The premise for this blog was always to build upon the work of Horseman in his relentlessly logical and fact filled, but beautifully titled blog, Ulsters Doomed.
Little did I suspect when I began this blog, that his predictions would become so acute and so prescient so fast.
I have always been thinking towards a date of mid 2021-22. I was wrong, the time is now.
As so often in history, moments, or events, can change things faster than anticipated. In the circumstances of Ireland that is no surprise to those of us who are keen students of our past in order to better understand and shape our future. Examples abound across our history from the wars for an English crown in the 1690’s through to the struggles for civil rights in the 1960’s and much else before and after.
Today, the catalyst for change in Ireland is the brexit calamity but the central dynamic for the reunification of the island is, and has, remained constant since the enforced partition of Ireland by the Government of David lloyd George under the threat of “immediate and terrible War” in 1921.
The Brexit debacle has merely focussed minds.
As Edward Carson observed in 1922 “I was only a puppet, and so was Ulster, and so was Ireland, in the political game that was to get the Conservative Party into power.”
These days, the DUP have walked straight into that bear trap. They are now little more than the “paramonetary” wing of the brexiteer wing, of the conservative Party. It is a short sighted tactic which makes no strategic sense whatsoever.
The path ahead is now, in the short term, dependent upon the middle grounders. Those who don’t have a strong idealogical leaning towards the reunification of the island and those who are ambiguous regarding continuation of the link with the UK.
Brexit has decisively shifted the balance amongst this group.
The case for reunification has thus taken a decisive turn and I anticipate a border poll within the next 3 years.
To paraphrase the words of Horseman, Ulster (As it is defined by political unionism) is doomed.
"We in coming days may be" 
Demographics would point to the inevitable conclusion that unification will happen. I believe we are at least 50 years away. In the meantime I would like to see Fianna Fáil and FIne Gael come North, we really need to freshen it up and the introduction of these parties would hopefully stir the nationalist electorate. I would also like to see the SDLP amalgamating with one of these southern parties. I am a Sinn Féin supporter so really cannot speak for the views of the SDLP voters but cannot abide partitionist attitudes. If the SDLP are truly nationalist then they need to be all Ireland.
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Wow 50 years is a long time. I’d back David McWillams around mid 2030s if I remember correctly.
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There are decades when nothing happens, and there are weeks, when decades happen’ Vladimir Lenin
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tipping point fast approaching for PM may’s Conservative government and Brexit. And
consequently the DUP. Expect nothing good for any of them
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Yes, the referendum that we actually win, will probably be about 15 years away.
If there’s one in 3 years and events conspired to give us a win, UI would not be any closer, as the Southern population do not want to take in the violent Sectarian Loyalist Spongers, who would threaten war against being ‘forced’ in anyway.
Re-partioning, although unfashionable, would then have to be considered (maybe smart to do it first, instead of forcing a UI followed by Loyalist revolt and ethnic cleansing of Catholics and then ending up with re-partition anyway, but with an enlarged Orange area, as per the UDA’s Doomsday plan ).
More practically, the Southern electorate will need time to come to terms with accepting the whole of NI including Loyalist sectarian shitholes like Portadown and Larne and that will be conditional on the Loyalist population largely signalling a willingness to join a United Ireland.
Brexit and other economic factors will help facilitate that, but we are soon coming to the point where a UI majority is a given, in which case the emphasis will need to shift from confrontational politics (which has helped to keep Nationalist Gaelic identity and aspirations relevant), to a more encompassing position which will reassure Protestants and Loyalists that their interests will be well served and protected in the New state.
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Yes, I’m sure the inhabitants of “Loyalist shitholes like Portadown and Larne,” will be really reassured that they will be warmly welcomed and protected in the new state. Er, not!! I’m never sure why the latter town is always a target for such sneering condemnation as it suffered virtually no incidents during the “troubles” and has always had quite a high level of mixed marriages.
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I am actually good friends with a native of Larne, I’m not in favour of such language being used to demonise an entire town either and not having lived there I would ask PaulG to qualify and reconsider his remark. Same goes for Portadown obviously. I do agree that both towns have something of an image problem though
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Willie,
I note you take issue with the description of the 2 sample towns. As I trust that it’s not a deliberate distraction from the substantive points raised, i shall address it.
Despite the relatively few murders, Larne is still synonymous with sectarianism, even to some Southerners. The phrase ‘keep your head as low as a Larne Catholic’ was not created without reason. Accounts of the treatment of Fr. Pat Buckley during his time as an elected Councillor there, when no other Catholics would stand, despite making up 30 % of the towns population, reveal a deep seated, primitive and menacing sectarianism.
Attacks on Catholics increased dramatically towards the end of the troubles when SF began to provide political representation and some even dared to fly the Tricolour from their homes.
More recently the convicted Larne Catholic British Soldier /Dissident bomb maker, began his journey as a teenager following a vicious Loyalist beating.
Portadown as the base for LVF and UVF/UDR /RUC/MI5 murder gangs and Orange supremacists and their Obins St and then Drumcree antics, needs no explanation.
‘Shithole’ refers to either or both the appearance/amenity/opportunity of the towns or as descriptive aid to the violent and bigoted sectarianism within them.
The description is subjective, particularly to the former, however those south of the 9 Ulster counties generally regard planter towns a very unattractive, to put it mildly.
In conversation, they are often described to me by Dubliners, as Shitholes and worse.
Partly, I believe, due their appearance, partly due to the sectarian and religious fundamentalism within them.
