By Faha
There was an opinion poll released by LucidTalk earlier this month.
It covered multiple issues.
One question asked was “ NI ASSEMBLY ELECTION: If an NI Assembly Election were to be held tomorrow which political party would you vote for as FIRST PREFERENCE? – Excluding Don’t Know/Undecideds “.
I will analyze these findings and comment on different aspects of the poll.
Potential voters were asked what their voter preference would be for an Assembly election. The results were weighted by “likelihood to vote”. I will compare those preferences with the actual 2019 Westminster election results.
Assembly Westminster 2019 Difference
SF 23.8% 22.7% +1.1%
SDLP 12.5% 14.8% -2.3%
PBP 2.1% 1.0% +1.1%
Aontu 1.5% 1.2% +0.3%
Alliance 15.5% 16.8% -1.3%
Green 2.5% 0.2% +2.3%
Independents 0.7% 0.2% +0.5%
UUP 11.5% 11.6% -0.1%
DUP 22.4% 30.5% -8.1%
TUV 6.4% 0.0% +6.4%
Other Unionist 1.1% 0.9% +0.2%
Voters were asked about their actual votes in the 2017 Assembly election, and of the 95% who indicated they actually voted in that election, voters preferences were almost exactly identical to the results in that election.
The 2019 Westminster results are not completely comparable to an Assembly preference since minor parties did not compete in all Westminster constituencies. Indeed, there were no TUV Westminster candidates in 2019. The differences in party preference for an Assembly election and the actual Westminster 2019 results are not statistically significant with one exception.
The DUP vote would be 8% lower in an Assembly election and the TUV vote would be 6.4% higher. It should be noted that the 6.4% preference for the TUV is more than twice their 2017 Assembly vote (2.6%).
There were some interesting results on voter preference by Religion background. The sample was listed as:
Protestant 47.3%
Catholic 37.5%
None 13.2%
Other 1.9%
For Protestant voters Assembly preference was:
Unionist 80%
Alliance-Green 14%
Nationalist 6%
For Catholic voters Assembly preference was:
Unionist 1%
Alliance-Green 15%
Nationalist 84 %
For No Religion voters Assembly preference was:
Unionist 17%
Alliance-Green 36%
Nationalist 42%
If one looks at voter preference in polls prior to Brexit only 1% of Catholics would vote for a unionist party and only 1% of Protestants would vote for a nationalist party. While 1% of Catholics still prefer a unionist party the percentage of Protestants who would vote for a nationalist party (mainly SDLP) has increased to 6%. Protestant voters now account for more than 15% of the total SDLP vote.
Another change is that prior to Brexit No Religion voters generally voted 40% unionist, 40% Alliance-Green and 20% nationalist. That voter group has changed dramatically with only 17% willing to vote unionist. That voter group now has a 29% SF preference.
What are the implications for a 2022 Assembly election?
I wish to point out that the demographics of Religion in this poll has a higher proportion of Protestants and a lower proportion of Catholics. We will not know the results of the 2021 census until 2022. However, it is possible to extrapolate from the 2011 census. We know that all those aged 9 to 17 are now old enough to vote. We also know the number of deaths since that census (mainly elderly voters). It appears that the current voting age population is approximately
14% No Religion/Other
44% Protestant
42% Catholic
The total unionist vote was 43% in the 2019 Westminster election. With the 2022 voting age demographics it may be only 40%. This is not only due to demographic changes but also to the significant increase in Protestants who are voting for Alliance, Green and nationalist parties.
The collapse in support for unionist parties among those voters with No Religion is also contributing significantly to the decline of the unionist vote.
To illustrate the implications of these changes in voter preference I will look at the vote in several constituencies in the 2019 Westminster election. For an Assembly election 1 quota is 16.6% and 2 quotas are 33.3%
Strangford
DUP 47.2%
UUP 10.7%
Other Unionist 4.7%
Alliance 28.4%
Green 2.1%
SDLP 5.3%
SF 1.5%
Alliance has 28.4%. The combined Green, SDLP, SF vote is 9% so a 2nd Alliance candidate would easily be elected on their transfers with a net loss of one unionist seat.
