www.irishnews.com/news/northern-ireland/dup-willing-to-step-aside-in-fermanagh-south-tyrone-for-pro-union-candidate-ODQRPJ44KJHUNC42UAGWD73VNU/
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Of significance in that link is that both the TUV and DUP will back Alex Easton in North Down. The UUP candidate, Tim Collins, supposedly does not even reside in Northern Ireland and may poll poorly. The non UUP unionist vote in the 2023 Council elections was 39%, higher than the 31% Alliance vote. Alliance would need to have Greens, SF and SDLP to not compete here if they expect to win.
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I agree. Unionism could be completely demoralised by the DUP losing most of it’s seats, and might then begin to accept the inevitable BP & UI sooner rather than later.
Naomi Long has declared in E. Belfast, so the ‘even newer’ DUP leader could be toast there too.
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Excellent piece of business by Sinn Fein, nominating Pat Cullen to run in F-ST. That will dispel any notions the Unionists may have had of winning back the seat with lone candidate.
I still think Stephen Farry will hold N. Down. Collins will be a flop for the UUP and will not take many votes from Alliance.
It’s just a pity they didn’t run Kellie Armstrong in Strangford. The boundary changes together with the DUP’s scandals and sea border u-turn, would have provided her with a real chance of winning. i don’t think a Councillor can provide the focal point required to get the new Strangford Nationalists to vote tactically.
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The TUV have announced candidates for 13 constituencies with 2 more pending (Foyle and West Tyrone). They have endorsed Alex Easton in North Down. The only 2 constituencies they will not contest are Fermanagh-South Tyrone and Upper Bann. SF will not contest North Down, East Belfast and Lagan Valley. Alliance should now win East Belfast. Unfortunately, the SDLP and Alliance have been unwilling to cooperate with SF in these 3 constituencies as well as others. The TUV may take enough DUP voters in Lagan Valley so Alliance could win there.
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Now that the parties have declared where they will run and who they will run, what chances do you give the various incumbents of holding their seats?
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June 7th is the final day to submit nomination papers. I will wait until then
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Candidates have been finalized for all constituencies. LucidTalk is currently conducting a Westminster election poll and the results will be available June 15th. There may be results available for individual constituencies.
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SF down 2 to 29 % on the Lucid poll, but within the 2.3 % margin of error.
DUP down 3 % seems more credible and is outside the margin of error.
Underestimated in my opinion. I feel the media are downplaying the series of Sex charges and convictions against ex-ed DUP members, but it’s getting so long now, that the public must be putting it all together.
Jeffrey Donaldson – charged with historical rape, William Walker and Thomas Hogg, both convicted in relation to minors. Before them Davy Tweed (ex DUP & ex TUV) and the recording voyeur, David McConaghie.
Surely the evangelical Christians who have formed the core of the DUP’s support, as well as all right thinking, even moderately moral voters, must be looking at the DUP with opened eyes.
Or maybe the media have done enough, in quickly moving things on, so that voters can safely forget, and get back to voting as normal.
And if they can swallow that, then the DUP have got a giant Sea Border fib, to wash it down with.
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