Portadown deserves no apology. I accept that Larne is not the second most sectarian place in NI (though it certainly has a case to answer), but I also selected it because many Southerners will vaguely know it, having passed through it to Scotland and also because it gives an idea of the range of towns that I believe will form the block of resistance to another seismic democratic electoral defeat.
The use of the word ‘Shithole’ is important and necessary to the point I was making, as it accurately conveys the attitude and comments of many Southerners towards Loyalist towns and Estates. It may well be condescending and sneering but that is the truth of how they see it.
Incidentally, Northern Nationalists aren’t viewed much better and would be doing well to get an invite to the party for themselves, let alone one for their bolshy sparring partner as well.
As for reassuring those towns inhabitants that they will be ‘warmly welcomed’, – they are your words not mine. Your rather ‘smartypants’ judgement, ‘Er not!!’, therefore applies only to your own wording.
I wouldn’t expect many P’s,U’s or L’s to be soft-soaped by Mary Lou or Leo’s all inclusive, open and transparent, multi-cultural, multi-faith, respect driven, politically correct, massaging invitation to a UI.
They will decide on the cold hard numbers. What’s in their their best interest of their interests and assets.
If they think they’ll lose out, they’ll tear a new border through the land and if England, won’t have them, an Independent Scotland might get the dreaded ‘5 O’Clock knock’ on the door.
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I suppose the wider point I was making re the “shithole” characterisation of towns like Larne and Portadown was that it best to avoid crude stereotyping when referring to any location or its inhabitants. I would say very few southerners, or Dubliners, have visited either place, partly I would imagine because they are always portrayed in such a negative manner, usually by people who have never visited them, or met anyone from them and frequently by people who come from areas with a greater record of sectarian murder and strife. I’ve never been to Portadown, but would imagine that most of its natives are normal, decent people, despite the behaviour of a minority who made no positive contribution to our society during the “troubles”. Being from Co. Antrim, I know more about Larne and would characterise most of its people in the same manner, with even less being involved in reprehensible behaviour. I’ve worked all over N.I. and being from a unionist background have frequently challenged those who would refer in a similar disparaging manner to predominantly nationalist towns or areas. I judge people by their behaviour and content of their character, not on the basis of crude ethno-religious stereotyping.
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Indeed Willie,
I wouldn’t argue with you there. Most of the people of Portadown are probably as decent as any and everyone is entitled to be taken as an individual first and foremost, regardless.
It doesn’t take anything like a majority of a district or group to deviate from the norm, to give that district or group a distinctive identity, good or bad, whether the majority like it or not. The ‘Bandit Country’ of S. Armagh for example, had a majority of SDLP voters during the Troubles.
It falls to the majority to then make their voices heard above the others. Hard to do when the others have guns of course.
Did the decent people of Portadown do enough when Billy Wright was swinging teenage girls around by the hair before blowing their brains out? Or when the RUC laughed from their Landrovers at Robert Hamill’s friends while they watched Loyalists beat him to death?
I guess when there’s a history of the police in the area, putting on balaclavas and murdering people at night and then turning up in uniform the next morning to ‘investigate’ their own crimes, one would need to be pretty brave to take them on, even if their on your side.
Perhaps I’ve done a disservice to the people of Portadown. Perhaps it ‘s not that it’s naturally any more violently sectarian than other places, perhaps it’s just had the misfortune to have a substantial number of corrupt and murderous police and army intelligence stationed there, pouring petrol on the flames.
You are of course entirely correct, that we shouldn’t label places in a derogatory or sneering way.
In this instance, I felt it was necessary to ignore that guide, because I perceive that most of those who are counting down the demographic swing to a UI, incorrectly assume that the Southern electorate are eagerly standing by, waiting to rubber stamp it. Using the actual word most often used to me, by the sample of those Southern voters was important in conveying the depth of feeling against accepting in belligerent and threatening parts of NI.
Southerners will need to be convinced if not cajoled into a United Ireland. Expect them to view a Northern application with a sceptical eye, much like a school teacher listening to two children caught fighting, then promising to be good as gold and be best buds, if they can only still go on the school trip.
Patronising on top of sneering, I know, but hey, you can’t blame them, they’re only human too.
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This article in the Bel Tel (which was referenced by Brian Feeney last week) makes for interesting reading.
Essentially the budget to administer Northern Ireland has been reduced by £700m over 7-8 years. No political or administrative reforms can adequately redress this loss of funds therefore it is inevitable that public services will not improve. The DUP’s £1bn will offer merely temporary relief.
It is going to be an increasingly difficult argument for Unionism to advance to the middle that Northern Ireland is best served in the Union if key services are left to gutter.
https://m.belfasttelegraph.co.uk/opinion/northern-ireland-blackout-too-simplistic-to-blame-stormont-for-public-service-woe-36505488.html
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https://www.google.co.uk/amp/s/www.buzzfeed.com/amphtml/albertonardelli/the-governments-own-brexit-analysis-says-the-uk-will-be
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Taken from Jude Collins blog:
But here’s what is perhaps the most significant feature of all in the report. Between 1990 and 2016, the Protestant proportion of the population who are 16 years of age or over has dropped from 56% to 44%. Over the same period Catholics went from 28% in 1990 to 42% two years ago.
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The 28% figure in 1990 for the Catholic population seems very low.
It would imply about 27 % of voting age, which doesn’t tally with election results.
I wonder if that’s based on the working population population rather than the whole population? If it is, then the 42 % figure for now, would be very significant in terms of Fair Employment.
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