East Antrim
DUP 45.3%
UUP 14.7%
Conservative 2.8%
Alliance 27.3%
Green 1.8%
SDLP 2.4%
SF 5.7%
The Alliance vote is 27.3%. The combined Green, SDLP and SF vote is 10% so a 2nd Alliance candidate would easily be elected with their transfers with a net loss on one unionist seat.
North Antrim
DUP 47.4%
UUP 18.5%
Unionist 0.6%
Alliance 14.1%
SDLP 6.7%
SF 12.8%
The combined Alliance, SDLP, SF vote is 33.6% and the SDLP candidate would be eliminated and their transfers would elect a SF and Alliance candidate with a net loss of one unionist seat.
East (London)Derry
DUP 40.1%
UUP 9.2%
Alliance 15.1%
SDLP 15.7%
SF 15.6%
Aontu 4.4%
The SDLP and SF are only 1% short of a quota but would receive some Aontu transfers so would each elect one. Alliance is an unlikely source for the remaining 2.4% of Aontu transfers but could receive some in tactical transfers. Alliance would certainly receive enough UUP transfers to reach the quota. There would be a net loss of one unionist seat.
Foyle
DUP 10.1%
UUP 2.3%
Alliance 2.7%
SDLP 57%
SF 20.7%
PBP 2.8%
Aontu 4.3%
The combine unionist vote is 4.2% less than a quota so there would be a loss of the DUP seat.
Upper Bann
DUP 41%
UUP 12.4%
Alliance 12.9%
SDLP 9.2%
SF 24.6%
There were 3,350 more unionist votes than Alliance-SDLP-SF votes. However, there are 7,500 EU nationals on the electoral register here that were not permitted to vote in the Westminster election. If half vote in an Assembly election then the unionist vote would be less than 50%. There would also be some UUP transfers to Alliance so an Alliance candidate could be elected with a net loss of one unionist seat.
East Belfast
DUP 49.2%
UUP 5.9%
Alliance 44.9%
Alliance would receive some UUP transfers. Whether the 3rd unionist seat would be lost will depend on how many of the 2,400 SF and SDLP voters who voted in the Assembly election but may not have voted in the Westminster election will narrow the gap. There are also 2,400 EU nationals on the electorate here.
North Down
DUP 37.9%
UUP 12.1%
Conservative 4.8%
Alliance 45.2%
A 3rd non unionist seat is further away here. However, if the UUP vote declines further the UUP candidate could be eliminated and a 3rd non unionist could be elected on UUP transfers.
Overall, the 2019 Westminster results and the results of the LucidTalk poll indicate a loss of 5 unionist seats in an Assembly election with a possible loss of up to 8 seats.
Alliance would be the main beneficiary of those losses.
Muiris said:
BD you had me excited for a moment (about the breath of your historical perspective) you mean the 2022 election implications
LikeLiked by 1 person
bangordub said:
You’re quite right Muiris and quick as well.
I corrected it to 2022 within a minute of publication but well spotted
LikeLike
M said:
It’s my aging eyes, I’m sure that I saw ‘1922 election implications’
LikeLiked by 1 person
bangordub said:
As I admit above M, you saw it correctly !
LikeLike
Muiris said:
Grma BD, you had me spooked
LikeLiked by 1 person
Paulie Mac said:
If 6% self idenifying Protestants are supporting SDLP the party should be challenging for seats in East Belfast and Strangford with high profile, dynamic candidates instead of leaving it to Alliance to sweep up non-unionist voters.
Also seems there should be enough from nationalist background for SDLP to win a seat in South Antrim.
LikeLike
Gaygael said:
I think you are being hugely optimistic to believe that the big losses at a next Assembly election will be from Unionism.
Unionism lost 16 seats when the assembly seats reduced from 6 to 5. The precarious seats across the board are those 3rd SF seats. That’s West Tyrone, FST, Mid-Ulster, N&A in some danger for SF.
Also, in 2017, Alliance missed taking seats from SF in North Belfast and South Down by under 600 votes.
If I was a SF strategist I would also be keeping an eye out on North Antrim and South Antrim as potential risks.
The only places I think Unionism is in danger of losing seats are; Stangford, East Antrim, East Belfast and Foyle. Upper Bann is very outside with the perfect confluence seeing an SF/SDLP/ALL each elected.
As a rough shout based on 2019 polling and before the recent Luci Talk i had these ballparks;
Sf – 6 no gains = 21. Losing 6 of NA, N&A, FST, WT, NB, SD, WB, SA, MU. Can;t see any gains on horizon at this point.
Sdlp -1 but gain 3 = 14. Losing LV but some gains amongst FST, Strang, WB or SA.
NATS = 35
All – no losses as many as + 8 but more likely 6 = 14. Gains in NB, SD, NA, N&A, WT, EA, MU and ED.
GP no losses +1 = 3. Most likely gain is East Belfast with good shouts in NB, Strang, LV but unlikely to get ahead of the alliance runners to be in the frame.
PBP no change = 1. May come close in Foyle but without Eamon McCann I just can’t see a breakthrough. Decent vote in NB and would benefit from SF disaffected voters
OTHERS = 18.
UUP -2 no gains = 8. Likely loses in EA, EB and could be in trouble in ND. No likely gains anywhere.
DUP -2 no gains = 27. Can’t see any gains. Likely losses in Strangford with Foyle or maybe UB being the other loss.
Ind U no change = 1. Think Sugden will hold her seat.
TUV – Hold in NA = 1. No other likely gains.
UNIONISTS = 37.
Very early punts from me.
LikeLike
PaulG said:
A lot of wishful thinking there.
SF will probably hold all of those 9 seats.
The Alliance surge (if it lasts) will not impact the final result in rural constituencies or WB where those 3rd and 4th SF seats are relatively safe.
BDub is correct in predicting that the impact of the Alliance surge, will be in the Eastern suburban constituences where Unionists seats will fall to Alliance.
Similarly SF seats are safe in NA & SA where there is definitely a Nationalist seat in each and SF heavily outpolls the SDLP.
Good to see you think you’re in with a good shout in NB. Over confidence never hurt any candidate, – no matter how delusional.
LikeLike
Gaygael said:
I don’t see how you can describe alliance making huge gains as wishful thinking from me…..Wishful thinking would see 18 green seats! Not yellow ones.
I suppose we can revisit this in May 22 and see who was closer. You have pegged SF not losing any seats. Fair enough but I don’t see any evidence of that. That would mean holding or increasing their vote from 2017 and being impervious to any others doing well. I expect that the Sinn Fein strategists I know will be more inclined (privately) to my thinking than yours.
As for NB I’m pretty sure you told me the same about a council campaign and any optimism for it yet here we are.
LikeLike
PaulG said:
I detect a bias against SF, which is common amongst the centrist and self styled progressive brigade. The fact that the SDLP, are as likely if not moreso than SF, to lose a seat in SD, backs that up.
I suspect you would count a gain for Alliance over SF (or DUP) as a positive development, in the absence of a Green win.
SF may hold their vote, but even if they slip, I think you’ll find that they are very effective in concentrating resources where required to hold seats, at the expense of unproductive votes elsewhere.
SF voters don’t switch to Alliance. If anything they’d switch to PBP or the SDLP. If Alliance take more CNR votes, it will be from the SDLP. The SDLP must therefore steal some Alliance clothes to block that or steal some SF clothes to make up for the losses to Alliance.
Centrist (so called non-sectarian) parties, will as ever, attempt to get enough votes to be available to offer the highly sectarian option of taking transfers to stop one of ‘themuns’ being elected, which can then masquerade as a victory for progressives or anti-sectarianism, – until the demographics move on and the middle man becomes surplus to requirements.
That is the best that Alliance can hope for West of the Bann.
I did tell you something similar before the council election and you beat the odds and proved me wrong. Congratulations and well done.
However, it’s a much bigger challenge to get an Assembly seat, particularly in such a bitterly contested constituency. On the plus side, Environmental issues will become increasingly important and the well healed residents of the leafy suburbs will be only too happy to find a ‘right on’ home for the ballot that they’re civicly obliged to cast.
Against that, your working class part of your base cannot afford the luxury of Green policies and frankly have more pressing issues. The novelty wave of identity politics is passing and the Rainbow flag will have been found not to be any more nourishing than any other.
Alliance have a very strong Candidate in the Constituency (and a popular Leader) who will be extremely hard to get ahead of before elimination. The fact that she is also from the Catholic community means you can’t even rely on a bit of soft sectarianism to keep ahead of eliminations, in the hope of catching up.
I think you have two hopes there – and ‘none’ is the better one!
LikeLike
PaulG said:
I wonder if the DUP would have agreed to more effective measures sooner, if it wasn’t mostly Catholic areas which were affected.
Maybe Poots and co. see Covid, as Gods gift to answer their Demographic prayers.
LikeLike
Feckitt said:
Hello Bangordub,
I don’t know if you seen this, but earlier this year NISRA released their 2019 school leavers report.
Click to access Qualifications%20and%20destinations%20of%20Northern%20Ireland%20school%20leavers%202018-….pdf
Of Particular interest is Table 21 which highlights the religion of school leavers goring to Higher Education, and how many stay in NI and how many go to Britain or elsewhere.
Firstly the total number of school leavers in 2019 going to higher education are as follows,
Catholic – 4990 -55.0%
Protestant – 3073 – 33.9%
None/Other – 1004 – 11.1%
The total number of school leavers in 2019 who went to higher education in Northern Ireland was as follows
Catholic – 3871 – 59.4%
Protestant – 2076 – 31.9%
None/Other = 568 – 8.7%
As you can see, the figures speak for themselves, and obviously will have great demographic and political consequences which I know will be of interest to you.
Athbhliain faoi mhaise duit
LikeLike
Antain Mac Lochlainn (@AntainMac) said:
Here we go again, another Westminster constituency review. A good chance the DUP won’t have it all their way this time, now that the special relationship has gone bad. https://www.irishnews.com/news/northernirelandnews/2021/01/05/news/number-of-westminster-constituencies-in-the-north-to-remain-at-18-2178305/
LikeLike
PaulG said:
Sunday Times:
Majority for UI referendum, with 47-42 UvN & 11 undecided.
Majority of Scots for Independence.
2:1 UK majority think Scotland is as good as gone.
https://www.rte.ie/news/ireland/2021/0124/1191682-uk-polls-northern-ireland-scotland-independence/
LikeLike
Paul G said:
Game Changer on Lucid talk/BelTel poll:
SF 24 %
DUP 19 %
AP 18 %
SDLP 13 %
UUP 12 %
TUV 10 %
If TUV convert those votes into seats, the DUP will finish second in seats and SF will have 1st minister.
Can Unionists live with that or will they pull Stormont down?
Are we about to see belligerent Unionism withdraw from the democratic process altogether, now that the NI Gerrymander is coming undone, and revert to their Orange Ace in the hole.
Now we’ll see why they’ve been keeping the UDA and UVF sweet.
‘Workers Strikes’ don’t need a ballot when they’ve got all the guns.
LikeLiked by 2 people
hoboroad said:
Q. Northern Ireland celebrates its centenary in 2021. Do you think NI will be part of the UK in 30 years?
No: 54%
Yes: 34%
Unsure: 12%
January 22-25, 2021
Sample – 2,295
LikeLike
PaulG said:
I expect that 34 % are hoping to be dead before they have to think too hard about it.
In 30 years, it will probably be the United Kingdom of Sussex, East Anglia and the Isle of Wight !
LikeLike
Feckitt said:
No word from Bangordub on here or Twitter for some considerable time,
Hope you are ok!
Would be good to see you back soon.
LikeLike
bangordub said:
Hiya,
Yes I’ve been offline for a couple of months due to a close family member being very unwell. She is now recovering well thankfully.
I’ll be working today on a new blog which I hope to post in the next few hours
BD
LikeLike